TBS PitchTRAX: Informative or Infuriating?

Those of you watching the game in HD last night were exposed to a new feature on the TBS broadcast. On the right hand side of the screen, for the view in from center field only, the displayed a sort of pitch tracker like you see on ESPN and FOX, except it was on the screen at all times.

As the pitches come in, they show up as little numbered balls corresponding to the location they are thrown. It's the type of thing I hate in principle - a flashy graphic imposed on us by a network that doesn't really know much about broadcasting baseball - but I don't totally despise it (yet, anyway). Anything that makes you pay less attention to Chip Caray, you know?

The one thing I wonder about is whether this is computerized like MLB Gameday and PitchFX or they have someone on the production team manually assigning locations. If it's the latter, then we might as well be judging balls and strikes from the couch, but if it's the former, I can see some utility in it. Regardless of the accuracy, it does show you the approach being taken by the pitcher and displays it a lot more clearly that your mental record could.

Aesthetically, it looks kind of terrible, even though the portion of the screen that it's blocking is never really going to show anything, save for a flash of a grounder to third. It's certainly no yellow first down line in terms of value add, but it does give you some interesting context. For instance, when Phil Hughes faced Orlando Cabrera, you could see that every pitch he threw was either high or outside, nothing close to down or in:

It tells you that A) Cabrera is a low/inside, pull type of hitter and B) Hughes was consistently hitting his spots. I watch the games pretty closely but I've gotta admit that some of the pitch sequencing gets lost to me.

I wouldn't want to see this on every YES game, but for the postseason, I guess I don't really mind it. Ideally you'd like to be able to turn it and off via remote, but we're obviously a little ways down the road from that kind of functionality. I'm trying to look at the bright side here, but I'm sure there are a bunch of you who are going to vehemently hate it. I'd be willing the bet the umps do.

Haters? Appreciators? Agnostics?

Getting A Couple Monkeys Off Of A Couple Backs

Good morning, Fackers. Last night's was obviously a pretty big win, but mostly because a loss would have been so devastating. Being that it's a short series and Games 3 & 4 are going to be played in the Metrodome, where the Twins were 49-33 this year, it's good to get the first one under our collective belt. The old dome in Minneapolis is going to be supercharged for the inevitable Game 3 and possible 4 given that they could be the last baseball contests ever staged there and they'll be packing them to the rafters and handing out hankies.

Last night was also huge for both CC and A-Rod. I was a little concerned after the egg he laid in Tampa Bay looking for win number 20, but Sabathia stepped up last night, getting some big outs, striking out 8 and allowing hardly any solid contact. He needed 113 pitches to get through 6 2/3, but he kept the Twins offense, which been so hot of late, at bay under very tough conditions.

A-Rod's not one but two hits with runners in scoring position broke a massive postseason drought spanning all the way back to Game 5 of the 2004 ALCS. He was hitting .143/.314/.214 with 1 RBI and two extra base hits in 70 plate appearances. In that span left 38 runners on base and was 0 for 27 with RISP. We don't give a whole lot of credence to the concept of clutch hitting around here, but it's undeniable that A-Rod wasn't just falling victim to bad luck.

If those 70 at bats had occurred in a row, there's no chance that his numbers would have been that bad. He would have kept swinging and worked out of it. But they spanned years and happened in small doses since the Yanks hadn't played in more than 5 postseason games in any season since then. The pressure began to build and he began to press, striking out in almost 1/3 of his at bats.

While it makes for a convenient tabloid story to talk about how Alex has some sort of a new-found focus since he admitted to using steroids, or is more comfortable in the clubhouse, the reality is that he's just too good of a hitter to slug .214 for very long, under any circumstances.

Arguably, or at least potentially the Yankees two most important players for this postseason, Sabathia and Rodriguez got off on the right foot last night. They've already cut themselves some slack, even if it's just in their own minds, so when A-Rod digs in on Friday night, the urgency of having to drive in a run will be gone. When Sabathia takes the hill next, whenever that might be, he won't have to prove that he can have a good outing in the postseason, because he already got that out of the way.

We can downplay the impact of pressure, but I think we can agree that those who perform well regardless of the level of pressure are the ones that don't change their approach. The feeling of urgency is unfamiliar to players who are constantly looking out for the long haul - that 162 game mega-marathon. The postseason might be a sprint, but the key is to keep running the same speed. Derek Jeter's OPS is almost exactly the same in the regular season as it is in the postseason (.847 & .850), yet he's perceived as a clutch god. The reality is that he's the same great player that he always is.

That's all the Yankees need right now. Not everyone can be Mariano Rivera and actually elevate their performance on the biggest stage. If Sabathia and A-Rod can just be their usual excellent selves, we'll be well on our way to a satisfying October.

Yanks Too Tough For Twins

We all knew the storyline coming into Game 1 of the 2009 ALDS. The Twins were too tired and had to starting a rookie pitcher. The Yanks were well-rested, starting their ace and should have won easily. But the Twins didn't look like a tired team last night and Brian Deunsing pitched pretty well, they just looked over-matched. Tired is going to dissipate over the course of the series, the disparity in talent won't.

CC Sabathia was put to the test in the first inning after allowing a lead off double to Denard Span. He struck out Orlando Cabrera but the very next pitch to Joe Mauer crossed up Jorge Posada, putting Span on third with one out anyway. The Yanks played the infield back, prepared to give up the run, but CC beared down and struck Mauer swinging on a sweeping slider. It was a big moment for the big man, who got out of the inning with a pop up by Michael Cuddyer.

The Twins did get to Sabathia in the third, even though he erased a lead off single by Nick Punto with a double play ball from Denard Span. Cabrera singled and this time Joe Mauer won the battle, lacing a double to center. Cuddyer then blooped a single to first, driving in the run and moving Mauer to third. There was yet another miscommunication between the Yanks battery, and although it was Sabathia's fault, the ball hit Jorge's glove and he took an unusually long time to track it down, allowing Mauer to score although he hesitated badly before coming home.

As has been a trademark of the Yankees throughout the season, they wasted no time in answering the bell. After the first 8 hitters mustered only two hits and no runs, the Yanks broke through against Deunsing. Melky Cabrera hit a one out chopper up the middle and advanced on a wild pitch. Derek Jeter followed that with a rare homer to left field - only his second in the New Stadium - tying the game at 2 and awakening the crowd.

Sabathia settled down after the third, getting the Twins in order in the top of the fourth. Jorge Posada led off the bottom of the inning with a single then was forced out by Robinson Cano. This turned out well, because the next batter up was Nick Swisher, who ripped a double down the left field line, which rolled around long enough for Cano to score from first (with the help of weak throws by Delmon Young and Cabrera), giving the Yanks their first lead of the game.

The Yanks were back at it in the top of the fifth. Jeter led off with a walk, and was moved over on a grounder by Johnny Damon. Mark Teixeira - who had a rough night - popped out, bringing up A-Rod with a runner in scoring position and two outs. Alex responded by poking one into the gap and expanding the lead to 4-2. That ended Deunsing's night as Ron Gardenhire replaced the lefty with another lefty (Francisco Liriano) to face a lefty who mashes lefties. Hideki Matsui did not disappoint, lofting one that seemed to carry forever to straightaway center, which was the only ball noticeably affected by the wind all night.

Sabathia sat the Twins down in order in the sixth but ran into some trouble and was pulled with two outs in the seventh in favor of Phil Hughes, leaving runners on second and third. Hughes stepped up and struck out Orlando Cabrera leaving CC's solid outing intact.

The final tally was 6 2/3 IP, 2 R (1 ER), 8 hits, 8 strikeouts and perhaps most significantly, no walks. Sabathia threw 71 of his 113 pitches for strikes (62%) and seemed to be ahead of hitters all night. The doubles to Span and Mauer were the only extra base hits.

A-Rod added another knock with two outs and runners in scoring position in the seventh, rounding out his night at 2-4 with 2 RBIs and a run scored. He was second only to Derek Jeter who went 2-2 with two walks, 2 RBI and 3 runs scored.

Joe Girardi used three pitchers in the 8th, Phil Hughes for two batters and then Phil Coke and Joba Chamberlain for a combined three pitches. He then dropped the hammer by calling on Mariano Rivera to nail down the 5 run lead in the ninth. Mo did his thing, but was actually the only Yankee pitcher to issue a walk all night.

The Yanks got all they could have asked for: a strong start by CC, a perfect night from Jeter, a long-awaited solid effort by A-Rod, scoreless work from the bullpen and most importantly, the win. It was a bad night for those waiting for Alex and Carsten Charles to choke and the Yanks to boot this one.

It all went according to plan, so it's easy to shove aside the fact that the Twins jumped out early, but it was all Bombers from there on out. Oddly, in 4 out of 5 past ALDSes, including two against the Twins, the series winner has lost Game 1. I think the Yanks will take the "W", though. Feels pretty good, doesn't it?

[Photos]

ALDS Game 1: Guess I Planted

When the Twins beat the Tigers last night, it ensured that there would be at least one team in the AL side of the playoff bracket that the Yankees had beaten in the postseason more recently than they had lost to.

Coincidentally, that was also the last postseason series that A-Rod had played in before being labeled a hopeless choke artist. He hit .421/.476/.737 in those four games back in 2004 and drove in three runs including one on a game-tying ground rule double in the 12th inning of Game 2 off of Joe Nathan. That happened at the Old Stadium but Alex will be looking to start anew across the street this evening.

At about 6:07, CC Sabathia will stride towards the mound and deliver the first postseason pitch ever thrown at the New Yankee Stadium. He will be trying to conquer some playoff demons of his own. The last non-regular season quality start he had in October was back in 2001.

In his four postseason outings since then, he's given up 20 ER and 27 hits in 19 IP while walking 17 and striking out 19. The lack of command is the most alarming trend for a pitcher who walks about 3 men per 9 IP in the regular season. Right or wrong, his season will be judged in large part by what he does from here on out. But both he and A-Rod can get that monkey off their backs with a good performance; the sooner the better.

The Twins send Brian Duensing to the mound tonight. You don't often see a team have to send an emergency starter to the mound in Game 1 of a playoff series, but that's exactly what's going down tonight. Deunsing is from Omaha and was actually a teammate of Joba Chamberlain's at the University of Nebraska.

He was drafted in the 3rd round of the 2005 draft (84th overall) and unlike his former teammate gradually worked his way up through the minor leagues, finally making his debut with the Twins this year. In addition to 15 relief appearances, Deunsing made 9 starts for the Twins, going 5-1 with a 2.73 ERA in 52.2 IP. Eight of those 9 starts came after August 22nd, so the sample might be small, but it's pretty recent. He's not a big "three true outcomes" kind of a guy since he doesn't walk or strikeout many and doesn't yield many home runs.

Amazingly, Duensing has never even been to New York City before. Welcome to the Big Apple, kid. Now here's the ball. You've only gotta hurl it against the best home run hitting team the Yankees have ever assembled with major gusts of wind whipping out towards the outfield in an already tight ballpark against a former Cy Young winner with an exhausted defense behind you.

Even given Sabathia's previous postseason struggles, and Deunsing's success in the starting role, it seems like deck is stacked towards the Yankees in a big way. If must-win Game 1, can actually exist, I think we are looking at it.

Coming off the 12th inning win last night, the Twins aren't going to be well rested. They're starting a rookie pitcher in what will be his 10th major league start. They crushed the Twins in the season series 7-0, although that didn't work out do well against the Indians back in '07. By virtue of having the best record in the AL, they earned the right to take on the weakest team coming into the playoffs and start on their homefield. Now it's time to take advantage.

Let's go Yanks.

Hungry for the union,
And so we kept on,
Singing and working, fighting 'til we got it,
And this is the big union song I guess I hear.

Union song, union battled,
All added up, won us all what we got now,
Union song, union battled,
All added up, won us all what we got now.

ALDS Previews Galore

We'll be back shortly with our own unique brand of preview, but wanted to gather up some more in-depth looks ahead at the series first.

- River Ave. Blues goes position by position.

- Replacement Level Yankees Weblog uses wOBA, pERA & pFIP to make some projections looking just at the postseason rosters of both teams. They already looked at the Twins and today tackled the Yankees. Brilliant concept and great execution. Well done, fellas.

- Will from IIATMS looks at the Twins' Pitching vs. the Yankees' hitting.

- The Yankee Universe explores at the pitching match ups and examines the Twins' bullpen.

- The NYT Bats Blog calls it a "mismatch". I see no need to tempt fate like that.

- Aaron Gleeman goes in-depth at Circling the Bases.

- David Pinto does the same at Baseball Musings.

- The Sports Section at New York Magazine looks at each Yankee star along with Joe Girardi.

- And finally, here's some talk about the shadows that can play a part in late afternoon games, especially in the postseason. The sun won't be the element giving the teams the most problems tonight, though. That would be the wind.

You'd better read those because there's going to be a quiz on them later!

ALDS Roster Finalized

The ALDS roster has been released. There aren't any major surprises, but there are some decisions that I think might be less than optimal.

Here's how it breaks down:

Pitchers (11): Sabathia, Burnett, Pettitte, Rivera, Hughes, Aceves, Robertson, Coke, Marte, Chamberlain, Gaudin

Catchers (3): Posada, Molina, Cervelli

Infielders (5): Teixeira, Cano, Jeter, Rodriguez, Hairston

Outfielders (5): Damon, Cabrera, Swisher, Gardner, Hinske

DH (1): Matsui

The primary reason to take the "A" series for the ALDS was that the extra off day permits the team to use just three starters. The secondary benefit was that the schedule gave the Yankees the option to carry just 10 pitchers, allowing an extra position player on the bench. While it's hard to argue against the presence of any of the eleven pitchers on the roster, the Yankees have punted on the opportunity to bolster the bench.

The presence of Marte and Coke both is necessitated by the Twins' dangerous lefty combo of Joe Mauer and Jason Kubel. Having both Joba Chamberlain and Chad Gaudin is somewhat redundant, but in my opinion both are equally worthy of a roster spot. However, given the way the schedule shakes out, neither pitcher should be used too heavily unless there is an extremely long game. The off days should allow Mo, Hughes, Alf, DRob and the lefties to pitch the bulk of the relief innings.

The Yankee bench is further shortened by the decision to have Jose Molina catch A.J. Burnett in Game 2. This is the only conceivable reason to have Francisco Cervelli on the roster. I like Cervelli as much as the next Yankee fan, and I hope to see him as the back up catcher next year. But barring something disastrous, he shouldn't see the field in the ALDS.

I have mixed feelings about Molina catching Burnett. While it appears that Burnett works better with Molina, I'm not convinced that's the case nor am I convinced of the reliability of the small sample size of data that supports the decision. Either way, the lack of Posada's bat in the line up, and replacing it with Molina's, could negate any perceived or realized advantage on the other side of the ball.

Furthermore, I hope that Cervelli's presence isn't an indication the Posada will DH when Molina catches. Replacing Matsui with Posada is a wash at best, particularly with Matsui's success against southpaws. Confining Posada to DH duty means that Cervelli, who is an incremental offensive upgrade over Molina, would enter the line up when Molina is inevitably pinch hit for in the late innings. Otherwise, the Yankees will lose the DH if Posada moves from DH to behind the plate.

Cervelli's presence also means that Ramiro Pena and Freddy Guzman are off the roster. I certainly haven't been an advocate of having Guzman present for the express purpose of pinch running. However, his absence likely means that Melky Cabrera will be the centerfielder, with Gardner coming off the bench as a pinch runner. As Jay and I have covered several times over the course of the year, we feel that Gardner is the better choice for centerfield.

Pena on the other hand, offers about the same offensive value as Cervelli, with the added benefit of being more versatile defensively and a better pinch running option. While the Yankees shouldn't need one, let alone two utility infielders, having both Hairston and Pena on the roster would allow them to spell both Jeter and A-Rod should a game get out of hand.

In the end, this is all probably much ado about nothing. Given the talent level at the top of the Yankees roster, if the series comes down to the 24th or 25th man on the roster things are likely pretty well screwed anyway. However, as we discussed at over the course of this season, each roster spot is a resource that needs to be allocated in the best way possible. I'm not convinced that this particular group of 25 is the best use of the Yankees resources for the ALDS.

Chip Caray Is Unclutch

(Photoshop via Sussman, via BBTF)

Sadly, I didn't even hear Chip Caray severely botch the call of Ryan Rayburn's throw home, calling it a "line drive, base hit" when it clearly was caught on the fly, instead pointing out a smaller error he made in the bottom of the 9th. Luckily, pretty much everyone else watching the game did.

This should come as no surprise though, as Caray has previously shown that the more important the moment is, the more likely he is to completely fuck it up. He did it in the 2007 ALDS against Cleveland too:

Caray does not distinguish a go-ahead run from a winning run. In Cleveland on Friday, he said the Indians had the winning run on second base in the bottom of the eighth, and he put the Yankees in the same position in the top of the ninth. Wrong.

I think we know who the real postseason choke artist taking part in this ALDS is. And it's not A-Rod.

Why Is A.J. Burnett Starting Game 2?

This I don't get, so let's let the first guessing begin!

A.J. Burnett has pitched more recently than Andy Pettitte, so flipping the order means Pettitte will start on 7 days rest while Burnett will start on 4. The Twins two best hitters, Jason Kubel and Joe Mauer are left handed so throwing Pettitte might help keep them out of the short porch in right at the Stadium. Burnett will be caught by a dismal offensive catcher, replacing one of the better bats in the line up with someone who may or may not be replacement level.

The decision forces them to carry three catchers for a 5 game series instead of a pinch runner, who might be a waste of a roster spot, but could theoretically be used in every game. Burnett has pitched in a grand total of zero postseason games. The two guys who stand to be offended by this are dynasty cogs - Pettitte and Posada - in favor of a free agent acquisition and a back up catcher that's probably not going to be around next year.

So why would Joe Girardi choose A.J. Burnett to start in two games of this ALDS including the potential deciding Game 5? Even if Posada figures to catch that Game 5, negating one of the above variables, don't you trust Andy Pettitte to give you a representative effort more than Burnett? Not just because of the lack of postseason experience for Burnett, but the fact that Pettitte surrenders fewer homers and far fewer walks. Wouldn't you trust Andy even more if you were Joe Girardi and had caught him before?

Is Pettitte's shoulder hurting? That would make some sense, and I'd be happy that the Yankees didn't announce that publicly. Are we looking at home/road splits, though? Because those are skewed horribly by Burnett's bad outings at Fenway and have evened out since the All-Star Break. Is Girardi doing this based on Burnett's power "stuff"? Because their K/BB rates are pretty similar and the whole "not giving up walks" part of that equation is a lot more important than striking guys out.

Girardi wasn't around the Yankees back then, but he must have been aware of Joe Torre's decision to start John Flaherty to catch Randy Johnson in Game 3 of the 2005 ALDS. You might recall that didn't work out so well.

If Burnett throws a gem, then fantastic, all's well that ends well. But if this doesn't work out for Girardi, he's going to be taking a world of shit for it. On one hand, you can give him some credit for sticking his neck out and making a very questionable decision and going with his convictions, but on the other hand you can look at this as another instance or overmanaging and a potentially fatal one at that.

I get the feeling that this postseason could bring out the worst fan in some us, should things fail to go as planned. The kind of fan who criticizes announcers and questions the manager. Oh wait, I've already done both and the games haven't even started yet. At least I haven't bitched about the umpiring. We'll leave that to angry Tigers fans.

Twins & Tigers Thrill Through Twelve

Good morning, Fackers. Did you see that game last night? If you didn't, you're probably already regretting it. It was one of the all-too-rare moments in sports in general and baseball in particular when a game with huge implications delivers huge drama. One of the few times that we can look at incredible over hyping that led up to the event after the fact and it actually seems less ridiculous. It would have been a great game had you stripped away the context of what was at stake.

With the spotlight pretty much all to themselves on a quiet Tuesday night in the world of sports, with their seasons on the line, the Twins and Tigers played like it. I hate do trot out the old boxing metaphors about "trading blows" and "having each other on the ropes" but there isn't really any other way to characterize the changes in momentum. The game even went 12 rounds innings.

We've been lucky with the last three play-in games. The Rockies and Padres came down to a play at the plate in '07, the White Sox and Twins last year turned on an 8th inning home run and ended on a great catch, but this year's version might have been the best of the trio.

Check out the WPA graph. It looks like the results of a polygraph test.

I didn't "see" the game until the bottom of the 10th inning. I was doing some painting (housework, not art) and started with the Tigers' radio broadcast on WXYT with Dan Dickerson and Jim Price. Then I flipped over to the Minnesota guys to see if I liked it any better, but that was a terrible, terrible mistake. John "Gordo" Gordon has a laughable token radio voice and constantly places the emphasis on the wrong words. I'd say he's a cut-rate Jon Miller, but that would be giving him too much credit.

I stuck with the Detroit fellows until I had to run an errand and got the ESPN Radio team for the whole 9th and top of the 10th inning. I believe it was Gary Thorne and Dave Campbell and those guys were excellent. I finally got in front of the TV for the bottom of the 10th until the end and by then I wasn't paying attention to a word Chip Caray said.

There's nothing like some mindless labor and a good baseball game on the radio. If you're with around other people or the game isn't compelling, it's easy to lose track of what's going on. But when you are alone, applying coat upon coat of latex paint to a metal door, it's easy to get entranced in a hardball battle as good as the one last night.

After striking out one batter in each of his last three starts, twenty year-old Rick Porcello matched his season high in K's with 8, all swinging. Neyer surmised yesterday that he might have been a little tired down the stretch, so maybe the fact that he hadn't pitched in a week cured what ailed him. The kid should just be starting his junior year in college but instead he was starting a game with an MLB team's playoff chances in his hands, and did a pretty damn good job.

He pitched 5 2/3, and allowed two runs, one earned. However, the unearned run scored on Porcello's error - a botched pickoff throw to first in the third inning that could have been worse had it not his Twins first base coach Jerry White. He had nearly picked off Denard Span a few throws earlier but made the rookie mistake of not realizing that you usually only get one good chance to get someone snoozing with a big lead. The earned one came in the 6th when he allowed a solo homer to Jason Kubel.

In so far as it's okay to like a Boras bonus baby from another team, I think I like Rick Porcello. One more of these and I'm sold.

The villain in this game, aside from the Metrodome, was clearly Miguel Cabrera. The (wife) slugger was booed vociferously anytime he came to the plate or touched the ball. He responded in a big way though, with a double in the gap in his first at bat and a two run homer that temporarily put the Tigers ahead 3-0 and hushed the crowed in his second.

The hero was probably another man named Cabrera... Orlando. He hit a two run homer in the 7th inning that gave the Twins a one run lead and afterwards said it was the best game he ever played in.

In the top of the 9th, the Tigers looked to be set up with runners on 1st and 3rd with no one out but Joe Nathan struck out Placido Polanco looking and then got Magglio Ordonez to line out into a double play to short.

Brandon Inge had a double and an RBI, but also a diving, game-saving catch in the 9th on a bounce that almost certainly would have scored the winning run. I just listened to the highlight on MLB.com and in typical Chip Caray fashion he declared that the play saved a run but didn't acknowledge that said run would have ended the game, since the score was tied at 4-4 and it was the bottom of the 9th. Get ready!

Ryan Rayburn was very nearly the goat after he badly misplayed a single into a triple, putting what proved to be the tying run on third with no one out. He partially redeemed himself by catching a line out by Nick Punto and gunning down Alexi Casilla at home plate to end the inning. The speedy Casilla blundered by tagging up a moment too late, and was tagged out by Gerald Laird by the slimmest of margins.

Casilla got some redemption of his own in the bottom of the 12th when he lined a one out single to right field to drive in Carlos Gomez from third and send the Twins to New York.

Get some rest, Twinkies. Don't stay up too late savoring your thrilling victory. Wouldn't want you to be all tired for the game tomorrow...

Game 163: Find Out

It's not a Yankees game, but I thought I'd put together a preview for the match up between the Twins and Tigers taking place at 5:00. Yes, folks, 5:00. A lot of you will probably be stuck at work for the first few innings and it's not going to carry the night like a typical 7:00 game would, but it should be entertaining nonetheless.

The Tigers have completely backed themselves into this position after taking 2 out of 4 head to head games against the Twins which most everyone assumed would be enough to secure the AL Central. It was not, however, as the lost two out of their last three to the White Sox and the Twins swept from the Royals. Denard Span doesn't want to say the Tigers choked, but well, he kind of did.

The Tigers take the field under the dark cloud of Miguel Cabrera's domestic incident that some are saying should lead to his suspension for the rest of the season. Other, more rational people are saying that the Tigers already knew about this incident on Saturday and let him play anyway, and if they bench him now, it will only be for PR purposes. As a Yankee fan, I hope they let him play in tonight's game, have him contribute to a Tigers' win, and then suspend him for the postseason. Am I right?

Tonight may also be the last game at the Metrodome unless the Twins, their homer hankies and the baggy have anything to say about that. Joe Posnanski compares the building roundly-despised disgrace to baseball to a movie villain who just won't die. Curtis Granderson had already bid it adieu last month. I had hoped the Yankees would never have to play there again but now there a relative coin flip will determine if that is the case. Rob Neyer thinks it might be better than that. David Pinto seconds that motion, as does the betting line, Baseball Prospectus and Cool Standings so what do I know?

The bottom line for our purposes, which FanGraphs reaffirmed and we Yankee bloggers have been saying for a while now is that either way, game #163 is good news for the Bombers. Whoever wins is going to have a plane sitting on the runway, ready to sweep them off to New York where the Yanks will be waiting, after working through a leisurely day of meetings and workouts.

The second ever inductee of the Fack Youk Hall of Fame, Rick Porcello starts for the Tigers tonight. While Neyer points out that he has only struck out 10 batters over his last 33 innings (and 3 over his last 17 1/3), Porcello has a 3.00 ERA over his last 7 starts. He held the Twins to one run over 6 1/3 innings exactly one week ago, but that could work against him since the hitters have seen him recently.

Scott Baker will take the Twins playoff lives into his hands this evening. Baker faced the Tigers last Thursday and held them to 1 unearned run over 5 innings but needed 106 pitches to make it through those 15 outs. He'd been unimpressive in his 4 starts before that though, giving up 14 runs in 23 innings (5.48 ERA).

Tonight should be fun to watch. The Yankees get the chance to play emperor and spectate while these two teams fight 'til the death, awaiting the winner. Whichever way it goes, it will be good to finally find out who the Yanks' first round opponent will be.

[Minnesota is basically Canada, so it's time for everyone's (well, my) favorite Canadian rapper, Classified...]

(You gonna find out)
Sooner or later,
(You gonna find out)
Are you ready for this?
(You gonna find out)
Tell 'em who it is...

Molina To Catch Burnett In ALDS

Via LoHud, according to Posada, that's what the plan is. Head on over there for audio with Posada, the relevant questioning starts around the 3:50 mark. He doesn't sound too happy, but he doesn't sound too surprised, either.

The Case Of Melky v. Gardner

Aside from debating the merits of Jose Molina catching a playoff game over Jorge Posada, which has already been done pretty extensively, there is really only one other marginal decision that Joe Girardi has to make in terms of configuring his starting line-up. Center field is that one area of debate, where both Melky Cabrera and Brett Gardner have a case to start.

They've both had up and down years and each has skills that the other doesn't. Melky hit 13 home runs this year while Gardner still stole 26 bases despite being on base just over 100 times. His speed also makes Gardner far less likely to ground into double plays. Melky has about twice as many plate apperances but has bounced into five times more twin killings.

Gardner offers much better defense, but Melky is still above average in center. For what it's worth, Melky has shown a penchant for big hits this year even though Gardner has better "clutch" stats. The Melk Man had a decidedly better September/October although that isn't very important either.

If either are left out of the line up and substituted for each other late in the game, Melky can provide the power as a pinch hitter while Gardner can add some speed (and better range in center) as a pinch runner or defensive replacement.

Being a switch-hitter, Melky offers better production against lefties although Gardner's tiny split of 55 PAs with a .356 BABIP doesn't bear that out quite yet. What you might not have expected is that Cabrera also has a better OPS than Brett the Jet against righties (.747 to .708). However, he's better in terms of average and power but is comparable in OBP, which is easily the most important of the three categories, especially over a limited sample.

Each of the three starters the Twins is likely to use in the ALDS is right handed: Kevin Slowey, Carl Pavano, and Scott Baker. Ditto for the Tigers with Justin Verlander, Edwin Jackson and Rick Porcello.

How should Girardi fill the CF slot, and presumably 9 hole in the line up in the games where Jose Molina isn't catching? Gardner brings two assets (speed and defense) to the table which would seem to be valuable in playoff games, but Melky has been a better hitter over the course of the season and has proved it over more at bats.

Considering all of the pitchers the Yankees are facing are right handers, should one guy start every game until further notice? If you figure that one is better than the other, is there a reason to divide the starts? Have they both earned the right to play in the postseason? Should that matter?

[Update 12:50: Greg from Pending Pinstripes has explored this topic in-depth and feels that Gardner is the clear answer. Here are three of his posts... Missing Brett Gardner, Brett Gardner's Off the DL, Should Melky Still Be Starting?, and Melky Cabrera Is Not As Clutch As You Might Think. There's good stuff in all of those entries and it's a slow day for baseball news on the internets, so check them out. If you weren't already leaning towards Gardner, that might be enough to push you over the fence.]

2008 vs. 2009: It's a WAR

Last night, the always brilliant Beyond the Boxscore, in light of the announcement of the Comeback Player of the Year award, took a look at who (among the top 10 vote-getters) had the biggest swings in Wins Above Replacement. I'll refrain from saying "who deserved the award" because I think Comeback Player of the Year is one that should be somewhat subjective and context-heavy because players can "comeback" from a variety of things and that should probably be taken into consideration. That and no one really cares that much about who gets the award anyway.

Chris Carpenter won in the National League and looking at WAR backed that up along with the top four finishes in the voting.

However, the numbers did not match the voting in the American League. Aaron Hill was given the award, but he was actually had the 4th biggest comeback in WAR behind Juan Rivera, Victor Martinez and our own Jorge Posada who had the largest. However, Jorge finished 4th in the voting behind Martinez and Michael Cuddyer probably because he missed time to injury and was relatively productive in his time with the club.

It seems like this year, there have been a ton of Yankees who have improved on last year's campaign, not to mention the three marquee free agents and Nick Swisher who weren't on the team last year. Below, you can find two charts displaying the differences in WAR from 2008 to 2009. BtB measures the dip between the last good year they had and 2009 but I'm only looking at the last two years. (All data via FanGraphs)

First, the position players:

Some interesting stuff here...

• Pretty cosmic shift in run production there, 15.6 wins. The Yanks won 89 games last year and 103 this year. You do the math.
  
  
• I didn't use the more complicated method that BtB did, but those measurements show that Posada wasn't even the most improved player on the Yankees in relation to last year.
  
  
• Jeter made some major strides defensively but his OPS also ended up exactly 100 points higher than in 2008.
  
  
• Obviously, Teixeira represents a vast improvement over the 'stache, taking absolutely no one by surprise.
  
  
• Even with the great year Bobby Abreu is having out in L.A., he's only been worth 2.7 WAR. Still a great pick-up by the Angels for the money ($5M) but the Yanks have been better off with Swish, even though his defense isn't exactly sparkling either.
  
  
• Who would have guessed that Johnny Damon was more valuable in 2008? Hands, please. He's been better with the bat but his fielding has declined by almost 10 runs.
  
  
• If you extrapolate A-Rod's production to a full season he comes awfully close to replicating his 2008 value.

And the pitchers:

• How about the fact that this slice of the 2008 staff was actually worth more in 2008 than in 2009? Not a complete measurement but it's obvious which side of the ball had the most impact in taking the team from third in the AL East to first in all of baseball.
  
  
• I chose Sabathia to replace Mussina since they were the best pitcher in each year. I paired Burnett with Darrel Rasner, Sidney Ponson and Carl Pavano since those combined had about the same number of innings and they would have needed to find similar scrubs to fill in had Burnett not been acquired.
  
  
• Phil Hughes proves that point that if you can be a great reliever, you're more valuable than a bad starter, but I think we already knew that.
  
  
• Before looking, I thought Andy Pettitte would have been more valuable this year than last, but apparently not. I'm honestly not sure what's causing the variance there.
  
  
• Mo saved 39 games last year and blew only 1, while this year he converted 44 and blew 2. His W/L record last year was 6-5 and this year it was 3-3. Wins and saves are bad stats but we are talking about Wins Above Replacement here.
  
  
• Joba derived a good amount of value pitching out of the bullpen last year, which accounts for a lot of the difference.
  
• Our poor Wang got beaten pretty severely this year. He alone makes up for the difference between '08 and '09.