Lucky 13: Postseason Pie Part Deux

When Chone Figgins singled home the go-ahead run in the top of the 11th inning, I was pretty sure the Yankees would be heading to Anaheim tied 1-1. You'd figure the walk-off magic had to wear off at some point. The invincibility could only last so long, right? It had been a long night with little scoring and a cold, steady rain was beginning to fall.

When A-Rod led off the bottom of the 11th and promptly found himself in a 0-2 count against Brian Fuentes, the outlook appeared even more grim. Freddy Guzman and Brett Gardner were the next two Yankees on deck and only one could have been pinch hit for - by Jerry Hairston Jr. or Francisco Cervelli if the Yanks were really desperate.

But Fuentes left a fastball in the middle of the plate and A-Rod served it over the right field wall, just out of the reach of a jumping Bobby Abreu. The game was tied again and hope was restored.

It took two more innings, three more Yankee pitchers and a terrible decision by Macier Izturis before Jerry Hairston crossed the plate and won the game for the Yanks, but the Yanks would not be denied.

Too much went on during this 13 inning marathon to do a blow by blow recap, so let's head for the bullet points:

• A.J. Burnett was solid, with the exception of the 5th inning. He loaded the bases and via a single, walk and HBP and uncorked a wild pitch, but buckled down and didn't give up the lead. All told, he went 6 1/3, gave up 3 hits, struck out 4, walked 2 and allowed 2 runs.
  
  
• Joe Saunders did give up a home run, but largely stifled the Yanks otherwise, holding them to 2 runs of 7 IP and striking out 5 while walking just 1.
  
  
• The Yankees are now 17-0 this season when tied after 7 innings (including Game 2 of the ALDS). And that's not just at home. The team has continued to defy the odds over and over again, and the snowballing confidence has become a real asset. You could hear it in the post game comments. They've had an uncanny knack for coming away with the win under any circumstances or conditions or against any closer. Call it what you will - luck, magic, mojo, juju, never-say-die attitude, destiny, aura, positivity, good karma, clutchiferousness, God; the stuff that the best teams always have working for them (at least in retrospect) - it's certainly been on their side so far.
  
  
• Both teams fared miserably with runners in scoring position, combining to leave 30 men on base. The Yankees were 0-8 w/RISP, scoring their runs on two solo homers and an error while the Angels were 3-15 and with only 2 RBI. (The other run came on the WP by Burnett.
  
  
• Robinson Cano drove in a run with a triple in the second inning, but made some really big mistake which nearly sank the Yankees' chances from there on out. He rapped into a double play, erasing a lead off single in the 7th inning and made two errors on routine balls but was thankfully bailed out by his pitchers each time. The Yanks had no errors in the previous 4 games this postseason but had 3 tonight.
  
  
• Similarly, Derek Jeter homered in the third inning, but hit into a twin killing of his own and muffed a potential double play ball in the field.
  
  
• Joe Girardi asked Mariano Rivera for 2 1/3 innings, the most in an appearance since Game 7 of the 2003 ALCS. Mo was as brilliant as ever, needing only 25 pitches to sit down 7 batters.
  
  
• Alfredo Aceves was the one who gave up the single to Chone Figgins in the 11th, the only one of the 7 relievers the Angels got to.
  
  
• A-Rod's homer was only the 3rd game-tying extra inning HR in postseason history. That's nearly unbelievable at first blush, but if you consider that only the home team can tie the game in extras, it's merely incredible.
  
  
• After Girardi used three pitchers in the 12th inning of a still-tied game, the only man remaining in the bullpen was Chad Gaudin. With the threat of a postponement still looming, it could have been costly to use four of his pitchers for less than one inning (Coke, Joba, Hughes and Marte). Girardi kept firing bullets and luckily, the offense bailed him out before the chamber was empty. And since Nick Siwsher was lifted for a pinch runner in the 7th, it would have been really empty.
  
  
• The decision by Macier Izturis to go to second base on the last play of the game was real, real bad. You've gotta take the sure out there. The Angels has almost no chance of turning two and getting the force at second would have done them essentially no good with the winning run already on third.
  
  
• Last night's game was only the 5th postseason game ever to end on an error.
  
  
• And lastly, meteorologists get a lot of flak for getting things wrong all the time, and usually I refrain from piling on, but this weekend is an exception. FAIL. We were told over and over again that rain would wreak havoc over one or both of these games but neither was so much as delayed. I understand it's not an exact science, there's gotta be some accountability.

The Yanks now lead the series 2-0 and will head for better weather out in Anaheim. The swing between 1-1 and 2-0 is huge because if the Yanks has lost this game, they would have gave up homefield advantage and shortened the series to 5 games.

It's late and that's all I've got for now. Chances are we will have some more thoughts about this game tomorrow today, so check back before football fires up.

Great win. Goodnight.

ALCS Game 2: Gambler's Roll

Weather permitting, the Yankees and Angels will play Game Two of the American League Championship Series tonight. While the weather tonight shouldn't be any colder than last night, the chance of rain is much greater, as there is a nasty looking storm system sitting southwest of the city and heading towards the Stadium. If they can't go tonight, word is the make up would be scheduled for Sunday afternoon at 4:30.

With Game Three currently slated for Monday afternoon in Anaheim at 4:13 EDT, both teams would like to avoid playing Sunday if at all possible. Getting the game in tonight will give the teams a full day to rest following the cross country flight. The Yankees particularly will want to get tonight's game in though, as a rainout tonight would mean that if A.J. Burnett were to come back to pitch a potential Game Five, as is the current plan, he would be doing so on just three days rest. If the Yankees elect not to pitch Burnett under those conditions, it would likely result in Chad Gaudin matching up against Angels' ace John Lackey.

As we saw in Game Five of last year's World Series, Major League Baseball's now-official policy is that once a post-season game begins, it will be played to its completion. So even if the game begins tonight, it may not end until sometime tomorrow. And given that at present tomorrow's forecast is worse than tonight's, I imagine every effort will be made to get this game played this evening. In the post-season starting the game becomes the decision of MLB, not the home team as in the regular season, but I'm confident MLB will roll the dice and try to get this one in tonight.

MLB won't be the only ones taking a gamble with their decisions tonight, as both managers have made unorthodox line up decisions that, if they don't work out, could potentially place them in a media storm as intense as anything brewing in the Tri-State area right now. As we examined on Thursday, Joe Saunders will take the hill for the Halos and Jose Molina will be behind the dish for the Yankees.

As we saw last night, John Lackey struggled to get a feel for his curveball in the frigid conditions. Earlier today, the Yankees Universe predicted that Saunders would have similar problems tonight giving A.J. Burnett an edge, while over at LoHud John Flaherty thinks the weather will have a bigger impact on Burnett's arsenal. So I'm not sure what to think on this one.

Weather aside, I think the Yankees have the edge in the pitching match up. A.J. Burnett posted better numbers than Joe Saunders this year and has a better track record. Again, as we mentioned earlier this week, Saunders gave up the second most HR in the AL this year and had the second highest HR rate. Last night was just the second time in 86 games that Yankee Stadium did not yield a long ball. Maybe the weather supresses power again tonight, or maybe the combination of Saunders and the ballpark makes up for last night.

Saunders faced the Yankees twice this year, both in Anaheim. He allowed 11 baserunners and 5 ER in 5 IP in taking a no decision on July 10th, then went 8.1 IP with just 7 baserunners and 2 ER in getting the win on September 21st, giving him a line of 1-0 with a 4.72 ERA and 1.35 WHIP in 13.1 IP. He gave up two home runs to Alex Rodriguez and one to Hideki Matsui. Saunders did not appear in this year's Division Series, but had a disastrous start (4.2 IP, 5 H, 4 ER, 4 BB) in last year's series against Boston.

A.J Burnett made two starts against the Angels this year, on April 30th in the Bronx and in season series finale in Anaheim on September 23rd. In the first game he allowed 4 ER in 7 IP and received a no decision. In the second he went just 5.2 innings but allowed just two runs, fanned 11, and picked up the win. He made his first career post-season start in Game Two of the ALDS and allowed just 1 ER in 6 IP. He did issue five free passes though after leading the AL in walks this year; look for Bobby Abreu and his minions to attempt to exploit that tonight.

As mentioned, Jose Molina will catch Burnett again. Hideki Matsui remains the DH, which is a wise move since he destroys lefties. This will allow the Yankees to insert Jorge Posada directly into the game when Molina is inevitably pinch hit for at some point. Molina will bat ninth, with Nick Swisher taking Posada's customary six spot and Melky Cabrera moving up to eighth.

This will be an interesting one. If the weather doesn't postpone the game, it still has the potential to delay the game deep into the night and to be factor for pitchers, fielders, and batted balls. Saunders, coming off a lackluster season, gets the Game Two nod over ALDS Game Two starter Jered Weaver and over a better lefty in Scott Kazmir. Jose Molina once again plays over the far offensively-superior Jorge Posada. MLB, Scioscia, and Girardi are all taking their turns rolling the dice tonight. Here's hoping that the Yankees are the ones with the hot hand.



You know the gambler he rides, rides on a fool's train
Trading silver for gold
But his luck will change, time takes its toll
On a gambler's roll

Yanks Win A Chiller

On a cold and blustery night in the Bronx, where the temperature hovered in the low 40's and the wind whipped in from center field, no one could have been very comfortable. Some players donned hats with earflaps and thermal facemasks while fans watched in bundled up from the stands in knit caps, parkas and ponchos. It wasn't the type of night where balls are going to travel very far. With the team's respective aces on the mound, it had the markings of a pitcher's duel, but unfortunately for John Lackey, his defense didn't hold up their end of the bargain.

The Angel's fielding miscues started early on. Derek Jeter, who had made a living of swinging early in the count this year, uncharacteristically took the first 5 pitches against Lackey to lead off the home half of the 1st, ultimately working an 8 pitch at bat before knocking an opposite field single. Johnny Damon followed with one of his own - a broken bat flare to left - that allowed Jeter to advance to third base while Damon took second on an errant throw by Juan Rivera. Mark Teixiera popped out for an unproductive out but A-Rod knocked in Jeter with a sac fly to center.

With Damon still on second, Lackey busted Hideki Matsui in on the hands, getting him to pop the ball straight in the air towards third base, in between Chone Figgins and Eric Aybar. The ball hung in the air interminably and at some point they both lost track of it; looking at each other for a split second, before realizing that neither was looking at the ball.

It landed just in front of Aybar, allowing Damon to trot home easily on what was absurdly scored a single for Hideki Matsui. It might have been the highest single ever. John Lackey could not be reached for comment.

The Yanks left the bottom of the first with a 2-0 lead which proved to be enough for the man of the night, CC Sabathia. The Big Fellas' only hiccup came in the 4th inning when Vlad Guerrero absolutely ripped a ball to left-center and settled into his home run trot, only to see the ball bounce on the warning track. He ended up on second and was singled home with two outs by Kendry Morales two batters later.

The big man made a brilliant play in the 5th, fielding a well-placed bunt down the third baseline by Torii Hunter and firing to first. Teixeira made a great stab, falling off the base into a split but hanging onto the bag with his toe just long enough. Hunter thought he was safe and Mike Scioscia came out to argue, but replays (and the picture below) conclusively showed ball-in-glove and foot-on-bag.

The Yanks responded promptly. With men on first and second in the 5th, Hideki Matsui slapped a fastball from Lackey, splitting the left and center fielders before dying on the outfield grass just short of the warning track. Johnny Damon was ticketed for home already ticketed for home, but Juan Rivera slid towards the ball in a clumsy attempt to field it, which A-Rod picked up as he was passing second base. Alex put his head down rounding third and blew through a stop sign from Rob Thompson. The ball arrived before him and he collided hard with Halos' catcher Jeff Mathis, knee squaring up to jaw, bowling him over but failing to knock the ball loose. Replays showed that Mathis never applied the tag but it's a play would have been next to impossible for the ump to have called correctly.

In the 6th, Melky Cabrera reached on a walk, moved to second on another defensive mistake by the Angels, this one an errant pickoff throw by Lackey. Jeter followed with a sharp liner up the middle which should have produced a close play at the plate with Torii Hunter coming on. However, continuing the tragedy of errors, Hunter let the ball bounce over him, there was no throw and Jeter took second in the process.

Meanwhile, CC Sabathia had just settled into his groove. After giving up the run in the fourth, he allowed only one of the final 14 batters he faced to reach base; Kendry Morales with a walk in the 7th. That was only the second time Sabathia reached a 3 ball count all night and the first walk he issued this postseason.

As the cliche goes, the Angels did a lot to beat themselves in the field. But Sabathia did a lot to beat them on the mound, too, which the fans acknowledged at various points, chanting "C-C". Carsten Charles held them to four hits and one walk while striking out 7 in 8 innings The Yankees bullpen was warming at times, but Sabathia did not need to be relieved until the 9th.

Mariano Rivera issued a rare walk to Torii Hunter to begin the inning, but then recorded three straight outs including a swinging strikeout of Vlad Guerrero during which the once-deadly slugger looked like he was swinging underwater.

The Yanks took the 1-0 series lead, but a massive storm system looms east of NYC surrounding Game 2 of the series in a literal cloud of uncertainty. It could be a while before more baseball is played, but the wait won't seem as bad with a "W" under the belt.

ALCS Game 1: Who Knows?

Here we are, folks. It's the American League Championship Series; Phase Two of a possible three in the quest for ultimate baseball glory. It's been a long 5 years since the Yanks have been in those position.

There are only 6 Yankees (Jeter, A-Rod, Mo, Posada, Cano, Matsui) that were on the roster in 2004 or the last time the Yankees faced the Angels in 2005. The Angels are returning only 4 players from 2005. So while the narrative that the Angels own the Yanks in the postseason is going to be thrown out there, it's not all that relevant any more. The Red Sox supposedly had the Angels' number going into the ALDS and they are watching this one from their respective couches. (I love pointing that out...)

As Matt delved into this morning, the two teams split the season series and are quite evenly matched. The Yanks have a slight advantage when you look at the accumulation of their regular season stats, but much of that goes out the window at this point. The rosters are optimized for a short series and there's no guarantee that a 52/48 or even 55/45 edge is going to show up in a best of 7 series. The miserable weather in the Bronx to start the series could further obscure any advantages one way or another.

John Lackey gets the start for the Angels tonight, off a dominant outing against the Red Sox in the ALDS. The Angels' Ace shut down the Sox over 7 1/3 IP, holding them to 4 hits, one walk and no runs. He was also sharp in his one outing against the Yankees this year, holding them to two runs over 7 innings out in Anaheim and picking up the win in the process.

The Angels trot out a pretty formidable line up as well, one that ranked second in the AL behind the Yankees in runs scored. That's pretty impressive when you consider that they were only 3rd in OBP and 4th in slugging percentage (Yanks were first in both). Their oft-discussed running game has surely filled in some of those gaps. The always-pesky Chone Figgins will be leading off and Bobby Abreu, Torii Hunter, and Vlad Guerrero make up the heart of their order. Kendry Morales has put up Mark Teixeira-style numbers this year but he's only hitting 6th.

Of course, CC Sabathia will be ascending to the rubber for the Yankees and trying to wade though that line up tonight. He wasn't in his start against the Twins (which was 9 freaking days ago), but he did strike out 8 and walk none in 6 2/3 innings. He gave up 8 hits and 2 runs (one earned) and needed 113 pitches to do it, but showed that he was capable of finding his command under pressure.

He didn't fare well in either of his starts against the Angels during the regular season this year. In 13 1/3 innings of work, he gave up 9 ER, 17 hits, took the loss in both games but did strike out 11 while walking only 4. Decent peripheral numbers, but that's not much to hang your hat on. We're only interested in the bottom line from here on out.

The Yanks offense, outside of A-Rod, Jeter, Matsui and a couple timely hits by Mark Teixeira didn't look too hot against the Twins. Their batting line of .225/.288/.431 isn't going to get it done against the Angels, much less earn them a sweep.

Right now, we're still at the phase where nobody has a clue where this series is going to go. Hopefully this is going to be a great match up; an all-time classic. But what has happened this season, in the ALDSes, in 2005 or in 2002 isn't going to mean much after tonight. Hopefully the Yanks can pull it off, but who knows? Let's go Yanks.

They don't know,
Like I know,
Do you know?
They don't know,
I don't know.

You Know You've Made It In Sports Blogging When...

...Someone takes the time to FJM one of your posts.

Click over and see the hopeless homers at Halos Heaven (of SB Nation, of the Internets) misinterpret what Matt was trying to say, make a misguided attempt at mocking the title of this site, and use "words" like "fallicy" to defend their hitting coach right fielder, Bobby Abreu.

Behold this brilliant analogy comparing Abreu's influence on the Angels to a math teacher:

Once agan it comes down to LUCK. Sure. If your kid comes home from school with better math grades and tells you it's because his teacher showed him a better way to solve the equation, are you going to tell him, "No, you've just had better luck".

This would make perfect sense if A) there were varying degrees to which you could solve an equation, B) the greatest mathematician who ever lived solved equations at a 50% clip, C) the person creating the equations was doing so with the intention of making them impossible to solve and D) the teacher was somehow also the child's classmate. But other than that, it's flawless. Bobby Abreu is Mr. Dewey. Got it.

They also put together an wildly unoriginal list of reasons they hate the Yankees which we would counter if Yankees fans cared enough about the Angels to hate them. Well okay, here's one:

1. CHONE Figgins - I've never pronounced it "Shawn" and never will. Ch-ch-ch-ch-choke on that one, Figgins!

Just because the Red Sox aren't in the ALCS doesn't mean there can't be some animosity involved. Fuck the Angels... Wooohohohohohoo!!!

Round 2: Damon v. Abreu

Yesterday's hot topic around here, Bobby Abreu just got offered a nice new deal with the Angels.

The Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim offered Bobby Abreu a two-year extension worth about $16MM, according to SI.com's Jon Heyman (via Twitter).

As he did before this year, ol' Bobby is shooting for the stars and looking for a better deal. There's no real harm in that since he didn't sign with the Angels until mid-February this year and he has every right to find another team that's willing to pay him more than that.

Abreu is a really good hitter who would be an asset if placed in any lineup in the history of the game and he's coming off a pretty good year. But he'll be 36 years old when next season starts. He already has limited ability as a corner outfielder and will eventually transition into a part-time DH role.

Does that scenario sound familiar? That's right folks, Johnny Damon is in a nearly identical position.

Granted, the most likely scenario is that both guys stay where they are at, but let's assume the Yankees could have either of them for 2 years at $10M per. It might be a bit much, but with that offer already sitting out there for Abreu, we know it's not going to be much less.

Like we did yesterday with Nick Swisher and Abreu, let's look at the stats.

Damon batted in the two hole almost exclusively this year, while Abreu primarily hit third. This explains some of the gap in RBI, but not as well as Abreu's .354/.448/.475 line with RISP. That's great and all, but it's hardly sustainable.

On the same note, Damon set a career high for HRs this year and that is likely to regress to the mean next year as well. If Abreu were to get half of his plate appearances in Yankee Stadium in 2010, there's a pretty good chance his totals would increase, bringing the two a bit closer together.

The stolen base edge goes to Abreu, but Damon obviously could have run more and a good portion of the difference has to be the product of the strategy of the teams they play for. Defense isn't going to matter as much in the role that the Yankees are looking for since it will involve a good amount of games in the DH slot but Damon was completely terrible this year, and I don't think we can chalk off of it up to his eye issues. Although subjectively, I don't think there's any way he's that much worse than Abreu.

We're looking at two pretty similar players. Both have been extremely fortunate with their health over the years and remain productive at an advanced age. Both are risky investments and there's a fair chance that two years from now, one will look better than the other or both will look pretty bad. But based on what we know now, who ya got?

Realistically, Damon is far more likely to stick around due to real world factors like their families and such, but on paper a good case could be made for either of these guys. Think of what Abreu could do for the Yankees' approach at the plate!

Ronan Tynan: A Singer, Not A Comedian

There are plenty of people who think that playing God Bless America during the 7th inning stretch of every game is unnecessary. I would tend to agree with that sentiment, especially since the rendition by Kate Smith is awful. However, if they could get Ronan Tynan to do it every game - and maybe save the first verse for the big games - I would be totally on board.

Well, that's not going to be happening anytime soon:

Irish tenor Ronan Tynan sings a first-rate "God Bless America," at Yankee Stadium, but his attempt at telling a joke offended a Jewish doctor who found it to be anti-Semitic. [...]

The trouble started when Tynan, 49, bumped into a real estate agent showing an apartment in his East Side apartment building to a doctor from NYU Medical Center.

The agent told Tynan, "Don't worry, they are not Red Sox fans," according to apartment-hunter Gabrielle Gold-von Simson.

"I don't care about that, as long as they aren't Jewish," was Tynan's reply.

Yikes. That must have been awkward. "Well Mr. Tynan, they are Jewish..."

Apparently you can get away with those kind of "jokes" in Ireland. Not so much in New York. The Yankees spiked his appearance tonight as a result.

Hopefully they've secured someone else to sing God Bless America live. My buddy Joe suggested Daniel Rodriguez. It had better be someone, because Kate Smith and her gargling rendition have no place in the playoffs. If the Yankees lose tonight, it's on you, Tynan!

Are You Ready For Some Baseball?

Good morning Fackers. It's finally Friday. This is of course a good thing due to it being the end of yet another work week. But more importantly the seemingly interminable wait for another game of Yankee baseball is over - Mother Nature willing. Five whole days. And we thought the All-Star Break was long this year.

Speaking of the All-Star Break, just prior to it the Yankees had a disastrous three game series in Anaheim during which they were swept and outscored by a total of eleven runs. The end of that series marked the start of the longest hiatus the Yankees had this year - until now. The new longest break will end with a series against those same Angels, except the stakes are much higher this time.

The Yankees' 2009 regular season featured several key moments: the return of Alex Rodriguez in Baltimore; the three consecutive walk-offs against the Twins, the surprise visit from Brian Cashman in Atlanta, a momentum swinging ejection of Joe Girardi, Francisco Cervelli's first Major League home run and the early August sweep in the Bronx that finally turned the tables on the Red Sox. While all of those were positive events, it was perhaps getting swept in southern California that was the most critical turning point of the Yankee season. They exited that series at 51-37, 3 games back in the AL East. They went 52-22 the rest of the way, finishing with the best record in baseball.

Those last 74 games included four against the Angels. The Yankees went 3-1 in those games to even the season series at five apiece, but thanks to that three game set in July, they finished with a minus ten run differential against the Halos. From a Pythagorean perspective, the Yankees picked up about three quarters of win beyond what they should have, thanks in large part to three of their victories coming by a single run.

Over the course of this series, much will be made of the Yankees struggles against the Angels during Mike Scioscia's tenure, particularly in the 2002 and 2005 Division Series. While there's no denying that, it doesn't much matter. These Yankees and Angels are far removed even from last year's versions. This year they split, and while the Yanks may owe probability three fourths of a win heading into this series, they were able to carry an even larger IOU against the Twins over to 2010.

The Yankees last played a game Sunday, in the final baseball game ever played at the Metrodome. Incidentally, we thought the Yankees played their last game there way back in July. Oddly enough, the three game sweep at the hands of the Angels immediately followed. After the Angels took those three, the Yankees took three of the next four. Seven games. Four Angels wins, three Yankees wins. Let's hope those numbers reverse themselves over the next seven games. This series ought to be a good one.

Pulling For Joe?

Great news, my fellow baseball fans, our long national (pastime's) nightmare is over. Those were a couple very cold and lonely nights without baseball gracing our television screens. As Yankee fans, we were eased into this break with Game 4 of the Phillies vs. Rockies series on Monday and we'll be eased out of it with Game 1 of the NLCS at 8:07 tonight.

You may be familiar with the manager of the Los Angeles Dodgers - his name is Joe Torre. He worked for the Yankees for a couple of nondescript years in a low profile position a while back. Anyway, Peter Gammons was on Michael Kay's radio show yesterday and insinuated that Mr. Torre, despite his affinity for wheatgrass, is not enjoying his time in the City of Angels (link via BBTF):

Kay asked Gammons if he agreed that Joe Torre would only stay on as the Dodgers' manager through the 2010 season, when his contract ends.

"Yes, I do buy that," said Gammons. " ... I wouldn't be surprised and I think a lot of things will probably come out here in the next few months but I think (Torre's) life with the Dodgers is pretty much a living hell."

Kay: "Really!?"

Gammons: "Oh, yeah."

Kay: "So he thought he had it bad in New York and it's worse there?"

Gammons: "Oh, yeah ... Oh, yeah. There'll be a lot that comes out in time with Dodger ownership, but that is a mess [link added], and I don't think anyone wants to have to put up with it too long."

This may give some of you a bit of satisfaction since the reason that Torre ended up in LA in the first place was because he was "insulted" by an offer from the Yankees that would have made his the highest paying manager in the Major Leagues before any of the incentives involved with the deal kicked in. Or others who thought it was a little hypocritical to compare Michael Kay to Rhona Barrett to gain respect from his players when he first arrived on the scene and then write a tell-all book with Tom Verducci called "The Yankee Years" after he left.

Torre responded to comments, sounding a bit like your ex-girlfriend who broke up with you only to find out that what you had wasn't so bad, saying, “My relationship is fine here”and forcing a smile.

I never held it against Torre that he turned down the Yankees offer, probably because I thought it was time for a new manager anyway. My old roommate and I were actually at Mickey Mantle's on Central Park South the day that he flew down to Tampa to inform the Yanks of his decision. We were interviewed by one of the local news stations who sent a crew to the bar and I said something about it being "time to turn over the chain of command to someone a bit younger who can handle the pitching staff better" or something like that, except even more unintelligible since it was in front of the camera.

Oddly enough, Torre is now being lauded for his bullpen management after he brought in his closer, Jonathan Broxton in the 8th inning to face the heart of the Cardinals' order despite being down a run. Torre knew that Broxton would likely have to be removed for a pinch hitter if the Dodgers got anyone on base in the home half of the inning (which they did), but he still chose his best pitcher for the highest leverage situation, something that sabermetricians have been suggesting for years. Pretty crazy, huh?

Are you rooting for the Dodgers in this series? I don't think there's an appreciable difference in match-ups should the Yankees fulfill their end of the bargain which would be the first consideration, so it probably just comes down to preference. I'll admit that last year, since the Yanks did terribly, I wanted the Dodgers to get bounced as early as possible so that Torre's decision to spurn the Yanks wouldn't be vindicated (by the media anyway).

This year? Not so much. When you're happy with your own situation, it's a lot easier to pull for others.

[Update: Awesome gallery of old school Torre from Big League Stew]

Two Thoughts On Game Two

I know Game One isn't even until tomorrow, but here are two thoughts on the two hot button issues from this post-season, both of which affect Game Two (weather permitting).

First, Mike Scioscia's decision to pitch Joe Saunders in Game Two has been widely questioned, and with good reason in my opinion. I understand Scioscia's desire to utilize a lefty in Yankee Stadium in order to neutralize the Yankee lefties and switch hitters, since Yankee Stadia have historically favored lefties.

However, this Yankee Stadium has been a launching pad of historic proportions through its first 85 games. And as I pointed out when Saunders pitched against the Yanks three weeks ago, he is particularly prone to giving up the gopher ball. Saunders surrendered 29 long balls this year, tied for second in the American League despite the fact that an August DL stint limited him to 186 IP on the year. His 1.4 HR/9 also tied for second worst in the AL. Meanwhile, fellow lefty Scott Kazmir has more experience in the new Yankee Stadium, is a better pitcher overall, and allowed just 1.0 HR/9 this year, slightly less than league average.

A further thought regarding Saunders, Yankee batters this year hit .282/.360/.476 against right handed pitching and a slightly better across the board .286/.365/.480 against left handed pitching. There's no discernible platoon advantage there. The Angels would be best off throwing their best available pitcher in Game Two, and that pitcher is not Joe Saunders.

The second issue is whether Jose Molina will again catch A.J. Burnett. The Yankees have yet to announce that decision, though I'm inclined to believe that he will. But, even if he doesn't, I think we may see a bit of Jose Molina in this series anyway. Despite ranking just 11th in the AL in SB%, the Angels ranked third in the league in stolen bases with 148. In an effort to neutralize their running game, I wouldn't be surprised to see Jose Molina behind the plate in the late innings of game if the Yankees are leading.

This happened once already this year, early in the season in this game. Afterwards, Jorge Posada left the park without addressing the media. If this were to happen in the ALCS, the media storm would dwarf the Molina-gate squall that preceded Game Two of the ALDS.

I'm not sure what to make of this one. No one is going to confuse Jorge Posada with vintage Pudge Rodriguez behind the plate. And Posada shouldn't put his ego ahead of the good of the team. But, given that the Angels were below average in SB% and that all Yankee catchers, including Posada, were above league average CS%, it might be to the Yankees' advantage to tempt the Angels to give outs away on the bases.

Furthermore, if you subtract out caught stealings attributed to the pitcher making a pickoff attempt, Jorge Posada's catcher's caught stealing percentage of 21.6% is close to the league average of 21.9% and superior to Jose Molina's 17.9%. In fact, though the sample size is relatively small, the numbers suggest that if the Yankees decide to make a running based defensive substitution behind the plate, the nod should go to Franciso Cervelli who had an off the charts catcher's caught stealing percentage of 38.1% (8 of 21) in the equivalent of about 27 games behind the dish.

Guzman In, Hinske Out

Via LoHud, Joe Girardi announced that Freddy Guzman will be added to the ALCS roster at the expense of Eric Hinske. They've got the audio and the relevant part can be found around the 2:00 mark.

Joel Sherman (among others) advocated this move yesterday, reasoning that while Hinske does have a solid bat, there are few occasions that he would be used:

The Yanks should stick with Hinske only if they intend to start him vs. Jered Weaver, against whom Hinske is 4-for-11 with a homer lifetime. Hinske could start in left for struggling Johnny Damon (3-for-19 vs. Weaver with no extra-base hits) or as the DH rather than Hideki Matsui (2-for-10 vs. Weaver) or Jorge Posada (2-for-14, but with a homer and double).

My gut, though, tells me Girardi plans to ignore small sample sizes and go with his standard lineup vs. Weaver. In that case, the Yanks should meet Angels' aggression with aggression of their own, and put Guzman on the roster.

We haven't been very big proponents of the Freddy Guzman experiment around here, but we are literally talking about the 25th man on the roster in this case. Hinske didn't leave the dugout except to celebrate during the ALDS, and the presence of Guzman will allow Joe Girardi to start Brett Gardner over Melky Cabrera (which is probably optimal) and still have a pinch runner available on the bench.

It also means that Francisco Cervelli will still be around for the ALCS, creating some interesting possibilities for catching in the later innings. Like we saw in Game 2 against the Twins, when Jose Molina starts, he could be pinch hit for by Jorge Posada, who could later be pinch run for (in this case by Guzman) and replaced by Cervelli for defense. In games Posada starts, the second half of that equation still holds true with Molina being the likely defensive replacement.

Check back in a little while, as Matt will take a closer look at the catching situation for the series.

Swisher v. Abreu

This morning, Matt did a great job debunking the myth of Bobby Abreu's resurgent season and magical contagious plate discipline out in Anaheim. I also want to chime in on Abreu's production this season, but in relation to his ostensible replacement - another cheap acquisition via trade for the Yankees - Nick Swisher.

Although Xavier Nady was slotted as the starting right fielder and Swisher was supposed to man first base at the time the Yankees declined to offer Abreu arbitration on his $16M 2008 contract, Nady was done for the season by April 14th and Swish ended up getting over 600 plate appearances for the Yanks. Abreu sounded a bit like a spurned lover when talking about the Yankees cutting him loose but the reality is that at the time $16M was far too much to offer a corner outfielder with limited range when the market are held players like Raul Ibanez, Adam Dunn, Milton Bradley and Pat Burrell - even before taking into account the state of the baseball economy.

The decision made itself. The Angels waited out Abreu's attempts at a large, multi-year deal and got great value on highly productive hitter. Meanwhile, the Yankees signed Mark Teixeira and Swish ended up taking Abreu's place in right field of the New Yankee Stadium. They made essentially the same amount of money in 2009, so who got the better player?

Both guys love to work the count and put up solid OBPs, but that's pretty much where their similarities end. Let's take a look at the numbers (bold print represents an advantage):

A cursory look at the basic stats would give the nod to Abreu. His batting average is far higher than Swisher's and he batted in 14 21 more runs while stealing 30 bases.

However, while Abreu complied 41 more hits than Swisher, he actually had 14 fewer go for extra bases. The OBP advantage goes to Abreu, but more importantly, the slugging crown is Swish's by a wide margin. The home run totals are skewed by the New Yankee Stadium (although Swish only hit 8 at home), but not so much that Abreu would have hit twice as many there.

Abreu batted either second or third in the Angels' line up while Swisher was typically hitting somewhere between 6th and 8th for the Yankees, which explains the difference in RBIs. The 30 stolen bases at a 78% success rate do represent a major advantage for Abreu, but adding those 22 net total bases to Abreu's total isn't enough counteract Swisher's advantage in slugging percentage while subtracting the 8 times on base brings with OBPs closer together.

Usually, you would expect the guy who is a better base stealer to have the advantage in fielding as well, but that's not the case in this scenario. Swish didn't even attempt to steal a base all year long but still was better, or should I say "not as bad" as Abreu in right field.

Mainly on the strength of defense and power, Swisher had a higher value for the Yankees this year. Since Abreu hit all the plate appearance-based incentives in his contract this year, it means that Swish was the cheaper option by about $700,000 as well.

Both teams made out very well, but for different reasons. Swisher was cost controlled because of the deal he signed buying out his arbitration years and Abreu's contract was one of the most team-friendly in a historic buyer's market. The Yanks got an average fielding slugger while the Angels got a singles-raking base stealer. And with the teams meeting in the ALCS, I don't think there are too many regrets with how this scenario played out.

The Fallacy Of El Comedulce

Good morning Fackers. The completion of the transcontinental railroad in 1869 allowed for far easier and faster transportation from the East Coast to the West Coast than had previously existed. Yet, from what I've been hearing and reading over the past several months, the concepts of the base on balls and working the pitch count still did not make its way west until some 140 years later when Bobby Abreu signed with the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim.

Don't get me wrong, Bobby Abreu is a very good baseball player. Depending upon how the Johnny Damon and Hideki Matsui situations work out this off-season, he might be a good option for the 2010 Yankees to explore. He was initially acquired in one of the best deals Brian Cashman has made and provided the Yankees with two and a half years of good to excellent offensive production, even if his phobia of outfield walls was downright comical by the end of his tenure in the Bronx. The Yankees rightly refused to offer him arbitration following last season, as the $16M he earned in 2008 would have made his 2009 arbitration figure far more than what he's worth. That coupled with the collapse of the free agent market last off-season in light of both the U.S. economy and the ever changing landscape of baseball economics allowed the Angels to sign Abreu for the bottom basement price of $5M for 2009.

While the prevaling narrative is that Abreu enjoyed something of a comeback season, the reality is that his OPS+ of 115 this year is worse than last year (120), essentially equal to his 2007 (114), and the second lowest total of his career since becoming an everyday player in 1998. Some of that can be attributed to the continued diminishing of his power late in his career. But while his OBP of .390 and his BB% of 14.1 are improvements on 2007 and 2008, they still rank as his third lowest marks since 1998.

Yet if you were to listen to the announcers during ALDS or any other nationally televised Angels' game this year, or if you were to google "Bobby Abreu influence on Angels", you would be subjected to scores of hyperbolic statements crediting Abreu with teaching the Angels, who have made the playoffs three straight seasons and six of the last eight, how to finally work a pitch count and take a walk. Nevermind that as recently as 2007 the Angels finished third in the AL in OBP, just as they did this year, with a mark .345, just a half percent lower than this year's .350.

In this post yesterday, Rob Neyer, vamping on Tyler Kepner's piece in The Times, pointed out that the Angels walked 66 more times this year than last, boosting their walk rate from 7.8% to 8.7% and rising from 11th in the AL in OBP back to third, where they had finished in 2007. Yet Neyer also notes that the difference can be entirely attributed to the performance of Abreu alone, who had 65 more walks than the man he replaced - Garrett Anderson, a notorious free swinger whose career high in walks is a whopping 38. In addition to Abreu, Chone Figgins walked 39 more times this year than in 2008. So outside of Figgins and swapping Anderson for Abreu, the rest of the Angels walked 38 fewer times than they did in 2008.

While their average pitches per plate appearance increased from 3.65 to 3.88, that only equates to about 12.5 extra pitches per game, of which about 5.5 can be attributed to Abreu and Figgins. So the rest of the line up saw, on average, one extra pitch each over the course of a game. And while the team's walk rate did increase by 0.9% this year, their IsoD is consisent with last year (.065 this year as opposed to .062 last year). Their 20 point boost in on base percentage is just as much due to a 17 point jump in batting average, which in turn can be attributed to a 23 point jump in team BABIP despite just a one percent increase in LD%. So much for Abreu's influence; it appears luck has far more to do with the Angels' surge in OBP than Abreu does.

Bobby Abreu was the best bargain of the 2008-2009 Crazy Eddie style off-season. You don't need FanGraphs to tell you that Abreu was a steal $6M ($5M base plus $1M incentives), but just to put a number on it, FanGraphs places Abreu's worth at $11.8M this year, nearly twice his salary. That's one helluva deal the Angels got for themselves, but it doesn't mean that Abreu, as one of the most selective hitters in the game, has bestowed his patience upon the rest of the lineup through his mere presence. Keep that in mind as Joe Buck, Tim McCarver, Ken Rosenthal, and the print media try to beat that story line into our head over the course of the ALCS.