Showing posts with label overmanaging. Show all posts
Showing posts with label overmanaging. Show all posts

Thursday, May 27, 2010

Girardi Bends The Rules, Probably Didn't Have To

Good morning, Fackers. One of the details I didn't cover in last night's recap (which I will attribute to the combination of the extreme heat and my lack of an air conditioner) was that the Yankees tried to pull a bit of a fast one to begin the bottom of the ninth inning.

Since Nick Swisher's go-ahead home run came with two outs in the top half of the inning and Mark Teixeira made an out three pitches later trying to leg out a double, Mariano Rivera had barely any time to warm up before he came in to protect the one run lead.

With the lefty Justin Morneau up and Andy Pettitte having thrown only 94 pitches, it seemed plausible that Girardi would let Andy stay in for at least one more batter. However, he let Pettitte take the mound and throw his warm up pitches only to remove him without facing a batter when the inning was about to resume, thereby securing an extra eight or so pitches for Rivera.

When it happened last night, Matt voiced his objections on The Twitters, saying:
This is a pet peeve of mine. If a pitcher takes the mound at the start of an inning, he should have to face 1 batter unless there's a PH.
It turns out that Ron Gardenhire is of the same opinon (via BBTF):
Asked if he ever thought Pettitte actually would throw a pitch in the ninth, Gardenhire said, "No, he wasn't going to throw a pitch. That was kind of tired, to tell you the truth. You don't know normally get that long between innings to do all that, but we know what's going on there."

"That's a situation Major League Baseball needs to take care of when stuff like that happens. You don't have a guy ready in the bullpen, if your starter goes out there, he should have to face a hitter. That's just the way it should be. If you don't get a guy up, that's the way it should be, unless the other team makes a change."
"But that's not what lost the game for us. That's stuff that just gets old right there."
This is somewhat similar to the issue that Joe Girardi protested the game against the Red Sox about. The difference is that Girardi was taking advantage of a loophole in the rules whereas the Sox didn't have any ulterior motives but made a slight procedural error.

I think this transaction speaks to a larger issue, though. The one of Girardi feeling like he absolutely needed Rivera for all three outs despite the fact that he pitched earlier in the day. Would it have been the worst thing in the world if Pettitte, who had pitched pretty damn well and was still very effective in the inning before, faced one left handed batter and gave Mo the appropriate amount of time to get ready?

I often struggle to understand Girardi's moves as a manager but I've found one tendency that he is incredibly consistent in displaying. If the game is tight, he will exert every ounce of control over it that he can. Like in the seventh inning of the game Javy Vazquez started against the Mets when Joe went through three pitchers before they got two outs despite the fact that there were still two more innings left to pitch. Just yesterday, he didn't want to announce who would be pitching when the first game resumed because then the Twins could have... um... I don't know, done something with that information, maybe?

Honestly, part of the reason that this kind of stuff frustrates me is that I hate commercial breaks and Girardi makes so damn many mid-inning pitching changes it's like he has a clause in his contract that gives him a percentage of the ad revenue. Those are usually the times when the game is on the line and we all have to sit through two minutes and thirty seconds of shitty advertising because the other team's backup catcher is left handed.

Clearly his bullpen management has been one of Girardi's strengths in his time with the Yankees but that's partially because he has Rivera as a rock at the end of it. What's going to happen when someone less trustworthy is responsible for nailing down saves? Will he still sit on his hands and watch things unfold?

During that game against the Mets I likened Girardi with a slim lead to a kid holding a pet rabbit. He holds it like a vise grip because he doesn't want to let it get away. But sometimes he ends up strangling it in the process. You want your manager to do what he can to win every single game, but was it necessary to rush Rivera and make sure that he was in there for all three outs given that he had pitched earlier in the day? If there's any chance that he's nursing an injury or could have hurt himself as a result, the answer is obviously "no".

Friday, April 30, 2010

Game 22 Recap

1. The first two batters Andy Pettitte faced were Alexei Ramirez and Gordon Beckham and both reached on soft bloops to shallow right field. Andy got Alex Rios to fly out but Paul Konerko took advantage of the Sox's good fortune and lifted a slider on the outside half of the plate just over the right field wall. The ball was nearly caught by Nick Swisher, but for some reason, a fan attempted to catch it with his jacket and blocked Swish's glove. It wasn't technically fan interference because the guy wasn't leaning over the wall but it very might have been a catch if he wasn't there.

2. The Yankees didn't waste any time in rebounding. After a Jeter single and a walk by Mark Teixeira, A-Rod broke out of a 0-19 slump with an RBI double to left. Up next, Robinson Cano poked a single through the left side and drove in Teixeira. The Yanks had runners on the corners with one out but Nick Swisher grounded into a double play to end the threat, and left the Yanks down 3-2.

3. Pettitte gave up a double to Donny Lucy to start the second inning and followed that up with a walk to the anemic-hitting Juan Pierre. Lucy advanced to 3rd on a fielder's choice and scored on a sac fly to make it 4-2 White Sox.

4. Brett Gardner singled to lead off the bottom of the 5th, stole second but had it rendered moot by a long blast by Derek Jeter to left field. Freddy Garcia tried to sneak a curveball past Jeter but Derek turned on it for a rare pulled home run and tied the game at 4.

5. In the 7th, after Francisco got hit with an 0-2 pitch by the left handed Matt Thornton, Joe Girardi elected to stick with Brett Garnder instead of calling on Marcus Thames to pinch hit. The decision paid off as Gardner battled through an 8 pitch at bat, finally poking a single up the middle. Jeter came to the plate next and after slicing a ball just foul down the right field line, took a 2-2 pitch just inside the line just past the diving try of Jason Nix, a back up infielder filling in the the scratched Andruw Jones. Cervelli and Gardner both scored and Jeter slid safely into third with a go-ahead triple, making the score 6-4 Yankees.

6. Damaso Marte, Joba Chamberlain (more on these two below) and some fellow who goes by the name of Mariano Rivera nailed down the final 6 outs withouts giving up a baserunner and that was that. Yanks win 6-4 and close out the month of April 15-7.

IFs, ANDs & BUTs
  • Andy Pettitte gave up as many runs in the first two innings of this game as he did in his other four starts this season.

  • Pettitte only had 98 pitches when Alfredo Aceves took over during the top of the 7th. Andy had gone 114 pitches in Anaheim and the first couple of innings were pretty stressful for him so I thought it was probably a good decision.

  • Considering that all of the damage came so early in the game and much of it was fairly cheap, this was a pretty successful start for Pettitte. It's going to bump his ERA up significantly but he did a good job playing hand he was dealt after the rocky start.

  • Jeter didn't hit a home run to left field until his 13th of last season but since then, five of his last nine have gone left of center.

  • In addition to ending up a double short of the cycle, the Captain also drove in four runs for the first time since September 10, 2006 against the Orioles.

  • Damaso Marte came in to get Mark Teahen in the 8th, retired him and with the devastating Jayson Nix (career OPS+ 68) on deck, was pulled in favor of Joba Chamberlain. The White Sox had two legitimate pinch hitting options, Mark Kotsay and A.J. Pierzynski, both left handed and both significantly better hitters than Nix. Girardi essentially forced Oxzie Gullein to have Kostay pinch hit for Nix, which doesn't make a whole lot of sense. Pierzynski was probably going to hit for Donnie Lucy anyway and Marte could have still been in to face him. Joba got both of those Sox to ground out softly, so it ended well, but I don't see how pulling Marte after one batter makes any sense. Either let Joba start the inning or let Marte go until he gives up a baserunner.
We're back at it tomorrow at 1:00PM as Javy Vazquez has to face his detractors both in the stands and in a hooded sweatshirt in the opposing dugout.

Monday, October 26, 2009

A Fine Fall Day

("Not going to school on Wednesday, going to the World Series")

Good morning, Fackers. It's a fine one to be a supporter of the New York Baseballing Yankees, wouldn't you say? According to the folks over a LoHud, the Yanks didn't hold much back last night. It's alright, they've got almost three full days to shake it off.

Fittingly, a sloppily contested game replete with dubious managerial moves topped off a series that might be remembered for both of those things. The only thing missing was an egregiously wrong call by an umpire. The "fundamentally sound" Angels had Vlad Guerrero picked off of first base on what should have been a routine play in the 3rd and made two errors on plays when the Yankees were handing them outs in the 8th inning.

As for the managing, the questionable decision making began in the 4th inning. Following singles by Nick Swisher and Robinson Cano, the Yanks asked Melky Cabrera to sacrifice them over to second and third. I know what Girardi was thinking. Pass the baton to Jeter and hope he singles home a few runs. But Saunders was on the ropes and looked nothing short of terrible. Timely hitting was the only thing between the Yankees and a sizable lead at that point. I can see that move in the later innings or against a dominant pitcher, maybe, but to do it in the 4th inning against a guy in Saunders who had been pitching terribly to that point doesn't make sense.

If you look at this run expectancy matrix, you'll see that a successful bunt in this spot would have even decreased the Yankees chances to score exactly one run, increased their odds of plating two or three but decreased their odds of having a bigger inning. The way Saunders was pitching, I wouldn't discount the possibility of the latter.

So despite Girardi's best efforts to avoid delivering the knockout blow, the Yankees still loaded the bases for Johnny Damon who drove two home, and re-loaded them via a single from Teixeira for A-Rod. Mike Sciosica left (southpaw) Joe Saunders in to face A-Rod with the bases loaded in the 4th inning. At the time, Saunders had faced 21 batters and allowed 11 to reach base (with one of the 10 retired coming on a sac bunt). That's who you want facing the other team's best hitter with the bases loaded in an elimination game? Saunders of course walked A-Rod on an incredibly close pitch, forcing in a run.

I disagreed with the way Joe Girardi's chose to pull his starter as well. After getting Howie Kendrick to line out, Pettitte gave up a single to Juan Rivera on a pitch that was high but over the middle of the plate. At that point, Pettitte had thrown only 99 pitches and induced 9 ground balls. He was one pitch away from getting out of the inning but Girardi went to his bullpen for David Robertson. Oh wait, no he didn't. Phil Hughes. Err, no. He went to Joba Chamberlain for some reason known only to him. Ostensibly because he believes that it's still 2007.

Girardi had apparently already made up his mind that he was going to use Mariano Rivera for 6 outs, so why did he pick Joba over Hughes? Or Robertson? We were told this week that there was nothing wrong with Hughes and that it was a simple mechanical issue. Robertson was solid during the regular season and perfect in the postseason. Joba has been neither of those things. He's given up 5 hits in 2 2/3 postseason IP and was not effective when last seen as a starter. What makes Girardi think that he's the guy you want in when the game is on the line?

Of course, Girardi also tried desperately to give away outs in the 9th inning when the Yankees were leading by 1, not once but twice, however the Angels simply wouldn't let him.

But hey, all's well that ends well, right?

I personally had a pretty sweet day as well. I played in a golf tourament at a Donald Ross track called The Sagamore in Lake George, my team won by 4 shots, I took home longest drive and won the 50/50 raffle (and didn't donate it, sorry Bolton Booster Club!). I got home a little bit after first pitch and Big Willie Style had taken the liberty of setting his TV up on a table beneath the 46" so we could watch the Yankees and Giants at the same time. It came at the expense of the internet and therefore active Twittering, but it was a necessary trade off.

Only the top TV had the audio on, so we flipped to the Giants game on when there was action and the Yankees were at commercial (Black taco! Apparently blue corn tortillas are black now. Who knew?). At one point, within about 20 seconds of each other, Hakeem Nicks lucked into a touchdown catch on a crazy deflection for the Giants and Johnny Damon rapped an 2 RBI single for the Yanks. It was worth the trouble just for that.

The Giants were mounting a possible game-tying drive that got derailed when Ahmad Bradshaw fumbled struggling for some extra yards. You can't win 'em all, and that was pretty much the only loss I took yesterday.

Friday, October 23, 2009

Don't Kill The Manager

Morning Fackers. Last night sucked. There's no way around it. But what sucks even more is that we are going to have to listen to people second guess every managerial move made last night for two days before Game 6.

I'm not going to name names, but there were a lot of people on Twitter last night who couldn't possibly understand why Mike Scioscia took John Lackey out with 104 pitches with the bases loaded in the top of the 7th (you know, after the Yanks scored all their runs). Interestingly, they were also conveniently outraged that Joe Girardi let A.J. Burnett come out for the 7th inning with 80 pitches (but only after Burnett allowed two men to reach base, of course). And what was pretty much the only thing that those two moves had in common? Neither worked out.

I'm sure they weren't just on Twitter. These Monday morning quarterbacks were probably in the bars and living rooms where you guys were watching the game as well. These people know who they are. Actually, they probably don't because they only deal in hindsight and therefore always agree with the decisions that work out and can't possibly believe what the manager was thinking when one goes wrong.

First, the Lackey move. Don't forget that two batters before he was pulled, Lackey showed up home plate umpire Fieldin Culbreth by waving his arms and yelling at him after a called ball four. He then walked Derek Jeter on 4 pitches and left a ball fat and over the plate that Johnny Damon luckily didn't do much with. Lackey had lost his composure and lost his strike zone and I doubt Culbreth was dying to give him any close pitches. While it was a debatable decision, I can see why Scioscia went to his bullpen. Whether it should have been Darren Oliver is another issue.

As for Burnett, he had given up all four of his runs in the first inning before he even recorded an out. Therefore, he had just pitched 6 consecutive scoreless innings leading up to that point and needed only 68 pitches to do so. What would you have thought about leaving him in if he hadn't allowed those runs in the first? Because what happened in that inning was not nearly as relevant as how he had been throwing the ball since then.

Sure, Girardi could have gone to the bullpen, but the people who are smugly second guessing that decision are the same ones who have been crying about "overmanaging" throughout this postseason mostly because it's become the in vogue thing to say.

Perhaps Girardi could have pulled Burnett after the lead-off single to Mathis. But the only right handed reliever who was ready at that point was Joba, and I think we can agree that he didn't have his best stuff last night. Perhaps he should have had Hughes warming up, but the same thing applies to him. So Burnett gave up the single to Mathis. Is it Girardi's fault that the Angels' back up cather has decided to turn into Josh Gibson during this series? He's literally a career .200 hitter - on the nose.

Does anyone remember how the Yankees got the two outs in that inning? It was Damaso Marte, who Girardi chose over Phil Coke to face Chone Figgins and Bobby Abreu, but I don't hear anyone acknowledging the fact that decision worked out well for him.

The reality is that no matter how the Yankees blew the lead - if Girardi had brought in Joba, Hughes, Robertson, Coke, Aceves, Marte or Rivera in any order - he would be taking shit for it this morning. For instance, if he brought in Hughes and he coughed up the lead, people would be exasperated that Girardi had pulled Burnett after only 80 pitches. Ergo, at a certain point, the blame goes to the players.

Although the offense scored 6 runs, they were useless for 8 innings. The black hole in the bottom of the line-up known as "Nick Swisher" made the Yankees 32.3% less likely to win this game with his offensive contributions (or lack thereof). Johnny Damon wasn't helping either (-11.9%).

Phil Hughes needed to get one out in the 7th inning and the Yankees would have held onto the lead. One out and no one would have been talking about Girardi's bullpen management this morning.

Instead, Hughes issued a pass to Torii Hunter that I'm sure anyone reading this blog could have worked since none of the four balls even sniffed the strike zone. Next, he had Vlad Guerrero right where he wanted him - in a 1-2 count after an ugly swing and miss. Jorge Posada called for a pitch up in the zone, momentarily standing up from his crouch to indicate it, but Hughes served a belt-high meatball along with some spaghetti, Bolognese sauce, grated Pecorino Romano and some delicious garlic bread. He's lucky Vlad is half the man he used to be or else that would have probably been a grand slam instead of a bobbling single up the middle.

The least defensible move that Girardi made, which hardly anyone is talking about because it didn't end up mattering, was the decision to pinch run for A-Rod in the 9th inning. The game almost equally likely to be tied up at that point with A-Rod or Guzman running the bases, as Dave Cameron from FanGraphs demonstrated. Cameron estimates that the marginal gain of putting in Guzman is something like 1%. Girardi traded that in for having his best hitter (and a solid defender) on the bench in extra innings should the Yankees have tied the game. Imagine the uproar if A-Rod's line up slot had come up again.

I understand that Girardi has made his bed by executing a ton of agressive moves this postseason, most of which have worked out but some of which have not. He's exerted too much control over the games too many times, so now people are all too willing to critique every move he makes. He's made the game too much about himself as opposed to the players which is why people are so open with their complaints. But save your breath. As Cameron said in the linked post above, we're tilting at windmills. You can assign blame 'til you're blue in the face, but it's not going to put the Yankees in the World Series. They're going to have to do that themselves sometime this weekend.

Wednesday, October 7, 2009

Why Is A.J. Burnett Starting Game 2?

This I don't get, so let's let the first guessing begin!

A.J. Burnett has pitched more recently than Andy Pettitte, so flipping the order means Pettitte will start on 7 days rest while Burnett will start on 4. The Twins two best hitters, Jason Kubel and Joe Mauer are left handed so throwing Pettitte might help keep them out of the short porch in right at the Stadium. Burnett will be caught by a dismal offensive catcher, replacing one of the better bats in the line up with someone who may or may not be replacement level.

The decision forces them to carry three catchers for a 5 game series instead of a pinch runner, who might be a waste of a roster spot, but could theoretically be used in every game. Burnett has pitched in a grand total of zero postseason games. The two guys who stand to be offended by this are dynasty cogs - Pettitte and Posada - in favor of a free agent acquisition and a back up catcher that's probably not going to be around next year.

So why would Joe Girardi choose A.J. Burnett to start in two games of this ALDS including the potential deciding Game 5? Even if Posada figures to catch that Game 5, negating one of the above variables, don't you trust Andy Pettitte to give you a representative effort more than Burnett? Not just because of the lack of postseason experience for Burnett, but the fact that Pettitte surrenders fewer homers and far fewer walks. Wouldn't you trust Andy even more if you were Joe Girardi and had caught him before?

Is Pettitte's shoulder hurting? That would make some sense, and I'd be happy that the Yankees didn't announce that publicly. Are we looking at home/road splits, though? Because those are skewed horribly by Burnett's bad outings at Fenway and have evened out since the All-Star Break. Is Girardi doing this based on Burnett's power "stuff"? Because their K/BB rates are pretty similar and the whole "not giving up walks" part of that equation is a lot more important than striking guys out.

Girardi wasn't around the Yankees back then, but he must have been aware of Joe Torre's decision to start John Flaherty to catch Randy Johnson in Game 3 of the 2005 ALDS. You might recall that didn't work out so well.

If Burnett throws a gem, then fantastic, all's well that ends well. But if this doesn't work out for Girardi, he's going to be taking a world of shit for it. On one hand, you can give him some credit for sticking his neck out and making a very questionable decision and going with his convictions, but on the other hand you can look at this as another instance or overmanaging and a potentially fatal one at that.

I get the feeling that this postseason could bring out the worst fan in some us, should things fail to go as planned. The kind of fan who criticizes announcers and questions the manager. Oh wait, I've already done both and the games haven't even started yet. At least I haven't bitched about the umpiring. We'll leave that to angry Tigers fans.

Wednesday, September 9, 2009

I'll Show YOU Overmanaging!

During the 7th inning last night, after Chad Gaudin had been pulled and the Yankees' lead contracted to one run, Joe Girardi and Joe Maddon engaged in a managerial pissing contest of epic proportions. I detailed it in last night's recap, but as usual, left the editorializing for another post.

Both Matt and I have been critical of Joe Girardi's bullpen tinkering for a variety of reasons, but not because they haven't been successful. He's been pulling the strings and things have worked out well for him this year. That's terrific and all, but manager can deploy too many resources at once. It's called overmanaging, and we've discussed this before.

Let's roll the tape:

Once Girardi called on Marte with men on first and second and no one out, Maddon pinch hit for journeyman first baseman Chris Richard with righty Gabe Kapler. Fair enough. It would only have been Richards' fourth plate appearance of the year and Kapler is an upgrade at the plate. Those two moves essentially made themselves.

Due up next for the Rays were catcher Greg Zaun and lefty outfielder Gabe Gross, with the obvious pinch hitting candidates being two switch hitters, catcher Dioner Navarro and outfielder Willy Aybar.

Joe Girardi knew this, and had surely noticed that Marte had given just one baserunner (via a walk) in his 4 1/3 IP since being recalled from the DL. On three recent occasions Marte has pitched a scoreless inning or more, so despite the fact that Girardi said he thought of him as a LOOGY upon recall, he has undeniably been more than that. But rather than test Marte in a game that had the atmosphere and set up but not the import of a postseason one, he brought in Brian Bruney to face one of two guys who were just going to spin around and bat left handed against him anyway.

Even more questionable, Joe Maddon was the fact that called on Dioner Navarro who has a 53 OPS+ in 363 plate appearances this year, to hit for Zaun who was at 95 in 235. Navarro was slugging .266 against righties this year. Bruney got Navarro out, but was it really worth burning Damaso Marte after just one out to get Bruney face a guy who has been far, far, FAR below replacement level as a hitter this year?

Due up next was Gabe Gross, who about as strict of a platoon player as you will see in the majors today with about 9 times as many plate appearances against RHP than LHP. Girardi saw the opportunity to force Maddon's hand, and he did. Phil Coke came on, and Maddon went with Willy Aybar, who spun around to bat from his slightly weaker side, the right. Coke walked Aybar to load the bases but then got lefty Akanori Iwamura to ground out to end the inning.

All is well that ends well, right? Well, not really.

First of all, with two switch-hitting players on the bench, does it really make sense for Girardi to match up with them? Neither Navarro nor Aybar have significant platoon splits and neither are great hitters to begin with. If Girardi had just left Marte in, Maddon would have had to make the same moves.

Secondly, by burning through three pitchers who are all capable of throwing a scoreless inning or more each, Girardi fired three bullets and got only 3 outs. The security blanket of Hughes and Rivera were there, but as we saw last night, it's not fool proof. Thanks to Nick Swisher, the Yanks didn't have to go to extra innings, but if they did, their 5 of their best available relief pitchers would have already been used, as Jason pointed out in the comments, leaving a rather unappealing slew of possibilities for the later innings, when the game theoretically becomes increasingly important.

One of the reasons that this excessive matching up doesn't make that much sense to me is that it happens most often in close, low scoring games, a.k.a. the ones that are most likely to go into extra innings. Yes this was a September game with the safety net of expanded rosters, but every guy Girardi used projects to be on the 25 man for the playoffs, meaning that he wasn't treating it like one.

Ripping through a total of four pitchers and three pinch hitters in one inning is a luxury only afforded to managers one month out of the season and they are more than willing to use that option to prove to everyone how smart they are. Not only does it create even more commercial breaks and annoy the shit out of me personally, it's not really great strategy, even for games in September.

If someone could prove to me that bringing in three pitchers to face one batter each is somehow better than leaving in one pitcher (who is better than the other two) I would be open to that idea. However, given the fact that excessive pitching changes waste capable relievers after only a fraction the service they are capable of performing, leaving the bullpen exposed if the game goes into extras, I question it every time it happens.

Last night's game had a playoff feel to it and if that's what Girardi thinks is going to be proper strategy when the rosters contract and the games start to really matter, color me a little concerned. The fact that this hasn't backfired on Girardi yet is scary in that it very well might in October.

Swish Steps Up, Yanks Walk Off

Even though both the Yankees and the Rays have increasingly less to play for with each passing regular season game, it wasn't apparent last night. The game had all the trimmings of a postseason match-up, save for the fact that Chad Gaudin was starting.

Like he did in his previous two starts for the Yankees, Gaudin fizzled out at a certain point. Unlike his previous two, he went deep into the game, holding the Rays scoreless up until Evan Longoria came to the plate in the top of the seventh inning. Longoria ripped an 0-2, lined shot over the wall in left field. Gaudin then gave up a single to Ben Zobrist and a walk to Pat Burrell prompting Joe Girardi to go to the bullpen.

He first called on Damaso Marte causing Joe Maddon to pinch hit for lefty-hitting first baseman Chris Richard with Gabe Kapler. Marte retired Kapler on a fly ball to right on only two pitches, but then with switch hitting Gregg Zaun due up, Maddon summoned switch-hitting Dioner Navarro, who spun around to bat left handed. Girardi countered by signaling for the righty Brian Bruney who got Navarro to ground into a force out at third. The managerial meddling didn't stop there as Girardi tapped his left arm for Phil Coke and Maddon deployed the switch-hitter Willy Aybar. Coke walked Aybar but got Akanori Iwamura to ground out to short, ending the inning.

Ironically, it was the most obvious move to the bullpen of the night that backfired on Joe Girardi. Phil Hughes was given the ball to start the 8th inning and was taken deep on his very first pitch to Jason Bartlett, a no-doubt shot to left field. It was Hughes' first blown lead as a relief pitcher. He gave up a single to the next batter but induced a flyball and a double play grounder to get out of the inning.

Even though lefty sidearmer Randy Choate has massive platoon splits, he was left in to face Derek Jeter in the bottom half of the inning. Jeter ripped one to right, but Gabe Kapler was standing right where it was headed. Johnny Damon then dragged a surprise bunt towards first base that got past Choate and looked to be a single until Choate flipped it to first with his glove, beating Damon by a half of a step.

The score remained knotted at 2 when Mariano Rivera took the hill for the top of the 9th. Mo knocked the Rays down 1-2-3, setting the stage for the Yankees 13th walk off win of the year.

Before his massive blast off of David Price in the second inning, Nick Swisher hadn't hit a home run at Yankee Stadium since June 8th. He had hit only three there all season. He had hit only one other walk off jack in his career. But he lifted his second round-tripper of the night just barely over the right field wall, and continued along with the obligatory jog around the bases, helmet toss and pie in the face. Predicatably giddy, Swish had a giant smile on his face right on through the post game interviews on TV.

Maybe it was the spunky newcomer conquering the demons that had sapped his power at home all year. More likely though, it was a statistical correction that Swisher's 25th and 26th homers on the year were lofted into the New York City night. Either way, it was just another game that the Yankees could have easily lost but seemed destined to win.

Saturday, August 29, 2009

When Is A Plan Not A Plan?

In the car yesterday, I was listening to the radio pregame and heard Joe Girardi tell John Sterling on "The Manager's Show" (since confirmed by others) that Joba Chamberlain will now be starting on his regular 5 days of rest, but as Girardi said "may not always factor into the decision". This obviously means that instead of allowing him fewer starts, they are going to limit his innings per appearance.

Joba only has one start left before September call-ups are made, so hopefully Joe Girardi will utilize the resulting extra arms available to him to cushion the blow on the more valuable members of the bullpen. I have my doubts though, because Girardi, like Joe Torre before him, has real trouble putting any reliever that he doesn't trust into a game that isn't a totally one-sided. Much will depend on the standings, of course.

I wasn't sure why, but listening to Girardi deliver that piece of news, I felt a little miffed. Just like they did with A-Rod and his supposed "one day off per week" plan the Yankees immediately deviated from their stated intentions, which sort of defeats the purpose of, you know, having "a plan". That is their right, but at what point to do we stop listening to what the Yankees claim they are going to do?

Cashman and Girardi use of "plans" as a tool to convey their message to the media with a degree of certainty that stifles the speculation that can sometimes get out of hand in New York. It certainly is an effective tactic, because when they say something, it gets reported in multiple places as fact, only to be redacted and updated at the shortest possible interval in which it could be changed.

So next time we hear the Yankees claim that they have "a plan" for something, let's realize what that is has more to do with PR than it does with baseball.

Wednesday, August 26, 2009

A Letter To Joe Girardi

Dear Mr. Girardi,
Last night was very nearly incredibly awesome. A 5 run comeback in the 9th inning would have been a monumental achievement and the best comeback victory in a season with 40 of them already. It would have returned the favor to the Rangers, who got quite lucky to string together a 5 run rally without making an out themselves in the 4th inning (which it might surprise you to learn, didn't include a bunt attempt). But last night was not awesome. It was incredibly frustrating.

You see, Joe, last night my roommates and I decided to take the plunge and buy a new TV. Big Willie Style's 32" had been holding down the mantle in the interim and it was time to get serious about our new place.

After a long day, we drove to Boscov's at around 8:30 and then to Sears, intent on acquiring one before the stores closed at 9:30. We very nearly bought this 42" LG for $700, but they didn't have it in stock. After a serious amount of deliberating, we decided to go with this 46" Samsung which was priced at $1200 on the shelf but after the 10% discount I got for opening a Sears card (which I'm literally never going to use after this purchase) it was $1166 after taxes. No interest or payments for 6 months to boot. Not bad. Am I right, Joe? Or perhaps you might have gone with the 24 months of free financing, since that's what "the book" on buying TVs says.

After we got the TV loaded in the van, it was about 9:50 and we turned on the game just in time to John and Suzyn called Michael Young's two run homer in the 7th inning. Great. On the way home we listened to the radio duo swoon over Neftali Feliz and compare him to Joba as he touched 100 on the radar gun (101 according to pitch f/x). We arrived back at the apartment and set up the new toy just in time for the top of the ninth.

We cracked a few Dogfish Head Immort Ales to celebrate and watched as Damaso Marte work a pretty solid inning in amazing 1080i resolution. Predictably, we marveled at the new awesomeness of our new TV, which fit on top of our mantle like the stand had been custom made for it.

Then the 9th inning came, Joe. Remember it? After the Yankees sent six straight runners to the plate without making an out, you decided to give one away by asking a guy who is terrible a bunting to do something, which even if he was successful at, would have hurt the team's chances at winning. The run expectation actually declines when you go from men on first and second with no outs to runners on second and with one down. Take a look.

Furthermore, Frank Francisco had already walked A-Rod and thrown fewer than half of his pitches for strikes. You took away Nick Swisher's excellent ability to work a walk by having him bunt in that spot. Did you see Francisco's first pitch? It was at fucking eye level. How do not make that guy throw strikes?

You asked a guy to bunt who can't bunt to set the table for a guy who is worse than 50% at getting the runner in from third with less than 2 outs. It's a stupid move in principle and it was even dumber under these circumstances.

And when it failed completely, you stormed around in the dugout like a fucking 4 year old because your fucking boneheaded decision didn't work out.

In all fairness, I stormed around my apartment at the same time, but I was acting like at least an 8 year old.

So thanks, Joe. It could have been one of the best TV Christenings in the history of mankind. But as soon as you started meddling and overmanaging, the whole thing went to shit.

Yes, right THERE. In the highest possible leverage situation.

I'm not blaming Melky Cabrera for lining into a double play, Joe. The entire situation would have been different if you let Nick Swisher take a full swing at the ball instead of conceding a precious out to a guy who could hardly throw a strike.

This is your fault.
Fuck you,

Fack Youk

Friday, August 7, 2009

Beggars Can't Be Choosers

The Yankees would have taken a win anyway they could have got it last night and the Baseball Gods responded with a protracted, sloppy, lopsided affair that spanned nearly four hours, included 26 hits, 18 walks and 23 runners left on base.

It didn't appear to bode well for the Yanks when Jorge Posada trotted into home standing straight up in the 2nd inning and walked right into a chest high relay throw from Dustin Pedroia to Victor Martinez. At that point it seemed possible that Posada's baserunning gaffe would come back to haunt them later in the game. That notion vanished fairly quickly when Yanks sent 13 runners to the plate in the bottom of the fourth and scored 8 of them.

Joba Chamberlain, although he got the win, was not sharp at all, throwing 108 pitches in five innings, walking 7 and giving up two home runs. He continually failed to put away hitters but still managed to earn his 8th win of the season and 4th in a row.

Despite the fact that the Yanks were leading by eight runs when they made their first call to the bullpen, Joe Girardi still managed to use four more pitchers. (The Red Sox used only 3 to absorb 45 plate appearances). Girardi also pinch hit and pinch ran comfortably ahead and made defensive switches with a 9 run lead in the 9th inning. Anthony Claggett came on for the final three outs, but apparently couldn't have been trusted with a 7 run lead in the 8th inning or a 6 run cushion in the 7th.

I'm not sure if Mark Melancon purposely threw at Dustin Pedoia with a 13-4 advantage in the eighth, but this is just a fantastic photograph, you know, on an artistic level. (via AP/Yahoo)

It must have been a horrible baseball game to watch if you weren't a fan of the Yankees. Sorry about that. We take what we can get.

Thursday, July 9, 2009

Joe Girardi Refuses To Be Outmanaged

With two outs in the eighth inning last night, Joe Girardi gave way too much respect to a bad hitter. It was a lot like calling on Phil Coke to face Brayan Pena back in April, except this time he got away with it.

There were two outs and a man on first base, and the pitcher on the mound was a converted starter, clearly capable of throwing more than 13 pitches in an outing. Instead he went to his 39 year old closer to get yet another four out save.

Why?

I'll tell you why. Ron Gardenhire made a managerial move and Joe Girardi was too scared to stand pat in response. This is the epitome of overmanaging. Making a move for the sake of making a move.

Jose Morales has good numbers in the Majors, but before he got called up, he was hitting .273/.362/.327 in AAA. He has only four extra base hits in 70 MLB plate appearances this year, none of which are home runs. As a matter of fact, he's hit just 6 homers in his last 746 minor league PA's, and 0 in 127 this year. Not exactly a threating presence at the plate.

I love the fact that Rivera isn't coddled like Trevor Hoffman and can get saves that require more than three outs. But let's conserve those for when they are actually needed, not when the opposing manager summons a guy with a career .373 minor league slugging percentage to pinch hit. Girardi has brought Mo into the 8th inning three times in his last 7 outings. Easy there Joe, it's only July.

Notice that I didn't question the move to bring in Phil Coke, which made sense but didn't work out. I'm questioning removing Hughes, which was overkill, and worked out anyway. Hindsight is irrelevant, optimal decision making is about using the information at hand to choose the best alternative at the time. This was unnecessary.

After the game Girardi hinted that Hughes might stay in the bullpen for the rest of the year. how about letting him build up some confidence, instead of essentially telling him you don't think he's capable of getting a big out?

Hughes has pitched 50 1/3 innings to date this season, between starting and coming out of the bullpen. If he stays in the 'pen being used how he is now, how many innings could he possibly pitch? 80? 90? 100 max?

What happens next year if they want to put him back in the starting rotation? The Yanks are going to be in the same spot they were at the beginning of this season; miles away from a reasonable innings limit for a starter.

The way things are going, Chien Ming Wang is far from a lock to hold down one of the spots. Andy Pettitte wanted to pitch in the New Stadium, but as rough as it has been on him so far, it's beginning to look more and more like he isn't going to want to come back. We'd all like to think Joba Chamberlain will get things figured out, but that's not a guarantee either. That leaves the Yanks with two starting pitchers, A.J. Burnett and CC Sabathia, both of whom are fairly significant injury risks.

Do I think having Hughes in the bullpen gives the Yanks the best chance to win in the short term? Sure, but so does calling up J.P. Ricciardi tomorrow and offering him Hughes, Austin Jackson and Jesus Montero for Roy Halladay. The organization has stated multiple times that they see Hughes as a future component of the Yankees' rotation. Why don't they start acting like it?

Wednesday, April 29, 2009

How To Overmanage Your Bullpen, by Joe Girardi

"Hmmm, let's see here. There are two outs and it's the bottom of the 9th inning. The tying run is still in the dugout. Why don't I go get my closer? RIGHT NOW!"

"Yeah, perhaps that wasn't such a good idea."

Rivera hadn't pitched in five days, he probably needed some work. The Yanks had been up for 7 runs for four straight innings, it's not like the situation snuck up on Girardi. Why not let him start the 9th?

Or, I suppose, you could bring in someone else and go into panic mode when you are still up by 5 runs. The absolute worst case scenario was that Albaladejo gives up a three run homer and the Yanks are up by two, with two out and no one on base. That shouldn't even count as a save situation. It's one out. And again, that's the worst case scenario. Why pull the alarm and rush Rivera into the game? The guy is an extremely valuable commodity and he's 39 years old. Don't jerk him around unless it's absolutely necessary. 

This isn't because Granderson hit the home run. It was a stupid decision regardless of the result. The bullpen meddling annoys me, Joe, it probably lowers the confidence of the pitcher you are taking out of the game, and most importantly, IT KEEPS BACKFIRING ON YOU. 

STOP IT.