The Return Of Nick The Stick

Good morning, Fackers. It appears as though the Yankees are close to signing Nick Johnson to a one year, $5.5M deal. Johnson can play exactly one position, first base, and since Mark Teixeira is as much of an everyday player as there is on the team, it looks like Johnson - health permitting - will be a more or less full time designated hitter. Apparently the Yanks weren't so intent on rotating the DH slot to their aging players after all.

With a career OBP of .402 (.426 over the last three years), Johnson is a powerful offensive asset who sees lots of pitches, has excellent strike zone discipline and hits left handed pitching well (.440 OBP against LHP last year) despite being left handed himself. Sticking a guy like that in the 2 hole - in front of Teixeira and A-Rod - is going to lead to a significant increase in RBI opportunities for those two. Nick the Stick's power has declined over the past three seasons (SLG .520, .431, .402), but it would be reasonable to assume that Yankee Stadium would help in that capacity.

The most obvious knock on Johnson is that he's injury prone, suffering ailments ranging from stress fractures in his hand to a fractured cheek bone to a broken femur to back problems to torn ligaments in his wrist. As a result, he has appeared in an average of only 93 games over the past 8 years (including the 2007 season, which he missed entirely). Conventional wisdom says that stashing him away at DH would help prevent injuries, but that's far from a guarantee.

It would have been nice to bring Johnny Damon back but that seems very unlikely if the deal for Johnson goes through. He was asking the Yankees for twice as much money as Johnson over a contract three times as long. Sure, the fact that Damon is able to play the outfield would have increased the flexibility of the roster, but if other players really need a day off, there isn't a good reason that Joe Girardi can't just give Johnson a rest.

As far as Hideki Matsui goes, I think Johnson is a better fit for the Yankees offense. Granted, they both provide next to nothing defensively, but at the plate, they are very similar. Johnson has a career wOBA of .371 and was at .373 last year. Those numbers for Matsui are .367 and .378, respectively. However, Matsui's numbers are predicated on power (which is volatile) while Johnson relies on the more stable on OBP.

I'd rather have someone with a gaudy OBP who A-Rod and Teix will continually have the opportunity to drive in than another, lesser power hitter behind them. Both Matsui and Johnson are injury prone, but the former suffers from chronic knee injuries that are only getting worse while Johnson seems to have been afflicted with more random and flukey ailments.

For what it's worth, Johnson was $1M cheaper than Matsui and it might have been more. As Brian Cashman noted in reference to Bobby Abreu, a player is less likely to take a pay cut from their former employer than from another team.

I don't want to hear about the money that Matsui makes for the organization over in Japan, because that's the team's problem, not the fans'. Who cares how popular the Yankees on the opposite side of the world? We don't benefit from the money they make over there. The fact that Matsui has performed well in the postseason is great, but there's no guarantee that he'll repeat that performance next time around.

Overall, I like this move for the Yankees. It carries limited risk and if Johnson can grind out his usual production for 500 or so plate appearances, he will be a tremendous asset to the line up.

Welcome Back, Andy

It's like he never left.

Andy Pettitte is coming back to the Bronx on a one year contract worth $11.75M with no incentives. This comes as no surprise both in terms of the dollar value and the fact that the deal got done. It was only a matter of time but it's nice to have it finalized.

Pettitte finished 2009 strong - as in starting the clinching game of the World Series strong - unlike in 2008 when his shoulder bothered him down the stretch. He actually made one fewer start this year than last, but had a 3.31 ERA in the second half and pitched well into the postseason, overcoming his struggles at the New Yankee Stadium. As such, the Yankees were obliged to guarantee him the money up front instead of load the contract with incentives. Seems fair to me.

With the two moves the Yankees have completed in the past 24 hours, they have made great strides towards solidifying the team for the 2010 season if you assume Joba and Hughes are filling in the 4th and 5th starter roles and Granderson is aimed for LF. While the bullpen seems a little barren and they could certainly use a DH and possibly a platoon partner for Granderson, the holes are closing and the team is starting to take shape. I'm sure Cash & Co. aren't done yet, but they are a lot further along than they were this time yesterday.

The Many Facets Of The Billy Wagner Signing

As was reported this morning, the Atlanta Braves signed Billy Wagner to a $7M deal with a $6.5M option that vests if he finishes 50 games in 2010. Wagner is no spring chicken - he'll turn 39 next July - and he only pitched 15 2/3 Major League innings since returning from Tommy John surgery in 2009. Granted, he was effective in those innings, but signing him carries a great deal of risk. It's not the deal itself that makes the Braves acquisition interesting, though; it's what it took to get to this point and what will also change hands as a result (and the fact that the Mets screwed themselves).

If you'll recall, the Mets traded Wagner to the Red Sox after only two appearances following his return from injury for (at the time) two players to be named later. It seemed as though the Red Sox were shoring up their bullpen for the stretch run and postseason, but in retrospect it seems that Theo Epstein had a little something more up his sleeve.

One of those PTBNL was a 26 year old minor league first baseman/outfielder named Chris Carter. In six MiLB seasons, Carter had a batting line of .306/.380/.510, but only sniffed the Majors because of the Fackin' Youkstah occupying 1B and several very capable (and expensive) players taking up the corners of the outfield. However, given the absence of Carlos Delgado and the struggles of David Murphy on the Mets, he would have been a useful piece and figured to get his first taste of regular season playing time in the Bigs.

Carter was on the 40 man roster of the Sox and in order for him to be included in the trade (since it occurred after the non-waiver deadline of July 31st) he had to pass through waivers (one of the reasons teams rarely send back players on the 40 man in waiver deals). Unfortunately for him, the Yankees placed a waiver claim on Carter and denied him the MLB at bats that he must have so badly desired. Since the Red Sox decided they needed that 40 man roster spot for pitcher Dustin Richardson (who pitched 3.1 innings for them this year), they DFA'd Carter, at which point any team could have claimed him - even the Mets, which would have forced the Sox to include someone else an additional player in the deal - but no one did.

So at the conclusion of the season, Carter returned to the Sox and, in addition to Eddie Lora, a 20 year old first baseman still in the Gulf Coast League, was sent to the Mets and the deal was completed.

When the Sox acquired Wagner, he asked them to agree that they would not exercise his $8M option for 2010 in hopes that he could close somewhere else. The Sox agreed to that term, but

were still allowed to offer him arbitration.

In a perfect world, Wagner would have been a Type B or unclassified free agent since he only pitched in 17 games last year, but since the Elias Rankings take previous years into consideration, he attained Type A status. As a result, when the Sox offered him arbitration, he turned it down and now they will likely receive the Braves 20th overall pick in addition to a supplemental rounder. Since the Sox are looking for a second baseman or shortstop (depending on whether Dustin Pedroia actually changes positions) it could lessen the burden of picking up a player like Marco Scutaro, who would cost the Sox a first round pick as our buddy Jason points out.

The Braves are not all that concerned about giving up their first round pick since they actually have two Type A free agents of their own hitting the marketplace - Rafael Soriano and Mike Gonzalez - and figure that one or both are likely to decline the arbitration offers from the Braves and sign elsewhere. They surrendered their first rounder, but signed a pitcher who could very well fill the role of closer and doubled down with a team-friendly option if Wagner performs well this year.

The Sox got one of the highest draft picks you can receive in free agent compensation (#20, since the top 15 are protected) if the Braves don't sign a higher-ranking free agent and a supplemental rounder in exchange for a spare part and a Rookie League first baseman.

And what about the Mets? They ended up with Chris Carter, who could be a somewhat useful piece on their team next year, although at 27 he has limited upside, and Eddie Lora, who is light years away from the MLB.

Did Omar Minaya overlook the draft pick compensation system when he dealt Wagner on the cheap? Did Theo Epstein have it in mind when he acquired him? I can't help but think the Sox made out like bandits here.

Enough With The Mauer Speculation, Already

That's what Mike Vaccarro is saying, except, since he works for the Post, he's speculating anyway.

Hell, the Yankees have never been shy about raiding their foes. They took Tommy John away from the Dodgers, took Luis Tiant and Johnny Damon and Wade Boggs away from the Red Sox, took Jason Giambi away from the A's after he nearly wrecked them by himself a couple of times in the playoffs. Until they announce they're out with Mauer, they always will be in, and that's an awfully enticing thought.

Are people really "yearning" for Joe Mauer as Vaccarro also says in the article? Giving out another $200M contract or whatever it's going to take to sign Joe Mauer isn't enticing to me at all. The guy is an incredibly great player - a catcher with 3 batting titles, who's just starting to hit for power - but can we keep it in our pants for once?

The Yanks are in the middle of a postseason run and people are speculating about who they are going to sign two fucking years from now? There will be plenty of cold winter months to dream about Joe Mauer or Felix Hernandez or a bunch of other ridiculously expensive marquee players that the Yanks have been developing their farm system specifically to avoid signing.

That's why the Yanks have spent top 10 picks on catchers like John Murphy, Kyle Higashioka, Austin Romine and Chase Weems (although they traded Weems for Jerry Hairston, Jr.) and signed Jesus Montero and Gary Sanchez and high upside arms Andrew Brackman, Gerrit Cole, Phil Hughes, Joba, Dellin Betances and Brett Marshall. The Yanks can spend big money on free agents, but would much rather not have to.

Sorry Mike, smart Yanks fans know we got our presents this year. They were the contracts given to Sabathia, Teixeira, Burnett and less recently, A-Rod. Derek Jeter's gonna need a new one after next year. Cano is due to make $14 and $15M in 2012 and 2013, respectively and the organization is going to want to cut payroll if at all possible. We can think about the future during the offseason, right now, we're just enjoying the moment.

Game 32: Hello Old Friend

Back in 2005, the Blue Jays committed $55M over five years to a pitcher with a great arm, but a spotty injury history and a 49-50 career record. That pitcher was A.J. Burnett. After a taking a his sixth consecutive loss of the 2005 season on September 25th, Burnett had been asked to leave the team after  making critical comments about the coaching staff and teammates. None of  the potential negatives quelled the optimism manager John Gibbons and G.M. J.P. Richardi had when Toronto signed him:

"He's got one of the best arms in baseball," Toronto manager John Gibbons said. "On any given night, he can shut out. I just think he'll fit in perfect."

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"We think we've done our homework," Riccardi said. "We looked at his age, being so young. I don't think we'd get involved with someone even in his mid-30s." 

Although you won't find many Blue Jay fans that agree with these calculations, according to FanGraphs, they got their money's worth. Despite making only 46 starts in his first two seasons in Toronto, F-G says Burnett was worth $11.4M and $11.8M in 2006 & 2007, respectively. Last year, he took the mound 35 times, and although he had a 4.07ERA on an 86 win team, won 18 games and was worth $25.5M. That works out to a total of $48.7M, whereas he was paid roughly $32M over that time. 

After he leveraged the best season of his career and opted to become a free agent, the Yankees signed Burnett, now three years older to the same five year commitment (except with no player opt-outs), but for $27.5M more. The manager and he G.M. this time: 

"We got the two gentlemen we really wanted," Yankees manager Joe Girardi said. "I'm proud to say they're Yankees."

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"The one thing that I think today represents is just another example of that we're going to keep swinging for the fences," Cashman said. "We're going to keep trying. We're going to keep finding people and the right circumstances for a group that can make it happen."

So far this season, like he has been in much of his career, Burnett has been inconsistent. He has shown flashes of brilliance, like when he carried a no-hitter into the 7th inning against the Rays, but was also slapped around to the tune of 8ER in 5 innings in Boston. In six starts he has accumulated an ERA of 5.26 and been tagged for 6HR or 1.4/9IP, the highest rate of his career. Three of those dingers have come at home and three on the road in an equal proportion of starts, so he can't use the New Stadium as an excuse. He's yet to give up fewer than two runs in a start, and tonight, as he returns home to face his old team, might be a good night to break that trend. 

Starting tonight for Toronto will be consummate ace and perennial Cy Young candidate, Roy Halladay. Primarily because he hasn't pitched fewer than 7 innings in a game this year, Halladay has received a decision in every game, going 6-1 in 7 tries. At 3.29, his ERA isn't incredible, but combined with the duration of his outings, he is an incredibly valuable commodity.

The two starters tonight got along well when they were teammates and Burnett credits much of his success in Toronto to being in the rotation with two-time Cy Young Award winner: 

The main thing I gathered from [Halladay] is preparation and focus. I never really watched videos or paid that much attention until I got around him. He's locked into every game when he's not pitching. I try to do that when I'm not pitching also.

This talk of the improved work ethic was one of the major reasons that Brian Cashman swooped in and outbid the Braves for Burnett's services. 

It will be interesting to see how Burnett is received tonight. He was given a standing ovation when he left the mound in his last start in Toronto last year, after shutting down the Yankees to the tune of 2 runs over 8 innings. Somehow, I don't think the fact that he will be returning in Yankees' road grays is going to go over too well with the Blue Jay faithful.

This version is from The Old Grey Whistle Test

Hello old friend (hello old friend)
It's really good to see you once again (hello old friend)

Cause For Concern?

Tim Dierkes of MLBTR came out with a list of free agents who are off to a poor start this year. Don't worry, the Yankees only have $435.5M worth of commitments to guys on the list:

• Mark Teixeira, Yankees: .206/.363/.381 in 80 plate appearances.  This contract runs through 2016, so it's barely begun.
• C.C. Sabathia, Yankees: 4.73 ERA in 32.3 innings.  So far we haven't seen the expected walk and strikeout rates.  This one runs through 2015.
• A.J. Burnett, Yankees: 5.47 ERA in 24.6 innings.  Home runs and walks have been the problem so far.  He's signed through 2013.
• Damaso Marte, Yankees: 15.19 ERA in 5.3 innings.  Signed through 2011.
  

I'd agree that they all belong on this list, but allow me to offer up some homeristic justifications/excuses for their poor starts.

• We were all told that Teixeira is a slow starter because he's a switch hitter and needs time to get both of his swings in order. His defense has been great. I'll start taking calls in a couple weeks. 
  
  
• Sabathia's ERA is only slightly higher than his career average in April (4.73 to 4.54). While not being terribly effective he has averaged over 6 1/3 IP per start. His K/BB ratio is somewhat alarming, but that has traditionally improved for him as the season progressed as well. 
  
  
• Burnett's ERA before Saturday's game against the Sox? 3.20. Early in the season, 8ER in one start is going to skew an ERA pretty wildy. 
   
• Damaso Marte... Um, he like, used to be good and stuff. 5 1/3 innings is a very small sample size, and he has looked good at times. The Yankees have options in their bullpen, and even if Damaso Marte turns out to be a horrible signing, it's not the worst thing in the world. It's $4M a year. 

Are any of these guys really worrying you at this point? Feel free to vent in the comments. Except for you, Anon.