Jonathan Papelbon ≠ Mariano Rivera. Ever.

Take it away, Gordon Edes...

I'm sorry, what?

Again, but just the second part:

Whose path?

Okay.

Mariano Rivera's "path" began in Puerto Caimito, Panama playing baseball with makeshift equipment in the streets. He signed with the Yankees for $3,000 and spent 5 years toiling in the minors. Now he's won 5 World Series, is the greatest closer ever and has accomplished it all with a freakish reliance on one pitch. Jonathan Papelbon was a starting pitcher in the minors, has one World Series ring and closes for a team in the AL East, but you lose me after that.

Now, aside from the fact that both guys have three vowels in their last name, what are these amazing off the field similarities?

When you compare the earnings curve of the Yankees' icon and the Red Sox All-Star, there are definite parallels, especially in the way both have worked on one-year deals in the early years of their careers.

Yes. Them and 75% of the other players to reach the Major Leagues. See, there is a process called arbitration, and most players aren't offered multi-year deals that buy out... Nevermind. Maybe I'm nitpicking here, but "off the field" usually refers to a player's life away from baseball, not his contract status with his team.

But continue, Gordon, with these uncanny parallels:

Rivera had two Series rings when he became eligible for arbitration for the first time in 1999 and signed a one-year deal for $4.25 million. He went to an arbitration hearing before the following season, 2000, and lost, receiving a contract for $7.25 million after asking for $9.25 million. His $3 million raise was just $100,000 short of what Papelbon received.

Yes, what a coincidence that Papelbon and Rivera both performed well, went through the same process and got similarly proportioned raises. It's almost as if Papelbon's agent used Rivera as a precedent!

And now for the part where Edes completely submarines his own analogy:

Papelbon has demonstrated that he will not settle for anything less than what he considers fair value for his talents, and the Red Sox may not be willing to pay eight figures for a closer. And unlike the Yankees, the Red Sox have a prospective closer-in-waiting in Daniel Bard.

The last Yankees closer before Rivera was an All-Star named John Wetteland, who was named MVP of the 1996 World Series after saving all four games against the Atlanta Braves. But after the season, the Yankees allowed Wetteland to leave as a free agent because Rivera was in the wings. And we all know how that worked out.

Got that folks? Jonathan Papelbon = Mariano Rivera. Until the last paragraph, wherein Jonathan Papelbon = John Wetteland and Daniel Bard becomes Rivera.

Was Jonathan Papelbon raised in a fishing village in Panama? Did he once work upon a commercial shrimping boat? Is he devoutly religious? Is he fluent in Spanish? Does he own a steakhouse in New Rochelle?

No. Jonathan Papelbon is a blithering ignoramus who picks out names for his kids based on whether they are "badass" or not. He says stupid things without thinking. He's a demonstrative douchebag on the mound. He does not throw a cut fastball. He's part childish buffoon and part ungracious asshole. In short he's the anti-Mo.

Rivera is as distinguished of a player as there is active in baseball. He conducts himself with dignity and class in every facet in his life that is visible to the public. It's nothing short of insulting to Mo to equate him to Papelbon in an way. To do so is to stoop to lazy, hacky journalism. Eventually, someone may follow in Mariano Rivera's "path" to some extent. But that person will not be Jonathan Papelbon.

Glen Perkins And Undeserved Demotions

Way back in May, when Jay decided to take a little getaway, he blindly handed me to the keys to the blog for the week. The Yankees were about to wrap a four game series against the Twins, having won the first three via walkoff. The series finale was a Monday night affair, one I was to attend. But before I could escape the office and get on the road, I had to author my first game preview.

In keeping with Fack Youk tradition, I had to choose a song to work into the preview. After looking at the pitching match up for the night, I decided to riff on the name of the Twins starting pitcher for the night and went with "Carl Perkins Cadillac" from the very awesome Drive-By Truckers.

Glen Perkins started for the Twins that night, and the Yankees touched him up pretty good. It marked the fifth straight start in which Perkins surrendered at least four earned runs. The next day, Perkins was placed on the DL with an elbow issue. He returned a month later, and continued to struggle through another nine starts and a relief appearance. He was disabled again, and instead of being activated at the end of the month when rosters expanded, the Twins optioned him to AAA, despite the fact the minor league season was essentially over.

Though Perkins struggled in 2009, it was still an unorthodox move, particularly for a club that was in a pennant race. Perkins thought so too, and filed a grievance against the Twins. Being optioned out, rather than kept on the DL, prevented Perkins from accruing Major League service time. Not only did he fail to earn a Big League salary in that time, but the lack of service time prevented him from attaining Super Two arbitration status. That in turn has a major impact upon Perkins' salary for this year and beyond.

Back when I wrote that preview, I noted how cool it must have been for Perkins, born and bred in St. Paul and a former member of the University of Minnesota baseball team, to be drafted by and playing for his hometown team. But as we saw in the 1990 Sports Illustrated article about Dave Righetti that we linked to Friday, sometimes living out a boyhood dream isn't all it's cracked up to be. There's now a rift between Perkins and his club, and there's a chance he won't be a Twin much longer. It appears Perkins won't have quite as happy a story as fellow hometown hero Joe Mauer.

In the bigger picture, Perkins' story is part of an interesting and possibly troubling trend around the game: teams questionably optioning out young, but established players in effort to keep them under club control longer. The Twins took a similar tact with Francisco Liriano in 2008, and the Royals treated Alex Gordon the same way last year. We've seen teams delay calling up prospects like Evan Longoria, David Price, and Matt Wieters in order to keep them from Super Two arbitration status. But in my eyes at least, there's a difference between a club doing that to a minor leaguer on the way up as opposed to doing it to established Major Leaguers like Perkins, Liriano, and Gordon.

The past decade has seen Major League clubs look to exploit market inefficiencies. Valuing young, cost controlled talent has been amongst the leading ways teams have looked to gain an edge. Holding back Longoria, Price, and Wieters and sending down Liriano, Perkins, and Gordon are all part of that process. If Dave Cameron is right and veteran players are the latest market inefficieny, it'll be interesting to see if this trend of demoting established young players continues.

Yanks Settle With Gaudin, Logan

The Yankees settled two potential arbitration cases yesterday, agreeing to terms with pitchers Chad Gaudin and Boone Logan.

Gaudin was acquired from San Diego for cash on August 6th last season. He went 2-0 with a 3.43 ERA in 11 appearances, 6 starts, for the Yankees, and worked one inning of mop up duty against the Angels in the ALCS. He has an outside shot at the fifth starter spot in Spring Training, but realistically is battling Sergio Mitre for the long man role. Gaudin also has experience in short relief, and has fared well historically against right handed batters. Gaudin settled for $2.95M, a raise over last year's $2M salary. His deal also includes innings based incentive clauses.

Logan was acquired from the Braves in the Javier Vazquez trade, the second time in as many season's that he's been included in trade with Vazquez. Logan is a candidate to make the club as a second lefty out of the bullpen, and given Joe Girardi's love of matching up, Logan will likely head north with the team, despite mediocre numbers over the course of his career. Logan settled for $590K, after making $475K last year.

By settling with Gaudin and Logan, the Yankees have no pending arbitration cases.

Yanks Do Not Treat Wang Tenderly

Good morning Fackers. As we, and most everyone else predicted Friday, the Yankees yesterday tendered contracts to arbitration eligible players Chad Gaudin, Sergio Mitre, and Melky Cabrera, but not Chien-Ming Wang.

Wang, who made $5M last year, would have been guaranteed a minimum of $4M in arbitration. Wang missed the majority of both of the last two seasons. A freak lis-franc injury suffered while running the bases in interleague play ended his 2008 season on June 15th. After a rehab that the Yankees arguably botched, Wang returned in 2009 with three historically bad starts, culminating with a disastrous 1.1 IP, 8 ER outing against the Indians in the third game at the new Yankee Stadium, a game the Yankees eventually lost 24-4.

Following that outing, the Yankees placed Wang on the DL with a questionable "weakness in his abductor muscles" injury, allowing him to rehab in the minor leagues. But rather than allowing Wang the entirety of his 30 day rehab assignment to right his ship, the Yankees hastily activated him after just two starts, panicking after Joba Chamberlain exited a start after being hit with a line drive. Relegated to a mop up role, Wang wallowed in limbo, making three relief appearances over a ten day stretch. He was then returned to the rotation, making six starts that were mediocre at best. He exited his July 4th start against the Blue Jays, suffering from shoulder pain. Surgery at the end of July, the second shoulder operation of his professional career, officially ended his season, and likely his Yankee career.

The Yankees will likely make a token attempt to re-sign Wang to a team friendly, incentive laced deal, but I'm not holding my breath waiting for it to happen. Chances are he can find a better deal, or at least a better chance to pitch, elsewhere. There may also be some lingering hard feelings from Wang towards the organization following past contract negotiations and how his injury situation was handled. According to a Friday afternoon tweet from Brian Hoch, Wang's agent, Alan Nero, said Wang will look to move on if non-tendered. If this is the end of Wang's Yankee career, it will go down as one of the sadder chapters in recent Yankee history.

As for the rest of the Yankees' arbitration eligible players, Mitre and Gaudin and will provide added depth to the Yankee pitching staff, which will be thinner without Wang. Both will be in the mix for the back of the rotation/long man roles, and both - particularly Gaudin - may be of use in other relief roles. Meanwhile, Melky remains in the mix for the outfield, if not as a potential left fielder than in competition with Brett Gardner and recently acquired Jamie Hoffmann for back up roles.

The arbitration decisions leave the Yankees 40 man roster at 37. We'll take a look at some of the other non-tendered players during the week.

Non-Tender Deadline Preview

Good morning Fackers. Well, the whirlwind week of Winter Meetings is essentially behind us. My head is still spinning from all the updates, blog postings, tweets, and rumors floating about. But things are starting to take shape. I think the Yankees are far from being done maneuvering however.

The last event for this week is tomorrow's non-tender deadline for arbitration eligible players. Arbitration eligible players not tendered a contract by their club prior to the deadline become free agents. The Yankees have four arbitration eligible players:

• Chien-Ming Wang: Wang is universally regarded as a goner. The Yankees do not want to offer him arbitration and play him more than the $5M he made in 2009 after he's missed nearly the entirety of the past two seasons. Wang started a throwing program last week, and his agent claims he won't be far behind other pitchers in spring training, stating he'll be ready to pitch by May 1st. Still, the Yankees don't figure it wise to commit the money to Wang given his injury history - including three shoulder injuries now - his poor performance last year and the uncertainty that surrounds him moving forward. I'll be sad to see him go. He was a very good pitcher for the Yankees for three plus years before that freak injury in Houston nearly two years ago. The Yankees likely botched his rehab and then didn't really put him in a position to succeed or improve upon his return.There's a chance Wang re-signs with the Yankees for less money, but I just don't see it happening. He'll likely receive a better offer from someone else; Joe Torre and the Dodgers have expressed interest.
  


• Chad Gaudin: Surprisingly, Gaudin has been mentioned as a potential non-tender candidate, as he stands to make about $3M through arbitration. I can't see the Yanks non-tendering him however. If the priority is pitching, pitching, pitching, then left-field, the Yankees cannot afford to keep jettisoning pitchers. Say what you will about Brian Bruney, Phil Coke, and Ian Kennedy, but trading them subtracts from depth. I doubt the Yankees will let a capable, versatile pitcher like Gaudin go over a few hundred thousand dollars. His ability to be serviceable as a starter or a reliever would be of benefit to the 2010 Yankees.


• Sergio Mitre: There's no indication Mitre will be non-tendered. Earlier in the off-season the Yankees declined their $1.25M option on Mitre, but that doesn't mean they don't want him around next year. He wasn't outrighted or designated for assignment, so it appears the Yankees are willing to go to arbitration with him, where they figure to get him for less than the value of his option. I wasn't impressed with Mitre at all last year, but again, pitching depth is the name of the game right now. At this point, Mitre doesn't figure to be a member of the starting rotation, so perhaps the sinkerballer can be of double play inducing value out of the bullpen and serve as the designated longman.


• Melky Cabrera: There's no chance Melky will be non-tendered. After regressing for two straight seasons after an impressive rookie year, Melky was one of several Yankees to enjoy a bounceback season in 2009. His role for 2010 remains uncertain with the acquisition of Curtis Granderson and the word that the Yankees are trying to re-sign Johnny Damon. Cabrera could be in the mix for LF job, he could be the 4th outfielder, or he could be trade bait given the apparent glut of 4th outfielder / back-up center fielder types on the Yankee roster at present. But one way or the other, the Yankees will want to secure their rights to him for 2010, so he will be tendered a contract. After making $1.4M last year, some estimate Melky may earn as much as $3M in 2010.

Once the news breaks, we'll take a look at some of the players non-tendered by other clubs.

Bruney To The Braves? Nats

[UPDATE 1:50 PM: According to Joel Sherman, Bruney has been dealt to the Nationals for a PTBNL. Makes more sense than the Braves; Yanks realize the same benefit. h/t: TYU]

According to George A. King III, the Yankees are close to sending Brian Bruney to the Braves for prospect(s).

Putting aside for a second that this rumor is coming from The Post, it still makes no sense. The Braves have already signed Billy Wagner and Takashi Saito for more than $10M guaranteed in 2010. They're about to get blindsided by Rafael Soriano accepting arbitration for around $8M next year. Why in the world would they acquire another reliever - with a spotty track record at that - when he's arbitration eligible and due to make anywhere from $1.5M to $2M next year? The Braves desperately need and want an OF bat and need to free payroll from their starting rotation to acquire one. Why then would they accumulate $20M worth of relief pitching before the Winter Meetings even wrap?

From the Yankees standpoint, I think this would be a good deal. Bruney was initially thought to be a non-tender candidate, but all recent indications have been that he will be offered a contract. By moving him now, the Yankees free an incremental amount of payroll - not a major issue for them - but also give themselves some 40 man roster flexibility. Furthermore, it gives them some latitude with next year's bullpen as it takes an optionless pitcher out of the mix. Bruney would likely have been a candidate to be the "7th inning guy" or even "the 8th inning guy", but we've seen that movie before. The club has enough options with David Robertson, Mark Melancon, Damaso Marte, and potentially either Phil Hughes or Joba Chamberlain to cover the late innings.

I'm not buying this one yet, but it'll be interesting to see where it goes.

Pondering Left Field And The DH

Good morning Fackers. Friday morning. Finally. Good Lord, a five day work week after a three day work week and four day weekend is a special kind of torture. I think I'd rather be water boarded. And still there's eight hours to go until that sweet, glorious weekend.

Speaking of interminable waits, today is the last weekday prior to the Winter Meetings. Maybe, just maybe, that'll get things moving and we'll get some actual player movement. Then again, the non-tender deadline for arbitration eligible players isn't until next Saturday, so the free agent market may not materialize until clubs know the full spectrum of who will be available.

Either way, the Yankees' biggest needs remain the ones we identified immediately after the World Series: filling the left field and designated hitter jobs for next year. As I stated then, I think the Yankees' best options for 2010 are to have both Johnny Damon and Hideki Matsui return on one year deals. To that end, here are a couple things I came across yesterday that speak to that (again, more confirmation bias on my part).

First up, we have Jay Jaffe at Futility Infielder examining the Yankees' decision not to offer arbitration to Johnny Damon. Jaffe points out that based on Nate Silver's calculations from four years ago, the value of the potential compensation picks forgone by not offering arbitration to Damon is somewhere in the neighborhood of $12M.

I've already stated that I thought it was a worthwhile risk to offer arbitration to Damon, but this drives the point home even more. It was no sure bet that Damon, as a Boras client seeking a multiyear deal, even would accept arbitration. If he refused, the club picks up the equivalent of $12M as compensation. If he accepted, the club keeps him for a year, which is probably all they really want to commit to him, at a price tag of about $15M - about $5M more than market value and exactly what Fangraphs pegs his worth, on average, over the last two years.

Yes, we're only talking about draft picks here, which don't always pan out and may be overvalued, as questioned by the blog-formerly-known-as-The-Yankee-Universe yesterday. But as Fangraphs pointed out last week, there are several factors to consider when pondering an arbitration offer. And all things considered, it appears the Yankees were unwilling to risk a $5M investment for a potential $12M return. Then again, the Yankees had the free agent market figured perfectly last year, so what do I know?

Next up, we have The Bronx View pondering if the DH spot is undervalued. And they raise very valid questions. The popular narrative is that the Yankees need to "free up" the DH spot so that Jorge Posada, Alex Rodriguez, and Derek Jeter can get some time off there. There's two problems with that. First every time one of those three players is the DH an inferior offensive player takes their position in the field for the day. Second, The Bronx View estimates those three players might account for 79 games at the DH spot next year; who is the designated hitter for the remaining 83 games?

I'm all for resting the aging veterans from time to time, whether it be with a full day off or with a day at DH. But that's going to cover half the season's games at most. The Yankees cannot afford to turn the DH spot over to an offensively inferior player for the other half of the games, particularly if they don't replace Damon's offense in left field.

I'm sure the options are being discussed at the Yankees' organizational meetings in Tampa. Hopefully, with the Winter Meetings starting Monday, we're not too far off from getting answers to these questions.

The Many Facets Of The Billy Wagner Signing

As was reported this morning, the Atlanta Braves signed Billy Wagner to a $7M deal with a $6.5M option that vests if he finishes 50 games in 2010. Wagner is no spring chicken - he'll turn 39 next July - and he only pitched 15 2/3 Major League innings since returning from Tommy John surgery in 2009. Granted, he was effective in those innings, but signing him carries a great deal of risk. It's not the deal itself that makes the Braves acquisition interesting, though; it's what it took to get to this point and what will also change hands as a result (and the fact that the Mets screwed themselves).

If you'll recall, the Mets traded Wagner to the Red Sox after only two appearances following his return from injury for (at the time) two players to be named later. It seemed as though the Red Sox were shoring up their bullpen for the stretch run and postseason, but in retrospect it seems that Theo Epstein had a little something more up his sleeve.

One of those PTBNL was a 26 year old minor league first baseman/outfielder named Chris Carter. In six MiLB seasons, Carter had a batting line of .306/.380/.510, but only sniffed the Majors because of the Fackin' Youkstah occupying 1B and several very capable (and expensive) players taking up the corners of the outfield. However, given the absence of Carlos Delgado and the struggles of David Murphy on the Mets, he would have been a useful piece and figured to get his first taste of regular season playing time in the Bigs.

Carter was on the 40 man roster of the Sox and in order for him to be included in the trade (since it occurred after the non-waiver deadline of July 31st) he had to pass through waivers (one of the reasons teams rarely send back players on the 40 man in waiver deals). Unfortunately for him, the Yankees placed a waiver claim on Carter and denied him the MLB at bats that he must have so badly desired. Since the Red Sox decided they needed that 40 man roster spot for pitcher Dustin Richardson (who pitched 3.1 innings for them this year), they DFA'd Carter, at which point any team could have claimed him - even the Mets, which would have forced the Sox to include someone else an additional player in the deal - but no one did.

So at the conclusion of the season, Carter returned to the Sox and, in addition to Eddie Lora, a 20 year old first baseman still in the Gulf Coast League, was sent to the Mets and the deal was completed.

When the Sox acquired Wagner, he asked them to agree that they would not exercise his $8M option for 2010 in hopes that he could close somewhere else. The Sox agreed to that term, but

were still allowed to offer him arbitration.

In a perfect world, Wagner would have been a Type B or unclassified free agent since he only pitched in 17 games last year, but since the Elias Rankings take previous years into consideration, he attained Type A status. As a result, when the Sox offered him arbitration, he turned it down and now they will likely receive the Braves 20th overall pick in addition to a supplemental rounder. Since the Sox are looking for a second baseman or shortstop (depending on whether Dustin Pedroia actually changes positions) it could lessen the burden of picking up a player like Marco Scutaro, who would cost the Sox a first round pick as our buddy Jason points out.

The Braves are not all that concerned about giving up their first round pick since they actually have two Type A free agents of their own hitting the marketplace - Rafael Soriano and Mike Gonzalez - and figure that one or both are likely to decline the arbitration offers from the Braves and sign elsewhere. They surrendered their first rounder, but signed a pitcher who could very well fill the role of closer and doubled down with a team-friendly option if Wagner performs well this year.

The Sox got one of the highest draft picks you can receive in free agent compensation (#20, since the top 15 are protected) if the Braves don't sign a higher-ranking free agent and a supplemental rounder in exchange for a spare part and a Rookie League first baseman.

And what about the Mets? They ended up with Chris Carter, who could be a somewhat useful piece on their team next year, although at 27 he has limited upside, and Eddie Lora, who is light years away from the MLB.

Did Omar Minaya overlook the draft pick compensation system when he dealt Wagner on the cheap? Did Theo Epstein have it in mind when he acquired him? I can't help but think the Sox made out like bandits here.

Arbitration Round Up

Good morning Fackers. The Yankees announced a free agent signing this week, but it's not the big news anyone was waiting on. The club signed Taiwanese teenager Fu-Lin Kuo to a contract. RAB's Mike Axisa has the details.

Meanwhile, the details are in from yesterday's arbitration-palooza. MLBTR has the full rundown of who was offered and who wasn't. For the Yankees' purposes, the only players of concern are Type A free agents who were offered arbitration. Signing any of these players would result in the Yankees forfeiting their first round pick, thirty second overall. Signing more than one, as they did last year, would result in the forfeiture of additional picks.

Here's a list of Type A's who were offered:

• Marco Scutaro
• Chone Figgins
• Jason Bay
• Matt Holliday
• John Lackey
• Mike Gonzalez
• Rafael Soriano
• Jose Valverde
• Billy Wagner
• Rafael Betancourt

Billy Wagner has already reached a deal with the Braves for one year, $7M, with a $6.5M vesting option. This should help set the market for the other relievers on the list.

Per usual, the Yankees have been rumored to have an interest in most players on this list. We've already poked holes in the Chone Figgins rumor. Neither Bay nor Holliday seems to be worth the cost in left field, and few relievers are worth surrendering draft pick compensation. Brian Cashman's comments yesterday seem to indicate they won't be pursuing any such relievers.

Based on that list and those comments, it appears the Yankees might only be willing to sacrifice their first rounder for Lackey, or if they turn to Holliday, Bay, or less likely Figgins to fill their current left field vacancy.

You'll Get Nothing And Like It

With a hat tip to RAB, Joel Sherman tweets that the Yankees have declined to offer arbitration to any of their free agents. While this makes perfect sense for unclassified free agents such as Hideki Matsui, Eric Hinske, Jerry Hairston Jr, and Jose Molina, not offering arbitration to Johnny Damon, Andy Pettitte, and Xavier Nady means that the Yankees will not receive draft pick compensation if any of them sign elsewhere.

I can understand the Yankees' thought process here, though as I stated previously, I think it was worth the risk to offer arbitration to Damon. That said, the Yankees had the market figured perfectly last year in declining offers to Pettitte, Bobby Abreu, and Jason Giambi.

Nothing is settled as a result of this. Pettitte will almost assuredly be in the Bronx if he chooses to play next year, and I still think that Damon and the Yankees make the most sense for each other. Nady is likely gone, but not offering him arbitration doesn't preclude him from coming back if that's what both parties want.

Damon now becomes a more attractive candidate to other teams, as they are free to sign him without surrendering a draft pick. This likely won't impact the Yankees at all, as their refusal to offer him arbitration indicates that they have a dollar amount in mind for Damon and they're not going to exceed that be it in arbitration or on the open market. What it does signal though is that if the Yankees are truly interested in bringing Damon back, they are apparently willing to offer at least an option year if not a guaranteed second year. It's highly unlikely that Damon will be accept a one year contract on the open market, and arbitration was the club's best bet to ensure keeping him for one year and one year only.

We'll be back in the morning with a run down of who amongst the Type A's was offered arbitration and how it might impact the Yankees free agent shopping.

Let The Wild Rumpus Start

Good morning Fackers. Well, here we are, December 1st. The first month since March in which there won't be a Major League Baseball game played. While that's a depressing thought to ponder as Old Man Winter settles in, this morning at least we can take some solace in knowing that we're less than a day away from entering the next stage of the Hot Stove League.

Midnight tonight is the deadline for clubs to offer arbitration to their own free agents. The Yankees have three such decisions to make: on Type A free agent Johnny Damon and Type B free agents Andy Pettitte and Xavier Nady. Clubs forfeit draft pick compensation for players to whom they do not offer arbitration. Losing a Type B free agent yields a supplemental pick between the first and second rounds; losing a Type A pick yields a supplemental pick plus the top draft pick of the team that signs the free agent.

The top 16 picks of next year's draft are protected from compensation, so if one of those teams signs a Type A they forfeit their second round pick rather than their first. Teams signing multiple Type A's surrender multiple picks, as we saw with the Yankees losing their first, second, and third round picks last year for signing Mark Teixeira, CC Sabathia, and A.J. Burnett respectively. In the event such a situation arises, the team that loses the player with the higher Elias ranking gets the higher pick from the signing team.

Two weeks ago we examined the issues surrounding offering arbitration to Johnny Damon. Andy Pettitte likely won't be offered but will almost assuredly be back if he elects to keep playing. If Xavier Nady is healthy he presenrs a good trade chip or an affordable and attractive OF/DH/bench option, but coming off his second Tommy John surgery that's a mighty big "if" for around $8M.

Yesterday MLBTR offered their arbitration predictions, forecasting that the Yankees would decline to offer arbitration to all three. Meanwhile, Dave Cameron at Fangraphs explained that teams have to weigh the arbitration offer not only against the fair market value of a player but also the probability that he'll accept and what the compensation picks would be worth to the club. While our post on Damon takes into account the value of the draft picks and the fair market value, The Yankee Universe brought up a salient point about the probability of accepting: Boras clients rarely accept arbitration as Boras is hellbent on taking them to market for a multiyear deal. It's unlikely that Damon, who wants a multiyear deal, will accept arbitration and forego his right to free agency. It may be well worth the risk to offer arbitration to Damon; we'll soon find out.

Either way, we're not very far off from business picking up in the Hot Stove League.

Yanks Decline Option On Mitre

Good morning Fackers. Yesterday the Yankees declined their $1.25M 2010 option on pitcher Sergio Mitre. However, this does not necessarily spell the end of Mitre's time with the Yankees. He has not accumulated enough service time to be eligible for free agency, so the Yankees can retain his services by offering him arbitration prior to December 1st.

Last week, Joel Sherman reported that the Yankees intended to keep Mitre but were in the process of determining if his arbitration figure would be less than the value of his option. The organizational meetings began yesterday, and apparently the club wasted little time in determining they stood to pay Mitre less through arbitration. They had until Thursday to make a decision on the option.

I was fairly critical of Mitre as he faltered through his twelve appearances with the Yankees during the second half of last season. However, as the old adage goes, you can't have too much pitching. The front end of the rotation is well set with CC Sabathia, A.J. Burnett, and presumably Andy Pettitte. I'd prefer to see Joba Chamberlain and Phil Hughes occupy the final two slots of the rotation, but the presence of Ian Kennedy, Alfredo Aceves, Mitre, presumably Chad Gaudin, minor league prospects such as Ivan Nova and Zach McAllister, and whatever spring training invitees are in camp will provide needed depth and competition.

While no one will ever confuse Mitre with a Cy Young Award candidate, he has shown signs of promise during his career. By the time next season begins, Mitre will be twenty one months removed from Tommy John Surgery. He made a relatively quick return from the procedure and was likely still finding his way back during his struggles last season. While I don't expect him to make the Yankees out of Spring Training, you never know what could happen with injuries and such. As a sinkerballer, Mitre may be more effective as a reliever, a role which he served for the majority of the 2005 and 2006 seasons.

Arbitration For Damon?

Good morning Fackers. We're more than halfway through November. The free agency signing period opens in full this Friday. However, since the deadline for teams to offer their own free agents arbitration isn't until December 1st, it's unlikely that we'll see any signings before then. Teams that lose free agents prior to the arbitration deadline are automatically entitled to the appropriate draft pick compensation.

We may see a few unclassified free agents sign since they carry no compensation, or a few Type B free agents sign since the signing team does not surrender a draft pick of their own. Generally speaking though, it's the Type A free agents that set the market, and since draft pick compensation for a Type A free agent requires the signing team to surrender their first round draft pick (or second round pick for the teams with the top fifteen picks), it's unlikely that we'll see any Type A's sign - and therefore unlikely that we'll see the market set - until after December 1st.

In baseball's changing economic landscape, extending an arbitration offer isn't the no-brainer it once was. As the U.S. economy nosedived last fall, so too did the market for free agents. The Yankees rightly decided not extend arbitration offers to the likes of Jason Giambi, Bobby Abreu, and even Andy Pettitte, as they stood to earn more in arbitration than they would on the open market. In a similar vein, this fall, baseball insiders - notably Buster Olney - are predicting widespread non-tendering of arbitration eligible players whose likely arbitration raises exceed their value to their club. Such situations have already precipitated the trades of J.J. Hardy by the Brewers and Jeremy Hermida by the Marlins this off-season.

As far as the Yankees are concerned, they have three arbitration decisions to make on their own free agents this year: Type B free agents Xavier Nady and Andy Pettitte, and Type A free agent Johnny Damon.

While Andy Pettitte is almost assured to return and Xavier Nady offers a high risk, high reward proposition at a reasonable price tag, Johnny Damon presents the most interesting case of the three. While Damon has stated his desire to return to the Yankees since early in the season, there have also been rumblings of his wanting a multiyear contract and not affording the Yankees a "hometown discount". How much of that is posturing by Damon and agent Scott Boras remains to be seen.

Ideally, the Yankees would want to sign Damon for a single year, maybe two, at a salary comparable to the two year, $19M extension Bobby Abreu signed with the Angels earlier this month. However, Damon is coming off a outstanding season. There are teams out there with need (Giants) a player like Damon and GM's without the acumen (Brian Sabean) who might offer Damon what he wants both in terms of years and dollars.

By no means should the Yankees cave to such demands on the part of Damon. However, without resigning Damon on their terms, the Yankees are left with a series of less favorable options: play some combination of Cabrera/Gardner/Jackson in LF/CF, make a potentially costly trade for Curtis Granderson or another outfielder, or pursue a big ticket free agent such as Jason Bay or Matt Holiday, both of whom would require a major commitment in terms of both dollars and years.

Thus, it might be a calculated risk for the Yankees to indeed offer arbitration to Damon. While this would be a departure from the tact they took with Abreu last off-season, the Yankees have a need for Damon, whereas last year Abreu would have been a superfluous and expensive part in addition to Damon, Nady, Swisher, and Matsui. Worst case scenario, Damon would accept. This would ensure him a raise on the $13M he made last year, likely leaving him in the neighborhood of $15M-$16M on a one year deal.

This would certainly be more than Damon could get on the open market and likely more than he is worth - but not by much. Fangraphs.com places Damon's value at $13.6M this past season and $16.4M in 2008. Offering him arbitration might force them to pay a small premium for his services, but it's a premium the Yankees could likely afford to absorb. Further, it would assure that they keep Damon's services for a time frame of their choosing, and would give them the added safety net of an additional first round and supplemental round pick should Damon find his multiyear deal elsewhere.

So what do you think? Should the Yankees offer arbitration to Johnny Damon?

Swisher v. Abreu

This morning, Matt did a great job debunking the myth of Bobby Abreu's resurgent season and magical contagious plate discipline out in Anaheim. I also want to chime in on Abreu's production this season, but in relation to his ostensible replacement - another cheap acquisition via trade for the Yankees - Nick Swisher.

Although Xavier Nady was slotted as the starting right fielder and Swisher was supposed to man first base at the time the Yankees declined to offer Abreu arbitration on his $16M 2008 contract, Nady was done for the season by April 14th and Swish ended up getting over 600 plate appearances for the Yanks. Abreu sounded a bit like a spurned lover when talking about the Yankees cutting him loose but the reality is that at the time $16M was far too much to offer a corner outfielder with limited range when the market are held players like Raul Ibanez, Adam Dunn, Milton Bradley and Pat Burrell - even before taking into account the state of the baseball economy.

The decision made itself. The Angels waited out Abreu's attempts at a large, multi-year deal and got great value on highly productive hitter. Meanwhile, the Yankees signed Mark Teixeira and Swish ended up taking Abreu's place in right field of the New Yankee Stadium. They made essentially the same amount of money in 2009, so who got the better player?

Both guys love to work the count and put up solid OBPs, but that's pretty much where their similarities end. Let's take a look at the numbers (bold print represents an advantage):

A cursory look at the basic stats would give the nod to Abreu. His batting average is far higher than Swisher's and he batted in 14 21 more runs while stealing 30 bases.

However, while Abreu complied 41 more hits than Swisher, he actually had 14 fewer go for extra bases. The OBP advantage goes to Abreu, but more importantly, the slugging crown is Swish's by a wide margin. The home run totals are skewed by the New Yankee Stadium (although Swish only hit 8 at home), but not so much that Abreu would have hit twice as many there.

Abreu batted either second or third in the Angels' line up while Swisher was typically hitting somewhere between 6th and 8th for the Yankees, which explains the difference in RBIs. The 30 stolen bases at a 78% success rate do represent a major advantage for Abreu, but adding those 22 net total bases to Abreu's total isn't enough counteract Swisher's advantage in slugging percentage while subtracting the 8 times on base brings with OBPs closer together.

Usually, you would expect the guy who is a better base stealer to have the advantage in fielding as well, but that's not the case in this scenario. Swish didn't even attempt to steal a base all year long but still was better, or should I say "not as bad" as Abreu in right field.

Mainly on the strength of defense and power, Swisher had a higher value for the Yankees this year. Since Abreu hit all the plate appearance-based incentives in his contract this year, it means that Swish was the cheaper option by about $700,000 as well.

Both teams made out very well, but for different reasons. Swisher was cost controlled because of the deal he signed buying out his arbitration years and Abreu's contract was one of the most team-friendly in a historic buyer's market. The Yanks got an average fielding slugger while the Angels got a singles-raking base stealer. And with the teams meeting in the ALCS, I don't think there are too many regrets with how this scenario played out.

Yanks Settle With Nady

First from MLBTR, The Yanks avoided going to arbitration with Xavier Nady by settling with him for $6.55M. PeteAbe points out that he nearly doubled up his salary. It's a little higher than most of the estimates I heard before, but no so much that it will affect his trade value.

Good for you, X. You rode that extremely high BABIP you had last year into the best season of your career. Your .305 batting average was .25 higher than your next closest season. Your OPS+ was 128, 19 points greater than any other year. Unfortunately for the team you end up playing for, you're probably coming back down to earth in 2009.

[Update: 6:45] Melky Cabrera has also settled with the Yanks for $1.4M. Only Brian Bruney remains.

Cashman Crossing T's, Dotting I's

Benjamin Disraeli once said, "It is easier to be critical than right." Ironically, when ripping on Peter Abraham's pinch hitter, I was also doing it in the "easiest, laziest" way possible. In light of this, here are a few points I'd like to make in favor of moves Cashman has made this offseason.

Lost in the juxtaposition of Yankees' splashy free agent acquisitions and the general timidity with which GM's around the league have approached this offseason, has been Brian Cashman's attention to detail. Sure, Cashman has financial resources that other GM's do not, but he's also paying attention to the little things just as much as an executive of a small or mid-market team would.

Remember this move? The Yankees sold the rights to Darrell Rasner to the Tohoku Rakuten Golden Eagles of the Japanese Pacific League for $1M. Aside from that cool million, the Yankees are off the hook for Rasner's salary (maybe another $500K?). The move also works out nicely for Rasner, who also has a chance to make up to three times what his salary would have been if he stayed in the MLB and will have a chance to pitch against weaker hitters than in the AL East. I think Cashman realized that it would be better for both parties to ship Rasner to the Pacific Rim, and saved a million and a half bones in the process. At a time when the Red Sox broke some unwritten rules and signed Junichi Tazawa, Cashman has maintained a more amicable relationship with Japan.

In trading for Nick Swisher, Cash picked up an underrated guy coming off of a terrible season for marginal bench guy Wilson Betemit, and B-level minor league prospects Jeff Marquez and Johnny Nunez. A corollary to this, I believe, is that proclaiming Swisher as their starting first baseman, quieted the "Teixeira To Yanks!" rumors enough for them to swoop in at the last minute, under nearly every one's radar.

Cashman also declined to offer arbitration to Andy Pettitte, Bobby Abreu and Pudge Rodriguez before it was apparent just how far teams would cut back spending this year. If they had offered arbitration to any of those players, they all almost certainly would have accepted, leaving the Yanks with too many catchers or outfielders or Andy Pettitte for over $16M. A less conscientious GM might not have gauged the market correctly, leaving the Yanks with untrade-ably expensive spare parts.

When Cashman signed his 3 year $6M extension at the end of September and went on the New York talk radio circuit, he had an edge in his voice. It seemed like he was out to correct the public perception that because of the massive payroll, anyone could GM the Yanks.

I think he's the perfect, and possibly the only guy for the job. Cashman is entrenched in the organization (an employee since he was 19) and has shown the ability to manage the sometimes unwieldy undercurrents of the front office. Do you think a new GM could have understood the complicated dynamics existing between Hal, Hank, an aging George and Randy Levine (more on him soon) quickly enough to get as much accomplished as they have this offseason? I would tend to think not.