Game 134: Small Axe

Tonight, the Yanks begin another series against a bird-named division rival. The four game set with the Blue Jays will cap off their 7 game road trip and the Yanks need only to take one game for it to be a winning one after sweeping the O's. When the Yanks return home they will see both of these teams again, closing out their season series against them during a 10 game homestand in the Bronx.

After leading the division as late as May 23rd and being 8 games over .500, the Blue Jays have faded 14 games under and 25 1/2 back. They are currently twice as close in the standings to the Orioles than the Rays... and that's never a good thing. Even our optimistically-named pal eyebleaf is having a hard time stomaching the downward spiral and it's tough to blame him.

Roy Halladay wasn't traded, which should have made most Jays fans happy, but due to his poor performance since the deadline and the erosion of the time left on his contract, his value is steadily decreasing for what is looking more and more like an inevitable trade this offseason. Alex Rios is gone and in return, the club got salary relief which theoretically could be used in the future, but the fans got a heaping helping of nothing for now. We don't even need to talk about Vernon Wells.

However, tonight's starter for the Jays, Ricky Romero has been one of the remaining bright spots on the team. The 24 year old rookie lefty has pitched 136.2 innings, struck out 104, is averaging 6 innings per start, has a 3.95 ERA and a 11-6 record, behind only Halladay in those categories. The Yanks have seen him twice this year and he's earned a win and a no-decision by pitching 6 & 6 1/3 innings and giving up 3 runs each time.

Chad Gaudin will be making his second start as a Yankee today. He had a rather odd start his other time out, facing another one of his former teams, the A's. Gaudin gave up no runs, and onyl one hit in 4 1/3 innings, but walked 5 and saw his pitch count quickly escalate, finishing with 90. Gaudin didn't get the win, but the Yankees did. It's hard to expect a whole lot out of Gaudin today and logic dictates that his pitch count will be limited once again. But the bullpen is deep with call ups and waiting to back him up.

Gaudin was one of the minor moves Brian Cashman executed this season and I discussed earlier today; just a small solution to a seemingly big problem.

So if you are the big tree,
We are the small axe,
Ready to cut you down (well sharp),
Sharpened to cut you down.

I'll Show You Overpaid...

I'm going to single Joel Sherman out here, but he is just stating a general sentiment that I've heard in several other places the most unequivocally (emphasis mine):

But, at this moment, Peavy has a foot injury and Rios is one of the most overpaid players in the majors. The risk is huge -- and fascinating.

"At this moment"? Alex Rios is making $5.9M in salary in 2009, which pro-rated for 112 games equates to $4.3M, and has already been worth $4.9 to the Blue Jays. He's actually slightly overpaid. And in general, saying a player who makes $6M is "one of the most overpaid players in the majors" is like ripping someone for driving a Jeep for getting bad gas mileage. Is it great? No, but let's look at the supercharged H1 Hummer parked directly next door.

Even if you are talking about Rios' value going forward, you could do a lot worse than paying a guy capable of playing a strong center field with a career OPS of .786 who steals about 20 bases per year an average of $11.75M over the next 5 seasons. For instance you could be giving $18M to Vernon Wells who can't play center and is putting up a .717 OPS to Rios' .744 this year, under the exact same circumstances.

It's not Rios' fault that the Blue Jays left him in right field because Wells and his reprehensible contract were blocking him in center, where he could have created the most value. Wells, by the way has been worth negative $3.6M to the Blue Jays this year according to FanGraphs, while making $18M.

Using this methodology, I've compiled a short, non-comprehensive list of MLB position players who, like Wells and unlike Rios actually are overpaid:

[values are extrapolated to a full season to match annual salaries,

all #'s via Cot's MLB Contracts and FanGraphs are in millions]

The guys with negative value get screwed by the extrapolation, because it multiplies their negative value, but you get the idea. Vernon Wells is the most overpaid position player in the MLB and it's only close because Jose Guillen (who actually apologized for sucking so badly) is even worse. Apparently the stank of his contract is rubbing off on the man to his left on defense.

This isn't to say that the Blue Jays handled Rios' contract well, even if he is currently appropriately valued. As Keith Law points out, they made a mistake with Alex Rios, whether it was overpaying for him initally or giving him away for free yesterday.

Jays Jettison Rios

Since the Jays are in town and this move effects both the White Sox' playoff chances this year and the direction of the Blue Jays going forward, I figured I would take some time to examine the decision to acquire Yankee Killer Alex Rios off the waiver wire by the White Sox.

Coupled with the Jake Peavy trade, ChiSox GM Kenny Williams has taken on roughly $115M in future salary over the past two weeks. The Sox are one game over .500, so they don't figure to factor into the Wild Card mix, but are still just 3 games in back of the Tigers in the AL Central. Peavy is still on the disabled list and won't make his first minor league start until later this week at the earliest so he probably won't make more than 4 or 5 starts for the Big League club before the end of the regular season.

Rios', on the other hand, will make an immediate impact if used optimally. In his career with the Jays, Rios has primarily held down RF while Vernon Wells played CF. Jermaine Dye and Carlos Quentin are holding down the starting corner outfield jobs for the Sox, which would be a problem were it not for the fact that Rios is a more than capable CF as well. He's much better than Wells, actually. In 106 games in CF, Rios has a UZR/150 of 12.8 whereas Wells' is -6.8. The Sox started Ken Griffey, Jr. in CF for 32 games last year, so they obviously aren't too concerned with shifting someone from a corner spot to center.

Considering the meager production the Sox are getting out of their current center fielders (.224/.281/.313), Rios' line of .264/.338/.383 is a significant upgrade, even before you consider the boost he'll be getting from playing at US Cellular Field. He's also a base stealing threat with 32 last year and 19 already this season.

Despite being in his physical prime at 28 years old, Rios is having a down year, which is the major reason the Blue Jays decided to let the White Sox walk away with him for nothing more than the required $20,000 transfer fee. The two teams engaged in negotiations before the trade deadline, meaning the Sox would have actually had to give up something at that point, but they waited it out, were the only team to make a waiver claim and got him for essentially nothing.

From the Blue Jays' perspective, they shed a major chunk of salary (not the one they really wanted to, though), but also parted with Rios at his lowest value thus far in his career. Even still, he will come close to equaling his contract value this year and has far exceeded even the $12.5M he is due in 2014 in both 2007 and 2008 according to FanGraphs. And those numbers calculate his value mostly as a RF, not a CF.

Does this move foreshadow a Roy Halladay trade this offseason? Dumping a productive player with a long term deal like Rios for salary reasons and getting nothing in return doesn't exactly signal the desire to compete now. This is a step beyond the Scott Rolen move. By dealing Halladay, they could save themselves a significant amount of money and net some good prospects in return, if they are indeed moving towards rebuilding. I'd be willing to be that the Jays would have tried harder to find a place for Halladay if they knew they could dump Rios after the deadline.

It's possible that Rios' offensive production will continue to decline and the Jays are thrilled with their decision in a few years, but I think it's more likely that they watch him become a solid contributor for the White Sox and regret the fact that it made financial sense at the time to get rid of him. If Rios were to hit the free agent market this offseason, he almost surely wouldn't get the kind of contract he is signed to, but the way that the baseball economy moves from here through 2014 could make the deal look very shrewd or very foolish on either side.

This Just In: You Can't Win Them All

[Photos via]

Well, it happened. The Yanks lost, but it wasn't because they came out flat, or played sloppily or couldn't score runs. The one person to blame for tonight's loss, and I know that there are a lot of people who were involved, was Sergio Mitre, and he played no part in the Red Sox series.

The starting rotation's weakest link actually started out remarkably well, striking out six of the first 7 batters he faced. In his previous four starts Mitre had only struck out 9. Derek Jeter gave him a small cushion to work with by leading off the bottom of the first with a home run, but Mitre gave it back in the 3rd on a homer by Aaron Hill that bounced off the top of the wall in front of the opposing bullpen. Jeter scored again in the home half of the 3rd on a sac fly by Swisher to give the Yankees the lead, but Mitre once again faltered.

The turning point of the game came in the top of the 4th. After Lyle Overbay walked and Vernon Wells singled, Jose Bautista came to the plate with men on first and second. He hit a sharp bouncer back to Mitre, who made a beautiful snare and looked to be in position to turn a double play. Instead, he hesitated for a moment, took a few steps up the mound and fired a throw towards Robinson Cano standing at second. The throw started tailing towards first base and with the runner bearing down and perhaps with the double play in mind, Cano briefly took his eye off the ball. It glanced off his glove and rolled past, allowing Overbay to score and Wells to move to third.

Instead of having at least one and possibly two outs, the Yanks now had no one out, one run in with runners on the corners. The error was initially charged to Robinson Cano but then transferred to Mitre. The Jays brought Wells and Bautista around to score before the inning was over and took the lead 4-1.

As was the signature of the series with the Red Sox, the Yankees responded to the Jays immediately, as they had done in the 3rd. Robinson Cano led off the inning with a blast to right center which was followed by Jerry Hairston's first round tripper as a Yankee. Marc Rzcepczynski lasted on 3 1/3 innings and gave up four runs, but was never on the hook for the loss due to Mitre's shortcomings.

Lyle Overbay hit a two out solo shot in the fifth inning that would prove to be the difference in the game. With the count full, Mitre left a sinker in the fat part of the plate and Overbay pummeled it, just short of the right field bleachers.

The Yanks led off the 6th and 7th with hits, but just couldn't seem to level the score. To begin the 8th inning, Jorge Posada engaged with a 12 pitch battle with Jesse Carlson, which ended on Posada swinging through a slider the third time in a row Carlson had thrown it. Hideki Matsui singled in the 9th but that was the end of the Yanks' offense for the night.

While the Jays cycled through four relievers to close out the game without allowing another run, the Yanks needed only one. Blog favorite Alfredo Aceves notched only one strikeout in the four innings but he allowed just two hits and didn't walk anyone. According to ESPN radio after the game, Joe Girardi said that Mitre will make his next start, which may or may not prevent the speculation that Aceves was being stretched out to start.

A loss is always bad, especially when the Red Sox win, but tonight wasn't especially brutal. The Yanks had some chances but didn't capitalize against the Jays' pen. With the Yanks' relievers having been so lights out recently, it was only a matter of time before the tables were turned on them.