Game 24: Cold Roses

Coming off the young season's most frustrating loss, if not the ugliest, the Yankees step into their sixth rubber game in eight series, looking to avoid just their second series loss of 2010.

Phil Hughes makes his fourth start of the season. Thus far, Hughes has been the back of rotation work horse that the club had hoped yesterday's starter would be. He's given up two runs or fewer in each of his three starts, his outing in Oakland two turns ago is the best performance by a Yankee starter this year, and he'd be a perfect 3-0 had he not been betrayed by the bullpen in Baltimore Tuesday night.

Hughes has been successful in six career appearances, two of them starts, against the ChiSox. He's allowed just two runs and ten baserunners in eleven innings of work, while striking out a batter per frame. The four relief appearances came last year, with Hughes taking the tough-luck loss in one of them, despite allowing just a single run and three baserunners in five innings of work. The two starts came in 2008, and despite Hughes' poor performance overall in that campaign, he was successful against Chicago, allowing one run and seven baserunners over six innings. His first start was limited to two innings thanks to a rain delay, his second to four innings due to it being his first following his months-long stay on the disabled list.

Current Chicago batters have good numbers against Hughes, over just 41 plate appearances, with the bulk of the success accumulated by Alex Rios and Mark Teahan during their time with Toronto and Kansas City respectively. Hughes' 2.00 ERA is outperforming both his FIP and xFIP, largely due to his success at stranding the relatively high number of free passes he's issued. If he's going to sustain his early season success, he'll have to reduce that walk rate. Chicago is currently sixth in the AL in BB%, at 9.9%.

For the White Sox, lefty Mark Buehrle gets the ball. Unlike Hughes, Buehrle's numbers suggest he's been a bit unlucky, as his 4.68 ERA is far worse than his 3.91 FIP. The main culprit Buehrle thus far has been a major drop in his strikeout rate, currently at just 3.58 per 9, well down from his career mark of 5.16 per 9. The Yanks teed off on Buehrle in two starts last year. They knocked him around for seven runs, twelve hits, and a loss in four and third during a July start in the Second City. Buehrle held them to just two runs over six innings in the Bronx a month later, despite allowing ten baserunners, but the Yanks still escaped with the victory. Over his ten year career, Buehrle is just 1-6 with 6.43 ERA in ten starts against the Yankees.

In roster news, Curtis Granderson's groin injury has landed him on the DL. Yesterday's combination of another disaster start from Javier Vazquez and some more questionable relief choices from Joe Girardi has left the bullpen a bit short today. As a result, Mark Melancon has been recalled to take Granderson's roster spot. The promising right hander struggled with his control over his first 16.1 Big League innings last year, but has dominated AAA over parts of three seasons. Eventually the Yankees will want another outfielder on the roster to replace Granderson, but for today Melancon is needed. If he impresses, he could pitch his way into a job given the current uncertainty in middle relief.

Yesterday's game was ugly and frustrating on a number of levels, but one of the great things about baseball is that each day brings a new game. The Phranchise has a chance to right the ship this afternoon, and keep the Yankees rolling along at .667 clip. Just like shaking off a Sunday morning hangover, it's time to put away Saturday's bruises, put on your Sunday shoes, and get back in the win column.

Mirrors in the room go black and blue
On a Sunday morning in Saturday shoes
We don't choose who we love
We don't choose

Lights over the midway melt on the street
In her Sunday shoes, with her Saturday feet
She don't love who she chose
She don't need what she use

Daylight comes and exposes
Saturday's bruises and cold roses
Cold roses

-Lineups-

Yankees:
Yeesh. Already down Granderson, the lineup is further punchless today, with Alex Rodriguez getting the day off. Ramiro Pena plays third, and Nick Swisher, who has destroyed Mark Buehrle over his career, takes the clean up spot. As expected, Brett Gardner slides over to center, and with the lefty Buehrle on the bump, Marcus Thames gets the start in left. Let's hope that he keeps up his lefty mashing and that the White Sox keep the ball out of left field. Nick Johnson returns to the line up and the two spot in the order; he'll play first today with Tex getting a half day off as the DH.

Jeter SS
Johnson 1B
Teixeira DH
Swisher RF
Cano 2B
Posada C
Thames LF
Gardner CF
Pena 3B

White Sox:
And speaking of punchless, here's the Fightin' Ozzies lineup, featuring not one, not two, not three, not even four, but five batters with an OPS+ of less than 65, and four guys with an OPS+ under 45. Oh, and Alex Rios, who has great numbers against Hughes, is not in the lineup, as he attends the birth of his child. I hope Alex is nicer to his offspring than he was to this guy.

Mark Kotsay RF
Gordon Beckham 2B
Andruw Jones CF
Paul Konerko 1B
Mark Teahan 3B
Carlos Quentin DH
A.J. Pierzynski C
Alexei Ramirez SS
Juan Pierre LF

Game 134: Small Axe

Tonight, the Yanks begin another series against a bird-named division rival. The four game set with the Blue Jays will cap off their 7 game road trip and the Yanks need only to take one game for it to be a winning one after sweeping the O's. When the Yanks return home they will see both of these teams again, closing out their season series against them during a 10 game homestand in the Bronx.

After leading the division as late as May 23rd and being 8 games over .500, the Blue Jays have faded 14 games under and 25 1/2 back. They are currently twice as close in the standings to the Orioles than the Rays... and that's never a good thing. Even our optimistically-named pal eyebleaf is having a hard time stomaching the downward spiral and it's tough to blame him.

Roy Halladay wasn't traded, which should have made most Jays fans happy, but due to his poor performance since the deadline and the erosion of the time left on his contract, his value is steadily decreasing for what is looking more and more like an inevitable trade this offseason. Alex Rios is gone and in return, the club got salary relief which theoretically could be used in the future, but the fans got a heaping helping of nothing for now. We don't even need to talk about Vernon Wells.

However, tonight's starter for the Jays, Ricky Romero has been one of the remaining bright spots on the team. The 24 year old rookie lefty has pitched 136.2 innings, struck out 104, is averaging 6 innings per start, has a 3.95 ERA and a 11-6 record, behind only Halladay in those categories. The Yanks have seen him twice this year and he's earned a win and a no-decision by pitching 6 & 6 1/3 innings and giving up 3 runs each time.

Chad Gaudin will be making his second start as a Yankee today. He had a rather odd start his other time out, facing another one of his former teams, the A's. Gaudin gave up no runs, and onyl one hit in 4 1/3 innings, but walked 5 and saw his pitch count quickly escalate, finishing with 90. Gaudin didn't get the win, but the Yankees did. It's hard to expect a whole lot out of Gaudin today and logic dictates that his pitch count will be limited once again. But the bullpen is deep with call ups and waiting to back him up.

Gaudin was one of the minor moves Brian Cashman executed this season and I discussed earlier today; just a small solution to a seemingly big problem.

So if you are the big tree,
We are the small axe,
Ready to cut you down (well sharp),
Sharpened to cut you down.

I'll Show You Overpaid...

I'm going to single Joel Sherman out here, but he is just stating a general sentiment that I've heard in several other places the most unequivocally (emphasis mine):

But, at this moment, Peavy has a foot injury and Rios is one of the most overpaid players in the majors. The risk is huge -- and fascinating.

"At this moment"? Alex Rios is making $5.9M in salary in 2009, which pro-rated for 112 games equates to $4.3M, and has already been worth $4.9 to the Blue Jays. He's actually slightly overpaid. And in general, saying a player who makes $6M is "one of the most overpaid players in the majors" is like ripping someone for driving a Jeep for getting bad gas mileage. Is it great? No, but let's look at the supercharged H1 Hummer parked directly next door.

Even if you are talking about Rios' value going forward, you could do a lot worse than paying a guy capable of playing a strong center field with a career OPS of .786 who steals about 20 bases per year an average of $11.75M over the next 5 seasons. For instance you could be giving $18M to Vernon Wells who can't play center and is putting up a .717 OPS to Rios' .744 this year, under the exact same circumstances.

It's not Rios' fault that the Blue Jays left him in right field because Wells and his reprehensible contract were blocking him in center, where he could have created the most value. Wells, by the way has been worth negative $3.6M to the Blue Jays this year according to FanGraphs, while making $18M.

Using this methodology, I've compiled a short, non-comprehensive list of MLB position players who, like Wells and unlike Rios actually are overpaid:

[values are extrapolated to a full season to match annual salaries,

all #'s via Cot's MLB Contracts and FanGraphs are in millions]

The guys with negative value get screwed by the extrapolation, because it multiplies their negative value, but you get the idea. Vernon Wells is the most overpaid position player in the MLB and it's only close because Jose Guillen (who actually apologized for sucking so badly) is even worse. Apparently the stank of his contract is rubbing off on the man to his left on defense.

This isn't to say that the Blue Jays handled Rios' contract well, even if he is currently appropriately valued. As Keith Law points out, they made a mistake with Alex Rios, whether it was overpaying for him initally or giving him away for free yesterday.

Jays Jettison Rios

Since the Jays are in town and this move effects both the White Sox' playoff chances this year and the direction of the Blue Jays going forward, I figured I would take some time to examine the decision to acquire Yankee Killer Alex Rios off the waiver wire by the White Sox.

Coupled with the Jake Peavy trade, ChiSox GM Kenny Williams has taken on roughly $115M in future salary over the past two weeks. The Sox are one game over .500, so they don't figure to factor into the Wild Card mix, but are still just 3 games in back of the Tigers in the AL Central. Peavy is still on the disabled list and won't make his first minor league start until later this week at the earliest so he probably won't make more than 4 or 5 starts for the Big League club before the end of the regular season.

Rios', on the other hand, will make an immediate impact if used optimally. In his career with the Jays, Rios has primarily held down RF while Vernon Wells played CF. Jermaine Dye and Carlos Quentin are holding down the starting corner outfield jobs for the Sox, which would be a problem were it not for the fact that Rios is a more than capable CF as well. He's much better than Wells, actually. In 106 games in CF, Rios has a UZR/150 of 12.8 whereas Wells' is -6.8. The Sox started Ken Griffey, Jr. in CF for 32 games last year, so they obviously aren't too concerned with shifting someone from a corner spot to center.

Considering the meager production the Sox are getting out of their current center fielders (.224/.281/.313), Rios' line of .264/.338/.383 is a significant upgrade, even before you consider the boost he'll be getting from playing at US Cellular Field. He's also a base stealing threat with 32 last year and 19 already this season.

Despite being in his physical prime at 28 years old, Rios is having a down year, which is the major reason the Blue Jays decided to let the White Sox walk away with him for nothing more than the required $20,000 transfer fee. The two teams engaged in negotiations before the trade deadline, meaning the Sox would have actually had to give up something at that point, but they waited it out, were the only team to make a waiver claim and got him for essentially nothing.

From the Blue Jays' perspective, they shed a major chunk of salary (not the one they really wanted to, though), but also parted with Rios at his lowest value thus far in his career. Even still, he will come close to equaling his contract value this year and has far exceeded even the $12.5M he is due in 2014 in both 2007 and 2008 according to FanGraphs. And those numbers calculate his value mostly as a RF, not a CF.

Does this move foreshadow a Roy Halladay trade this offseason? Dumping a productive player with a long term deal like Rios for salary reasons and getting nothing in return doesn't exactly signal the desire to compete now. This is a step beyond the Scott Rolen move. By dealing Halladay, they could save themselves a significant amount of money and net some good prospects in return, if they are indeed moving towards rebuilding. I'd be willing to be that the Jays would have tried harder to find a place for Halladay if they knew they could dump Rios after the deadline.

It's possible that Rios' offensive production will continue to decline and the Jays are thrilled with their decision in a few years, but I think it's more likely that they watch him become a solid contributor for the White Sox and regret the fact that it made financial sense at the time to get rid of him. If Rios were to hit the free agent market this offseason, he almost surely wouldn't get the kind of contract he is signed to, but the way that the baseball economy moves from here through 2014 could make the deal look very shrewd or very foolish on either side.

Down With Doc

Roy Halladay's last loss against the Yankees came on Opening Day, 2008. His career numbers against the Yankees sound like a Cy Young candidate's. Sixteen wins to only five losses with a 2.90 ERA, 223 1/3 IP, 3.4 K/BB and 1.115 WHIP. And that's against the team who has had the most runs scored over the course of his Major League career. He's 7-1 with a 2.10 ERA in his last 10 starts against the Yankees. There are players who seem to have the Yankees number but a statistical analysis doesn't bear that out. Roy Halladay is not one of those players.

The two Bombers who actually have good numbers against Halladay combined to get to Doc in the first inning. In the first inning, Johnny Damon singled and was doubled in by A-Rod, who scored on a throwing error by Kevin fackin' Millah.

The two quick runs apparently did Andy Pettitte quite well, because the Yanks never surrendered the lead from that point forward. The Jays plated a run in the 4th inning on a sac fly by Alex Rios, but that was the extent of the damage on Andy's watch.

With the score still 2-1 after two quick outs in the 7th, Pettitte had thrown only 94 pitches and looked to be headed for the eighth inning and beyond. Instead, a four pitch skirmish with Edwin Encarnacion ended in a double and he walked Rob Barajas on six pitches. Joe Girardi called on Phil Hughes who got Jose Bautista looking to end the inning. Pettitte walked four and allowed more than his fair share of hard hit balls which the defense turned into outs, but walked away with a chance to win.

The Yanks widened the margin to 4-1 on back to back homers by Johnny Damon and Mark Teixeira in the top of the eighth but it was not smooth sailing from there. Hughes allowed the first two batters he faced to reach base and the cameras panned to Mariano Rivera loosening up in the Yank's bullpen. Hughes buckled down, striking out both Adam Lind and Kevin Millar looking, but Girardi called on Mo to face Vernon Wells. Grrrrrr. Wells has a career 1.014 OPS against Rivera, but only a .614 OPS against Hughes, albeit in half as many at bats. Why ask Mo for another 4 out save? Wells worked a 3-0 count before ripping a two run double, to bring the Jays within one run. Rivera bent but didn't break and got Alex Rois to ground out to end the inning.

Cito Gaston left Roy Halladay in for the 9th, for some odd reason, and Hideki Matsui led off the bottom of the ninth with a prodigious bast to deep center on the first pitch he saw. Doc finished the inning and took the complete game loss, ultimately throwing 103 pitches, giving up 10 hits, striking out 5 and walking none.

Rivera allowed two singles during the course of the 9th inning, but Aaron Hill flew out to shallow center with men on first and thrid with tow outs and Melky Cabrera caught it to close out the victory for the Yanks and for Pettitte.

Going into tonight, any rational Yankee fan would have jumped at the chance to take a game which Roy Halladay started. Maybe Mo won't be available tomorrow because of the four out save tonight and the impending four game series against the Red Sox (who are still locked up at 2-2 in the 12th as I post this), but let's hope Girardi isn't faced with that decision. The Yanks got all they could ask for tonight.

Signing an Autograph Is Not a Charitable Act

Good morning Fackers. It's Monday morning, so you're likely grumpy, as am I. But you know who's really in a bad mood? Alex Rios.

After going 0 for 5 with 5 Ks in last Thursday's matinee, taking the rarely seen platinum sombrero for the second time in his career, Rios headed out for a night on the town at a team sponsored charity function. Let's go to the videotape, which features some NSFW language:



Wow. You stay classy there Alex Rios. I believe the locals would say that you are a hoser. Rios is not performing too well this year and I have him on both my fantasy teams. I don't know if I can tolerate this type of behavior from one of my players. If you're going to play for The Boozehounds or A-Rod's Bitch Tits you have to carry yourself like a professional both on and off the field.

I'd also like the record to show that I departed Toronto Tuesday; so I was in no way a party to this. Schiff on the other hand may have something to add.

By A Thread

Is it possible for a one run game to have been closer than the score indicated? Neither team scored more than one run in an inning, nor did they lead by more than one. It wasn't a protracted, tense affair but there were close breaks in either direction and this one could have easily gone either way. The starting pitchers both turned in solid performances, the difference was that by going eight innings, Sabathia only had to turn the ball over to Mariano Rivera, while Brian Tallet was pulled after allowing a walk and a single in the 7th.

The Jays' starter had only thrown 91 pitches and was in line for the win, but Jason Frasor blew the save and Jesse Carlson was tagged with the "L". Tallet gets an A for effort and a M+ for an excellent 'stashe piece. It looked like someone travelled back into 1986, plucked him out of a truck stop in Decatur and said, "Hey pal, can you throw a fastball?" 

Come on, if someone told you that Brain Tallet had driven some truck is his day, would you be that surprised?

Our own formerly mustachioed lefty ran into a scary moment in the first when Aaron Hill ripped a line drive right back up the middle towards him. Maybe it's just because he is such a large individual, but it seems as though this has happened to Sabathia more than his fair share of times this year. Helped out by an instinctual reaction, CC's glove ended up right in the path of the ball, narrowly missing his pitching hand and elbow.
 

He had it for a second, dropped it, but still made the throw to first in time.  

Sabathia wasn't exactly sharp, issuing 4 walks, but did a good job of limiting the damage. He allowed a HR to Yankee-killer Alex Rios in the fourth inning, and then ran into some trouble in the fifth. With one out, Sabathia had already walked Scott Rolen, who was doubled home by Rod Barajas. The next batter, John McDonald, hit a bouncing single up the middle, which figured to score a run. Gardner fielded and fired to the plate where Francisco Cervelli made a lunging ass-tag (pictured up top) on the slow-footed Barajas for the second out of the inning.

The play at the plate is one of the most exciting events in baseball. Only if an outfielder robs a hitter of a multi-run homer is there more at directly stake. There was both a run and an out on the line which would have been more than enough to alter the outcome of this game. Sabathia got Marco Scutaro to ground out an end the inning, diffusing the threat and keeping the score at 2-1. 

The Yankees tied it up in the 7th inning on a little squib to right field by Derek Jeter and Hideki Matsui hit a home run over a giant picture of Brain Tallet in right center, which would prove the be the game-deciding run. 

Coming into the series, if the Yankees were offered a deal that would have allowed them to take two out of three, I think they would have gladly accepted. It was a respectable (if predictable) showing. They got undressed by Roy Halladay, then rocked Scott Richmond and finally got a solid performance from their ace. They return home tonight to begin a ten game homestand. Their mini-Divisional road trip ended up at 4-2, so I guess that all is well that ends well.