2008 vs. 2009: It's a WAR

Last night, the always brilliant Beyond the Boxscore, in light of the announcement of the Comeback Player of the Year award, took a look at who (among the top 10 vote-getters) had the biggest swings in Wins Above Replacement. I'll refrain from saying "who deserved the award" because I think Comeback Player of the Year is one that should be somewhat subjective and context-heavy because players can "comeback" from a variety of things and that should probably be taken into consideration. That and no one really cares that much about who gets the award anyway.

Chris Carpenter won in the National League and looking at WAR backed that up along with the top four finishes in the voting.

However, the numbers did not match the voting in the American League. Aaron Hill was given the award, but he was actually had the 4th biggest comeback in WAR behind Juan Rivera, Victor Martinez and our own Jorge Posada who had the largest. However, Jorge finished 4th in the voting behind Martinez and Michael Cuddyer probably because he missed time to injury and was relatively productive in his time with the club.

It seems like this year, there have been a ton of Yankees who have improved on last year's campaign, not to mention the three marquee free agents and Nick Swisher who weren't on the team last year. Below, you can find two charts displaying the differences in WAR from 2008 to 2009. BtB measures the dip between the last good year they had and 2009 but I'm only looking at the last two years. (All data via FanGraphs)

First, the position players:

Some interesting stuff here...

• Pretty cosmic shift in run production there, 15.6 wins. The Yanks won 89 games last year and 103 this year. You do the math.
  
  
• I didn't use the more complicated method that BtB did, but those measurements show that Posada wasn't even the most improved player on the Yankees in relation to last year.
  
  
• Jeter made some major strides defensively but his OPS also ended up exactly 100 points higher than in 2008.
  
  
• Obviously, Teixeira represents a vast improvement over the 'stache, taking absolutely no one by surprise.
  
  
• Even with the great year Bobby Abreu is having out in L.A., he's only been worth 2.7 WAR. Still a great pick-up by the Angels for the money ($5M) but the Yanks have been better off with Swish, even though his defense isn't exactly sparkling either.
  
  
• Who would have guessed that Johnny Damon was more valuable in 2008? Hands, please. He's been better with the bat but his fielding has declined by almost 10 runs.
  
  
• If you extrapolate A-Rod's production to a full season he comes awfully close to replicating his 2008 value.

And the pitchers:

• How about the fact that this slice of the 2008 staff was actually worth more in 2008 than in 2009? Not a complete measurement but it's obvious which side of the ball had the most impact in taking the team from third in the AL East to first in all of baseball.
  
  
• I chose Sabathia to replace Mussina since they were the best pitcher in each year. I paired Burnett with Darrel Rasner, Sidney Ponson and Carl Pavano since those combined had about the same number of innings and they would have needed to find similar scrubs to fill in had Burnett not been acquired.
  
  
• Phil Hughes proves that point that if you can be a great reliever, you're more valuable than a bad starter, but I think we already knew that.
  
  
• Before looking, I thought Andy Pettitte would have been more valuable this year than last, but apparently not. I'm honestly not sure what's causing the variance there.
  
  
• Mo saved 39 games last year and blew only 1, while this year he converted 44 and blew 2. His W/L record last year was 6-5 and this year it was 3-3. Wins and saves are bad stats but we are talking about Wins Above Replacement here.
  
  
• Joba derived a good amount of value pitching out of the bullpen last year, which accounts for a lot of the difference.
  
• Our poor Wang got beaten pretty severely this year. He alone makes up for the difference between '08 and '09.

My Back Pages

We say this every morning in the form of the typical greeting, but today truly is a good morning, Fackers. The Yankees clinched their first playoff berth under Joe Girardi. Sure it had been a virtual inevitability for a good month or so, but it feels a lot different now that it's locked up. It didn't hurt that they won a back and forth game against a potential postseason opponent to do their part of it, either.

The Yankees did it the right way, and didn't go for the over-the-top champagne celebration, or really any celebration at all, actually. Joe Girardi gathered the team and simply said "Congratulations, and let's keep it going". He acted like he had been there before, even though he hadn't as a manager. You've gotta respect that.

Make no mistake, the reason that this is even remotely satisfying as fans is because of last year. Had the Yankees just clinched their 15 consecutive postseason berth, no one would have batted an eyelash. In '08, I remember watching the odds of the Yankees qualifying the playoffs dwindle down to 10 and then 5 percent and trying to talk myself into believing that a miraculous late surge, coupled with a Rays' collapse was in store. Needless to say, it was not.

A lot of the post season magic and luster was lost in 2004, but it wasn't until last year that the Yanks truly hit rock bottom. Simply playing out the string last September and watching the Old Stadium close down was humbling in ways that I didn't expect.

I think before that, most Yankee fans, especially my age, thought of a playoff bid as something of a birthright. The last time they actually missed the playoffs before '08 was 1993 (they were the best team in the AL in 1994 before the strike hit). I was 9 years old at that point and obviously wasn't yet a Saturday Package holder and a daily reader of Yankee blogs.

This year, it seems like a new experience. The twenty four months that have passed since the Yanks lost the Bug Game and were unceremoniously bounced three nights later by the Indians is an eternity in baseball years. The Yanks might not want to stop to enjoy this moment, but we will, at least momentarily. There are bigger and better things in store for this team, but the significance of this moment is not lost around these parts.

Game 140: Good Times, Bad Times

One hundred thirty nine games into last season, the Yankees were 75-64, 10 games back in the AL East, 7 removed from the Wild Card and it was becoming apparent that their season would conclude with a bunch of meaningless games at the end of September. The Yanks had the best record in the AL East from then on, but still ended up 6 games behind the Red Sox and out of the mix when October rolled around.

They were also in the process of taking a series from the Rays, but it was Tampa who was sitting atop the Division and holding comfortable cushion for a postseason berth. This time around, however, the roles have been reversed, with the Yanks sitting pretty and the Rays down and out.

One of the Rays' September call ups last year will be today's starter. The first overall draft pick in '07 out of Vanderbuilt, David Price, who emerged as a reliever for the stretch run in '08 was transitioned into the rotation after being called up at the end of May this year. Much like Phil Hughes and Joba Chamberlain, Price excelled in his role in the bullpen, and while he has had some exceptional moments, has struggled to become an effective starting pitcher. Price is averaging just 5 1/3 innings over 18 starts and has an ERA of 4.75 (96 ERA+) and WHIP of 1.469. That's average a best, and actually not as good as Joba has been this year in fewer innings.

As you may or may not recall, on September 14th last year, David Price faced the Yankees for the first time and and Derek Jeter welcomed him to the Bronx with a 9 pitch at bat that ended with a solo home run to right-center field. It has been his only hit in 5 plate appearances against Price but he has also worked a walk.

Making his 3rd start of the year for the Yankees is Mr. Chad Gaudin. In his last one against the Blue Jays, he was staked to a 5-0 lead but hit a major snag in the 4th inning. He gave up a walk, a HBP and 3 singles which led to three runs before being pulled in favor of Alfredo Aceves. He threw 80 pitches that day and figures to be able to extend that number towards 100 today since he is functioning on normal rest.

After the line up was disrupted for several days due to the turf in Toronto and the doubleheader yesterday, the Yanks are nearly at full strength, with the exception of Jeter DH'ing while Jerry Hairston plays shortstop (instead of Ramiro Pena for whatever reason). At this point of the season, I guess that doesn't really matter than much.

The games played this September figure to be almost as meaningless as the ones last year, but since 2008 was so empty and unfulfilling, it makes it that much better this time around.

In the days of my youth,
I was told what it was to be a man,
Now I've reached the age,
I've tried to do all those things the best I can.
No matter how I try,
I find my way to do the same old jam.

Good times, bad times,
You know I've had my share

As Good As It Gets

The photo of Chien Ming Wang above was taken on June 15th , 2008, just before he stepped into the batter's box against Roy Oswalt in the fifth inning. With men on first and second, Wang squared to bunt and laid it on the ground in front of Oswalt, who threw Jorge Posada out at third base for the second out of the inning. Wang took his place on first after the unsuccessful sacrifice.

Comfortably the best pitcher in the Yankees' starting rotation to that point, Wang had cruised through the Astros line-up that Sunday afternoon, having not allowed a run in 5 innings and the Yanks sat atop a comfortable 3-0 lead. The win they would notch later in the day would bring them to 4 games over .500, their high water mark on the season at the time.

Next up was Johnny Damon who hit a grounder towards Miguel Tejada at short. Wang, not the fastest of runners, would have been out comfortably at second, but Tejada mishandled the ball and everyone was safe. This in turn brought up Derek Jeter, who hit what might have been the costliest three run single in Yankee history. Cano scored easily on the play, but as he rounded third base, Wang came up limping and the rest was history. They were tack-on runs in what turned out to be a 13-0 blowout and it probably wouldn't have happened if Miguel Tejada had fielded Damon's ball cleanly.

The Lisfranc injury sustained by the sinkerballer not only struck a huge blow to the Yankees chances of making the playoffs in 2008, but has seemingly since submarined his career.

When I look at the picture above, I think about the scene they have in a lot of movies, where things reach an obvious high point and the characters are blissfully unaware of the demise that is sure to follow. Like in Casino where Ace and Ginger are cutting the cake at their wedding. Everything is wonderful until Ginger sneaks out during the reception to call her old pimp of a boyfriend, Lester Diamond, from a pay phone in the hallway. Similar to Blow where they buy the house in Mexico and everyone jumps in the pool right before George gets knocked for the first time. Or during the The Beach when they take a photo of everyone jumping in the air at the same time to symbolize how perfect and in-sync everything is. Of course when the three Swedish guys get attacked by sharks shortly thereafter, their little utopia dissolves quite quickly.

I'm not trying to say that Wang's wife is going to drive her Mercedes up on the lawn and steal the key to the safe deposit box. He won't serve any prison time. I don't think the Yankees are going to make him stand guard on the edge of the island waiting for the tourists who he gave a copy of the map to, only to watch them gunned down by marijuana farmers protecting their crops.

I do however, think that picture represents a freezeframe of the high water mark of Wang's career and that makes me really sad. The guy was an extremely valuable and inexpensive part of the Yankees for parts of 4 seasons and over 600 innings pitched. He has the support of an entire country. Now he's a guy with no clear role and a 14.34 ERA who can't catch a break.

Baseball can be a cruel game sometimes, can't it? Damn you Miguel Tejada!