Half Empty Or Half Full?

Good morning, Fackers. Do you want the good news or the bad news first? This is always a tough conundrum. Do you want to hear the good stuff, only to have it tainted by the expectation of the bad? Or do you want to get the bad out of the way first and hang your hopes on the good news being able to save the day? Since neither of these items are of great import, let's start out will the positive.

Over at FanGraphs, R.J. Anderson took a look at what Phil Hughes was able to do out of the bullpen in 2009. To some extent, I think Hughes' contributions to the team were overlooked last season. Since he began the year as a starter with marginal success, his overall numbers were solid but not eye-popping (3.03 ERA, 86 IP, 1.116 WHIP, 3.43 K/BB).

However, if you look solely at his performance as a reliever, it was highly impressive. He struck out over 12 batters per 9 innings, had an ERA of 1.40 and a FIP of 1.83 in 51.1 IP. The FIP was particularly impressive considering that only 32 relievers have had a sub-2.00 FIP (minimum 40 IP) since 1990. Perhaps most surprisingly, not one of those belongs to Mariano Rivera. As Anderson acknowledges, FIP probably underrates Rivera because it can't measure his ability to induce weak contact, but Hughes' '09 campaign was impressive nonetheless.

Perhaps Hughes' ultimate destination will be the starting rotation, but there is reason to hope that he can be a real weapon out of the 'pen if that's where he ends up.

And now for the negative. As many analysts have felt the need to point out during this offseason, Dayn Perry at FOX Sports would like to remind everyone that just because Yankees won 103 games and the World Series last season, doesn't mean that they are a lock to do it again. Not exactly a bold statement, but let's take a look at Perry's points.

1. The lower baseline
2. Age

3. A brutal division

4. The vagaries of the postseason

The only one of those that needs explaining is the first. Perry cites the fact that the Yanks' Pythagorean record predicted that they would win only 95 games last year instead of 103. Of course, that still would have comfortably earned them a playoff berth. Which leads us to his final point.

If the 2001-2009 era taught you nothing else as a Yankee fan, you should be keenly aware that it's really, really hard to win a championship. The postseason isn't a total crapshoot, but the best team clearly doesn't always win. It's not to say that the Yanks were the the most worthy squad in all of those seasons, but there were probably three, four or five times that they entered October as the odds-on favorite, only to get bounced before claiming #27. Thanks to our generous sponsors at Bodog, we know that you can take the Yankees at 11/4 to win the World Series right now. But, that of course factors in things that not relevant on the field of play like betting volume. The real world odds are probably significantly higher.

If this was pre-2004, you might have had to remind some Yankees fans that it's far from a given that the team will repeat in 2010. Before 2008, you might have had to remind them that a postseason appearance is not a birthright. But I think anyone who is reading this blog knows better than to make those kind of assumptions in March.

Are You Ready For Some Baseball?

Good morning Fackers. It's finally Friday. This is of course a good thing due to it being the end of yet another work week. But more importantly the seemingly interminable wait for another game of Yankee baseball is over - Mother Nature willing. Five whole days. And we thought the All-Star Break was long this year.

Speaking of the All-Star Break, just prior to it the Yankees had a disastrous three game series in Anaheim during which they were swept and outscored by a total of eleven runs. The end of that series marked the start of the longest hiatus the Yankees had this year - until now. The new longest break will end with a series against those same Angels, except the stakes are much higher this time.

The Yankees' 2009 regular season featured several key moments: the return of Alex Rodriguez in Baltimore; the three consecutive walk-offs against the Twins, the surprise visit from Brian Cashman in Atlanta, a momentum swinging ejection of Joe Girardi, Francisco Cervelli's first Major League home run and the early August sweep in the Bronx that finally turned the tables on the Red Sox. While all of those were positive events, it was perhaps getting swept in southern California that was the most critical turning point of the Yankee season. They exited that series at 51-37, 3 games back in the AL East. They went 52-22 the rest of the way, finishing with the best record in baseball.

Those last 74 games included four against the Angels. The Yankees went 3-1 in those games to even the season series at five apiece, but thanks to that three game set in July, they finished with a minus ten run differential against the Halos. From a Pythagorean perspective, the Yankees picked up about three quarters of win beyond what they should have, thanks in large part to three of their victories coming by a single run.

Over the course of this series, much will be made of the Yankees struggles against the Angels during Mike Scioscia's tenure, particularly in the 2002 and 2005 Division Series. While there's no denying that, it doesn't much matter. These Yankees and Angels are far removed even from last year's versions. This year they split, and while the Yanks may owe probability three fourths of a win heading into this series, they were able to carry an even larger IOU against the Twins over to 2010.

The Yankees last played a game Sunday, in the final baseball game ever played at the Metrodome. Incidentally, we thought the Yankees played their last game there way back in July. Oddly enough, the three game sweep at the hands of the Angels immediately followed. After the Angels took those three, the Yankees took three of the next four. Seven games. Four Angels wins, three Yankees wins. Let's hope those numbers reverse themselves over the next seven games. This series ought to be a good one.

Run Differentials, Luck, And Correcting Statistical Improbabilities

Yesterday, Jay detailed some of the reasons why he wasn't too keen on the possibility of facing the Red Sox in the ALCS. I had reasons of my own for not wanting that match up. Aside from the way that the local and national media would beat the story into the ground, and the usual onslaught of rarely entertaining and often unintelligent anonymous comments we'd see here, I had a more rational concern about facing Boston.

Back in June, as the Yankees entered their third series of the season against the Sox at 0-5, we wrote a series of previews about how the Yankees were due for a win. The Yankees came up empty in that set as well, falling to 0-8 against Boston in 2009. While some of the aforementioned anonymous commenters took that as an opportunity to have some fun at our expense, I still took some solace in the fact that if the Yankees and Red Sox were truly evenly matched teams - as I thought they were - then the odds were in favor of them having a nice turnaround over the remainder of the season series.

Sure enough, over the next two months the Yankees finally put to rest the issues that intermittently beset them during the early portions of the season. When they met the Sox again in early August, we knew the Yanks were still due, and it started a 8-1 head-to-head run to finish the season series at 9-9, with 101 runs scored and 99 runs allowed. In short, the two teams were about as dead even as possible, meaning were they to meet again, probability would favor neither. It would be starting from square one, only this time it would be decided over a relatively short best of seven series rather than eighteen games. There wouldn't be enough opportunity this time for short term statistical improbabilities to correct themselves over the long term.

Yet probability doesn't always win out. In stark contrast to the universe evening out in the season series between the Yankees and Red Sox, is the absurdly good fortune that smiled upon the Yankees in their ten meetings with the Twins this year.

The Yankees and Twins began their season series in mid-May with a four game wraparound series. The Yankees had already amassed two of their fifteen regular season walkoff wins, but it was during this series that the walkoff win started to become a hallmark of the 2009 season. In the series opener, Brett Gardner delivered an inside-the-park home run, and Melky delivered his second walkoff hit of the season, giving the Yanks a one run win. On Saturday, in just his eighth game of the season and his second at the new Yankee Stadium, Alex Rodriguez delivered his second big home run of the season. This time it was an extra inning walkoff, giving the Yankees a two run victory and making A-Rod the first Yankee to get pied on the season. On Sunday, Johnny Damon delivered an extra inning walkoff HR of his own, the third straight Yankee walkoff in the series, for another one run victory. On Monday, I made my debut at Fack Youk in the morning, shot down to the Stadium for the game, and watched the Yankees squeak out another one run win, this time without the drama of a walkoff. Despite a run differential of just five, the Yankees had a four game sweep for themselves.

The two teams met again in the Metrodome following Fourth of July Weekend. The first game would be the most lopsided affair in the season series. Behind CC Sabathia, the Yankees won by eight runs, representing 50% of the final run differential for the season series. The second game was another one run victory, and then Yankees swept the season series with a two run victory in the season finale.

All told, the Yankees went 7-0 against the Twins, with 41 runs scored and 25 runs allowed. Using the more accurate 1.83 exponent, those numbers predict a pythagorean record of 5-2. Instead they went 7-0. The Yankees swept seven from the Twins in 2003 as well, but outscored them 49 to 13 that year, predicting a pythagorean record of approximately 6.4-0.6. That is, in the same amount of games the Yankees had about 1.4 more wins of luck this year compared to that year.

That luck against the Twins continued into the ALDS of course. Not just with Phil Cuzzi's blown call, or with the baserunning gaffes from Carlos Gomez and Nick Punto, but in the numbers as well. The Yankees swept the series with a nine run differential. With only a three game sample size the numbers aren't at all reliable, but they still indicate that the Yankees got about a half win worth of luck in the series.

On a more specific level, the Yankees entered the bottom of the ninth Friday with just a 10.5% win expectancy. They were facing the best closer in the league that doesn't answer to "Mo". And the ever-unclutch A-Rod managed to tie it up. In the top of the eleventh, they faced a bases loaded, no one out jam, giving the Twins a run expectancy of about 2.28 runs. Instead, despite a screaming line drive off the bat of Delmon Young, they came away with none, and the Yankees walked off one more time.

Ten games. Ten wins. Five of them by a single run, two more by just two runs. An average margin of victory of just 2.5 runs; 1.9 runs removing the eight run victory in July. Four walkoff wins, three of them consecutively, the final three in extra innings. The Twins led in seven of the games, scoring first each time. Yet they didn't amass a single, solitary victory.

As I pointed out yesterday, the Twins were a relatively weak playoff team. Luck or no luck, the 2009 Yankees should take a five game series from the 2009 Twins nine times out of ten. But the Twins are still a good team, and it's highly improbable that any team, even one as good as the Yankees, should take ten straight games from them by such slim margins. That said, I'm relieved that if and when the Twins luck against the Yanks levels out, it'll be happening in the 2010 regular season rather than the 2009 post-season.

These Aren't The Washington Generals

The Nationals are a bad team. I think we can all agree on that. Being 30 games under .500 at this point in the season puts them on pace to lose roughly 120 games. That is mind-bogginglingly awful. But it doesn't mean that anything less than a sweep against them is a disgrace.

Beat writers don't play the "sweep or die" card very often, but they have in spades for this series.

Ken Davidoff:

Big-picture usually dominates this column. No game, or series, exists in a vacuum - at least, before September. But this week at Yankee Stadium, we're tossing the big picture in the garbage.

The Nationals are so horrible that a Yankees loss to them is virtually inexcusable.

Joel Sherman:

I try hard never to talk about must wins unless games truly are must wins or to apply weighty proportions to games in June. However, I will say this: The Yankees can't just win a series against Washington starting tomorrow. Anything less than a sweep is abject failure.

Pete Abe:

It’s tough to say the Yankees need to sweep. The Nats do figure to show up, after all. But winning two out of three won’t be satisfactory against this team.

In 21 series this year, the Nationals have "only" been swept seven times. Not doing something that only one out of three teams that has faced them this year have been able to do would be an "abject failure"? Remember when the Pirates top prospects lost to Manatee Community College? It's still baseball, guys. I understand the temptation to demand a sweep, but as last night goes to show, it only takes one bad pitch (especially in the New Yankee Stadium) to turn a game around.

After last night's loss, the Nationals' record is 16-46. A wining percentage of .258 is a lot closer to .333 (1-2) than it is to .000 (0-3). As you might expect is the case with any historically terrible team, their Pythagorean record (23-39, .370) indicates that they have been somewhat unlucky in their run distribution, meaning that their current wining percentage sells them a little short.

Tonight the Nats send their best pitcher, lefty John Lannan to face Chien Ming Wang. Even if Wang turns in by far his best performance of the year, the Yanks could very easily lose.

If the Yankees won two out of every three games, they would finish with 108 wins. Taking two out of three in this series is not a failure... it would improve their winning percentage on the year. Let's not get ahead of ourselves. As CC said after the he notched his sixth win of the season last night, "This is the big leagues, you can't take anyone lightly."

Game 33: Rock Bottom (?)

For the 8th time in 12 series this year the Yankees have dropped the opening game. They are behind the 8 ball to the Jays and are two games under .500 the season. 

The Bombers have been unlucky this year, but not on the field. They have been outscored by 25 runs and their 15-17 record is actually slightly better than the 14-18 their run differential projects. Compare that to the 15-19 Rays, who have outscored their opponents by 13 and based on that, should be 18-16. 

Standings Based On Pythagorean Record

22-13 - Toronto

18-15 - Boston

18-16 - Tampa Bay

14-18 - Yankees

14-19 - Baltimore

Many of the players on the Yankees have been injured or thus far underperformed. There's a fundamental difference between playing well on the field on getting unlucky in regards to how your runs are distributed and not playing up to potential. Much of the Yankees' record was accrued with Alex Rodriguez out of the line-up, but they have few other excuses to justify their slow start, aside from simple under achievement. Jorge Posada has appeared in 23 of 32 games, a proportion that is only getting worse in the short term. Mark Teixeira has is batting .191 and has an OPS+ of 91. A.J. Burnett's ERA is north of 5.   

At this point in each of the last three seasons, the Yankees have been at or below .500, so we are probably a little too familar with trying to grapple with the thought I'm about to put forward. 

Have they hit rock bottom?

Last year the low point came after a 12-2 loss to Baltimore that put the Yanks at 20-25. They won 89 games and obviously didn't reach the postseason. In '07 the Yanks slipped all the way to 21-29 before righting the ship and finishing 73-39 and capturing the Wild Card. In 2005, they started 11-19, but then ripped off 10 straight wins en route to 95.

It's painful to watch your team flounder below .500, especially when they spend as much money this offseason as the Yankees did (not to mention what it cost to build the Stadium). It's easy to feel like we've been jipped so far and the team is due for a turnaround. It's tougher to accept the fact the team the Yankees have put on the field night in and night out is a lot closer to the Orioles then they are to the Blue Jays, Sox or even the Rays. 

Tonight, Andy Pettite starts for the Bombers against Scott Richmond. It's only Scott's 11th major league start, which has been a pretty bad sign for the Yankees so far this year, judging by ther results against Matt Palmer, Brett Anderson and Jeff Niemann. But perhaps the fact that the Yanks have four guys that should probably be in the minor leagues in their line-up (Ramiro Pena, Fancisco Cervelli, Brett Gardner and Melky Cabrera) will work to their advantage.

Here's to hoping this is in fact Rock Bottom. 

But fuck it, if you know the rules to the game, play,
Cause when we die we know were all going the same way,
It's cool to be player, but it sucks to be the fan,
When all you need is bucks to be the man.

Big Innings

Last night, as the runs started to pile up in the second inning, I'm pretty sure all Yankee fans were thinking essentially the same thing, "Here we go again". There was a mix of bad luck, bad pitching, bad defense, and lack of focus. I said bad luck first because Luke Scott's single to lead off the inning only got through because Cano was shifted towards first. Teixeira narrowly missed two balls hit at him. Aubrey Huff's homer was a good breaking ball at his shoelaces that he somehow awkwardly jerked over the right field scoreboard.

Regardless of how these big innings are coming to be, this is becoming a trend for this team. The Yankees have been outscored 167-190 this year and a major part of that is the fact that they have gotten tagged for a ton of train wreck innings, but have largely been unable to return the favor.

The Yanks have been outscored 81-37 in these sitauations, more than making up for their negative run differential.

What is causing this? I've identified some contributing factors:

• Chien Ming Wang - Wang is responsible for four of these innings, which account for 22 runs. In relief of Wang against the Indians, Anthony Claggett allowed 6 more earned runs, bringing that total to 28.
  
  
• Situational Hitting - With runners in scoring position, opponents are hitting .321, which is better than any team in the MLB. By contrast, the Yanks are hitting .245, 20th in the league. With two outs and RISP, the Yankees are at .238 with a .795 OPS, while allowing .289 & .904 to the opposition.
  
  
• Walks - Yankee relievers are walking 4.5 men per nine innings pitched (starters 3.7), even though Mariano Rivera has pitched 11 innings and has given up none. Take Mo out of the equation and the average jumps to 5.1. The biggest culprits are Jose Veras and Edwar Ramirez, who have pitched a combined 30 innings and walked 22. The bullpen is striking out almost one guy an inning, but it's not enough to neutralize all the walks.
  
  
• + Hits - As a team they are also allowing more than a hit per inning, amounting to a WHIP of 1.526, fourth worst in the MLB. More baserunners prolong innings, and set the table for...
  
  
• Home Runs - Pinstriped pitchers have allowed 43 long balls this year, second only to the Orioles with 49. Their Home Run/Fly Ball ratio is 10.6%, tied with the O's for the worst in the AL by a full two percent. Camden Yards is a notorious bandbox and it's certainly starting to look like the New Stadium is as well. I've been reluctant to jump on this bandwagon, but they have allowed four more dingers at home in four fewer games (1.84 per game to 1.17). Our buddy Simon recently took a closer look at some of the cheap homers from Thursday's game. Where there is smoke, there is fire.

Some of those factors project to improve over time. Chien Ming Wang has already taken a little "injury" hiatus. He will be back at some point and there's pretty much no chance he will be as bad as he was to begin the season. And if he is, he won't be around for long. Situational hitting, especially disparities that drastic, should regress to the mean as well.

However, the bullpen is starting to become a serious problem. I've been critical of Girardi's handling of it so far, saying he has been mixing and matching too much. The stats bear this out. The Yankees are second in the AL only to the Rays is number of appearances by pitchers totalling less than three outs, with 33. The difference is that the Rays have match-up specialists like Brian Shouse, and J.P. Howell who can, you know, actually get guys out. Their bullpen ERA is also over a run and a half lower, so whatever Joe Maddon is doing seems to be working. It's not all Girardi's fault, obviously, the pitchers should be doing a better job.

Right now, the Yankees have the worst ERA in baseball and getting A-Rod back isn't going to help that either.