This Just In: You Can't Win Them All

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Well, it happened. The Yanks lost, but it wasn't because they came out flat, or played sloppily or couldn't score runs. The one person to blame for tonight's loss, and I know that there are a lot of people who were involved, was Sergio Mitre, and he played no part in the Red Sox series.

The starting rotation's weakest link actually started out remarkably well, striking out six of the first 7 batters he faced. In his previous four starts Mitre had only struck out 9. Derek Jeter gave him a small cushion to work with by leading off the bottom of the first with a home run, but Mitre gave it back in the 3rd on a homer by Aaron Hill that bounced off the top of the wall in front of the opposing bullpen. Jeter scored again in the home half of the 3rd on a sac fly by Swisher to give the Yankees the lead, but Mitre once again faltered.

The turning point of the game came in the top of the 4th. After Lyle Overbay walked and Vernon Wells singled, Jose Bautista came to the plate with men on first and second. He hit a sharp bouncer back to Mitre, who made a beautiful snare and looked to be in position to turn a double play. Instead, he hesitated for a moment, took a few steps up the mound and fired a throw towards Robinson Cano standing at second. The throw started tailing towards first base and with the runner bearing down and perhaps with the double play in mind, Cano briefly took his eye off the ball. It glanced off his glove and rolled past, allowing Overbay to score and Wells to move to third.

Instead of having at least one and possibly two outs, the Yanks now had no one out, one run in with runners on the corners. The error was initially charged to Robinson Cano but then transferred to Mitre. The Jays brought Wells and Bautista around to score before the inning was over and took the lead 4-1.

As was the signature of the series with the Red Sox, the Yankees responded to the Jays immediately, as they had done in the 3rd. Robinson Cano led off the inning with a blast to right center which was followed by Jerry Hairston's first round tripper as a Yankee. Marc Rzcepczynski lasted on 3 1/3 innings and gave up four runs, but was never on the hook for the loss due to Mitre's shortcomings.

Lyle Overbay hit a two out solo shot in the fifth inning that would prove to be the difference in the game. With the count full, Mitre left a sinker in the fat part of the plate and Overbay pummeled it, just short of the right field bleachers.

The Yanks led off the 6th and 7th with hits, but just couldn't seem to level the score. To begin the 8th inning, Jorge Posada engaged with a 12 pitch battle with Jesse Carlson, which ended on Posada swinging through a slider the third time in a row Carlson had thrown it. Hideki Matsui singled in the 9th but that was the end of the Yanks' offense for the night.

While the Jays cycled through four relievers to close out the game without allowing another run, the Yanks needed only one. Blog favorite Alfredo Aceves notched only one strikeout in the four innings but he allowed just two hits and didn't walk anyone. According to ESPN radio after the game, Joe Girardi said that Mitre will make his next start, which may or may not prevent the speculation that Aceves was being stretched out to start.

A loss is always bad, especially when the Red Sox win, but tonight wasn't especially brutal. The Yanks had some chances but didn't capitalize against the Jays' pen. With the Yanks' relievers having been so lights out recently, it was only a matter of time before the tables were turned on them.

Game 112: Don't Let It Bring You Down

The concept of a "letdown game" or a "trap game" is not specific to baseball. If you're skeptical of the conventional wisdom/pop psychology that is so wildly prevalent in sports, then you won't be surprised by the fact that research into this phenomenon has actually shown that in the past 10 years in the NFL at least, there is no such effect.

Anecdotally, you can point to the 2003 World Series and say the Yankees were burned out after going 7 games against the Red Sox, but you could just as easily have said that about the Sox in 2004 except they swept the Cardinals in the Fall Classic and made it look easy. The same was true in 2007 when the ALCS went 7 games and the World Series ended in a sweep as well. Looking back to the "Boston Massacre" of 2006, the Yanks went on to lose 4 of their next 5, so should we be concerned that the Yanks might hit a rough patch coming out of the Sox series this time around? Yes, but it has nothing to do with the concept of a "letdown game".

First and most importantly, the Yanks are trotting out Sergio Mitre to a team that saw him only 5 days ago. Luckily, the Yanks escaped with a victory, but Mitre was shaky at best, allowing 3 runs on 8 hits in 4 1/3 IP while throwing 92 pitches. That outing actually brought his ERA down to 7.50 and he still has yet to have a start this year where he contributed a positive WPA to the team's chances. With Chad Gaudin now waiting in the wings and likely to have a chance to audition in long relief today, Mitre may be on the verge of getting bounced out of the rotation if he can't come up with a decent performance.

The Yanks are going to get another crack at Marc Rzepczynski as well, but the lefty was significantly better against the Yanks than Mitre against the Jays, even if his final pitching line doesn't tell that story. rZep struck out 7 in six innings and allowed only 6 baserunners, although four of them came around to score and only 3 did when he was on the mound. The 23 year old has pitched 33 2/3 innings this year to a 3.74 ERA. He might be a rookie but he's not a pushover, and the Yanks are going to have to have a strong showing at the plate to get to him.

A-Rod is back at 3rd tonight, Posada will be DHing and Jerry Hairston will be spelling Johnny Damon in left, as Hairston has better numbers against lefties than Damon this year, to say nothing of the upgrade in the field. Defense will be a significant factor tonight as Mitre tends to allow a lot of balls to be put in play. The downside of this arrangement is that Nick Swisher moves in to the two hole and the bottom three in the order are Hairston, Melky and Molina.

Another game against the Blue Jays brings another tune by the best Canadian songwriter I can think of. The Yanks are 7-2 against the boys from Toronto this season, 31 of their last 41 overall, have won 7 in a row and are hopefully ready to weather a start by Sergio Mitre and run the winning streak up to 8.

Don't let it bring you down,
It's only castles burning,
Find someone who's turning,
And you will come around.