Trying to make sense of Matt
Holliday's home/road splits yesterday got me thinking about next
offseason already. After this year, the Yankees are going to be in the market for some outfielders. The contracts for Xavier Nady, Johnny Damon, and
Hideki Matsui will all be expiring, leaving Nick Swisher, Brett Gardner,
Melky Cabrera and possibly Austin Jackson if he makes some serious strides through the minors.
Those remaining all represent some pretty serious question marks. As a Yankee fan, I'd like to think that Swisher is due for a bounce back since his stats
took a serious dip last year in what is ostensibly his prime (age 27) and had a
BABIP of .249. Brett Gardner may be off to a nice start this Spring, but let's not forget that in 127 Major League
AB's last year he had a line of .228/.283/.299, good for a 53 OPS+. In a year when
Melky was supposed to step forward, he fell back significantly. Austin Jackson is still only a prospect, so planning around him being
MLB-ready to start the 2010 season is quite foolhardy.
Back in December, Tim at
MLBTR compiled a list of the free agents to be in 2010. I whittled it down to the most intriguing options, in my opinion. (The
Scarlet B represents a
Boras client)
Centerfield Options
Rick Ankiel (30) - B
Coco Crisp (30) - $8MM club option with a $500K buyout
Unless the market turns around Crisp won't have his option picked up the the Royals, but I'd rather have
Count Chocula or
Tony the Tiger playing CF.
Ankiel represents the
Boras Dilemma. If he has a great year, his price tag will be astronomical, if he has an average one, you aren't going to be too excited about getting him anyway.
I think we have to hope that either Jackson or Gardner pan out for that spot. They are both solid defensively, which is tremendously important, but they will have to prove that they can hit Major League pitching before I get excited about either of them manning center field.
Now, the Corner Outfield Options.
- Carl Crawford (28) - $10MM club option with a $1.25MM buyout
- Jason Bay (31)
I really, really,
really like Carl Crawford, aside from
his production (or lack thereof due to a torn tendon in his hand) last year. Each year from 2004-07 he had 11 or more
HRs, from 46-59 stolen bases, and averaged almost 15 triples (!) per year. The Rays have a pretty well-stocked farm system and it wouldn't be all that shocking if they didn't spring for his $10M option. More on that
here (from before
Fack Youk's pre-Black & White borrowed picture policy).
I get the feeling the Red
Sox will sign Jason Bay before the season is over, but if they don't, I hope the Yankees take serious interest. He gets slept on because he spent most of his career with the Pirates, but look at
his numbers. He had a down year in '07, but the guy can hit.
More
Boras Dilemmas:
- Matt Holliday (30) B
- Xavier Nady (31) B
- Johnny Damon (36) B
Pass. Pass. Pass.
The
Old, the
Expensive and the
Defensively Incompetent:
- Bobby Abreu (36)
- Jermaine Dye (36) - $12MM mutual option with a $1MM buyout
- Vladimir Guerrero (34)
- Manny Ramirez (38) - $20MM player option B
- Magglio Ordonez (36) - $15MM club/vesting option with a $3MM buyout
Part of me would love to see one of these guys
DH'ing, but the other knows that with the Yanks aging rapidly, there will be guys who need a break from playing the field from time to time. Is it worth overpaying for a top of the line hitter when their presence is going to take Jorge out of his rhythm when he has to ride the pine when he's not manning the dish? Maybe not.