Game 71: Baby Snakes

The average age of the Arizona Diamondbacks' position players is 26.9. That's a half of a year less than the next two closest teams, the Pirates and the Marlins and two years younger than the league average. With a mean age of 30.3, the typical Yankees position player would have been out of high school before the average D-Back batter got their driver's license (in New York anyway).

The oldest regular stick on Arizona is first baseman Adam LaRoche, who is 30. In addition to the two notable younger brothers of well-known MLB players, Stephen Drew and Justin Upton, Mark Reynolds, Kelly Johnson, Chris Young, and Chris Synder are all regular players in their twenties. Geraldo Parra, who has stepped in to replace the recently-traded Connor Jackson, is just 23 years old as well and playing in his second year in the Bigs.

In nature, baby snakes typically hatch of out eggs, but rattlesnakes (including Diamondbacks) happen to give birth to live young - an apt metaphor for Arizona's offense. Despite their relative youth (or perhaps because of it) they've scored the third most runs in the National League, have hit the most homers, are second in slugging percentage and third in OPS.

Even with an offense that's plenty potent, the Diamondbacks still sit a staggering nine games back in the NL West. How is that possible? Partially because their offense numbers are inflated by their ballpark but mostly because of their horrible pitching staff.

Ian Kennedy, who landed in the desert by way of the trade that Curtis Granderson to the Yankees, has been their best starting pitcher so far, sporting an ERA of 3.60 after 15 starts. Brandon Webb injured his shoulder at the beginning of last year and hasn't been back since, but he can only be blamed for so much of the problem. Tonight's starter, Dan Haren, along with last night's, Rodrigo Lopez, and Edwin Jackson (who was also part of the Granderson deal) have ERA's above 4.50, but it really all comes down to the bullpen.

Their "closer", Chad Qualls, who recently lost his job to Aaron Heilman, is currently sporting an 8.87 ERA after blowing four saves in 16 chances and taking three additional losses beyond that. Don't worry, he's not injured, he just sucks. Of the 14 pitchers to throw in relief for them this year, only two have a positive ERA+: Heilman and Esmerling Vasquez. It's tough to win when you can't hold a lead.

So the Yankees failed on two fronts against Rodrigo Lopez last night, 1) not getting runs off of him and 2) not getting to the bullpen soon enough. Lopez had just 87 pitches heading into the 8th inning, and completed the frame on his 103rd. By the time a D-Backs' reliever got the ball, they had a seven run lead and need only to record three outs. I can understand bats going cold, but patience at the plate shouldn't. Perhaps they were just tired after having flown to Arizona and not gotten a day off and mentally checked out when A.J. Burnett got whacked around like a pinata. Perhaps they got a little more rest last night and are now ready to take care of business.

When they face Dan Haren at 9:40 this evening, the Bombers are going to have to either score some runs off of him, or work up his pitch count and get him out of the game early. And try to limit the baby snakes to less than 10 runs. That would also help.

(Baby sna-yay-kes),
Late at night is when they come out,
(Baby sna-yay-kes),
Sure you know what I'm talkin' about.

[Song notes: Baby Snakes is also the name of a really fucking weird clay-mation movie that Zappa made. Since the game doesn't start until 9:40, here are three parts of it. It's not the full 166 minute director's cut, but I don't think anyone would want to watch that anyway.]

Remembering The Weekend

Welcome back, Fackers. In a perfect world, the time away from work afforded by holiday weekends would give you some time to catch your breath and recharge your batteries. However, if you really try to make the most of the relatively brief hiatus and shoehorn a bunch of things in, you typically end up tired and foggy at your desk on the morning you come back, finding ways to avoid beginning the arduous process of digging through emails sent by assholes who actually got things accomplished over the weekend and trying to remember where you left off on Friday (or possibly Thursday if that's when you mentally checked out). That's probably why you're reading this post, in fact.

In general, I find that the more time I spend away from work, the less I want to go back to it. In that case, I suppose that a taste of honey is worse than none at all. Maybe that's just because I've never had a job that I actually liked, but how many people can honestly say they do?

/hacky talk radio segue

Well, the Yankees certainly embraced their occupation this weekend as they gave the Indians a signature Bronx beatdown!!1/!11!

Our song choice for the four games was somewhat presumptuous but the Bombers did not disappoint, taking three games out of four. Of course, the one that they lost was in spectacular fashion due to a bullpen meltdown which begun with an ineffective and ultimately injured David Robertson, was exacerbated by Joe Girardi matching up with a four run lead and completed by Joba Chamberlain, who faced six batters and got only one of them out. The Yanks had a 97% chance of winning the game after the completion of the fifth inning on Saturday but allowed the Indians - who hadn't scored 10 runs in a game all year - to plate seven in the top of the seventh and win by a score of 13-11.

There was a very scary moment earlier in that game, as Alex Rodriguez lined a pitch right off the side of the head of Cleveland's starting pitcher, David Huff. The 25 year old left hander was wheeled off on a stretcher after lying motionless on the ground for several minutes but gave raised his hand to signify that he was okay while being lifted and luckily, a CT scan didn't show any serious damage. When it happened A-Rod appeared to be legitimately torn up over it as he put his hands on his head and took a knee in the infield while the medical staff tended to Huff.

After the game, Rodriguez tried unsuccessfully to make it to the hospital where Huff had been taken only to find out that he was back at the Stadium, but did finally get in touch with him. Huff called the effort "one class act", something that you don't typically hear directed towards A-Rod from a low profile player on another team.

In other comparatively minor injury news, David Robertson suffered some back issues and had to be removed from Saturday's game and Derek Jeter left yesterday's contest after getting hit in the back of the thigh with a pitch. Both of those are thought to be minor issues and each player should be available tonight. Perhaps Jeter will DH just to be safe.

Now that we've got the bad out of the way, the most encouraging sign of the weekend (despite the fact that the Indians' pitching is one of the worst staffs in the league) was the resurgence of the offense. The Yanks plated 37 runs in the four game set and scored more in every single one of the games than they had in any contest since they hung eleven on Boston two weeks ago in Fenway. They tallied 55 hits and hit two grand slams, one by Robinson Cano on Sunday and one by A-Rod (the 20th of his career) after the Indians threw an intentional ball four to Mark Teixeira yesterday. A-Rod is now 5-5 when Teix is given a intentional free pass in front of him.

The offensive resurgence coincided with the return of Curtis Granderson but his four hits (three doubles) only went so far. Derek Jeter had a solid weekend, collecting nine hits and scoring five runs. Cano was the best of the bunch, picking up ten hits (two homers) while extending his hitting streak to 14 games and driving in ten runs.

With the exception of Saturday's poor showing by CC Sabathia and the bullpen, the Yanks' pitching was solid in the balance of the series, allowing just four runs over the other 27 innings. Phil Hughes tossed seven frames of two run ball on Friday night, A.J. Burnett gave up three (only one earned) in his eight innings on Sunday and Andy Pettitte improved upon his career best start to the season with seven innings of one run ball yesterday. Having throw only 90 pitches and given up just four baserunners to that point, Pettitte wanted to go deeper into the game, but the offense batted around and plated six runs during the seventh inning. The 45 minute wait was too much for Andy and he took the easy win, leaving a little bit in the tank.

Perhaps the most memorable moment of the weekend (from my recollection, anyway) came from Mariano Rivera. In the process of getting the final out of Sunday's game, Mo dodged a broken bat from Luis Valbuena and fielded the soft grounder that arrived considerably after the lumber in enough to to easily convert the out at first base. The ultra slow motion replays make it look like something out of The Matrix.

Rivera jumped over the bat but kept his glove down and reached for the ball, nearly snagging it in mid-air, but still knocking it down in the process. It happened incredibly quickly in real time, but the the super slow replay revealed that every motion that Mariano made was smooth and purposeful, completely unfazed by the fact a sharp, heavy object was flying at his shins.

They say the greatest athletes can process things so quickly that time seems to go by slower in their minds. Watching that replay affirms what Matt and countless others have said about Rivera: he's more than just a great pitcher.

=====

Of course, part of the reason that the Yankees looked so good over the weekend was because they were playing the hapless Indians, but the Yanks performed like the team that started the season 21-8, not the one that went 5-10 in the fifteen games following that.

It's foolish to keep taking the temperature of the team and attempt to project it out onto the rest of the season, but it's hard not to be optimistic after this weekend. The Yanks lost one game they should have won (Saturday), won one they should have lost (Sunday) and utterly dominated a team that they should have beat in a wraparound series.

In a similar vein, hopefully this weekend foreshadows a great summer ahead. The weather couldn't have been much nicer. I played fairly decent in my golf tournament even though my partner and I got beat in two out of our three matches, and despite not having spoken to Matt yet, I have reason to believe he returned home alive from Charleston.

Today might be a little slow around here as we attempt to work through the mental cobwebs that have built up from not writing at all for three days, so in the meantime, I'll leave you with this phenomenal feel-good Slick Rick jam and "bring that lovin' feeling back to rap".

Our Skewed View

Here is a great breakdown by Slate of how and why our perceptions of pitching are skewed by the positioning of the cameras which capture most of the action (h/t Tommy Bennett).

TBS only operates with the off-center views that are responsible for the deceiving angles, but Fox says they will have some dead center cameras for later rounds. The one question I have after is watching this is whether the dead center angle is deceptive in regards to pitch height. And my first inclination would be "yes", but it's probably still far better than not being able to define the sides of the plate from your couch.

First Half Projections - Pitching

[The day game yesterday pushed these projections back a bit, but we wanted to take a look at the numbers at the half season mark. Data does not include yesterday's game.

We've done three things here: first we've taken statistics from the first half of the season and done a simple extrapolation for a full season. Below that, we've taken ZIPS (Updated) projections from the awesome FanGraphs right now, and on the bottom, for comparison's sake, we've included what the ZIPS were at the one-third mark of the season. ZIPS, specifically the half season update, are going to be the most reliable, as they take into account what each player has already done this year as well as historical performance to project what the end of season numbers will look like.

Here are the four constant members of the starting rotation along with the four bullpen guys who have sufficient sample sizes for analysis.

You can click on the tables for a larger view.]


CC Sabathia isn't having one of his best years, but it's still pretty damn good. In 2007 and 2008, he had K/BB ratios of 5.65 and 4.35, while this year he is only at 2.53. His strikeouts are down and his walks are up, but his WHIP is in line with his previous two seasons. Averaging just over 6 2/3 innings with a 3.85 ERA (ZIPS thinks it will be lower) on a potent offensive team should net you more than 14 wins in a full season, and he could easily go on a tear where he takes down 4 or 5 decisions in a row.

A.J. Burnett's last four starts have dragged his ERA down from 4.89 to 3.83. He's won 5 of his last seven starts and has proven to be the front end starter the Yankees had hoped they were signing this offseason. But he, like Sabathia has a low K/BB ratio. He hasn't gone as deep into games as CC, so his innings projections are lower.

This year Andy Pettitte is walking more batters than any other year of his career, which explains his tiny K/BB. He's publicly said that he is afraid to make a mistake at the New Stadium for fear that it might get taken deep. This is probably because 12 of the 14 home runs he's allowed have come at home. Yesterday was the first start of the second half and a 6 inning outing with 6 earned runs (including two homers) probably isn't the best way to head into the home stretch.

Oh, Joba. Much has been said about the young man lately, including the fact that in 28 career starts, he's factored into the decision only 10 times. Part of it certainly has to do with flukey run distributions in the games he's started, but he's also been unable to consistenly go deep into games. He's gone over 6 innings only 3 times in 16 starts this year and those accounted for 3 of his four wins.

The way Phil Hughes' numbers end up this year will have everything to do with the way he is used. Since transitioning to the bullpen, he's watched his ERA drop from 5.30 to 4.20, and he hasn't given up a run in his last 7 outings. It's great that he's adapted to the role successfully, but Girardi hasn't utilized the fact that Hughes is not your typical bullpen guy and rarely pitches him more than just an inning.

Mo's ERA is inflated by a rough couple of outings, but he has a microscopic WHIP and cartoonish K and BB numbers. He's got 21 saves so far, on pace for 42 which would be his highest total since 2005. Girardi has used him for more than one inning six times, which may not be the greatest thing for a 39 year old coming off of a shoulder procedure.

Phil Coke has emerged as valuable reliever who Joe Girardi is starting to trust in the last innings of close games. He's given up just one earned run in 17 outings dating back to June 4th and his ERA has dropped from 4.50 to 2.97. His ZIPS numbers may be a bit skewed as it still projects him to make seven starts. That ain't happening.


Our boy Alf has been one of the more pleasant surprises on the team this year. He's been used in close and late situations as well as longer appearances like the time CC had to leave the mound in in the second inning against the Marlins. He doesn't have blazing stuff, but his great control gives him the best K/BB ratio on the team, this side of Mo. His ZIPS has him making ten starts before the season's out, and with the recent injury to CMW, that may happen.

Jerry Reese Does Not Fear Wounded Ducks

On the heels of a very poor performance in the playoffs against the Eagles, the Daily News says that the Giants are close to signing Eli Manning to an massive extension:

Based on interviews with several agents and personnel people, Eli Manning appears to be in line for a seven or eight-year contract worth $110-$120M with $40M in guarantees. That would make the 28-year-old the eighth quarterback to top the $100M barrier, and would put him near the top with Philadelphia's Donovan McNabb (12 years, $115M), Cincinnati's Carson Palmer (nine years, $118.75M), and former Atlanta quarterback Michael Vick (10 years, $130M).

Brett Favre (10/$100M) and Big Ben (8/$102M) have inked deals at that level, while big brother Peyton signed a 7 year deal worth $98M in 2004, keeping him just on the outside that barrier, and Tom Brady took a sweetheart deal to stay with New England for six and $60M.

Still, that upper tier of the $100M QB Club looks a whole lot more like the group of MLB pitchers who have eclipsed that barrier than you'd like it to. Palmer and Vick especially have not lived up to their contracts, while McNabb has probably played to his $9.6M AAV overall, but has not won a Super Bowl and has had some terrible lows in Philly. Simarly, Mike Hampton, Kevin Brown, and Barry Zito all woefully under preformed their deals. This is excluding Johan Santana who is off to a good start, but still has six years left, and of course Sabathia has yet to earn a dollar of his mega deal.

Not everyone is a fan of Eli's. Before the Super Bowl victory last year, there was certainly a disproportionate amount of hatred, blame and venom spewed in his direction. If Asante Samuel came up with that near-interception on the final drive of the Super Bowl, that might still be the case. But because of David Tyree and the defensive line, people like Max Kellerman exault his clutchiferousness, and heap him with inordinate praise.

His current deal expires next year and I can understand the reasons the Giants have for locking him up. But what other team is willing to make a play for Manning in that financial stratosphere? There are plenty of teams with a need at QB (Lions, Vikings, 49ers, Bears, Bucs, Chiefs, Sehawks, and possibly the Jets and Rams), but what are they going to pay for him? No free agent QB has ever got $100M from a new team.

Since Eli is experienced in the Giants' system and has established himself in New York, maybe he is worth that much to the organization. He's shown steady improvement over his five years in the Meadowlands, with both increasing completion percentages and QB Ratings. Last year's playoff run was one of the most inspiring storylines I've watched unfold in my years as a sports fan. This year, he had 21 TDs to only 10 picks.

But you only really have to pay him more than he is worth to other teams. Right?

It's just an oddly timed decision. Maybe the organization wants to show some solidarity towards the face of the franchise in the aftermath of a tough loss. Is Eli really going to hold out or walk away from the Giants though? He has shown he was capable of exacting some pretty strong leverage with his demand to be traded from the Chargers when he was drafted. I guess he has a pretty damn good agent...