Game 82: Mississippi Half Step

Today is the first day of the second half of the season. The Yankees, despite weathering a seemingly never-ending storm of injuries of varying severity and playing fairly mediocre baseball over the past three weeks or so, still find themselves on top of the standings and on pace for 100 wins.

It's easy to forget because of how dominant last year's team was from the All-Star Break on, but when the midpoint of the '09 season rolled around, the team was only 48-33, two games behind the pace set by the 2010 Yanks. Of course, the '09 squad won an incredible 55 games in the second half and rolled through the playoffs, but it's worth noting that this year's team had put itself in pretty good position despite all that has gone wrong for them so far.

Big injuries to Nick Johnson, Curtis Granderson and Jorge Posada (and countless other bumps and bruises distributed throughout the rest of the roster) have kept the team from being at full strength since early May. Robinson Cano has been a man possessed over these first 81 games, but he's had to pick of the slack left by Mark Teixeira, Alex Rodriguez and Derek Jeter, three of the teams biggest stars who have been producing below their career statlines. Brett Gardner and Nick Swisher have helped fill in some of those gaps as well, but the third starting outfielder, Granderson, has been below league average as a hitter in the 57 games he's appeared in.

Without Alfredo Aceves there to pitch crucial bridge innings since May 8th, the bullpen has been the Yanks' biggest weakness. Joba Chamberlain, David Robertson and Chan Ho Park, the three relievers the Yankees have depended on in late inning, high leverage situations, all have ERA's over 5 and are allowing from 1.46 (Park) to 1.9 (Robertson) baserunners per inning. Luckily for the Bombers, their starting rotation has taken a lot of pressure off of them.

Andy Pettitte, Phil Hughes and CC Sabathia have all collected 10 wins and are pitching admirably and aside from some sustained rough patches, A.J. Burnett and Javy Vazquez have been okay as well.

Vazquez goes tonight in Oakland against Ben Sheets, who the Yankees might have been in the market for, had they not pulled off the deal for Javy. Sheets is in an eight game streak during which he has either gone six or seven innings and given up three or four runs and watched his ERA hover right around the 5.00 mark.

The main difference between the situation the Yankees were in last year and this year at the midway point of the season is that there is a very tight three team race atop the division. The Yanks were a game behind the Red Sox and Tampa was six games back and fading fast at this point, whereas this year, all three teams are within two games of each other.

Like Nick Swisher said, coming into the season, if the Yanks knew they would have the best record in baseball at this point, they would have signed up for it immediately. The Yanks have no reason to be ashamed of the half season that they've left behind and there are reasons to hope that the one upcoming could be a little better.

If all you've got to live for, is what you left behind,
Get yourself a powder charge, and seal that silver mine.
Lost my boots in transit baby, a pile of smokin' leather,
I nailed a retread to my feet and prayed for better weather.

Halfstep, Mississippi uptown, toodeloo,
Hello baby, I'm gone, goodbye,
Half a cup of rock and rye,
Farewell to you old southern skies,
I'm on my way, on my way.

[Song Notes: Naturally, with the Yankees visiting the Bay area, we turn to their native sons, The Grateful Dead. This has long been one of my favorite Dead tunes and was one of the first songs I managed to sing and play at the same time - while I was on Semester at Sea. This two part video is from a show they played on April 26th, 1977 at the Capitol Theater in Passaic, NJ, right in the Yanks' backyard.]

-Lineups-

Yankees: X-Rays were negative but Jorge Posada is day to day after the foul tip that deflected awkwardly off of his glove hand. As a result, Nick Swisher takes his place in the six hole, Derek Jeter slides into the two slot for the first time this year and Brett Garnder makes his third appearance at leadoff.

Brett Gardner LF
Derek Jeter SS
Mark Teixeira 1B
Alex Rodriguez 3B
Robinson Cano 2B
Nick Swisher DH
Curtis Granderson CF
Francisco Cervelli C
Colin Curtis RF

Athletics:

Coco Crisp CF
Daric Barton 1B
Ryan Sweeney RF
Kurt Suzuki C
Jack Cust DH
Kevin Kouzmanoff 3B
Gabe Gross LF
Mark Ellis 2B
Cliff Pennington SS

Game 79: Brighter Days

Quietly - because they have taken and maintained the AL East lead in the process - the Yankees have lost seven of their last fourteen games. Aside from A.J. Burnett, their pitching has performed fairly well; it's the offense that's been the problem. After scoring 5.7 runs per game over their first 64 games of the year, the "Bombers" have managed to plate just 3.9 each time out over their last 14, putting them on the wrong side of the league average.

It's a small sample so it's not exactly cause for concern or reason to do something dumb like call up Jesus Montero (who isn't even hitting particularly well in AAA), but production is down across the board. The Yanks are still averaging about one home run per game and actually striking out somewhat less often that usual, but have collected about two fewer hits and one fewer walk over this more recent span. As a result, their slash line is .232/.302/.376 over the past two weeks, as compared to .280/.366/.448 from the beginning of the season until the can of whoop ass they opened up on Roy Halladay two Tuesdays ago.

While Brett Garnder, Derek Jeter and A-Rod all missed a game or two each over that time, aside from the "rehabbing" Nick Johnson, the lineup was mostly at full strength. What gives, then?

Simply put, the Yanks faced a lot of tough pitching recently. They got lucky to get to Roy Halladay, but Cliff Lee, Johan Santana and Clayton Kershaw are some of the most talented left handers in the game. Jamie Moyer and Hinsanori Takahashi are certainly not, but they both put together solid performances when they faced the Yanks. King Felix and Mike Pelfrey are two of the more overpowering young righties out there and the former most certainly was in his full glory on Wednesday night. Hiroki Kuroda isn't widely though of as a top-of-the-line pitcher, but he has a solid Major League track record.

It doesn't work out perfectly, so the Yanks beat some of the better pitchers (Dan Haren) they faced and lost a few of the marginal ones (Rodrigo Lopez), but those are the kind of things that pile up to form a slump. However, even if they break out of that funk in a big way today, a lot still depends on whether their starting pitcher can recover from five consecutive terrible starts.

A.J. Burnett looks to finally steer out of the month-long rough patch he's been in against his former team. Now that Dave Eiland has returned to the team and used his unparalleled expertise and rapport with A.J. to discover the problem that plagues pretty much every pitcher when they aren't throwing the ball well, perhaps it will finally come together for him.

Today will be the second of four consecutive day games for the Yankees, the longest such streak so far this season. So while they literally find themselves in the middle of some games where the sun is expected to be shining, hopefully things will get a bit brighter for Burnett and the Bombers' bats.

If I live till I die, will I be justly rewarded
If I sleep till I wake, will I remember the dream
If I lie to myself, will I have something to believe in
If I face my fears, will I know what they mean

-Lineups-

Yankees: In roster news, Dustin Moseley has been called up from Scranton, lest the Yankees allow him to opt for free agency. He'll likely take Boone Logan's place, but the move isn't official yet.

Francisco Cervelli catches Burnett today, which should probably provide A.J. a little more leeway to find his curveball and probably save him a wild pitch/passed ball or two. A-Rod returns to third base and opens up the DH slot for Posada, who will bat 6th. Brett Gardner is back in the order for the second day in a row, the contusion on his wrist apparently a thing of the past.

Derek Jeter SS
Nick Swisher RF
Mark Teixeira 1B
Alex Rodriguez 3B
Robinson Cano 2B
Jorge Posada DH
Curtis Granderson CF
Francisco Cervelli C
Brett Gardner LF

Blue Jays:

Fred Lewis LF
Alex Gonzalez SS
Jose Bautista RF
Vernon Wells CF
Adam Lind DH
Aaron Hill 2B
Lyle Overbay 1B
John Buck C

Game 71: Baby Snakes

The average age of the Arizona Diamondbacks' position players is 26.9. That's a half of a year less than the next two closest teams, the Pirates and the Marlins and two years younger than the league average. With a mean age of 30.3, the typical Yankees position player would have been out of high school before the average D-Back batter got their driver's license (in New York anyway).

The oldest regular stick on Arizona is first baseman Adam LaRoche, who is 30. In addition to the two notable younger brothers of well-known MLB players, Stephen Drew and Justin Upton, Mark Reynolds, Kelly Johnson, Chris Young, and Chris Synder are all regular players in their twenties. Geraldo Parra, who has stepped in to replace the recently-traded Connor Jackson, is just 23 years old as well and playing in his second year in the Bigs.

In nature, baby snakes typically hatch of out eggs, but rattlesnakes (including Diamondbacks) happen to give birth to live young - an apt metaphor for Arizona's offense. Despite their relative youth (or perhaps because of it) they've scored the third most runs in the National League, have hit the most homers, are second in slugging percentage and third in OPS.

Even with an offense that's plenty potent, the Diamondbacks still sit a staggering nine games back in the NL West. How is that possible? Partially because their offense numbers are inflated by their ballpark but mostly because of their horrible pitching staff.

Ian Kennedy, who landed in the desert by way of the trade that Curtis Granderson to the Yankees, has been their best starting pitcher so far, sporting an ERA of 3.60 after 15 starts. Brandon Webb injured his shoulder at the beginning of last year and hasn't been back since, but he can only be blamed for so much of the problem. Tonight's starter, Dan Haren, along with last night's, Rodrigo Lopez, and Edwin Jackson (who was also part of the Granderson deal) have ERA's above 4.50, but it really all comes down to the bullpen.

Their "closer", Chad Qualls, who recently lost his job to Aaron Heilman, is currently sporting an 8.87 ERA after blowing four saves in 16 chances and taking three additional losses beyond that. Don't worry, he's not injured, he just sucks. Of the 14 pitchers to throw in relief for them this year, only two have a positive ERA+: Heilman and Esmerling Vasquez. It's tough to win when you can't hold a lead.

So the Yankees failed on two fronts against Rodrigo Lopez last night, 1) not getting runs off of him and 2) not getting to the bullpen soon enough. Lopez had just 87 pitches heading into the 8th inning, and completed the frame on his 103rd. By the time a D-Backs' reliever got the ball, they had a seven run lead and need only to record three outs. I can understand bats going cold, but patience at the plate shouldn't. Perhaps they were just tired after having flown to Arizona and not gotten a day off and mentally checked out when A.J. Burnett got whacked around like a pinata. Perhaps they got a little more rest last night and are now ready to take care of business.

When they face Dan Haren at 9:40 this evening, the Bombers are going to have to either score some runs off of him, or work up his pitch count and get him out of the game early. And try to limit the baby snakes to less than 10 runs. That would also help.

(Baby sna-yay-kes),
Late at night is when they come out,
(Baby sna-yay-kes),
Sure you know what I'm talkin' about.

[Song notes: Baby Snakes is also the name of a really fucking weird clay-mation movie that Zappa made. Since the game doesn't start until 9:40, here are three parts of it. It's not the full 166 minute director's cut, but I don't think anyone would want to watch that anyway.]

Remembering The Weekend

Welcome back, Fackers. In a perfect world, the time away from work afforded by holiday weekends would give you some time to catch your breath and recharge your batteries. However, if you really try to make the most of the relatively brief hiatus and shoehorn a bunch of things in, you typically end up tired and foggy at your desk on the morning you come back, finding ways to avoid beginning the arduous process of digging through emails sent by assholes who actually got things accomplished over the weekend and trying to remember where you left off on Friday (or possibly Thursday if that's when you mentally checked out). That's probably why you're reading this post, in fact.

In general, I find that the more time I spend away from work, the less I want to go back to it. In that case, I suppose that a taste of honey is worse than none at all. Maybe that's just because I've never had a job that I actually liked, but how many people can honestly say they do?

/hacky talk radio segue

Well, the Yankees certainly embraced their occupation this weekend as they gave the Indians a signature Bronx beatdown!!1/!11!

Our song choice for the four games was somewhat presumptuous but the Bombers did not disappoint, taking three games out of four. Of course, the one that they lost was in spectacular fashion due to a bullpen meltdown which begun with an ineffective and ultimately injured David Robertson, was exacerbated by Joe Girardi matching up with a four run lead and completed by Joba Chamberlain, who faced six batters and got only one of them out. The Yanks had a 97% chance of winning the game after the completion of the fifth inning on Saturday but allowed the Indians - who hadn't scored 10 runs in a game all year - to plate seven in the top of the seventh and win by a score of 13-11.

There was a very scary moment earlier in that game, as Alex Rodriguez lined a pitch right off the side of the head of Cleveland's starting pitcher, David Huff. The 25 year old left hander was wheeled off on a stretcher after lying motionless on the ground for several minutes but gave raised his hand to signify that he was okay while being lifted and luckily, a CT scan didn't show any serious damage. When it happened A-Rod appeared to be legitimately torn up over it as he put his hands on his head and took a knee in the infield while the medical staff tended to Huff.

After the game, Rodriguez tried unsuccessfully to make it to the hospital where Huff had been taken only to find out that he was back at the Stadium, but did finally get in touch with him. Huff called the effort "one class act", something that you don't typically hear directed towards A-Rod from a low profile player on another team.

In other comparatively minor injury news, David Robertson suffered some back issues and had to be removed from Saturday's game and Derek Jeter left yesterday's contest after getting hit in the back of the thigh with a pitch. Both of those are thought to be minor issues and each player should be available tonight. Perhaps Jeter will DH just to be safe.

Now that we've got the bad out of the way, the most encouraging sign of the weekend (despite the fact that the Indians' pitching is one of the worst staffs in the league) was the resurgence of the offense. The Yanks plated 37 runs in the four game set and scored more in every single one of the games than they had in any contest since they hung eleven on Boston two weeks ago in Fenway. They tallied 55 hits and hit two grand slams, one by Robinson Cano on Sunday and one by A-Rod (the 20th of his career) after the Indians threw an intentional ball four to Mark Teixeira yesterday. A-Rod is now 5-5 when Teix is given a intentional free pass in front of him.

The offensive resurgence coincided with the return of Curtis Granderson but his four hits (three doubles) only went so far. Derek Jeter had a solid weekend, collecting nine hits and scoring five runs. Cano was the best of the bunch, picking up ten hits (two homers) while extending his hitting streak to 14 games and driving in ten runs.

With the exception of Saturday's poor showing by CC Sabathia and the bullpen, the Yanks' pitching was solid in the balance of the series, allowing just four runs over the other 27 innings. Phil Hughes tossed seven frames of two run ball on Friday night, A.J. Burnett gave up three (only one earned) in his eight innings on Sunday and Andy Pettitte improved upon his career best start to the season with seven innings of one run ball yesterday. Having throw only 90 pitches and given up just four baserunners to that point, Pettitte wanted to go deeper into the game, but the offense batted around and plated six runs during the seventh inning. The 45 minute wait was too much for Andy and he took the easy win, leaving a little bit in the tank.

Perhaps the most memorable moment of the weekend (from my recollection, anyway) came from Mariano Rivera. In the process of getting the final out of Sunday's game, Mo dodged a broken bat from Luis Valbuena and fielded the soft grounder that arrived considerably after the lumber in enough to to easily convert the out at first base. The ultra slow motion replays make it look like something out of The Matrix.

Rivera jumped over the bat but kept his glove down and reached for the ball, nearly snagging it in mid-air, but still knocking it down in the process. It happened incredibly quickly in real time, but the the super slow replay revealed that every motion that Mariano made was smooth and purposeful, completely unfazed by the fact a sharp, heavy object was flying at his shins.

They say the greatest athletes can process things so quickly that time seems to go by slower in their minds. Watching that replay affirms what Matt and countless others have said about Rivera: he's more than just a great pitcher.

=====

Of course, part of the reason that the Yankees looked so good over the weekend was because they were playing the hapless Indians, but the Yanks performed like the team that started the season 21-8, not the one that went 5-10 in the fifteen games following that.

It's foolish to keep taking the temperature of the team and attempt to project it out onto the rest of the season, but it's hard not to be optimistic after this weekend. The Yanks lost one game they should have won (Saturday), won one they should have lost (Sunday) and utterly dominated a team that they should have beat in a wraparound series.

In a similar vein, hopefully this weekend foreshadows a great summer ahead. The weather couldn't have been much nicer. I played fairly decent in my golf tournament even though my partner and I got beat in two out of our three matches, and despite not having spoken to Matt yet, I have reason to believe he returned home alive from Charleston.

Today might be a little slow around here as we attempt to work through the mental cobwebs that have built up from not writing at all for three days, so in the meantime, I'll leave you with this phenomenal feel-good Slick Rick jam and "bring that lovin' feeling back to rap".

2008 vs. 2009: It's a WAR

Last night, the always brilliant Beyond the Boxscore, in light of the announcement of the Comeback Player of the Year award, took a look at who (among the top 10 vote-getters) had the biggest swings in Wins Above Replacement. I'll refrain from saying "who deserved the award" because I think Comeback Player of the Year is one that should be somewhat subjective and context-heavy because players can "comeback" from a variety of things and that should probably be taken into consideration. That and no one really cares that much about who gets the award anyway.

Chris Carpenter won in the National League and looking at WAR backed that up along with the top four finishes in the voting.

However, the numbers did not match the voting in the American League. Aaron Hill was given the award, but he was actually had the 4th biggest comeback in WAR behind Juan Rivera, Victor Martinez and our own Jorge Posada who had the largest. However, Jorge finished 4th in the voting behind Martinez and Michael Cuddyer probably because he missed time to injury and was relatively productive in his time with the club.

It seems like this year, there have been a ton of Yankees who have improved on last year's campaign, not to mention the three marquee free agents and Nick Swisher who weren't on the team last year. Below, you can find two charts displaying the differences in WAR from 2008 to 2009. BtB measures the dip between the last good year they had and 2009 but I'm only looking at the last two years. (All data via FanGraphs)

First, the position players:

Some interesting stuff here...

• Pretty cosmic shift in run production there, 15.6 wins. The Yanks won 89 games last year and 103 this year. You do the math.
  
  
• I didn't use the more complicated method that BtB did, but those measurements show that Posada wasn't even the most improved player on the Yankees in relation to last year.
  
  
• Jeter made some major strides defensively but his OPS also ended up exactly 100 points higher than in 2008.
  
  
• Obviously, Teixeira represents a vast improvement over the 'stache, taking absolutely no one by surprise.
  
  
• Even with the great year Bobby Abreu is having out in L.A., he's only been worth 2.7 WAR. Still a great pick-up by the Angels for the money ($5M) but the Yanks have been better off with Swish, even though his defense isn't exactly sparkling either.
  
  
• Who would have guessed that Johnny Damon was more valuable in 2008? Hands, please. He's been better with the bat but his fielding has declined by almost 10 runs.
  
  
• If you extrapolate A-Rod's production to a full season he comes awfully close to replicating his 2008 value.

And the pitchers:

• How about the fact that this slice of the 2008 staff was actually worth more in 2008 than in 2009? Not a complete measurement but it's obvious which side of the ball had the most impact in taking the team from third in the AL East to first in all of baseball.
  
  
• I chose Sabathia to replace Mussina since they were the best pitcher in each year. I paired Burnett with Darrel Rasner, Sidney Ponson and Carl Pavano since those combined had about the same number of innings and they would have needed to find similar scrubs to fill in had Burnett not been acquired.
  
  
• Phil Hughes proves that point that if you can be a great reliever, you're more valuable than a bad starter, but I think we already knew that.
  
  
• Before looking, I thought Andy Pettitte would have been more valuable this year than last, but apparently not. I'm honestly not sure what's causing the variance there.
  
  
• Mo saved 39 games last year and blew only 1, while this year he converted 44 and blew 2. His W/L record last year was 6-5 and this year it was 3-3. Wins and saves are bad stats but we are talking about Wins Above Replacement here.
  
  
• Joba derived a good amount of value pitching out of the bullpen last year, which accounts for a lot of the difference.
  
• Our poor Wang got beaten pretty severely this year. He alone makes up for the difference between '08 and '09.

Friday Afternoon Link Party

It's Friday and I'm pressed for time, but here are a few links to explore before the preview for tonight's game goes up. You don't want to see how they were made:

Our pal Joe at RAB explores the tendency for people to criticize the effort baseball players seem to put forth, inspired by this post at the Yankee Universe.

Tim Marchman takes a pretty thorough look at how many hits Derek Jeter might end up with when it's all said and done. Craig Calcaterra reacts to the final two paragraphs of Marchman's article which implies that Jeter still has something left to prove and suggests he doesn't.

Big League Screw has a great piece on Alfredo Aceves that tracks his journey from Mexico to the Majors and declares him "The Most Interesting Man in the Bronx". Well worth the read.

"My feeling is you ought to be ashamed of yourself if you get physically tired of playing baseball because it shouldn't be that physically taxing" If this doesn't illustrate the difference between baseball and football, I fear nothing ever will.

There are a lot of ways to show how awesome the Yankees offense has been this year. Here is one. And here is another.

Be glad you didn't have to sit through "The worst hall of fame speech... ever".

The Yankees will be honoring those who lost their lives during the attacks of September 11th with a ceremony before the game tonight.

New Stadium Insider has the low down on the weather and how it might affect tonight's game.

Another Perk Of Home Field Advantage

One of the ancillary benefits of having the best record in either league is that the team gets to select which of the two schedules it plays its ALDS on. Both of the options have their final 4 games scheduled for October 9th, 11th, 12th & 14th, but the ALDS "A" schedule begins on October 7th, while "B" starts on the 8th. The upshot is that "A" allows for the participants to use only 3 starting pitchers on regular rest if they so choose.

The implications for the Yankees are pretty obvious. Their top three starters are pretty clear-cut: CC Sabathia and then, in whatever order, Andy Pettitte and A.J. Burnett. It's the guy who slots in for the fourth game that makes the decision a little more complicated.

Steve from the Yankee Universe says it depends on how Joba Chamberlain pitches down the stretch and who the Yankees are playing (almost certainly the Tigers). Since both teams will be operating on the same schedule, if the Yankees have a bigger advantage over the Tigers when comparing their top 4 starters as opposed to their top 3, Steve thinks that would be the optimal choice.

David Pinto of Baseball Musings suggests that the Yankees should opt for the extra day of rest, and as a result the 3 man rotation, almost always, unless the opposition has a very poor fourth starter.

The Tigers top four are Edwin Jackson (147 ERA+), Justin Verlander (139), Jarrod Washburn (124) and Rick Porcello (107). Although Washburn has been terrible since joining the Tigers (6.81 ERA in 6 starts), I'm guessing his postseason experience would bump him ahead of the rookie Porcello. Verlander will probably start game one as well, but that's beside the point.

Either way, they match up favorably against the Yankees' quartet, Sabathia (131), Pettitte (109), Burnett (107) and Joba (101).

Minor detail, however: the Tigers staff is going to be facing the best offense in all of baseball: 1st in runs scored, 1st in OBP and in 1st in SLG. Conversely, the Tigers offense is 10th, 10th and 9th in those categories, respectively. I'm not sure there is a scientific way to account for that, but it would seem to tip that equation on it's head completely.

Given the choice, I would probably opt for the early start and the extra day of rest. Given that the Yankees will be able to align their rotation however they choose when the season closes down, they might as well bank that extra day of rest. Regardless of how Joba pitches throughout September, he will still be a major question mark as a starting pitcher in the postseason.

And of course, since one team is going to be down 2-1 if Game 4 does indeed occur, they could just choose to throw their ace anyway.

First Half Projections - Offense

[The day game yesterday pushed these projections back a bit, but we wanted to take a look at the numbers at the half season mark. Data does not include yesterday's game.

We've done three things here: first we've taken statistics from the first half of the season and done a simple extrapolation for a full season. Below that, we've taken ZIPS (Updated) projections from the awesome FanGraphs right now, and on the bottom, for comparison's sake, we've included what the ZIPS were at the one-third mark of the season. ZIPS, specifically the half season update, are going to be the most reliable, as they take into account what each player has already done this year as well as historical performance to project what the end of season numbers will look like.

Here are the 10 most prominent Yankee hitters. For the extrapolation part, adjustments were made to both Jorge Posada and Alex Rodriguez to account for the time both lost to injury.

You can click on the tables for a larger view]

Since returning from the DL in late May, Posada's hasn't hit quite as well as he had before getting injured. Still, his numbers are great for a catcher, great for a thirty-seven year old, and arguably historic for a thirty-seven year old catcher. For all the gnashing of teeth over his contract and his abilities behind the plate, Jorge Posada is still as valuable as any catcher this side of Joe Mauer. ZIPS predicts his AVG and OBP will hold at their current levels, but expects the SLG to drop off a bit. It'll be interesting to see if the veteran catcher can maintain his current levels of production as the season wears on him.

Despite his recent power outage and RBI drought, Teix is on pace to drive in well over 100 runs and score around 100 as well. ZIPS has picked up on his recent struggles and all of three of his slash stats, HR and RBI projections have declined since the third mark, but his doubles and walks are up.

All three of Cano's predictors are very similar. His ZIPS have hardly changed, while his extrapolations aren't too far away in any category. His career slash stats are .302/.335/.470, which align almost perfectly as well. He might be streaky in the short term, but over time Cano is freakishly consistent.

This has been an interesting season for Alex Rodriguez. Batting slumps have left him with an extremely low AVG by his standards. ZIPS still sees him bouncing back, but his slumps between games 54 and 81 have caused ZIPS to drop their end of season number by 13 points. What's really interesting though is A-Rod's OBP. Despite the low AVG, his current OBP is the fifth highest of his career, and 22 points above his career mark. His walk rate is 5% greater than his previous career high, and his K rate is his career best by 1.7%. His low AVG has taken a toll on his SLG, as both the extrapolation and ZIPS have him well below his career mark of .577. Yet his HR% of 6.2% is a tick above his career average of 6.1%, meaning that his HRs as a percentage of his total hits are way up. As a result his Isolated Power of .279 is slightly above his career mark of .272. His counting stats for both ZIPS and the extrapolation may be a bit high if the Yanks keeping resting him as they say they will.

Like Cano, Jeter's current batting line (.316/.390./.460) is a mirror image of his career line (.316/.387/.458). He already has 6 more stolen bases than he did all of last year, with three fewer caught stealing. Sitting at 99 hits, he's got a good chance for 200 and even though he's hitting leadoff this year, both ZIPS projections have him exceeding his RBI total from last year (69).

ZIPS doesn't buy Brett Gardner's recent improvements at the plate. This is one spot where I'm going to side with the extrapolations over the projections. I think Gardner's recent offensive successes are indicative of his finally figuring out the league. He was a solid on-base guy throughout his minor league career, and it looks like he's learning how to get on in the majors as well. As his OBP improves, so too should his stolen bases.

The Melk Man had a terrible June, hitting only .225/.312/.375 and hasn't yet recovered in July (3H and 1BB in 16PA). His BABIP dropped significantly, from .356 in May to .242 in June, which begins to account for his struggles. With him and Gardner both moving towards the mean, they should be seeing closer to equal playing time this month.

Johnny Damon's career slugging percentage sits is .438, but this year it's .530. ZIPS makes an attempt to reconcile those two, without taking into consideration that the New Yankee Stadium has helped Damon as much as anyone this year. Twelve of his sixteen homers have come in the Bronx and every single one has gone to right field. Last year, 10 of his 17 jacks came on the road.

After a torrid April, Swish had a terrible May and an average June. Average those out and he's pretty close to his career line of .243/.355/.454. All three lines project 28 HRs. His 162 game average? 28. But 11 of his 14 have come on the road, so perhaps he is due to take advantage of the short porch.

Due to interleague play, Matsui's extrapolation on his counting stats are a little bit low. Those aren't great numbers for a DH, but if he can notch 25 homers and slug over .500 that's pretty respectable. It promises to be Matsui's final year in Pinstripes, so hopefully he can end on a good note.

First Third Projections - Hitting

[With the completion of Game 54 on Thursday, the regular season is exactly one third over. The sample sizes are getting larger by the day, and it's now getting to the point where it's not exactly too early to be making any assessments.

We can't draw any firm conclusions, but now seems as good a point as any to take a look at some projections. We've done two things here: first we've taken statistics from the first third of the season and done a simple extrapolation for a full season. Below that, we've taken ZIPS (Updated) projections from the awesome FanGraphs. This is easily the better predictor of the two, as it takes into account what each player has already done this year as well as historical performance to project what the end of season numbers will look like.

Here are the 10 most prominent Yankee hitters. For the extrapolation part, adjustments were made to both Jorge Posada and Alex Rodriguez to account for the time both lost to injury. Jay will be back later with pitchers.]

(Click on any chart for a larger view)

Following off-season shoulder surgery, Jorge Posada was perhaps the biggest concern entering the season. His shoulder has been just fine; it was his hamstring that put him on the shelf for a month. When healthy he's been better than can be expected, especially for a 37 year old catcher. ZIPS projects him to fall off from his current torrid pace, but the .921 OPS would be the 4th best of his career.

Teixeira had an awful, awful April followed by an unbelievable May. As such, he's leveled out, and both his extrapolation and ZIPS leave him just about where you'd expect him to be for a full season. ZIPS predicts the power numbers will drop off a bit.


Cano has rebounded nicely from a very poor 2008. Though he's dropped off a bit from his hot start, he still looks likely to finish in a good spot. His refusal to take a walk still dogs him though, as his OBP is slightly below league average despite being a .300 hitter. It is also well below his 2006-2007 numbers. If Cano doesn't improve his walk rate he will continue to be entirely reliant upon his hitting for his offensive value. As such, it'd be nicer to see him in the .320 - .330 range.


Those are good numbers for a 162 game season, nevermind from someone who missed the first month plus. ZIPS sees the AVG getting back up to a more A-Rod like level, and there's no reason to believe that it won't.


It's been a bit of a renaissance for the Captain this year as his line looks good. As it does for others, ZIPS sees his power dropping off from its current pace, but 16 HRs would still be his highest total since 2005. It's interesting to note that despite getting on base at a good clip as the leadoff hitter for a potent offense, Jeter is not a lock for 100 runs.



Hideki Matsui is the streakiest player I've ever seen. Already this season he's been through about two cycles of looking like crap followed by catching fire. ZIPS projects more of the latter the rest of the way and I hope it's right. This is almost certainly Matsui's last hurrah in pinstripes and he deserves to go out on a high note.


Johnny Damon is in a contract year in he's playing like it. He's on pace for 33 HRs, though ZIPS projects a more realistic 23, one short of his career high set in 2006. The .851 OPS predicted by ZIPS would be the 4th highest of Damon's career and his best since 2004. If he can finish out that way I'd gladly give him one year or one plus an option.


Swish hit like Babe Ruth in April and like Ruth Bader Ginsburg in May. He's getting hot again of late. Both the extrapolation and ZIPS predict just about what you'd expect from Swish: slightly below average AVG, great OBP, and good power. I'll gladly take that.


I may not be 100% sold on Melky still, but after his disastrous 2008 I can't be anything but thrilled with his 2009 thus far. Whether it's for real remains to be seen, but he's rebounded nicely and has shown a flair for the dramatic with all his late inning heroics. ZIPS sees him coming back to earth a bit by season's end, but his projected AVG, SLG, and OPS would all be career highs. I'm a little surprised to see his projected OBP that low, but Melky has been taking fewer walks as this season has progressed. Like his buddy Cano, Melky would benefit greatly from more plate discipline. I'd love to see his OBP hold at its current .360 clip, the same mark he posted in 2006.

After a disastrous start that saw him lose the CF job to Melky, Gardner has come on strong of late. He has absolutely zero power, so in order for him to offer any real offensive value he's going to have to get on base at better than the league average rate that ZIPS projects, thereby allowing him to take full advantage of his speed. The problem is that the good OBP skills Gardner displayed in the minors haven't quite translated to MLB. When you're a rookie with no pop pitchers will challenge you, making it much harder to draw a free pass. That said, given his current role on the team, Gardner looks to be doing his job adequately.