AL East Q&A: Daniel Moroz Talks O's

Next up in our AL East Q&A series, we are pleased to welcome one of the best Orioles bloggers on any of the intertubes.

Daniel Moroz is the proprietor of Camden Crazies and a contributor to the excellent Beyond the Box Score. For a sampling of his sabermetric chops, take a look at the five part series (1, 2, 3, 4, 5) that he did exploring Nick Markakis' drop in walks last year. Daniel is also the man behind the sensational Matt Wieters Facts. Please give him your undivided attention.

Fack Youk: Is it true that saying Matt Wieters is perfect would underestimate his abilities?

Daniel Moroz: One of the more amusing parts of the Matt Wieters Facts phenomena has been that my analysis of his actual performance hasn't been all that complementary. He did well – for a catcher - last year, but I don't think he's going to be a dominant force quite yet. I was expecting him to walk a little more than he did in 2009, though (not that it means much) he has been doing that this Spring. An above average bat in 2010 may not make Wieters an MVP candidate, but it should make him one of the better catchers in baseball already - with plenty of room for more development in the coming years.

FY: Aside from Wieters, what young position player on the O's do you have the most hope for going forward? Is it Adam Jones? Nick Markakis? Nolan Reimold?

DM: I have the most hope for Markakis, because we've seen him play at an elite level before with his .306/.406/.491 line from 2008. If he can return to that echelon - largely by getting his walk rate back up - then that would really help the offense. I don't know that Adam Jones can reach those levels with the bat because of his less than stellar plate discipline, but a .300/.375/.500 peak with plus defense in center-field would also be very valuable. Reimold I'm not quite as high on - though I was one of his biggest fans as he was coming up through the minors - as I think he's more of a role player (above average bat, but average to below defense in an outfield corner - average player overall) in the Luke Scott mold than a star. Honestly, I might have more hopes for Felix Pie, who is already a very good defensive outfielder and who could become an above average player if he improves at the plate.

FY: With Brad Bergesen, Chris Tillman, Brian Matsuz, Jake Arrieta and Brandon Erbe the Orioles seem to have a fine crop of young pitchers either already in the MLB or reasonably close to it. Do you think Bergesen can duplicate the success that he had in '09? Will Tillman and Matsuz be breaking camp with the club? Will Arrieta and Erbe contribute this season?

DM: I think Bergesen can largely duplicate his success - getting groundballs and limiting free passes - but I doubt he posts another ERA that low (3.43). He's more of a mid-rotation starter to me, which is less glamorous but certainly still valuable. Matusz will definitely break camp with the club, and might already be the team's best starter (and if not now, then by the end of the year). Tillman will start out the season in the minors - he still needs to work on a few things (more K’s, fewer BB and HR) - with David Hernandez getting the 5th starter spot, but he'll be up before too long and should get plenty of innings in the majors. Arrieta and Erbe might see a cup of coffee at the end of the year, but I don't expect them to really contribute unless there is a big wave of injuries to the first 7-8 guys on the depth chart.

FY: With all this young talent, when should we Yankee fans start to worry about the O's becoming a legitimate threat in the division?

DM: Not this season - or maybe even next - but by 2012 I do expect the O's to be contending with the Yankees (and Red Sox and Rays, and maybe Blue Jays, depending on how quickly they can turn things around). If the Yankees get old quickly and the free agent well starts to run a little dry, then Baltimore might be in a pretty good position to capitalize on it. It's a very tough division though.

FY: What are your feelings on the return of Miguel Tejada? What have you heard about his defensive transition to third base? Does he deserve to be hitting cleanup? What are the chances Josh Bell sees some playing time at the hot corner this year?

DM: I like Tejada, so it's nice to see him back. The contract wasn't bad, and the only reason I didn't think the deal made sense was because it pushed Garrett Atkins to first-base (where he's especially overpaid). He's made 5 errors at third this Spring, but I think he'll adjust relatively well to the position and be average to only a little below. He shouldn't be batting clean-up, since he's maybe the team's 7th best hitter at this point and so should be further down in the line-up. Bell - like Arrieta and Erbe - will probably make an appearance later in the year, but everything I've heard leads me to believe that Miggy is the team's third-baseman for 2010.

FY: And lastly, can you list off the order you think the AL East will finish in this season?

DM: Yankees, Red Sox (Wild Card), Rays ... gap... Orioles, Blue Jays. The top three should be pretty close though.

FY: Daniel, thanks for your time.

Game 143: Hey Ninteen

After a late night, things return to normal for the Yankees. Although he'll be setting a new record with every hit that he collects, hype and hoopla surrounding Derek Jeter's ascent up the Yankees all-time hit list will have subsided. The game today won't take on the added feel of importance that has been palpable since the beginning of the homestand, it's just going to feel like another September game against a team that doesn't have anything left to play for.

A.J. Burnett takes the ball today and looks to build upon his last outing. He went six innings and allowed one run against the Rays and with 99 pitches under his belt at the time, might have been asked to go a little deeper had the Yanks not been leading 11-1 at the time.

That outing sprung Burnett from a stretch of 7 starts that brought his ERA up from 3.53 to 4.29 and gave him his first win since July 27th. That span was Burnett's worst of the season, but it had been immediately preceded by his best. The Yankees don't desperately need the games, but it would be awfully reassuring to have Burnett pitching well heading into the postseason.

The only benefit of being out of the picture for so a long time for Orioles fans is that it has allowed them to get a look at some of their young talent. Today, the O's serve up the Yanks with the 10th pitcher to make a start against them this year, Brian Matusz. Drafted out of the University of San Diego with the 4th pick of the 2008 draft, the tall lefty started at high A-ball this year, striking out 75 in 66 innings with a 2.16 ERA and then made the jump to double-A. Despite a drop in his strikeout rate in AA, Matusz was even better in the Eastern league, posting an ERA of 1.55 and averaging 6 2/3 innings per start. The O's called him straight up to the Big Leagues in the beginning of August and he's made 7 starts to a 5.26 ERA since then.

Like Chris Tillman who the Yanks saw yesterday, Matusz's marginal numbers this season with the Big League club doesn't mean much. He's only 22 years only and this two month stint in the Majors serves to get him some big league experience before he most likely begins next year down in AAA. Both Tillman and Matsuz are scheduled to be shut down for the season after one or two more starts.

With 19 games left in the season, the Yanks magic number is down to 14 while the O's have already been eliminated from Wild Card contention. Hopefully the Yanks can chip away at the latter figure while the O's continue to slide on down.

Hey nineteen,
No we got nothing in common,
No we cant talk at all,
Please take me along,
When you slide on down.

Game 142: Who'll Stop The Rain

[Update: The game is scheduled to start at 8:20]

As the Yankees return from a rare day off in the middle of a homestand, they start their final series against the Orioles this season. It's the first team in the division they will complete the requisite 18 games against which is appropriate since they opened the season at Camden Yards.

Despite dropping the first two against the O's, the Yanks have roundly dominated the season series, going 11-1 since. The last time the O's took a game from them was on May 9th, back when the Yankees were 14-16, A-Rod had just made his triumphant return, and Phil Hughes was still in the starting rotation. Since then, the Yanks have been on the good side of 3 three-game sweeps in a row and have won 10 straight dating back to the series before.

Andy Pettitte allowed four runs in six innings against the Blue Jays his last time out but didn't derail his streak of 4 consecutive wins. The Yankees have won in each of Pettitte's last 7 outings dating back to the beginning of August. Since the All-Star break, he has an ERA of 2.88, a record of 5-1 (Yanks are 8-2 when he's pitched), and has held opposing batters to an anemic line of .208/.267/.305. To give some perspective, that .573 OPS is notably lower than Zack Greinke's .612 over that same period.

Taking on Pettitte will be the ninth starting pitcher the O's have thrown at the Yankees this year, Chris Tillman. A part of the package sent from Seattle in return for Erik Bedard (which apparently is the gift that keeps on giving), Tillman is only 21 years old and was called up from AAA at the end of July. He threw 96 2/3 IP for the Norfolk Tides of the Eastern League this year, posting a 2.70 ERA and striking out 99 while walking only 26. Since he's been up in the Majors, Tillman as made 8 starts to a decent 4.66 ERA but has only struck out 17 while issuing 13 free passes in 35 1/3 IP leading to an ugly FIP of 6.23.

Johnny Damon is scheduled to take a breather tonight with Melky Cabrera taking his place in right field and Brett Gardner manning center. However, if someone doesn't stop the rain that's currently blanketing the NYC area, everyone might be getting the night off.

Long as I remember,
The rain been coming down,
Clouds of mystery falling,
Confusion on the ground.

Good men through the ages,
Trying to find a sun,
And I wonder, still I wonder,
Who'll stop the rain.