Game 93: The Royal Scam

Tonight, the Yankees welcome the Royals to the Bronx for the first of a four game set. Luckily, Zack Greinke faced the Blue Jays last night (allowing two runs over 8 innings) and the Yanks will miraculously dodge him this time around.

CC Sabathia will take the mound for the Bombers this evening, a welcome relief after the bullpen has had to soak up 21 2/3 innings in the past three games because of Andy Pettitte's injury, A.J. Burnett's temper and Phil Hughes and Javier Vazquez's collective inability to get an out in the sixth inning.

The Big Fella draws consummate journeyman Bruce Chen (10 teams in 12 MLB seasons) tonight, who has the next lowest ERA in the Royals' starting rotation behind their young ace and is the only one who has a winning record (5-3).

Chen is walking a batter almost every other frame so far this season and striking out just over seven batters per nine innings. However, he has managed to keep his ERA and FIP down by allowing just six homers in 57.2 IP (0.94/9IP) due to a home run to fly ball ratio (7.1%) which is just about half of his career mark (14.1%).

Unless Chen has discovered some sort of magical formula for keeping the ball in the park, he is due to give up a few longballs. Fortunately for him, Chen is a lefthander, but maybe the Yankees can aid him regression to the mean tonight anyway.

And they wandered in,
From the city of St. John,
Without a dime,
Wearing coats that shined.
Both red and green,
Colors from their sunny island,
From their boats of iron,
They looked upon the promised land.
Where surely life was sweet,
On the rising tide,
To New York City,
Did they ride into the street.

See the glory,
Of the royal scam.

-Lineup(s)-

Yankees: Marcus Thames is DH'ing against the lefty as Jorge Posada returns behind the plate.

Derek Jeter SS
Nick Swisher RF
Mark Teixeira 1B
Alex Rodriguez 3B
Robinson Cano 2B
Jorge Posada C
Marcus Thames DH
Curtis Granderson CF
Brett Gardner LF

Game 62 Win Expectancy Chart

[Win Expectancy data via FanGraphs]

I wasn't able to catch any of this game on TV but I did want to share this anecdote from the postgame show on the radio. Suzyn Waldman was interviewing Derek Jeter and in her typical overly-motherly, fawning way was asking him what it mean to tie Rickey Henderson atop the all-time lead off home run list and going on and on about how special it must be.

Jeter sort of laughed and said, "Well, I think it was just his record for the Yankees, and he was only here for what, two years?". It was about four year's worth of games to be precise, but the point still stands. Keep it in your pants, Suzyn.

10 Days Until Spring Training: Chris Chambliss

Yankee history has more than its share of historic and memorable home runs: Tino Martinez, Derek Jeter, and Scott Brosius in the 2001 World Series, Bucky Dent in '78, Reggie's three bombs in Game Six in '77, Roger Maris' 61st in '61, Mantle's shot off the facade, Gehrig's four in one game in '32, the Babe's disputed called shot in the World Series that same year. But perhaps no home run in Yankee history was more momentous than the one hit by Chris Chambliss on October 14, 1976.

Chambliss was selected out of UCLA by the Cleveland Indians with the first overall pick in the 1970 draft. Placed immediately into AAA, Chambliss made his Major League debut in late May 1971 and went on to win the AL Rookie of the Year. Chambliss posted good, but not great, numbers through his first three seasons. Then, less than a month into the 1974 season, he was traded to the Yankees in a blockbuster deal.

The Yankees shipped pitchers Fritz Peterson, Steve Kline, Tom Buskey, and Fred Beene to the Indians for Chambliss and pitcher Dick Tidrow. The trade was initially heavily criticized. Not only had the Yankees traded away nearly half their pitching staff, it was yet another trade with Cleveland. The Yankees were in their second year of ownership under Cleveland native George Steinbrenner, and general manager Gabe Paul formerly held the same post with the Indians. The Chambliss deal was the fourth trade the Yankees and Indians made since the end of the 1972 season.

Despite the initial reactions, the Yankees got a steal of a deal. Beene and Kline were essentially finished by the end of the '74 season, and the remainder of Buskey's and Peterson's careers were unspectacular. But in Chambliss and Tidrow the Yankees had two key pieces to three pennant winning and two World Series winning ball clubs for the remainder of the decade.

When Chambliss stepped to the plate to lead off the ninth inning of the tied fifth and final game of the 1976 ALCS, he was coming off his best season to date, and perhaps the best of his entire career. He batted .293/.323/.441 (123 OPS+) with 17 HR and a career high 96 RBI, that would earn him a fifth place finish in the MVP balloting. Facing Royals relief ace Mark Littell, Chambliss launched the first pitch over the fence in right center field, giving the Yankees their first pennant in twelve years.

By the time he reached second base the field was mobbed with celebrating fans, and the bag had already been swiped. Chambliss was forced to tag it with his hand as the thief fled the scene. By the time he reached third he had removed his batting helmet so that the revelers couldn't steal it off his head. By the time he reached home plate the throng was so thick that no one could really tell if touched the plate. Later, after the commotion died down, Yankee manager Billy Martin ensured that Chambliss returned to the field with an umpire to tag the plate. By then the plate too had been stolen, leaving Chambliss to step on a hole in the ground.

Chambliss remained the Yankee first baseman through 1979, picking up two World Series rings and Gold Glove. Following the 1979 season, with the team in need of a catcher after the death of Thurman Munson, Chambliss was traded to Toronto as part of a six player deal that saw Rick Cerone come to the Bronx as the new Yankee catcher. Cerone inherited Chambliss' number ten, and finished seventh in the 1980 MVP voting. Cerone never came close to duplicating the success of his 1980 season, but he remained with the club through the 1984 season and was the last player to wear number 10 before it was retired in honor of Phil Rizzuto in 1985.

As for Chambliss, he never played a game for Toronto as they flipped him to Atlanta a month after the trade with the Yankees. He would spend the final seven seasons of his career with the Braves, playing three of them under manager Joe Torre. Chambliss retired after the 1986 season, spent 1987 as a minor league hitting instructor for the Yankees and joined the Major League staff as hitting coach for 1988. He briefly came out of retirement in early May, striking out in a lone pinch hitting appearance for the last plate appearance of his career.

Chambliss left the Yankees following that season, managing in the minors for the Tigers and Braves, but later resurfaced as Torre's hitting coach with the Cardinals in the early nineties. When Torre took the Yankees job prior to the 1996 season, he brought Chambliss along with him. Chambliss served as the Yankees' hitting coach through 2000, picking up four more World Series rings in the process. His son Russ played in the Yankees' minor leeague system during that time. Chris spent last year as the manager of the White Sox AAA affiliate.

---

For a look at another notable Yankee number ten, check out this post on Tony Kubek from when he was honored with the Ford Frick Award during Hall of Fame weekend last summer.

Quotes From Last Night: Game 3 Edition

Presented without comment:

Rob Neyer: Blown Call: Well, maybe. Rodriguez's long fly in the fourth inning certainly did hit a television camera, and that camera certainly was above the right-field fence. But if the baseball hadn't hit the camera, would it really have cleared the fence? Perhaps. But it might also have hit the very top of the fence and bounced back into play, presumably limiting Rodriguez to a double.

>8

Funny, I didn't know that umpires have the power to establish their own ground rules.

Crew chief Gerry Davis: We tour the field during the series whenever we go to a new ballpark, and discuss specific ground rules and potential trouble areas just like that. Because we cannot control what the cameraman does with the camera, one of the specific ground rules is when the ball hits the camera, [it's a] home run.

John Gonzalez, Philly Inquirer: Ugh. Last night was so promising. Hamels looked incredible - at first. Then Alex Rodriguez came to the plate in the fourth inning. That's when we should have known something was about to go horribly wrong. Fox put up a graphic about Rodriguez not having a hit off Hamels in his career - and A-Rod promptly cracked a homer off the right-field camera. The TV jinx never fails. If you want to blame the Phils' collapse on Joe Buck and Tim McCarver, I won't try to stop you this time.


Larry Brown Sports: Even if the ball were heading out, there’s no reason why a camera should be sticking out over the fence onto the field. Sure it’s a million-to-one shot, but it happened, and FOX looks bad because of it. Maybe they realize now that it’s not about how many cameras you have (and at the least, to make sure they’re not interfering with the play), but about not screwing up the action. That home run by A-Rod snapped his slump and sparked the Yankees offense. They can thank FOX and the umpires for it.


Bill, Crashburn Alley: Cole Hamels was victimized by himself once again. He poorly located his curve balls, as not one curve ball was thrown below the knees of a Yankees hitter, four were in the strike zone, and two went for Yankees hits: a double by Nick Swisher and a single by Pettitte.

Matthew Pouliot, Circling the Bases: For the fourth straight postseason start, Hamels failed to last six innings. He's given up 16 runs and seven homers in 19 innings. Compare that to the 2008 postseason, when he went 4-0 with a 1.80 ERA and gave up two homers in 35 innings.

The AP: Guess who showed up for Halloween dressed as sluggers?

Nick Swisher: I don't really read the paper, I'm more a guy that looks at the pictures. But all of the struggles kept piling on, and the harder I would try to work, the harder I would try when I got into the box. To get by that and have a great game like tonight was extremely gratifying.


Andy Pettitte: It was an absolute grind tonight, that’s for sure. I can’t remember winning a game where I’ve struggled like I did tonight. So it’s very gratifying.

Pettitte, again: I have no wheels at all -- I know that. I am very slow. I mean, very slow. The first thing Derek said was, 'I almost caught you'.

World Series Game 3: Ghost Riders In The Sky

Although both teams took the train to Philly yesterday, the World Series officially shifts to the City of Brotherly Love tonight. After dropping the Game 1 to Cliff Lee, the Yankees are lucky to be tied at this point and will need to take at least one of the games at Citizen's Bank Park to bring the Series back to the Bronx. Take all three and they won't need their last two home games.

With a struggling Cole Hamels on the mound, the Yankees are in good position to take the game tonight. After throwing 227 innings to a 3.09 ERA and winning both the NCLS and World Series MVPs last year, Hamels has returned to Earth in 2009. Perhaps the fact that, including the postseason, the pitched 262 innings - almost 80 more than in 2008 - has taken a bit of a toll on Hamels' arm.

So far this October, Hamels has made three starts, given up 11 earned runs and failed to make it out of the 6th inning in any of them. He's only walked two batters but has allowed 20 hits - six of which were home runs - in 14 2/3 innings. The fact that 6 of the 32 flyballs he's allowed have left the yard is a bit fluky but there isn't a whole of of time for a regression to the mean. And with the game time weather in Philly projected to be in the high sixties with high winds, the balls should be flying off the bats a bit farther than they were in Yankee Stadium.

The Yankees turn to Andy Pettitte tonight in hopes that he can tune out the raucous Philadelphia phaithful and keep the explosive Phillies offense at bay. In each his three starts this postseason, Pettitte has pitched 6 1/3 innings. Joe Girardi has been quick with the hook as the games have worn on but Andy has given up only 4 ER in those 19 innings (2.37 ERA). Dominant isn't a word typically ascribed to Pettitte but in two of those starts, he's allowed one run and walked away with the win. He will of course have the added benefit of having a pitcher in the opposing line up tonight.

Citizen's Bank Park has the reputation of being a bandbox, but the Phillies actually hit more home runs on the road this year (116) then at home (108). Although the middle of their line up is heavy with lefties Ryan Howard, Chase Utley and Raul Ibanez, the Phillies hit righties and lefties with equal

With Cliff Lee waiting in Game 5, it's important that the Yankees win tonight. Their offense has been waiting to explode and Hamels has not been pitching well. He could easily come up with a big start as he did in the World Series twice last year, but it would be a missed opportunity for the Yanks should they stuggle at the plate again in Game 3.

We got our Halloween partying out of the way last night, so tonight I will be dressing up as a baseball fan and sitting in front of the TV. This song choice is about as festive as we're gonna get around here.

Go Yanks.

Their faces gaunt, their eyes were blurred, their shirts all soaked with sweat,
He's riding hard to catch that herd, but he ain't caught 'em yet,
'Cause they've got to ride forever on that range up in the sky,
On horses snorting fire, as they ride on hear their cry.

As the riders loped on by him he heard one call his name,
If you want to save your soul from Hell a-riding on our range,
Then cowboy change your ways today or with us you will ride,
Trying to catch the Devil's herd, across these endless skies.

Round 2: Damon v. Abreu

Yesterday's hot topic around here, Bobby Abreu just got offered a nice new deal with the Angels.

The Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim offered Bobby Abreu a two-year extension worth about $16MM, according to SI.com's Jon Heyman (via Twitter).

As he did before this year, ol' Bobby is shooting for the stars and looking for a better deal. There's no real harm in that since he didn't sign with the Angels until mid-February this year and he has every right to find another team that's willing to pay him more than that.

Abreu is a really good hitter who would be an asset if placed in any lineup in the history of the game and he's coming off a pretty good year. But he'll be 36 years old when next season starts. He already has limited ability as a corner outfielder and will eventually transition into a part-time DH role.

Does that scenario sound familiar? That's right folks, Johnny Damon is in a nearly identical position.

Granted, the most likely scenario is that both guys stay where they are at, but let's assume the Yankees could have either of them for 2 years at $10M per. It might be a bit much, but with that offer already sitting out there for Abreu, we know it's not going to be much less.

Like we did yesterday with Nick Swisher and Abreu, let's look at the stats.

Damon batted in the two hole almost exclusively this year, while Abreu primarily hit third. This explains some of the gap in RBI, but not as well as Abreu's .354/.448/.475 line with RISP. That's great and all, but it's hardly sustainable.

On the same note, Damon set a career high for HRs this year and that is likely to regress to the mean next year as well. If Abreu were to get half of his plate appearances in Yankee Stadium in 2010, there's a pretty good chance his totals would increase, bringing the two a bit closer together.

The stolen base edge goes to Abreu, but Damon obviously could have run more and a good portion of the difference has to be the product of the strategy of the teams they play for. Defense isn't going to matter as much in the role that the Yankees are looking for since it will involve a good amount of games in the DH slot but Damon was completely terrible this year, and I don't think we can chalk off of it up to his eye issues. Although subjectively, I don't think there's any way he's that much worse than Abreu.

We're looking at two pretty similar players. Both have been extremely fortunate with their health over the years and remain productive at an advanced age. Both are risky investments and there's a fair chance that two years from now, one will look better than the other or both will look pretty bad. But based on what we know now, who ya got?

Realistically, Damon is far more likely to stick around due to real world factors like their families and such, but on paper a good case could be made for either of these guys. Think of what Abreu could do for the Yankees' approach at the plate!

The Case Of Melky v. Gardner

Aside from debating the merits of Jose Molina catching a playoff game over Jorge Posada, which has already been done pretty extensively, there is really only one other marginal decision that Joe Girardi has to make in terms of configuring his starting line-up. Center field is that one area of debate, where both Melky Cabrera and Brett Gardner have a case to start.

They've both had up and down years and each has skills that the other doesn't. Melky hit 13 home runs this year while Gardner still stole 26 bases despite being on base just over 100 times. His speed also makes Gardner far less likely to ground into double plays. Melky has about twice as many plate apperances but has bounced into five times more twin killings.

Gardner offers much better defense, but Melky is still above average in center. For what it's worth, Melky has shown a penchant for big hits this year even though Gardner has better "clutch" stats. The Melk Man had a decidedly better September/October although that isn't very important either.

If either are left out of the line up and substituted for each other late in the game, Melky can provide the power as a pinch hitter while Gardner can add some speed (and better range in center) as a pinch runner or defensive replacement.

Being a switch-hitter, Melky offers better production against lefties although Gardner's tiny split of 55 PAs with a .356 BABIP doesn't bear that out quite yet. What you might not have expected is that Cabrera also has a better OPS than Brett the Jet against righties (.747 to .708). However, he's better in terms of average and power but is comparable in OBP, which is easily the most important of the three categories, especially over a limited sample.

Each of the three starters the Twins is likely to use in the ALDS is right handed: Kevin Slowey, Carl Pavano, and Scott Baker. Ditto for the Tigers with Justin Verlander, Edwin Jackson and Rick Porcello.

How should Girardi fill the CF slot, and presumably 9 hole in the line up in the games where Jose Molina isn't catching? Gardner brings two assets (speed and defense) to the table which would seem to be valuable in playoff games, but Melky has been a better hitter over the course of the season and has proved it over more at bats.

Considering all of the pitchers the Yankees are facing are right handers, should one guy start every game until further notice? If you figure that one is better than the other, is there a reason to divide the starts? Have they both earned the right to play in the postseason? Should that matter?

[Update 12:50: Greg from Pending Pinstripes has explored this topic in-depth and feels that Gardner is the clear answer. Here are three of his posts... Missing Brett Gardner, Brett Gardner's Off the DL, Should Melky Still Be Starting?, and Melky Cabrera Is Not As Clutch As You Might Think. There's good stuff in all of those entries and it's a slow day for baseball news on the internets, so check them out. If you weren't already leaning towards Gardner, that might be enough to push you over the fence.]

Game 159: Next Time You See Me

It's hard to believe that tonight will be the last regular season home game for the Yankees. It seems like just yesterday when the Stadium was the New Stadium; an overpriced, empty, band box that didn't have the atmosphere or memories or the history of the place across the street and never would.

Some of those things are still true, but the Yanks have certainly come up with more than a typical season's worth of wins (57), late inning magic (15 walk offs) and special moments (Jeter passing Gehrig) there so far.

As linked earlier today, the homers have settled down. The Peter Max gallery is gone. The urinals in the upper deck still don't have dividers, but the prices of the most expensive Legends Seats have been cut in half and holders of the other seats in that area have been compensated with extra games. Those two things have eliminated most of the conspicuously empty seats behind the plate, which mattered far more to 99.99% of Yankees fans than the fact that the tickets were overpriced to begin with.

All of those things seemed like a big deal at the time, but now the New Stadium doesn't feel so new. I think that's what most of the hand-wringing surrounding the opening of the place back in April was really about. It was a house without the familiarity of a home. The place wasn't yet ours. It was never going to be anyone else's, but the team and the fans hadn't yet formed any common bonds by way of the Stadium.

Now we have them. We have Melky's walk-offs, Luis Castillo's drop, A-Rod's solo shot in the 15th inning of a 0-0 game against the fackin' Sawx, the back to back 8th inning homers against Daniel Bard two nights later, the fight against the Blue Jays, and the blown save by Farsnworth last night. We even have the 22-4 game against the Indians, and the one where Mariano some how gave up back to back home runs. The last two a pretty painful, but all those things make the Stadium incrementally more ours.

What Joba Chamberlain does tonight on his small leg of the Yankees' victory lap will be forgotten soon enough. The Bombers have won 71% of their home games so far this year which can be considered a success by any measure. But all the good juju accrued over the 81 regular season contests at the New Stadium will be put on the table October 7th, 9th and possibly 14th. If all goes well then, it will be doubled down. And with any luck, the stakes will be raised again.

So enjoy the relatively inconsequential nature of tonight's game. Because they next time the Yanks take in the vistas of their palace in the Bronx, things most certainly won't be the same.

Next time you see me things, won't be the same,
Next time you see me things, won't be the same,
If it hurts you my darling, you only got yourself to blame.

Well, it's true, true saying, all that shines is not gold.
Well, it's true, true saying, all that shines is not gold.
Like the good book says, you gotta reap just what you sow.

Getting The Links Out

It's been a surprisingly lively day in terms of baseball talk on these here internets. Let's take a look around at what's going on.

Here is the best visual you will see explaining how the Red Sox got into the playoffs.

Big Legue Stew gives the Yankees their postseason entrance exam which is proctored by Rob Iracane of Walkoff Walk. It's worth the read just to see which of th ESPN talking heads picked them to finish third in the AL East.

You might have heard Michael Kay state matter-of-factly that the Twins were upset with the rain out on Monday night because it forced a double header. Conventional baseball wisdom says that it's harder to sweep a double header than it is to take two games from a team, but is that really true. MGL from The Book doesn't think so but the primates at BBTF think he should probably have looked at the numbers first. Somewhere in that thread (68 comments and counting) you'll find the truth.

Is Derek Jeter a thief or a liar? The Shyster wants answers. The best part of that post is the dunces on the comment thread who tell Craig to "get a real job" because they take offense to him daring to question the Captain's integrity. [Sidenote: By the URL, you can tell that the original title of that post was vintage Calcaterra ("Great Moments In Gift Giving"), but odds are an editor changed it to the more inflammatory current one. They got their desired reaction all right.]

Teddy Atlas breaks down a fight that broke out in the concourses at Yankee Stadium. It may be the cutest fight ever.

Shocker: According to Hal Steinbrenner, Joe Girardi doesn't have to win a title to return as manager.

The numbers are almost in, and it turns out that Yankee Stadium isn't quite the bandbox it was originally portrayed as. After averaging 3.78 HRs/game in April and May, the Stadium has given up 2.56 per game since then and only 2.46 since the All-Star Break.

Shelley Duncan's suspension for his role in the Posada-Carlson brawl was rescinded by the MLB. Matt thought Shelley might get off when he initially appealed it and it turns out he was right. Apparently you can kick all the ass you want, just as long as the camera's can't clearly see you and you don't start the fight.

The Indians fired Eric Wedge and his staff. Well, not really because they still have to coach the last six games of the season. This would be the rare occasion when "lame duck" actually applies.

PETCOA's run of amazingly accurate preseason predictions has come to a screeching halt. Well, maybe if Nate Silver wasn't so damn busy becoming rich and famous by predicting the results of the Presidential Election, he might have had more time to spend on his baseball simulations. Talk about misplaced priorities!

Well be back to make fun of the Royals in the preview shortly.

Godzilla Against Southpaws

Good morning, Fackers. Thanks largely Hideki Matsui's continued success against lefthanded pitchers, the Yankees celebrated yet another walk off victory last night. They needed it to stay 6.5 games up on the Red Sox who had some heroics of their own, scoring two in both the bottom of the 8th and 9th, en route to beating the Angels 9-8. However, the Angels' loss means that they Yanks are now 7 games up on the Halos for homefield advantage.

Back to the Yanks, though. Sure, Chad Gaudin put together a solid effort and Frankie Cervelli got the pie, but had Joe Girardi chose to sit Matsui like he did his other power hitting lefty, Johnny Damon, the Yanks might not have been within striking distance when the bottom of the ninth came around.

Hideki started early, as he drove in a run off of lefthanded starter Brian Tallet with a single to put the Yanks up 2-0 in the first inning. He also chipped in late, during cruch time, with the biggest hit of the game in terms of WPA, a game-tying, two run homer in the eighth inning off of lefty reliever Scott Downs.

Amazingly, 12 of Matsui's 25 home runs this season have come against southpaws despite having less than 1/3 of his plate appearances against them. He's averaging a home run in every 11.6 PAs against lefties (which would be good for 51 HRs/600PA) but only every 26.1 PAs against righties (23/600). Matsui has a pretty even platoon split over his career (including HR/PA), but this year, what he lacks in BA and OBP against lefties, he's making up for with long balls, now slugging a truly Godzillian .610.

Is this a product of the New Yankee Stadium? Eight of his 12 dingers off lefties have come at home and all of them have gone out to right or right-centerfield. His BB/K ratio against lefties is down at home, meaning he might be trying to swing for the fences more often.

He also has an even home/road split, which means that only 5 of his longballs against righties have come at TNYS. This seems to be a symptom of the rare but deadly Reverse Inverted Nick Swisheritis.

Is there some luck involved? It's baseball, isn't there always? Sixteen of his 21 doubles have come against righties and you would expect the doubles and home runs to even out on each side of the platoon split over time. His BABIP is lower against lefties too (.242/.291), but that's partially as a result of all the homers.

It seems a foregone conclusion that the Yankees will let Matsui walk at the end of the season and it's almost impossible to argue with that. They aren't going to plug up the DH spot with a guy who can no longer play the outfield. But perhaps a team like the Royals who have the lowest production out of their cleanup hitter in the majors by a staggering margin could use his help. Or perhaps he'll go back to Japan and continue to mash over there. Or maybe he'll just hang up his cleats for good.

Regardless, it's nice to see Matsui during his last our of duty make a graceful exit from the Bronx. He's been nothing short of dignified in his tenure here and it would have been terrible to see him exit with a bunch of strikeouts and errors. Credit goes to Joe Girardi and Brian Cashman who saved his knees by not letting him play the field, but most of all to Matsui who has played a crucial role in the Yankees resurgent offense this year.

Yanks Take Some Lumps, Hand Some Out

In the eight starts Sergio Mitre made for the Yankees since being called up from AAA, he gave up 4 home runs in 41 innings. Of the 61 hits he allowed, only 14 went for extra bases. As a result opponents were hitting .337 against him (insanely high), but slugging .486 (not as much).

The Serg had certainly done his fair share of sucking this year, but he did a decent job of keeping the ball in the park, mainly getting singled to death in his poorer starts.

Not tonight though. Mitre got pasted for 4 homers in 5 innings, allowing 6 runs and leaving men on 2nd and 3rd for Edwar Ramirez before getting yanked without getting an out in the 6th inning. Ramirez wriggled out of the jam, allowing only 1 run, but the shitshow raised Mitre's ERA to 7.93 and certainly didn't help his case to make the postseason roster.

Roy Halladay wasn't dominant as Yankees' bats actually accumulated 11 hits and a walk with him on the hill, but couldn't get him to break. They advanced at least one runner to second base in each of the six innings he pitched but only scored two runs off of Halladay, both in the 2nd. It was a frustrating night at the plate, something that could have contributed to what happened later in the game.

Things got a little heated in the bottom of the 8th inning when lefty reliever Jesse Carlson threw one well behind Jorge Posada's back, apparently in retaliation for Mark Melancon hitting Aaron Hill in the top of the frame. Melancon was clearly having control problems as he had walked a batter, thrown a wild pitch and another in the dirt. He hit Hill squarely in the back, but it didn't seem intentional at the time.

Carlson, on the other hand, had thrown 18 of 29 pitches for strikes and then threw one a foot or more behind Posada. Jorge didn't appreciate that and took a few steps toward Carlson saying "You don't want to do that". The dugouts emptied but the situation diffused quickly and the benches were warned. Posada ended up working a walk and advanced to second on a single by Robinson Cano.

Brett Gardner then doubled to right, scoring Posada. On his way back to the dugout, Jorge brushed up against Carlson, who turned around and yelled some choice words to Posada. The catcher, never one to back down from a confrontation, spun back and charged at Carlson, again emptying the benches but this time resulting in a full scale brawl.

Joe Girardi was ensnared in fight, walking away with a cut on his ear and a lump over his left eye. Posada and Carlson were the only two ejected although other players (ahemShelleyDuncancough) appeared to be heavily involved. We'll take a closer look at the ruckus first thing tomorrow morning, complete with a video clip. I can offer you this screenshot of the ugly lump on Carlson's head to hold you over, for now.

When the dust settled, the Jays and Yanks both added a run in the 9th inning and the final tally was 10-4 in favor of Toronto although the Yanks outhit them 15 to 13. It wasn't a good night for the Yanks, but things could get worse depending on the fall out resulting from the fracas.

Yanks Slug Their Way To Another Victory

A.J. Burnett's sub-par August bled over into September last night but the Yankees' offense launched 5 home runs in his defense and the bullpen provided a scoreless 3 2/3 innings to allow the Yankees to take the victory in Camden Yards.

Three of those homers came off of long ball machine David Martinez, two of which were courtesy of Jorge Posada. He and A.J. Burnett clearly didn't combine for a very good outing as battery mates and Jorge twice forgot the count in his at bats. In the second inning he stood the plate waiting for a pitch after ball four was called, and then three innings later he started walking towards the dugout after strike two was called, only to return to the plate to take Hernandez yard two pitches later. He also was nicked with a foul ball in the eighth inning but told Kim Jones he was okay in the postgame interview.

Nick Swisher and Eric Hinkse went back to back in the 7th, the former breaking a 6-6 tie and the latter putting the Yanks up by 3, which turned out to be the decisive margin. Amazingly, Swisher has hit more homers at Camden Yards this year (4) than he has at Yankee Stadium. He was 13 round-trippers at Oriole Park, the most of any park he hasn't called home.

Damaso Marte was the first to come out of the bullpen, throwing a perfect inning spanning from the 6th to the 7th before being replaced by David Robertson. D-Rob is working his way up the bullpen ladder, and has been used more often in high leverage situations as of late. He didn't disappoint tonight, but was lifted after giving up a double to Brian Roberts in the 8th. Phil Coke closed out the frame and Mariano Rivera picked up his second save in as many days, giving him the Major League lead with 38.

I'm sure the Yankees would have preferred a better start from Burnett but the bottom line is that they got away with it. He gave up six runs in 5 1/3 IP, but a whopping 11 of the 25 balls hit in play against Burnett dropped for hits (.423 BABIP). Hopefully he was just unlucky once again. I wouldn't point to Posada's game calling this time around as the cause for the poor performance. It seemed as if they weren't on the same page again but even if that's true, Jorgie more than compensated for it with his bat.

The Red Sox beat the Rays tonight, and the Rangers topped the Blue Jays. With the Rays sitting six games back, it's starting to look more and more like the Wild Card will come down to the Rangers and Sox with 3.5 games currently separating them.

A Few Lines On Coke

I have to admit, it wasn't until all the Twitter feeds came pouring into yesterday's live chat that I realized just how bad Phil Coke has been of late: 17 ER over his last 15.1 IP. His ERA has ballooned from 2.97 to 5.05 in that stretch.

Some may want to blame this on his over-use, as his 59 appearances are the most on the team by a good margin (Rivera is next with 52), and his 51.2 IP in relief is third behind Alfredo Aceves (61) and Rivera (53). And maybe that has something to do with it, but not very much.

Most of what's happened to Coke over these last 20 outings is just good old statistical correction. As I've stated before, particularly when evaluating relievers, I prefer to look at Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) rather than ERA. As you may recall, FIP is dependent upon the three things pitchers can control: strikeouts, walks, and home runs, and is then is adjusted to an ERA-like scale.

Unfortunately, I can't find game-by-game logs of Coke's FIP, nor do I have the free time to calculate it at the moment. However, at every point this season that I looked at his numbers, his ERA was outperforming his FIP - by a lot. These past twenty outings have served to correct that gap, so much so that after yesterday, Coke's ERA (5.05) is now worse than his FIP (4.86).

So what's the good news/bad news here? The good news is that the numbers seem to indicate that Coke has at worst leveled off, at best is due for a small improvement. The bad news is that where those numbers stand right are not all that good. The good news is the Coke's strikeout (7.14 per 9) and walk (3.14 per 9) rates are slightly better than the league averages. The bad news is his home run rate (1.57 per 9) is a half home run worse than the league average, and that's what is killing both his FIP and his ERA.

Another number to look at is Coke's batting average on balls in play (BABIP). Evidence has shown that a pitcher has little control over balls in play (which is why FIP is a valuable statistic) and that most pitchers end up having a BABIP close to the league average. Currently, Coke is at .234, far better than the league average of .304. This could suggest that we haven't seen the bottom for Coke yet; if his BABIP regresses to the mean over the final five weeks he could be in for a few more rough outings.

However, given Coke's K and HR rates, I would expect his BABIP to be a bit low. His K rate is higher than the league average, meaning there are fewer balls in play against him. Furthermore, 6.1% of batted balls off Coke are home runs, as opposed to 4.0% for the league. As such, hitters are making contact less against him compared to the league, but when they do, the ball is traveling over the fence far more often. While the latter certainly isn't a good thing, I do think that indicates that Coke's BABIP likely won't get close to the league average by season's end. Besides, any BABIP regression to the mean may be a good thing for Coke, as it could indicate that his gigantic HR rate is dropping off a bit.

So what does it all mean? Phil Coke isn't as good as he appeared to be through most of the summer and isn't as bad as he appears to be right now. He gives up way too many home runs, and Yankee Stadium may have something to do with that (18.2 AB/HR at home, 25 on the road). If he can get his home runs down, his K and BB rates suggest he is a relatively effective pitcher.

Relievers are highly volatile due to the relatively small number of innings the pitch. One or two bad outings, like yesterday or Coke's 0.1 IP 6 ER disaster in Chicago on 8/1, can have a major impact on a reliever's statistics. Despite being a former starter with a decent arsenal of pitches, and despite his numbers being good against right handed batters for most of the season, Joe Girardi has insisted upon using Coke as a match-up lefty for most of the year, with 30 of his 59 appearances lasting less than an inning.

Coke has been pretty high up in the bullpen pecking order for most of the season. He'll need to show some improvement over these last five weeks to justify keeping that status in October. If he can keep the ball in the ballpark more often, he has a good chance at making those improvements.

When Is A Slump A Slump?

Good morning, Fackers. Yes, I just made a Geology picture "joke". Doc Nardacci would be so proud... Now get ready for some logarithms! WAKE UP!

Over at the Freakonomics blog at the NYT, they used some statistics to propose a more solid definition for what actually consititues a slump (or any streak with an absence of a certain event) using A-Rod as an example (h/t BBTF):

It occurred to me that it would be pretty easy to derive a statistical standard for determining when an athlete was having a “statistically significant slump.” For example, Alex Rodriguez recently went through a homerless drought of 72 at-bats. Over his career, A-Rod has averaged one homer for every 14.2 at bats — suggesting there is about a 93 percent chance that he will not homer on any individual at bat. It would be crazy to say that he was in a home-run slump after failing to homer after just a few at bats. But the question is how many homer-less at bats is enough to be a statistically significant drought?

The answer is 42. There is less than a 5 percent chance that Rodriguez would go homerless 42 times in a row — so we can reject the hypothesis (at a 5 percent level of statistical significance) that he is going homer-less merely as a matter of chance.

They are essentially drawing the line at a 95% confindence interval (2 standard deviations), but you can set your own parameters by altering the simple formula:

Total consecutive number of bad events > log(.05)/log(probability of single bad event)

It's a little more difficult because you have to play around with it to find the right number, but you can also figure out what the likelihood of A-Rod going on a 72 at bat homerless streak (beginning in his next at bat) would be. It's about one half of one percent.

Using this method, we can determining the (im)probability that Derek Jeter would go 113 plate appearances without working a walk like he did from July 28th to August 25th. In 9656 career PAs, Jeter has walked 863 times, giving him a walk rate about approximately 8.9%. This makes the odds of him going that long without a base on balls 0.0025% or 1 in 4,000.

Fun stuff, huh? No? Well at least it gives you a way, numerically, to prove that Tim McCarver is an idiot. You're welcome.

Yanks Go Yard, Go Home

Tonight's game was a vintage late summer contest with the gametime temperature sitting at a balmy 80 degrees with the threat of thunderstorms lurking. At one point, the grounds crew was in position to deploy the tarp but it was never necessary. It was far closer to a so-called playoff atmosphere than the either two games before the first pitch was thrown.

However, Derek Jeter quickly quieted the Fenway crowd by ripping said first pitch into the home bullpen in right centerfield. Hideki Matsui did almost the exact same thing to Beckett's first pitch of the second inning.

In the bottom of the 2nd, the Red Sox continued their two out hit barrage that started last night with a double, a single and another double but Mike Lowell, Rocco Baldelli and Jason Varitek to bring the score even at 2-2. The Yanks answered with two of their own in the 3rd on three straight singles by the top third of the order and a RBI ground out by A-Rod. An error by Robinson Cano in the fourth allowed another Sox run, but the Bombers kept their foot on the gas, plating runs each of the first five innings.

Matsui added a dinger in the 8th for his 2nd multi-HR game of the series while A-Rod and Cano each went yard as well. Amazingly, the Yanks only had 3 at bats with runners in scoring position, but didn't need them with all the long balls that were flying.

Sabathia threw 118 pitches and due to the fact that 80 of them were strikes, didn't walk a batter. Nor did Beckett who threw 87 of his 120 pitches over 8 innings for strikes. Beckett gave up all 8 of the Yankees' runs and was tagged with 5 homers for the first time in his career. Allowing 4 runs and 8 hits over 6 2/3, Sabathia picked up his 15th win on the season and fifth in a row. His ERA is now lower than Beckett's, despite being 0.20 higher when the game started.

Phil Hughes and Mariano Rivera shut down the Sox for the final 2 1/3 innings and the Yanks pulled out of Boston last night having taken the series, turned a road trip which people were suggesting would test their dominance at 7-3. I'd say they passed that "test".

They boys are rewarded with another day off today, before they begin a 6 game homestand and host the Rangers on Tuesday. Derek Jeter seemed to be nursing some sort of a leg injury he picked up during the third inning and he could probably use a breather anyway. The lead is 7.5 games once again while the Sox edge the Rangers by one and the Rays by 3 in the Wild Card.

Hitting The Power Switch

I came across this post at The Yankee Universe this morning about the rarest feats in baseball and started perusing the list or accomplishments.

One of these feats was hitting a home run from both sides of the plate in the same game, which has happened 246 times in the history of the game. Not as rare as a no-hitter or a cycle, but certainly uncommon. I seemed to remember Melky Cabrera doing it fairly recently and it turns out it was back on April 22nd, and I had actually written a post about his performance in that game in which he ended a 14 inning showdown with a walk-off HR (from the left side).

Another thing I did not realize was how laden with Yankees the American League side of that list is. There have been four occurrences of a switch hitter hitting a home run as both a righty and a lefty this year and all four were by Yankees (Melky, Swisher and Teixeira twice). In fact, all of the last six and 10 of the past 12 were accomplished by current members of the Yankees' normal starting line up. The top three on the active career list (aside from Tony Clark who is technically "active" but not currently on a team) all play for the Yanks: Posada (8), Swisher (8), and Teixeira (7). Had they signed Carlos Beltran (6) when they had the chance, they would have the next in line as well.

Admittedly, this stat can be a little flukey but the Yanks have 72 HRs by switch hitters this year, tops in the MLB. That is far more than the Angels with 41 and twice as many as the next team, the Rays with 36.

The presence of switch hitters with power on the Yankee roster undoubtedly makes it difficult on opposing managers. On any given day the Yanks can plug in 4 guys who can go deep from either side of the plate, making a pitching change aimed at them much less effective and pinch hitting for them virtually unnecessary.

We have been spoiled in this respect since we rarely have to sit through National League-style move/counter-moves in the late innings of games. Perhaps part of the reason I loathe to see Joe Girardi make two out pitching changes based solely on the side of the plate the batter digs in on is that opposing managers have the option to do it to the Yankees far less frequently.

In any event, the Yanks seem to have the market cornered on switch hitters with power via the additions of Nick Swisher and Mark Teixeira this past offseason. And it's one of the many reasons they are on pace to score about 900 runs this year, up from only 789 in 2008.

It's Linktastic!

So, I don't have anything specific in mind to write about at the moment, probably because winning breeds apathy. Unless of course you are a Red Sox fan (who doesn't read this blog), in which case it breeds douchebaggery. In any event, here it's what's becoming a daily cop out for me: A collection of links to a bunch of things which are interesting but not worth an entire post devoted to them for differing reasons. Enjoy!

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Mike from RAB thinks the Yanks should deal for a starter. It doesn't seem like one is necessary at the moment, but by the time the need arises, it might be too late. [Update: Joe looks at the bullpen as well]

I take no pleasure in seeing the Mets fail, but I can't say the same about this. At least God still loves them.

Joel Sherman takes the Mets to task for the lack of order within their organization. He compares it to the earlier versions of the Yankees, when there wasn't a designated power structure and almost anyone could have The Boss's ear, "It might be the GM, a scout, a friend, a cab driver". He sees the recent issues with Tony Bernazard as a manifestation of such structural issues. Don't plan on listening to Joel on 1050 ESPN Radio anytime soon, though. He got streeted yesterday (by no fault of his own).

This is terrible for Donnie Baseball. Upshot? I bet you didn't know the term "Battery By Bodily Waste" existed...

Craig from Shysterball doesn't get the Red Sox number retirement policy. I do, it goes a little something like "Well, he's gawtta be in the HoF, ten yeahs with the Sawx, but nawt if left us fwah the fackin' Yanks..."

Is Jesus untouchable? (Montero that is...)

Who was the last pitcher to throw 300 innings in a single season? The man started 38 games that year, went 24-9, and was part of a World Series winning team. The season included 13 CGs and only 4 starts shorter than 7 innings. And he was 35 years old when he did it. The answer can be found in the tags (or by clicking that link).

1.98/game to 3.25/game. Yes, it would seem that homers are easier to come by in the New Stadium.

And totally off-topic, but how awesome is this?

Here's the original, and a shot for shot comparison.

Nice Try, Sports Guy

It was only a matter of time until Bill Simmons weighed in on the demise of David Ortiz. We've already had some fun with it, but not nearly as much as our buddy Simon on Sports who did some digging on FanGraphs and found out that they estimate Ortiz's value on the free agent market to be negative $5.2M. 

In his most recent ESPN The Magazine column, Simmons sounds like he's left Papi for dead:

At first, we Sox fans thought we were just watching an early-season slump. Then three weeks passed and we started worrying. The guy couldn't hit the ball out of the infield. His bat was so slow he had to cheat on fastballs; even then, he couldn't catch up. One swing a night made him look like the drunkest batter in a beer league softball game. Look, I've seen slumps. This was different. This was the collapse of a career.

I'm not ready to throw dirt on the guy quite yet. His struggles weren't quite as bad as Ortiz, but at the begining of last year, everyone had completely given up on a 36 year old Carlos Delgado and he ended up raising his OPS by over 200 points in the second half.

Like I did when the Manny HGC story came out, Simmons assumed that there was a good chance Papi's torrid mid-00's were a product of the juice, but he's since changed his tune. 

He just looked old. It reminded me of watching Jim Rice fall apart in the late '80s, when he lost bat speed overnight the way you and I lose a BlackBerry. That was painful too.

By mid-May, I was pondering another theory: Maybe Papi was older than he claimed. In Seth Mnookin's book Feeding the Monster, he recounts the story of how Boston nearly blew the chance to acquire Ortiz because they were concerned that he was much older than the media guide said.

This is an intersting theory, and right off the bat it seems to make a lot of sense. High profile Dominican guys like Vlad Guerero and Miguel Tejada have both been busted for fudging their ages recently, so the when performance seems out of line, it's reasonable to question that. 

Watching Papi flounder now, I'd believe he's really 36 or 37 (not 33) before I'd believe PEDs are responsible.

If he was three years older, it would make it more likely to me that Ortiz used PEDs.

On the surface, Ortiz being older seems to explain away his decline and works to rationalize him at this stage of his career. However, Ortiz's prime already took place in his late 20's and early 30's. If you take Simmons' lower estimate and add three years to his age, he would have hit 10 home runs at the age of 27, when a player is nearing the end of their ostensible physical prime. 

In Papi's defense he made a remarkably steady rise to being a power hitter, increasing his home run totals and slugging percentage every year from 2000 to his apex in 2006. The incredible (and somewhat suspicious) thing about Papi's carrer arc is that the biggest jump in home runs (+11) came when he went from the 12th best home run hitting park in 2002 (HHH Metrodome), to the 25th (Fenway), a layout that does not favor left handed hitters. 

Papi's late peak wounldn't be totally unprecedented. Raul Ibanez's highest home run total was 33 at age 34. However Ibanez didn't fall off a cliff like Papi. Despite hitting in Seattle, one of the very worst home run hitter's parks in the league, Ibanez continued with 21 and 23 HRs over the next two seasons and will almost certainly set another high water mark this year. Jason from IIATM,S can't help but wonder if something in up with him too. 

Every player ages, but not too many become totally useless in the matter of one season like Ortiz has, or goes on a sudden homer binge at age 37 like Ibanez. Unfortunantely for them, a significant portion of those who have these dramatic late career fluctuations are linked to steroid use, so the suspicions are going to swirl. 

Game 43: Let's Start Rap Over

We all knew a loss was going to happen eventually, but that didn't make last night's game any easier to watch. With the first pitch of the game being sent into the seats by Jimmy Rollins, the Phillies set the tone for evening and it was all downhill for the Yanks from there. Momentum can be a fickle bitch and the kinetic energy accrued by having all the breaks go your way can vanish as quickly as it came.

Today, Andy Pettitte, owner of a 4-1 record but a 4.18ERA opposes J.A. Happ, he of a 2-0 and 2.49 resume. However, Happ's numbers might be a bit deceiving since this is his first start of the year, as he is filling in for Chan Ho Park. His longest outing was 3 2/3 innings in a losing effort against the Mets a little over three weeks ago, mopping up for Jamie Moyer who was shellacked for 7 runs in 2 1/3. He's thrown three innings only one other time this season and that was back on April 19th. Happ hasn't pitched since May 15th, so he should be rested enough to reach the requisite 100 pitches if Charlie Manuel so chooses.

For the Yankees, A-Rod is DH'ing today and Ramiro Pena will man third base. As a lefty, Pettitte should have a bit of an advantage over the Phillies three most dangerous hitters this season, Ryan Howard, Chase Utley and Raul Ibanez (all southpaws). We'll see if Andy can buck the recent trend and keep the ball in the park today. As of now, it's a calm 71 degrees, so he won't have the heat or wind to blame if the shots start sailing.

Cliff, Meredith and I will be up at the Stadium today as the Yankees look to erase the memory of last night's game and start things over.

Let's start love over,
Back to the way things were,
Forget about them,
Cause all we got is us,
We can make it,
Said if we try,
I want to start love over,
Let's make it do or die.

Dueling Projections

I have taken considerable heat for my post on Nate Silver's A-Rod projections in our comment section and elsewhere. As always, here at Fack Youk, we subscribe to Benjamin Disraeli's quote "It is easier to be critical than right". As the result of some goading from a commenter named Fridas Boss at Baseball Think Factory, I have used some cutting edge statistical techniques to develop my own projection for how many home runs Alex Rodriguez will amass over the course of his career.

First, for the record, here are Nate's projections again (with A-Rod's past two years).

One thing I didn't notice before was that Silver's projection lasts two years beyond A-Rod's current contract. I'm going to go out on a limb here, but if A-Rod hits four home runs in 2017 and is at 726 total, I don't think the Yankees, or any team for that matter, are going to sign him.

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My method was extremely complex and exhaustive. Here are the steps I took.

1. Used the later years of Frank Robinson, Eddie Murray, Hank Aaron, Willie Mays and Babe Ruth to see, in total, how some of the greatest home run hitters of all-time have produced during their decline phases. I excluded Barry Bonds because of his atypical middle aged physical metamorphosis, despite the fact that he a A-Rod are both alleged PED users.



2. Combined that and A-Rod's previous totals to develop a trend line for doubles.



3. And for slugging percentage, factoring in his declining speed and the negative impact it will have on his SLG%.
   
   
4. Combined those three lines into a conglomerate trend line I called his Projected Power Index (PPI)



5. Estimated the ballpark effects of the New Yankee Stadium based on the prevailing weather patterns in April through September and the way it the diamond now faces.
   
   
6. Used all of these in conjunction with his previous home run numbers, taking into account his steroid use in Texas (increased production minus park effects) to create his Projected Home Runs (PHRs).



7. Decided all of that that would be way too difficult and possibly counterproductive, and instead picked the number "792" which would ensure that if he breaks the record, I will be closer than Nate by a couple of HRs. I then back-filled the numbers making sure there wasn't a drop off every single year since that was something I took issue with.



8. Behold:

One of the things I said in the last post, but probably should have emphasized more was:

I realize that the most reliable way to predict future outcomes is by analyzing past events. However, the flaw in using this methodology is that it becomes impossible to predict when someone will do unprecedented things. Simply put, how is analyzing 20 guys, none of whom is the career home run leader, ever going to result in the simulation predicting A-Rod will break the all-time record?

Commenter scatterbrian nailed it:

It seems futile to attempt projecting a career that is an outlier. Rodriguez had 91 extra-base hits in his age-20 season, so we're dealing with a pretty rare player as it is. (DiMaggio and Pujols each had 89 in their age-21 seasons.) Using guys like Grich, Caminiti and Sandberg as comps doesn't seem fair to Rodriguez. Combined those three have only four seasons with 30+ homers. Rodriguez has hit less that 35 just one time.

The point of an individual projection, at least to me, is not to produce a seemingly exhaustive and all-encompassing methodology. The objective is to be right.

PETCOA is obviously more complex and accurate overall than anything I could ever hope to construct. However, the point of the previous post was to call into question a method that is only going to produce one result: A-Rod falling short of the all-time home run record.

Silver's projection serves to remind us that A-Rod breaking Hank Aa-- er, Barry Bonds' record is far from a foregone conclusion based on pretty much every career path that has taken shape in the history of baseball. I just don't think A-Rod fits that mold.

Only time will tell.

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Oh and by the way, I made a similar projection for his home run totals this year, based on his performance in Spring Training. You probably won't believe it, but he is currently on pace for 162 HRs in 2009: A-Rod homers in first spring game [ESPN]