Are You Ready For Some Baseball?

Good morning Fackers. It's finally Friday. This is of course a good thing due to it being the end of yet another work week. But more importantly the seemingly interminable wait for another game of Yankee baseball is over - Mother Nature willing. Five whole days. And we thought the All-Star Break was long this year.

Speaking of the All-Star Break, just prior to it the Yankees had a disastrous three game series in Anaheim during which they were swept and outscored by a total of eleven runs. The end of that series marked the start of the longest hiatus the Yankees had this year - until now. The new longest break will end with a series against those same Angels, except the stakes are much higher this time.

The Yankees' 2009 regular season featured several key moments: the return of Alex Rodriguez in Baltimore; the three consecutive walk-offs against the Twins, the surprise visit from Brian Cashman in Atlanta, a momentum swinging ejection of Joe Girardi, Francisco Cervelli's first Major League home run and the early August sweep in the Bronx that finally turned the tables on the Red Sox. While all of those were positive events, it was perhaps getting swept in southern California that was the most critical turning point of the Yankee season. They exited that series at 51-37, 3 games back in the AL East. They went 52-22 the rest of the way, finishing with the best record in baseball.

Those last 74 games included four against the Angels. The Yankees went 3-1 in those games to even the season series at five apiece, but thanks to that three game set in July, they finished with a minus ten run differential against the Halos. From a Pythagorean perspective, the Yankees picked up about three quarters of win beyond what they should have, thanks in large part to three of their victories coming by a single run.

Over the course of this series, much will be made of the Yankees struggles against the Angels during Mike Scioscia's tenure, particularly in the 2002 and 2005 Division Series. While there's no denying that, it doesn't much matter. These Yankees and Angels are far removed even from last year's versions. This year they split, and while the Yanks may owe probability three fourths of a win heading into this series, they were able to carry an even larger IOU against the Twins over to 2010.

The Yankees last played a game Sunday, in the final baseball game ever played at the Metrodome. Incidentally, we thought the Yankees played their last game there way back in July. Oddly enough, the three game sweep at the hands of the Angels immediately followed. After the Angels took those three, the Yankees took three of the next four. Seven games. Four Angels wins, three Yankees wins. Let's hope those numbers reverse themselves over the next seven games. This series ought to be a good one.

The Last One To Depart The 'Dome

FOTB Simon (on Sports) spotted this gem of a picture up on the AP photo wire at Yahoo.

You probably noticed this fellow making his mad dash during the bottom of the 9th inning last night, donning a Bert Blyleven jersey and showing remarkable awareness of the situation by taking off before the possibility of a game ending double play. It was the smartest running-related decision made by someone associated with the Twins all weekend.

Amazingly, the dude made it all the way to the baggie on right field before being corralled by the army of retirees the Metrodome retains as "security".

Nice try, my Burt Blyleven-boosting, bird-blazing buddy, you almost made it.

I'm not sure what's on the other side of the hefty bag, but I think we can agree that none of the Paul Blarts chasing him down were going to apprehend him once he got over it. He may never have left the Metrodome.

ALDS Game 3: Idle Time

When the Yankees left the field victorious exactly two weeks ago, they had just clinched the AL East and the best overall record in the American League. In doing so, they rendered the season's final six games, split by another Thursday off day, as essentially meaningless. It also gave them the right to choose which ALDS schedule they wanted to play.

When the Yankees left the field victorious exactly one week ago, they had just finished the regular season. They were off the next two days, still not knowing who their ALDS opponent would be, as the Twins and Tigers needed one extra game and three extra innings to decide the AL Central.

In order to allow themselves the option to use only three starting pitchers in the ALDS, the Yankees chose the "A" schedule. So, after playing Game One on Wednesday, the Yankees sat through the extra off day on Thursday, and then enjoyed an off day for travel yesterday following Friday night's Game Two thriller.

All of which is a long way of saying that by the time the first pitch is thrown tonight, the Yankees will have played just eight games in the last fourteen days, six of them meaningless, and just two games in the last seven days. In other words, they've had a lot of idle time on their hands of late.

Tonight it will be Idle Time of a different sort at the Metrodome. Carl Pavano, infamously dubbed the "American Idle" by The Post's George A. King III during his four injury plagued years in New York, takes the hill for the Twinkies. While no Yankee fan is fond of Pavano, we may have something of a debt of gratitude to him at present. In un-Pavano-like fashion, he asked for the ball on short rest on the season's final day. While Pavano didn't have a good start (5.2 IP, 8 H 4 ER), it was enough to keep the putrid Royals at bay, and he picked up the "W" in what was essentially a must win game for the Twins, forcing Tuesday's one game playoff and further depleting the Twins' starting staff heading in to the ALDS.

The Yankees had two shots at Pavano this year, both coming while he was still with Cleveland, and both times they failed to extract their pound of flesh. In 13.1 innings of work against the Yanks, Pavano pitched to a 2.70 ERA and allowed just 12 baserunners, but didn't record a decision. Less recently, Pavano made two appearances against the Yankees in the 2003 World Series, one start and once in relief, and allowed just one run and nine baserunners in nine innings of work. Despite his reputation of lacking in intestinal fortitude, Pavano pitched 19.1 innings in that 2003 post-season, going 2-0 while posting a 1.40 ERA and 1.03 WHIP. Here's hoping those small trends get derailed tonight.

Opposing Pavano will be a far more experienced post-season starter, the third and final different starting pitcher the Yankees intend to use in this series. Andy Pettitte will make the 36th post-season start of his career tonight, all but four of them coming with the Yankees. He's 14-9 with a 3.96 ERA in those games, but has shown a knack for coming up big in the biggest games. He's made nine post-season starts (eight with NYY) with an opportunity to end a series. In those games, Pettitte is 3-2 (his teams are 5-4), with a 4.47 ERA and 1.50 WHIP. Subtract out his disastrous pitch-tipping start in Game 6 of the 2001 World Series, and Pettitte is 3-1 with a 3.58 ERA and 1.37 WHIP in those games. Pettitte faced the Twins in Game 2 of 2003 ALDS. With the Yankees in an 0-1 hole, Pettitte gave up one run and allowed seven baserunners while fanning ten in seven innings of work and earning the victory.

The Yankees return to their normal line-up tonight. For the Twins, Brendan Harris replaces the injured Matt Tolbert at third base. Tolbert has been removed from the Twins' roster all together. Jason Kubel returns to RF after DHing Friday, Denard Span slides back to center, Carlos Gomez goes back to the bench, and Jose Morales enters the line up as the DH.

When the Yankees left Minnesota in July, we bid a premature adieu to the Metrodome. The Twins were a .500 team following that Yankee sweep, and were four games back in the AL Central with a little less than half the season to play. The Twins certainly weren't out of it at that point, but it did take a historically unlikely late season comeback for them to reach the post-season. They now return home with their backs to the wall. While the Metrodome has been lauded as one of the biggest homefield advantages in all of baseball, the Twins have lost seven straight post-season games there, four of them against the Yankees. With any luck, the Yankees will give the dome its final send off tonight.

A game like Friday's has the potential to suck the life out of the losing team; I'm hopeful the Yanks can put them to sleep for good tonight. With the Angels completing an improbable sweep of the Red Sox this afternoon, they have the luxury of being off until Friday, when the ALCS begins. As such, they'll be able to rest up and set up their pitching as they see fit. It would behoove the Yankees to wrap up their ALDS business tonight as well, as it would allow them the same benefits the Angels are currently enjoying. Another four days off would be quite boring, and wouldn't exactly be ideal after all the down time in the past two weeks. But those would be awfully nice problems to have right now given how the Yankees' last three Division Series played out. Time to shake out the pain of the past three post-season series and ensure a little more idle time.



I might need some assistance if I don't get my pass
Looking for some time off to shake this pain out of my past
That island's not too far away, I think that I can swim
Maybe I'll just stick around and sift through this trash bin

Let 'em dance, let 'em sing
There'll be time enough for me
Daylight colors off the shore, I lay silent on the floor
Slowly sipping on my tea

Idle time brings idle wind
Ease your mind
Fall asleep again

Twins & Tigers Thrill Through Twelve

Good morning, Fackers. Did you see that game last night? If you didn't, you're probably already regretting it. It was one of the all-too-rare moments in sports in general and baseball in particular when a game with huge implications delivers huge drama. One of the few times that we can look at incredible over hyping that led up to the event after the fact and it actually seems less ridiculous. It would have been a great game had you stripped away the context of what was at stake.

With the spotlight pretty much all to themselves on a quiet Tuesday night in the world of sports, with their seasons on the line, the Twins and Tigers played like it. I hate do trot out the old boxing metaphors about "trading blows" and "having each other on the ropes" but there isn't really any other way to characterize the changes in momentum. The game even went 12 rounds innings.

We've been lucky with the last three play-in games. The Rockies and Padres came down to a play at the plate in '07, the White Sox and Twins last year turned on an 8th inning home run and ended on a great catch, but this year's version might have been the best of the trio.

Check out the WPA graph. It looks like the results of a polygraph test.

I didn't "see" the game until the bottom of the 10th inning. I was doing some painting (housework, not art) and started with the Tigers' radio broadcast on WXYT with Dan Dickerson and Jim Price. Then I flipped over to the Minnesota guys to see if I liked it any better, but that was a terrible, terrible mistake. John "Gordo" Gordon has a laughable token radio voice and constantly places the emphasis on the wrong words. I'd say he's a cut-rate Jon Miller, but that would be giving him too much credit.

I stuck with the Detroit fellows until I had to run an errand and got the ESPN Radio team for the whole 9th and top of the 10th inning. I believe it was Gary Thorne and Dave Campbell and those guys were excellent. I finally got in front of the TV for the bottom of the 10th until the end and by then I wasn't paying attention to a word Chip Caray said.

There's nothing like some mindless labor and a good baseball game on the radio. If you're with around other people or the game isn't compelling, it's easy to lose track of what's going on. But when you are alone, applying coat upon coat of latex paint to a metal door, it's easy to get entranced in a hardball battle as good as the one last night.

After striking out one batter in each of his last three starts, twenty year-old Rick Porcello matched his season high in K's with 8, all swinging. Neyer surmised yesterday that he might have been a little tired down the stretch, so maybe the fact that he hadn't pitched in a week cured what ailed him. The kid should just be starting his junior year in college but instead he was starting a game with an MLB team's playoff chances in his hands, and did a pretty damn good job.

He pitched 5 2/3, and allowed two runs, one earned. However, the unearned run scored on Porcello's error - a botched pickoff throw to first in the third inning that could have been worse had it not his Twins first base coach Jerry White. He had nearly picked off Denard Span a few throws earlier but made the rookie mistake of not realizing that you usually only get one good chance to get someone snoozing with a big lead. The earned one came in the 6th when he allowed a solo homer to Jason Kubel.

In so far as it's okay to like a Boras bonus baby from another team, I think I like Rick Porcello. One more of these and I'm sold.

The villain in this game, aside from the Metrodome, was clearly Miguel Cabrera. The (wife) slugger was booed vociferously anytime he came to the plate or touched the ball. He responded in a big way though, with a double in the gap in his first at bat and a two run homer that temporarily put the Tigers ahead 3-0 and hushed the crowed in his second.

The hero was probably another man named Cabrera... Orlando. He hit a two run homer in the 7th inning that gave the Twins a one run lead and afterwards said it was the best game he ever played in.

In the top of the 9th, the Tigers looked to be set up with runners on 1st and 3rd with no one out but Joe Nathan struck out Placido Polanco looking and then got Magglio Ordonez to line out into a double play to short.

Brandon Inge had a double and an RBI, but also a diving, game-saving catch in the 9th on a bounce that almost certainly would have scored the winning run. I just listened to the highlight on MLB.com and in typical Chip Caray fashion he declared that the play saved a run but didn't acknowledge that said run would have ended the game, since the score was tied at 4-4 and it was the bottom of the 9th. Get ready!

Ryan Rayburn was very nearly the goat after he badly misplayed a single into a triple, putting what proved to be the tying run on third with no one out. He partially redeemed himself by catching a line out by Nick Punto and gunning down Alexi Casilla at home plate to end the inning. The speedy Casilla blundered by tagging up a moment too late, and was tagged out by Gerald Laird by the slimmest of margins.

Casilla got some redemption of his own in the bottom of the 12th when he lined a one out single to right field to drive in Carlos Gomez from third and send the Twins to New York.

Get some rest, Twinkies. Don't stay up too late savoring your thrilling victory. Wouldn't want you to be all tired for the game tomorrow...

Game 163: Find Out

It's not a Yankees game, but I thought I'd put together a preview for the match up between the Twins and Tigers taking place at 5:00. Yes, folks, 5:00. A lot of you will probably be stuck at work for the first few innings and it's not going to carry the night like a typical 7:00 game would, but it should be entertaining nonetheless.

The Tigers have completely backed themselves into this position after taking 2 out of 4 head to head games against the Twins which most everyone assumed would be enough to secure the AL Central. It was not, however, as the lost two out of their last three to the White Sox and the Twins swept from the Royals. Denard Span doesn't want to say the Tigers choked, but well, he kind of did.

The Tigers take the field under the dark cloud of Miguel Cabrera's domestic incident that some are saying should lead to his suspension for the rest of the season. Other, more rational people are saying that the Tigers already knew about this incident on Saturday and let him play anyway, and if they bench him now, it will only be for PR purposes. As a Yankee fan, I hope they let him play in tonight's game, have him contribute to a Tigers' win, and then suspend him for the postseason. Am I right?

Tonight may also be the last game at the Metrodome unless the Twins, their homer hankies and the baggy have anything to say about that. Joe Posnanski compares the building roundly-despised disgrace to baseball to a movie villain who just won't die. Curtis Granderson had already bid it adieu last month. I had hoped the Yankees would never have to play there again but now there a relative coin flip will determine if that is the case. Rob Neyer thinks it might be better than that. David Pinto seconds that motion, as does the betting line, Baseball Prospectus and Cool Standings so what do I know?

The bottom line for our purposes, which FanGraphs reaffirmed and we Yankee bloggers have been saying for a while now is that either way, game #163 is good news for the Bombers. Whoever wins is going to have a plane sitting on the runway, ready to sweep them off to New York where the Yanks will be waiting, after working through a leisurely day of meetings and workouts.

The second ever inductee of the Fack Youk Hall of Fame, Rick Porcello starts for the Tigers tonight. While Neyer points out that he has only struck out 10 batters over his last 33 innings (and 3 over his last 17 1/3), Porcello has a 3.00 ERA over his last 7 starts. He held the Twins to one run over 6 1/3 innings exactly one week ago, but that could work against him since the hitters have seen him recently.

Scott Baker will take the Twins playoff lives into his hands this evening. Baker faced the Tigers last Thursday and held them to 1 unearned run over 5 innings but needed 106 pitches to make it through those 15 outs. He'd been unimpressive in his 4 starts before that though, giving up 14 runs in 23 innings (5.48 ERA).

Tonight should be fun to watch. The Yankees get the chance to play emperor and spectate while these two teams fight 'til the death, awaiting the winner. Whichever way it goes, it will be good to finally find out who the Yanks' first round opponent will be.

[Minnesota is basically Canada, so it's time for everyone's (well, my) favorite Canadian rapper, Classified...]

(You gonna find out)
Sooner or later,
(You gonna find out)
Are you ready for this?
(You gonna find out)
Tell 'em who it is...

One Reason Not To Hate Brett Favre

When the Twins' ninth inning comeback fell short in the nitecap of yesterday's doubleheader againt Detroit, the Tigers ran their AL Central Lead back to two games. Their magic number is now four. Both the Twins and Tigers have 5 games left, two of them head-to-head. If the Tigers sweep the two they clinch; if the Twins do, they're dead even with three games to go.

Of course, all of this matters to the Yankees as they won't know who their ALDS opponent is until the AL Central is settled. While much of the talk around the Yankees these days is of the "who would you rather face?" variety, my preference isn't so much who they face but rather how long it takes to determine that. If given my druthers, this race would go down to the season's final day, not just for intrigue purposes, but also to force both clubs to continue to play their regulars and trot out their top starters.

Because of the doubleheader yesterday, both clubs have a dilemma for Saturday: bring back one of yesterday's starters on short rest, or send an inferior, but rested, pitcher to the mound with the season hanging in the balance. For the Tigers, the fact that 20 year old Rick Porcello was one of yesterday's pitchers makes the decision all the more complicated. Porcello has already thrown 165 innings this year - 40 more than his previous high - and bringing him in on short rest would increase his risk of future injury. Instead, the Tigers likely would elect to throw ace Justin Verlander on short rest Saturday, even though he's thrown 120+ pitches in each of his last three starts, including a season high 129 last night. For the Twins, "ace" Nick Blackburn would likely come back on short rest Saturday, and it looks like he'd draw Zack Greinke.

If the Yankees pick ALDS schedule "A" as expected, Game 1 would be next Wednesday, meaning that if the Saturday starter of the AL Central champ pitches that game, it would also be on short rest.

Here's where things can get really interesting. Should the Tigers and Twins finish the regular season tied, an additional play in game would be held to determine the division champion. The Twins lead the season series against the Tigers 10-6, so regardless of the outcome of the next two games, the Twins would host any potential play in game.

However, root-of-all-evil Brett Favre and his Minnesota Vikings are scheduled to play his former team, the Green Bay Packers on Monday Night Football next week. The Vikings' Metrodome lease gives them priority over all non-World Series games and the NFL has already announced the game will not be moved. There's no way ESPN, who is actively trying to set a Favre-based Guiness World Record to promote the game, would pass up on the ratings bonanza. As such, the AL Central championship game wouldn't be held until Tuesday, meaning that whoever pitches that game will have one fewer day of rest heading into the ALDS. So in a way, thank you Brett you waffling, self-centered attention whore.

All else being equal, I think I'd prefer to face the Twins in the ALDS. They appear to have a much weaker squad, particularly in the starting rotation, are missing a key offensive weapon in Justin Morneau, are 0-7 against the Yankees this year, and have been ALDS fodder for the Yanks in '03 and '04. However, I'd much rather have the Central go undecided until next Tuesday and play the Tigers than have the Twins come back and clinch it Saturday. These will certainly be an interesting few days.

One Fewer Crappy Ballpark

Considering they play in the AL Central, it might be a little too soon to throw dirt on the Twins' playoff chances and hence another trip to the Hubert H. Humphrey Metrodome. However, we might as well touch on it now while the experience is fresh in our collective minds, just in case.

It's great that the beat writers found the place to be a nice work environment. Tyler Kepner enjoyed the climate control and the open air press box. Peter Abraham appreciated the view from the box, the fact that it situated only a few flights of stairs from the field and the friendly employees of the Metrodome.

Bully for those gents, but you guys aren't baseball writers, are you? Do you live in Minnesota? Google Analytics says a few of you do. But by and large, to us fans, the Metrodome was nothing more than a gigantic set that one of the TV shows that we like to watch used one or two times a year. And it was a tremendously shitty one at that.

As usual, Cliff from Bronx Banter nails it:

Baseball simply wasn’t meant to be played indoors, on artificial surface, under a baseball-colored roof that disguised fly balls, in front of huge air conditioning vents that mysteriously blew harder when the home team was batting, with a oversized Hefty bag for an outfield wall.

Next year, the Twins will be playing outdoors, on grass, in an actual ballpark rather than a multi-purpose dome. Had that been the case on Thursday, the game would have taken place on a lovely, warm, sunny afternoon. Instead it took place inside under gloomy artificial light.

I'm not sure that Target Field is going to be the greatest place to play in April or October, when the average highs are in the mid-fifties and the lows are in the 30's, but getting to watch a few more baseball games played outside will be a cosmic leap forward. So good riddance to the baggy, and the vampire seats, and the field turf. The aesthetics of watching baseball on TV just got better.

Game 84: On The Run

Almost exactly one month ago, A.J. Burnett tossed a 2 2/3 inning, 5 hit, 5 walk, 5 run clunker against the Red Sox and Josh Beckett. At that point, Burnett had a 4.89 ERA, a 4-3 record and some assurance for his detractors:

"When I do get on that run, it's going to be impressive," he said. "I promise you that."

In his four starts since then, Burnett has notched three wins, with his only loss coming when he threw 6 1/3 innings of one run ball against the Marlins in a game the Yankees lost 2-1. On that run he predicted, A.J. has thrown 27 1/3 innings and given up just three runs, good for a 0.99 ERA, lowering his season mark to 3.83 in the process. He's allowed only 16 hits and walked 12 while striking out 33 and has easily been the Yankees best starter over that time.

A last minute scratch by the Twins swaps Glen Perkins (out with a fever) for rookie Anthony Swarzak, who was originally supposed to be starting tomorrow night. The big 23 year old righty has made five starts in the Majors this year, with his first and last being the most impressive. Against the Brewers on May 23rd, he threw 7 shutout innings en route to the victory, and he equaled that feat against the Cubs on June 13th. He was sent down to Triple A Rochester shortly thereafter, where he has sported a 2.34 ERA over his 10 starts in 2009.

Swarzak's number are much better away from the HHH than at home and he will have to attempt to correct that while facing what is close to the most potent line-up the Yankees have to offer. Jorge Posada will be behind the plate, A-Rod at third, Hideki Matsui in the DH slot and Damon, Gardner and Swisher manning the outfield, from left to right.

After thumping the Twins last night, the Yanks are 5-0 against them this year have have won 17 of their last 23 meetings, dating back to 2006. A win tonight would be the Yankees' 1100th against the Twins franchise, although that record dates all the way back to April 29th, 1901, when the Yankees were still the Baltimore Orioles and the Twins were the Washington Senators.

More relevantly, if Burnett can continue his dominant charge, the Bombers could notch their 50th win of the season tonight. The Yanks aren't in Kansas, but don't forget that the Central Time start pushes the game back til 8.

[synthesizer noises]

Game 83: The Arrival

The last time the Yankees entered a series against the Twins, they were sitting at 17-17 and the hand-wringing among Yankees fans was reaching a crescendo. It was getting a little late in the season to be at .500. That night marked was A-Rod's first night back in the Bronx and the last time they would see that winning percentage (hopefully for the season). The game was highlighted by a Brett Gardner inside-the-park homer and a walk-off hit by Melky. It was the first of three walk-offs by the Yankees in that series, one in which they swept all four games by a grand total of 5 runs.

Minnesota actually came into that game a half game ahead of the Yanks, but that series sent them spinning in opposite directions. With three games decided by one run, and the other by two runs, it could have easily gone the other way. Instead, the series was a major part of a 9 game winning streak for the Yanks whereas the Twins lost 6 in a row and were at .500 as recently as June 29th. At 43-40, the Twins are 1.5 games behind the Tigers in the AL Central but 5.5 games behind the Bombers in the Wild Card standings.

Taking the hill tonight and looking to avenge his poorest start since Opening Day will be CC Sabathia. Despite striking out 8 in 5 2/3, the big fella got tagged for 6 earned runs and the loss last Thursday against the Mariners. He followed up that clunker on Opening Day with 7 2/3 of shutout ball, so perhaps he's got another bounceback in him.

Twins righthander Scott Baker is coming off a strong June, during which he produced quality starts in five out of six tries, and went 4-0 with a 3.20 ERA and a 0.966 WHIP. That might be slightly less impressive when you consider those starts came against the Indians, A's ,Cubs, Brewers, Astros and Royals, but you've still got to get the job done. He's at 6-6 with a 4.99 ERA on the year and in his two previous starts against the Yankees (both in 2006), he's 2-0 with a 1.50.

Frankie Cervelli gets the start behind the plate tonight. Sabathia has a 51 to 14 K/BB ratio in 8 games with Cervelli as opposed to 23/19 in 7 games with Posada back there. Brett Gardner gets the start in center with Damon and Swisher on either side.

The Yanks arrive the HHH Metrodome having won 8 of their last 10 against the Twins and hoping they can catapult themselves to another winning streak. They've had their struggles in the building, however, going only 8-11 there since 2004. Barring a meeting in the playoffs this will be the last series the Yanks play there, so John Sterling will no longer have to refer to the outfield wall as "the baggy".

Don't forget that the game starts at 8, like I did until just now.

[Tonight's song comes to you from the Minneapolis-based hip hop group Atmosphere. They've got a pretty extensive song catalog, so if you are a fan of the genre, I would highly recommend checking it out.]

They've arrived, with the excitement of a newborn,
Came to join the main event and fight against the lukewarm.
They've arrived, with nothing but their word and their history,
Take a can of paint and try to decorate the dignity.

Nice Try, Sports Guy

It was only a matter of time until Bill Simmons weighed in on the demise of David Ortiz. We've already had some fun with it, but not nearly as much as our buddy Simon on Sports who did some digging on FanGraphs and found out that they estimate Ortiz's value on the free agent market to be negative $5.2M. 

In his most recent ESPN The Magazine column, Simmons sounds like he's left Papi for dead:

At first, we Sox fans thought we were just watching an early-season slump. Then three weeks passed and we started worrying. The guy couldn't hit the ball out of the infield. His bat was so slow he had to cheat on fastballs; even then, he couldn't catch up. One swing a night made him look like the drunkest batter in a beer league softball game. Look, I've seen slumps. This was different. This was the collapse of a career.

I'm not ready to throw dirt on the guy quite yet. His struggles weren't quite as bad as Ortiz, but at the begining of last year, everyone had completely given up on a 36 year old Carlos Delgado and he ended up raising his OPS by over 200 points in the second half.

Like I did when the Manny HGC story came out, Simmons assumed that there was a good chance Papi's torrid mid-00's were a product of the juice, but he's since changed his tune. 

He just looked old. It reminded me of watching Jim Rice fall apart in the late '80s, when he lost bat speed overnight the way you and I lose a BlackBerry. That was painful too.

By mid-May, I was pondering another theory: Maybe Papi was older than he claimed. In Seth Mnookin's book Feeding the Monster, he recounts the story of how Boston nearly blew the chance to acquire Ortiz because they were concerned that he was much older than the media guide said.

This is an intersting theory, and right off the bat it seems to make a lot of sense. High profile Dominican guys like Vlad Guerero and Miguel Tejada have both been busted for fudging their ages recently, so the when performance seems out of line, it's reasonable to question that. 

Watching Papi flounder now, I'd believe he's really 36 or 37 (not 33) before I'd believe PEDs are responsible.

If he was three years older, it would make it more likely to me that Ortiz used PEDs.

On the surface, Ortiz being older seems to explain away his decline and works to rationalize him at this stage of his career. However, Ortiz's prime already took place in his late 20's and early 30's. If you take Simmons' lower estimate and add three years to his age, he would have hit 10 home runs at the age of 27, when a player is nearing the end of their ostensible physical prime. 

In Papi's defense he made a remarkably steady rise to being a power hitter, increasing his home run totals and slugging percentage every year from 2000 to his apex in 2006. The incredible (and somewhat suspicious) thing about Papi's carrer arc is that the biggest jump in home runs (+11) came when he went from the 12th best home run hitting park in 2002 (HHH Metrodome), to the 25th (Fenway), a layout that does not favor left handed hitters. 

Papi's late peak wounldn't be totally unprecedented. Raul Ibanez's highest home run total was 33 at age 34. However Ibanez didn't fall off a cliff like Papi. Despite hitting in Seattle, one of the very worst home run hitter's parks in the league, Ibanez continued with 21 and 23 HRs over the next two seasons and will almost certainly set another high water mark this year. Jason from IIATM,S can't help but wonder if something in up with him too. 

Every player ages, but not too many become totally useless in the matter of one season like Ortiz has, or goes on a sudden homer binge at age 37 like Ibanez. Unfortunantely for them, a significant portion of those who have these dramatic late career fluctuations are linked to steroid use, so the suspicions are going to swirl.