Sailing On

This won't come as any surprise to those of you who have been trying to keep up with this site despite the lack of content lately, but Matt and I wanted to officially say that we are taking a step back from the day-to-day grind of blogging.

This summer has been a busy one for both of us and despite our best efforts, we just haven't been able to post a steady volume of content. The best blogs are the ones that are updated frequently enough to make you want to check them at least once a day. I'd like to think that we achieved that status for a pretty long stretch here (over a year and a half), however, it requires a massive amount of time and dedication maintain that pace, two things that are in very short supply right now.

As Dennis "Cutty" Wise said in one of the more poorly acted scenes in the greatest television show of all time, "the game ain't in me no more".

I'm hardly at my computer at all during the day, which has taken me out of the rhythm of writing and Matt's schedule has been especially frenetic as of late. Maintaining a blog shouldn't feel like an obligation, and when you are doing it as a hobby, don't have a huge readership and the only chances you have to write most days come before and after work, eventually the inspiration to read and write voraciously enough to blog competently is going to dry up. It was only a matter of time.

It's not as if we are going to shut down the site completely, however. We just aren't going to attempt to keep up with previews for every game and there likely won't be any recaps either. Instead, we'll probably end up writing more analytical or historical pieces, jumping into the conversation every so often instead of trying to tread water and keep up with torrent of news and issues going on with the Yanks on a daily basis. If we find the time to post, this is where it will go, but whether that will be every couple of days, once a week or even less will vary.

As I have many times in the past, I would suggest starting up an account on Google Reader and subscribing to our feed. That way, you'll be automatically notified when we post something as opposed to having to come to the site and check, which could get pretty annoying as the flow of posts slows to a trickle. If you want to keep up with us on a more frequent basis, you can follow our shared items on GReader (Jay, Matt) as well. We got a pretty fantastic crew of ShareBros including the dudes from River Ave. Blues, Moshe from TYU, Jonah Keri, Tommy Bennett, Rob Iracane from Walk Off Walk, Lar from Wezen-Ball, Andy Hutchins from The Sporting Blog and many others.

See you around, Fackers.

Sailin' on, sailin' on,
I can hear sweet voices singin, hear sweet music playin',
Sailin' on, sailin' on,
Oh, I wish you were here with me when I'm sailin on.

Game 77: The Wreck Of The Edmund Fitzgerald

Before the season started, some (including myself) thought that the Mariners were the favorites to win the AL West. They added Cliff Lee, Chone Figgins and Milton Bradley to a team that finished a solid 85-77 last year. After parting ways with Figgins, John Lackey and Vlad Guerrero, it appeared the Angels' reign atop the division was in jeopardy.

Instead of being somewhat of a surprise team in 2010, the Mariners are surprisingly bad. To start, they were outscored on the year and had an expected record of 75-87, so the foundation they were building upon was somewhat shaky. Many traditional baseball thinkers doubted that their mostly-pitching-and-defense mode of roster construction could work, and so far this season - although you couldn't tell by last night's game - it certainly hasn't. They are a dismal 14 behind the Rangers just 76 games into the season, in last place in the West by four in the loss column. Three weeks ago Dave Cameron at U.S.S. Mariner summed up their season to date thusly.

The biggest culprit is their offense. The M's are in last place in runs scored, home runs, doubles and slugging percentage and second to last in batting average and on base percentage. Only two of the players in their starting lineup (Ichiro and Franklin Gutierrez) have an OPS+ better than league average. First base and designated hitter, the two positions that should be the easiest to find offensive production at, have been especially dismal, the production while occupying those roles checking in at a 42 & 43 OPS+, respectively. The reacquisition of Russell Branyan should be a boost to the former and parting ways with Ken Griffey has already helped with the latter, but it's probably too little, too late.

There's about 60% of the season left and their pitching staff has performed admirably, but it's hard to imagine that Seattle can leapfrog Oakland, Texas and Anaheim and win the division, and that's what they'll need to do because the Wild Card is almost certainly coming from the East. The Mariner's season may be sunk, but they still provide an extremely tough matchup for the Yankees once again tonight as King Felix takes on Javier Vazquez.

They might have split up or they might have capsized
They may have broke deep and took water
And all that remains is the faces and the names
Of the wives and the sons and the daughters.

-Lineups-

Yankees:
Brett Gardner's wrist keeps him on the bench for the second straight night. In his stead, Colin Curtis gets his first Major League start. Jorge Posada is the DH for the second consecutive night.

Derek Jeter SS
Nick Swisher RF
Mark Teixeira 1B
Alex Rodriguez 3B
Robinson Cano 2B
Jorge Posada DH
Curtis Granderson CF
Colin Curtis LF
Francisco Cervelli C

Javier Vazquez RHP

Mariners:

Ichiro RF
Chone Figgins 2B
Russell Braynan 1B
Milton Bradley DH
Jose Lopez 3B
Franklin Gutierrez CF
Jack Wilson SS
Michael Saunders LF

Felix Hernandez RHP

What Went Wrong With Wang

As a fan of the Yankees in general and of Chien-Ming Wang in particular, it was extremely difficult to watch the demise of the former staff ace play out over the course of the past two years.

Wang started out 2008 strong, winning 6 of his first seven starts. Then he hit a rough patch, working up an ERA of 6.45 over his next six outings before briefly getting back on track just as the second round of interleague play was beginning. Of course, he injured the arch of his foot running the bases after 5 innings of shutout ball in Houston and it was all downhill from there.

When he came back in 2009, he had one of the worst three game stretches possible to begin the season. In just six innings, he gave up 23 runs. Wang had transformed from a dominant sinkerballer to a batting practice pitcher.

What caused this seismic shift?

According to pitch f/x data from FanGraphs (which only dates back to 2007), 73% of the pitches Wang threw in '07 and '08 were sinkers. However, in 2009, only were 57% sinkers. Is that possible? I know it's a small sample size, but it's hard to believe that he would have changed his repertoire that dramatically.

From my read of the data, it seems as though Wang was throwing the same amount of sinkers, but some were so flat that they were being miscategorized as two-seam fastballs. Two-seamers move similarly to sinkers but less downward and more to the right. Lets take a look at the velocity and movement of Wang's versions of those pitches:

In 2009, it appears that Wang's sinker was actually straighter and sunk more than in previous years. However, that can be explained.

Wang has always thrown sinkers that were miscategorized as two seamers, but there was a sharp increase in 2009:

So the movement on his sinker looked better in pitch f/x because all of the ones that were so flat that they were identified as two-seamers were taken out of the sample. So it's not that Wang's pitches sank less, instead they started running more side to side. So much so that they basically became a different pitch.

As Pat Androila pointed out at the the Hardball Times yesterday, Wang's numbers against lefties have always been bad, but were especially terrible in 2009. Why? I have a bit of a theory about this. I think Wang's increased side to side movement in '09 caused him to have difficulty throwing strikes (highest BB/9 of his career at 4.1), in addition to making the pitches that did travel through the zone much more hittable, particularly to lefties (gave up a 1.146 OPS against southpaws).

In general baseball terms, some pitches travel through the strikezone on planes that are more difficult to square up with than others. My contention is that those elite pitches find slots - angles of movement - that run counter to the barrel of the bat and minimize the time that they can be struck squarely. From the batter's perspective, this is similar to a golf swing. The longer your clubface is square through the impact zone, the better chance you have of hitting the ball straight. If your club is turning on the way through, you need to get very lucky to hit it flush.

Randy Johnson's slider was death to lefties because it crossed the zone from an extremely wide angle, diving down and to the right. Mariano Rivera's cutter is even tougher than lefties than it is on righties because it veers in on their hands and away from the thick part of the bat.

Though it seems odd to say now, Wang's sinker was one of those elite pitches over the course of almost three full seasons. Batters knew it was coming 3/4 of the time and still had trouble making solid contact. I remember Brandon Inge saying during an interview played on a broadcast that he used to literally try to swing under the pitch and would still sometimes drive it into the ground.

Take a look at these two graphics I made from Wang's at bat against Nick Markakis in the first inning of the game on April 8th, 2009. But keep in mind that this is far from exact; I'm trying to provide a 2-D visualization for a 3-D problem. The yellow lines represent some potential slots that Markakis' bat could fall into while the red represents the trajectory of Wang's pitch. The graphic on the left is meant to resemble a sinker and the one on the right shows what pitch f/x would classify as a two-seamer.

An effective sinker by Wang is running nearly perpendicular to the bat once it reaches the strikezone, while his drifting 2-seamer is much closer to parallel. They often say baseball is a game of inches and the break on Chien-Ming Wang's sinker is a perfect example of that.

Of course, this doesn't get to the part of the scenario that any team looking to sign Wang actually cares about: Will he ever be able to command the sinker that made him so effective before his injury in Houston again?

When Wang is finally able to pitch this year, it will have been almost two years since he could throw enough effective sinkers to be a solid Major League starter. It seems as though the Yankees messed up his rehabilitation by telling him not to exercise his legs when recovering from his lisfranc sprain, which probably contributed to his inability to find his old sinker. It took an intricate combination of forces and no small amount of touch to toss that pitch and his failed rehab might have thrown him irreparably off course. To continue with the nautical analogy, he might have already run ashore and there's no telling if he will be able to rebuild his ship.

The troubling part is that the line between being awesome and awful for Wang is so thin. It only takes one bad pitch to ruin an at bat, and just a 17% drop in good sinkers made him one of the worst pitchers in the history of the game over his first three starts. He's never thrown good enough offspeed pitches to get guys out so any team who gives him a deal is betting on whether or not he recoups the magic sinker. Personally, I hope Wang finds it. Objectively, I don't think he will.