Game 85 Recap

[Data via FG]

Highlights:

• In the wake of his victory in the Final Vote and resulting selection to the All-Star team, Nick Swisher had another big night, going 4-4 (two doubles) and a walk in addition to making a nice sliding catch in the 5th. One of those two-baggers set the table for A-Rod's game-winning hit in the ninth as it put runners on second and third with one out.
  
  
• Andy Pettitte was brilliant yet again, striking out nine in eight innings and allowing just one run. His only real rough patch came in the 6th. He gave up two straight singles to begin the frame and Ichiro dropped a bunt right in front of the plate. Pettitte fielded it cleanly but sailed the throw wide of first, allowing a run to score and the runners to move to second and third.
  
  There was still no one out at this point and it looked likely that the game would be blown wide open. However, Pettitte retired Chone Figgins, intentionally walked Franklin Gutierrez and then proceeded to strike out Russell Braynan and Jose Lopez to wriggle out of the jam with minimal damage.
  
  
• The Yanks put runners on first and second with no one out in the 8th on a walk by A-Rod and a single by Robby Cano. Jason Vargas uncorked a wild pitch and A-Rod moved to third, but Cano didn't take the opportunity to advance to second, possibly influenced by the batter, Jorge Posada initially gesturing for the runners to stay put. As it turns out, Posada grounded into a double play, which scored the run but shut down a further rally. It was a big mistake at the time, regardless of whose fault it was, but thankfully the Yanks got away with it when they got to Mariners' closer David Aardsma for the second time in just over a week.

Not In The Highlights:

• In the first inning, Ichrio was attempting to catch a pop up off the bat of Mark Texieira and bumped into a "fan", who was brushing her hair and proceeded to absolutely freak out and immediately text everyone she knows, "OMGOMGOMGOMGOMG ICHIRO LIKE TOUCHED ME!!!11!1!!!////".
  
  
• Seattle fans, apparently still bitter over him leaving the team ten fucking years ago, threw fake money at Alex Rodriguez when he game to bat in the 8th inning.
  
  
• The Yankees put at least one man on base in every inning last night, but didn't score until the 8th. Particularly frustrating were 1st (1st & 2nd, no outs) and 4th (1st & 2nd, one out). They were 1-11 with runners in scoring position and left 12 men on base.
  
  
• Brett Gardner was 0-4 with three strikeouts, but he did gun down Ichiro at third base in the first inning.
  
  
• Mark Teixeira had a pretty terrible night, hurting the Yanks chances of winning by 38%. he grounded into a double play in the first, and failed to get the runner in from third in the ninth when he popped out to the catcher. Luckily A-Rod was there to pick him up with a huge two out hit.

Up Next:

• Yet another late start as Phil Hughes takes on Cliff Lee.

Wrapping Up The Weekend

Good morning, Fackers. After Friday night's game, it really seemed as if the Yankees had righted the ship. Javier Vazquez came up with a terrific performance and covered up the offense's difficulties cashing in all the baserunners they had accumulated. A narrow 2-1 victory seemed like it was a step towards taking the first installment of the 2010 Subway Series and an escape from the malaise that they had spent the last two weeks in. To boot, both the Red Sox and Rays had lost against the Phillies and Astros, respectively.

However, Saturday and Sunday did not go according to that plan. The Mets got excellent performances from Mike Pelfrey and Johan Santana and although their bullpen gave the Yankees a glimmer of hope in the late innings, the final two games of the series went to the team from Queens.

Outside of the two pitchers that picked up wins against the Bombers, the Mets rotation is in a state of disarray. Oliver Perez has been moved to the bullpen due to his ineffectiveness while John Maine and Jon Niese are both sidelined with injuries. It just so happened that the Yanks drew both of the Mets healthy and effective starters in a three game series and were on the losing end of two strong performances. It just seems like that's the way things are going for the Yanks as of late.

The Bombers have now dropped five of their last seven games and ten of the last 15. Even the excitement surrounding weekend's most notable bright spot, Vazquez, has to be tempered because he had to be taken from the game with an injury to his right index finger that he got while attempting to lay down a bunt. The Yankees pushed his bullpen session back until Tuesday and he is expected to make his regularly scheduled start against the Twins on Thursday. Still, there should be concern that the injury could affect his stuff when he takes the mound again.

While the Yankees were getting beaten by the Mets, the Red Sox and Rays both salvaged the last two games of their respective series, moving Tampa six games ahead of the Yankees and Boston just two and a half games back. Down in Philadelphia, the Sawx got eight shutout innings both from Daisuke Matsuzaka and Tim Wakefield in the final two games of the series to eek out a victory. The Rays did what they should have and came up with consecutive victories of 4-2 and 10-6 against the Astros.

No story of the Yankees current struggles would be complete without talking about the injuries they've suffered and for a while the bullpen was blowing every lead they got their hands on, but over the past week, their starting pitching has been the real culprit. The last time through the rotation, Burnett, Hughes, Pettitte and Sabathia have combined to give up 22 runs in 22 1/3 innings pitched.

Couple that with the fact that the Yanks are a combined 19-76 (.250) with runners in scoring position over the last seven games and went the entire series in Flushing without hitting a home run and you've got a recipe for a tough stretch of baseball.

As a frame of reference, the Yankees are still tied with the Twins for the second best record in the American League and have as many wins as any team in the NL, a testament mostly to how well they were playing early in the season. But between the bullpen implosions, the constant flow of injuries, the RISP struggles and the late inning comeback teases the last 15 games have been really tough to watch. Luckily, we know that none of those problems are going to last forever. It's just hard to see the light at the end of the tunnel right now.

Today is the team's first scheduled off day in two and a half weeks and hopefully they can collect themselves before they head out to Minnesota for yet another tough series against the Twins.

24 Days Until Spring Training: Robinson Cano

Robinson Cano isn't young for a baseball player anymore. He seems like a bit of a fledgling in comparison to the rest of the established stars on the Yankees but he turned 27 last October and is now entering his physical prime. Cano is slated to make $9M in 2010, so he is becoming less of an automatic bargain and more of a good value contingent on good performance.

With the departures of Melky Cabrera and Chein-Ming Wang this offseason, Cano alone now bridges the gap of home grown talent between the old guard of Jeter, Rivera, Posada and Pettitte and the newer generation of Joba Chamberlain, Phil Hughes and Brett Gardner. He's the only outstanding hitting prospect the Yankees have developed and retained in recent years and provides elite production at an important defensive position.

Cano's abilities at second base are tough to quantify, as Joe from River Ave. Blue pointed out before last season began. He possesses the ability to make plays on balls that are hit outside of his zone, but is also prone to making sloppy mistakes on relatively easy opportunities. UZR rated Cano as slightly below average last season (-5.2) which is close to his career norm. Fortunately, Robby hits more than enough to make up for any deficiencies he might have in the field.

After a terrible year at the plate in 2008, Cano rebounded last season with a .370 wOBA, the second best mark of his career. He set new career highs in home runs (25), doubles (48) and ISO (.199) without adversely affecting his batting average (.320). He batted significantly better at Yankee Stadium than on the road, but hit a fairly balanced 14 of his homers in the Bronx.

Cano's only real flaw as a hitter is his lack of patience, an attribute which is exacerbated by the fact that he is near the top of the league in contact percentage - both inside and outside of the strike zone. He made contact with 77% of offerings outside of the zone in 2009, a number which has increased every year he's been in the league. The percentage of pitches out of the zone he offers at has remained close to 30%, meaning that he's either getting more selective, getting better at putting the bat on the ball or some combination of the two.

Robby is also near the top of the league in first strike percentage, despite the fact that he only swings at the first pitch of the at bat 34% of the time. It's easy to understand why Cano or the coaching staff might take this tact - he's already near the bottom of the league in pitches seen per plate appearance - but it appears that pitchers are a little too comfortable grooving a strike in there and putting Cano in an unfavorable count. Clearly opposing hurlers are trying to exploit this tendency and Cano could benefit by being more aggressive on the first pitch.

As has been the case throughout his career, Cano struggled with runners in scoring position in 2009. Mike from River Ave. Blues identified BABIP as a major culprit for the discrepancy but clearly there is something in his approach that keeps him from racking up more RBIs. Similarly, Cano didn't fare very well in the 2009 postseason either, hitting a paltry .193/.266/.281 surpassed in futility on the Yankees only by Nick Swisher. But all's well that ends well.

Cano is probably my favorite Yankee. During a time when the farm system wasn't turning out many prospects, Robby emerged to fill a position that the Yankees have had very few stars at over the course of their history. He has plenty of flaws as a player, some of which we didn't even discuss, but those make Cano who he is.

Round 2: Damon v. Abreu

Yesterday's hot topic around here, Bobby Abreu just got offered a nice new deal with the Angels.

The Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim offered Bobby Abreu a two-year extension worth about $16MM, according to SI.com's Jon Heyman (via Twitter).

As he did before this year, ol' Bobby is shooting for the stars and looking for a better deal. There's no real harm in that since he didn't sign with the Angels until mid-February this year and he has every right to find another team that's willing to pay him more than that.

Abreu is a really good hitter who would be an asset if placed in any lineup in the history of the game and he's coming off a pretty good year. But he'll be 36 years old when next season starts. He already has limited ability as a corner outfielder and will eventually transition into a part-time DH role.

Does that scenario sound familiar? That's right folks, Johnny Damon is in a nearly identical position.

Granted, the most likely scenario is that both guys stay where they are at, but let's assume the Yankees could have either of them for 2 years at $10M per. It might be a bit much, but with that offer already sitting out there for Abreu, we know it's not going to be much less.

Like we did yesterday with Nick Swisher and Abreu, let's look at the stats.

Damon batted in the two hole almost exclusively this year, while Abreu primarily hit third. This explains some of the gap in RBI, but not as well as Abreu's .354/.448/.475 line with RISP. That's great and all, but it's hardly sustainable.

On the same note, Damon set a career high for HRs this year and that is likely to regress to the mean next year as well. If Abreu were to get half of his plate appearances in Yankee Stadium in 2010, there's a pretty good chance his totals would increase, bringing the two a bit closer together.

The stolen base edge goes to Abreu, but Damon obviously could have run more and a good portion of the difference has to be the product of the strategy of the teams they play for. Defense isn't going to matter as much in the role that the Yankees are looking for since it will involve a good amount of games in the DH slot but Damon was completely terrible this year, and I don't think we can chalk off of it up to his eye issues. Although subjectively, I don't think there's any way he's that much worse than Abreu.

We're looking at two pretty similar players. Both have been extremely fortunate with their health over the years and remain productive at an advanced age. Both are risky investments and there's a fair chance that two years from now, one will look better than the other or both will look pretty bad. But based on what we know now, who ya got?

Realistically, Damon is far more likely to stick around due to real world factors like their families and such, but on paper a good case could be made for either of these guys. Think of what Abreu could do for the Yankees' approach at the plate!

K Is For Kubel

At the risk of not giving the Twins proper credit for their remarkable late season comeback, they were a relatively weak playoff team. The won baseball's poorest division, and needed an extra game to do so. Three clubs (Texas, Florida, and San Francisco) sit at home this post-season despite having better records than Minnesota. Atlanta had the same 162 game record as the Twins, while Seattle, Tampa Bay, and the Cubs - three teams never even considered contenders down the stretch - all finished within three games of the Twins' 162 game record.

None of which takes away from the fact that had a couple breaks gone the other way, this series could still be going, and could be going with Twins in the driver's seat (more on that later this week). But the point is that the Twins were a weak division champion, and in this instance the Yankees actually benefited from the pointless rule that the supposedly weak Wild Card team cannot play its own Division Champion in the DS.

That said, the Twins had a razor thin margin for error heading into the series. Their starting pitching was average at best and they were playing what amounted to replacement level offensive players at as many as five spots in their line up. What the Twins had on their side was the law of averages and a short series (again more on that later), momentum (which doesn't matter nearly as much as sports writers lead us to believe), and a heart of the order that's as good as any other in the league. In order to win the series the Twins needed to catch some breaks (so much for that Phil Cuzzi), do the "little things" well (ditto Gomez and Punto), and get production from their three big bats.

They did get production from Joe Mauer (.417/.500/.500 in 14 PA) and Michael Cuddyer (.429/.429/.429 in 14 PA), but the third man in that triumvirate, Jason Kubel, was ice cold. For the series, Kubel went 1 for 14 with no walks and nine strikeouts. After fanning twice in Game One, he took the Golden Sombrero in Game Two before getting a base hit off Damaso Marte in the 11th, then followed that with a Silver Sombrero last night. Over the course of the series he went 0 for 2 with RISP and left seven runners on base. Even when he seemingly caught a break - like when Robinson Cano missed his liner in the fifth last night - bad luck caught up with him, as the ball went straight to Nick Swisher in right, allowing him to force Cuddyer, who had rightly retreated towards first, at second base.

The nature of baseball is such that one player truly can't win or lose a series on his own. Just as Alex Rodriguez wasn't solely responsible for the 2004 ALCS or the ALDS in 2005, 2006, and 2007, Jason Kubel isn't entirely at fault for the Twins getting swept. A bad three game stretch doesn't make him a post-season choke artist either. But his failure to produce in this series is a huge contributing factor to the Twins' ouster given how reliant their club was on those three middle of the order bats.

Game 137: What Really Goes On

The Yankees will take the field in Toronto today looking to cap off a road trip which they've begun 5-1. They rebounded from that one loss nicely yesterday after facing Roy Halladay on Friday night, although they struggled mightily to drive home the runners they put on base.

The Yanks lead the AL in on-base percentage, slugging percentage, home runs, RBIs and runs scored and are second in batting average behind the Angels. Surprisingly, they are also second in BA w/RISP (also behind the Angels) although it seems like games similar to the one last night in which they can't drive in runs have been all too common this year. This might go back to our sushi theory which states that bad experiences are far more memorable than good ones, tainting your overall recollection.

The Yanks will remember Brain Tallet, the converted reliever with the trailer park 'stache they've faced twice this year as a starter and once in relief. He's pitched pretty well in both of his starts against the Yanks, going 6 innings each time and giving up two runs in May and three in July. Tallet has been in and out of the rotation this year, being asked to start in place of some injured Jays early in the year and sent back to the bullpen when they called up Marc Rzepczynski. He returned to the starting role in the second half of a double header on Tuesday and looks to be back until the end of the season since they Jays have shut Rzepczynski down for the season.

Coming off his best start as a Yankee, Sergio Mitre takes the hill today. Mitre cruised through 6 1/3 efficient, scoreless innings against the White Sox his last time out before being hit in the forearm by a line drive. The Yanks gave him a little extra time off in between starts, but the forearm shouldn't be a factor this time out. If he morphs back into his very hittable self, it won't be because of that.

The Yanks have a good chance to win the series against the Jays, complete the road trip at 6-1 and extend their record to 6-2 when Mitre starts if he just puts together something in between his last excellent outing and everything else he's done this year. Whatever happens, we'll have a better sense of who Sergio Mitre really is after today.

Can you explain that? I doubt that very highly,
We got jewels and mo' and the life is type rowdy,
Everybody lookin' shitty like a toe down committee,
Let's make these institutions, body slam for the smitties,
I got girls with plenty tails, smarts and big titties,
And they all stressin' me, yo, really?

Battle Of The Bullpens Ends In KO

Going into last night, we knew it wasn't going to be a pitcher's duel. A game with last second spot starter facing a guy making his third Major League start just one year off of Tommy John Surgery (who wasn't all that great to begin with) had "slugfest" written all over it. D.J. Carrasco and Sergio Mitre didn't waste any time delaying the inevitable.

The Yanks went up 3-0 in the first but Mitre had coughed up the lead before he recorded his fifth out of the game. He allowed another run in the third and was summarily yanked, having thrown 75 pitches in three innings and giving up 5 runs on 7 hits. Carrasco was only a little bit better, blowing a lead of his own in the fourth and finishing with a line of 4.0IP, 9H, 5R.

With the starters out of the picture, it became a battle of the bullpens, one which the ChiSox won by 7th inning KO. David Robertson pitched fairly well, going two innings and giving up one run, and then handed the ball to Alfredo Aceves to start the sixth.

Alf worked a scoreless frame but gave up a walk and a single to start the 7th. Johnny Damon temporarily stemmed the tide by making a spectacular catch on a liner by Carlos Quentin, which carried him into the wall, head/shoulder first. On TV, it looked like Damon had lost the ball, but in fact it was the interlocking NY logo his hat which had been forcefully ejected from his head.

Undeterred, Damon leaped to his feet and made a strong throw back to the infield, holding the runners. Quentin couldn't believe it, but he still had an excellent night, with a double, a deep homer off of Mitre, 2RBIs and a walk.

Aceves got Mark Kotsay to fly out for the second out of the inning, but the thread by which he has hanging snapped shortly thereafter. He gave up a walk and two singles all in a row, four runs came to the plate and he was lifted from the game before he got another out.

It's hard to tell what to make of Alf at the moment. On one hand, you have the news of his sore shoulder, an increasing FB%, and his back to back awful performances. On the other, he was just one out away from getting out of both of the outings without giving up a run.

The Yanks, meanwhile, were held scoreless by the Sox pen over the final five innings. The fact that they were 2 for 10 with runners in scoring position probably didn't help.

It's was a poor time to lose a game in this fashion. Now everyone can say the Yankees should have picked up a starter at the deadline. But Mitre's poor showing doesn't mean the Yanks should have made a deal any more than a solid performance would have meant they were right to stand pat. It's one game. More on his later.

On the bright side, it's Saturday!

An Easy Flight Home

A plane ride from Cleveland to New York City takes about an hour and fifteen minutes in the air. Coming off a 5-2 road trip after a confidence-inspiring victory like the one last night will probably make it seem even shorter.

The Yankees hit the ground running in the first inning, as Jeter and Teixeira both extended their hitting streaks, to 15 and 14 games, respectively. With one out and men on first and second, A-Rod flew out to center and Jorge Posada struck out swinging to kick start a frustrating night with men in scoring position. Going 3-16 w/RISP isn't typically a recipe for success, but the Yankees overcame those shortcomings, mostly on the back of Joba Chamberlain.

The eight innings he tossed tonight marked Joba's longest outing as a professional. What he lacked in dominance (only 5Ks) he made up for in efficiency (106 pitches). In addition to inducing 12 groundballs he certainly made the highlight reel in the fifth inning.

Joba allowed a walk and a single to start the frame, and had men on first and second with no one out. Kelly Shoppach came to the plate and popped a bunt in the air down the left foul line. Joba charged the ball and made as spectacular of a catch as you will see made by a pitcher. He laid out with full extension and snatched the ball just before it hit the ground, and at the behest of Jorge Posada, took to his feet and double Ryan Garko off of second base.

It didn't just look good on film. If that ball had fallen in, the Indians would have had the bases loaded with no one out. Instead, they had a runner on first with two outs. Although it's not highlighted on this chart, you can figure out the damage that play did to the Indians' chances at victory (FanGraphs does't mark defensive plays on their WPA charts). With the next batter, Asdrubal Cabrera up, Jamey Carroll tried to steal second but was nabbed after a correct guess on a pitch out and the threat was deterred.

The Yankees mounted their own threat in th top of the 6th on the strength of three walks from Jeremy Sowers. Eric Wedge went to the mound and Sowers' night was over after 85 pitches, as he was replaced in favor of Eric Aquino. Jeter, Swisher, Teixeira packed the bases with no one out as A-Rod stood at the plate. As it seemingly so often does in big spots, Alex got behind 0-2.

In 97 plate appearances entering last night's game A-Rod had been in two strike counts in 41 of them. Four of his home runs have come with two strikes and he is well above league average, with a 213 sOPS+ (OPS in comparison to league average with two strikes), even with a .190 BABIP in those spots. However, this time he was called out looking on a back-up slider up and in. One out. Jorge Posada chopped out to second. Two down. Robby Cano flew out to left. Inning over.

At this point, the score was still tied 1-1 and any coherent observer was left to wonder if the Yankees had squandered their chance to bust the game open.

Joba sat the Indians down in order in the bottom of the inning and the Yanks picked up right where they left off in the seventh. Acquino took his turn walking the bases loaded with one out, which brought up the slumping Nick Swisher. But for all of the confidence he inspired early in the season, he certainly wouldn't be the consensus choice among Yankee fans to be up in a big spot at the moment. Swish stepped up and sliced a near home run into the left field corner, driving in two.

Our old pal Luis Vizciano was brought into face A-Rod. The count quickly fell to 0-2 again, but Alex slipped a single past Asdrubal Cabrera and knocked in two runners of his own. The score would end 5-2 with Cleveland getting one back in the bottom of the 7th on an RBI ground out.

Joba allowed only four hits and two walks before handing the ball to Mo in the ninth. What now, Chris Shearn?

OPS w/RISP

Over at Circling the Bases, Matthew Pouliot's stat of the day yesterday was team's OPS with runners in scoring position. Overall, the Yankees ranked 18th, but in realtion to the total OPS, they had the third largest lag in the league with .53, behind only the Diamondbacks and the Nationals (those numbers have obviously changed as of today).

I think as fans, we have all at a certain point been frustrated with the Yankees' recent inabilty to get "clutch" hits and drive runners home, so I decided to try and get some historical perspective on this. 

Using Baseball-Reference, I took it all the way back to 1989 and charted the team's OPS, OPS w/runners in scoring position and winning percentage.

Here are a few things that jumped out:

• Between 1989 and 2007, there were only three years in which the team's OPS w/RISP was lower than the team's overall OPS. However, that was the case last year and is so far this season as well. Is this more than a small sample size fluke? Is it a trend developing? 
  
  
• Total OPS has a fairly strong correlation to winning percentage, with the expection of this year. 
  
  
• Take a look at the increase in total OPS from 89-94. Sure, the team was getting better winning percentage-wise, but can you think of another thing that was starting to happen throughout baseball at that time?  
  
  
• Interestingly, the 2009 Yanks have almost the exact same OPS as the 1998 team (.817 to .818), however in '98 that number with runners in scoring position was .860 compared with .793 this year.
  
  
• That .860 figure is not the highest on the list. That would be the .862 belonging to the 2002 Yankees, who scored almost 100 fewer runs that the '99 team due to a lower total OPS. 

Any other observations? 

Game Two: Baltimorons, Mascot Taunting & A Late Rally

See what you're missing Teix?!?!! Don't you wish you signed in Baltimore for $40M less than the Yankees offered so you could play in front of these great fans who don't even fucking show up to the second game of the season? Hey Baltimorons, you just lost your "Make Fun Of Rays Fans" card.

I'm pretty sure I know what side of the Erik Bedard trade I'd take at this point.

Relax guys, this was just a clever ploy by Wang to to take the focus off of CC Sabathia.

[New Slogan] "Heineken: It's Not Just The Shitty Light Beer Brands Who Think You Are An Idiot."

And what would be the point of stocking your giant walk-in cooler with one type of beer?

Fail
Fail
Fail

If hypothetical Team A went 3/19 with runners in scoring position in two simulated games, Team A theoretically wouldn't deserve to win those games.

The fact that they let a fucking mascot dance around on top of the dugout at Camden Yards really negates some of that "Retro Ballpark" clout.

Funny, I don't think we'll see headlines in the Rags tomorrow about how the demise of Derek Jeter was greatly exaggerated. Like actual knee-jerk reactions, the ones that appear in print only go in one direction.

If there is one bright spot in this unfortunate event, it's that Teixeira didn't end the game and head into tomorrow 0-9.

Congrats on your first major league victory, Koji Uehara. I'll check back in July when you are 3-6 with a 5.23 ERA.

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Somehow, this defeat is a little easier to swallow for me than yesterday's, although it should technically be twice as hard to, right? Anyone else?