These Aren't The Washington Generals

The Nationals are a bad team. I think we can all agree on that. Being 30 games under .500 at this point in the season puts them on pace to lose roughly 120 games. That is mind-bogginglingly awful. But it doesn't mean that anything less than a sweep against them is a disgrace.

Beat writers don't play the "sweep or die" card very often, but they have in spades for this series.

Ken Davidoff:

Big-picture usually dominates this column. No game, or series, exists in a vacuum - at least, before September. But this week at Yankee Stadium, we're tossing the big picture in the garbage.

The Nationals are so horrible that a Yankees loss to them is virtually inexcusable.

Joel Sherman:

I try hard never to talk about must wins unless games truly are must wins or to apply weighty proportions to games in June. However, I will say this: The Yankees can't just win a series against Washington starting tomorrow. Anything less than a sweep is abject failure.

Pete Abe:

It’s tough to say the Yankees need to sweep. The Nats do figure to show up, after all. But winning two out of three won’t be satisfactory against this team.

In 21 series this year, the Nationals have "only" been swept seven times. Not doing something that only one out of three teams that has faced them this year have been able to do would be an "abject failure"? Remember when the Pirates top prospects lost to Manatee Community College? It's still baseball, guys. I understand the temptation to demand a sweep, but as last night goes to show, it only takes one bad pitch (especially in the New Yankee Stadium) to turn a game around.

After last night's loss, the Nationals' record is 16-46. A wining percentage of .258 is a lot closer to .333 (1-2) than it is to .000 (0-3). As you might expect is the case with any historically terrible team, their Pythagorean record (23-39, .370) indicates that they have been somewhat unlucky in their run distribution, meaning that their current wining percentage sells them a little short.

Tonight the Nats send their best pitcher, lefty John Lannan to face Chien Ming Wang. Even if Wang turns in by far his best performance of the year, the Yanks could very easily lose.

If the Yankees won two out of every three games, they would finish with 108 wins. Taking two out of three in this series is not a failure... it would improve their winning percentage on the year. Let's not get ahead of ourselves. As CC said after the he notched his sixth win of the season last night, "This is the big leagues, you can't take anyone lightly."

Big Innings

Last night, as the runs started to pile up in the second inning, I'm pretty sure all Yankee fans were thinking essentially the same thing, "Here we go again". There was a mix of bad luck, bad pitching, bad defense, and lack of focus. I said bad luck first because Luke Scott's single to lead off the inning only got through because Cano was shifted towards first. Teixeira narrowly missed two balls hit at him. Aubrey Huff's homer was a good breaking ball at his shoelaces that he somehow awkwardly jerked over the right field scoreboard.

Regardless of how these big innings are coming to be, this is becoming a trend for this team. The Yankees have been outscored 167-190 this year and a major part of that is the fact that they have gotten tagged for a ton of train wreck innings, but have largely been unable to return the favor.

The Yanks have been outscored 81-37 in these sitauations, more than making up for their negative run differential.

What is causing this? I've identified some contributing factors:

• Chien Ming Wang - Wang is responsible for four of these innings, which account for 22 runs. In relief of Wang against the Indians, Anthony Claggett allowed 6 more earned runs, bringing that total to 28.
  
  
• Situational Hitting - With runners in scoring position, opponents are hitting .321, which is better than any team in the MLB. By contrast, the Yanks are hitting .245, 20th in the league. With two outs and RISP, the Yankees are at .238 with a .795 OPS, while allowing .289 & .904 to the opposition.
  
  
• Walks - Yankee relievers are walking 4.5 men per nine innings pitched (starters 3.7), even though Mariano Rivera has pitched 11 innings and has given up none. Take Mo out of the equation and the average jumps to 5.1. The biggest culprits are Jose Veras and Edwar Ramirez, who have pitched a combined 30 innings and walked 22. The bullpen is striking out almost one guy an inning, but it's not enough to neutralize all the walks.
  
  
• + Hits - As a team they are also allowing more than a hit per inning, amounting to a WHIP of 1.526, fourth worst in the MLB. More baserunners prolong innings, and set the table for...
  
  
• Home Runs - Pinstriped pitchers have allowed 43 long balls this year, second only to the Orioles with 49. Their Home Run/Fly Ball ratio is 10.6%, tied with the O's for the worst in the AL by a full two percent. Camden Yards is a notorious bandbox and it's certainly starting to look like the New Stadium is as well. I've been reluctant to jump on this bandwagon, but they have allowed four more dingers at home in four fewer games (1.84 per game to 1.17). Our buddy Simon recently took a closer look at some of the cheap homers from Thursday's game. Where there is smoke, there is fire.

Some of those factors project to improve over time. Chien Ming Wang has already taken a little "injury" hiatus. He will be back at some point and there's pretty much no chance he will be as bad as he was to begin the season. And if he is, he won't be around for long. Situational hitting, especially disparities that drastic, should regress to the mean as well.

However, the bullpen is starting to become a serious problem. I've been critical of Girardi's handling of it so far, saying he has been mixing and matching too much. The stats bear this out. The Yankees are second in the AL only to the Rays is number of appearances by pitchers totalling less than three outs, with 33. The difference is that the Rays have match-up specialists like Brian Shouse, and J.P. Howell who can, you know, actually get guys out. Their bullpen ERA is also over a run and a half lower, so whatever Joe Maddon is doing seems to be working. It's not all Girardi's fault, obviously, the pitchers should be doing a better job.

Right now, the Yankees have the worst ERA in baseball and getting A-Rod back isn't going to help that either.

Ten Spot

It's not the most efficient way to allocate 10 runs, but that feels pretty damn good, doesn't it?