Jays Jettison Rios

Since the Jays are in town and this move effects both the White Sox' playoff chances this year and the direction of the Blue Jays going forward, I figured I would take some time to examine the decision to acquire Yankee Killer Alex Rios off the waiver wire by the White Sox.

Coupled with the Jake Peavy trade, ChiSox GM Kenny Williams has taken on roughly $115M in future salary over the past two weeks. The Sox are one game over .500, so they don't figure to factor into the Wild Card mix, but are still just 3 games in back of the Tigers in the AL Central. Peavy is still on the disabled list and won't make his first minor league start until later this week at the earliest so he probably won't make more than 4 or 5 starts for the Big League club before the end of the regular season.

Rios', on the other hand, will make an immediate impact if used optimally. In his career with the Jays, Rios has primarily held down RF while Vernon Wells played CF. Jermaine Dye and Carlos Quentin are holding down the starting corner outfield jobs for the Sox, which would be a problem were it not for the fact that Rios is a more than capable CF as well. He's much better than Wells, actually. In 106 games in CF, Rios has a UZR/150 of 12.8 whereas Wells' is -6.8. The Sox started Ken Griffey, Jr. in CF for 32 games last year, so they obviously aren't too concerned with shifting someone from a corner spot to center.

Considering the meager production the Sox are getting out of their current center fielders (.224/.281/.313), Rios' line of .264/.338/.383 is a significant upgrade, even before you consider the boost he'll be getting from playing at US Cellular Field. He's also a base stealing threat with 32 last year and 19 already this season.

Despite being in his physical prime at 28 years old, Rios is having a down year, which is the major reason the Blue Jays decided to let the White Sox walk away with him for nothing more than the required $20,000 transfer fee. The two teams engaged in negotiations before the trade deadline, meaning the Sox would have actually had to give up something at that point, but they waited it out, were the only team to make a waiver claim and got him for essentially nothing.

From the Blue Jays' perspective, they shed a major chunk of salary (not the one they really wanted to, though), but also parted with Rios at his lowest value thus far in his career. Even still, he will come close to equaling his contract value this year and has far exceeded even the $12.5M he is due in 2014 in both 2007 and 2008 according to FanGraphs. And those numbers calculate his value mostly as a RF, not a CF.

Does this move foreshadow a Roy Halladay trade this offseason? Dumping a productive player with a long term deal like Rios for salary reasons and getting nothing in return doesn't exactly signal the desire to compete now. This is a step beyond the Scott Rolen move. By dealing Halladay, they could save themselves a significant amount of money and net some good prospects in return, if they are indeed moving towards rebuilding. I'd be willing to be that the Jays would have tried harder to find a place for Halladay if they knew they could dump Rios after the deadline.

It's possible that Rios' offensive production will continue to decline and the Jays are thrilled with their decision in a few years, but I think it's more likely that they watch him become a solid contributor for the White Sox and regret the fact that it made financial sense at the time to get rid of him. If Rios were to hit the free agent market this offseason, he almost surely wouldn't get the kind of contract he is signed to, but the way that the baseball economy moves from here through 2014 could make the deal look very shrewd or very foolish on either side.

Why Would J.P. Ricciardi Want Everyone Talking About Roy Halladay?

To draw some attention away from this, perhaps?

The Blue Jays have released B.J. Ryan, according to MLB.com's Jordan Bastian. The 33-year-old lefty signed a five year $47MM deal with the Jays before the 2006 season that was, at the time, the largest deal ever for a reliever. The contract expires after 2010, but the Jays still owe Ryan about $15MM.

"Hey guys, talk about the best player on my team for a while as I try to sweep a disastrous free agent signing under the rug!"

At the time the Jays signed Ryan to that deal, it was the largest ever to be given to a relief pitcher. He was only 29 years old, but as Joe from RAB mentioned a little while ago, some of the more knowledgeable voices in baseball saw his elbow as a ticking time bomb. Joe goes into more detail about how the market for relievers played out that offseason, with Billy Wagner ending up with the Mets, Ryan signing with the Jays, Tom Gordon going to the Phillies, thereby leaving the Yanks with Kyle Farnsworth.

In 2006, the Jays got even more than they expected, and Ryan was the best of those four relievers by far. He appeared in 65 games (72.1 IP) with a 1.37 ERA (333 ERA+) and a 0.875 WHIP. He gave up only 3HR and while converting 38 saves. The following year, he pitched in 5 games before missing the rest of the season Tommy John surgery. He came back in '08 with a respectable campaign (58 innings, 2.95 ERA, 32 Saves) and appeared to be an effective reliever once again.

This year, however, he fell so far that the Blue Jays paid him $15M just to disappear, conceding any potential value they could get out of him this year or next. He walked 17 in 20 2/3 innings, had an ERA of 6.53 and threw just over 50% of his pitches for strikes. This doesn't appear to be guy who just needs a change of scenery; he might be done for good. By virtue of who he was, though, it's likely that a team will take a flier on Ryan.

Fangraphs estimates that the Jays have got $10.8M out of Ryan's 2006 season, only slightly more than 1/5th of his contract represented ($9.4M). Since then the Jays will have revieved only $1.4M worth of services over the last four years of that contract (including -$0.7M in 2007, -$2.2M this year and nothing in 2010) while paying $38.6M. Ouch.

Praise be to Mo.

Game 32: Hello Old Friend

Back in 2005, the Blue Jays committed $55M over five years to a pitcher with a great arm, but a spotty injury history and a 49-50 career record. That pitcher was A.J. Burnett. After a taking a his sixth consecutive loss of the 2005 season on September 25th, Burnett had been asked to leave the team after  making critical comments about the coaching staff and teammates. None of  the potential negatives quelled the optimism manager John Gibbons and G.M. J.P. Richardi had when Toronto signed him:

"He's got one of the best arms in baseball," Toronto manager John Gibbons said. "On any given night, he can shut out. I just think he'll fit in perfect."

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"We think we've done our homework," Riccardi said. "We looked at his age, being so young. I don't think we'd get involved with someone even in his mid-30s." 

Although you won't find many Blue Jay fans that agree with these calculations, according to FanGraphs, they got their money's worth. Despite making only 46 starts in his first two seasons in Toronto, F-G says Burnett was worth $11.4M and $11.8M in 2006 & 2007, respectively. Last year, he took the mound 35 times, and although he had a 4.07ERA on an 86 win team, won 18 games and was worth $25.5M. That works out to a total of $48.7M, whereas he was paid roughly $32M over that time. 

After he leveraged the best season of his career and opted to become a free agent, the Yankees signed Burnett, now three years older to the same five year commitment (except with no player opt-outs), but for $27.5M more. The manager and he G.M. this time: 

"We got the two gentlemen we really wanted," Yankees manager Joe Girardi said. "I'm proud to say they're Yankees."

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"The one thing that I think today represents is just another example of that we're going to keep swinging for the fences," Cashman said. "We're going to keep trying. We're going to keep finding people and the right circumstances for a group that can make it happen."

So far this season, like he has been in much of his career, Burnett has been inconsistent. He has shown flashes of brilliance, like when he carried a no-hitter into the 7th inning against the Rays, but was also slapped around to the tune of 8ER in 5 innings in Boston. In six starts he has accumulated an ERA of 5.26 and been tagged for 6HR or 1.4/9IP, the highest rate of his career. Three of those dingers have come at home and three on the road in an equal proportion of starts, so he can't use the New Stadium as an excuse. He's yet to give up fewer than two runs in a start, and tonight, as he returns home to face his old team, might be a good night to break that trend. 

Starting tonight for Toronto will be consummate ace and perennial Cy Young candidate, Roy Halladay. Primarily because he hasn't pitched fewer than 7 innings in a game this year, Halladay has received a decision in every game, going 6-1 in 7 tries. At 3.29, his ERA isn't incredible, but combined with the duration of his outings, he is an incredibly valuable commodity.

The two starters tonight got along well when they were teammates and Burnett credits much of his success in Toronto to being in the rotation with two-time Cy Young Award winner: 

The main thing I gathered from [Halladay] is preparation and focus. I never really watched videos or paid that much attention until I got around him. He's locked into every game when he's not pitching. I try to do that when I'm not pitching also.

This talk of the improved work ethic was one of the major reasons that Brian Cashman swooped in and outbid the Braves for Burnett's services. 

It will be interesting to see how Burnett is received tonight. He was given a standing ovation when he left the mound in his last start in Toronto last year, after shutting down the Yankees to the tune of 2 runs over 8 innings. Somehow, I don't think the fact that he will be returning in Yankees' road grays is going to go over too well with the Blue Jay faithful.

This version is from The Old Grey Whistle Test

Hello old friend (hello old friend)
It's really good to see you once again (hello old friend)