Half Empty Or Half Full?

Good morning, Fackers. Do you want the good news or the bad news first? This is always a tough conundrum. Do you want to hear the good stuff, only to have it tainted by the expectation of the bad? Or do you want to get the bad out of the way first and hang your hopes on the good news being able to save the day? Since neither of these items are of great import, let's start out will the positive.

Over at FanGraphs, R.J. Anderson took a look at what Phil Hughes was able to do out of the bullpen in 2009. To some extent, I think Hughes' contributions to the team were overlooked last season. Since he began the year as a starter with marginal success, his overall numbers were solid but not eye-popping (3.03 ERA, 86 IP, 1.116 WHIP, 3.43 K/BB).

However, if you look solely at his performance as a reliever, it was highly impressive. He struck out over 12 batters per 9 innings, had an ERA of 1.40 and a FIP of 1.83 in 51.1 IP. The FIP was particularly impressive considering that only 32 relievers have had a sub-2.00 FIP (minimum 40 IP) since 1990. Perhaps most surprisingly, not one of those belongs to Mariano Rivera. As Anderson acknowledges, FIP probably underrates Rivera because it can't measure his ability to induce weak contact, but Hughes' '09 campaign was impressive nonetheless.

Perhaps Hughes' ultimate destination will be the starting rotation, but there is reason to hope that he can be a real weapon out of the 'pen if that's where he ends up.

And now for the negative. As many analysts have felt the need to point out during this offseason, Dayn Perry at FOX Sports would like to remind everyone that just because Yankees won 103 games and the World Series last season, doesn't mean that they are a lock to do it again. Not exactly a bold statement, but let's take a look at Perry's points.

1. The lower baseline
2. Age

3. A brutal division

4. The vagaries of the postseason

The only one of those that needs explaining is the first. Perry cites the fact that the Yanks' Pythagorean record predicted that they would win only 95 games last year instead of 103. Of course, that still would have comfortably earned them a playoff berth. Which leads us to his final point.

If the 2001-2009 era taught you nothing else as a Yankee fan, you should be keenly aware that it's really, really hard to win a championship. The postseason isn't a total crapshoot, but the best team clearly doesn't always win. It's not to say that the Yanks were the the most worthy squad in all of those seasons, but there were probably three, four or five times that they entered October as the odds-on favorite, only to get bounced before claiming #27. Thanks to our generous sponsors at Bodog, we know that you can take the Yankees at 11/4 to win the World Series right now. But, that of course factors in things that not relevant on the field of play like betting volume. The real world odds are probably significantly higher.

If this was pre-2004, you might have had to remind some Yankees fans that it's far from a given that the team will repeat in 2010. Before 2008, you might have had to remind them that a postseason appearance is not a birthright. But I think anyone who is reading this blog knows better than to make those kind of assumptions in March.

Game 150: I Need To Know

This afternoon in Seattle, after a last second loss on Friday and a dominant win yesterday, the Yankees square off in a rubber match against the Mariners. Aside from the full slate of NFL games, two interesting match ups are taking place earlier in the day with implications to the playoff picture.

The Twins could pull to within one game of the Tigers with a win against them today which is important because the winner of the AL Central most likely facing the Yanks in the ALDS. Also, if the Rangers lose to the Angels, the Bombers will be in position to officially clinch a playoff berth by beating the Mariners. The Yanks would probably rather gain some cushion for home field advantage over the Angels because the Rangers are going to disappear from the picture soon enough, but those are some things to watch for.

Going for the Mariners this afternoon will be Ian Snell. After starting off the season poorly for the Pirates, Snell actually asked to be demoted to AAA back in June, citing "too much negativity" concerning his performances from the fans, media and even some bloggers. It was widely considered that he would be traded from the Pirates after the demotion and was, shortly before the non-waiver deadline. He, along with shortstop Jack Wilson, were exchanged for 5 minor leaguers, including catching prospect Jeff Clement.

Snell took Jarrod Washburn's spot on the roster after the lefty was shipped to Detroit, but hasn't performed well in his place. He has a 4.86 ERA in 9 starts but has averaged just over 5.0 IP an outing and has walked 30 while striking out 25. He's 4-2 over that stretch, but the team is only 4-5.

Joba Chamberlain toes the rubber for the Yankees this afternoon, making his 5th artificially shortened start in a row. His last time out was the most encouraging of the bunch, lasting 4 innings against the Angels, with the only run coming on a solo homer to Vlad Guerrero. He still wasn't especially efficient, needing 67 pitches to get those 12 outs, but it was an improvement over his previous efforts.

With only two starts remaining after this one in the regular season, Joba should be cleared for 5 innings this time out in order to work up to being fully stretched out for the postseason. It would be nice to know Joba is on the right track for October and good performance today would be a big step in that direction.

I need to know (I need to know),
Because I don't know how long,
I can hold on,
And if you're makin' me wait,
If you're leadin' me on,
I need to know (I need to know),
I need to know (I need to know).