Divisional Weekend - Sunday Games

Out of the six games that have been contested in this year's playoffs, only one final score has ended up within one touchdown. Here's to hoping today's slate is more entertaining. Onto the games:

Cowboys (+3) at Vikings, Sunday 1PM EST, FOX: Who do you hate more? The Cowgirls or girly man Brett Favre?

Can't both teams lose?

Many people think that this game will be the best matchup of the weekend, evidenced by the fact that tickets are the most expensive of all 4 Divisional games. However, this can also be attributed to the fact that Minneapolis is the largest market of all 4 home teams - imagine that?

Wisconsin native Tony Romo faces his childhood idol Favre. Favre is back in the Playoffs. Adrian Peterson, the Purple Jesus and a childhood diehard Cowboys fan, attempts to reach 100 yards for the first time in 2 months. Peterson had two 2 TDs last year in the Playoffs against the Eagles, but that wasn't enough to counter Tavaris Jackson's ineffectiveness. Will Favre under center change things for the Vikes? Perhaps. Or perhaps he will play like he did at the end of the regular season that resulted in Minnesota gaining a first round bye only because of the fact that Dallas beat the Eagles. The rest will certainly help the antiquated Favre.

The Cowboys Can Win If: On offense, Felix Jones continues his scorching rushing attack and Marion Barber III, the Minnesota native and former Golden Gopher star, can be effective. This would enable Dallas' 3 headed monster of Barber, Choice and Jones to overcome Minnesota's 2nd ranked run defense. Tony Romo also needs to play like he did last week instead of postseasons past. On defense, DeMarcus Ware, Anthony Spencer and Jay Ratliff must put pressure on Favre and force the old man into committing at least 2 turnovers. Also, they have to avoid giving up the big play like they have done against the Saints and Eagles in recent weeks. Kicker Shaun Suisham must not melt in big games like he did for the Redskins.

The Vikings Can Win If: Favre doesn't play like his age or like Dave Shinskie from Boston College. They guard against the run like they have all season. Force Romo into 2 turnovers.

Prediction: Romo has 1 TD to Miles Austin and another to Martellus Bennett to accompany his 250 yards and 1 INT and Barber runs in another one. The Purple Jesus runs for one TD and Favre throws another to Visanthe Shiancoe. Wade Phillips keeps his job.

Cowboys: 24
Vikings: 17

New York Jets (+8) at San Diego Chargers, Sunday 4:40 PM EST, CBS: OK, the Jets, were impressive the past 2 weekends in their dual beatdown of the Bengals the past 2 weeks. And the Jets have the best defensive player in the NFL despite what the idiotic Associated Press says about the matter. And former USC QB Mark Sanchez is returning to SoCal. So it seems like a surefire Jet victory, correct?

But those were the Bungals, who have only one postseason win since 1991, and not the hottest team in the NFL entering the playoffs.

But Darelle Revis cannot cover every inch of the field and all of the Chargers' talented receivers, including Antonio Gates, Vincent Jackson and Malcolm Floyd at the same time. Not to mention LaDanian Tomlinson ("Fake LT") and Darren Sproles coming out of the backfield.

But Mark Sanchez is still a rookie QB and could possibly be worse off as a result of returning home.

How the Jets Can Win: Blitz Phillip Rivers like they have blitzed opposing QBs all year. Focus on the run and limit Mark Sanchez’s pass attempts.

How the Chargers Can Win: Pressure Mark Sanchez and force him to turn the ball over. Take advantage of the short field to counter the Jets’ league’s best overall defense and best pass defense. Rivers must be protected and not throw the ball to Darrelle Revis’s side of the field. Utilize the screen like they have all season to beat the Jets blitzing and

Prediction: For the Jets, Thomas Jones runs for a score and Feely kicks a FG. Helped with a short field as a result of a couple Sanchez INTs, Fake LT and Antonio Gates each score a TD and Nate Kaeding adds 2 FGs to send the Bolts to Indianapolis for the AFC Championship game.

Chargers: 20
Jets: 10

Enjoy the games.

One Reason Not To Hate Brett Favre

When the Twins' ninth inning comeback fell short in the nitecap of yesterday's doubleheader againt Detroit, the Tigers ran their AL Central Lead back to two games. Their magic number is now four. Both the Twins and Tigers have 5 games left, two of them head-to-head. If the Tigers sweep the two they clinch; if the Twins do, they're dead even with three games to go.

Of course, all of this matters to the Yankees as they won't know who their ALDS opponent is until the AL Central is settled. While much of the talk around the Yankees these days is of the "who would you rather face?" variety, my preference isn't so much who they face but rather how long it takes to determine that. If given my druthers, this race would go down to the season's final day, not just for intrigue purposes, but also to force both clubs to continue to play their regulars and trot out their top starters.

Because of the doubleheader yesterday, both clubs have a dilemma for Saturday: bring back one of yesterday's starters on short rest, or send an inferior, but rested, pitcher to the mound with the season hanging in the balance. For the Tigers, the fact that 20 year old Rick Porcello was one of yesterday's pitchers makes the decision all the more complicated. Porcello has already thrown 165 innings this year - 40 more than his previous high - and bringing him in on short rest would increase his risk of future injury. Instead, the Tigers likely would elect to throw ace Justin Verlander on short rest Saturday, even though he's thrown 120+ pitches in each of his last three starts, including a season high 129 last night. For the Twins, "ace" Nick Blackburn would likely come back on short rest Saturday, and it looks like he'd draw Zack Greinke.

If the Yankees pick ALDS schedule "A" as expected, Game 1 would be next Wednesday, meaning that if the Saturday starter of the AL Central champ pitches that game, it would also be on short rest.

Here's where things can get really interesting. Should the Tigers and Twins finish the regular season tied, an additional play in game would be held to determine the division champion. The Twins lead the season series against the Tigers 10-6, so regardless of the outcome of the next two games, the Twins would host any potential play in game.

However, root-of-all-evil Brett Favre and his Minnesota Vikings are scheduled to play his former team, the Green Bay Packers on Monday Night Football next week. The Vikings' Metrodome lease gives them priority over all non-World Series games and the NFL has already announced the game will not be moved. There's no way ESPN, who is actively trying to set a Favre-based Guiness World Record to promote the game, would pass up on the ratings bonanza. As such, the AL Central championship game wouldn't be held until Tuesday, meaning that whoever pitches that game will have one fewer day of rest heading into the ALDS. So in a way, thank you Brett you waffling, self-centered attention whore.

All else being equal, I think I'd prefer to face the Twins in the ALDS. They appear to have a much weaker squad, particularly in the starting rotation, are missing a key offensive weapon in Justin Morneau, are 0-7 against the Yankees this year, and have been ALDS fodder for the Yanks in '03 and '04. However, I'd much rather have the Central go undecided until next Tuesday and play the Tigers than have the Twins come back and clinch it Saturday. These will certainly be an interesting few days.

A Better Stat For Running Backs

Let's say you are an NFL coach, and you have a running back that gains 100 yards on 25 carries and you could choose how to distribute those yards over those carries. You could have him break an 80 touchdown run, but then he would only have gained 20 yards on those other 24 carries, thereby completely bogging your offense down. The best use of those 100 yards would be to distribute them as evenly as possible, in this case being 4 yards for carry. The reason being...

Aaaand I fucking shit you not, right as I'm typing this up (ask Sampson), FOX runs a graphic breaking down Purple Jesus's 18 rushes for 76 yards by each carry.

-1,-1, 2, 2, 6, 2, 40, 6, 0, 6, 1, 3, 0, 2, 0, 3, 0, 5

It saves me a lot of work, but wow that really steals the thunder of this post. Damn you FOX! How dare you listen in to my conversations with my roommate and instantly create a graphic solely to sabotage my shitty blog post that six people are going to read. Fuck.

Anyway, where was I? Ah, yes, even distribution. An even distribution is optimal because if you are picking up four yards every time, you can pick up a first down at will by running three times (theoretically, obviously picking up 4 yards on 3rd & 4 is not the same as on 1st & 10). You can put your team in good down/distance situations, opening up your offensive options. Simply put, given similar total yards and yards per carry, a guy who consistently picks up yards is more valuable than the one who gets you a few big gains but many short runs.

For the sake of argument, I'll say that 4 yards is the cutoff for a "valuable run" (VR). You run for 3 yards 3 times and you still have 4th & 1, so I think you've gotta round up. Look again at PJ's carries again. Out of 18, only 5 of them were VRs. Using the easy method of calculating yards per carry, he's averaging 4.2 YPC. Slightly better than my arbitrary determination of valuable.

What I propose is that in calculating YPC, have 10 yards be the maximum amount per carry. You can make more specific adjustments based on the distance remaining for a first down, but I really don't feel like laying out the specifics at the moment. You could call the stat something nerdy to piss of sportswriters, like VYPR (Valuable Yards Per Rush). Got a better one? Leave it in the comments?

Now, using my new, awesome and completely original formula (probably not) PJ is only averaging 2.5 yards per carry, well below the 4 yard "valuable" threshold. I don't mean to blaspheme Purple Jesus, I'm just trying to say that the 4.2 YPC somewhat overstates his value in that particular game.

[Update - 7:20pm] I type this whole thing up and Westbrook who had 16 touches for 32 yards before this basically wins the game on a 71 yard screen pass. Seem familiar, Giants fans?

[Update - 7:34pm] Wow, after TJack does a great job of reinforcing negative black QB stereotypes by throwing a bunch of shitty passes then breaking a huge run, a fumbled snap essentially ends the game. That was anti-climactic and the fucking Eagles won. I was a much happier person when I started writing this post.

Note: 20th Century FOX assumes responsibility for all cursing in this post.

Mark Schlereth Sizes Up The Giants Potential Opponents

Every so often we are lucky enough to have "Mark Schlereth" write an NFL column for us, jam-packed with meaningless cliches and the word "FOOTBALL".

Today's topic: Who the Giants most want to play out of the 4 NFC teams active this weekend. Take it away "Mark"...

I'll tell you what fellas, there's nothing I look forward to more than the Wild Card Round of the Playoffs in The National FOOTBALL League. This is when teams put all their chips on the table and all of a sudden its DO or DIE. You get players puttin' their hard hats on and goin' to work, because that's what it means to be a professional FOOTBALL player in the National FOOTBALL League. You get guys stepping up in the big moment, putting their team on their back and leaving it all out there on the FOOTBALL field. You figure out who the guys who know how to win are, and who doesn't have what it takes to get the job done.

In my opinion the New York FOOTBALL Giants are the best FOOTBALL team in the National FOOTBALL League right now. They can run the FOOTBALL down your throat or Eli Manning can pick you apart. Here's how I think the other teams match up with the New York FOOTBALL Giants, with the threat they pose to the Giants, on a scale of one to four FOOTBALLS "(l)".

The Falcons: (l)(l)(l)(l)

Here's a great story. You got Matty Ryan, throwin' the pigskin around out there like he's still playing FOOTBALL at Boston College, you got Michael Turner runnin' the FOOTBALL, and you've got a good, solid defense out on the FOOTBALL field. See what happens when a team gets rid of a QB with a low FOOTBALL IQ, and replaces with someone who can make good decisions with the FOOTBALL? These guys are dangerous.

Cardinals: (l)(l)(l)

The Cardinals have got a great veteran leader that knows how to galvanize the clubhouse in Kurt Warner. They've got two of the best wide recievers in the National FOOTBALL League. I'm tellin' ya, these guys can really catch the FOOTBALL and make some plays downfield. The problem I've got with the Cardinals is that they werre 5-1 against the National FOOTBALL Conference West, but only 3-7 versus the rest of the National FOOTBALL League including a loss to the Giants. But with a proven leader like Kurt Warner, you can never count them out of a FOOTBALL game.

The Eagles: (l)(l)

Here's a FOOTBALL team, that when I look at them, I say "If they could get over their issues at QB and get a guy in there like Brett Favre, they could really be a dangerous FOOTBALL team". Donvan McNabb just doesn't have the awareness or ability to read defenses to play quarterback in the National FOOTBALL League.

The Vikings: (l)

When I look at the Vikings, I see a FOOTBALL team that the New York FOOTBALL Giants nearly beat with DAVID CARR leading the troops in the second half of that FOOTBALL game. Like the Eagles, Vikings clearly have a QB problem because the FOOTBALL is being snapped to a guy like Tavaris Jackson. He's not my idea of a lunch-pail, hard hat sort of a guy, and he obviously lacks the awareness and intelligence to lead a FOOTBALL team in the National FOOTBALL League.

So If I'm the New York FOOTBALL Giants, I'm looking at the Minnesota Vikings and saying "Here's a FOOTBALL team that I can punch in the mouth and really move the FOOTBALL on".

Thanks "Mark", I'm sure we'll hear from you again soon.

Eagles v. Vikings Preview

This late game on Sunday has plenty of storylines: Reid v. Childress, Westbrook v. Peterson, McNabb as a future Viking?, Reid’s last game? Are the Eagles this year's Giants?

The Eagles defense ranked 3rd overall in the regular season whereas the Vikings ranked 2nd. Versus the run, the Vikings were 1st while the Eagles were 4th. Therefore, expect this game to be won in the air. This benefits the Eagles, as the Vikings D ranked 18th against the pass compared to 3rd for the Eagles. McNabb is more experienced and despite having a tendency for throwing at the feet of his receivers, is less prone to turning the ball over than Tarvaris Jackson is. Expect 3 or more turnovers from the Vikings as a result of Jim Johnson stacking the box to stop APIII and complex blitzing schemes. The Eagles should have a fumble return for a TD or Pick 6.

Pick:

Eagles: 24
Vikings: 10

Wow, I picked all 4 road teams to win.