NFL Championship Weekend

Okay, I'm back. I guess that means I'm a masochist. Or maybe I want to improve my 3-5 record in predicting postseason games. Regardless, you're stuck with reading my analysis of Championship Weekend.

Hopefully this weekend will be better than the Wild Card and Divisional weekends. If not, this will probably be the worst NFL Playoffs ever. Unlike baseball, the football's playoffs are usually compelling even if your favorite team is out of it. This year, that hasn't been the case. The playoffs are also supposed to make it seem like Spring Training is tomorrow. Well, Spring Training starts in less than a month but that month seems like a fackin' eternity. Next week's Pro Bowl won't shorten it either. Anyway, here is my prediction of who will play in Tampa for Super Bowl XLIV:

New York Jets @ Indianapolis Colts, Sunday, 3PM EST, CBS: Last week at this time I would have been my house that the previous sentence would have read "San Diego Chargers @ Indianapolis Colts." Luckily I didn't and thus don't have to move back in with my parents.

This game features a rematch of Week 16. The week when the Colts stopped their pursuit of perfection and took out Peyton Manning and the rest of their offensive stars with 5:36 remaining in the 3rd Quarter. The week when the Colts let the Jets back into the playoff race.

The pressure is all on Peyton Manning, Jim Caldwell and the Colts. They need to win the Super Bowl to validate their lack of a perfect season. Hell, even winning the Super Bowl is considered a disappointment to some Indy fans. Imagine them losing the Super Bowl, or, God forbid, losing the AFC Championship? The Colts are already looking forward to the Super Bowl. According to star DE and Syracuse product Dwight Freeney, "Week 16 was in Week 16. This is the AFC Championship Game. If they want to use whatever happened in Week 16 to motivate them, so be it. For us, it's the AFC Championship Game now. One more game until the Super Bowl, and they are in our way, so we have to try to get something done."

Given that the Jets have reached this far with a rookie QB in Mark Sanchez, they are playing with house money. You know what they say about house money - there's nothing like it. Rex Ryan has remained as confident as ever this week. Ryan has stated that he would be "shocked" if Gang Green was not in the Super Bowl and that the Jets would have won the Week 16 matchup even if the Colts had not pulled out early.

How great would it be if the Jets bounced the Colts? Great for irony's sake and great for the Tri-State Region. Two ticker tape parades in a year would be awesome and help reestablish New York as the premier sports location in the United States. Will it happen? Not according to Vegas. Although I am not a Jets fan, I will be rooting for them.

How The Jets Can Win: Keep the pressure on Manning to foil the NFL's second-ranked passing attack and force them to rely on their 32nd ranked run offense. Limit Sanchez's pass attempts.

How the Colts Can Win: Stack the box against the Jets' #1 ranked run offense and force Sanchez to throw more than 20 times. Get the ball to Dallas Clark, Pierre Garcon and Austin Collie with regularity in order to avoid the Revis machine covering Reggie Wayne.

Prediction: The game is a defensive struggle. Manning throws for two scores while Thomas Jones runs two in for the J-E-T-S. The difference is a late 4th Quarter field goal by Matt Stover. The dual ticker tape parade will wait until next year with celebrations for the Yankees and Giants.

Colts: 20
Jets: 17

Minnesota Vikings at New Orleans Saints, Sunday, 6:30 EST, Fox.

#1 vs. #2. Brees vs. Favre.

Will this game be a shootout? Last weekend, the Vikings scored 35 points in their win over Dallas. The Saints bested this effort by scoring 45 points. However, both teams also played stout defense, with the Vikings giving up 6 points and the Saints giving up 14.

Favre looks to join Kurt Warner as a QB to lead two different teams to Super Bowls. Brees looks to reach his first.

Injury News: Minnesota Defensive tackle Kevin Williams and defensive end Ray Edwards missed their second straight practice on Thursday because of knee trouble. Percy Harvin, the Vikings' young talented receiver, also missed practice with a migraine. Kevin Williams will be needed to stop Reggie Bush, who was pivotal in the Saints' win over the Cardinals in the Divisional round. Harvin adds a dimension to the Vikings that most teams have difficulty with. New Orleans ranked 25th in the NFL in overall defense during the regular season.

How the Vikings Can Win: Favre continues not to commit turnovers. Reggie Bush is stopped at the line of scrimmage and avoid giving up the long pass from Brees.

How the Saints Can Win: They are able to pound the ball on the ground like they did last week against the Cardinals. Get the ball to Devery Henderson and Jeremy Shockey. Blitz and force Favre turnovers. Shut down Adrian Peterson like he has been the past 2 months.

Prediction: Favre throws one TD to Sidney Rice and another to Visanthe Shiancoe. Kicker Ryan Lomgwell adds another 3 for the Vikes. However, backed by the raucous Cajuns in the first ever NFC Championship at the Superdome, the Saints advance to their first ever Super Bowl by virtue of 2 TDs from Brees and another from Pierre Thomas and a FG from Garrett Hartley. Favre throws 2 INTs.

Saints: 24
Vikings: 17

Divisional Weekend - Saturday Games

Okay Fackers. Last week I went 2-2, correctly predicting both AFC Wildcard Weekend matchups but brutally butchering the NFC tilt. 2-2 isn't so bad I guess. I mean Adam Schefter went 1-3. Mike Greenberg went 0-4 as did Bill Simmons. Eric Allen was the only "expert" on ESPN did better than me. Some of you told me that I should "stick to baseball." Well should Adam Schefter find another job? Should Greenie resign? (Trick question, Mike is absolutely awful and should resign for a lack of sports knowledge that is not remotely compensated for by humor).

Despite the Giants not being involved and the fact that 75% of the games were certifiable blowouts, I think that a good number of you Fackers were pleased with the results--namely the Jets winning and the Patriots gettin' knawked the fack out by the Ravens. Let's hope that the Cowboys lose this weekend.

Well, I'm back offering more NFL Playoffs content. Maybe I'm a glutton for punishment. Or maybe I have fun writing these posts.

In my opinion, Divisional Weekend is the best weekend of the sporting year. Two entire days of football, wherein the Super Bowl pretenders are knocked out and the heavyweights - the #1 and #2 seeds - make their postseason debuts. We get to speculate about whether the top seeds should have rested their starters in the final weeks of the regular season and sought health at the expense of momentum. I certainly can't wait until 4:30 on Saturday.

The elements do not figure to be be a factor this week as 3 of the games will be in domed stadiums and the other will be in San Diego. Certainly not what I think of when I think of playoff football. Regardless, it would be difficult for the games not to be better than last weekend's slate. Unlike last weekend, we are going to split the posts up. Here are Saturday's games:

Arizona Cardinals (+7) at New Orleans Saints, Saturday 4:30 PM EST. The Cardinals are coming off a thrilling 51-45 overtime victory in which a defensive touchdown ironically ended the highest scoring NFL postseason game ever. Go figure. Some, including the aforementioned Mike Greenberg say that the Cardinals will be exhausted and mentally drained from the victory and the "long" flight from Arizona to Nawlins. I say bullshit. If the Saints lose, they'll say they were rusty coming off their first round bye. Rest, or lack thereof, is thoroughly overrated.

Meanwhile, the Saints, who were 13-0, before losing their final three contests, look to get back on the winning track so that they can win their first ever Super Bowl title. Incidentally, no team has ever lost its final 3 games and won the Super Bowl. If Brees, who was screwed in the MVP voting, plays like he did during the Saints' first 14 games, we could see a shootout of epic proportions at the Superdome akin to what we saw in Glendale last weekend. Brees finished the regular season with 4,388 yards (6th in the NFL) and led the Saints to a league-leading average of 31.9 points per game. (Interestingly, Cardinals QB Antrel Rolle was quoted as saying he'd rather face Saints QB Drew Brees any day of the week than face Packers QB Aaron Rodgers again.)

Cardinals WR Anquan Boldin, who missed the Wild Card matchup, did not practice Wednesday and is questionable.

How The Cardinals Can Win: Exploit the Saints' 26th-ranked pass defense. Also, they will need to replicate their running game that they had against the Packers (Nawlins was particularly vulnerable to the run in their final 3 games). Follow the Cowboys' gameplan and blitz the shit out of Brees and limit him to underneath passes. DO NOT GET BEAT BY THE BIG PLAY!

How The Saints Can Win: Big plays from Brees. Blitz the shit out of Warner and force picks.

My Prediction: I think this game will be a proverbial barnburner that comes down to the last possession. Offense rules. Kurt Warner, the surefire future Canton inductee, drives the Cardinals down the field for a Neil Rackers field goal with 20 seconds left.

Cardinals: 38
Saints: 35

Ravens (+7) at Colts, Saturday 8:15 PM EST: This is a game of contradictions. Current Baltimore team versus former Baltimore team. Top seed versus the lowest seed. The Ravens, in my opinion are undoubtedly the hottest team in the NFL. The Colts, au contraire, are the most rested team as a result of not having played their starters in 3.5 weeks.

The Colts are led by three-time MVP QB Peyton Manning (Peyton won the award this season to join Brett Favre as the only three-time winner of the sport's most prestigious award). Under center for the Ravens is Joe Flacco - he who owned a stat line of 4/10, 34 yards (tied with Miami's Bob Griese for the fewest in a playoff win in the Super Bowl era) over the fackin' Pats.

The Ravens had the 5th rated run defense; the Colts had the 24th rated run defense. The Ravens, led by the diminutive yet ravishing Ray Rice, finished 5th in the NFL in rushing; the Colts finished 32 of 32 in the same stat. As a matter of fact, the only similarity of the two teams is the relative inexperience of their head coaches - John Harbaugh is in his second year at the helm of the Ravens (and has two postseason appearences); Colts boss man Jim Caldwell, who has been critiqued by more Americans than President Obama over the last month, is a rookie.

So Who Will Win?

The Colts Can Win If: They are able to stop Ray Rice. As simple as that.

The Ravens Can Win If: Ray Rice runs wild. And Manning throws 3 INTs.

Prediction: Earlier in the week I was telling everyone who would listen that the Ravens would advance to the AFC Championship game. I was only one of the few who picked the Ravens over the Pats and I have a special affinity for Ray Rice because I picked him in the late rounds of my fantasy draft and he ended up one of the top Fantasy RBs. However, after looking at the matchups, I am not so sure anymore. Mainly, I am not too confident in Joe Flacco after the numbers he put up in Foxborough. Manning throws for 300 with 2 TDs with Addai running in another. Rice plays well with 140 combined yards and a TD, but not well enough to compensate for Flacco's turnovers.

Colts: 24
Ravens: 17

Come back on Sunday for the other two breakdowns. Enjoy the games!

Sláinte,
Joe

Wild Card Weekend

Last year before Fack Youk went approximately 99% Bronx-centric, a relatively large amount of our coverage was geared towards the NFL Playoffs. This post, linked to by Deadspin and shamelessly sampled without attribution by Kissing Suzy Kolber (#22), was our first big hit.

Well, the 2010 NFL Playoffs are here. Despite the fact that second favorite team of the blog, the Giants, aren't in the Tournament of Twelve, there are certainly some Jets and Pats fans out there at the very least. Even if you don't follow any of the teams partaking in the postseason, the NFL Playoffs are undoubtedly the greatest four weekends in sports. They also mark the last significant sporting events until Pitchers and Catchers report to George M. Steinbrenner Field in Tampa, Florida on February 17, 2010.

Here is my take on the 2010 Wild Card Weekend featuring three Week 17 "rematches" (the 10th, 11th and 12th times this has happened since 1990 - previously, one team won both games four times and the teams split five times). Let's see if watching 10 games a weekend for 17 weeks via NFL Sunday Ticket actually did anything for me:

New York Jets (+3), at Cincinnati Bengals, Saturday 4:30 EST, NBC.

Some say that the Jets "backed in" by virtue of Jim Caldwell and Bill Polian being smart and realizing that Super Bowl championships and not perfect (or 18-1) seasons are what you play for. Well, sometimes it's better to be lucky than good. This first game of Wild Card Weekend is also the first Week 17 rematch - when the 9-7 Jets trounced the Bengals 37-0. Interestingly enough, the 2001 Jets beat the Raiders in Week 17 but lost to the Raiders in the Wild Card game (the Raiders subsequently lost to the Patriots in the infamous Tuck Rule game).

Back to Week 17, the Jets were playing for their proverbial playoff lives and the Bengals weren't playing for anything, sat Cedric Benson and called 11 total pass plays for Carson Palmer. The pumped-up Jets relied upon their NFL-leading rushing attack which overpowered the 7th ranked Cincy run defense.

How the Jets Can Win: Keep it on the ground and limit the throws of rookie Mark Sanchez, Palmer's fellow USC alum. Rookie QBs + Playoffs = Golf. Darrelle Revis also needs to shut down Ochocinco like he did in Week 17.

How the Bengals Can Win: On offense, the Bengals need to be able to sneak a few big plays past the NFL leading Jets pass defense. On defense, they will have to play like the defense that ranked 7th in the NFL against the run.

Injury Notes: Chad Ochocinco injured his knee in pregame warmups but it appears that he will play. Bengals DT Pat Sims suffered a broken forearm on Sunday and was placed on IR, but fellow DT Domata Peko is expected to be back from knee surgery, bolstering the Bengals Run D that gave up 257 Yards to the Jets.

Random: I expect many Jets fans to call the Bengals Jerk Line at 513-381-JERK (5375).

My Prediction: Given that the Jets ranked 8th against the run and 1st against the pass, and that the Bengals finished 7th and 6th in those respective categories, I expect this be one hell of a low-scoring affair. I say that the Jets prevail with a Thomas Jones score and a couple of FGs from Jay Feely.

Jets: 13
Bengals: 10

Philadelphia Eagles (+4) at Dallas Cowboys, Saturday 8:00 EST, NBC:

This is also a rematch of the Week 17 game in Dallas in which Tony Romo and the Cowboys completed the exorcism of their December demons and shut out the Iggles and their chance for a First Round Bye 24-0. The Eagles had to fly out to Philly after the game and fly in to Dallas again this week despite not staying in nearby Mexico on the dime of a certain quarterback on their roster with the name of Ron Mexico.

In the regular season, the Cowboys defeated the Eagles twice on their way to the NFC East title. Can they beat them a third time? You know what they say about beating a team thrice - it is nearly impossible. Or is it? Twelve of the 19 times the team who swept the regular season, won the 3rd game.

As for Dallas, the last team they had a chance to beat a team three times in the same season was in 1998. They ultimately lost to the Arizona Cardinals in the Wild Card Round after besting them twice in the regular season. And of course, in 2007-2008, they beat a Giants team twice in the regular season before losing in the NFC Divisional Round and were but a speed bump on Big Blue's way to Super Bowl glory.

Cowboys Can Win If: Tony Romo can exorcise his playoff demons and the 19th-ranked pass defense can avoid the big play from Donovan McNabb to DeSean Jackson, like they did on Sunday. They will also need to avoid costly Flozell Adams penalties and kicker Shaun Suisham will need to avoid imploding.

Philadelphia Can Win If: DeSean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin can make the simple catches that they missed last week and the secondary makes the tackles that they missed. A healthy dosage of blitzing from every angle like the Jim Johnson defense of yesteryear will also be needed to disrupt and frustrate Romo. Without the heavy blitzing, Romo will beat you, as evidenced on Sunday.

My Prediction: This game will be closer to the 20-16 Week 9 affair than Week 17's game. I liked Philly's game plan on Sunday but they just couldn't execute. There is no way that this poor execution will be replicated. They are too good of a team. Romo will have 2 TDs but also throw 3 INTs. McNabb will throw for one, Westbrook run for one, and Jackson will run back the other. The difference will be a seemingly innocuous first half field goal.

Philly: 24
Dallas: 21

Baltimore Ravens (+3.5) at New England Patriots, Sunday, 1PM EST, CBS:

The Patriots were my preseason pick to win the Super Bowl. And they were my pick to win the Super Bowl at 12:59 EST on Sunday of Week 17. But then the hahhts of Bawston were-ah broken when Wes Welkah had his knee blown out and my picks were facked. In regular American English, the genius Bill Belichick decided to play Wes Welker, in a meaningless game against the Texans and Welker, Brady's favorite receiver and the yang to Randy Moss's yin, subsequently tore his ACL and MCL on the Pats' first drive of the game. I guess I could put it in a simpler and more vulgar manner--the Patriots are fucked and the downward spiral of Boston athletics continues.

If the Pats don't lose against Baltimore, they surely will lose in the Divisional Round. Julian Edelman is no Welker. Teams will double Moss on every play. The Patriots did have the 12th ranked run offense in the league, but that was with Welker. And Baltimore's Run D, at #5 in the NFL ain't too shabby.

Patriots Can Win If: Edelman turns into Welker and Randy Moss has 3 TDs. Or Moss has 2 TDs and the Pats score multiple Defensive TDs. Big Ben Watson must also pick up some of Welker's possession catches.

Ravens Can Win If: 2nd Year QB Joe "Skinny" Flacco limits his INTs while playing at the hostile Razor and Ray Rice runs rabidly. Also, WRs Mason and Clayton will have to come up with a key catch sooner or later - surely not the most dependable WR duo in football. On defense, double team Moss most plays. When he isn't doubled, triple team him. Hit him early and hard and he will probably give up.

My Prediction: In front of the cold, hostile Bawstonians, Flacco, Rice and Ray Lewis tell the Patriots "Nevermore." Brady plays like Brady with 2 TDs, but ultimately the absence of Welker is too much for them to overcome as the Ravens D shuts down any modicum of a Patriots rush attack.

Ravens: 20
Patriots: 17

Green Bay Packers (+1.5) at Arizona Cardinals, Sunday, 4:40PM EST, FOX:

Another Week 17 rematch--last week the 5th-seeded Packers crushed the 4th seeded Cardinals 33-7 with Matt Leinart and my fellow BC alum Brian St. Pierre (who may have the best job in the world) at the helm in Glendale. Cardinals coach Ken Whisenhunt decided to go with a plain gameplan so as not to tip the hand of this week's gameplan.

Last year, as a Falcons fan, I salivated at playing the Cardinals on Wild Card weekend. Well, the Cardinals won the game. Next up, the Carolina Panthers were booking their flights for the NFC Championship. The Cardinals couldn't possibly win a fucking playoff game on the road, could they? Of course they could. Shame on everyone for thinking elsewise. And from there they continued to defy football fans across the globe by adding to Andy McNabb's NFC Championship Game losses and coming within a miraculous Roethlisberger to Santanio Holmes touchdown from becoming Super Bowl XLIII champions.

Will this year's Cardinals team also begin a Super Bowl run by beating a 5th seeded team, who many believe are better, and with a talented young QB making his first ever playoffs start (Aaron Rodgers)? While it may seem like fate dictates such, the Cardinals injury list may defeat such.

Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, the standout Cardinals CB, bruised his left knee in Week 17 and is questionable. The Cardinals leader in INTs will be needed to shut down the prolific Packers passing attack; so too will defensive end Calais Campbell who broke his thumb and is expected to play with a cast. WR Anquan Boldin, who surpassed 1,000 receiving yards for the fifth time in his career during the game, was injured in the 3rd Quarter after Cardinals coach Ken Whisenhunt inexplicably left him in, sprained his left ankle. Boldin, a true gamer, expects to be ready to go. The Cardinals need all of their receiving corps to spread thin the Packers pass defense that ranked 5th in the NFL (their rush D led the league).

Cardinals Can Win If: Boldin plays, thereby enabling Larry Fitzgerald to does his best impression of the 2009 Playoffs. The absence of Boldin will also make it that much easier for the Packers to stop the Cardinals' anemic 28th-ranked ground game. Rodgers-Cromartie will also need to play as the Cardinals will need multiple turnovers.

Packers Can Win If: Aaron Rodgers doesn't have 3+ turnovers.

My Prediction: Rodgers doesn't have 3+ turnovers and the Packers 2nd ranked overall defense shuts down the Cardinals offense.

Packers: 24
Cardinals: 10

Enjoy the games with family and friends and good luck with all of your betting! If I have any credibility left, look out for my Divisional Round previews.

T.O. Release or Not T.O. Release: That is The Question

The Dallas Cowboys are apparently undergoing chemo to rid themselves of the locker room cancers that have turned perhaps the most talented NFL team into mere ESPN Coverage Champions and employment guarantors of Ed Werder.

Already in this young offseason they have severed ties with Adam “Don’t Call Me Pacman” Jones (although according to him they are merely giving him rain check). According to ESPN, the Cowboys are also considering letting free agent DT Tank Johnson go unsigned. This is understandable, given the fact that Tank has not accomplished much with the ‘Boys. But the rumors do not stop there. Also according to ESPN, the Cowboys are considering severing ties with arguably the best wide receiver in the NFL, Terrell Owens.

T.O., who has been unjustly vilified by the public ever since he asserted his right to be one of the highest paid receivers in the league. When he led the Philadelphia Eagles to their only Super Bowl appearance, he was the only Eagles player to perform well, despite having an injured ankle for which he was required to sign a waiver that stated he would not be owed any future money by the organization in the event that the ankle was injured.

T.O.’s on the field performance has been nothing short of special. In his 3 seasons as a Cowboy he has gained at least 1,000 a year (for an average of about 15 yards per catch) scored at least 10 TDs a year, and been a dual threat over the middle and down the sidelines. Wherever he goes on the field he has drawn double teams and opened up Jason Witten and Patrick Crayton. He also isn’t afraid to throw a downfield block for his RBs or another receiver. Drops aside, I think that you will be hard-pressed to find a more complete receiver in the NFL.

T.O. has shown great loyalty to the organization. He has said that he "definitely" wants to finish his career in Dallas and enter the Hall of Fame as a Cowboy. Unlike his time in San Francisco or Philadelphia, Owens respects his quarterback, even going so far as to pathetically cry for him after defeat to the eventual World Champion New York Football Giants. [Ed. Note: Yesss]

So why release him?

I honestly have no clue why. As Jim Mora would say “Don’t Ask Me!”

Is it because he demands the ball on every play? Show me any top receiver who doesn’t. After looking at his numbers (specifically YPC and TDs), he definitely should get the ball every play.

Is it because of Jason Garrett? Word is that the Cowboys are afraid of losing the so-called offensive genius from Princeton. Garrett, who has a rocky relationship with Owens, has been inconsistent and his play-calling horrendous. Look what he has done with all the talent surrounding him--produced the 13th overall ranked offense in the NFL. Clearly he is dispensable.

Is it because of a rift with TE Jason Witten? I’m a huge Witten fan, but to put Witten before T.O. is putting the proverbial cart before the horse. Without Owens’ double coverage, Jason Witten would be nobody significant. Look at the numbers that back-up TE Martellus Bennett has put up in Witten’s absences.

Is it because of media distractions? You are seriously going to let the media run your team? Why not banish ESPN and Ed Werder from Valley Ranch? Shouldn’t you draft/sign thick-skinned players who will not be “distracted” by being asked questions about a single player who the media has a hard on for and who will be able to live with being a member of so-called “America’s Team?” Maybe you should investigate your signings more.

The man shows up to play his hardest every day. While he is a diva, like most WRs, he is not a felon.

Do not pin the Dallas Cowboys failure on T.O. Following his biggest distraction (PlayGate involving his alleged allegation of Tony Romo and Witten leaving him out of plays), the Cowboys defeated the Giants. It is not his fault that the Cowboys defense let up back-to-back 70+ yard runs against the Baltimore Ravens in Week 17, or Romo fumbled away the game versus the Philadelphia Eagles. It is not his fault that the Offensive Line (led by a partially deaf left tackle in Flozell Adams) could not stop the Giants defensive attack of Michael Strahan, Justin Tuck and Osi Umenyiora in the 2008 Divisional Round or that Romo fumbled a snap against the Seattle Seahawks the year before.

It is not his fault that Wade Phillips is a puppet and offers no leadership, nor his fault that no other player has asserted leadership of the team.

So go ahead, Dallas. Release him. See what happens when all who an erratic, choking QB has to throw to are a possession receiver in Roy Williams and a double-covered Witten. I’ll give you a hint: it will not be winning your first playoff game since 1996.

Arizona Cardinals at Carolina Panthers: Preview

The Panthers are 8-0 in Carolina this year. The temperature at the 8:15PM kickoff will be 39 Degrees. There will also be a 60% chance of precipitation.

This weather favors a ground game and other than the Giants there is no more lethal ground game in the NFL than the Carolina Panthers with their 1-2 combo of DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart. Arizona ranked 16th in run defense during the season and shut down Michael Turner last week. Can they do it again? I don’t think so. Arizona ranked 32nd in the NFL in rushing offense. It is also expected to be without stud WR Anquan Boldin.

Delhomme is a seasoned veteran and him and Steve Smith/Mushin Muhammad should hook up for a few scores against an Arizona D that gave up 36 passing TDs in the regular season.

Pick:

Carolina: 35
Arizona: 10

Baltimore at Tennessee: Preview

Due to stellar defenses on both sides (Baltimore ranked 2nd overall—including 3rd against the run; Tennessee ranked 7th overall—6th against the run), I think this game will undoubtedly be the most boring one of the weekend.

Baltimore shut down the Wildcat and should have no problem shutting down Chris Johnson and Lendale White. Kerry the Drunken Fairy isn’t exactly a world beater. As long as Joe Flacco doesn’t turn the ball over the Ravens should have no problem.

How many interceptions will Ed Reed have?

Pick:
Baltimore: 13
Tennessee: 6

Eagles v. Vikings Preview

This late game on Sunday has plenty of storylines: Reid v. Childress, Westbrook v. Peterson, McNabb as a future Viking?, Reid’s last game? Are the Eagles this year's Giants?

The Eagles defense ranked 3rd overall in the regular season whereas the Vikings ranked 2nd. Versus the run, the Vikings were 1st while the Eagles were 4th. Therefore, expect this game to be won in the air. This benefits the Eagles, as the Vikings D ranked 18th against the pass compared to 3rd for the Eagles. McNabb is more experienced and despite having a tendency for throwing at the feet of his receivers, is less prone to turning the ball over than Tarvaris Jackson is. Expect 3 or more turnovers from the Vikings as a result of Jim Johnson stacking the box to stop APIII and complex blitzing schemes. The Eagles should have a fumble return for a TD or Pick 6.

Pick:

Eagles: 24
Vikings: 10

Wow, I picked all 4 road teams to win.

Ravens v. Dolphins Preview

Baltimore’s Joe “Skinny” Flacco and John Harbaugh join Matt Ryan and Mike Smith as the second rookie quarterback/rookie head coach combination in the Playoffs this year.
Tony Sparano, prohibitive favorite for NFL Coach of the Year, and Chad Pennington, the NFL’s Comeback Player of the Year, lead last year’s 1-15 Dolphins team while their respective former teams, the Dallas Cowboys and New York Jets, who bailed on them are sitting home and whining about what went wrong.

This should be a low-scoring game thanks in part to Baltimore’s 2nd ranked defense. Miami needs to be opportunistic to win and score on a couple of Wildcat plays or a Ted Ginn Jr. kickoff return. I think Baltimore grinds it out and wins the most boring game of the Playoffs. Hey, at least the Pats aren’t playing.

Pick:

Ravens: 17
Dolphins: 14

Colts v. Chargers Preview

At the midpoint of the season one would think that it would be nearly impossible for one of these teams, let alone both, to get into the playoffs. Following off-season knee surgery, Peyton Manning was stinking up the joint early. The Colts broke out of the gate losing their first two games. After reaching 3-4, they won 9 straight to finish at 12-4, breaking their own record by winning 12 or more games 6 years in a row. Despite not putting up his normal numbers, 2008 MVP Manning provided invaluable leadership while key cogs such as RB Joseph Addai and SS Bob Sanders were hurt. Manning enters Saturday night’s game with a 70+% completion percentage in each of his last 4 games and without throwing an interception in December. The Colts finally appear to be healthy.

After referee Ed Hochuli screwed them on a call against the Broncos in Week 2, the Chargers appeared listless. Up and down all season, they lost 3 straight games in November to leave them at 4-8. Thanks in part due to the fire was lit in Phillip River’s ass after finding out that NFL Girly Man #1 Brett Favre beat him out for a Pro Bowl spot and the healing of LaDainian Tomlinson’s toe, the Chargers won 4 straight in December. They currently rival the Colts as the NFL’s hottest team. However, LDT now has a strained hamstring. Despite probably being available for Saturday night’s game, this is not exactly what the Chargers need. Expect Fake LT to be limited and for Darren Sproles to receive plenty of action.

The Colts and the Chargers are very familiar with each other; Saturday night’s affair represents the sixth time that they have met since 2004, with the Bolts winning four of those contests. In last year’s Divisional Round match up at the RCA Dome, the Chargers defeated the Colts before losing to the Patriots, who finished the season at 18-1. Earlier this season at Qualcomm Stadium, the Colts defeated the Chargers 23-20.

I expect this game to be won in the air by the Colts. San Diego’s passing defense is second-worst in the NFL. Give me 3 TDs by Manning—one each to Reggie Wayne, Dallas Clark and Anthony Gonzalez—and one to Joseph Addai. Despite big games by Fake LT and Sproles, River’s brilliant stretch comes to end against the Colts, who have let up only six passing touchdowns all season.

Pick:

Colts: 28
Chargers: 24

Falcons v. Cardinals Preview

Very comprehensive article about Matty Ice by Yahoo Sports' Charles Robinson on the young career of the future perennial All-Pro.

Expect the AP Offensive Rookie of the year to have about 3 TDs and 250 yards in his playoff debut versus the Arizona Cardinals (who have given up 36 Passing TDs this year). However, the key to the game will be the Falcons ground attack. When Ryan has fewer than 30 passing attempts, the Falcons are 11-0. Another factor will be stopping the talented receiving duo of Anquan Boldin and Larry Fitzgerald, which can be accomplished by John Abraham getting pressure on Warner early and often.

Lucky draw for the Falcons considering that Arizona is last in the league in rushing and Atlanta's weakness is its Run D.

Pick:

Atlanta: 31
Arizona: 24