Thrifty Red Sox Finally Land Another Third Baseman

In what can only be described as another brilliant bargain basement signing, the always-frugal Boston Red Sox signed Adrian Beltre to a one year, $9M contract with a $5M player option for 2011. The deal, which also includes a $1M buyout, comfortably lifts the scrappy small town underdogs over the luxury tax threshold.

Beltre apparently came down a bit from his initial contract demands of 5 years and $65M which was analogous to me applying for a job and asking for the corner office, a secretary and a wet bar. He settled for a temp job in a cubicle with easy access to the water cooler. However, what the deal sacrifices in luxury, it attempts to make up for in flexibility. It offers Beltre the chance to redeem himself coming off a miserable year in which he hit .265/.304/.379 and played in only 111 games, missing significant time due to a... um... well... how do I say this... an injury.

The Sox are banking on last year being an anomaly and Beltre's defensive abilities being all they are cracked up to be, which is to say pretty damn impressive. His average UZR/150 over the last 4 years has been 12.3, which makes up for the fact that his on-base percentage over that same time period has been .321.

While Beltre supposedly turned down longer deals worth more money from other teams let's wait and see how it turns out before declaring it a "steal" or anything of the sort like I sarcastically did in the first paragraph. Fire Brand of the American League lists his home/road splits over the last three years to show that his production was suppressed by playing in Seattle:

2007: (H) .264/.319/.426 (R) .288/.320/.538
2008: (H) .230/.303/.400 (R) .292/.349/.512
2009: (H) .250/.283/.364 (R) .279/.324/.393

But do you notice another trend? His slugging percentage has been declining over the past three years regardless of where he was hitting.

Oh, and there's also the small consideration of Mike Lowell's contract which the Sox will either have to eat or exchange him for a player equally as useless/overpaid. They could hold on to him but given that both he and Beltre are right handed, there's no platoon option. I suppose he could be a fall back DH if Ortiz struggles again, but that's a waste of a roster spot.

The signing of Beltre certainly makes the Sox better next year, but how many teams can afford to replace a player that was making $12M this coming season (and who should be able to play come opening day) with a guy who is making $9M?

The spendthrift ways of last season have been jettisoned in favor of big budget acquisitions in Boston this year. Apparently the items on the sale rack weren't all they were cracked up to be.

Why Is A.J. Burnett Starting Game 2?

This I don't get, so let's let the first guessing begin!

A.J. Burnett has pitched more recently than Andy Pettitte, so flipping the order means Pettitte will start on 7 days rest while Burnett will start on 4. The Twins two best hitters, Jason Kubel and Joe Mauer are left handed so throwing Pettitte might help keep them out of the short porch in right at the Stadium. Burnett will be caught by a dismal offensive catcher, replacing one of the better bats in the line up with someone who may or may not be replacement level.

The decision forces them to carry three catchers for a 5 game series instead of a pinch runner, who might be a waste of a roster spot, but could theoretically be used in every game. Burnett has pitched in a grand total of zero postseason games. The two guys who stand to be offended by this are dynasty cogs - Pettitte and Posada - in favor of a free agent acquisition and a back up catcher that's probably not going to be around next year.

So why would Joe Girardi choose A.J. Burnett to start in two games of this ALDS including the potential deciding Game 5? Even if Posada figures to catch that Game 5, negating one of the above variables, don't you trust Andy Pettitte to give you a representative effort more than Burnett? Not just because of the lack of postseason experience for Burnett, but the fact that Pettitte surrenders fewer homers and far fewer walks. Wouldn't you trust Andy even more if you were Joe Girardi and had caught him before?

Is Pettitte's shoulder hurting? That would make some sense, and I'd be happy that the Yankees didn't announce that publicly. Are we looking at home/road splits, though? Because those are skewed horribly by Burnett's bad outings at Fenway and have evened out since the All-Star Break. Is Girardi doing this based on Burnett's power "stuff"? Because their K/BB rates are pretty similar and the whole "not giving up walks" part of that equation is a lot more important than striking guys out.

Girardi wasn't around the Yankees back then, but he must have been aware of Joe Torre's decision to start John Flaherty to catch Randy Johnson in Game 3 of the 2005 ALDS. You might recall that didn't work out so well.

If Burnett throws a gem, then fantastic, all's well that ends well. But if this doesn't work out for Girardi, he's going to be taking a world of shit for it. On one hand, you can give him some credit for sticking his neck out and making a very questionable decision and going with his convictions, but on the other hand you can look at this as another instance or overmanaging and a potentially fatal one at that.

I get the feeling that this postseason could bring out the worst fan in some us, should things fail to go as planned. The kind of fan who criticizes announcers and questions the manager. Oh wait, I've already done both and the games haven't even started yet. At least I haven't bitched about the umpiring. We'll leave that to angry Tigers fans.

Game 92: Sing Me Back Home

The Yanks have a chance to stretch their current winning streak to 4 and their season series record against the Orioles to 7-3 tonight. Jose Molina is behind the plate, Eric Hinske is in right and Melky is in center with the rest of the defensive alignment in their prime offensive configuration.

Taking the mound for O's will be David Hernandez, a rookie who the Yankees have never seen. Perhaps it's just the attention that has been focused on these types of games, but it seems like the Yanks have faced more than their fair share of fresh meat so far this season. Hernandez is a big 24 year old righty, at 6'3", 215, and has a 4.30 ERA and a 2-2 record in 5 starts this year. He hasn't been dominant, striking out only 13 in 29 1/3 innings and walking 12 in the process.

For the Yanks, Andy Pettitte will be pitching on 9 days rest. His career numbers are slightly better on six or more days rest, which is a good sign, but his stats at the New Yankee Stadium leave much to be desired. Pettitte has been fairly vocal about his poor performances at the new digs. He's blamed his lack of success on his tendency to give up more home runs in the Bronx and a resulting reluctance to challenge hitters, leading to more walks. Here's what he said after his last start at home against the Blue Jays:

"It's very discouraging because I felt like I might've had my best stuff," said Pettitte, who surrendered five walks and five hits, including Alex Rios' three-run, third-inning blow to left. "I feel like a broken record saying I need to keep the walks down, especially here, where you just can't walk guys like that.

"I'm really scratching my head figuring out how I walked so many."

Pettitte's K/BB ratio is actually identical at home and on the road at 1.63, and his walk rate is slightly higher away from TNYS (3.52/9 to 4.13/9). He goes deeper into games on the road as well. True, his home run totals are dramatically different with 12 of them coming in the Bronx against only 3 on the road but that gap is narrowed a bit by the fact that he's thrown 15 more innings at home. To boot, 8 of the ones at home have gone out to left field, which by most accounts isn't that much easier to reach than it was in the old ballpark.

What I'm getting at is that I think much of Pettitte's struggles are in his head. Perhaps it's a product of bad luck. His BABIP is .054 higher at home which you would assume to be even higher, given all the home runs that are taken out of the equation. Bad luck doesn't change what happened in the past, but it does help to more accurately predict the future. In his career, Pettitte's ERA is nearly a half run lower at home and I'm guessing that New Stadium will be kinder to Pettitte in the second half of the '09 season, which very well could be the last of his career. Hopefully tonight will be a step in that direction for him.

Sing me back home with a song I used to hear,
Make my old memories come alive,
Take me away and turn back the years,
Sing me back home before I die.

Doing Splits

I don't play fantasy baseball, but I would like to give you some advice if you do.

Let someone else draft Matt Holliday.

I'm guessing there is some sucker in your league that is going to have their perception skewed by his 2nd place finish in the 2007 NL MVP voting or Woody Paige's homeristic knob slobbery. Perhaps they remember the play at the plate in the 13th inning against the Padres in the 163rd game of the '07 season and subsequent World Series run and snatch him up in the first round. Unfortunately for them, he will now be hitting in the spacious McAfee Coliseum which would harm any hitter's offensive production, let alone someone with Holliday's home/road splits.

If you are a fan of any team with money to spend in the 2010 offseason, you may want to pay attention to this as well, because he will be a free agent (represented by Scott Boras) next year.

Five years is a pretty damn large sample size and those differences are staggering. I can see a player's slugging percentage varying dramatically from home to away based on the dimensions and conditions of other parks, but his average and OBP are both far lower away from Coors. As friend of the blog Simon said on GChat yesterday, he's is like Manny Ramirez at home and Xavier Nady on the road. Look at those guys' stats. He's dead on.

The good news for Holliday owners and A's fans is that his numbers on the road have continually improved throughout his career. Although he didn't have a particularly good year in 2008, his splits were the least dramatic of his five years in the league. That was both a function of his home numbers dropping (especially slugging) and his road numbers getting better.

On other astonishing nugget I found along while perusing his Baseball Reference pages was that his batting average on balls in play (BABIP) was .324 on the road, which is well above the league average (+/- .290). But at home... it's .382. Wow.

(Chart via FanGraphs)

That's not a single season fluke. That took place over the course of 5 seasons and almost 350 games. Granted, the better a hitter is, the better his BABIP will be, given that the ball comes off the bat of the best players the hardest, making it more difficult to field. That said, Manny Ramirez's career BABIP is .344, Albert Puljos's is .323 and A-Rod's is .327. Holliday's overall is .356.

Coors Field installed a humidor in 2002 to counteract the effects of altitude, but it appears as though BABIP is skewed higher in Denver. Todd Helton has a pretty significant home/away BABIP split (.358 to .313). Garrett Atkins (.351 to .279) and Troy Tulowitski (.330 to .302) do too.

It should be interesting to watch Holliday this season, and as fans of AL teams, we will have a few chances to do so. I'm still a little dumbfounded by these numbers, but all signs point to the former Rockie falling off this year with out the assistance of altitude. One thing is for sure though, no matter what happens, Scott Boras is going to be demanding way too much for him next offseason.