Game 31: Jackson

Hey Fans! Guess which storyline is going to be beaten into your head by a certain large craniumed play-by-play man over the next four games. Did you know that Yankees center fielder Curtis Granderson is currently on the DL? Did you know that Yankees number two hitter Nick Johnson is perpetually injured and will be out for several weeks? Of course you did.

But as the Yankees begin a four game series in Detroit, did you know that Tigers center fielder Austin Jackson is a former Yankee prospect and was the centerpiece of the trade that brought Granderson to New York? And did you further know that Tigers left fielder Johnny Damon was the Yankees number two hitter last year, and that he so desperately wanted to return to New York for a handsome salary?

And did you know that while Granderson and Johnson, both of whom slumped in their limited playing time thus far, languish on the DL, Jackson is hitting .371/.420/.508 and Damon is hitting .294/.409/.431? Well if you didn't know by now, you will by the time this series is over, because it's the single easiest storyline around which to frame this series.

But there's another storyline that will come into play, at least over the first two games, and it's far more important to the Yankees right now. Mother Nature and Father Time have conspired to leave the Yankee pitching staff in a bit of bind. Saturday's rain delay ended CC Sabathia's outing after just four and two thirds. Alfredo Aceves' sitff back and Joe Girardi's match ups forced the Yankees to run through five relievers to finish that contest. Elder statesman Andy Pettitte's stiff elbow leaves the pitching staff a man short. Romulo Sanchez did yeoman's work in his 3.2 IP of shutout relief last night, saving the rest of the pen, and thanks to today's roster move, the Yankees aren't short a long man tonight. But with Sergio Mitre spot starting tonight and limited to about 75 pitches, and Javier Vazquez, who has not yet completed the sixth inning this year, starting tomorrow, the Yankee bullpen may be further taxed over the next two games.

But hey, Austin Jackson has a magical .511 BABIP (despite a 28.0% K rate) and Johnny Damon, according to his agent at least, has magical DNA. So it's much easier to ignore more pressing issues and just declare Brian Cashman's off-season moves a bust a mere five weeks into the season. Because if 2009 taught us anything, it's that the way things are on May 10th, is exactly how they will be at season's end.

This will be Sergio Mitre's first start of 2010 and his first career appearance against the Tigers. Mitre has pitched well enough in limited relief/mop-up duty this year. In nine starts in 2009, he posted a 7.16 ERA and 1.75 WHIP over 44 IP. He'll was slated to oppose his former Florida Marlins teammate, Dontrelle Willis, but Willis is a late scratch with 102 degree fever. If the Tigers were the Royals, Willis would be pitching.

In Willis' stead, long reliever Brad Thomas will get the start. Alright, spot starts all around! Thomas is an Australian southpaw who, despite making his Major League debut just short of nine years ago, has logged only 40.1 IP in his career. Before surfacing with Detroit this season he hadn't pitched in the Majors since a three game cup of coffee with the Twins in 2004. In fact, he's only pitched one season in the states since then, spending 34 games at Seattle's AAA affiliate in 2007. His seven appearances this year have already set a new career high. This will mark the second time this year Thomas makes an emergency spot start for Willis. The results were not pretty the first time.

After a long off-season of negotiating, Johnny got his cash and Austin Jackson is playing hotter than a pepper sprout. As former Yankee products, I wish them both the best of luck over the course of the season, except of course when they're playing the Yankees. Depleted or not, Yankee pitching will spend the next four games looking to put their fire out.

We got married in a fever, hotter than a pepper sprout
We've been talking 'bout Jackson, ever since the fire went out
I'm going to Jackson, I'm gonna mess around
Yeah I'm going to Jackson, look out Jackson town

[Song Notes: Little known fact - Johnny Cash absolutely did not want to wear the shirt he's sporting in this performance. But, the previous night he had gone to dinner with some friends, and his buddy's new girlfriend, a bit of a low-talker, muttered something unintelligible. Trying to be polite, the Man in Black just nodded in agreement. Little did he know he'd agreed to wear a puffy shirt on national TV]

-Lineups-

Yankees:
Jorge Posada is behind the dish for the first time in a week. With a lefty on the mound, Marcus Thames is in the lineup, though after his misadventures in left field last night, he's mercifully the DH.

Derek Jeter SS
Nick Swisher RF
Mark Teixeira 1B
Alex Rodriguez 3B
Robinson Cano 2B
Jorge Posada C
Marcus Thames DH
Brett Gardner CF
Randy Winn LF

Tigers:

Austin Jackson CF
Johnny Damon DH
Magglio Ordonez RF
Miguel Cabrera 1B
Brennan Boesch LF
Brandon Inge 3B
Scott Sizemore 2B
Gerald Laird C
Adam Everett SS

Foggy Morning Links

Mornin' Fackers. Are you a little hazy from having burnt the "midnight oil" like Thor last night? Hopefully this small batch of heady links will rouse you from your herbally-induced malaise.

Curtis Granderson wrote about adapting to New York City living - off the field - over at Big League Stew. That's him at Target on the right. Any man who has ever shopped for bedding at a big box retailer has sported the same look on their face.

The Wezen-Ball Tater Trot Tracker has gone mainstream. It got linked by the excellent non-sports blog The Awl, has its own website and is now selling t-shirts whereby you can espouse your personal home run trot philosophy. I'm more of a "swing hard, run hard" kind of a guy.

Mike Fast at the Hardball Times looked at the difference in velocity between pitchers throwing from the windup and the stretch and found that there almost isn't one. Tango thinks that although the velocity might be comparable, pitching from the stretch could be an more inherently stressful motion. Over the winter, we wondered if Javy Vazquez might lose a little something from the stretch since he pitches poorly with runners on base. When I get some time, I will try to look at the data and see if I can find anything of interest.

Jonah Keri made his second appearance on the BS Report with Bill Simmons. I haven't listened to it yet, but it's going to be hard to top the first one wherein he singlehandedly converted Simmons to sabermetrics (only a slight exaggeration).

More podcasting: a new version of FanGraphs audio is up.

"Pardon my language, but f**k the Yankees."

Unlike every member of the Boston media, Patrick Sullivan took a look at the state of the Red Sox from a rational perspective. It's not all doom and gloom, but it ain't exactly cupcakes and ponies, either. Whether or not their first 14 games are indicative of how good they are or not, they've dug themselves a significant hole.

Further proof that Johnny Damon is a 6 year old boy in a 36 year old man's body: he's growing a mohawk.

Craig Calcaterra, who was at the forefront of the "NL Pitcher tests positive for PEDs" fracus yesterday notes that 10 of the last 16 PED suspensions have been handed down to pitchers and wonders while it's still the sluggers who are the primary targets of public shame.

You probably saw this yesterday somewhere else, but it's still worth noting that CC Sabathia stopped by his hometown and attended a Little League game at a field he helped renovate.

The first batch of UZR ratings are in. Proceed with small sample size freak outs... ZOMG Johnny Damon is now the greatest left fielder EVAR!

It might be a little slow around here today, but check back this later afternoon. If nothing else, we'll have the game preview for you this evening.

Not So Breaking News: Damon To Tigers

Hello Fackers. We interrupt this regularly scheduled weekend to bring you a breaking news bulletin. Johnny Damon, he of the magical DNA and absurd contract demands, has finally signed. Our long national nightmare is over.

Out of any alternate options, Damon has reportedly signed with the Tigers for one year, $8M, with no deferred money. All things considered, Scott Boras' mysterious powers over Tigers' owner Mike Ilitch was the only saving grace for his client. The Tigers were bidding against themselves essentially, and Boras was still able to get his client more than he rightly could expect by this point.

Still, Damon's deal is a far cry from Boras' initial three year $39M demand to the Yankees, a far cry from the terms discussed prior to Nick Johnson signing, and not much more than the Yankees' final offer of one year $6M. In the end, Damon was left with no other option but to ink a deal with Detroit, a franchise whose offseason began by dumping important cogs in Curtis Granderson, Edwin Jackson, and Placido Polanco, but concluded with signing a closer to a two year $14M deal and paying a 36 year old left fielder more than anyone else was willing.

We wish Damon all the best in Detroit, and Yankee fans will fondly remember his contributions over the past four seasons. But, as our friend Jason likes to remind us, and as Johnny Damon has illustrated for the second time in his career, it's about the money, stupid.

Have Damon And Boras Lost Their Collective Mind?

Good morning Fackers. I know Johnny Damon's endless search for a contract is well beyond played out at this point, but I'd like to take a moment to call attention to the lunacy of the recent and rather pathetic attempts at public relations and spin that Scott Boras is attempting to execute on behalf of his client. They fly in the face of all rational thought. I'm not sure if these two are crazy like foxes or just plain crazy, but I'm fairly certain it's the latter.

Nearly two weeks ago, I questioned whether the recent misplays of Scott Boras are indicative of the super agent losing his touch. Monday, Tim Dierkes at MLBTR questioned whether Boras has failed unsigned clients Johnny Damon, Jarrod Washburn, and Felipe Lopez this off-season.

Boras has been reduced to an embarrassingly transparent PR blitz in Detroit, one of a few remaining potential landing places for his client. Boras has had success in the past duping Detroit into overpaying for convincing Detroit to sign his clients, so he's really turning on the charm here. He's largely bypassing general manager Dave Dombrowski and appealing directly to owner Mike Ilitch.

In an advertisement interview with the Detroit Free Press yesterday, Boras stated "Johnny came to me about Detroit. He told me, 'If I can't play for the Yankees I want you to let the Tigers know I want to play for them. I can make that team a winner.' " He further explained that Damon has long been a fan of the Detroit Red Wings, who incidentally are owned by none other than Mike Ilitch. If that weren't enough, Boras went on XM yesterday afternoon to hammer his talking points further; Jason tweeted most of the details.

Meanwhile, Damon appears to be working an angle with his other remaining suitor, the Braves, telling the Atlanta Journal-Constitution that the Braves "are definitely at the top of my list". Is that the top of the list next to the Tigers, above the Tigers, or just below the Tigers?

Yet according to Boras, Damon has passsed on "four or five" offers since it became apparent that he wasn't re-signing with the Yankees. If this is true, it's apparently because he's holding out for a two year deal.

To which I say: are you out of your minds?!?! Look, I understand that Damon and Boras are trying to get the best deal possible. I understand that Damon will likely be forced to sign a contract that pays him less than what he'll be worth next year. I understand that there's pride involved here, and that Damon's assets were frozen for a time last year as the result of some bad investments, so maybe he does need the extra money he's holding out for.

But at some point these two have to wake up and smell the coffee. As much as they try, they cannot create the market they want for Damon's services. Spring Training starts in a week and Damon's suitors are limited. The Reds apparently have bowed out, and aside from the two teams listed above, the Rays are the only other possible landing spot. They're trying to outwit GMs who aren't likely to be outwitted. We're not talking about the types of guys who would hand a job to Mike Jacobs.

Damon should just take his best offer and sign. He's already cost himself millions by refusing the Yankees' offers. There's no way he's getting a two year deal now, and given how badly his market crashed this off-season, he's probably better off signing a one year deal and having another go at it next year anyway. Boras can't seem to handle more than one client at a time this off-season, so the sooner Damon signs, the sooner Boras might be able to salvage what little interest is left in Jarrod Washburn before he decides to retire, and the sooner we'll be freed from the siege of daily Damon updates.

18 Days Until Spring Training: Johnny Damon

Far too many words have been spilled over the saga of Johnny Damon this offseason, so I'm going to keep this very short.

Johnny Damon is a baseball player. He used to play baseball for the New York Yankees. He once stole two bases in one fell swoop during a World Series game.

Thanks partially to his steep initial contract demands and partially to a conflict of interest on his agent's part, he won't be playing for the Yankees anymore and remains a free agent. He recently made a very stupid comment in regards to Derek Jeter's contract situation that is going to make Yankees fans miss him even less when he's gone:

“I hope he isn't offered a 45 percent pay cut.”

He won't be, Johnny. Because there will be a significantly greater demand for his services. Because he's not a corner outfielder with declining range and a legendarily weak arm in a market flooded with low cost options. Thanks for the memories.

The end.

Lupica Is At It Again...

And by "it", I mean being a sniveling malcontent and finding things to criticize about the Yankees, lest they forget that they play in New York, where the media is notoriously tough on it's teams - mainly because of smarmy, self-righteous whiners like Lupica. To wit:

But for now the story, and the Yankees are sticking to it, is that they've got a by-God budget. That they couldn't afford what they say Damon wanted. Or what they thought he wanted. Or what they were afraid Damon's agent, Scott Boras, might try to weasel out of them, because nobody can out-weasel Boras.

Really? Johnny Damon turns out to be the one guy the Yankees can't afford? It would be like finding the one bar girl Tiger Woods didn't want to take home with him.

Topical! But something tells me that if Tiger were in rehab for drugs or alcohol, Lupica wouldn't be a cracking joke about the line he didn't want to snort of the gin and tonic he didn't want to chug.

For now, though, [the Yankees] desperately want Damon's departure to be somebody else's fault. Damon's. Boras'. Anybody but theirs. At the same time, Boras is out there selling his own version of things, door to door if he has to, the same way he peddled his own self-serving version on Carlos Beltran's knee surgery.

I really don't think the Yankees care whose fault it is that Damon isn't coming back. They didn't fire him. They didn't trade or release him. His contract expired and he became a free agent. This would be like trying assign blame for my departure from college because I didn't go back to Bentley for grad school.

But does anybody believe that Johnny Damon, who helped beat the Yankees in 2004 when he was with the Red Sox and played such a spectacular World Series for the Yankees five years later against the Phillies, has to go because of money? Or because Boras made Brian Cashman mad?

Yes, how could the Yankees let Damon go when he made one play against them five years ago, and then another one for them last year? How stupid can the Yankees be, not giving Damon all the money he wants because he played well in two World Series five years apart?!?1

Cashman might be a little perturbed by this situation, but it's not like he did something irrational because he was angry at Scott Boras. He was keenly aware that the Yankees had the upper hand in the situation and Boras (and to a lesser extend, Damon) refused to give in. Now those two are free to roam the open market and find a one year deal like the one Bobby Abreu had to settle for last year. Sometimes when you play hard to get, you don't get got.

Cashman 1, Boras 0, Lupica -10.

[Update: TYU has a much more thorough takedown of the piece and Craig from CTB has a much more efficient one. But guess who couldn't agree more with Lupica!]

Some Advice For Scott Boras

This has been brought up elsewhere on the interwebs, but I wanted to touch upon it a bit more here. Has uber agent Scott Boras lost a little bit off his fastball?

Two years ago he badly, badly botched the A-Rod opt out situation, both from a public relations standpoint and in grossly overestimating the market for his client. Had A-Rod not come crawling back to the Yankees on his own and had Hank Steinbrenner not been in a historically giving mood, A-Rod might have found himself without a suitor capable of matching the deal from which he opted out. Given the hard budgetary line Hal has drawn in the sand this off-season, consider how differently the A-Rod situation might have played out had Hal been calling all the shots two years ago.

That spring, Boras client Pedro Alvarez was the second pick in the draft. Under Boras' guidance, Alvarez did not sign a contract prior to the August 15th signing deadline. Not only did this lead to the MLBPA filing a grievance against the Pirates and Alvarez being temporarily placed on the restricted list, but it delayed the start of Alvarez' career and created bad blood between him and his ballclub before he even put on a uniform.

Last off season, he foolishly steered Jason Varitek away from accepting arbitration from the Red Sox, only to find that there wasn't much of a free agent market for the declining backstop. Varitek reupped with the Sox for $5M, while accepting arbitration would have guaranteed him a raise on the $9M he made in 2008. That deal did lead to Varitek having a $3M option for the upcoming season, but the $8M total over 2009-10 is less than what he would have earned in 2009 had he accepted arbitration.

This year, Boras gambled with Matt Holliday and was lucky enough to get the Cardinals to outbid themselves by several million dollars. As we all know by now though, Boras wasn't quite so lucky with Johnny Damon. Boras admittedly paid Damon no mind until the Holliday situation was resolved; completely overplayed his hand with the Yankees, Braves, and Giants; and is losing the public relations battle badly.

So here's a little unsolicited advice for Scott Boras. Take a good look at this picture:

Firstly Mr. Boras, if you don't remove your head from your ass in the immediate future, your client will be photographed golfing far more often since he'll no longer be playing baseball.

Secondly, take a good look at Johnny's swing. Perhaps you can market your client as a switch hitter, a dead low ball hitter from the right side, in a last ditch effort to squeeze a few extra million out of some poor, unsuspecting, mystery team.

(Photo from i-yankees)

Yesterday In Yankeedom

Good morning Fackers. Well yesterday was a relatively busy day in Yankee-related news, and at this time of year that qualifies as a big news day. So let's get to it:

• Ben Sheets signed with the Oakland A's yesterday. The Yankees were linked to Sheets early in the off season, but that went out the window with the Javier Vazquez trade. Of greater pertinence is that Johnny Damon was rumored to be the A's back up plan in the event they were unable to land Sheets. Setting aside the obvious question as to how signing an outfielder could be a viable back up plan for failing to land a starting pitcher, it would appear that Damon has one fewer potential suitor. Except maybe the A's are still interested. Or maybe they're not. I have no idea anymore. I wish Damon would just sign somewhere and/or Spring Training would start.

• Xavier Nady signed with Cubs. Like Sheets, the Yankees were in on Nady earlier in the off season, before deeming his price to be too high. Interestingly enough, apparently the Yankees' price for Nady was higher than the Cubs price. Nady signed for $3.3M with $2M in incentives. According to Joel Sherman though, Boras' last proposal to the Yankees was for $5M. No word as to whether that was $5M guaranteed or total, but if it was the former it doesn't bode well for the increasingly icy relationship between Boras and Cashman.
  
  It'll be interesting to see how Nady fares returning from a second Tommy John surgery. By inking a deal with an NL club he has no DH safety net in the event his arm can't handle the rigors of playing the field. With Nady now off the market, there is one fewer suitor for the other right handed outfielders on the market, all of whom have some level of appeal to the Yankees.

• The Yankees made a deal of their own yesterday, trading minor league infielder Mitch Hilligoss to the Rangers for recently DFA'd outfielder Greg Golson. Hilligoss posted good numbers in his first two pro seasons, but is coming off back-to-back abysmal seasons at high A Tampa.
  
  Golson was a first round pick of the Phillies in 2004 and was traded to the Rangers for John Mayberry Jr following the 2008 season. He's 0 for 7 with 5 Ks in 7 Major League games over the last two years and has a .263/.308/.395 batting line in 2780 minor league PA, with 140 SB in 178 attempts (78.7%). But, the Yankees are lacking outfield depth at the upper levels of the minor leagues. If nothing else, he gives Scranton a center fielder for next year, which is important because they'd give up a lot of triples without one.
  
  For what it's worth, Frankie Piliere, who we noted yesterday is a former Rangers scout, tweets that Golson is "an interesting tools guy" and calls it a good deal for the Yankees. There's already speculation that Golson might be 2010's Freddy Guzman. And that may be true, but does it warrant the 40 man roster that Golson now occupies?

The acquisition of Golson leaves the Yankees with 39 players on their 40 man. Still room for you Johnny...

Is There Anything To The Cruz Rumor?

Good morning Fackers. The Great Left Field Debate rages on. The weekend brought another round of Johnny Damon rumors, they made an offer, no they didn't, they set a deadline, no they didn't, Cashman's pissed, Damon will have a team within the week, the A's are interested, and on and on and on.

Yesterday brought the news, courtesy of AOL Fanhouse's Frankie Piliere, that the Yankees "inquired on" Nelson Cruz of the Texas Rangers. Normally I'd consider this to be nothing, and it probably is. Just about anything passes for news this time of year. Teams inquire about players all the time; as we learned with the Nick Swisher rumors early this off-season, there's a big difference between actively shopping someone and listening to offers without hanging up the phone. It doesn't mean there's anything to it.

Perhaps the Cruz inquiry is Brian Cashman's response to Scott Boras' incessant claims of a "mystery team" being interested in Damon. And even if the Yankees did check on him, the chances of him being moved are slim. The Rangers are in the process of being sold. Nelson Cruz is a relatively young, relatively productive, highly cost controlled asset. Businesses in the process of being sold do not divest themselves of such assets.

That said, I have every confidence that Piliere's tweet is true. Before joining Fanhouse last year, Piliere was a scout in the employ of the Rangers. He likely has contacts and friends that remain in the Rangers organization, and I'm sure that's where he received his information on this one.

In the end this is likely much ado about nothing. I highly doubt the Yankees will acquire Cruz and don't think they should. But given the source, I'm sure they did inquire about him. The question remains, are they just doing due diligence, are they legitimately interested in him, are they actively shopping for a left fielder, or is this a Damon-related smokescreen? Time will tell.

---

Speaking of Piliere, his list of the Top 100 Prospects went up yesterday. Jesus Montero checked in at number five, Manny Banuelos at 41, Austin Romine at 45, and Zach McAllister at 76. Recent Yankee farm hands Austin Jackson and Jose Tabata checked in at numbers 25 and 69. Head over and give it a read.

Why We're Lucky To Have Brian Cashman

Our GM discussing the current free agent market for outfielders (via LoHud):

“How long it’s taking certain people to wake up and smell the coffee, that’s what surprises me,” Cashman said. “When you get on the phone with agents, they tell you one thing, and certain agents (cough)ScottBoras(cough) can’t honestly believe what they’re trying to convey. Do they think I’m stupid?”

Okay, I added the italics. But I love the fact that there is someone in charge of the Yankees who can correctly gauge the market and sees through the bullshit. He doesn't rush or panic and is impervious to the games that agents try to play.

So to answer your question, Steve, yes I think Cashman "would be an effective and successful G.M. of a major league baseball team if he had a team payroll budget to work with that was in the range of $100 to $120 million (and no more than that)".

Another Point Of View On Damon

Good morning Fackers. While the great left field/Johnny Damon debate rages on, it's a far cry from last year at this time when the pilot light had all but burned out on the Hot Stove. After a gluttonous pre-Christmas spending spree that saw the Yankees land CC Sabathia, A.J. Burnett, and Mark Teixeira, we were all fat and happy. There was some talk about whether Nick Swisher or Xavier Nady would be the right fielder, or whether Melky Cabrera or Brett Gardner would be the center fielder, but for the most part we were sitting around waiting for Spring Training to start.

The biggest topic of conversation at this time last year centered not around the team for the upcoming season, or even the previous season, but upon the manager that had departed the team more than a year prior. As news of Joe Torre's and Tom Verducci's The Yankee Years began making the rounds, much of the chatter centered on the dirt Torre dished on his twelve years as the Yankee manager. Inside stories that had previously not been discussed much, if at all, garnered newfound media attention. One such story was about Johnny Damon, and I was reminded of it yesterday.

In the morning, Bob Klapisch of The Record had a story suggesting that Damon might just retire if he doesn't receive a suitable contract offer. Klapisch cited "a friend of Damon" who said "Johnny is in complete family mode right now", implying that retirement is a real possibility. The Klapisch story inspired a score of other blog postings on the topic, and was later refuted by Dave O'Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution, who tweeted that a friend of Damon (presumably a different friend than the one Klapisch consulted) stated that Damon is not considering retirement.

I'm inclined to believe O'Brien's friend of Johnny, and think that whatever friend Klapisch spoke to (Jon Heyman maybe?) is just trying to apply what little leverage Scott Boras and Damon have left after grossly overestimating the market for his services. But if there is some validity to Klapisch's speculation it wouldn't be the first time Damon has considered retirement. And if we take The Yankees Years at face value, the results weren't very pretty the first time.

During the 2006-7 off-season, Damon allegedly did not work out at all. As he may be now, he was very much "in family mode", and reported to camp out of shape and somewhat disinterested in baseball. Early in camp he approached Brian Cashman and Torre, stating he was contemplating retirement. He left camp for a few days to ponder his future, but eventually returned. But his late start hampered him. It took him some time to round himself into shape, leading to nagging injuries and poor performance throughout the early part of the season.

Torre further speculated that Damon still wasn't completely committed to playing baseball, and The Yankee Years suggests that a disinterested Damon lost much of his characteristic enthusiasm in the clubhouse and on the field. It further states that Damon's performance and attitude drew the ire of several teammates, notably the "old guard", including one unnamed teammate who approached Torre "near tears" suggesting that Damon had to go for the good of the team.

I'm not suggesting that all of that is the gospel truth, but in general terms, I'm willing to believe it's mostly correct. Verducci has direct quotes from Damon about the situation at that time, and nothing in his statements denies out and out that this was an issue. Damon's current contract situation, or lack thereof, makes it something of a different kettle of fish this time around. But there is some precedent for an uncommitted Damon reporting to camp, and if The Yankee Years is to be believed, I don't think that's an experience the organization wants to relive.

Another thing to consider are comments made by Brian Cashman early in the off-season. Speaking in general terms about free agents, Cashman speculated that not only do players not want to take pay cuts, but that they're less likely to take them from their previous team. It's an easily understandable theory, and if correct, I imagine the potential is greater for such a player to be a malcontent when returning to his previous team than it is when joining a new team. Buster Olney speculated that such a thought process might have played a role in the Yankees' December negotiations with Damon.

None of this is meant to disparage Johnny Damon. I'm of the opinion that he would be helpful to the 2010 Yankees, and if Jerry Hairston's comments to Jim Bowden on XM last night are to be believed, the Yankees are still in on him. However, virtually all of the discussion regarding Damon and the Yankees has revolved around salary - and salary is likely the biggest issue on the table. But, if the recent past is any indication, when it comes to Damon there may be more issues to consider other than if there's enough loose change in the couch cushions to pay his salary.

Winter Weekend Roundup

Good morning Fackers. With the exception of the overtime shootout between the Packers and Cardinals last night (which was the highest scoring playoff game in NFL history) there wasn't much in the way of interesting football to watch this weekend. Three of the games featured leads of two touchdowns or more during the first half and only one ended up with a final score within 10 points. Joe picked two of the four games correctly, which was a whole lot better than Bill Simmons, who went 0-4.

Football maybe have disappointed, but the Hot Stove kept burning all weekend long, offering up some warmth during a very cold weekend along the East Coast.

First, from the Yankees:

• Much to the chagrin of staffers at the NY Daily News, countless teenage girls and (reportedly) Tim McCarver, the Post believes that they have uncovered the date of Derek Jeter and Minka Kelly's wedding - this coming November 5th, two days after Game 7 of the 2010 World Series. Mark Melancon actually got married over the weekend, no one really cares about that.
  
  
• The Yankees are rumored to be in "serious talks" with Jerry Hairston, Jr. Neyer likes it as does Joe from RAB, each citing the value of versatility.
  

• Johnny Damon is still in search of a job, with the Braves one of a "handful of teams" Damon believes he "could win" with. The Yankees tried to tell Damon that this is how the market would play out, but unfortunately for him Scott Boras was more concerned finding a place for Matt Holliday. Via River Ave. Blues, Aubrey Huff signed with San Francisco, further limiting Damon's options.

And around the league:

• Although they had been pursing Aroldis Chapman "like crazy", the first news of the Reds' involvement came Sunday in the form of a tweet from Jeff Passan of Yahoo. There were some good jokes involving Dusty Baker and/or communism to be made, but they were snatched up pretty quickly. Here's a nice, if slightly outdated, video report on the Cuban lefty.
  
  Reds beat reporter John Fay says that the deal is for $25M over 5 years with an option for the 6th year. However, Chapman will be paid over a period of 10 years and his 2010 salary will only be in the neighborhood of $1M.
  
  Our buddy Craig thinks this is a good risk for the Reds at this point, adding another high upside arm to a young rotation. The A's were reportedly the next highest bidder.

• The Rangers signed Vlad Guererro for $5M plus incentives.

• Daisuke Matsuzaka told a paper in Japan that he hurt his thigh before the World Baseball Classic last year, but didn't bother to inform the Red Sox. Fans might see this as good news since it could explain some of his difficulties last season, but I can't imagine the organization is too pleased.

• Ed Wade continues to do his best to be included in "The Contest".

• Murray Chass lectured bloggers for making grammatical mistakes and, in accordance with Muprhy's Law, made some of his own in the process.

The Easiest (And Cheapest) Outfield Solution

It's been almost two weeks since the Yankees acquired Curtis Granderson and during that time, their 2010 roster has begun to congeal. Andy Pettitte was re-signed, Jamie Hoffman was acquired via the Rule V Draft, Nick Johnson was signed as a free agent, Hideki Matsui became an Angel and it is widely assumed that Johnny Damon's career as a Yankee has come to a close. However, in the game of musical chairs which will determine the outfield configuration for 2010, it's not even clear that all the participants have been identified. The music is most certainly still playing.

At the moment, the Yankees have 5 outfielders on their 25 man roster: Granderson, Hoffman, Nick Swisher, Melky Cabrera and Brett Gardner. The good news is that 4 of them are capable of playing center field. The bad news (aside from the fact that only one of them can do so) is that only two of the five can hit like Major League corner outfielders (Swisher and Granderson).

Even though there has been some sporadic talk about Swish being traded this offseason, let's simplify this by assuming that he will be the Yankees' right fielder come Opening Day. That leaves four players for two starting jobs, one of which will certainly belong to Granderson.

When the Yankees picked up Granderson, I hoped aloud that they would consider putting him in left field and keeping the center field platoon from 2009 intact. Not only would it require no further trades or acquisitions and be relatively inexpensive (~$15M), but it it would result in one of the better defensive outfields in the league. And as they say, "a [run] saved is a [run] earned".

Granderson has been above (+12.9), below (-9.4) and just about average (+1.6) defensively in 2007, 2008 and 2009, respectively, according to UZR. Using a 3-4-5 weighted average of those scores, his UZR/150 is approximately +3 over the past three years. Given that he was a slightly better than average center fielder, it would be safe to assume that he would be a significantly better than average left fielder. Left field in Yankee Stadium is plenty large so it's not like stashing a rangy defender there would be a waste.

I'm going to refrain from citing the exact UZRs for the Gardbrera Duo due to small sample sizes, but I'm willing to assume that Brett is a very good fielder while Melky is probably about average or slightly below. Combine them and the Yanks are a tick better than average in CF.

In terms of offense, there are two leaps of faith that I am taking here:

1) Granderson's offensive output will be closer to 2007 and 2008 than to 2009.

2) Cabrera and Gardner will be as good as they were last year or better at the plate.

Neither of those are trivial considerations, but there are reasons to be optimistic.

Granderson's BABIP of .275 is likely to improve from last year given that it is significantly lower than his carreer mark of .322. Bill at the Detroit Tigers Weblog estimated that about half of that drop was due to Granderson's approach and the other half to luck. Hitting in the New Yankee Stadium should also help. Additionally, it would be a lot easier to find a solid hitting right-handed platoon partner for Granderson (like Reed Johnson) who can play LF as opposed to one who can play center.

Melky has already experienced years in which he regressed instead of improving in his young career and there are good reasons why Gardner won't necessarily improve next year. But they are both in their mid-20's and should be able to at least replicate what they did at the plate in '09 barring an injury.

The Yankees have an infield full of star-caliber hitters, a DH with a .400 OBP and a right fielder who hits about 30 HRs as well. They won 103 regular season games (and the World Series) last year with Gardner and Melky splitting CF duty. I think they can afford to configure left and center field in a way that would maximize defensive production while being close to average at the plate. There are other ways to fill those holes, but they would likely cause the Yanks to get older and more expensive in the process.

Johnny Damon Would Give Himself A 4 Year Deal

One of the more absurd tidbits of the offseason emerged yesterday when Larry Stone of the Seattle Times dropped the following chestnut into an article about the Mariners' interest in signing Johnny Damon (h/t BBTF):

One other rather bizarre Mariner-related Damon anecdote. I heard from someone who works around the Mariners that after Bill Bavasi was fired in 2008, and the Mariners were searching for a new general manager, Damon actually was telling people he would be interested in the job. This person insisted that Damon seemed dead serious, even though he was still an active player. It didn't go anywhere, of course, but I always thought it was an interesting notion. I meant to ask Damon about it last year when the Yankees came to town, but never got a chance.

Johnny Damon seems like a pretty decent guy and when his career is done, he'll probably be a borderline Hall of Famer. He's played for four different organizations (including ones run by Billy Beane, Theo Epstein and Brain Cashman) and been on two World Series winners. The man certainly has an eye for talent. All that said, campaigning for a front office position is one of those times that being a self-proclaimed "idiot" (and "writing" a book about it) might work against you a bit.

Clearly no team with any brains is going to hand over the keys to their franchise to Johnny Damon; I'm certain that any number of assistant GMs or scouting directors or other front office personnel would make a better general manager. If this is true, it makes his request for a four year deal seem downright realistic by comparison.

The Return Of Nick The Stick

Good morning, Fackers. It appears as though the Yankees are close to signing Nick Johnson to a one year, $5.5M deal. Johnson can play exactly one position, first base, and since Mark Teixeira is as much of an everyday player as there is on the team, it looks like Johnson - health permitting - will be a more or less full time designated hitter. Apparently the Yanks weren't so intent on rotating the DH slot to their aging players after all.

With a career OBP of .402 (.426 over the last three years), Johnson is a powerful offensive asset who sees lots of pitches, has excellent strike zone discipline and hits left handed pitching well (.440 OBP against LHP last year) despite being left handed himself. Sticking a guy like that in the 2 hole - in front of Teixeira and A-Rod - is going to lead to a significant increase in RBI opportunities for those two. Nick the Stick's power has declined over the past three seasons (SLG .520, .431, .402), but it would be reasonable to assume that Yankee Stadium would help in that capacity.

The most obvious knock on Johnson is that he's injury prone, suffering ailments ranging from stress fractures in his hand to a fractured cheek bone to a broken femur to back problems to torn ligaments in his wrist. As a result, he has appeared in an average of only 93 games over the past 8 years (including the 2007 season, which he missed entirely). Conventional wisdom says that stashing him away at DH would help prevent injuries, but that's far from a guarantee.

It would have been nice to bring Johnny Damon back but that seems very unlikely if the deal for Johnson goes through. He was asking the Yankees for twice as much money as Johnson over a contract three times as long. Sure, the fact that Damon is able to play the outfield would have increased the flexibility of the roster, but if other players really need a day off, there isn't a good reason that Joe Girardi can't just give Johnson a rest.

As far as Hideki Matsui goes, I think Johnson is a better fit for the Yankees offense. Granted, they both provide next to nothing defensively, but at the plate, they are very similar. Johnson has a career wOBA of .371 and was at .373 last year. Those numbers for Matsui are .367 and .378, respectively. However, Matsui's numbers are predicated on power (which is volatile) while Johnson relies on the more stable on OBP.

I'd rather have someone with a gaudy OBP who A-Rod and Teix will continually have the opportunity to drive in than another, lesser power hitter behind them. Both Matsui and Johnson are injury prone, but the former suffers from chronic knee injuries that are only getting worse while Johnson seems to have been afflicted with more random and flukey ailments.

For what it's worth, Johnson was $1M cheaper than Matsui and it might have been more. As Brian Cashman noted in reference to Bobby Abreu, a player is less likely to take a pay cut from their former employer than from another team.

I don't want to hear about the money that Matsui makes for the organization over in Japan, because that's the team's problem, not the fans'. Who cares how popular the Yankees on the opposite side of the world? We don't benefit from the money they make over there. The fact that Matsui has performed well in the postseason is great, but there's no guarantee that he'll repeat that performance next time around.

Overall, I like this move for the Yankees. It carries limited risk and if Johnson can grind out his usual production for 500 or so plate appearances, he will be a tremendous asset to the line up.

Yanks And Damon Worlds Apart

Depending upon which you reports you believe, the Yankees may or may not have begun negotiating with Johnny Damon late last week. Various reports state that the two sides are worlds apart, with the Yankees offering 2 years and $18M and Damon requesting 4 years and $52M. Putting aside for a second the sheer lunacy of a 36 year old with questionable defensive skills and perhaps park-inflated value wanting a four year deal with an average annual value of $13M in a depressed market, I'm fairly confident the reported offers are accurate. Damon is a Scott Boras client, and since those figures came from notorious Boras mouthpiece Jon Heyman, I believe they are the actual figures being discussed.

We can infer a few things from this. Since it's all part of the negotiating process, I'd assume both sides would be happy offering/accepting more/less than what's currently on the table. If that's the case, we know the Yankees are willing to guarantee a second year and to do so at a market rate contract similar to what Bobby Abreu received from the Angels. We also know that Damon and Boras aren't ready to cave - at least not yet - in light of the Yankees recent outfield acquisitions of Curtis Granderson and Jaime Hoffmann. I'd imagine that they'll try to hold out until Matt Holliday and Jason Bay sign, further defining the outfield market. I just don't know if the Yankees will be willing to wait that long.

Meanwhile, according to a Ken Davidoff tweet on Thursday, there is increasing sentiment that the Yankees will wind up re-signing Hideki Matsui. While the Yankees still have room for both Damon and Matsui, it's more likely that only one or the other will be back next year. The Yankees likely prefer Damon since he can split time between DH and the outfield, but if he and Boras continue to drag their feet in negotiations, the club may turn back to Matsui, who hasn't been seriously rumored to be going anywhere else.

I'm sure this will be one of the predominant Yankee story lines as we move through the next few weeks of the off-season.

All Granderson, All The Time

Good morning Fackers. My gut reaction to the Curtis Granderson trade was indifference. Or confusion maybe. As best as I can describe, I don't think it's a bad trade, I'm just not sure it was a necessary trade. Perhaps this stems from some bias on my part, as from the start, I thought the Granderson-to-the-Yankees rumors were just unfounded rumors.

People far smarter than me (Keith Law, Rob Neyer, Dave Cameron, etc.) have labeled this a steal of a deal for the Yankees. I can understand that point of view and I can't come up with a solid counterargument against it. But my knee jerk reaction is that the Yankees had an average to just-above average centerfield platoon in 2009. Curtis Granderson is without a doubt an improvement upon that platoon, but outside of his outstanding 2007, he's been just very good rather than excellent over the past four years. I suppose that's still worth the price paid since Austin Jackson's ceiling is apparently to become Curtis Granderson, but it stings a bit to lose three guys that we've followed through the system over the past several years. I suppose any good trade has a price to pay, and the fact that I don't want to give up the likes of AJax, IPK, and Coke but that I'm not heartbroken over it means that it was a decent trade.

That said, the more I think about the deal, the more questions I come up with. In no specific order here are some thoughts and questions, some of which probably echo the multitude of thoughts already expressed on this deal:

• Where does Granderson play? At present the Yankees don't have a left fielder, but as above, they have a decent CF platoon. Does Granderson play left? A lot of Granderson's value comes from his ability to produce as he can as a centerfielder.


• Related to that, where does this leave Johnny Damon and Hideki Matsui? There's virtually no chance they both return now, if not because of roster spots then certainly because of payroll. Does either return?


• Granderson can't hit lefties. Gardner's a lefty, Melky's a switch hitter who can't really hit lefties either. Granderson likely needs a platoon partner. Does this mean Reed Johnson, as suggested by Keith Law and a host of others? If so, does that not leave room for Melky or Gardner? Or do we ignore Granderson's numbers against lefties and chalk it up to insufficient sample size, or assume that he can turn it around like Paul O'Neill before him?


• Brian Cashman was quoted this week as saying the Yankees priorities are "pitching, pitching, pitching and then leftfield". I assumed that to mean they were going to acquire pitching, or at least firm up pitching. Well, they have a left fielder, potentially, but all they've done so far is subtract pitching. Don't get me wrong, no one is going to cry over Brian Bruney, Ian Kennedy, and Phil Coke. But in them you have three guys who have proven themselves capable of pitching at the Major League level in various capacities. Now all three are gone without another pitcher to show for it. It may not have a major impact on the overall talent level, but does impact the depth.


• So much for keeping payroll down, or even reducing it. Granderson has a manageable deal for the next three to four years, but he's guaranteed $23.75M over the next three years, including $5.5M this year, with a $13M option or $2M buyout for 2013. Again, manageable, but more than what the Yankees would have been playing for the likely CF alternatives during that time.


• The Granderson deal should all but prevent the Yankees from dealing for Roy Halladay. All Halladay rumors started with Joba or Hughes combined with AJax or Montero. While 3 of those 4 guys are still available, making such a trade would leave the Yankees nearly completely devoid of young talent at the Big League level and the top levels of the farm system. Losing AJax and IPK may not be the worse thing in the world, but I think it does make it more important to keep the likes of Hughes, Chamberlain, and Montero.


• The Yankees have lost two relief pitchers over the last two days. Again, no big loss. But, Damaso Marte has been consistently inconsistent in the last two years and may be in the mix to be "The Eighth Inning Guy (TM)". Joe Girardi loves to match up. With Coke gone, I have to figure that barring a trade, Mike Dunn will be in the Yankee pen next year. In fact, given that the Yankees insisted he be pulled from the initially proposed deal, I imagine they have plans for him. Dunn's K rates are very appealing, but his BB rates scare me. A lot. He may be left handed Bruney. in fact he may make Bruney look like Greg Maddux by comparison.


• Granderson appears to be another high character acquisition for the Yankees. Obviously his talent is what precipitated the deal, but given the number of talented "character guys" the Yankees have brought in over the past year following years of malcontents, I can't help but wonder if the organization is targeting players who contribute both on the field and in the clubhouse.

Anyway, those were the first things that came to mind. This one's been dissected a thousand different ways throughout the Yankee blogosphere already. I'm sure we'll have more to say over the next several days.

Pondering Left Field And The DH

Good morning Fackers. Friday morning. Finally. Good Lord, a five day work week after a three day work week and four day weekend is a special kind of torture. I think I'd rather be water boarded. And still there's eight hours to go until that sweet, glorious weekend.

Speaking of interminable waits, today is the last weekday prior to the Winter Meetings. Maybe, just maybe, that'll get things moving and we'll get some actual player movement. Then again, the non-tender deadline for arbitration eligible players isn't until next Saturday, so the free agent market may not materialize until clubs know the full spectrum of who will be available.

Either way, the Yankees' biggest needs remain the ones we identified immediately after the World Series: filling the left field and designated hitter jobs for next year. As I stated then, I think the Yankees' best options for 2010 are to have both Johnny Damon and Hideki Matsui return on one year deals. To that end, here are a couple things I came across yesterday that speak to that (again, more confirmation bias on my part).

First up, we have Jay Jaffe at Futility Infielder examining the Yankees' decision not to offer arbitration to Johnny Damon. Jaffe points out that based on Nate Silver's calculations from four years ago, the value of the potential compensation picks forgone by not offering arbitration to Damon is somewhere in the neighborhood of $12M.

I've already stated that I thought it was a worthwhile risk to offer arbitration to Damon, but this drives the point home even more. It was no sure bet that Damon, as a Boras client seeking a multiyear deal, even would accept arbitration. If he refused, the club picks up the equivalent of $12M as compensation. If he accepted, the club keeps him for a year, which is probably all they really want to commit to him, at a price tag of about $15M - about $5M more than market value and exactly what Fangraphs pegs his worth, on average, over the last two years.

Yes, we're only talking about draft picks here, which don't always pan out and may be overvalued, as questioned by the blog-formerly-known-as-The-Yankee-Universe yesterday. But as Fangraphs pointed out last week, there are several factors to consider when pondering an arbitration offer. And all things considered, it appears the Yankees were unwilling to risk a $5M investment for a potential $12M return. Then again, the Yankees had the free agent market figured perfectly last year, so what do I know?

Next up, we have The Bronx View pondering if the DH spot is undervalued. And they raise very valid questions. The popular narrative is that the Yankees need to "free up" the DH spot so that Jorge Posada, Alex Rodriguez, and Derek Jeter can get some time off there. There's two problems with that. First every time one of those three players is the DH an inferior offensive player takes their position in the field for the day. Second, The Bronx View estimates those three players might account for 79 games at the DH spot next year; who is the designated hitter for the remaining 83 games?

I'm all for resting the aging veterans from time to time, whether it be with a full day off or with a day at DH. But that's going to cover half the season's games at most. The Yankees cannot afford to turn the DH spot over to an offensively inferior player for the other half of the games, particularly if they don't replace Damon's offense in left field.

I'm sure the options are being discussed at the Yankees' organizational meetings in Tampa. Hopefully, with the Winter Meetings starting Monday, we're not too far off from getting answers to these questions.

You'll Get Nothing And Like It

With a hat tip to RAB, Joel Sherman tweets that the Yankees have declined to offer arbitration to any of their free agents. While this makes perfect sense for unclassified free agents such as Hideki Matsui, Eric Hinske, Jerry Hairston Jr, and Jose Molina, not offering arbitration to Johnny Damon, Andy Pettitte, and Xavier Nady means that the Yankees will not receive draft pick compensation if any of them sign elsewhere.

I can understand the Yankees' thought process here, though as I stated previously, I think it was worth the risk to offer arbitration to Damon. That said, the Yankees had the market figured perfectly last year in declining offers to Pettitte, Bobby Abreu, and Jason Giambi.

Nothing is settled as a result of this. Pettitte will almost assuredly be in the Bronx if he chooses to play next year, and I still think that Damon and the Yankees make the most sense for each other. Nady is likely gone, but not offering him arbitration doesn't preclude him from coming back if that's what both parties want.

Damon now becomes a more attractive candidate to other teams, as they are free to sign him without surrendering a draft pick. This likely won't impact the Yankees at all, as their refusal to offer him arbitration indicates that they have a dollar amount in mind for Damon and they're not going to exceed that be it in arbitration or on the open market. What it does signal though is that if the Yankees are truly interested in bringing Damon back, they are apparently willing to offer at least an option year if not a guaranteed second year. It's highly unlikely that Damon will be accept a one year contract on the open market, and arbitration was the club's best bet to ensure keeping him for one year and one year only.

We'll be back in the morning with a run down of who amongst the Type A's was offered arbitration and how it might impact the Yankees free agent shopping.

Let The Wild Rumpus Start

Good morning Fackers. Well, here we are, December 1st. The first month since March in which there won't be a Major League Baseball game played. While that's a depressing thought to ponder as Old Man Winter settles in, this morning at least we can take some solace in knowing that we're less than a day away from entering the next stage of the Hot Stove League.

Midnight tonight is the deadline for clubs to offer arbitration to their own free agents. The Yankees have three such decisions to make: on Type A free agent Johnny Damon and Type B free agents Andy Pettitte and Xavier Nady. Clubs forfeit draft pick compensation for players to whom they do not offer arbitration. Losing a Type B free agent yields a supplemental pick between the first and second rounds; losing a Type A pick yields a supplemental pick plus the top draft pick of the team that signs the free agent.

The top 16 picks of next year's draft are protected from compensation, so if one of those teams signs a Type A they forfeit their second round pick rather than their first. Teams signing multiple Type A's surrender multiple picks, as we saw with the Yankees losing their first, second, and third round picks last year for signing Mark Teixeira, CC Sabathia, and A.J. Burnett respectively. In the event such a situation arises, the team that loses the player with the higher Elias ranking gets the higher pick from the signing team.

Two weeks ago we examined the issues surrounding offering arbitration to Johnny Damon. Andy Pettitte likely won't be offered but will almost assuredly be back if he elects to keep playing. If Xavier Nady is healthy he presenrs a good trade chip or an affordable and attractive OF/DH/bench option, but coming off his second Tommy John surgery that's a mighty big "if" for around $8M.

Yesterday MLBTR offered their arbitration predictions, forecasting that the Yankees would decline to offer arbitration to all three. Meanwhile, Dave Cameron at Fangraphs explained that teams have to weigh the arbitration offer not only against the fair market value of a player but also the probability that he'll accept and what the compensation picks would be worth to the club. While our post on Damon takes into account the value of the draft picks and the fair market value, The Yankee Universe brought up a salient point about the probability of accepting: Boras clients rarely accept arbitration as Boras is hellbent on taking them to market for a multiyear deal. It's unlikely that Damon, who wants a multiyear deal, will accept arbitration and forego his right to free agency. It may be well worth the risk to offer arbitration to Damon; we'll soon find out.

Either way, we're not very far off from business picking up in the Hot Stove League.