Winter Weekend Roundup

Good morning Fackers. With the exception of the overtime shootout between the Packers and Cardinals last night (which was the highest scoring playoff game in NFL history) there wasn't much in the way of interesting football to watch this weekend. Three of the games featured leads of two touchdowns or more during the first half and only one ended up with a final score within 10 points. Joe picked two of the four games correctly, which was a whole lot better than Bill Simmons, who went 0-4.

Football maybe have disappointed, but the Hot Stove kept burning all weekend long, offering up some warmth during a very cold weekend along the East Coast.

First, from the Yankees:

• Much to the chagrin of staffers at the NY Daily News, countless teenage girls and (reportedly) Tim McCarver, the Post believes that they have uncovered the date of Derek Jeter and Minka Kelly's wedding - this coming November 5th, two days after Game 7 of the 2010 World Series. Mark Melancon actually got married over the weekend, no one really cares about that.
  
  
• The Yankees are rumored to be in "serious talks" with Jerry Hairston, Jr. Neyer likes it as does Joe from RAB, each citing the value of versatility.
  

• Johnny Damon is still in search of a job, with the Braves one of a "handful of teams" Damon believes he "could win" with. The Yankees tried to tell Damon that this is how the market would play out, but unfortunately for him Scott Boras was more concerned finding a place for Matt Holliday. Via River Ave. Blues, Aubrey Huff signed with San Francisco, further limiting Damon's options.

And around the league:

• Although they had been pursing Aroldis Chapman "like crazy", the first news of the Reds' involvement came Sunday in the form of a tweet from Jeff Passan of Yahoo. There were some good jokes involving Dusty Baker and/or communism to be made, but they were snatched up pretty quickly. Here's a nice, if slightly outdated, video report on the Cuban lefty.
  
  Reds beat reporter John Fay says that the deal is for $25M over 5 years with an option for the 6th year. However, Chapman will be paid over a period of 10 years and his 2010 salary will only be in the neighborhood of $1M.
  
  Our buddy Craig thinks this is a good risk for the Reds at this point, adding another high upside arm to a young rotation. The A's were reportedly the next highest bidder.

• The Rangers signed Vlad Guererro for $5M plus incentives.

• Daisuke Matsuzaka told a paper in Japan that he hurt his thigh before the World Baseball Classic last year, but didn't bother to inform the Red Sox. Fans might see this as good news since it could explain some of his difficulties last season, but I can't imagine the organization is too pleased.

• Ed Wade continues to do his best to be included in "The Contest".

• Murray Chass lectured bloggers for making grammatical mistakes and, in accordance with Muprhy's Law, made some of his own in the process.

Joe Buck Hates The Yankees

How many times have you heard someone say something similar to that headline? I've heard it a lot. Why do people think that announcers hate their team? Why Buck specifically?

First, I think it goes without saying that Buck is infinitely more competent than Chip Caray. Or as Craig Calcaterra said during the ALDS, "He's still basically terrible, but he's less offensive than the other terrible announcer who only has his job because of nepotism". Bill Simmons jokingly suggested that HBO create the "Chip Caray Show" and put it on before Buck's to make the latter look better by comparison.

Fro the record, I don't have a problem with Joe Buck and wouldn't say he's "terrible". I think he does an satisfactory job of calling the game and that's something most of us took for granted until Caray came on the scene. Say what you will about Buck, but he doesn't inaccurately describe what's happening on the field very often or repeatedly shove words like "fisted" up our... well, you know.

I think a big part of the reason that people don't like Buck and McCarver (aside from ol' Tim's sometimes nonsensical declarations) is the tone of Joe Buck's voice. He comes across as slightly smug and smarmy. People believe that Joe Buck thinks he's better than them. I don't know whether or not that is actually the case, or to what extent other announcers feel that way, but I think it oozes through the speakers from Buck to a much greater extent.

The other reasons that people dislike Buck are the same for all national broadcasters, especially in baseball. Most teams have home announcers that sound more folksy and are easy on the local nine. When a player fouls up, fans are going to be upset, and therefore much more likely to misdirect their anger towards the announcer. So Buck might point out the same thing that Michael Kay would, but the voice isn't as familiar, the tone a bit sharp. Sometimes it's not the message as much as it is the messenger.

Local broadcasters also know the team inside and out and tailor their calls to fans who know more about their guys. On the weekends during the season and all games in the playoffs, whether we like it or not, the marginal viewers that represent that giant increase in ratings are casual fans or supporters of other teams. We are the ones watching all the games regardless, so why are the networks going to cater to us? So if FOX wants to maximize its ratings, they have to kowtow to people who aren't intimately familiar with Robinson Cano's lack of production with runners in scoring position.

In the end, I think the most telling thing is that a certain section of fans from all over the country think the announcers hate their team. I've heard countless Red Sox fans say that Buck hates the Red Sox. The Angels blog we kept talking about during the ALCS thought Buck had a pro-Yankees bias. Is it possible that Buck and McCarver hate every team? I guess, but isn't it more likely that fans all hate the same announcers? I would have to agree with McCarver when he sad said, “Quite simply, the bias comes not from the voice, but from the ears”.

When it comes right down to it, which announcers are universally liked? Vin Scully. Anyone else? Would Vin Scully have been so widely revered if his career was beginning now and we could all bitch about his calls on Twitter?

Broadcasting is a tough job and due to the duration of time on the air and proximity to the fans, it's the one position in sports that might be more scrutinized than what happens on the field. Maybe there's someone in broadcasting school right now with a killer voice and background in sabermetrics who is going to universally beloved 15 or 20 years from now.

But I kinda doubt it. People are going to find something to hate about that guy too. We hold our announcers to impossibly high standards and sports fans are always going to find something to critique during the countless hours they are on the air. With the lines of communication now available on the internet, I think it's fair to wonder if any national broadcaster will ever be truly loved again.

When Is A Slump A Slump?

Good morning, Fackers. Yes, I just made a Geology picture "joke". Doc Nardacci would be so proud... Now get ready for some logarithms! WAKE UP!

Over at the Freakonomics blog at the NYT, they used some statistics to propose a more solid definition for what actually consititues a slump (or any streak with an absence of a certain event) using A-Rod as an example (h/t BBTF):

It occurred to me that it would be pretty easy to derive a statistical standard for determining when an athlete was having a “statistically significant slump.” For example, Alex Rodriguez recently went through a homerless drought of 72 at-bats. Over his career, A-Rod has averaged one homer for every 14.2 at bats — suggesting there is about a 93 percent chance that he will not homer on any individual at bat. It would be crazy to say that he was in a home-run slump after failing to homer after just a few at bats. But the question is how many homer-less at bats is enough to be a statistically significant drought?

The answer is 42. There is less than a 5 percent chance that Rodriguez would go homerless 42 times in a row — so we can reject the hypothesis (at a 5 percent level of statistical significance) that he is going homer-less merely as a matter of chance.

They are essentially drawing the line at a 95% confindence interval (2 standard deviations), but you can set your own parameters by altering the simple formula:

Total consecutive number of bad events > log(.05)/log(probability of single bad event)

It's a little more difficult because you have to play around with it to find the right number, but you can also figure out what the likelihood of A-Rod going on a 72 at bat homerless streak (beginning in his next at bat) would be. It's about one half of one percent.

Using this method, we can determining the (im)probability that Derek Jeter would go 113 plate appearances without working a walk like he did from July 28th to August 25th. In 9656 career PAs, Jeter has walked 863 times, giving him a walk rate about approximately 8.9%. This makes the odds of him going that long without a base on balls 0.0025% or 1 in 4,000.

Fun stuff, huh? No? Well at least it gives you a way, numerically, to prove that Tim McCarver is an idiot. You're welcome.

Yanks Stink It Up In Beantown

For the second straight game, Yankee pitching turned in a turd of a performance. This time though, they didn't have the luxury of twenty runs of offense backing them up.

A.J. Burnett entered the game on a run of 11 quality starts in 12 outings since his clunker at Fenway on June 9th, including 7.2 innings of one hit, shutout ball against the Red Sox 15 days ago. He exited after getting hit early and often, giving up nine runs for the first time in his career and having laid his third egg of a start in as many appearances at Fenway in 2009. His start today ran his 2009 line at Fenway Park to 12.2 IP, 22 H, 22 R, 20 ER, 10 BB, 10 K, and 6 HR allowed. That's a 14.21 ERA and a 2.53 WHIP. Ouch. I don't have the stomach to even calculate his batting line against.




Meanwhile, the Yankee offense went limp after last night's outburst. They had plenty of chances against Junichi Tazawa, putting on 11 base runners in his six innings of work, including two in each of the first, second, fourth, fifth, and sixth. Yet they couldn't push one across until Nick Swisher, who had a 3 for 5 day, hit a solo shot over the Monster in the seventh.

Alfredo Aceves came on for Burnett in the sixth, and continued his recent troubling run by allowing three runs in two innings of work. He's now allowed multiple runs in three consecutive outings and in five of his last eight. David Robertson allowed two runs of his own in the ninth. Despite carrying a nine man bullpen, the Yankees have had a tough time finding any relief over the last two games.

And because of that poor roster management, and because of Johnny Damon's bruised knee, the Yankees were left with a rediculously short two man bench. As such, there was no better option for left field than Eric Hinske, who despite playing 29 games in left for the Red Sox between 2006 and 2007, has spent the last two days stumbling around in front of the Green Monster like a drunken sailor. For the second straight day, Derek Jeter had to bail Hinske out after he grossly misplayed a ball off the wall.

Because of the short bench, Jeter had to play the entirety of Friday's laugher, as the Yankees only had the subs to rest one infielder, and it was Alex Rodriguez. Saturday was Jeter's turn, as Hairston pinch hit for him in the seventh, once the game was well out of hand. But Alex Rodriguez was also given the rest of the day off from that point, as Jose Molina, the last remaining healthy position player on the Yankee bench, pinch hit for A-Rod and then made his first career appearance at third base. What a joke. Sure would have been nice to have Ramiro Pena around to play shortstop Friday night, or third base today, or left field either night. But hey, at least the Yankees had that extra reliever in the pen so that they could pull A.J. Burnett once he dug the a team a seven run hole through two innings, rather than let him go five and make it a nine run hole. Oh wait - nevermind.

I probably shouldn't be complaining this much given the overall state of affairs, but this was a frustrating one. That's what happen when poor roster decisions come back to bite the team in the ass. Or when your Youk touches them up for two dingers, ten total bases, and six RBI. Or when the Yankee pitching staff, much like last Sunday, gives up thirteen runs with two outs. Or when the Yankee offense goes 0 for 9 with RISP and leaves 13 runners on base. Or when I have to listen to Tim McCarver for the entirety of it.

Rubber game tomorrow night. Here's hoping the Yanks bounce back for it.

Game 62: New York, New York

It's a nice Saturday afternoon and we'll see our second New York - New York match-up of 2009. Today's game can't be any sloppier than yesterday's can it?

Fernando Nieve will start for the Mets in place of the recently DL'd John Maine. After a respectable rookie season for the Astros in 2006, Nieve has only pitched 12.2 MLB innings since, beset by both injuries and ineffectiveness. It would be awfully nice if the Yanks would hang a crooked number on him this afternoon.

And they may well need it. In 18 career regular season starts against the Mets, Andy Pettitte is 8-4 with a 3.46 ERA and 1.23 WHIP. But, Pettitte has not been particularly sharp of late. He's been battling a balky back, and has been allowing base runners at an uncomfortble rate. His WHIP currently sits at 1.53 and in his last five starts he's given up 35 H and 16 BB in just 29.2 IP. Still the team has gone 4 and 1 in those games, with Pettitte registering three of the victories. As Joe Girardi likes to say, Andy has a way of bending but not breaking. Hopefully he'll have a little extra room to bend today in opposing a replacement level pitcher.

Two updates courtesy of Pete Abe: Bruney tossed a perfect inning in AA earlier this afternoon. He threw 8 of his 12 pitches for stirkes and hit 94 MPH. Secondly, Damon returns to the line-up today, but it's Nick Swisher, not Brett Gardner, who takes a seat on the bench.

Regarding Swisher, perhaps it's a delayed benching for his numerous boneheaded plays earlier this week. But if Girardi wouldn't sit him in May when he was slumping horribly, I find it odd that he chooses to now. As for the pinch hitting situation last night, Abe also relays that Girardi's rational was indeed that Swisher has poor numbers against K-Rod, and that he hoped Gardner would get on and steal second. I still say that Swisher's 11 at bats mean very little and that Damon was more likely to reach base and steal second than Gardner. But I digress.

With Johan Santana going for the Mets in Sunday's finale, it'd be nice to put the series away today and be playing with house money tomorrow.

Today's game is on FOX, so it's pick your poison time: Buck, McCarver, and that little weasel Rosenthal on the tube or Sterling and Waldman on the dial. Jeez. I think maybe I'll listen to Howie Rose on the FAN.

The particularly poignant video I wanted to use today can't be embedded. You can view that one here, or view the Letterman performance of the same song below. Or view both. One way or another, enjoy the game.



Love don't play any games with me
anymore like she did before
The world won't wait, so I better shake
that thing right out there through the door
Hell I still love you New York