Fack Youk's First Annual Half-Assed Draft Preview!

For the defending World Champions lying in wait with the 32nd pick, the MLB Draft is not nearly as big of a deal as it is for the teams at the top of the heap, picking among the premier amateur talents available. In general, because most of the prospects taken are so far away from the Big Leagues and the attrition rate is so high, baseball's draft is inherently less compelling that its NFL (and especially) NBA counterparts.

However, that didn't stop Major League Baseball from moving the first round of it to 7:00pm tonight on MLBN, televising rounds 2-30 on Tuesday and rounds 31-50 on Wednesday. If the draft isn't that interesting to begin with, well, why not make it more interesting by slowing down the intervals between picks, inserting commercials and putting it in prime time!

Maybe I'm being a little to cynical there. To the average fan - meaning casual followers who don't read blogs - the draft is more or less inconsequential. However, to those of us who try to keep tabs on the farm system and get excited about prospects, it's at least worth paying attention to your own team's pick, in addition to the inevitable drama that will surround the efforts to sign Bryce Harper and other top talents.

As far as the Yankees are concerned, they are said to be targeting "one of two high school bats", but who they will select depends very heavily on who is taken in front of them. Typically, a couple of high-ceiling talents fall to the bottom of the first round every year because teams are concerned that they won't be able to sign them due to high signing bonus demands.

No team wants to face the dilemma of overpaying for their highest draft pick or simply letting them walk away and waiting until next year to pick in a similar spot. But the Yankees obviously have the financial power to ink a great prospect who is looking for a big payday and can afford for the pick not to reach the Majors in a worst case scenario, so they can take someone who might not pan out but will probably be pretty awesome if they do.

Again, who knows who will be available when the Yanks pick, but here are some names that they've been linked to in recent days:

• Tyrell Jenkins, who was Dave Chappelle's character in Half Baked.
  
  /touches earpiece
  
  I'm sorry, that was Thurgood Jenkins. This kid is a right handed pitcher out of Texas.
  
  
• Christian Yelich, an athletic, left handed hitting first baseman from Florida.
  
  
• Ryan LaMarre, an outfielder from the University of Michigan.
  
  
• Drew Vettelson, a high schooler from the state of Washington who is capable of pitching from both sides but will probably be drafted as a hitter.
  
  
• Robby Rowland, who was an excellent basketball player in high school but committed to play baseball at Oregon. He's a right handed power pitcher.
  
  
• Jesse Biddle, a 6'5" left handed pitcher who went to high school outside of Philadelphia.

There are going to be live blogs/chats at River Ave. Blues, FanGraphs and Big League Stew to name a few, and I'm sure all of those places will have plenty of valuable information should you want to follow along. We'll probably have something on the Yanks' pick first thing tomorrow morning. Enjoy the off night, Fackers, and we'll talk at you then.

Yankees Take Hoffmann In Rule V Draft, Lose Two Pitchers

As Joel Sherman indicated shortly before the draft began, the Yankees (by way of the Nationals) have selected OF Jamie Hoffmann with the first pick of the Rule V Draft from the Dodgers.

Chosen by the Carolina Hurricanes in the 8th round of the 2003 NHL Draft (which Matt appreciates), Hoffmann is an athletic 6'3", 235 lbs. He has spent the bulk of his minor league career playing the corners of the outfield but started 32 games in CF at AAA in 2009. Baseball America considered him the best defensive outfielder in the Dodger's system coming to this year, so he should be able to make a positive contribution where ever he's positioned.

He's a right handed batter whose career minor league line is .283/.355/.401, but was better last year, hitting .291/.360/.466 between AA and AAA. The Dodgers called him up for a short stint in May and June of last year where he went 4-22 with two doubles and a home run.

Greg Fertel at Pending Pinstripes takes a closer look at Hoffmann and notes that he had a good year against lefties in'09, although in only 120 ABs.

Here is a FanGraphs piece on him as well, written back in May.

Our buddy Craig sums up some of the lukewarm buzz at the meetings about him.

Cliff fron Bonx Banter doesn't like the move one bit.

The Yankees lost both Zack Kroenke and Kanekoa Texeira (who was part of the Nick Swisher deal) to Arizona and Seattle respectively. Matt took a closer look at both of them earlier this morning and reminded us that the Yankees eventually had all 4 players they lost last year returned to them. Kroenke could have been a useful bullpen piece for the Yanks this year and had they known they were going to lose Phil Coke, they probably would have protected him. But those are the breaks.

Let The Wild Rumpus Start

Good morning Fackers. Well, here we are, December 1st. The first month since March in which there won't be a Major League Baseball game played. While that's a depressing thought to ponder as Old Man Winter settles in, this morning at least we can take some solace in knowing that we're less than a day away from entering the next stage of the Hot Stove League.

Midnight tonight is the deadline for clubs to offer arbitration to their own free agents. The Yankees have three such decisions to make: on Type A free agent Johnny Damon and Type B free agents Andy Pettitte and Xavier Nady. Clubs forfeit draft pick compensation for players to whom they do not offer arbitration. Losing a Type B free agent yields a supplemental pick between the first and second rounds; losing a Type A pick yields a supplemental pick plus the top draft pick of the team that signs the free agent.

The top 16 picks of next year's draft are protected from compensation, so if one of those teams signs a Type A they forfeit their second round pick rather than their first. Teams signing multiple Type A's surrender multiple picks, as we saw with the Yankees losing their first, second, and third round picks last year for signing Mark Teixeira, CC Sabathia, and A.J. Burnett respectively. In the event such a situation arises, the team that loses the player with the higher Elias ranking gets the higher pick from the signing team.

Two weeks ago we examined the issues surrounding offering arbitration to Johnny Damon. Andy Pettitte likely won't be offered but will almost assuredly be back if he elects to keep playing. If Xavier Nady is healthy he presenrs a good trade chip or an affordable and attractive OF/DH/bench option, but coming off his second Tommy John surgery that's a mighty big "if" for around $8M.

Yesterday MLBTR offered their arbitration predictions, forecasting that the Yankees would decline to offer arbitration to all three. Meanwhile, Dave Cameron at Fangraphs explained that teams have to weigh the arbitration offer not only against the fair market value of a player but also the probability that he'll accept and what the compensation picks would be worth to the club. While our post on Damon takes into account the value of the draft picks and the fair market value, The Yankee Universe brought up a salient point about the probability of accepting: Boras clients rarely accept arbitration as Boras is hellbent on taking them to market for a multiyear deal. It's unlikely that Damon, who wants a multiyear deal, will accept arbitration and forego his right to free agency. It may be well worth the risk to offer arbitration to Damon; we'll soon find out.

Either way, we're not very far off from business picking up in the Hot Stove League.

Arbitration For Damon?

Good morning Fackers. We're more than halfway through November. The free agency signing period opens in full this Friday. However, since the deadline for teams to offer their own free agents arbitration isn't until December 1st, it's unlikely that we'll see any signings before then. Teams that lose free agents prior to the arbitration deadline are automatically entitled to the appropriate draft pick compensation.

We may see a few unclassified free agents sign since they carry no compensation, or a few Type B free agents sign since the signing team does not surrender a draft pick of their own. Generally speaking though, it's the Type A free agents that set the market, and since draft pick compensation for a Type A free agent requires the signing team to surrender their first round draft pick (or second round pick for the teams with the top fifteen picks), it's unlikely that we'll see any Type A's sign - and therefore unlikely that we'll see the market set - until after December 1st.

In baseball's changing economic landscape, extending an arbitration offer isn't the no-brainer it once was. As the U.S. economy nosedived last fall, so too did the market for free agents. The Yankees rightly decided not extend arbitration offers to the likes of Jason Giambi, Bobby Abreu, and even Andy Pettitte, as they stood to earn more in arbitration than they would on the open market. In a similar vein, this fall, baseball insiders - notably Buster Olney - are predicting widespread non-tendering of arbitration eligible players whose likely arbitration raises exceed their value to their club. Such situations have already precipitated the trades of J.J. Hardy by the Brewers and Jeremy Hermida by the Marlins this off-season.

As far as the Yankees are concerned, they have three arbitration decisions to make on their own free agents this year: Type B free agents Xavier Nady and Andy Pettitte, and Type A free agent Johnny Damon.

While Andy Pettitte is almost assured to return and Xavier Nady offers a high risk, high reward proposition at a reasonable price tag, Johnny Damon presents the most interesting case of the three. While Damon has stated his desire to return to the Yankees since early in the season, there have also been rumblings of his wanting a multiyear contract and not affording the Yankees a "hometown discount". How much of that is posturing by Damon and agent Scott Boras remains to be seen.

Ideally, the Yankees would want to sign Damon for a single year, maybe two, at a salary comparable to the two year, $19M extension Bobby Abreu signed with the Angels earlier this month. However, Damon is coming off a outstanding season. There are teams out there with need (Giants) a player like Damon and GM's without the acumen (Brian Sabean) who might offer Damon what he wants both in terms of years and dollars.

By no means should the Yankees cave to such demands on the part of Damon. However, without resigning Damon on their terms, the Yankees are left with a series of less favorable options: play some combination of Cabrera/Gardner/Jackson in LF/CF, make a potentially costly trade for Curtis Granderson or another outfielder, or pursue a big ticket free agent such as Jason Bay or Matt Holiday, both of whom would require a major commitment in terms of both dollars and years.

Thus, it might be a calculated risk for the Yankees to indeed offer arbitration to Damon. While this would be a departure from the tact they took with Abreu last off-season, the Yankees have a need for Damon, whereas last year Abreu would have been a superfluous and expensive part in addition to Damon, Nady, Swisher, and Matsui. Worst case scenario, Damon would accept. This would ensure him a raise on the $13M he made last year, likely leaving him in the neighborhood of $15M-$16M on a one year deal.

This would certainly be more than Damon could get on the open market and likely more than he is worth - but not by much. Fangraphs.com places Damon's value at $13.6M this past season and $16.4M in 2008. Offering him arbitration might force them to pay a small premium for his services, but it's a premium the Yankees could likely afford to absorb. Further, it would assure that they keep Damon's services for a time frame of their choosing, and would give them the added safety net of an additional first round and supplemental round pick should Damon find his multiyear deal elsewhere.

So what do you think? Should the Yankees offer arbitration to Johnny Damon?

Afternoon Quick Hits

It's Minimal Effort Day here at Fack Youk. It's Friday, we're all just trying to keep our eyes open.

From our graphical/interactive department:

• How many Yankee captains can you name? (via the B-R blog) I got 7/11. If you get either of the first two or the guy between Ruth and Gehrig, I'll be really impressed.
  
  
• Q: How often does the team with the best regular season record win the World Series?
  
  A: Not that often.

Some Yanks vs. Sox links:

• Tony Massarotti breaks down the Yanks vs. Sox season series into three phases and hopes there will be a fourth.
  
  
• Nick Cardafo lists five areas each team needs to address heading into the postseason.
  
  
• PeteAbe surmises that at least one team will be celebrating this weekend. The Post (as always) takes it one step further.
  

Other stuff:

• Octavio Dotel would like to play for the Yankees. Unfortunately for him, the Yanks aren't going to give up a first round draft pick for a 35 year old reliever.
  
  
• Get out your Bunsen Burners and Erlenmeyer flasks, it's time to measure clubhouse chemistry!
  
  
• Here's something new, instead of the Mets getting robbed by their players, now their players are getting robbed.

We'll be back with the preview in a little while.

Draft Signings Update

Today is the last day that teams have to come to an agreement with the players they selected in the Amateur Draft back on June 10th & 11th. After signing their fifth round pick, Caleb Cotham, a right handed pitcher from Vanderbuilt for $675,000, nearly 4 times above slot, the only Yankees top 8 picks left unsigned were their first and second rounders.

Slade Heathcott, the lefty-hitting outfielder who we've talked about around here pretty extensively has now finalized his deal with the Yanks. His bonus is reported to be $2.2M, which is roughly double the $1.1M that recommended for the 29th overall pick. After losing Geritt Cole, their first round choice last year, the Yankees were obviously reluctant to see the same thing happen again lest they not be compensated with an additional pick next year, and saddled up with some serious loot for the young man from Texarkana.

Their second round pick, number 76 overall, was J.R. Murphy, a high school catcher from Bradenton, Florida. Keith Law and Lane Meyer (via RAB) have both confirmed the signing but no dollar amount has been announced. $478,000 is the recommended bonus for that slot, but Mike from RAB guesstimates that he'll receive upwards of twice that much.

Given that the Yanks have signed their 14 highest draft picks, with the exception of 9th rounder Tyler Lyons, this draft can be a successful one as of now. We won't know for quite some time how good it really was, though.