Game 75 Recap

[WE data via FanGraphs]

When Joba Chamberlain gave up an RBI double to Rafael Furcal with two outs in the bottom of the eighth, the Yankees looked to be dead to rights. It cut the Yanks' chances of winning from about three percent to one percent. When Mark Teixeira struck out looking on a 97mph fastball from Jonathan Bronxton leading off the ninth inning, it hacked the Bombers' odds of pulling it out by a third once again from 1.2% all the way down to 0.4%.

There wasn't much reason to be hopeful, either. Andy Pettitte had a bad start (by his high standards this year) despite not getting hit all that hard. The Dodgers laid down three consecutive bunts in the third inning and none resulted in outs - Andy made throwing errors on two of them and the third was a single. He gave up two more on a sac fly and a homer in the fourth, putting the Yanks in a 5-0 hole. The offense had been stagnant up until that point, the only two runs they scored coming on a home run by Alex Rodriguez, but unfortunately he was up after Teixeira and you can't hit a grand slam with the bases empty.

A-Rod did his job of not using up an out, poked a single through left field and advanced on defensive indifference before Robinson Cano drove him in with a double. Jorge Posada singled, moving Cano to third, and advanced on indifference as Curtis Granderson was in the process of working a tough 8 pitch walk from Broxton to load the bases. All of a sudden the Yanks had the go-ahead run at the plate and still only one out.

Recent call-up Chad Huffman (who came in for an injured Brett Gardner) let two 96mph heaters pass, one for a ball and one for a strike, but smacked the third one into right field, driving in Posada and Cano. Colin Curtis, who was also in Scranton not too long ago, battled through a 10 pitch at bat against Broxton and grounded a ball to first. James Loney fielded it and instead of trying to start an inning-ending double play at second or throw home to save the run, he attempted to get the force at first and then throw home. However, Granderson beat the ball to the plate and the score was tied at six runs apiece.

The Dodgers intentionally walked Derek Jeter and retired Frankie Cervelli, but the Yankees had made a divine comeback and gave themselves a chance to steal the series on their way out of the City of Angels.

It wouldn't take long. Riding the momentum of the moment, Girardi went to Mariano Rivera and he took down the side in order in the bottom of the ninth. Robinson Cano rewarded the aggressive move by launching a two run homer in the 10th off of George Sherrill (who Torre brought in specifically for him) to give the Yanks the lead. James Loney led off the bottom half of the inning with a single but Rivera struck out Russell Martin (who got ejected after throwing a tantrum over a pitch that was obviously a strike) and Reed Johnson (who was 3-4 on the night at that point) before inducing a game inning grounder from Jamey Carroll.

Without looking up the specifics, it's feels like it's been a long time since the Yankees have had a miraculous late comeback like this one [Update: Larry says it's the biggest 9th inning rally since April 2007]. It would have been sweet regardless, but the fact that it nailed down a series victory and came against some old friends makes it a little bit sweeter. The team has the day off today as they head back home and rest up before a three game set against the Mariners.

2008 vs. 2009: It's a WAR

Last night, the always brilliant Beyond the Boxscore, in light of the announcement of the Comeback Player of the Year award, took a look at who (among the top 10 vote-getters) had the biggest swings in Wins Above Replacement. I'll refrain from saying "who deserved the award" because I think Comeback Player of the Year is one that should be somewhat subjective and context-heavy because players can "comeback" from a variety of things and that should probably be taken into consideration. That and no one really cares that much about who gets the award anyway.

Chris Carpenter won in the National League and looking at WAR backed that up along with the top four finishes in the voting.

However, the numbers did not match the voting in the American League. Aaron Hill was given the award, but he was actually had the 4th biggest comeback in WAR behind Juan Rivera, Victor Martinez and our own Jorge Posada who had the largest. However, Jorge finished 4th in the voting behind Martinez and Michael Cuddyer probably because he missed time to injury and was relatively productive in his time with the club.

It seems like this year, there have been a ton of Yankees who have improved on last year's campaign, not to mention the three marquee free agents and Nick Swisher who weren't on the team last year. Below, you can find two charts displaying the differences in WAR from 2008 to 2009. BtB measures the dip between the last good year they had and 2009 but I'm only looking at the last two years. (All data via FanGraphs)

First, the position players:

Some interesting stuff here...

• Pretty cosmic shift in run production there, 15.6 wins. The Yanks won 89 games last year and 103 this year. You do the math.
  
  
• I didn't use the more complicated method that BtB did, but those measurements show that Posada wasn't even the most improved player on the Yankees in relation to last year.
  
  
• Jeter made some major strides defensively but his OPS also ended up exactly 100 points higher than in 2008.
  
  
• Obviously, Teixeira represents a vast improvement over the 'stache, taking absolutely no one by surprise.
  
  
• Even with the great year Bobby Abreu is having out in L.A., he's only been worth 2.7 WAR. Still a great pick-up by the Angels for the money ($5M) but the Yanks have been better off with Swish, even though his defense isn't exactly sparkling either.
  
  
• Who would have guessed that Johnny Damon was more valuable in 2008? Hands, please. He's been better with the bat but his fielding has declined by almost 10 runs.
  
  
• If you extrapolate A-Rod's production to a full season he comes awfully close to replicating his 2008 value.

And the pitchers:

• How about the fact that this slice of the 2008 staff was actually worth more in 2008 than in 2009? Not a complete measurement but it's obvious which side of the ball had the most impact in taking the team from third in the AL East to first in all of baseball.
  
  
• I chose Sabathia to replace Mussina since they were the best pitcher in each year. I paired Burnett with Darrel Rasner, Sidney Ponson and Carl Pavano since those combined had about the same number of innings and they would have needed to find similar scrubs to fill in had Burnett not been acquired.
  
  
• Phil Hughes proves that point that if you can be a great reliever, you're more valuable than a bad starter, but I think we already knew that.
  
  
• Before looking, I thought Andy Pettitte would have been more valuable this year than last, but apparently not. I'm honestly not sure what's causing the variance there.
  
  
• Mo saved 39 games last year and blew only 1, while this year he converted 44 and blew 2. His W/L record last year was 6-5 and this year it was 3-3. Wins and saves are bad stats but we are talking about Wins Above Replacement here.
  
  
• Joba derived a good amount of value pitching out of the bullpen last year, which accounts for a lot of the difference.
  
• Our poor Wang got beaten pretty severely this year. He alone makes up for the difference between '08 and '09.

A Letter To Joe Girardi

Dear Mr. Girardi,

Last night was very nearly incredibly awesome. A 5 run comeback in the 9th inning would have been a monumental achievement and the best comeback victory in a season with 40 of them already. It would have returned the favor to the Rangers, who got quite lucky to string together a 5 run rally without making an out themselves in the 4th inning (which it might surprise you to learn, didn't include a bunt attempt). But last night was not awesome. It was incredibly frustrating.

You see, Joe, last night my roommates and I decided to take the plunge and buy a new TV. Big Willie Style's 32" had been holding down the mantle in the interim and it was time to get serious about our new place.

After a long day, we drove to Boscov's at around 8:30 and then to Sears, intent on acquiring one before the stores closed at 9:30. We very nearly bought this 42" LG for $700, but they didn't have it in stock. After a serious amount of deliberating, we decided to go with this 46" Samsung which was priced at $1200 on the shelf but after the 10% discount I got for opening a Sears card (which I'm literally never going to use after this purchase) it was $1166 after taxes. No interest or payments for 6 months to boot. Not bad. Am I right, Joe? Or perhaps you might have gone with the 24 months of free financing, since that's what "the book" on buying TVs says.

After we got the TV loaded in the van, it was about 9:50 and we turned on the game just in time to John and Suzyn called Michael Young's two run homer in the 7th inning. Great. On the way home we listened to the radio duo swoon over Neftali Feliz and compare him to Joba as he touched 100 on the radar gun (101 according to pitch f/x). We arrived back at the apartment and set up the new toy just in time for the top of the ninth.

We cracked a few Dogfish Head Immort Ales to celebrate and watched as Damaso Marte work a pretty solid inning in amazing 1080i resolution. Predictably, we marveled at the new awesomeness of our new TV, which fit on top of our mantle like the stand had been custom made for it.

Then the 9th inning came, Joe. Remember it? After the Yankees sent six straight runners to the plate without making an out, you decided to give one away by asking a guy who is terrible a bunting to do something, which even if he was successful at, would have hurt the team's chances at winning. The run expectation actually declines when you go from men on first and second with no outs to runners on second and with one down. Take a look.

Furthermore, Frank Francisco had already walked A-Rod and thrown fewer than half of his pitches for strikes. You took away Nick Swisher's excellent ability to work a walk by having him bunt in that spot. Did you see Francisco's first pitch? It was at fucking eye level. How do not make that guy throw strikes?

You asked a guy to bunt who can't bunt to set the table for a guy who is worse than 50% at getting the runner in from third with less than 2 outs. It's a stupid move in principle and it was even dumber under these circumstances.

And when it failed completely, you stormed around in the dugout like a fucking 4 year old because your fucking boneheaded decision didn't work out.

In all fairness, I stormed around my apartment at the same time, but I was acting like at least an 8 year old.

So thanks, Joe. It could have been one of the best TV Christenings in the history of mankind. But as soon as you started meddling and overmanaging, the whole thing went to shit.

Yes, right THERE. In the highest possible leverage situation.

I'm not blaming Melky Cabrera for lining into a double play, Joe. The entire situation would have been different if you let Nick Swisher take a full swing at the ball instead of conceding a precious out to a guy who could hardly throw a strike.

This is your fault.

Fuck you,

Fack Youk

This Will Make You Feel Better