ALCS Game 6: Free For All

There isn't much that needs to be said about tonight's game: win or go home.

Phil Hughes needs to have a start more like his first one in Texas than his last one in Texas and the Yankees need a result more like last Friday night's.

It's all hands on deck as the Big Fella says he's good for up to two innings out of the pen, on a just a day's rest, if needed. Mo and Kerry Wood are up for much as two innings apiece. The stakes are as high as they can get in this game of Texas Hold 'Em (off for at least more day)

Never before have I turned on you
You looked too good to me
Your beady eyes, they can cut me in two
And I just can't let you be
It's a free-for-all and I heard it said
You can bet your life
Stakes are high and so am I
It's in the air tonight

-Lineups-

Yankees:
With Tex on the shelf, I suppose this is what you would call the "normal" lineup against right handed pitching. Berkman moves up to the five spot.

Derek Jeter SS
Curtis Granderson CF
Robinson Cano 2B
Alex Rodriguez 3B
Lance Berkman 1B
Nick Swisher RF
Jorge Posada C
Marcus Thames DH
Brett Gardner LF

Phil Hughes RHP

Rangers:
Nelson Cruz and his sore hamstring are back in there; David Murphy gets the start with a righty on the mound. Bengie Molina returns to the lineup after Matt Treanor caught C.J. Wilson in Game 5.

Elvis Andrus, SS
Michael Young, 3B
Josh Hamilton, CF
Vladimir Guerrero, DH
Nelson Cruz, RF
Ian Kinsler, 2B
David Murphy, LF
Bengie Molina, C
Mitch Moreland, 1B

Colby Lewis RHP

The Fateful Fifth

Without falling victim to the fallacy of the predetermined outcome, there are is a rational way to look back at a baseball game and wonder what might have been. You have to identify a turning point in the game and restart from right there, assuming nothing going forward. But that method is always going to be unsatisfying because you can't say that that the Yankees would have won if a certain event didn't happen, you can only say that they might not have lost.

There are a lot of points that the Yankees probably wish they could rewind time and start last night's game from. Perhaps they'd like to put Brett Gardner up again with the bases loaded and one out in the fourth inning. The score was tied, but that was a real chance to break it open. Instead, Gardner settled for an RBI fielder's choice, Francisco Cervelli stayed in - instead of Jorge Posada pinch hitting - and struck out looking against Derek Holland and the Yankees walked away with a scant one run edge.

If they had to choose one spot though, it would likely be the moment before Mark Teixeira's fateful, balls-out sprint to first in the bottom of the fifth. As the ball dribbled up the third baseline, Teix reached for an extra gear that he apparently didn't have in order to beat out the double play and about fifteen feet from first, then reached for his right hamstring, lost his momentum and fell into an inadvertent feet-first slide, narrowly beating out the throw.

[As an aside... Could the hamstring have been weakened by the awkward attempt at tracking down the ball popped just into the stands by Nelson Cruz in the fourth inning? Maybe that at-bat would be a decent place to restart the tape from.]

Teixeira is a defensive wizard and generally a great hitter, but something about the postseason doesn't seem to agree with him. He's always said that one of the reasons he tends to start slow at the beginning of the regular season is that it takes time for both his right and left handed swings to align properly. Perhaps the long layoffs that are inherent to October baseball keep him too off balance to be the kind of devastating hitter he has the ability to be. In any event, it's not inconceivable that his replacement could hit better than he would have, in a small sample, from here on out. The Yankees will surely miss the plays Teix makes in the field (like the 3-6-1 DP he started in the top half of the fifth inning) but it's not impossible that the Yankees could win a World Series without him in their starting line up.

Nonetheless, this was still a soul-crushing moment. You could hear a groan of pure despair emanate from the crowd as he was helped towards the dugout and the feeling was that, even if the Yanks got out of this game with the win, their chances of defending their title just took a big hit. It was all too easy to forget that they were still holding at 3-2 edge, with men on first and second, only one out and had a roughly 75% chance of winning the game, according to WPA.

But A-Rod rapped into a double play, putting an end to what had begun as a two-on, no out potential rally and dropped that WPA down to 63%. That twin killing completed what might have been the worst imaginable outcome of having your 3 & 4 hitters up with two men on base and nobody out: force out (season ending injury), double play.

Still, it wasn't the end of the world. A.J. Burnett had acquitted himself quite nicely over the first five innings and seemed to be about as in control as one could rightfully expect him to be under the circumstances.

Burnett allowed a single to Vlad Guerrero to start the frame but sat down Nelson Cruz on a pivotal fielder's choice. Why is that important? Because Ian Kinsler, the next batter up, ripped a deep fly ball into center field that Curtis Granderson caught just off the warning track. The ball was so deep in fact, that Cruz tagged up from first base and slid safely into second, just ahead of a high throw from Granderson. Would Vlad and his ancient legs have tried to tag up under those circumstances? Highly doubtful.

So by advancing to second, Cruz opened up first base. And with David Murphy due up, Joe Girardi made one of the more controversial decisions of the evening and chose to intentionally walk him based on his history with Burnett, opting to face Bengie Molina with two men on instead of Murphy with just a man on second.

David Murphy is a capable hitter, but if Joe Girardi didn't like the match up, then why didn't he go to his bullpen in an attempt to shuffle the deck instead of putting a guy on base and leaving Burnett in?

What was he going to get out of Burnett, one more inning at most? Burnett was supposed to be on a short leash. Girardi might be the biggest proponent of two out pitching changes in the history of the fucking sport. Joba Chamberlain had been warming up for roughly two hours at that point. WHAT THE FUUUUCCCKKKK!??!?1

Sorry, I lost it for a second there. But for all the talk that there would be a quick hook for Burnett, the decision to walk Murphy (in addition to the one not to pinch hit for Cervelli) simply don't make any sense. Girardi was trying to ride Burnett for as long as possible and he paid dearly for it.

We all know too well what happened next. Molina took the first pitch he saw deep into the left field seats an delivered the running cockpunch from which the Yankees wouldn't recover.

They surely tried, however. With the bases loaded and the Bombers down by four in the eighth inning, Nick Swisher tried to avoid an inside breaking ball that got away from Darren Oliver. Replays showed that it caught Swisher's pant leg and he should have been awarded first base, thereby forcing in a run and putting the go-ahead run at the plate with just one out.

But on a night where almost everything went just about as wrong as possible for the Yanks, Angel Hernandez didn't see the contact and didn't buy Swisher's attempt at selling the fact that he got clipped when was contorted in some sort of yoga position (the dying giraffe?) on the ground.

There are losses and then there are impossibly brutal, heart-stabbing defeats like last night. The Yankees are still technically alive in the series and are a good bet to win tonight behind CC Sabathia, but even if they take the next two games, they'll have to get past Cliff Lee in Game 7. It's not over, but it certainly fucking feels like it is.

Other incredible/horrible moments that didn't make the cut:

• Jeffery Maier Part Douche
  
• Lance Berkman's overturned near homerun, that might have even glanced against the foul pole
  
• Brett Gardner's bat breaking the TBS camera
  
• A near Bartman moment in the top of the 5th

ALCS Game 3: Godzilla

After the two starting pitching performances the Yankees got from CC Sabathia and Phil Hughes in Games 1 & 2 in Arlington, they are lucky to be heading into tonight's game with the series all squared at one game apiece.

The Bombers will face a severe uphill climb this evening as they will be squaring off against a man with the raw power of Randy Johnson, the stamina of Old Hoss Radbourn, the heart of Jack Morris, the guile of Whitey Ford, the gusto of Pedro Martinez, the control of Greg Maddux and the soul of Satchel Page. Ladies and gentlemen, I could only be referring to the legendary, the unstoppable, the untouchable, and the immortal Cliff Lee.

There isn't a pitcher on Earth that a team would rather have starting a playoff game for them right now ahead of Lee except for maybe Roy Halladay, who oh-by-the-way gave up four earned runs en route to a Phillies' loss on Saturday night in what was supposed to be the greatest and most epic playoff pitching duel of all-fucking-time. Yes, the man who threw the second no-hitter in postseason history in the NLDS followed it up with somewhat of a dud against a pretty marginal lineup his next time out. A pitcher's duel not living up to expectations? Unheard of!

In all seriousness, the Yankees are going to need a strong effort from Andy Pettitte and a much better offensive output than either game they played in Texas. That means getting some runs on the board early instead of spotting the Rangers five and trying to pull an eighth inning underwater straight jacket escape like they are David Blaine or some shit. It was great when it worked on Friday night, but as we saw on Saturday afternoon, the stars don't always align when attempting to make up a five run deficit with your last six outs.

Of course, getting those early runs on the board is going to be the tough part. What makes Lee so tough is that he constantly throws strikes. He hasn't walked anyone in two starts this postseason and gave up only 18 free passes in 212 innings in regular season play, which, unsurprisingly, led the Major Leagues. The Yanks generally try to work the count and let pitchers put them on base, but employing that approach against guys who pepper the strike zone relentlessly will just get you behind in the count.

To get to Lee, the Yankees are going to have to do so with their bats and not their eyes. Baserunners will need to come in the form of hits. If they are to run up his pitch count, they'll need to do it primarily by fouling pitches off. Lee doesn't do much to hurt himself, so like Marcus Thames told Jack Curry, the Bombers need pounce on the mistakes that Lee does make.

All of this is easier said than done of course, but the Yankees have the most potent lineup in the game and therefore should have as good a chance as any team at knocking off the mythical beast that is Cliff Lee and regaining the edge in the series.

With a purposeful grimace and a terrible sound,
He pulls the spitting high tension wires down.
Helpless people on subway trains,
Scream for God as he looks in on them.
He picks up a bus and he throws it back down,
As he wades through the buildings toward the center of town.

Oh no, they say he's got to go—
Go, go, Godzilla..

Oh no, there goes Tokyo—

Go, go, Godzilla...

-Lineups-

Yankees: With a left hander on the mound, the Game 1 lineup makes a return.

Derek Jeter SS
Nick Swisher RF
Mark Teixeira 1B
Alex Rodriguez 3B
Robinson Cano 2B
Marcus Thames DH
Jorge Posada C
Curtis Granderson CF
Brett Gardner LF

Andy Pettitte LHP

Rangers: Francoeur has good numbers against Pettitte in 11 career ABs, so Ron Washington is giving him the start in right field. Bengie Molina and Mitch Moreland get to keep their spots are each driving in a run in Game 2.

Elvis Andrus SS
Michael Young 3B
Josh Hamilton CF
Vlad Guerrero DH
Nelson Cruz LF
Ian Kinsler 2B
Jeff Francoeur RF
Bengie Molina C
Mitch Moreland 1B

Cliff Lee LHP

No-No-No-No-No-No-lan Ryan Face

I'm not sure if the Nolan Ryan Face from last night will reach full internet meme status because the netting in front of his face is kind of distracting, but here's us trying to do our part:

IS THIS REAL LIFE??///1!?

ALCS Game 1: Friday Night Lights

Being a Yankee fan this week has been a lot like being a football fan. After dispensing with the Twins by completing a three game ALDS sweep last Saturday night, we've been left with an interminable wait for tonight's ALCS Game One. In the interim, the mainstream media - both local and national - and the blogosphere have filled the football-like week long gap between games with football-like coverage. That is, there hasn't been nearly enough legitimate news to cover six news cycles, so every little tidbit of information has been overly dissected.

As the Yankees return to the field tonight after five days off, perhaps the football connections are appropriate. Fall is upon us. And when C.J. Wilson's first pitch kicks off the 2010 American League Championship Series, it'll be on a Friday night, under the lights, in Texas, where Friday night high school football is akin to religion.

Back here in the tri-state area though, baseball is the predominant sports obsession, and we'll get our fix tonight as the Yanks and Rangers play Game One of the ALCS, featuring a pitching rematch from game one of their regular season series. CC got the better of C.J. in that match-up of initialed southpaws, but Mother Nature got the best of them both, as rain stopped the game after six innings, with the Yankees taking home a 5-1 win. Sabathia wouldn't face the Rangers again during the regular season; Wilson would face the Yanks twice more and fail to record a decision in the two Texas victories.

As Moshe pointed out at TYU last night, there's some irrational pessimism plaguing many Yankee fans currently, as many are assuming that Cliff Lee's two starts and A.J. Burnett's one start essentially guarantee three Texas victories. In that line of thinking, it becomes critical that the Yankees win all four remaining games to ensure a series victory. I certainly don't subscribe to those theories, but with their ace on the mound tonight, it is important for the Yankees to get off to a good start.

(By the way, while Lee does appear to be some sort of post-season savant in the way guys like Mo and Pettitte are, it doesn't mean he's untouchable. He went through quite a rough patch following his trade to Texas. The Yankee offense is good enough to put runs on the board against anyone. And Lee is matched up against certified Big Game Pitcher Andy Pettitte. It may be an uphill battle, but it's certainly not insurmountable. As for Burnett, however unlikely, it's not totally out of the realm of possibility that he might actually pitch well. Even if he doesn't, he's matched up against Tommy Hunter, who the Yankees might easily knock around the yard. But what do I know, I'm the same guy who foolishly suggested that the Rangers should part ways with Ron Washington last spring).

So the waiting is nearly over. No more talk of Alex Rodriguez and Mark Teixeira (and Marcus Thames for that matter) returning to Texas as if they've never been back since being traded away. No more talk of the largest payroll disparity in post-season history (funny how people forget that the Yankees and the rest of MLB subsidized the bankrupt Rangers mid-season acquisitions of Bengie Molina, Lee, Jorge Cantu, Christian Guzman, and Jeff Francoeur). No more worrying about Burnett and Lee in later games. Tonight it's just about Game One, and Sabathia and Wilson under the Friday night lights of Texas.

I'll leave you with one final thought: The Minnesota Twins began life as the Washington Senators in 1901. They entered the 2010 ALDS with a nine game post-season losing streak against the Yankees. The Yankees swept them to keep the streak alive. The Texas Rangers began life as the Washington Senators in 1961. They enter the 2010 ALCS with a nine game post-season losing streak against the Yankees. I don't think that means anything, but I hope history repeats itself.

So, in honor of this Friday night in Texas, here is quite possibly the lamest song choice in Fack Youk preview history. It's the theme song from the TV show that stars Derek Jeter's special lady friend:



-Lineups-

Yankees:
It's the standard lineup vs LHP, with Marcus Thames as the DH, Swisher in the two spot and Granderson batting eighth. There was some speculation that Austin Kearns, who has hit Wilson well, might get the nod over Granderson or Gardner, both of whom have not hit Wilson well. But both lefties have been productive of late and Kearns, who was not played in nearly two weeks now, has not.

Derek Jeter SS
Nick Swisher RF
Mark Teixeira 1B
Alex Rodriguez 3B
Robinson Cano 2B
Marcus Thames DH
Jorge Posada C
Curtis Granderson CF
Brett Gardner LF

Rangers:
With C.J. Wilson on the mound for Texas, his usual catcher Matt Treanor gets the nod over Bengie Molina. With CC Sabathia on the mound for the Yanks, righty bats Jorge Cantu and Jeff Francoeur play over lefty swingers Mitch Moreland and David Murphy/Julio Borbon.

Elvis Andrus SS
Michael Young 3B
Josh Hamilton CF
Vladimir Guerrero DH
Nelson Cruz LF
Ian Kinsler 2B
Jeff Francoeur RF
Jorge Cantu 1B
Matt Treanor C

Game 12: Dust My Broom

In the first two games of this series, the Rangers have been betrayed by their defense. They've been charged with one error in both games, leading to two unearned runs, but if not for some home cooking from official scorer Bill Shannon, the error total would be closer to five or six. If not for Texas' lackluster leather on Friday night, the Yankees may not have escaped with a rain shortened victory.

Texas may have a cure for what ails them this afternoon, as Rich Harden takes to the hill. Since making his Major League debut with the A's in 2003, Harden has been a strikeout machine. He's never posted a K/9 below 7.9 and has been at 9.5 or above for the last four seasons, including 10.9 and 11.0 in the last two years. Harden's also fairly adept at giving out free passes, posting walk rates greater than league average in all but one of his seven seasons, and allowing 35% of his career baserunners against via the walk. Those factors combined mean that Harden generally puts less pressure on his defense than the average pitcher.

An extreme example of this occurred in Harden's first start this year, against Toronto on April 7th. Harden went only 3.2 IP, but struck out 8, walked 5, plunked a batter, and surrendered a gopher ball as the only hit he allowed. He faced 19 batters and only four of them put the ball in play. And even at that, his defense still made an error behind him, with Michael Young booting a ball at third. Crash Davis would say Harden was a little less fascist his next time out, only stirking out three over six innings, and allowing 18 balls in play, with another error made behind him.

For the Yankees, Andy Pettitte will make his third start of the season. Over the past several years we've seen Pettitte morph into the stereotypical crafty lefty, seemingly working his way into and out of trouble every other inning, but rarely getting touched up. Never has that been more true than in his first two starts this year. Through twelve innings of work, Pettitte has surrendered eleven hits, issued six base on balls, and hit a batter. But he's yet to allow a home run, and has managed to strand a ridiculous 94.4% of those 18 runners. With 17 runners left on base and just a single earned run on his ledger, Pettitte boasts a sparkling 0.75 ERA despite a 4.46 xFIP.

In contrast to Aprils past, the Yankees have been moving right along in the early goings of the 2010 season. They've won their first four series for the first time since 1926, and today, they go for their first sweep of the young season. It's been a happy home stand, with four wins already in the bank. Time to dust off the brooms and then leave home for a West Coast road trip. To help us on our way, here's the King of the Slide Guitar:

I'm getting up soon in the morning, I believe I'll dust my broom
I'm getting up soon in the morning, I believe I'll dust my broom
I quit the best gal I'm loving
Now my friends can get my room

I believe, I believe my time ain't long
I believe, I believe my time ain't long
I ain't gonna leave my baby
And break up my happy home

-Lineups-

Yankees:
Derek Jeter is nursing a head cold, so he gets the day off. Brett Gardner moves up to the lead off spot and Ramiro Pena gets his first start of the year, taking Jeter's spot at short and Gardner's customary spot at the bottom of the order. The rest of the lineup remains as usual.

Gardner LF
Johnson DH
Teixeira 1B
Rodriguez 3B
Cano 2B
Posada C
Granderson CF
Swisher RF
Pena SS

Rangers:
Some changes for Texas today. Lefties Julio Borbon and Chris Davis hit the bench for the first time this series. Taylor Teagarden, still hitless on the year, and Joaquin Arias are also not starting. Josh Hamilton slides over to center; Elvis Andrus, like Brett Gardner, moves from the nine hole to the leadoff spot. David Murphy, Ryan Garko, Matt Treanor, and Andres Blanco all see their first action for the weekend.

Elvis Andrus SS
Michael Young 3B
Josh Hamilton CF
Vladimir Guerrero DH
Nelson Cruz RF
Ryan Garko 1B
David Murphy LF
Matt Treanor C
Andres Blanco 2B

Game 11 Recap

[WPA data via FanGraphs]

1. The Yankees loaded the bases in the second inning on singles by Jorge Posada, Nick Swisher and Derek Jeter. With two outs, Nick Johnson worked the count to 3-1 and fouled off three straight pitches before taking a cutter high for ball four and forcing in a run. Mark Teixeira followed that with a broken bat single that just reached the outfield grass between first and second base, putting the Yanks up 2-0. With the bases still loaded, A-Rod swung at the first pitch he saw and flew out to center, ending the inning.

2. Scott Feldman ran into more trouble in the third. After getting Robinson Cano to ground out to second, he gave up a single to Posada and a double to Curtis Granderson before Ron Washington had seen enough. Wash called on Doug Mathis to face Nick Swisher.

Swish hit a fly ball to shallow left, not deep enough to score Jorge Posada and the Rangers once again were one out away from getting out of the inning. However, Brett Gardner hit an infield single, scoring Posada and brining Jeter to the plate. With the Captain at bat, Gardner took of for second base and Taylor Teagarden sailed the throw into the outfield and Curtis Granderson took off for home.

Jeter then followed with a rare home run to left, a two run shot that put the Yanks ahead 6-0.

3. A-Rod hit his first home run of the year in the bottom of the 4th, a solo shot that extended the lead to 7-0.

4. Despite getting 8 men on base against him, the Rangers didn't get to A.J. Burnett. The same could not be said for Alfredo Aceves. Nelson Cruz blasted a three run homer off of him in the 8th inning to bring the score to 7-3 Yankees. That was the final.

IFs, ANDs & BUTs

• The Yankees had a host of infield hits today. Gardner picked up three of them, and one each for Granderson, Jeter and Teixeira.
  
  
• In the at bat that Teix eventually came up with the RBI single, he took a 0-1 curveball that was clearly low and outside but called a strike. Obviously, 0-2 is worlds away from 1-1 and it looked for a moment like that call might doom the at bat, but alas it did not.
  
  
• A.J. Burnett had three 1-2-3 innings but had a runner get to at least second base in the other four, although none of them came around to core. The Rangers loaded the bases in the 5th inning with one out but Burnett got Julio Borbon to pop out to first and Michael Young to fly out to right. His final line: 7 IP, 0ER, 6H, 2BB, 7K.
  
  
• Cano's ten game hitting streak to begin the season came to and end, but after a 3-4 effort, Jeter's rolls on.
  
  
• The Yanks worked only two walks in the game, both by Nick Johnson. They only struck out four times whereas the Rangers had 10 Ks.
  
  
• Ramiro Pena entered as a defensive replacement in the 8th inning, his second appearance of the year.
  
  
• After Aveces gave up the home run, Damaso Marte and Joba Chamberlain combined to get the final five outs without giving up a baserunner.
  

The series - which the Yanks have already won - concludes with a matchup between Andy Pettitte and Rich Harden at 1:05 tomorrow.

Game 11: End Of The Line

The Yankees have completed three series this season, taking them all by virtue of winning the rubber game. Today, A.J. Burnett had the opportunity to deliver the club's fourth series win of 2010 without having it go down to the final game.

After a fair but unimpressive start at Fenway Park in the season's second game, Burnett had a very good outing in last Sunday's series finale in St. Petersburg. He surrendered two runs in the first, then shut the Rays down over his final six innings of work, scattering six hits and three walks over the afternoon. Perhaps the only blemish on his line that day was an uncharacteristic strikeout total, with just one K on the afternoon.

In his career, Burnett has made on relief appearance and eight starts against the Rangers, with three of the starts coming during his first year in pinstripes. Burnett pitched quite well against Texas last year, posting a 2.84 ERA and fanning 27 while allowing just 23 baserunners in 19 innings of work. His first two outings against them came in back-to-back starts on May 27th and June 2nd. In the latter, Burnett buzzed the tower of Nelson Cruz, after the Rangers had taken some liberties with Mark Teixeira earlier in the game. Though Burnett was not ejected from the game, it did earn him a suspension, which was later reduced to the point that he didn't miss a single start. His final 2009 start against the Rangers came on August 27th. He got saddled with the loss in that one, but did manage to whiff a season high twelve batters over six innings of work.

Opposing Burnett will be Scott Feldman. Armed with a new contract extension that could pay him just over $20M through 2013, the 6'7" righty has been impressive in his two outings thus far this season, allowing just twelve hits, one walk, and four earned runs through fourteen innings of work.

Feldman has four career appearances against the Yankees, three of them starts. In them, he's 2-1 with a 3.72 ERA and 1.45 WHIP over 19.1 IP, and has allowed four home runs. He picked up the victory in his only 2009 start against the Yankees, June 3rd at the Stadium, allowing eight baserunners and two runs over six and a third.

The forecast isn't great for today, with temps in the mid-fifties, breezes at 10 to 15 MPH, and the sun may not shine, but it's all right, at the very least the chance of rain is much less than it was last night. After playing a rain shortened game last night, the first for the Yankees since September 2006, the two clubs will look today's game right to the end of the line.

Well it's all right, riding around in the breeze
Well it's all right, if you live the life you please
Well it's all right, even if the sun don't shine
Well it's all right, we're going to the end of the line

-Lineups-

Yankees:
Not much to see here folks. The "A" line up returns after a couple games with a few subs scattered in the order. Posada is back behind the plate to catch Burnett for the third time in as many starts this year. Marcus Thames grabs some pine for the first time since Wednesday; Mark Teixeira continues to look to snap out of his April funk.

Jeter SS
Johnson DH
Teixeira 1B
Rodriguez 3B
Cano 2B
Posada C
Granderson CF
Swisher RF
Gardner LF

Rangers:

Julio Borbon, CF
Michael Young, 3B
Josh Hamilton, LF
Vladimir Guerrero, DH
Nelson Cruz, RF
Chris Davis, 1B
Joaquin Arias, 2B
Taylor Teagarden, C
Elvis Andrus, SS

Dissecting The DH Signings

So far this offseason, free-swinging goat roaster Vladimir Guerrero, World Series Hero and spousal sketch artist Hideki Matsui, and injury-prone on-base messiah Nick Johnson have all been signed as DHs for elite offensive teams.

According to the Dallas News Vlad's deal is for $5M with incentives making comparable to the $5.5M deal Johnson got from the Yankees and the $6M one Matsui received from the Angels. Johnson's contract includes bonuses for every 25 plate appearances over 400 and mutual option or buyout for 2011, giving it the largest possible value of the three. But for this coming year, the values are likely to be quite similar.

While Johnson is more than 5 years younger than either Matsui or Guerrero, he carries similar risk of injury, having spent far more than his fair share of time on the DL over the course of his career. Johnson may be capable of playing first base and Matsui may want to play the outfield, but all three figure to DH almost exclusively in 2010.

Offensively, each has a unique profile. By getting on base at a .400 clip, Johnson offers something much different than either of the other two aging sluggers, but when healthy each provides similar overall value to a lineup.

The biggest difference between Matsui and Guerrero is that Matsui is coming off one of the best years of his career (not to mention the World Series MVP), while Vlad just completed one of his worst, both in terms of games played and at bat for at bat production. Johnson, meanwhile, came to the plate 574 times, the second most in his career and got on base quite often, but his slugging percentage was the lowest of the three.

However, the Yankees would gladly trade points in SLG for OBP considering he's going to be hitting in front of Mark Teixeira and Alex Rodriguez. Matsui and Guerrero are going to hit more towards the middle of the order and their higher slugging percentages will be more useful in driving in runs. In terms of a fit for the line up, it seems that Johnson and the Yankees are a perfect match.

So between Matsui and Guerrero, who figures to provide more value for their team next year?

The chart below shows Vlad's numbers since he came to Anaheim back in 2004 (darker numbers are better).

While it hasn't been an even decline across the board, it's easy to see that he's fallen a long way in every category listed above in the last six years. Conversely, Matsui's 2009 line (.274/.367/.509) was very similar to his career marks (.292/.370/.482) with the exception of his batting average being slightly lower and his slugging percentage slightly higher. While Guerrero is still (supposedly) younger than Matsui and had a higher, longer career peak, it seems as though Vlad is further into his decline phase.

Plate discipline has a way insulating a batter from the effects of aging and that is one category Matsui owns Vlad in. Vlad walked in only 4.7% of his plate appearances last year, the lowest of his career, while Matsui walked in 12.3%, sightly above his career average.

Was luck a factor? Matsui had a BABIP of .275, which was .23 lower than his career mark. Guerrero was down slightly to .314 from his mean of .322. Vlad hit more fly balls in 2009 than in previous years, particularly infield fly balls. His line drive percentage was actually up last year, but he saw a dive in his HR/FB rate (-4.6%). Matsui had the same underlying factors ( increases in FB, IFFB, LD%), but his HR/FB rate nearly doubled to 17.9%. You can chalk some of the difference up to the New Yankee Stadium, but it appears he was fortunate with his results as well.

In 2010, Matsui will be moving to a less favorable hitter's park while Vlad will be moving to a more favorable one. As Jack Moore points out over at FanGraphs today, Vlad has excellent numbers at the Ballpark in Arlington, but "the data from the last few years in Anaheim far outweighs the fact that he’s killed the Rangers at home over the last six."

If I were a GM, I would be worried about Vlad's slow downward spiral over the past couple of years. While he had a higher, more sustained peak than Matsui, he seems to be more susceptible to the aging process than Godzilla. His bat speed has already started to leave him and the results have not been good. This isn't to say that Matsui is a sure bet either with his balky knees and all, but his patient approach at the plate and solid production last year seem to make him a better value in 2010.

Digging Out From The Weekend

Good morning Fackers. Hopefully you have managed to shovel yourself out from the storm that buried much of the East Coast throughout the day on Saturday and into Sunday morning. Since it was the last weekend for people to roam the malls in search of Christmas gifts, retailers are predictably acting like they were just held up at gunpoint.

The Bears and Ravens ended up playing in Baltimore despite the fact that the Bears were stuck in Chicago until late Saturday night and M&T Bank Stadium being covered with almost two feet of the white stuff. The Ravens claimed it cost them almost $500,000 to remove all of it. According to the Redskins they've employed 1,200 workers to relocate the 25 million pounds of snow on FedEx Field before the Giants and Redskins play tonight.

Unfortunately, the storm didn't manage to put a damper on the opening weekend for that movie with the blue people that I refuse to name, which has been annoying us with their contrived promotions for two fucking months. Is there no justice in this world?

In baseball news, after waiting more than a week for Mike Lowell to take a physical for the Rangers, the Red Sox saw the trade that would have sent him and $9M to Texas in exchange for catching prospect Max Ramirez fall through. Lowell failed that physical because it indicated that the third baseman will need surgery to repair a torn ligament in his right thumb. Recovery time is supposed to be 6-8 weeks and he should be ready for Spring Training in some capacity, but D.J. Short over at Circling the Bases thinks the Red Sox are pissed at Lowell, even if they aren't saying it:

...You have to understand how frustrated the Red Sox are with Lowell for not having the problem addressed sooner. Not only because of the nixed trade, but what might have happened had the Red Sox stayed with the status quo. Lowell likely wouldn't have had the thumb examined during the offseason at all had Texas not tentatively agreed to a trade. They have every reason to be be furious with Lowell, even if they will say otherwise publicly.

Lowell's injury also devastates his trade value when the Sox are finally able to move him. Even if the Sox are willing to eat $9M of his contract, almost every team is going to have committed to another option at third base by then. Furthermore, although the injury isn't assumed to be very serious, teams are likely to be skeptical that he will make a full recovery.

This turn of events has left the Sox in a very difficult spot. The easiest thing to do would be penciling in the Youkstah at 3B and allowing Casey Kotchman to man first. But over the past three years, Kotchman has been only league average at first base, hitting .279/.346/.421 (101 OPS+) in 1521 plate appearances. They could venture into the free agent market to find another third baseman, but it falls steeply after Adrian Beltre to guys like Joe Crede, Melvin Mora and Mike Lamb. Do they overspend to cover their asses for this year, or take their chances that Lowell can be productive at the plate and his defense will rebound from last year? Neither of those are very appealing options.

Lowell was signed for $37.5M over 3 years after his World Series MVP and hasn't played more than 120 games or been significantly better than league average offensively in either of the first two seasons of the deal. The third one doesn't look a whole lot better.

Game 150: I Need To Know

This afternoon in Seattle, after a last second loss on Friday and a dominant win yesterday, the Yankees square off in a rubber match against the Mariners. Aside from the full slate of NFL games, two interesting match ups are taking place earlier in the day with implications to the playoff picture.

The Twins could pull to within one game of the Tigers with a win against them today which is important because the winner of the AL Central most likely facing the Yanks in the ALDS. Also, if the Rangers lose to the Angels, the Bombers will be in position to officially clinch a playoff berth by beating the Mariners. The Yanks would probably rather gain some cushion for home field advantage over the Angels because the Rangers are going to disappear from the picture soon enough, but those are some things to watch for.

Going for the Mariners this afternoon will be Ian Snell. After starting off the season poorly for the Pirates, Snell actually asked to be demoted to AAA back in June, citing "too much negativity" concerning his performances from the fans, media and even some bloggers. It was widely considered that he would be traded from the Pirates after the demotion and was, shortly before the non-waiver deadline. He, along with shortstop Jack Wilson, were exchanged for 5 minor leaguers, including catching prospect Jeff Clement.

Snell took Jarrod Washburn's spot on the roster after the lefty was shipped to Detroit, but hasn't performed well in his place. He has a 4.86 ERA in 9 starts but has averaged just over 5.0 IP an outing and has walked 30 while striking out 25. He's 4-2 over that stretch, but the team is only 4-5.

Joba Chamberlain toes the rubber for the Yankees this afternoon, making his 5th artificially shortened start in a row. His last time out was the most encouraging of the bunch, lasting 4 innings against the Angels, with the only run coming on a solo homer to Vlad Guerrero. He still wasn't especially efficient, needing 67 pitches to get those 12 outs, but it was an improvement over his previous efforts.

With only two starts remaining after this one in the regular season, Joba should be cleared for 5 innings this time out in order to work up to being fully stretched out for the postseason. It would be nice to know Joba is on the right track for October and good performance today would be a big step in that direction.

I need to know (I need to know),
Because I don't know how long,
I can hold on,
And if you're makin' me wait,
If you're leadin' me on,
I need to know (I need to know),
I need to know (I need to know).

Recycling A Thirty-Six Year Old Bad Idea

Except this one somehow worked out...

Something referred to as "Brett Tomko" allegedly threw a complete game, 5 hit shutout last night. Against the Rangers. In Texas, knocking the Rangers 4.5 behind the Red Sox in the Wild Card. Multiple sources have confirmed this outlandish tale, however I remain skeptical and will be reviewing the game via MLB.tv shortly for anything suspicious.

Since picked up by the A's, The Artist has gone 4-1 with a 2.95 ERA in 6 starts with only one poor outing, striking out 22 while walking 6. I guess he had a right to be all bitchy about not being "given a fair shot".

It was his 100th career win, which might be somewhat impressive if he didn't have 102 losses.

Just to review, Tomko gave up 12 earned runs in 20.2 innings (5.23 ERA) with the Yankees, mostly in relief, which is theoretically easier than starting and had a tiny BABIP of .230. But since moving to Oakland and pitching solely in the rotation, 36 year old Brett Tomko, owner of a 92 career ERA+ has also given up 12 runs, but in 36.2 IP for an ERA two and a quarter runs lower. He's won 4 games for a team that has gone 13-13 over that time. Damn you Billy Beane!

If I was John Sterling, I'd say "I'll tell you what, that's why you just can't predict baseball!!11!" but instead I'll just pose the rhetorical question, "What the fuck?".

Ample Opportunities Wasted

I'm glad today's game was a weekday matinee. As such, I was at work and couldn't watch with my usual attention to detail. Because as frustrated as I am with today's outcome, it'd be much worse had I been hanging on every pitch.

Where to begin? Let me throw some numbers out there, particularly a few that our friend Jason from the Heartland was pointing out during our live game chat. Texas offense today: 15 Ks, 3 BB. Yankee offense today: 10 K, 8 BB. Advantage Yankees.

How about these? Texas starter Dustin Nippert: 3.2 IP, 4 H, 7 BB, 3 K, 98 pitches, 52 strikes (53%), 27.73 pitches per IP. Yankees starter A.J. Burnett: Perfect through 3.2 IP, 6 IP, 2 H, 3 BB, 12 K, 105 pitches, 63 strikes (60%), 17.5 pitches per IP. Advantage Burnett.

So where did this one go wrong? Texas HRs: 3. Yankees HRs: 0. Texas w/RISP: 3 for 4. Yankees w/RISP: 2 for 12. Texas LOB: 2. Yankees LOB: 12. Runners left in scoring position, Texas: 1, Yankees: 6. Big advantage Texas. That's your ball game right there.

The Yankees had more opportunity than they rightly needed. They worked Dustin Nippert over, letting him throw no fewer than 17 pitches in any inning, forcing him over 25 in two of the four innings in which he appeared, and put six runners in scoring position against him. But only two scored. And when Jason Grilli releived him, the Rangers' bullpen shut the Yankees down over the last five and a third, tossing shutout ball and allowing just two hits and a walk.

A.J. Burnett had a very good start. As mentioned, he was perfect through 3.2 IP, and would have been perfect through four had he been given the benefit of a borderline call on a 2-2 fastball to Josh Hamilton that MLB Gameday appears to indicate as a strike. Instead, Hamilton drew a two out walk, and the wheels came off from there. Another walk, to Nelson Cruz, followed, and then Ian Kinsler hit his first of two home runs on the day to give Texas a lead they would never relinquesh.

Burnett fanned a season high 12. He allowed only two hits and three walks. But he was victimized by the long ball. The Kinsler long ball accounted for all three runs given up by Burnett and it was enough to do him in.

Unlike their Texas counterparts, the Yankee bullpen didn't offer much relief. Thanks to all the stirkeouts, Burnett's pitch count grew rapidly, and as a result he was through after six. Phil Coke came on for the seventh and continued his recent trend of poor outings. The first three batters he faced yielded a ground rule double, a bunt single on a ball Coke himself misplayed, and another three run homer.

After getting two outs, Coke gave way to David Robertson, who has been quite reliable of late. D-Rob closed out the seventh and got two quick outs in the eighth before giving up Kinsler's second longball of the day. The only remote silver lining was a perfect ninth from a struggling Alfredo Aceves. All told, the Yankee pen allowed four base runners in three innings of work, and as a result of the homeruns, all four scored.

Another disturbing part of today's game was the Yankees' continuing penchant for giving up two out runs. Of the seven runs plated by Texas today, four came with two outs. Perhaps in an effort to actually let Phil Hughes pitch every so often, the Yankees can start using him to get the third out of each inning and stash him elsewhere in the field the rest of the time.

Once again, it's tough to complain. On the whole, the Yankees are still in good shape. They're not going to win every game. But I have a hard time stomaching a loss where they beat themselves rather than getting beat by the opponent. Still, it's only the second series the Yankees have lost since the All-Star break. They get chance to avenge the first starting tomorrow when the White Sox come to town. We'll see you then.

(Photos)

Game 127: Rangers At Yankees Live Chat

Game 127: Life Without You

After A.J. Burnett got touched up in Boston on June 9th, he tore off a run of eleven quality starts in twelve outings, a run that a hit a big road bump last Saturday, once again in a start at Fenway Park. This afternoon Burnett gets his first start since then, and I'm hoping that he'll kick up another string of outings like the one that followed his last Boston Massacre.

If Burnett's two previous starts against Texas this year are any indication, he has a good chance a starting another run today. Burnett made consecutive starts against the Rangers in late May and early June, going 2-0 with a 2.08 ERA over 13 innings of work in which he allowed 11 hits, 5 walks, and struck out 15. The June start was the one in which he earned a six game suspension, later reduced to five games, for retaliating on behalf of Mark Teixeira by doing a little head hunting against Nelson Cruz.

Six foot seven righty Dustin Nippert gets the nod for the Rangers. Nippert has never faced the Yankees and was on the DL until July this year, missing the first two series between these teams. Entering the season with a 6.42 ERA (70 ERA+) through 141.2 IP over parts of four Major League seasons, Nippert seems to have figured it out a bit better in 2009. In eleven appearances, seven starts, Nippert has a 3.95 ERA (114 ERA+) that's more than a run and a half better than any of his previous seasons. His peripherals suggest he's closer to league average than his ERA indicates, but this season could mark a turning point in his career. He'll battle a fellow West Virginian whenever Nick Swisher steps into the box today. Cue the dueling banjos.

With today being a day game after a night game, Joe Girardi hinted during yesterday's pre-game that Jorge Posada would have today off. Given that today is Burnett's first start since last Saturday's disaster, that news only served as further fuel to the media-driven fire that Posada can't call a good game and doesn't work well with the pitchers. Why this has been a recurring storyline over the course of the season, I cannot figure.

While Posada certainly won't go down in history as one of the game's greatest defensive catchers or most astute game callers, the guy isn't a liability behind the plate. Oh, that and he's carved out a borderline Hall of Fame career with his bat, and that's more than compensated for any defensive short comings, real or imagined. Just last year the Yankees caught a glimpse of life without Posada, and it wasn't a pretty experience. Has everyone forgotten about that already? The aggravation of a nagging finger inury last night will keep Posada out of the line up today. The Yankees, and their fans, had better hope that it doesn't sideline Posada for any extended periods down the stretch. They're not nearly as good without him.

Don't forget to come back at game time for our Fack Youk Live Game Chat.

With any luck, today will mark the last in string of death remembrance postings I've made this month. When the Yankees and Rangers had their first series this season, we chose Texas guitar slinger Stevie Ray Vaughan for one of the games. Today, on the nineteenth anniversary of his death, we'll go back to one of the most gifted musicians ever to put a guitar strap over his shoulder. SRV had put his personal demons to rest and had been playing with renewed purpose when he boarded a helicopter shortly after midnight on August 27, 1990. Taking off in a fog, the chopper failed to climb to a sufficient altitude during takeoff, and crashed into a nearby hillside. No one on board survived. Vaughan had written "Life Without You" as a tribute to a deceased friend, but after his own untimely death, it became like a self-penned elegy.



Oh now baby, tell me how have you been
We all have missed you, and the way you grin
The day is necessary, every now and then
For souls to move on, giving life back again, and again
Fly on, fly on. Fly on my friend
Go on, live again. Love again.

Live Chat Reminder

Hey fans! Love the Yankees and are looking for a good way to follow along with the game during the work day? Well come on over to Fack Youk at 1:00 and take part in our live chat! We'll be pulling in the Twitter feeds from some the local beat reporters and adding our own snarky commentary and the occasional screen grab as well.

Stop by and destroy your productivity at work!

Nine More Runs, One More Win

[Photos]

One of the major reasons that the Yankees are a blistering 27-10 since the All-Star Break is that when they've been knocked down, they haven't stayed on the mat for very long. They lost multiple games in a row only twice during that stretch and it seems as though they've been much more likely to answer a score by an opponent with one of their own in the next half of the inning. After losing a tough game on Tuesday night, they Yanks roared back, starting in the second inning with a three run homer by Jorge Posada.

Posada also helped guide Andy Pettitte through the potent Rangers line up with relative ease after escaping a first inning jam via a Pudge Rodriguez double play. Former Red Sox farmhand David Murphy drove in the only two Rangers runs on the night, one on a double in the fifth inning and the other on a two out, solo shot off of Pettitte in the 7th. That homer was the first in six starts for Pettitte, a factor which has certainly contributed to his impressive recent performances.

After the homer by Murphy, Andy settled down and got Elvis Andrus swinging for his 7th K of the night and the offense backed him up with a 5 run rally in the bottom half of the inning, complete with a bunt base hit by Melky Cabrera and an RBI double by Nick Swisher. Apparently it was the batting order that was the problem on Tuesday.

The one unfortunate development in this game for the Yanks was that Posada had to be taken out in the 8th inning after being hit with a foul ball on his left ring finger. X-Rays were negative and he's day to day. Since tomorrow's game is a matinee (live chat, y'all!) he was scheduled for a rest anyway.

After the game, Pettitte had some compliments for his nicked up teammate, saying "Jorgie called a great game". Whether it was intended to quiet the questioning of Posada's game-calling abilities that cropped up after Saturday's drubbing in Boston or not, it was a true statement. Or at least that's how it sounded after Pettitte allowed 8 baserunners in 7 innings, struck out 7 and allowed two runs. The only two hits for extra bases went to Murphy. It was plenty good enough for the win as the offense put up 9 runs once again, but this time in a winning effort.

Game 126: I Shall Return

After a brief an unexpected absence yesterday, I've made my return to Fack Youk. Sorry for the lack of content yesterday. Knowing Jay wasn't going to be around, I had a few things I had intended to post over the course of the day, but life had other plans for me. I hope you Fackers found other ways to kill time over the course of your work day.

Andy Pettitte returns to the mound tonight after a disappointing start in Boston last Friday. While he did record the win, Pettitte pitched poorly despite being handed a 12-1 lead. I'm all for challenging hitters a bit more when playing with lead that large, but there's a fine line between challenging hitters and getting sloppy with a big lead. I'm not suggesting Pettitte intentionally brought the Sox back into the game, but any start that necessitates two innings of "relief" from Sergio Mitre cannot be considered a success. That said, it was the first remotely poor start Pettitte has had since the All-Star Break. Perhaps he was due for a clunker, and there's no better night to have one of those than when your offense puts up twenty runs.

Even with the poor start last Friday, Pettitte is 2-1 with a 2.82 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, and .233/.282/.310 batting line since the All-Star Break. Last Friday might have been a cheap win for him, but he's had four tough luck no decisions in that span. Pettitte has faced the Rangers once previously this season, taking the loss against Bizarro Kramer on June 3rd, giving up four runs and thirteen baserunners in five innings of work.

Texas counters with rookie southpaw Derek Holland. Holland got touched up by the Yanks on May 27th, to the tune of ten hits and five earned runs in five innings of work. He made a relief appearance at the Stadium on June 2nd, and they got him for two more runs in an inning and a third. He's surrendered three Yankee home runs in 6.1 IP. He's been excellent in four of his last five starts, going 4-1 with a 1.82 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, and .189/.238/.303 batting line. I'm hoping that the recent Holland disappears tonight and the one who faced the Yankees earlier this year returns.

Johnny Damon gets the night off, with Jerry Hairston Jr. getting the start in left field. Nick Swisher slides up the two spot in the order. Maybe he'll have the opportunity to show his bunting prowess again tonight.

Gov't Mule bassist and founding member Allen Woody died nine years ago today. We've featured the band twice already this month, including just last Saturday when Jay chose "On the Banks of the Deep End" for the preview. That song was Warren Haynes' tribute to his fallen bandmate. In the years since Woody's death, Gov't Mule reached great heights, now ranking amongst the upper echelon of the "jamband" scene. In a sick way, Woody's passing is partially responsible for that. The void left by his death led to the high profile Deep End projects, which saw the band play with a host of music's top bassists. In the aftermath of Woody's death, Warren Haynes made a return to the Allman Brothers Band - where he and Woody had first played together more than a decade earlier - and also played a three year stint with Phil Lesh. These things greatly raised the exposure level of Haynes, and by extension, Gov't Mule. Mule was an outstanding band in Woody's days, but we'll never how the band's future would have played out had he not met an untimely end.

Here's a classic Gov't Mule performance from the Allen Woody era. Dose was certainly the best Mule album from Woody's time with the band, and is arguably still the best that Mule has put out. The album's closer is the beautiful "I Shall Return". I hope Pettite returns to form and the Yankees return to the win column tonight.



But I shall return, though I'm losing myself.
I shall return.

The Big Tease

[Image via]

Looking at the big picture, losing to the Rangers wasn't the worst thing for the Yanks. It kept them 1.5 games in back of the Red Sox in the Wild Card standings (1 in the loss column), while the Yanks maintained a 6 game lead in the division. If you had to pick a team to drop a game to, it would have to be the one most likely to knock the Sawx out of a postseason berth.

That said, this was an especially tough defeat to swallow. Joba Chamberlain was staked to a 4 run lead in the first inning, but gave it back and then some during the course of a couple two out, no one on rallies by the Rangers in the second and fourth innings. Once again, Joba proved incapable of being efficient with his pitch count, even with a big lead, and had to be relieved of his duties after a 5 run fourth inning which ran his total up to 96 pitches. It was a prototypical "Bad Joba" outing which is sure to raise questions about the amount of rest he was pitching on and the Yanks' plan for him going forward. Brace yourselves.

Even more heartbreaking was the fact that, despite trailing by 5 runs entering the 9th inning, the Yankees had the tying run on second base with no one out and failed to score due EXCLUSIVELY in part to a FUCKING TERRIBLE DECISION highly questionable move by Joe Girardi. I hated the move when Nick Swisher showed bunt on the first pitch but took it for a ball and wholly despised it with every fiber of my being when he popped it out to Michael Young at third base on his second attempt. I just can't fuc... Nevermind. We'll revisit this subject tomorrow.

Perhaps we should be happy that the Yanks even made this one interesting with the surge in the 9th. Or perhaps, as the Smokey Robinson and the Miracles once said, "a taste of honey is worse than none at all".

Game 125: Back To The Family

Sorry for the unannounced absence today, folks. I spent all day out of cell phone reception at my uncle's workshop up north working on a piece of furniture for my sister's apartment. Matt had a sudden and much more important family matter to attend to, which in tandem explain the lack of posting here.

If you stop by here often, I think you'll agree that we do a pretty good job of providing a steady stream of content, but today life and family intervened. You know how it goes.

On to the game...

Today Joba Chamberlain gets back on the hill after a 9 days of rest. Following three straight outings lasting longer than 6 2/3 innings and allowing one or no runs, none of Joba's last three starts have made it into the 7th inning and he's given up 4 runs in each.

For the Rangers, Kevin Millwood gets the ball. Despite only achieving a 9-8 record on a pretty good team, Millwood is having one of the better seasons of his career. He's averaging over 6 1/3 IP per start, fewer than one hit per inning and has a 3.48 ERA. The Yanks faced him earlier this year, getting three runs out of him before he hit the showers in the sixth.

The Yanks are back home, Joba's back in action and I've gotta get back and assemble the aforementioned item at my sister's place. With any luck, we'll be back at full strength tomorrow.

Enjoy the game.

My telephone wakes me in the morning,
Have to get up to answer the call.
So I think I'll go back to the family,
Where no one can ring me at all.

Living this life has its problems,
So I think that I'll give it a break.
Oh, I'm going back to the family,
Cause I've had about all I can take.