Monday, December 21, 2009

Lunchtime Links

As Chad Jennings pointed out this morning, it's going to take a lot to top last Monday, but there are a few odds and ends (some from over the weekend) worth checking out.

Over the weekend, E.J. from The Yankee Universe advocated making Brett Gardner the Yankees everyday center fielder.

On the other hand, Joe Pawlikowski from River Ave. Blues compared Gardner to Scott Podsednik, warning against using projections to predict his production in 2010. Unfortunately, the latter of these two posts provides the more realistic assessment.

Mark Carig from the Star-Ledger asked a person who used to do statistical analysis for a major league club for their reaction to the Granderson deal. The first sentence: "What a deal".

According to the Daily News, the Yankees and the Cubs could be trading partners. Gardner or Melky Cabrera are the likely targets since the Cubbies are in need of a center fielder, but it's not clear what the Yankees would want in return. Carlos Zambrano's name was mentioned but the asking price was reportedly "high". Even higher is his salary, so file this one under "Things We Aren't Buying".

Joe Posnanski saw Up In The Air over the weekend and wrote an epic post about movies and travel inspired by it.

This morning, Lar from Wezen-Ball dug up an interview with an ex-Yankee from the well-respected Weekly World News.

Bill Madden says that their agents have left Johnny Damon, Matt Holliday and Jason Bay out in the cold by mis-reading the free agent market. Easy there Bill, it's not even Christmas yet.

The Post says that Cashman is hoping to acquire a starter by New Years and names Jason Marquis, Joel Pineiro and Ben Sheets as targets. MLBTR adds a few more.

Sports Illustrated has an interview with Peter Gammons.

Digging Out From The Weekend

Good morning Fackers. Hopefully you have managed to shovel yourself out from the storm that buried much of the East Coast throughout the day on Saturday and into Sunday morning. Since it was the last weekend for people to roam the malls in search of Christmas gifts, retailers are predictably acting like they were just held up at gunpoint.

The Bears and Ravens ended up playing in Baltimore despite the fact that the Bears were stuck in Chicago until late Saturday night and M&T Bank Stadium being covered with almost two feet of the white stuff. The Ravens claimed it cost them almost $500,000 to remove all of it. According to the Redskins they've employed 1,200 workers to relocate the 25 million pounds of snow on FedEx Field before the Giants and Redskins play tonight.

Unfortunately, the storm didn't manage to put a damper on the opening weekend for that movie with the blue people that I refuse to name, which has been annoying us with their contrived promotions for two fucking months. Is there no justice in this world?

In baseball news, after waiting more than a week for Mike Lowell to take a physical for the Rangers, the Red Sox saw the trade that would have sent him and $9M to Texas in exchange for catching prospect Max Ramirez fall through. Lowell failed that physical because it indicated that the third baseman will need surgery to repair a torn ligament in his right thumb. Recovery time is supposed to be 6-8 weeks and he should be ready for Spring Training in some capacity, but D.J. Short over at Circling the Bases thinks the Red Sox are pissed at Lowell, even if they aren't saying it:
...You have to understand how frustrated the Red Sox are with Lowell for not having the problem addressed sooner. Not only because of the nixed trade, but what might have happened had the Red Sox stayed with the status quo. Lowell likely wouldn't have had the thumb examined during the offseason at all had Texas not tentatively agreed to a trade. They have every reason to be be furious with Lowell, even if they will say otherwise publicly.
Lowell's injury also devastates his trade value when the Sox are finally able to move him. Even if the Sox are willing to eat $9M of his contract, almost every team is going to have committed to another option at third base by then. Furthermore, although the injury isn't assumed to be very serious, teams are likely to be skeptical that he will make a full recovery.

This turn of events has left the Sox in a very difficult spot. The easiest thing to do would be penciling in the Youkstah at 3B and allowing Casey Kotchman to man first. But over the past three years, Kotchman has been only league average at first base, hitting .279/.346/.421 (101 OPS+) in 1521 plate appearances. They could venture into the free agent market to find another third baseman, but it falls steeply after Adrian Beltre to guys like Joe Crede, Melvin Mora and Mike Lamb. Do they overspend to cover their asses for this year, or take their chances that Lowell can be productive at the plate and his defense will rebound from last year? Neither of those are very appealing options.

Lowell was signed for $37.5M over 3 years after his World Series MVP and hasn't played more than 120 games or been significantly better than league average offensively in either of the first two seasons of the deal. The third one doesn't look a whole lot better.

Friday, December 18, 2009

The Nick Johnson Trade Tree

With the Yankees on the verge of re-signing former top prospect Nick Johnson, I've been thinking about the trade that initially sent Johnson from The Bronx. It's the start of a very interesting trade tree.

On December 16, 2003, the Yankees sent Johnson, Juan Rivera, and Randy Choate to Montreal for Javier Vazquez.

Just over a year later, the Yankees flipped Vazquez, along with Brad Halsey and Dioner Navarro, to Arizona for Randy Johnson.

Two days short of two years later, the Yankees sent Johnson back to the desert for Luis Vizcaino, Steven Jackson, Alberto Gonzalez, and Ross Ohlendorf.

Vizcaino departed the Yankees as a free agent after the 2007 season. Jackson was DFA'd in 2009 and picked up by Pittsburgh for the waiver fee.

Alberto Gonzalez was sent to Washington at the 2008 deadline for Jhonny Nunez. Nunez was part of the package sent to the White Sox for Nick Swisher last November. Exploring the lineage of that trade is really interesting and lengthy and may be a post for another time. For now, let's just say it includes such luminaries as Kevin Brown, Jeff Weaver, Hideki Irabu, and Xavier Hernandez before finally concluding at Steve Sax.

Ross Ohlendorf was part of a package with Daniel McCutchen, Jeff Karstens, and Jose Tabata that was sent to Pittsburgh for Xavier Nady and Damaso Marte.

So over the past six years, the Yankees surrendered Nick Johnson, Randy Choate, Juan Rivera, Brad Halsey, Dioner Navarro, Daniel McCutchen, Jeff Karstens, and Jose Tabata. All they have left to show for it is Damaso Marte, the waiver money from losing Steven Jackson, and a portion of the Nick Swisher trade.

They further received three years of mediocre pitching between Vazquez and Johnson, one year of relief from Luis Vizcaino during which he was abused into ineffectiveness by Joe Torre, and 276 plate appearances from Xavier Nady.

At least Nick's back now.

Johnny Damon Would Give Himself A 4 Year Deal

One of the more absurd tidbits of the offseason emerged yesterday when Larry Stone of the Seattle Times dropped the following chestnut into an article about the Mariners' interest in signing Johnny Damon (h/t BBTF):
One other rather bizarre Mariner-related Damon anecdote. I heard from someone who works around the Mariners that after Bill Bavasi was fired in 2008, and the Mariners were searching for a new general manager, Damon actually was telling people he would be interested in the job. This person insisted that Damon seemed dead serious, even though he was still an active player. It didn't go anywhere, of course, but I always thought it was an interesting notion. I meant to ask Damon about it last year when the Yankees came to town, but never got a chance.
Johnny Damon seems like a pretty decent guy and when his career is done, he'll probably be a borderline Hall of Famer. He's played for four different organizations (including ones run by Billy Beane, Theo Epstein and Brain Cashman) and been on two World Series winners. The man certainly has an eye for talent. All that said, campaigning for a front office position is one of those times that being a self-proclaimed "idiot" (and "writing" a book about it) might work against you a bit.

Clearly no team with any brains is going to hand over the keys to their franchise to Johnny Damon; I'm certain that any number of assistant GMs or scouting directors or other front office personnel would make a better general manager. If this is true, it makes his request for a four year deal seem downright realistic by comparison.

The Return Of Nick The Stick

Good morning, Fackers. It appears as though the Yankees are close to signing Nick Johnson to a one year, $5.5M deal. Johnson can play exactly one position, first base, and since Mark Teixeira is as much of an everyday player as there is on the team, it looks like Johnson - health permitting - will be a more or less full time designated hitter. Apparently the Yanks weren't so intent on rotating the DH slot to their aging players after all.

With a career OBP of .402 (.426 over the last three years), Johnson is a powerful offensive asset who sees lots of pitches, has excellent strike zone discipline and hits left handed pitching well (.440 OBP against LHP last year) despite being left handed himself. Sticking a guy like that in the 2 hole - in front of Teixeira and A-Rod - is going to lead to a significant increase in RBI opportunities for those two. Nick the Stick's power has declined over the past three seasons (SLG .520, .431, .402), but it would be reasonable to assume that Yankee Stadium would help in that capacity.

The most obvious knock on Johnson is that he's injury prone, suffering ailments ranging from stress fractures in his hand to a fractured cheek bone to a broken femur to back problems to torn ligaments in his wrist. As a result, he has appeared in an average of only 93 games over the past 8 years (including the 2007 season, which he missed entirely). Conventional wisdom says that stashing him away at DH would help prevent injuries, but that's far from a guarantee.

It would have been nice to bring Johnny Damon back but that seems very unlikely if the deal for Johnson goes through. He was asking the Yankees for twice as much money as Johnson over a contract three times as long. Sure, the fact that Damon is able to play the outfield would have increased the flexibility of the roster, but if other players really need a day off, there isn't a good reason that Joe Girardi can't just give Johnson a rest.

As far as Hideki Matsui goes, I think Johnson is a better fit for the Yankees offense. Granted, they both provide next to nothing defensively, but at the plate, they are very similar. Johnson has a career wOBA of .371 and was at .373 last year. Those numbers for Matsui are .367 and .378, respectively. However, Matsui's numbers are predicated on power (which is volatile) while Johnson relies on the more stable on OBP.

I'd rather have someone with a gaudy OBP who A-Rod and Teix will continually have the opportunity to drive in than another, lesser power hitter behind them. Both Matsui and Johnson are injury prone, but the former suffers from chronic knee injuries that are only getting worse while Johnson seems to have been afflicted with more random and flukey ailments.

For what it's worth, Johnson was $1M cheaper than Matsui and it might have been more. As Brian Cashman noted in reference to Bobby Abreu, a player is less likely to take a pay cut from their former employer than from another team.

I don't want to hear about the money that Matsui makes for the organization over in Japan, because that's the team's problem, not the fans'. Who cares how popular the Yankees on the opposite side of the world? We don't benefit from the money they make over there. The fact that Matsui has performed well in the postseason is great, but there's no guarantee that he'll repeat that performance next time around.

Overall, I like this move for the Yankees. It carries limited risk and if Johnson can grind out his usual production for 500 or so plate appearances, he will be a tremendous asset to the line up.

Thursday, December 17, 2009

Bad Luck Blue Eyes Goodbye

We typically don't like to delve into the gossip pages around here, but it's the off-season and news is starting to dry up.

You've probably heard by now that A-Rod and Kate Hudson apparently have split. And well, if those two crazy kids can't make it then what hope is there for the rest of us?

Hudson was credited with helping Rodriguez find peace this year. So without her, he'll surely go back to being a self-centered, socially-awkward, post-season choke artist. It was fun while it lasted.

Don't feel bad A-Rod. You aren't the first one to lose out on this one.

That's it for today Fackers.

Granderson Dons Pinstripes, Chooses #14

During a press conference held at Yankee Stadium this morning, Curtis Granderson slipped a Yankee Jersey over his head for the first time. The 28 year old center fielder wore number 28 during the majority of his time with the Tigers (except during his first call-up during 2004 when he wore 26), but had heard that Joe Girardi was eying the number in honor of the pursuit of the Yankees' 28th World Series.

“I know how tradition is and superstition is from an outside standpoint, so I don’t want to mess with that. Hopefully he’ll continue to wear it and we’ll move forward and keep on knocking people’s numbers out of the way,” Granderson explained. Instead, Curtis chose a number that had worn in high school, which also happens to be 28 divided by 2 - 14.

By choosing #14, Granderson joins 37 former (and one current) Yankees to have worn the number, the first being pitcher George Pipgras back in 1929 (who would have been given #13 if not for superstitious purposes) and the most recent Eric Hinske in Game 5 of the World Series. In between there have been 35 other players including 5 time All-Star Moose Skowron, former player and manger (and current Cubs manager) Lou Pinella, Braves manager Bobby Cox, Late-90's Dynasty role player Luis Sojo and for a short time, Robinson Cano.

More numerous though are the largely forgotten likes of Depression era pitcher Bump Hadley, World War II veteran and scab Butch Wensloff, the amusingly-named Cuddles Marshall, Italian-born Rugger Ardizoia, consummate journeyman Harry Bright, puss-y toad Hideki Irabu, utility man Miguel Cairo and recent PeteAbe age-joke punching bag, Angel Berroa.

Last winter, I wrote a post about some of the lesser know (and more poetically-named) players to have worn 14. Here is the complete list, courtesy of the excellent YankeeNumbers.com:
George Pipgras
Hank Johnson
Ed Wells
Russ Van Atta
Bump Hadley
Jerry Priddy
Butch Wensloff
Monk Dubiel
Bill Bevens
Cuddles Marshall
Lonny Frey
Rugger Ardizoia
Ted Sepkowski
Gene Woodling
Moose Skowron
Harry Bright
Pedro Ramos
Jerry Kenney
Bobby Cox
Ron Swoboda
Lou Piniella
Mike Blowers
Pat Kelly
Hideki Irabu
Wilson Delgado
Luis Sojo
Joe Oliver
Enrique Wilson
Russ Johnson
Andy Phillips
Robinson Cano
Miguel Cairo
Matt DeSalvo
Kevin Thompson
Wilson Betemit
Angel Berroa
Although this is a pretty extensive list, #14 is only the 18th most worn number in Yankee history, trailing 26, 28, 27, 29, 38, 39, 18, 17, 22, 36, 47, 34, 12, 25, 24, 19, 21, 43 and tied with 20 and 40. The Yankees were not technically the first team to wear numbers on their backs - that would be the Indians by virtue of an Opening Day rain out in 1929 - but they have been wearing them continuously since.

Granderson will probably not be the Yankee who gets #14 retired, but with a couple of good seasons he'll be close to the top of the list of the best Bronx Bombers to wear that number.

Did Philly Really Need Roy Halladay?

Yesterday one of the biggest, most complex, and - to me at least - confusing trades of the past several years was finally completed. The Phillies sent Cliff Lee, who they acquired at last summer's deadline for a package of prospects after they and Toronto couldn't agree on a package for Roy Halladay, to the Mariners for a package of prospects. Philly then sent a package of their own prospects - one nearly identical to the one they balked at less than five months ago - to Toronto for Roy Halladay and $6M. Then, Toronto took one of the minor leaguers they received from Philly, Michael Taylor, and flipped him to Oakland for Brett Wallace, who was the centerpiece of the package Oakland received for Matt Holiday just five days before Philly pulled the trigger on the first Cliff Lee deal. Got all that?

What confuses me isn't keeping all the players and parties straight. It's that I can't figure out what Philly is thinking here. Don't get me wrong, the Phillies hauled in the unquestioned best player amongst the nine on the move in this deal. But I don't get why they're willing to pay virtually the same price for Halladay now that they refused to pay in July, and to do it for a half a year less of his services.

Further, I can't figure out why they would pay that cost now, essentially decimating their farm system, to make an incremental upgrade from a top ten pitcher in Cliff Lee to a top five pitcher in Halladay, especially when they were universally lauded for making a smart deal for Lee when the Halladay price was too high five months ago. Lee is more than a year younger, has 1,060 fewer professional innings on his odometer, is half as expensive as Halladay in 2010, and they had to commit a $20M per year extension to Halladay that will carry him through his age 36 or age 37 season.

But let's back up the train a bit. In July, Toronto was apparently asking Philadelphia for J.A. Happ, Dominic Brown, and Kyle Drabek - son of former Yankee pitcher Doug Drabek. The Phils continually balked at that request, deeming Drabek untouchable and were willing to offer Carlos Carrasco instead. When a Halladay deal couldn't be reached Philly turned to Cleveland, and were able to bring in Lee for Carrasco, Jason Donald, Jason Knapp, and Lou Marson. The Lee trade allowed them to keep all the proposed chips from the Halladay deal but cost them their number 2, 3, 4, and 10 prospects according to Baseball America.

Less than five months later Philly chose to make the deal for Halladay, surrendering Drabek, as well as Michael Taylor in place of Brown and Travis D'Arnaud in place of Happ. In surrending this package they give up their number 5, 6, and 7 prospects, but did get to keep their top prospect in Brown, as well as Happ, who has proven himself capable of pitching at the Major League level.

In order to afford Halladay, and to restock their beleaguered farm system, Philly then shipped the younger, less used, less expensive Lee to the Mariners for Phillippe Aumont, Tyson Gillies, and Juan Ramirez. Aumont ranked as Seattle's third best prospect, Ramirez as their fifth. Gillies didn't rank, though he did profile as their system's top base runner and best outfield arm.

Then just for good measure, Toronto flipped Taylor to Oakland for third baseman Brett Wallace. Hypothetically, if not for the Halladay deal, Philly could have made the same trade with Oakland and received Wallace, which in turn may have prevented them from committing three years and $19M to 34 year old - and declining - Placido Polanco, who has made just 43 appearances at the hot corner over the past seven seasons. Making that hypothetical trade and saving the Polanco money might have allowed them to use that money and the money they'll be paying Halladay towards an extension for Lee.

I don't know that this was bad a series of trades for Philadelphia, but I'm unsure that they were necessary. I suppose the regime change in Toronto had something to do with it. And I suppose Seattle's apparent willingness to go all in for 2010 played a role in the decisions as well. But it boils down to Philly trading seven of their top ten prospects, and six of their top seven, to get Halladay, two of Seattle's top ten prospects, a third Seattle prospect, and $6M - or enough to cover slightly more than 75% of the 2010 salary difference between Halladay and Lee.

Now not all prospects are the same and not all systems are created equal. Perhaps the package Philly received from Seattle is comparable to what they gave up for Lee in the first place. But it doesn't appear to be. Instead, they've given up seven of their own guys - guys who they drafted and developed and know very well - to get a pitcher who's only slightly better than the one they gave had and three other prospects about whom they don't know nearly as much. It just doesn't add up to me.

Yankee Bowl To Freeze Winter Classic Out Of Stadium?

Good morning Fackers. We've been pretty critical here about the Yankees' desire to host football games, including a college bowl game for the next three years, at Yankee Stadium.

Last year, there was talk of the old Yankee Stadium hosting the NHL's Winter Classic as a sort of final sendoff. For a number of reasons it didn't pan out, but one would imagine Yankee Stadium is still in the running for the future. Except the Stadium's football commitments might make that a problem. Puck Daddy takes a look:

This is a problem if you're planning on the NHL hosting a hockey game on New Year's Day in the next few seasons. Even if the bowl game was played on Christmas Day, that would give the NHL six days to prepare not only the rink, but also the stadium to their standards and the Winter Classic isn't an event, especially in New York, that the League will look to rush in and out of quickly. As we're seeing in Boston, the NHL wants to use their portable rink in as many entertaining and profitable ways possible. Not to mention the bowl game organizers would have to breakdown the field in a given amount of time to allow Dan Craig and his crew to get to work. Two high-profile events being held on the same field in such a short period of time would also be a big concern for the Yankees, who do not want to have their maintenance people fixing divots in the field in the months before Opening Day.

The NHL told us that they have a seven-day build out plan for their Winter Classic venues, so Yankee Stadium on New Year's Day between 2011-2013 seems like a fantasy.

It goes on to speculate that Yankee Stadium could lose out to the new Giants Stadium or (gasp) Citi Field.

Despite being just a two year old tradition, the Winter Classic is one of the best sporting events each year. The NHL shows no indications of abandoning their new found New Year's tradition. In fact, yesterday there was talk of expanding the Winter Classic to include a Canadian game. Perhaps such an expansion might allow for a Canadian game on New Year's and a game at Yankee Stadium some days later.

This year's Classic is at Fenway Park, where the ice is already down. In typical Fenway fashion, the ownership group will try to maximize their bottom line on this one, adding open skates, prep school games, and a pair of college games to the schedule over the next several weeks. I'll be there to see Boston College face Boston University on January 8th. I hope that I have the opportunity to see an outdoor hockey game at Yankee Stadium one day too.

Wednesday, December 16, 2009

Yankees Top Ten Prospects Announced

Baseball America released their list of the Yankees' top ten prospects today. Head over and give it a read; lots of good stuff there.

Some thoughts:
  • The Yankees top talent is at all the right places: on the mound and up the middle skill positions. The top ten is comprised of five pitchers, four catchers, and a center fielder. Don't get too hung up as to where there will be room for everyone. These are the types of players that are the most valuable trade chips.

  • There is 50% turnover from last year's top ten list. Alfredo Aceves, Phil Coke, and Mark Melancon all graduated to the Major League level, though I believe Melancon can still be considered a prospect due to not having accrued enough MLB service time. Austin Jackson was the key chip in the Curtis Granderson trade, and Bradley Suttle dropped off the list after missing all of last year due to shoulder injuries.

  • The list is a testament to how well the Yankees have rebuilt their system in recent years. Slade Heathcott and JR Murphy are the Yankees top two 2009 draft picks. Gary Sanchez was the organization's top 2009 international signee. Jeremy Bleich was the Yankees top signed pick from the 2008 draft; Manny Banuelos was an international free agent that year. Andrew Brackman and Austin Romine were the club's top two picks in 2007; Arodys Vizcaino was an international signing that year. Twenty year old Jesus Montero and twenty two year old Zach McAllister have been with the organization the longest, both since 2006.

  • This is a very green list. We know the Yankees are thin at the top levels of the system. None of the 10 players on the list played above AA last year, although McAllister did make a playoff start for AAA Scranton. Montero and Bleich both saw time at AA Trenton last year, but McAllister is the only one on the list to spend all of 2009 above A ball. While it's great to have that much young talent, such talent is also less projectable. There's less probability for prospects who have yet reach AA to pan out.

  • The Yankees top talent is also extremely, extremely young. At 24, Brackman is the oldest of the ten. Sanchez is the youngest at 16 and is one of five players on the list who is not yet twenty years old.

  • The list breaks down to six draft picks and four international signings.

The link also runs down the organization's top skills:
  • Montero of course is rated as both the best hitter and best hitter for power.

  • Mike Dunn, who will be in the mix as a second lefty option out of the bullpen, has the best slider.

  • Despite having four other catchers ranked ahead of him overall, Francisco Cervelli still grades out as the best defensive backstop.

  • Recent Rule 5 pick Jamie Hoffmann is listed as the best defensive outfielder.

  • Ramiro Pena is rated as the best defensive infielder; Eduardo Nunez has the best infield arm, and Reegie Corona was given the nod over Kevin Russo as having the best plate discipline. All four are on the 40 man roster and figure to compete for the utility infielder job in Spring Training.

  • Juan Miranda currently sits atop the DH depth chart but is not rated at all by Baseball America.

  • Melky Mesa, a single A outfielder who has less plate discipline than his namesake and is considered a non-prospect, rates as both the fastest baserunner, best athlete, and best outfield arm.

Fiesty Small Market Underdogs Near Luxury Tax Threshold

Good morning, Fackers. Any guesses as to the identity of the team in the headline? From WEEI:
The signings of John Lackey to a five-year deal in the $82.5 million range and Mike Cameron to a two-year, $15.5 million contract would push the Sox payroll — as calculated for Major League Baseball’s luxury tax purposes — to an all-time franchise high.

Based on salary projections for the players who were offered contracts last Saturday, the Sox are already nearing the $170 million threshold for 2010 at which clubs will be assessed a luxury tax penalty.
It might have been the acquisitions of Lackey and Cameron that put the Sox very close to the Luxury Tax threshold, but as Matthew Pouliot from Circling the Bases points out, the deals given to their homegrown players are a big factor as well:
Prior to last year, the team was so conscious of its position straddling the luxury tax that it avoided signing young players to long-term deals. That changed as Dustin Pedroia, Kevin Youkilis and Jon Lester all received extensions that kept them into their free agent years.

And it's those contracts that could put the Red Sox over the top. In reality, those three players, all of whom signed extensions last winter, will earn $16.375 million next season. However, for tax purposes, they're valued at $23.03 million.
The WEEI article provides a player by player estimate of the Sox salaries as they pertain to the Luxury Tax and a breakdown of some of the nuances involved in how the league calculates payroll for it. As far as the MLB is concerned, deals which buy out some arbitration years like the ones singed by Kevin Youkilis, Dustin Pedrioa and Jon Lester are all taxed at the average annual value of the deal meaning that, although Lester is making $3.75M this year, the Sox pay tax on the AAV of his 5 year, $30M deal.

The Luxury Tax is structured like the taxes we pay to the government, so it only applies to the amount spent over $170M, meaning the amount of money to the Sox will be next to nothing if they do exceed that mark. But the larger point here is that despite the much bemoaned free agent acquisitions the Yankees made last off season, when the dust settles, the two teams are likely to be fairly close (~$30M, 15%) in terms of payroll this year.

To many of the deluded members of Red Sox Nation like the ones who reared their ugly heads here, the Sox are David to the Yankees' Goliath, when in reality, the Sox are playing the role of Goliath to the rest of the league with the exceptions of the Mets and Cubs. Why do Sawx fans cling to the belief that their team is one of the "have nots"?

Part of this is the fact that Boston itself actually is a small market. The city itself has a population of about 600,000 and even expanding to the Greater Boston Area encompasses fewer than 5 million people. However, the Red Sox have a monopoly on the territory that stretches from Maine through New Hampshire, most of Massachusetts, Rhode Island and about half of Connecticut. There isn't one truly large city in that region, but there are a whole lot of small towns. Add them all up and you are pretty close to 10 million people.

Another factor is that deal just given to John Lackey will actually be the second largest in terms of total dollars that the Red Sox have on their books (behind only Matsuzka's if you include the posting fee). A.J. Burnett was given the same exact deal from the Yankees, but it's only the 5th largest the team has on the books, trailing A-Rod, Jeter, Teixeira and Sabathia. This is a positive for the Sox in that they have more future flexibility without those long term commitments, but it also means that they continually have to either develop players from their system or find new free agents to fill their needs.

Do the Sox do this because they can't afford those longer deals or because they typically choose not to employ that strategy? Since they committed over $100M to Matsuzaka and went down to the wire with the Yanks on Teixeira, I would guess it is the latter.

There is a chance that the Sox will have a significantly lower payroll than the Yankees 3, 4 or 5 years from now, but there is also a chance that their prospects don't pan out and they are forced to overpay for stop gaps like Marco Scutaro, John Smotlz and Brad Penny as opposed to having elite but aging players already under contract.

Such is the trade off between living by the seat of your pants and making long term investments in blue chip players. However, at the present moment, the difference between those two strategies in terms of dollars spent isn't especially significant.

Tuesday, December 15, 2009

The Divergent Paths Of Matsui & Wang

The Yankees signed two bona fide stars from Asian countries in the 2000's. After the disasters that were Katsuhiro Maeda and Hideki Irabu and before the debacle of Kei Igawa, Chien-Ming Wang and Hideki Matsui played vital roles on the team this decade.

Wang was acquired all the way back in 2000, starting at the one of the lowest levels of professional ball the Yankees could place him in (the short season NYPL) and didn't make his Major League Debut until 2005. On the opposite end of the spectrum, Hideki Matsui arrived via much fanfare after winning both the Central League MVP and Japan Series title in 2002 and joined the Yankees out of Spring Training in '03.

The graphic below follows the careers of the two men, both of whom are athletic heros in their respective countries. In many ways, left the Yankees the same way they came to them; Matsui a champion and a hero and Wang an unwanted minor leaguer. It shows in their salaries as well. Matsui has already made $73M in the United States and is due $6.5 more while Wang netted about $10M between the Majors and Minors and will have to take when he is given from his next team.
  1. The Taiwanese right hander was signed as an amateur free agent in 2000 and made his debut pitching in the short season New York Penn League for the Staten Island Yankees. He had a fantastic first season, throwing 87 innings at a 2.45 ERA.

  2. Wang injured his shoulder and missed the entire 2001 season. However, he rebounded nicely in 2002, compiling a 1.72 ERA over 78 1/3 innings.

  3. Amidst much hype, Hideki Matsui was signed as a free agent from the Yomiuri Giants of Japan and given a Major League contract. Expectations varied but many expected his prodigious power to carry over from Japan. He hit only 16 home runs his first year but did rack up 42 doubles.

  4. During 2003 and 2004, Chien-Ming made most of his ascent through the Yankees' minor league system. He began at Rookie ball in Tampa, and jumped to AA by the end of '03. Despite an ERA in the 4.00's during his time in Trenton, he made it to AAA by the end of 2004.

  5. Hideki Matsui's ostensible prime as a Yankee came in 2004 and 2005. He played in every game in both years, hit .302/.378/.509, averaged 27 home runs and 112 RBIs while striking out scarcely more than he walked.

  6. 2005 was the year that Wang made the jump to the Big Leagues. He wasn't pitching spectacularly in Scranton but when Jaret Wright got injured the Yankees were forced to call him up. He pitched 7 innings of two run ball in his first start and ended up sticking with the team for the rest of the season, going 8-5 with a 4.02 ERA in 17 starts.

  7. In May of 2006, Matsui broke his wrist attempting to make a catch in the outfield, ending his season and his consecutive games streak of 1768 which he had carried over from Japan. He was in the middle of a solid offensive season, hovering at a 128 OPS+ through 51 games.

  8. Wang's peak as a Yankee was high but it was also steep, lasting only two complete seasons. In 2006 and 2007, just as Matsui was relegated to the background, Wang burst onto the scene. He won 38 games in those two years (the most in the Majors during that time) and pitched 417 1/3 innings of 3.67 ERA ball.

  9. Matsui re-emerged in 2007 but injuries to his knees and hamstrings limited his defensive ability and he appeared in 143 games, 112 in left field. In 2008 he was injured again, appearing in only 93 games and putting up a 108 OPS+, the lowest of his career.

  10. On June 15th, 2008, Wang's career entered a downward spiral from which he has not recovered. He missed the rest of the '08 season and when he returned in 2009, he couldn't have been much worse, surrendering 23 runs in 6 innings in his first three starts. The Yanks jerked Wang around (/obligatory) calling him up after only two minor league starts after Joba Chamberlain got hit with a line drive. He alternated between the bullpen and the rotation for 9 more appearances before being placed on the disabled list July 15th and undergoing shoulder surgery.

  11. Hideki Matsui rebounded in 2009, having one of his better offensive seasons strictly at the Yankee DH. He hit 28 homers and drove in 90 runs despite playing in only 142 games. Of course, his career as a Yankee was capped over with a resplendent World Series recognized by the MVP award. He just signed a $6.5M contract with the Angels.

  12. In the process of rehabbing his shoulder injury, Chien Ming Wang waits in limbo. The Yankees declined to tender him a contract and he doesn't figure to be ready to pitch until May at the earliest. As such, he may wait until then to sign his contract.

Sayonara Hideki-San

Good morning Fackers. Well I would have bet you a dollar that last week's Winter Meetings would be the peak of the Hot Stove League. Then yesterday happened. We'll get to all the hullabaloo a little later on today, but the only proper way to lead off this morning is to bid a fond farewell and thank you to Hideki Matsui for seven years of good and loyal balky-kneed service.

Matsui came to the the Yankees from the Yomiuri Giants as a free agent following the 2002 season. While Ichiro experienced unprecedented success in his first two years in the Big Leagues, other Japanese postion players - Tsuyoshi Shinjo and So Taguchi - had not been as successful. Matsui was the first slugger to come out of Japan and no one quite knew what to expect. Bolder predictions forecasted as many as fifty home runs; others weren't quite so optimistic.

Early on at least, the pessimists were right. After an Opening Day grand slam, Matsui had a difficult time adjusting to two seamers and sinking fastballs. He perpetually flailed at pitches on the outer part of the plate, trying to pull everything - a habit he's yet to outgrow. It seemed as if every other at bat saw Matsui rolling over one and grounding weakly to second. Through his first fifty eight games - more than a third of his first Major League season - Matsui was hitting .250/.299/.357 with just 3 HRs. He had grounded in to eight double plays, most of them surely of the 4-6-3 variety as he tried again and again to pull the pitch low and away.

Matsui struck bottom in an early June interleague series in Cincinnati. The Yankees were 33-23, leading Boston by a game and a half, Toronto by two, and Baltimore by four and a half. Despite their record, they were playing listless baseball, foreshadowing the early portions of seasons to come. Prior to the opening game of the season, George Steinbrenner named Derek Jeter as the eleventh captain in Yankee history. Matsui went just 1 for 8 over the next two games, dropping his triple slash line to its lowest mark of the season. But he was about to get right.

In the series finale, dropped to seventh in the order, Matsui went 4 for 5 with three doubles, a home run, two runs scored, and three RBI. He hit .311/.385/.485 with 13 HR over the season's final 105 games, finishing with a respectable .287/.353/.435 line in finishing second to future Yankee legend Angel Berroa in the AL Rookie of the Year voting. He wouldn't look back for the remainder of his Yankee career.

After extremely productive seasons in 2004 and 2005, Matsui's body began to betray him in 2006. Off to another solid start, he broke his wrist in May 2006 game as he attempted a diving catch in left field. The injury cost him 111 games and relegated him almost exclusively to DH duty upon his return. In 2007 and 2008 Matsui's knees, abused from years playing on the astroturf of the Tokyo Dome, did him in. He required surgery on his right knee after the '07 season and on his left during the '08 season. Relatively healthy in 2009, he bounced back with his best season in four years, culminating with the World Series MVP.

More than just his significant offensive production in the middle of the line up, Matsui's professionalism will be missed. He was quiet - not all of it due to the language barier - dignified, and well respected by teammates, announcers, media, fans, and opponents alike. Outside of the "core four" he was the most-tenured Yankee. Now he's the newest Angel.

The Yankees easily could have matched the more-than-reasonable $6.5M, one year deal Matsui received from the Angels. But, with Matsui's physical limitations, he wasn't priority number one - or even priority number three this off-season. The club wasn't willing to make a decision on him until other situations resolved, and that thought process didn't change even when Matsui was willing to accept a very team-friendly offer. It's not a pleasant outcome, but it's what the off-season plan dictates. For the second consecutive year it appears the Angels will get themselves a helluva bargain on a former Yankee.

So thanks Hideki. And good luck to you, except of course during the ten or so times the Angels and Yankees meet next year. It's been a fun seven years Godzilla, but now, they say he's got to go.