Chasing The Dragon: Baseball's Quest To Conquer China

When the Yankees face the Red Sox tomorrow night, the largest viewing audience might not be in the United States:

For the first time, Major League Baseball's season opener will be televised live in China, broadcast by five outlets reaching nearly 300 million viewers, MLB announced Friday. The All-Star Game, postseason games and "This Week in Baseball" also will be broadcast in China this year as part of baseball's partnerships with 90 international broadcasters.

It's hard to tell how many of those 300 million Chinese residents who have the option of watching the first game of the regular season will actually tune into the broadcast. After all, it will be about 8:15 on Monday morning in Shanghai and Beijing when the first pitch is thrown.

Aside from American ex-pats, there are few MLB fans in China, especially in comparison to the population of over 1.3 billion. While around 16% of Chinese residents surveyed say they are interested in baseball, fewer than one percent of identify themselves as "loyal fans". Furthermore, that survey likely overestimates the interest due to sampling error. It's impossible to project the results of that study onto the entire population considering that there are hundreds of millions of Chinese that lack access to phone and close to a billion without internet connections and therefore couldn't be reached by conventional survey means.

However, where some might see a country that doesn't care much about baseball, Major League Baseball sees a tremendous opportunity.

After witnessing basketball achieve true global success - now with established professional leagues on all six inhabited continents - the MLB has become increasingly tantalized by the international market. While the sporting landscape in the United States is becoming more saturated by the day, baseball envisions adding new fans by popularizing the game overseas. China, with its massive population, appears to be the largest and potentially most profitable untapped resource for the expansion of the game.

Xie Long, the managing director of MLB China explained, "I believe the sport of baseball has tremendous potential in China. What MLB wants is to agitate this big market and get more people playing baseball in China".

The World Baseball Classic was established with the goal of expanding the game abroad in mind. While the title of the tournament is ultimately decided between countries with established baseball traditions like the U.S., Japan, the Dominican Republic, Venezuela and South Korea, encouraging nations like the Netherlands, South Africa and especially China to field teams demonstrates that there are other motives at work. By tapping into national pride via international competition, baseball believes it can generate interest in the sport on a level that extends beyond a tournament that only happens once every three years.

As the largest and most widely recognized name in baseball and in all of American sports, the Yankees have been leading the charge throughout China. They have some goals that are separate from the MLB's (selling Yankee-branded merchandise, etc) but the ultimate aim is the same - to generate interest in the sport worldwide.

Back in early February, executives representing the team embarked on a week-long trip - with their newest World Series trophy in tow - throughout Asia. They stopped in Hong Kong, Beijing and Tokyo, shaking hands, posing for pictures and participating in events and ceremonies. Brian Cashman and Randy Levine were at the front of the pack, glad-handing their way through China and Japan, giving out free Yankees shirts and caps.

Due to the presence of Hideki Matsui on their roster over the past seven years and the ubiquity of baseball in Japan, Tokyo was an obvious stop. The presence on the Chinese capital (Beijing) and its financial center (Hong Kong) on the itinerary were less self-explanatory.

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Baseball has been played in China for almost 150 years, beginning when an American medical missionary and native New Yorker named Henry William Boone started spreading the game there with a missionary zeal in the early 1860's. However, today, like it did then, baseball exists only fringe of the Chinese sporting landscape, far behind pursuits like basketball, badminton and table tennis.

In the first years of its introduction to China, baseball quickly began to develop a foothold. The Shanghai Baseball Club was created shortly after Boone first began teaching the game and served as a posh social establishment for the next forty or so years. Around the same time, students in the Chinese Educational Mission began traveling to the United States and returned to their home country with a fondness for what, at that point, was a quirky and decidedly American game.

By the mid-1890's three western-oriented colleges in China had organized baseball teams. But it wasn't until 1905 that a game was staged between two all-Chinese squads on the mainland. After the Russo-Japanese War, which ended that same year, many Chinese students flooded into Japan, where inter-collegiate baseball had become Nippon's preeminent national sport.

While baseball was still far from common in China, it began to attain some historical and political significance in the 1910's. Sun Yat-sen, who learned the game during the spent time in Hawaii as a teenager, was said to have used baseball as a way to train soldiers to throw hand grenades in Changsha, the notoriously unstable capital of the Hunan Province. Years later, soldiers in the People's Liberation Army would embrace the game to such an extent that it would be commonly referred to as "junqiu" or "army ball".

Despite the country's early introduction to baseball, its popularity among students returning from abroad and the game's intertwinement with military history, baseball never achieved the popularity it did in Japan, Korea, Taiwan or even the Philippines. A legitimate professional league was never established, much less embraced.

Eventually, during the reign of Mao Zedong, baseball all but disappeared from China's sporting landscape. Some historians claim that the sport was explicitly banned because it was perceived as a symbol of "Western decadence", but whether or not that was the case, the spread of the game was squelched by Mao's ethnocentric Cultural Revolution.

After Chairman Mao's death in 1979, baseball slowly began to reemerge. Coaches from the U.S. were sent on goodwill missions. The game was used as a vehicle of diplomacy between China and Japan. Youth leagues began to sprout up. This time though, the Chinese took their cues from Japanese style of play instead of the American one.

Major League Baseball's involvement in China didn't begin in earnest until Dodgers' president Peter O'Malley made a visit to the Tianjin Physical and Cultural Center Institute in 1986 and paid for a baseball field to be constructed there. Ever since, the MLB has been making inroads into China, ranging from the grand gestures like the ones made by O'Malley - and more recently by the Yankees - to grassroots efforts to introduce the game to the school systems and establishing youth baseball academies and development centers.

The Yankees, like many of the larger MLB franchises, are particularly tantalized by the untapped resources of talent China may hold. Discovering a player with superstar talent could accelerate the spread of the came throughout the country in ways no contrived ceremonies, press tours, or even youth academies could hope. An article from The Economist explains:

Somewhere in China, reasons Mr Cashman, there is a kid who can throw a baseball at 98mph (158kph). Find him, turn him into a star and he will awaken a nation of fans. He points to the spectacular commercial success of America’s National Basketball Association (NBA) in China after the recruitment of the seven-and-a-half-foot Yao Ming, from Shanghai, to the Houston Rockets, whose jerseys are a ubiquitous presence on the backs of Chinese children.

Just based on sheer probability, there has to be a Yao Ming of baseball in China, somewhere, right? Maybe he's working in a rice paddy or toiling away in a factory, oblivious to the talents he possesses. Perhaps he's fishing somewhere on the Yangtze River or working in a marketplace in Shanghai. With such a massive number of capable and athletic men calling the the Peoples' Republic home, there has to be a few who would be good at baseball if given the chance, doesn't there?

Unfortunately, it's not that simple.

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Basketball has been alive and well in China for over 100 years. James Naismith created the game at a YMCA in Springfield, Massachusetts in 1891 and within four years it had traveled across the Y's worldwide network all the way to China. Basketball has been a part of Chinese culture almost as long as baseball has been played in Japan.

Baseball was introduced in Japan in 1872 and it took another 92 years for the first Japanese player, Masanori Murikami, to reach the Major Leagues. To be sure, there were a host of technological and cultural factors that hindered that initial introduction like arduous and expensive travel and rampant xenophobia that won't prevent the first Chinese player from making that trip. However, the notion that any country harbors Major League talent based on sheer probability is slowly being eroded.

Yao Ming wasn't just discovered by chance. His parents were both professional basketball players and in addition to being freakishly tall and athletic, Yao devoted countless hours to perfecting his craft during his teenage years. He started playing professionally at age 17, and was pressured to enter the NBA draft at 19 but held out until he was 22. When he finally declared his eligibility, he was surrounded by a team of advisors who carefully controlled every aspect of his professional life. Although he was bestowed a great set of genes, Yao wasn't born a great basketball player.

To an even greater extent, great baseball players are made, not born. Yao's 7' 6" frame gives him a physical advantage that doesn't have an analog in baseball. His height allows his easy access to the hoop whereas there are no distinguishing bodily features that guarantee an advantage in baseball. A perfect physiology isn't as important as an ideal throwing motion or batting swing and those have to be honed over time with the assistance of knowledgeable coaches.

In addition to its considerable history in the country, basketball has a lower learning curve than baseball. It requires less - and less expensive - equipment and can be played in a smaller area either indoors or out. In terms of rules and fundamentals, it's far simpler than baseball too.

As Chris Jaffe demonstrated in his book Evaluating Baseball's Managers, widespread knowledge of what are now considered to be the fundamentals of baseball are slow to form. Jaffe explains:

Fundamentals first have to be developed. Then they diffuse. Next, their instruction becomes institutionalized. Once the lessons become second nature to one generation, the next wave can be fully and immediately immersed in them.

It took baseball decades to establish the baseline of common knowledge of the game that we now take for granted. Kids in China don't grow up watching baseball games. They don't play stickball in the streets. They mostly choose between basketball, badminton and table tennis. There is no sport with significant popularity similar to baseball like cricket in India. There isn't even one that requires a hard throwing motion which could be roughly translated to pitching.

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Two years ago, a California sports management company created a reality show called The Million Dollar Arm to try to coax pitching talent out of India, offering a prize of $100,000 and the chance to compete for a $1M contract to the winner. Eventually, out of 37,000 entrants, two were chosen. Danesh Patel threw 90 mph during his tryout and won the top prize. Rinku Singh clocked in at 84 and was given $2,500 along with the chance to play in the minor leagues. Their management company held a tryout attended by 30 Major League scouts. Singh and Patel were signed by the Pirates for $10,000 apiece.

They were eventually assigned to the Pirates Rookie Ball team in Bradenton, Florida where they recorded a buoyant account of their journeys in broken English on a blog that carried the same name as the contest. Combined, Patel and Singh each recorded a win but only pitched a total of 18 2/3 innings in their first season. They returned to India last fall and are back in minor league Spring Training now.

Although the Million Dollar Arm contest only staged tryouts in 12 cities, it sampled a wide swath of talent in India, a country which has a fondness for cricket - baseball's closest sporting relative. If the best a nationwide search in India with a (potential) million dollar prize could produce were two low level minor leaguers without much chance of making the Big Leagues, much less becoming a star in them, is it realistic to expect China to do much better?

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Spreading a sport to a new country, especially a game as complex, equipment heavy and open-space-dependent as baseball to a nation as impoverished and overcrowded as China, is a tough road to hoe. It's going to require the same missionary enthusiasm employed by Henry William Boone when the game was first introduced to the residents of Shanghai back in the 1860's, along with money. Lots and lots of money.

As baseball officials discovered in their quest to provide funding to a youth program in Cambodia, it requires not only a significant amount of cappital but close and careful oversight of the way those funds are allocated. Where money is being given away, there will always be those who are willing to take it but don't have the ultimate goal in mind.

Even if the programs are successful, will they end up like youth soccer in America where the participation rates are high but yield relatively few fans of the highest levels of the game? Right now the MLB claims that over four million people in China play baseball, but before this most recent initiative, MLB games were hardly televised at all.

The MLB has to consider its efforts in China as a long term investment and one that might not pay dividends for decades, if ever. However, Jim Small, vice president of MLB Asia thinks it could happen faster than that:

We plan on taking advantage of the dynamic climate that is taking place in China right now. With so many things changing so quickly, with information much more accessible through the internet and through other means, it is possible to make changes much quicker now than 10 years ago.

Will those in the People's Republic be watching when the Yankees and Red Sox meet in Fenway on Sunday night? Will they remember to watch the All-Star game when it rolls around three and a half months from now and the postseason 11 weeks after that?

When it comes to expanding the interest in the game of baseball worldwide, China represents the largest potential gain. But that doesn't mean that it's the best bet. It doesn't even necessarily mean that it's a risk worth taking. However the MLB, like any corporation, is set up with the implicit goal of infinite growth and profits. When viewed through that lens, China appears to be a gamble baseball has to take.

Prediction Round Up

There isn't a whole lot of variety in these, but I wanted to consolidate the predictions that we asked everyone to make at the end of the AL East interviews we did this week.

Here are the interviews with our fantastic guests:

Jonah Keri on the Rays

Daniel Moroz on the Orioles

Patrick Sullivan on the Red Sox

Drunk Jays Fans on the Blue Jays

And everyone's predictions in graphical from, including Matt's and mine:

There you have it folks. According to our panel of experts, there is a 100% chance that the Yankees win the AL East this season!

Actually, that's not what it means at all. You can't divine overall probabilities based on individual predictions (in this scenario at least). For instance, let's say that we are going to flip a coin that has a 60% chance of coming up heads and a 40% chance of landing on tails. Which one are you going to pick? Well everyone that's not a moron is going to pick heads. As a result, you'd end up with something like 95% of people choosing heads with the remainder of the superstitious dummies telling themselves that "tails never fails". And that doesn't reflect the actual probability of the event. It's the kind of thing that happens when you have some rational people looking at similar data.

Realistically, what this means is that the Yanks are in the neighborhood of 50-45-40%, the Sox are 35-30-25% and the Rays are 30-25-20%. Or something? I don't know but the midpoints sum to 100 and that sounds about right. Take it from me, I predicted the correct order that the AL East would finish in last year and had every team's total within 5 wins. (What's that you say? I also had the Mets playing the Cubs in the NLCS? Nevermind that.)

Anyway, that's it for today. We'll have some good stuff running over the weekend, so in the unlikely event that you need a break from the awesome weather that is forecasted for the northeast, we'll be there for you.

AL East Q&A: Drunk Jays Fans

And now it's time for the final installment of our quest to survey the landscape of the AL East. After this, we can all stick our heads back up our asses and go back to only caring about the Yankees and the team they are playing at the time.

In some ways I think we've saved the best for last. Drunk Jays Fans has been providing the kind of vulgarity and analysis that we at Fack Youk strive for since the very beginning of 2007 - back when this blog was just a couple of pixels in a server in White Plains. Andrew Stoeten and Dustin Parkes might be drunk, but they are kindly drunks. One of the signature offerings on their site are the helpful guides which explain things like how to delude yourself into believing your team will still make the playoffs and how to sneak down into good seats at the Rogers Centre. They also do a post each year breaking down the most prominent Blue Jays-related blogs on the interwebs which is well worth the read. Now they well help us make sense of where the Toronto Blue Jays are at heading into the 2010 season:

FY: For the first time since 2002, the Jays' Opening Day starter will not be Roy Halladay. How are you dealing with the loss? Are you satisfied with the package that the team got in exchange for Doc? Could Kyle Drabek help the Big League club this year?

Dustin Parkes: Jays fans have had so little to cheer for outside of every fifth day when Roy Halladay would start otherwise meaningless games that removing him from the team is like cutting off the index fingers of a thumbless man. It hurts for now, but if there's hope that the procedure somehow leads to having Antonio Alfonseca hands in the future, the pain becomes berable.

While no one is going to replace Halladay to Toronto's fan base, as far as the package that the Jays got in return, Brett Wallace can definitely fill out a pair of trousers. And Kyle Drabek and Travis d'Arnaud aren't too shabby either.

I recently saw one of those Jim Bowden videos on FOXsports.com where he interviews baseball executives on a webcam (because he just like totally gets social media and internetty things). In the episode that I saw, Bowden spoke with all of the GMs involved in the Halladay deal, and while Alex Anthopoulos doesn't come right out and say it, it's fairly clear that he got the best deal he possibly could have.

Considering that Roy Halladay in his prime couldn't help the Blue Jays out of their mediocrity, it's doubtful that Drabek, Wallace or d'Arnaud will supply anything close to an immediate impact. However, if Toronto's playoff drought has been good for anything, it's been in developing patience and all Jays fans have right now is the hope that things will improve, and this threesome makes that hope more realistic than it's ever been.

FY: Thirty-two year old Bronx native Randy Ruiz was excellent at the plate for Toronto over 130 plate appearances last year, smacking 10 home runs (3 against the Yanks) and accumulating a line of .313/.385/.635. How does he fit into the picture this year? Will he finally see significant playing time in the Majors after 10+ years spent almost exclusively as a farmhand?

Andrew Stoeten: He doesn't really fit into the picture, and it's unfortunate, but there just isn't a realistic place to put him-- especially with a manager like Cito, who would love nothing more than to fill out the exact same lineup card every day of the season. (Ugh). Most fans, I think, would love to see the Jays give Ruiz a genuine shot, but not if it means watching Adam Lind butcher balls out in left field all year, or anybody other than Lyle Overbay attempting to corral all the throws Edwin Encarnacion is going to try to launch into the first row.

It's funny, because this year's Jays are exactly the kind of team that should be giving a guy like Ruiz a chance to show he's not just a AAAA player, but barring injury I really don't see it happening. Even if Overbay is eventually moved, it will open the door more for Wallace than Ruiz.

Perhaps if he makes good use of the few at bats he's given something will change, but as far as it seems now, as usual, it's a longshot.

FY: The Jays signed Cuban prospect Adeiny Hechevarria to a $10M deal in March and rumor has it that he passed on a larger offer from the Yankees. How do you feel about the acquisition and how high in the farm system is he going to start the season?

Stoeten: There's really nothing not to like about the deal. Ownership and the new GM have said repeatedly that, while they're not going to spend money just to spend it, they've still got capital, and they're open to anything that they believe will help the club in the long run. Not only does the Hechevarria deal add the kind of potential asset that, as Alex Anthopoulos likes to say, doesn't often become available, it also shows ownership's willingness to put their money where their mouth is.

Most expect him to start at New Hampshire in Double-A, which sounds reasonable-enough to me.

FY: Aaron Hill broke out with 36 homers (more than twice his highest previous total) and a .357 wOBA last year (also a personal best), but his OBP (.330) was slightly lower than his career mark. IS HE ON STEROIDS? In all seriousness, what are the chances he can duplicate or improve on his production this season? Where do you think he ranks among the very deep second base crop in the AL East?

DP: Here's my theory on the Aaron Hill power surge: While he was out with a concussion for most of 2008, the only thing he could do was lift weights. He managed to beef up a bit and it resulted in a more powerful swing. However, it would be foolish to expect the same power numbers this year. What we might be able to expect, based on his Spring Training numbers, is a more patient approach at the plate.

Less home runs, but more doubles and walks will still rank Hill as the most valuable second baseman in the AL East, no matter what Dustin Pedroia's brother tries to tell children.

FY: Lastly, how do you think the standings will look when the season comes to a close?

Parkes: Yankees, Rays, Sox, Orioles, Jays.

FY: Thank you gentlemen for your time.

Reconsidering Outfield Alignment

In an unsurprising move, Curtis Granderson was officially named the Yankees' center fielder yesterday. Granderson made but one appearance in left field this spring, so there wasn't much question about where he would play.

That wasn't the story for much of the off-season. Once it became apparent that Brett Gardner would be amongst the starting outfielders, speculation ran rampant as to whether the Yankees would be better served with Gardner or Granderson patrolling center.

Through his first two Major League seasons, Brett Gardner has posted an asburd UZR of 16.7 through nearly 800 innings in center field. Granderson is no slouch defensively, with a UZR/150 of 4.9 in CF through four plus seasons, but recent scouting reports have been critical of his jumps and routes, and his UZRs over the past two years have been -8.9 and 1.6.

Initially, I was in favor of playing Gardner in center. However, with just 86 defensive games in center to his credit, he hasn't accumulated enough playing time to inspire full confidence in his impressive numbers. Further, people far smarter than I am explained that the difference between Gardner in left and Granderson in left was virtually infinitesimal.


In light of that, and knowing that it's no sure thing that Brett Gardner spends the entirety of 2010 as a starter, it's probably best to leave Granderson in center. It should keep him more comfortable as he settles into life as a Yankee and it saves him from having to switch positions again should the club choose to add another left fielder later this year (or in 2o11 since so many can't seem to stop talking about acquiring Jayson Werth or Carl Crawford next year even though not a single pitch has been thrown this year).

Going outside the box for a second here though, is the Yankees' outfield defense best off with Gardner in left? Last month, TYU took a closer look at the defensively maligned Nick Swisher, finding that he actually grades out above average from a range point of view, but his overall UZR is hindered by his poor arm rating. Gardner meanwhile, not only covers a lot of ground, but as we examined last year, he also has a plus arm thanks to his accuracy.

With that in mind, might the Yankees be better served to play Swisher in left where his poor arm won't be as much of a detriment and Gardner in right where his arm could be a greater asset?

Probably not. Gardner's defensive is still plagued by small sample size, particularly when it comes to his arm. Range is far more important than arm when it comes to outfield defense. Left field in the new Stadium isn't as expansive as it was in past incarnations, but it's still big for a corner field. Intuitively at least, the Yankees are probably better off with Gardner in left and Swisher in right, even if the numbers might suggest otherwise right now.

Canadians And Crowes

Good morning Fackers.

Friday at long last. Good Friday. And the final baseball-less Friday until the fall. That's a very good thing.

For those of you who are off today: you're lucky. For those of us who aren't: we're almost there.

We'll be back with more in a bit, including our final AL East preview, courtesy of some drunken Canadians. That ought to help the day go by a bit quicker.

Speaking of Canada, here's a performance from London, Ontario from last September. I suppose the song title is appropriate for today, or inappropriate for today, depending upon your point of view.



And speaking of both Drunk Jays Fans and the Black Crowes, here's DJF's outstanding picture of Jays' pitcher Brian Tallet looking exactly like former Crowes guitarist Marc Ford circa 2005.

Three More Days

And thus concludes another mundane pre-season day Fackers. But take heart: we're getting close. The rain has stopped, the flood waters are receding, and the ark has landed somewhere atop Mount Ararat. It was a beautiful spring day today, and that's what we have in sight for several days more. We're one day closer to baseball.

In fact, we're just three days from Opening Night. Three. More. Days. See you in the morning.

AL East Q&A: Patrick Sullivan

Now we have reached the point in our interview series where we must take a long, hard look at our most hated rivals. While the Yanks went the trade route this offseason, the Red Sox signed four free agents - three starting position players and a starting pitcher -and changed the look of their team significantly.

Here to represent the enemy and make sense of their offseason is Patrick Sullivan from the most excellent Baseball Analysts. Patrick has been writing for BA since 2007 and he was contributing to The House That Dewey Built before Aaron Boone stepped in against Tim Wakefield. He's an OG in this blogging game, so despite the fact that he's a dirty rotten Sawx fan who once went by the moniker "Sully", he deserves our respect. Let's get to it:

Fack Youk: How do you think Lackey, Lester, Beckett, Wakefield/Dice-K and Bucholz stack up against the Yankee quintet of Sabathia, Burnett, Pettitte, Vazquez and Hughes?

Patrick Sullivan: It's a great question. I think I would take Boston's for two reasons. The first is that, Wakefield notwithstanding, they're a bit younger. The other reason is that Clay Buchholz has experienced some Big League starting pitching success, something Hughes cannot yet claim. But really, you could throw both teams' top 6 into a hat and assign 3 each randomly to one team and you would still have to squint to determine whose trio was better. I will also say this. I DO put just the tiniest bit of stock into some of the make-up concerns regarding Vazquez. Those things typically aren't my bag, but I think pitching a quarter of his games against Tampa and Boston could take its toll on him. And by "take its toll" I mean he might merely be very good as opposed to a Cy Young candidate.

FY: Mike Cameron and Adrian Beltre were the two biggest offensive acquisitions of the offseason but they are best known for their defense (although Cameron's strikeout totals and Beltre's testicle are both pretty legendary). With Jacoby Ellsbury shifting to left and Marco Scutaro manning short, how significant do you expect their improvement in the field will be?

PS: I will leave the quantification of the improvements to others but it's not hard to conclude that the Red Sox made some very significant improvements defensively. Last year the Red Sox had a bad center fielder, bad shortstops, and two of the very worst left fielders and third basemen respectively. This season, they might have gold glove candidates at all four positions. What does that mean in terms of runs saved? Not sure, maybe somewhere on the order of 4-6 wins though?

FY: Judging by some of the reaction in the media, it appears that the Sox placed an increased emphasis on defense at the expense of their offense this offseason. Do you think their decision to allow their opponents to hit during one of their halves of an inning was a wise one?

PS: There are real and interesting concerns for mainstream writers to sink their teeth into regarding Boston's offense. You have Youkilis, Pedroia, Beltre, Scutaro and Cameron who all hit right handed. Victor Martinez is not as good from the left side. Jacoby Ellsbury has no split at all. David Ortiz is a shell of himself. It's only J.D. Drew that poses a bigtime threat to righties for the Red Sox and in a division with Garza, Shields, Niemann, Vazquez, Burnett, Hughes, Tillman, Marcum, etc, that could be a real problem.

What the media will do, however, is make vague references to the Red Sox "struggling" on offense this season. They won't quantify it and they won't talk about it relative to the rest of the league, but instead just float concerns. The narrative goes "oh noes, they lost Jason Bay." What nobody wants to acknowledge is how bad their shortstops were last year and that Scutaro will improve them there, and that a full year from VMart and a little Papi bounce back should just about cover the whole Bay-to-Cameron "downgrade". Hey, I guess you need something to write about.

But let's be clear. This is an excellent offense. Victor Martinez is the 2nd best hitting catcher in the AL. Youkilis was the AL's best offensive first baseman last season and Drew was the best right fielder. Pedroia and Scutaro were top-3. Ellsbury's .354 wOBA would have placed him 5th among left fielders in 2009. So what we're really talking about are Beltre, Cameron and Ortiz. And that's fine. But man it must suck to be a Pirates or Royals or Padres fan and hear Red Sox fans and the Boston media bitch because their three worst hitters are Adrian Beltre, Mike Cameron and David Ortiz.

FY: Scutaro is 34 years old and has relatively little in the way of experience at shortstop or full seasons worth of plate appearances under his belt. Have the Sox finally found some stability in that position or is he just another flawed stopgap/placeholder for Jose Iglesias? Any hope left for Jed Lowrie?

PS: I don't know. I like the deal because the Red Sox have money, they need to field a shortstop, and Marco was the best out there. In some ways I think Scutaro's lack of experience may work to his advantage given the lack of wear and tear. Looking at it another way, in his only two seasons as a full-timer, 2008 and 2009, he averaged out as a 3.6 win player.

The Red Sox love his defense and think he can hit at an above average level for a SS. And if he doesn't, Lowrie's there. And if he does but Iglesias is pushing him, Scutaro's ability to play second and third make him a terrific super-utility guy in towards the end of that contract.

FY: David Ortiz got off to an incredibly slow start last year, hitting just.185/.286/.283 with one home run through his first 45 games. However, to our dismay, the reports of his demise were greatly exaggerated and he accumulated a line of .264/.354/.546 with 27 dingers in his final 105. What should we expect from Papi this year?

PS: I have no idea at all but if I had to take a stab I would peel 30 or 40 points off of his slug over the last 105 games and leave his average and on-base about the same. He'll be about an average designated hitter, I think.

FY: Last year the infamous Mr. Youkilis finished with a higher wOBA than Mark Teixeira (.413 to .402) and despite hitting the DL in May, was worth about a half of a win more than the Yanks' first baseman according to FanGraphs. HOW CAN YOU EXPLAIN THIS OBVIOUS MISCALCULATION/INJUSTICE/TRAVESTY? What are the chances that Youk is more valuable than Teix again this season?

PS: I don't think Kevin Youkilis is better than Mark Teixeira, even though he had a better season in 2009. I'm pretty sure Tex won the World Series, though. One thing I will say is that Youkilis is absurdly overlooked. He's a top-10 hitter and an excellent, versatile fielder and yet I wonder how many out there would consider him among baseball's best players. The Boston media and some fans are in hysterics over the loss of Jason Bay asking who in the lineup is a top-tier hitter. Meanwhile, YOUKILIS IS A BETTER HITTER THAN BAY. It's nuts.

FY: Thoughts on the supposedly impending Beckett extension? Better value than Lackey? Than Burnett?

PS: At the numbers being floated, I would like it. But I have written about this at Baseball Analysts quite a bit this off-season. You need to look at each player on a case by case basis, but the pitcher who excels well into his mid-30's is rare. Carrying two of them - Lackey and Beckett - and having them account for a quarter of the payroll or so annually is a significant risk as I see it. What a possible Beckett deal says to me is that the Red Sox think they'll be getting serious contributions from another wave of cheap youngsters soon. And seriously, Casey Kelly is stupidly awesome so I guess I can't blame them on that front.

As for the latter portion of the question, I think Beckett is better than Lackey, who's better than Burnett. There, I said it.

FY: Will Mike Lowell make it through the season as a Red Sock (I refuse to use Sox as a singular)?

PS: Nah.

FY: Lastly, how will the AL East shakeout when it's all said and done?

PS: No clue at all, but how about, Yanks, Sox (Wild Card), Rays, O's, Jays?

Like most, I think New York, Boston and Tampa, in some order, are the AL's three best teams and maybe the best 3 in all of baseball. I just think the Yankees' offense is superior to Boston's by a greater margin than Boston's pitching and defense are to New York's. So they win by a couple games. The Rays scare the ever living hell out of me.

FY: Sounds about right to me. Thanks for your insight, Patrick.

Venditte Traded To Cards; LaRussa Overjoyed

Good morning Fackers. After a rather mundane Spring Training we got some unexpected and exciting news late last night. Fresh off his first, and now only, appearance with the Major League club, the Yankees have traded switch pitcher Pat Venditte to the St. Louis Cardinals, receiving minor league outfielder Daryl Jones in return.

Venditte has posted outstanding numbers through two minor league seasons, but isn't considered a prospect and was only ticketed for high A Tampa despite his success over the past two seasons. In exchange, the Yankees received Jones, a soon-to-be 23 year old outfielder ranked by Baseball America as the number four prospect and best athlete in the Cardinals' system.

I'm disappointed we won't get to see Venditte develop further, especially in light of the considerable buzz his Tuesday appearance created. That said, taking a fringe prospect and flipping him for another team's number four prospect, even from a depleted organization like St. Louis, is a steal. Jones had a breakout 2008 before missing nearly half of last year due to injury. He possesses strong on base skills, good speed, and will help rebuild the missing outfield depth in the Yankees' system.

"We hate to give up a talent like Daryl," said Cardinals manager Tony LaRussa, "He's has a bright future ahead of him as a Major Leaguer. But we couldn't pass up an opportunity to acquire a pitcher like Venditte. I've my eye on him for quite some time. He's a perfect fit for our style of play and I look forward to utilizing him to full extent of his abilities out of our bullpen this year". You can catch the full article here.

AL East Q&A: Daniel Moroz Talks O's

Next up in our AL East Q&A series, we are pleased to welcome one of the best Orioles bloggers on any of the intertubes.

Daniel Moroz is the proprietor of Camden Crazies and a contributor to the excellent Beyond the Box Score. For a sampling of his sabermetric chops, take a look at the five part series (1, 2, 3, 4, 5) that he did exploring Nick Markakis' drop in walks last year. Daniel is also the man behind the sensational Matt Wieters Facts. Please give him your undivided attention.

Fack Youk: Is it true that saying Matt Wieters is perfect would underestimate his abilities?

Daniel Moroz: One of the more amusing parts of the Matt Wieters Facts phenomena has been that my analysis of his actual performance hasn't been all that complementary. He did well – for a catcher - last year, but I don't think he's going to be a dominant force quite yet. I was expecting him to walk a little more than he did in 2009, though (not that it means much) he has been doing that this Spring. An above average bat in 2010 may not make Wieters an MVP candidate, but it should make him one of the better catchers in baseball already - with plenty of room for more development in the coming years.

FY: Aside from Wieters, what young position player on the O's do you have the most hope for going forward? Is it Adam Jones? Nick Markakis? Nolan Reimold?

DM: I have the most hope for Markakis, because we've seen him play at an elite level before with his .306/.406/.491 line from 2008. If he can return to that echelon - largely by getting his walk rate back up - then that would really help the offense. I don't know that Adam Jones can reach those levels with the bat because of his less than stellar plate discipline, but a .300/.375/.500 peak with plus defense in center-field would also be very valuable. Reimold I'm not quite as high on - though I was one of his biggest fans as he was coming up through the minors - as I think he's more of a role player (above average bat, but average to below defense in an outfield corner - average player overall) in the Luke Scott mold than a star. Honestly, I might have more hopes for Felix Pie, who is already a very good defensive outfielder and who could become an above average player if he improves at the plate.

FY: With Brad Bergesen, Chris Tillman, Brian Matsuz, Jake Arrieta and Brandon Erbe the Orioles seem to have a fine crop of young pitchers either already in the MLB or reasonably close to it. Do you think Bergesen can duplicate the success that he had in '09? Will Tillman and Matsuz be breaking camp with the club? Will Arrieta and Erbe contribute this season?

DM: I think Bergesen can largely duplicate his success - getting groundballs and limiting free passes - but I doubt he posts another ERA that low (3.43). He's more of a mid-rotation starter to me, which is less glamorous but certainly still valuable. Matusz will definitely break camp with the club, and might already be the team's best starter (and if not now, then by the end of the year). Tillman will start out the season in the minors - he still needs to work on a few things (more K’s, fewer BB and HR) - with David Hernandez getting the 5th starter spot, but he'll be up before too long and should get plenty of innings in the majors. Arrieta and Erbe might see a cup of coffee at the end of the year, but I don't expect them to really contribute unless there is a big wave of injuries to the first 7-8 guys on the depth chart.

FY: With all this young talent, when should we Yankee fans start to worry about the O's becoming a legitimate threat in the division?

DM: Not this season - or maybe even next - but by 2012 I do expect the O's to be contending with the Yankees (and Red Sox and Rays, and maybe Blue Jays, depending on how quickly they can turn things around). If the Yankees get old quickly and the free agent well starts to run a little dry, then Baltimore might be in a pretty good position to capitalize on it. It's a very tough division though.

FY: What are your feelings on the return of Miguel Tejada? What have you heard about his defensive transition to third base? Does he deserve to be hitting cleanup? What are the chances Josh Bell sees some playing time at the hot corner this year?

DM: I like Tejada, so it's nice to see him back. The contract wasn't bad, and the only reason I didn't think the deal made sense was because it pushed Garrett Atkins to first-base (where he's especially overpaid). He's made 5 errors at third this Spring, but I think he'll adjust relatively well to the position and be average to only a little below. He shouldn't be batting clean-up, since he's maybe the team's 7th best hitter at this point and so should be further down in the line-up. Bell - like Arrieta and Erbe - will probably make an appearance later in the year, but everything I've heard leads me to believe that Miggy is the team's third-baseman for 2010.

FY: And lastly, can you list off the order you think the AL East will finish in this season?

DM: Yankees, Red Sox (Wild Card), Rays ... gap... Orioles, Blue Jays. The top three should be pretty close though.

FY: Daniel, thanks for your time.

Humpday Linkaround

This links came up a little short, kind of like Nick Johnson trying to leg out a double last night:

Ben from River Ave. Blues joined Cliff and Alex from Bronx Banter to do a video preview of the 2009 season. The first part (about pitching) is here, the second one (focusing on the offense) is here and the final installment (concerning the competition) is here.

Two of the characters from that series (Cliff and Ben) join Steve Lombardi from Was Watching and Justin Sablich of the New York Times for part one of a written preview over on their dot com.

Good news: Mark Teixeira is scheduled to take batting practice today.

Mike over at The Yankeeist has rounded up the Spring Training stats for both hitters and pitchers. Nothing to get worked up about - we'll have plenty of time to make a big deal out of small sample sizes when the regular season starts - just something interesting to scan over.

Joe from River Ave. Blues cranked out some excellent pieces yesterday including this one on the delicate balance the front office has to find between winning now, winning later and appeasing the media and this one that looks at the back up plans for each position.

The Yanks are set to spend 16 times more than the Blue Jays on their starting rotation this year. I'm not going to lose any sleep over it, but that's like, a lot.

I should have done this a while ago, but if you'd like to thank Tom Tango for the excellent sabermetric work he's done over the years, head over here and fill out a playing time forecast for the Yanks. Somehow, they are pretty underrepresented at this point and it doesn't take long to do. If you feel like you are familiar enough with another team, do one for them too.

Add Mike Cameron to the list of Red Sox who is inahguably nawt appreciated for his true talents. When will the rest of the country finally acknowledge the players in Boston for their incredible production and work ethic? It's borderline criminal!

Joe Posnanski is asking for help in selecting players for the Bad Baseball Hall of Fame and the nominations are rolling in. The cut offs are 462 1/3 IP for pitchers and 843 PAs for hitters. Any Yankees come to mind?

Ross from NYY Stadium Insider has the scoop on an iPhone app called Venuing that will have features specially designed for sporting event and concert experiences. It will be live in Yankee Stadium, Fenway, Citi Field and Citizens Bank Park when each of them opens this season.

Time Warner is now offering a package that will allow you to watch all of the 127 games that YES carries on your computer, provided you are in the Yanks' market. I'm sure there are some select circumstances where this would be convenient (you don't have cable, but do have high speed internet, etc), but for most of us it doesn't apply. It does, however, illustrate why MLB.tv is blacked out within local areas - because cable companies want the opportunity to charge people themselves. If there was one price people could pay to watch any game, anywhere, these subscription services would be a lot more popular. Not that I'm going to hold my breath for it...

Will Leitch did an excellent review of the movie Fantasyland for New York Magazine's website. I hadn't heard much about the movie before but I definitely want to see it now.

Man, the Mariners have some good advertising and promohshonz.

Finally, I'm not sure if this guy is still taking emails, but if you left a briefcase with $78,383 on the Lower East Side the other day, you might want to claim that.

Maybe you could use some of it to buy a piece of Yankees/television memorabilia.

That's it for now. Our AL East Q&A's roll on at noon.

Garko A Good Fit For Bench Spot

Good morning Fackers. The Yankees made a few more cuts yesterday. Outfielders David Winfree, whom we touched upon briefly last week, and Jon Weber (pictured to the left) were sent to minor league camp. If you are to believe the story being bandied about in various media outlets, Weber, despite leading the organization in the all important category of Spring Training batting average, was farmed out for the sin of being a left handed batter. And I'm sure that has everything to do with it; the fact that Weber is 32 years old with 11 years of professional experience and zero days of Major League service time assuredly has no bearing upon the decision.

The demotions of Weber and Winfree leave Marcus Thames as the only non-roster outfielder left in camp. Thames, unlike Weber, is right handed batter and that's something specific the Yankees are looking for in their fifth outfielder. With Curtis Granderson's well-documented struggles against left handed pitching, lingering concerns about lefty swinging Brett Gardner's ability to hold down an everyday job, and Randy Winn coming off the absolute worst season of a right handed batter vs. lefty pitching in the past 55 years, the team wants a lefty masher for the fifth outfielder spot.

It's been assumed that Thames has all but won the job since Jamie Hoffmann was returned to the Dodgers last week. But, Joe Girardi said last night that Thames is not yet assured a spot, and Brian Cashman has said repeatedly over the past week that the Yankees would continue to monitor the trade market and waiver wire for other options.

Interestingly enough, another option came available just yesterday. The Seattle Mariners have decided to waive Ryan Garko, whom they signed just last month after he was foolishly non-tendered by the Giants. The Mariners, perhaps the most run prevention focused club in baseball, decided that Casey Kotchman's defense, Mike Sweeney's clubhouse presence, and an open roster spot were more valuable to the team, despite Garko's economical $550k contract, two remaining options, and rather potent bat relative to the rest of their roster.

Garko, like Thames, mashes left handed pitching. His career line of .313/.392/.495 in 485 PA against southpaws is actually better than Thames' .256/.329/.516 line in 691 PA. Garko's also four years younger and has two years of arbitration eligibility left.

The potential fly in the ointment is that Garko isn't really an outfielder, with just twelve games of professional experience there. However, Thames is a poor outfielder as well. And with plus defensive players in Gardner and Winn, the team could afford to sacrifice some defensive proficiency in the fifth outfielder spot in exchange for offensive prowess.

Garko is of some value defensively, as he's a passable first baseman and was a catcher for the first three years of his pro career. While he shouldn't ever again don the tools of ignorance unless it's an absolute emergency, his ability to play first would be of use to the Yankees. Nicks Johnson and Swisher figure to be Mark Teixeira's back ups should he need a day off or miss some time due to something like a hit by pitch square on his elbow. The pitfall with that arrangement is that if Teixeira were to miss more a few games at a time, the Yankees would be shifting one of their regulars to first base and replacing him with an offensively inferior player such as Winn. Garko's presence on the roster would safeguard against that.

Garko projects as a close to a 1.0 WAR player this year and his $550k salary is easily absorbable. With two open spots on their 40 man roster and more than $2M of payroll flexibility following the release of Chad Gaudin, the Yankees would be wise to place a claim on Garko if he falls that far down the waiver wire.

AL East Q&A: Jonah Keri On The Rays

With real, live, meaningful baseballing action a mere 104 hours away, today we begin our quest to survey the landscape of the AL East. Over the course of this week, we'll be asking some questions of smart people who can lend their expert insights into the current state of the clubs the Yankees will be tangling with most often during the regular season.

First up, we are proud to welcome someone who as written for numerous reputable publications about baseball, basketball, football, dog shows, finance and (especially) Tim Raines. He's the editor of the Bloomberg Sports Blog, a consummate Canadian, the father of twins and the future author of the greatest book ever written about the Tampa Bay Rays (or the turnaround of any moribund expansion team into an AL Champ via shrewd financial and statistical maneuvering, for that matter). Folks, Jonah Keri is here to field our queries and kick this series off.

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Fack Youk: To some, the acquisition of reliever Rafael Soriano and his $7.5M salary from the Braves seemed a little out of character for the organization. What's your opinion of the Soriano pickup? Important move that could put them over the top or too much to pay for a reliever?

Jonah Keri: No team in baseball has a better understanding of the marginal value of a win than the Rays do. For the Royals, there's no way Soriano would be worth $7.5 million -- not necessarily because the Royals are a small-revenue team, but because the two wins a strong Soriano season gives you don't mean anything in the standings for a lousy KC team. For the Rays, though, two more wins in the standings could mean the difference between going home and playing for their second AL pennant in three years. They needed bullpen help, they gave up virtually nothing to get him (Aki Iwamura, who was leaving anyway, was signed and traded for fungible reliever Jesse Chavez, who was in turn flipped for Soriano), and J.P. Howell's likely trip to the DL, though not something the Rays could have predicted, only underscores how much they needed a strong reliever at the back end of the bullpen.

FY: Considering that Carl Crawford and Carlos Pena are both entering what is likely to be their final year with the team, is there a feeling within the organization that this might be Tampa Bay's best chance to make a deep run into the playoffs for a while?

JK: Not exactly. This is the last chance to win with this particular group of players - that's why the payroll has jumped to $70 million-plus, despite the team's continuing struggles with revenue streams. The good news for 2011 is that the Rays will gain a ton of payroll room with Crawford, Pena, Soriano and a handful of lower-priced veterans coming off the books. They have top prospect Desmond Jennings poised to replace Crawford and an army of great arms in the minors who could be ready by next season to bolster the bullpen. The Rays were lacking for first base options to replace Pena, so they acquired Matt Sweeney as part of the Kazmir deal and signed Cuban first baseman Leslie Anderson to a four-year deal. If both of those options fail, even if they carry a $50 million payroll in 2011, the market for one-dimensional boppers has cratered so dramatically that they should be able to sign a 30-homer guy on the open market to fill the void. The Rays are always balancing present needs with future needs, and they're always acutely aware of how much financial flexibility they have at any given time.

FY: Does their optimal starting lineup have Ben Zobrist at 2nd base with Matt Joyce in right or Zobrist in the outfield while Sean Rodriguez plays second?

JK: The answer is, maybe both. The Rays can always opt to start Rodriguez vs. lefties at 2B with Zobrist in RF, and Joyce in RF vs. righties, with Zobrist at 2B. On the other hand, I'm a big Gabe Kapler fan, and he's proven he can mash lefties (.276/.379/.552 vs. LH last year), so the best option might be to send either Joyce or Rodriguez to the minors and let the situation play out naturally. Right now, Joyce is battling an injury, so the smart money is on Rodriguez getting first crack at it with Joyce starting on the DL. The Rays would be the last team to overreact to spring performance, but Rodriguez's big spring performance certainly hasn't hurt his case, especially given his impressive minor league track record. There's also the possibility that Pat Burrell never regains his old form, in which case the DH spot opens up and all of the above can get ample playing time.

FY: Dioner Navarro, Pat Burrell and B.J. Upton all had surprisingly bad years at the plate in '09. Which of those guys do you think is the best candidate to bounce back this year and why?

JK: Definitely Upton. His 2008 shoulder injury was probably more serious than he let on and may well have negatively impacted his performance last season. He should be healthier this season, he's just 25 years old, and he's put up strong offensive numbers in the past. The beauty part for the Rays is that his defense is good enough to make him a valuable player even if he struggles at the plate. But I think he bounces back nicely with the bat this year anyway.

FY: The Rays won 97 games, the AL East and the AL Pennant in 2008 and then finished just three games over .500 in 2009. Which of those results do you think will more closely resemble their finally tally in 2010?

JK: I'd bet on closer to 97 wins than 84, though it might be close to the mid-point. In a lesser division, I see the Rays as having 95-win talent, maybe even slightly better. Andrew Friedman has called this the most talented Rays team during his entire tenure, and with the additions of Soriano and Kelly Shoppach and maturation of young players like David Price and B.J. Upton, I agree. When you play an unbalanced schedule against the two other elite teams in the American League, though, that's going to take a bite out of your record. At least the Jays could offer an opportunity for the Yankees, Red Sox and Rays to all make up for beating on each other all season.

FY: Last one: What do you think the AL East standings are going to look like when the regular season is over?

JK: Yankees, Rays (Wild Card), Red Sox, Orioles, Jays.

FY: Thanks a million for your time, Jonah.

JK: Sure, thanks for having me.

Injuries And Auditions: 4 More Days 'Til Opening Day

Good morning, Fackers. Yesterday wasn't a particularly good one for the Yankees, injury-wise. It was announced that Alan Horne, who already endured Tommy John surgery now needs surgery to repair an 80% tear in his rotator cuff. He hasn't been fully healthy since 2007 and considering that he'll be at least 28 by the time he pitches again, this looks like the official end for him as far as being a prospect is concerned.

More germane to the Big League club, word came out that Alfredo Aceves is day-to-day with a sore back, something that has been bothering him since last September. This comes on the heels of a poor outing against the Orioles during which he gave up 6 runs in 2+ IP. It's possible that the issue could keep Aceves off the Opening Day roster and make way for Boone Logan, but as of now it appears Alf will get another tune up this Spring and be ready for Sunday.

Most startlingly, Mark Teixeira was hit in the elbow by Jeremy Guthrie. He was in obvious discomfort and was removed from the game immediately after it happened. While the pitch hit Teix directly on the bone, tests revealed that the result is only a contusion and he should be back in the lineup later this week. He opts not to wear protection on his elbow because he's never felt comfortable with an elbow pad and feels like he stands far enough away from the plate, but this was one of the rare times that decision came back to bite him.

Franciso Cervelli was hit by Guthrie later on in the night but was able to stay in the game. However, that didn't keep Joe Girardi from angrily yelling at Guthrie from the dugout after the incident occurred. He explained later, "If you’re having a hard time commanding the fastball inside, I don’t think this is the time to work on it". Not in his back yard, apparently. BANANA, others might say.

Girardi will have something to take his mind of his ailing squad today, however. Switch pitcher Pat Venditte will make the trip to Big League camp and pitch against the Braves in a split squad game at 1:05 tomorrow. Eat your heart out, Tony LaRussa.

The manager said he's wanted to see the ambidextrous reliever "all spring". It's as if Girardi has looked over his entire kingdom and commanded, "Bring me this Janus-armed freak so I can see him for myself!" The manager also likened this clip of Venditte maneuvering for the platoon advantage with a switch-hitting Mets prospect to a "Laurel and Hardy thing" revealing that he is either A) significantly older than he claims, B) a huge nerd or C) both.

Venditte is considered a fringe prospect at best but has had unquestionable success at every level of the minors he's been asked to pitch in. He's currently slated to begin the season in High A-ball (where he finished 2009) but as Neyer points out, if Girardi likes what he sees, Venditte might find himself climbing through the farm system faster than he would have otherwise.

He throws over-the-top in the low 90's from the right - which is his naturally dominant side - and takes a lower arm angle from the left, topping out in the mid-to-high 80's. There are plenty of guys that have his stuff like that in one arm at a time and being able to pitch both ways doesn't mean anything if you can't get Major League hitters out, but tomorrow could be a turning point in Venditte's career. There's no guarantee that he makes it into the game, but with CC Sabathia being limited to 75 pitches and Joe Girardi's self-proclaimed interest in him, there's a good chance. (The game will be on MLB.tv). Let's hope Venditte faces a few batters, does well and Girardi likes what he sees. If all of those things happen, we might be one step closer to seeing "The Freak" in The Bronx.