Game 27: Buenas Tardes Amigo

Buenas tardes Fackers, y feliz Cinco de Mayo. Today marks the 148th anniversary of the Battle of Puebla, more popularly known as Cinco de Mayo, during which the Mexican Army improbably defeated the French. The Yankees, who feature two of the eleven Mexican-born players currently in the Major Leagues, will celebrate with a getaway day matinee, saying good afternoon to the Orioles as they wrap up their three game set.

Andy Pettitte looks to continue his strong start to the 2010 season and give the Yankees the sweep. Through five starts, Pettitte stands at 3-0, with a 2.12 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP. He is still outperforming both his FIP (3.07) and xFIP (4.01) by a good margin, thanks in large part to a high strand rate (82.9%) and a low BABIP (.276). The good news is, he's been so successful not just because of those somewhat lucky numbers, but because his walks are low and he's allowed just a single home run in 34 IP. Further, if Pettitte's ERA matched his FIP or even his xFIP, no one would be complaining about it at this point.

Baltimore is an old friend to Pettitte. He's has made 38 starts and 2 relief appearances against the Orioles in his 16 year career. He's 26-6 with a 3.60 ERA against them. Clearly there are several good starts mixed in there, but perhaps none better than Pettitte's second most recent against the O's. Last August 31st, Pettitte was perfect at Camden Yards through six and two thirds, finishing the night with 8 IP, 2 H, 1 R, 0 BB, and 8 K. Pettitte enjoyed great success against Baltimore in three starts last year, posting a 2.21 ERA, a 0.89 WHIP, and striking out 21 against just 5 walks in 20.1 IP.

For the Orioles, David Hernandez will get the ball. Hernandez faced the Yankees twice as a rookie last year. On July 20th, he held them to six baserunners and a single run over six innings of work, but wasn't around for the decision by the time Hideki Matsui's home run gave the Yankees yet another walkoff win. He wasn't quite so lucky on September 1st, as the Yankees touched him up for five runs in as many innings while working six walks. If there was any silver lining, it was that Hernandez held them to just four hits and struck out seven.

After a poor 2009, Hernandez has made modest improvements through the first five starts of his sophomore campaign. Though winless, his ERA is a respectable 4.55, just about in line with his 4.65 FIP. However, he's allowing far too many baserunners, walking an unsightly 4.9 per nine, and yielding a hit per inning. He can't blame the hits on bad luck, as his BABIP of .291 is better than league average, and his xFIP of 5.98 suggests that things could have been worse for him thus far. If he can't keep the walks under control or keeps giving up hits in bunches, he likely won't last long this afternoon. Even in its weakened state, the Yankees lineup will feast upon that.

Stuck at the office today? Yeah, me too. Luckily, thanks to Yankees on YES, I'll be able to follow along on my computer. Of course, most of my attention will be on spreadsheets and emails and the like, but I'm sure I'll check in here and there. Let's commiserate in the comments.

Buenas tardes amigo
Hola my good friend
Cinco de Mayo's on Tuesday
And I hoped we'd see each other again

-Lineups-

Yankees:
Jeter's back in the field today, and Nick Johnson returns to the lineup in the two spot as the DH. With Jorge Posada still hobbled and an off day tomorrow, Francisco Cervelli catches the day game after a night game. Randy Winn draws the winning number in today's left field lottery.

Derek Jeter SS
Nick Johnson DH
Mark Teixeira 1B
Alex Rodriguez 3B
Robinson Cano 2B
Nick Swisher RF
Brett Gardner CF
Francisco Cervelli C
Randy Winn LF

Orioles:
Update 12:50 PM: Jones is a late scratch. Lugo moves up to the leadoff spot, Lou Montanez replaces Jones in CF and Lugo in the 9 hole

Julio Lugo SS
Adam Jones CF
Ty Wigginton 2B
Nick Markakis RF
Miguel Tejada 3B
Garrett Atkins 1B
Matt Wieters DH
Nolan Reimold LF
Craig Tatum C
Julio Lugo SS
Lou Montanez CF

Yanks Slug Their Way To Another Victory

A.J. Burnett's sub-par August bled over into September last night but the Yankees' offense launched 5 home runs in his defense and the bullpen provided a scoreless 3 2/3 innings to allow the Yankees to take the victory in Camden Yards.

Three of those homers came off of long ball machine David Martinez, two of which were courtesy of Jorge Posada. He and A.J. Burnett clearly didn't combine for a very good outing as battery mates and Jorge twice forgot the count in his at bats. In the second inning he stood the plate waiting for a pitch after ball four was called, and then three innings later he started walking towards the dugout after strike two was called, only to return to the plate to take Hernandez yard two pitches later. He also was nicked with a foul ball in the eighth inning but told Kim Jones he was okay in the postgame interview.

Nick Swisher and Eric Hinkse went back to back in the 7th, the former breaking a 6-6 tie and the latter putting the Yanks up by 3, which turned out to be the decisive margin. Amazingly, Swisher has hit more homers at Camden Yards this year (4) than he has at Yankee Stadium. He was 13 round-trippers at Oriole Park, the most of any park he hasn't called home.

Damaso Marte was the first to come out of the bullpen, throwing a perfect inning spanning from the 6th to the 7th before being replaced by David Robertson. D-Rob is working his way up the bullpen ladder, and has been used more often in high leverage situations as of late. He didn't disappoint tonight, but was lifted after giving up a double to Brian Roberts in the 8th. Phil Coke closed out the frame and Mariano Rivera picked up his second save in as many days, giving him the Major League lead with 38.

I'm sure the Yankees would have preferred a better start from Burnett but the bottom line is that they got away with it. He gave up six runs in 5 1/3 IP, but a whopping 11 of the 25 balls hit in play against Burnett dropped for hits (.423 BABIP). Hopefully he was just unlucky once again. I wouldn't point to Posada's game calling this time around as the cause for the poor performance. It seemed as if they weren't on the same page again but even if that's true, Jorgie more than compensated for it with his bat.

The Red Sox beat the Rays tonight, and the Rangers topped the Blue Jays. With the Rays sitting six games back, it's starting to look more and more like the Wild Card will come down to the Rangers and Sox with 3.5 games currently separating them.

Game 132: Reelin' In The Years

The Yankees are probably sad to see August go. After winning two-thirds of their games in July (18-9), they took three-quarters of their games in August (21-7). If they carried out that .750 winning percentage through the entire season, it would top the 1998 team's record of 114-48 by almost 10 games. It was clearly and by far the Yankees' best month of the year as they expanded their lead in the division from 0.5 games to 6.5 helped greatly by going 6-1 against the Red Sox.

A.J. Burnett wasn't much help though. The Yankees lost 7 games in the month, and Burnett was on the hook for four of them including the 14-1 disaster against the Sox during which he gave up 9 runs.

Despite striking out more than one batter per inning and recording his highest K/BB, August was Burnett's worst month of this season, as he compiled an ERA over 6 and a WHIP of 1.473. Some of that may be explained by the fact that his BABIP was .337, whereas it had been below .300 in every other month this year and is .288 for his career. Nonetheless, his season ERA was 3.53 heading into his start on August 1st and now stands at 4.10.

It sounds pretty bad, but he really only had two poor starts out of six last month, one 7 run shelling against the White Sox on the 1st and the disaster against the Red Sox on the 22nd. Those were also his only two non-quality starts of his last 13 which include his great run through June and July with a 1.68 ERA and 6 wins in 8 outings.

The Orioles will send 24 year old right hander David Hernandez to the mound tonight. No, not this David Hernandez. He probably throws like a chick. According to his Wikipedia page, the David Hernandez the Yanks will be facing only got drafted by the Orioles because of the connections his father had within the organization. Seriously, check it out.

Hernandez is a fastball-slider-change up pitcher, who struck out 10.2 batters per nine innings in the minor leagues, but has only K'd about half that many in his 74 innings in the majors. He's got a bloated WHIP of 1.520, and K/BB of only 1.34 and has given up 14 HRs in 13 starts including 10 in the month of August. Despite those poor peripherals, Hernandez carries a 4.24 ERA. The Yanks have already seen him this year, and he held them to one run over 6 innings back on July 20th.

The Yanks head into September on a four game winning streak, as hot as they've been all year. The 5 call ups will walk into the clubhouse today and become a part of the best team in baseball for what figures to be an interesting month of baseball. Soon postseason berths will be clinched and teams will be officially eliminated. All that's gone on throughout the course of the year solidify and things start to fall into place.

September is a month of transition. August becomes October and the dog days become cool nights. You feel the energy and freedom of summer being inexorably pulled away and replaced with the chill and constraints of fall. No one wants to see summer end, but in baseball, that's what you look forward to all year.

Your everlasting summer,
You can see it fading fast.
So you grab a piece of something,
That you think is gonna last.

Well, you wouldn't know a diamond,
If you held it in your hand.
The things you think are precious,
I can't understand.

Three Two To Ones

For the third day in a row the Yankees won a game by the score of 2-1. They are the first games of the year the Yanks have won while scoring two or fewer runs and they'd only notched two victories while scoring 3 runs or fewer before the All-Star Break. The odds of matching up a great pitching performance like the one put together by Andy Pettitte and the bullpen tonight to cover a weak offensive output are slim, and during the first few innings, it looked like the match-up was headed in an entirely different direction.

The first batter of the game, Brian Roberts, lofted a deep fly ball into the left field corner which barely stayed in the park. Up next, Nick Markakis blasted one into the home bullpen to make the score 1-0. The Yankees loaded the bases with two outs in the bottom of the first, but David Hernandez won a 9 pitch battle with Robinson Cano to end the inning. They got on the board soon thereafter, though, with a solo shot by Eric Hinkse in the bottom of the second.

Despite the exciting start, the offenses stalled out.

Both Pettitte and Hernandez found their stride and cruised through the middle innings. Allowing three hits and three walks, Herdandez went six frames but threw 103 pitches, due in part to the 35 it took him to get out of the first. Pettitte gave up 6 hits, but compensated with two double plays and a season-high 8 strikeouts. He left mess in the 8th inning for Phil Coke to clean up, though.

With one out and men on second and third, Nick Markakis lined Coke's first pitch to Mark Teixeira, who fired an off balance throw to Jose Molina with Caesar Izturus heading towards the plate. Molina grabbed the throw across this body, and swept a tag towards the plate, just barely in front of the runner. The ball was nearly falling out of his glove, but he trapped it against the ground as Izturus' foot nearly knocked it out. Brain Roberts advanced to third on the play.

Facing Adam Jones, Coke uncorked a wild pitch past Molina, but the veteran catcher quickly tracked and down and fired to Coke covering the plate, who tagged Roberts on an extra wide slide towards home. Two pitches, two fantastic defensive plays, and the lead was preserved.

With it apparent that both Mariano Rivera and Phil Hughes were likely unavailable, it wasn't clear who Girardi would call on to get big outs in the game. After Coke may or may not have hit Adam Jones with a pitch and got Aubrey Huff to fly out to center, our boy Alf was summoned from the 'pen to keep the game tied. Aceves got Melvin Mora to fly out to center and intentionally walked Luke Scott, before rookie Nolan Riemold flied to left for the third out.

A-Rod had the first chance to end the game in the bottom of the 9th, but he hit a flare right at Brain Roberts who had him played nearly straight away, behind second base. Hideki Matsui was next up. He took the first two pitches for balls, fouled the next three off and took the sixth one to the right field bleachers for a walk off HR.

It was the Yankees' 9th such victory this year (and 8th subsequent pie in the face - see comments) and it moved them to 15-11 in one run games. It's thanks to games like this that the Yanks continue to outperform their run differential and are now tied for first place in the AL East for the fifth separate time this season despite having gone just 16-17 within the division.

[Photos via ESPN/AP]

Game 92: Sing Me Back Home

The Yanks have a chance to stretch their current winning streak to 4 and their season series record against the Orioles to 7-3 tonight. Jose Molina is behind the plate, Eric Hinske is in right and Melky is in center with the rest of the defensive alignment in their prime offensive configuration.

Taking the mound for O's will be David Hernandez, a rookie who the Yankees have never seen. Perhaps it's just the attention that has been focused on these types of games, but it seems like the Yanks have faced more than their fair share of fresh meat so far this season. Hernandez is a big 24 year old righty, at 6'3", 215, and has a 4.30 ERA and a 2-2 record in 5 starts this year. He hasn't been dominant, striking out only 13 in 29 1/3 innings and walking 12 in the process.

For the Yanks, Andy Pettitte will be pitching on 9 days rest. His career numbers are slightly better on six or more days rest, which is a good sign, but his stats at the New Yankee Stadium leave much to be desired. Pettitte has been fairly vocal about his poor performances at the new digs. He's blamed his lack of success on his tendency to give up more home runs in the Bronx and a resulting reluctance to challenge hitters, leading to more walks. Here's what he said after his last start at home against the Blue Jays:

"It's very discouraging because I felt like I might've had my best stuff," said Pettitte, who surrendered five walks and five hits, including Alex Rios' three-run, third-inning blow to left. "I feel like a broken record saying I need to keep the walks down, especially here, where you just can't walk guys like that.

"I'm really scratching my head figuring out how I walked so many."

Pettitte's K/BB ratio is actually identical at home and on the road at 1.63, and his walk rate is slightly higher away from TNYS (3.52/9 to 4.13/9). He goes deeper into games on the road as well. True, his home run totals are dramatically different with 12 of them coming in the Bronx against only 3 on the road but that gap is narrowed a bit by the fact that he's thrown 15 more innings at home. To boot, 8 of the ones at home have gone out to left field, which by most accounts isn't that much easier to reach than it was in the old ballpark.

What I'm getting at is that I think much of Pettitte's struggles are in his head. Perhaps it's a product of bad luck. His BABIP is .054 higher at home which you would assume to be even higher, given all the home runs that are taken out of the equation. Bad luck doesn't change what happened in the past, but it does help to more accurately predict the future. In his career, Pettitte's ERA is nearly a half run lower at home and I'm guessing that New Stadium will be kinder to Pettitte in the second half of the '09 season, which very well could be the last of his career. Hopefully tonight will be a step in that direction for him.

Sing me back home with a song I used to hear,
Make my old memories come alive,
Take me away and turn back the years,
Sing me back home before I die.