AL East Q&A: Daniel Moroz Talks O's

Next up in our AL East Q&A series, we are pleased to welcome one of the best Orioles bloggers on any of the intertubes.

Daniel Moroz is the proprietor of Camden Crazies and a contributor to the excellent Beyond the Box Score. For a sampling of his sabermetric chops, take a look at the five part series (1, 2, 3, 4, 5) that he did exploring Nick Markakis' drop in walks last year. Daniel is also the man behind the sensational Matt Wieters Facts. Please give him your undivided attention.

Fack Youk: Is it true that saying Matt Wieters is perfect would underestimate his abilities?

Daniel Moroz: One of the more amusing parts of the Matt Wieters Facts phenomena has been that my analysis of his actual performance hasn't been all that complementary. He did well – for a catcher - last year, but I don't think he's going to be a dominant force quite yet. I was expecting him to walk a little more than he did in 2009, though (not that it means much) he has been doing that this Spring. An above average bat in 2010 may not make Wieters an MVP candidate, but it should make him one of the better catchers in baseball already - with plenty of room for more development in the coming years.

FY: Aside from Wieters, what young position player on the O's do you have the most hope for going forward? Is it Adam Jones? Nick Markakis? Nolan Reimold?

DM: I have the most hope for Markakis, because we've seen him play at an elite level before with his .306/.406/.491 line from 2008. If he can return to that echelon - largely by getting his walk rate back up - then that would really help the offense. I don't know that Adam Jones can reach those levels with the bat because of his less than stellar plate discipline, but a .300/.375/.500 peak with plus defense in center-field would also be very valuable. Reimold I'm not quite as high on - though I was one of his biggest fans as he was coming up through the minors - as I think he's more of a role player (above average bat, but average to below defense in an outfield corner - average player overall) in the Luke Scott mold than a star. Honestly, I might have more hopes for Felix Pie, who is already a very good defensive outfielder and who could become an above average player if he improves at the plate.

FY: With Brad Bergesen, Chris Tillman, Brian Matsuz, Jake Arrieta and Brandon Erbe the Orioles seem to have a fine crop of young pitchers either already in the MLB or reasonably close to it. Do you think Bergesen can duplicate the success that he had in '09? Will Tillman and Matsuz be breaking camp with the club? Will Arrieta and Erbe contribute this season?

DM: I think Bergesen can largely duplicate his success - getting groundballs and limiting free passes - but I doubt he posts another ERA that low (3.43). He's more of a mid-rotation starter to me, which is less glamorous but certainly still valuable. Matusz will definitely break camp with the club, and might already be the team's best starter (and if not now, then by the end of the year). Tillman will start out the season in the minors - he still needs to work on a few things (more K’s, fewer BB and HR) - with David Hernandez getting the 5th starter spot, but he'll be up before too long and should get plenty of innings in the majors. Arrieta and Erbe might see a cup of coffee at the end of the year, but I don't expect them to really contribute unless there is a big wave of injuries to the first 7-8 guys on the depth chart.

FY: With all this young talent, when should we Yankee fans start to worry about the O's becoming a legitimate threat in the division?

DM: Not this season - or maybe even next - but by 2012 I do expect the O's to be contending with the Yankees (and Red Sox and Rays, and maybe Blue Jays, depending on how quickly they can turn things around). If the Yankees get old quickly and the free agent well starts to run a little dry, then Baltimore might be in a pretty good position to capitalize on it. It's a very tough division though.

FY: What are your feelings on the return of Miguel Tejada? What have you heard about his defensive transition to third base? Does he deserve to be hitting cleanup? What are the chances Josh Bell sees some playing time at the hot corner this year?

DM: I like Tejada, so it's nice to see him back. The contract wasn't bad, and the only reason I didn't think the deal made sense was because it pushed Garrett Atkins to first-base (where he's especially overpaid). He's made 5 errors at third this Spring, but I think he'll adjust relatively well to the position and be average to only a little below. He shouldn't be batting clean-up, since he's maybe the team's 7th best hitter at this point and so should be further down in the line-up. Bell - like Arrieta and Erbe - will probably make an appearance later in the year, but everything I've heard leads me to believe that Miggy is the team's third-baseman for 2010.

FY: And lastly, can you list off the order you think the AL East will finish in this season?

DM: Yankees, Red Sox (Wild Card), Rays ... gap... Orioles, Blue Jays. The top three should be pretty close though.

FY: Daniel, thanks for your time.

What Went Wrong With Wang

As a fan of the Yankees in general and of Chien-Ming Wang in particular, it was extremely difficult to watch the demise of the former staff ace play out over the course of the past two years.

Wang started out 2008 strong, winning 6 of his first seven starts. Then he hit a rough patch, working up an ERA of 6.45 over his next six outings before briefly getting back on track just as the second round of interleague play was beginning. Of course, he injured the arch of his foot running the bases after 5 innings of shutout ball in Houston and it was all downhill from there.

When he came back in 2009, he had one of the worst three game stretches possible to begin the season. In just six innings, he gave up 23 runs. Wang had transformed from a dominant sinkerballer to a batting practice pitcher.

What caused this seismic shift?

According to pitch f/x data from FanGraphs (which only dates back to 2007), 73% of the pitches Wang threw in '07 and '08 were sinkers. However, in 2009, only were 57% sinkers. Is that possible? I know it's a small sample size, but it's hard to believe that he would have changed his repertoire that dramatically.

From my read of the data, it seems as though Wang was throwing the same amount of sinkers, but some were so flat that they were being miscategorized as two-seam fastballs. Two-seamers move similarly to sinkers but less downward and more to the right. Lets take a look at the velocity and movement of Wang's versions of those pitches:

In 2009, it appears that Wang's sinker was actually straighter and sunk more than in previous years. However, that can be explained.

Wang has always thrown sinkers that were miscategorized as two seamers, but there was a sharp increase in 2009:

So the movement on his sinker looked better in pitch f/x because all of the ones that were so flat that they were identified as two-seamers were taken out of the sample. So it's not that Wang's pitches sank less, instead they started running more side to side. So much so that they basically became a different pitch.

As Pat Androila pointed out at the the Hardball Times yesterday, Wang's numbers against lefties have always been bad, but were especially terrible in 2009. Why? I have a bit of a theory about this. I think Wang's increased side to side movement in '09 caused him to have difficulty throwing strikes (highest BB/9 of his career at 4.1), in addition to making the pitches that did travel through the zone much more hittable, particularly to lefties (gave up a 1.146 OPS against southpaws).

In general baseball terms, some pitches travel through the strikezone on planes that are more difficult to square up with than others. My contention is that those elite pitches find slots - angles of movement - that run counter to the barrel of the bat and minimize the time that they can be struck squarely. From the batter's perspective, this is similar to a golf swing. The longer your clubface is square through the impact zone, the better chance you have of hitting the ball straight. If your club is turning on the way through, you need to get very lucky to hit it flush.

Randy Johnson's slider was death to lefties because it crossed the zone from an extremely wide angle, diving down and to the right. Mariano Rivera's cutter is even tougher than lefties than it is on righties because it veers in on their hands and away from the thick part of the bat.

Though it seems odd to say now, Wang's sinker was one of those elite pitches over the course of almost three full seasons. Batters knew it was coming 3/4 of the time and still had trouble making solid contact. I remember Brandon Inge saying during an interview played on a broadcast that he used to literally try to swing under the pitch and would still sometimes drive it into the ground.

Take a look at these two graphics I made from Wang's at bat against Nick Markakis in the first inning of the game on April 8th, 2009. But keep in mind that this is far from exact; I'm trying to provide a 2-D visualization for a 3-D problem. The yellow lines represent some potential slots that Markakis' bat could fall into while the red represents the trajectory of Wang's pitch. The graphic on the left is meant to resemble a sinker and the one on the right shows what pitch f/x would classify as a two-seamer.

An effective sinker by Wang is running nearly perpendicular to the bat once it reaches the strikezone, while his drifting 2-seamer is much closer to parallel. They often say baseball is a game of inches and the break on Chien-Ming Wang's sinker is a perfect example of that.

Of course, this doesn't get to the part of the scenario that any team looking to sign Wang actually cares about: Will he ever be able to command the sinker that made him so effective before his injury in Houston again?

When Wang is finally able to pitch this year, it will have been almost two years since he could throw enough effective sinkers to be a solid Major League starter. It seems as though the Yankees messed up his rehabilitation by telling him not to exercise his legs when recovering from his lisfranc sprain, which probably contributed to his inability to find his old sinker. It took an intricate combination of forces and no small amount of touch to toss that pitch and his failed rehab might have thrown him irreparably off course. To continue with the nautical analogy, he might have already run ashore and there's no telling if he will be able to rebuild his ship.

The troubling part is that the line between being awesome and awful for Wang is so thin. It only takes one bad pitch to ruin an at bat, and just a 17% drop in good sinkers made him one of the worst pitchers in the history of the game over his first three starts. He's never thrown good enough offspeed pitches to get guys out so any team who gives him a deal is betting on whether or not he recoups the magic sinker. Personally, I hope Wang finds it. Objectively, I don't think he will.

20 Over

[Photos via ESPN/AP]

For the second game in a row, the score ended up 6-4 in favor of the home team. For the second time this season, the Yankees have completed a sweep of the Orioles at the New Yankee Stadium. They've held their opponents to 2 1/3 runs per game on this homestand and have taken each of the six games by the slim margins of either one or two runs. They're now 1.5 games up on the Sox and 20 games over .500 for the first time since 2007.

The Yanks struck early, jumping out to a comfortable lead in the first inning and never looking back. They scored four times against Jason Berken before it was over, with A-Rod and Cano driving in a run each and Swish adding a two out single for two RBIs of his own. Jorge Posada chipped in a solo home run in the third inning to make the score 5-0, where it would stay until the 7th inning. He added an RBI double in the 8th.

A.J. Burnett kept the Orioles at bay by working around two baserunners in each of the first four innings but then settled down in the 5th and 6th allowing only a walk to the illustrious Greg Zaun in between those 6 outs. The O's did managed to scratch across two runs in the 7th. The first one came on a sac fly and the second crossed the plate when Burnett struck out Aubrey Huff on a nasty curveball for what should have been the third out of the inning. Instead, the ball bounced off the plate and rolled far enough away from Posada for Adam Jones to sprint in from 3rd.

Over his 7 innings, Burnett allowed 6 hits, struck out 6 and walked 3. Although his pitch count started to climb in the early innings, he settled down a bit and ended with 104 (68 for strikes). He was seemingly in control at all times, even though he was constantly pitching from the stretch. A.J. was both helped and hurt by Nick Swisher, who made an E6 to start the 3rd but redeemed himself with a running (and run-saving) catch to end the inning and another against the wall in the 5th.

Phil Hughes pitched a scoreless frame in the 8th, and with a four run lead going into the 9th, Joe Girardi called on Brian Bruney to finish the game. He struck out the first two batters he faced before being stopped in his tracks by back to back solo homers from Adam Jones and Nick Markakis. Mo came on to clean up the spill and stuck out Aubrey Huff looking to end the game and picked up a cheapie save. It was win #9 on the season for Burnett and the fourth straight decision that's gone in his favor.

After the game, Bruney flippantly answered reporters' questions saying, among other things “I just wanted to get Mo a save, that’s what a set-up man does". He also said that he has his best stuff of the year and felt like he did back in April. It's seemingly becoming a trend for Yankees' pitchers to react delusionally to their bad outings and refuse to admit their mistakes. Joe Girardi didn't seem to have a problem with it, but giving up back to back jacks in 2/3 of an inning of work isn't "pitching well" no matter how you cut the cake.

The Sox are on ESPN tonight at 8:00 as they look to avoid a sweep at the hands of the Rangers and keep their deficit in the division at 1 and lead in the Wild Card at 3.5. In case you didn't hear, they made some exciting moves today, ones that will surely have a major impact on the pennant race (not really).

How do you like the view from the top?

Three Two To Ones

For the third day in a row the Yankees won a game by the score of 2-1. They are the first games of the year the Yanks have won while scoring two or fewer runs and they'd only notched two victories while scoring 3 runs or fewer before the All-Star Break. The odds of matching up a great pitching performance like the one put together by Andy Pettitte and the bullpen tonight to cover a weak offensive output are slim, and during the first few innings, it looked like the match-up was headed in an entirely different direction.

The first batter of the game, Brian Roberts, lofted a deep fly ball into the left field corner which barely stayed in the park. Up next, Nick Markakis blasted one into the home bullpen to make the score 1-0. The Yankees loaded the bases with two outs in the bottom of the first, but David Hernandez won a 9 pitch battle with Robinson Cano to end the inning. They got on the board soon thereafter, though, with a solo shot by Eric Hinkse in the bottom of the second.

Despite the exciting start, the offenses stalled out.

Both Pettitte and Hernandez found their stride and cruised through the middle innings. Allowing three hits and three walks, Herdandez went six frames but threw 103 pitches, due in part to the 35 it took him to get out of the first. Pettitte gave up 6 hits, but compensated with two double plays and a season-high 8 strikeouts. He left mess in the 8th inning for Phil Coke to clean up, though.

With one out and men on second and third, Nick Markakis lined Coke's first pitch to Mark Teixeira, who fired an off balance throw to Jose Molina with Caesar Izturus heading towards the plate. Molina grabbed the throw across this body, and swept a tag towards the plate, just barely in front of the runner. The ball was nearly falling out of his glove, but he trapped it against the ground as Izturus' foot nearly knocked it out. Brain Roberts advanced to third on the play.

Facing Adam Jones, Coke uncorked a wild pitch past Molina, but the veteran catcher quickly tracked and down and fired to Coke covering the plate, who tagged Roberts on an extra wide slide towards home. Two pitches, two fantastic defensive plays, and the lead was preserved.

With it apparent that both Mariano Rivera and Phil Hughes were likely unavailable, it wasn't clear who Girardi would call on to get big outs in the game. After Coke may or may not have hit Adam Jones with a pitch and got Aubrey Huff to fly out to center, our boy Alf was summoned from the 'pen to keep the game tied. Aceves got Melvin Mora to fly out to center and intentionally walked Luke Scott, before rookie Nolan Riemold flied to left for the third out.

A-Rod had the first chance to end the game in the bottom of the 9th, but he hit a flare right at Brain Roberts who had him played nearly straight away, behind second base. Hideki Matsui was next up. He took the first two pitches for balls, fouled the next three off and took the sixth one to the right field bleachers for a walk off HR.

It was the Yankees' 9th such victory this year (and 8th subsequent pie in the face - see comments) and it moved them to 15-11 in one run games. It's thanks to games like this that the Yanks continue to outperform their run differential and are now tied for first place in the AL East for the fifth separate time this season despite having gone just 16-17 within the division.

[Photos via ESPN/AP]