AL East Q&A: Daniel Moroz Talks O's

Next up in our AL East Q&A series, we are pleased to welcome one of the best Orioles bloggers on any of the intertubes.

Daniel Moroz is the proprietor of Camden Crazies and a contributor to the excellent Beyond the Box Score. For a sampling of his sabermetric chops, take a look at the five part series (1, 2, 3, 4, 5) that he did exploring Nick Markakis' drop in walks last year. Daniel is also the man behind the sensational Matt Wieters Facts. Please give him your undivided attention.

Fack Youk: Is it true that saying Matt Wieters is perfect would underestimate his abilities?

Daniel Moroz: One of the more amusing parts of the Matt Wieters Facts phenomena has been that my analysis of his actual performance hasn't been all that complementary. He did well – for a catcher - last year, but I don't think he's going to be a dominant force quite yet. I was expecting him to walk a little more than he did in 2009, though (not that it means much) he has been doing that this Spring. An above average bat in 2010 may not make Wieters an MVP candidate, but it should make him one of the better catchers in baseball already - with plenty of room for more development in the coming years.

FY: Aside from Wieters, what young position player on the O's do you have the most hope for going forward? Is it Adam Jones? Nick Markakis? Nolan Reimold?

DM: I have the most hope for Markakis, because we've seen him play at an elite level before with his .306/.406/.491 line from 2008. If he can return to that echelon - largely by getting his walk rate back up - then that would really help the offense. I don't know that Adam Jones can reach those levels with the bat because of his less than stellar plate discipline, but a .300/.375/.500 peak with plus defense in center-field would also be very valuable. Reimold I'm not quite as high on - though I was one of his biggest fans as he was coming up through the minors - as I think he's more of a role player (above average bat, but average to below defense in an outfield corner - average player overall) in the Luke Scott mold than a star. Honestly, I might have more hopes for Felix Pie, who is already a very good defensive outfielder and who could become an above average player if he improves at the plate.

FY: With Brad Bergesen, Chris Tillman, Brian Matsuz, Jake Arrieta and Brandon Erbe the Orioles seem to have a fine crop of young pitchers either already in the MLB or reasonably close to it. Do you think Bergesen can duplicate the success that he had in '09? Will Tillman and Matsuz be breaking camp with the club? Will Arrieta and Erbe contribute this season?

DM: I think Bergesen can largely duplicate his success - getting groundballs and limiting free passes - but I doubt he posts another ERA that low (3.43). He's more of a mid-rotation starter to me, which is less glamorous but certainly still valuable. Matusz will definitely break camp with the club, and might already be the team's best starter (and if not now, then by the end of the year). Tillman will start out the season in the minors - he still needs to work on a few things (more K’s, fewer BB and HR) - with David Hernandez getting the 5th starter spot, but he'll be up before too long and should get plenty of innings in the majors. Arrieta and Erbe might see a cup of coffee at the end of the year, but I don't expect them to really contribute unless there is a big wave of injuries to the first 7-8 guys on the depth chart.

FY: With all this young talent, when should we Yankee fans start to worry about the O's becoming a legitimate threat in the division?

DM: Not this season - or maybe even next - but by 2012 I do expect the O's to be contending with the Yankees (and Red Sox and Rays, and maybe Blue Jays, depending on how quickly they can turn things around). If the Yankees get old quickly and the free agent well starts to run a little dry, then Baltimore might be in a pretty good position to capitalize on it. It's a very tough division though.

FY: What are your feelings on the return of Miguel Tejada? What have you heard about his defensive transition to third base? Does he deserve to be hitting cleanup? What are the chances Josh Bell sees some playing time at the hot corner this year?

DM: I like Tejada, so it's nice to see him back. The contract wasn't bad, and the only reason I didn't think the deal made sense was because it pushed Garrett Atkins to first-base (where he's especially overpaid). He's made 5 errors at third this Spring, but I think he'll adjust relatively well to the position and be average to only a little below. He shouldn't be batting clean-up, since he's maybe the team's 7th best hitter at this point and so should be further down in the line-up. Bell - like Arrieta and Erbe - will probably make an appearance later in the year, but everything I've heard leads me to believe that Miggy is the team's third-baseman for 2010.

FY: And lastly, can you list off the order you think the AL East will finish in this season?

DM: Yankees, Red Sox (Wild Card), Rays ... gap... Orioles, Blue Jays. The top three should be pretty close though.

FY: Daniel, thanks for your time.

As Good As It Gets

The photo of Chien Ming Wang above was taken on June 15th , 2008, just before he stepped into the batter's box against Roy Oswalt in the fifth inning. With men on first and second, Wang squared to bunt and laid it on the ground in front of Oswalt, who threw Jorge Posada out at third base for the second out of the inning. Wang took his place on first after the unsuccessful sacrifice.

Comfortably the best pitcher in the Yankees' starting rotation to that point, Wang had cruised through the Astros line-up that Sunday afternoon, having not allowed a run in 5 innings and the Yanks sat atop a comfortable 3-0 lead. The win they would notch later in the day would bring them to 4 games over .500, their high water mark on the season at the time.

Next up was Johnny Damon who hit a grounder towards Miguel Tejada at short. Wang, not the fastest of runners, would have been out comfortably at second, but Tejada mishandled the ball and everyone was safe. This in turn brought up Derek Jeter, who hit what might have been the costliest three run single in Yankee history. Cano scored easily on the play, but as he rounded third base, Wang came up limping and the rest was history. They were tack-on runs in what turned out to be a 13-0 blowout and it probably wouldn't have happened if Miguel Tejada had fielded Damon's ball cleanly.

The Lisfranc injury sustained by the sinkerballer not only struck a huge blow to the Yankees chances of making the playoffs in 2008, but has seemingly since submarined his career.

When I look at the picture above, I think about the scene they have in a lot of movies, where things reach an obvious high point and the characters are blissfully unaware of the demise that is sure to follow. Like in Casino where Ace and Ginger are cutting the cake at their wedding. Everything is wonderful until Ginger sneaks out during the reception to call her old pimp of a boyfriend, Lester Diamond, from a pay phone in the hallway. Similar to Blow where they buy the house in Mexico and everyone jumps in the pool right before George gets knocked for the first time. Or during the The Beach when they take a photo of everyone jumping in the air at the same time to symbolize how perfect and in-sync everything is. Of course when the three Swedish guys get attacked by sharks shortly thereafter, their little utopia dissolves quite quickly.

I'm not trying to say that Wang's wife is going to drive her Mercedes up on the lawn and steal the key to the safe deposit box. He won't serve any prison time. I don't think the Yankees are going to make him stand guard on the edge of the island waiting for the tourists who he gave a copy of the map to, only to watch them gunned down by marijuana farmers protecting their crops.

I do however, think that picture represents a freezeframe of the high water mark of Wang's career and that makes me really sad. The guy was an extremely valuable and inexpensive part of the Yankees for parts of 4 seasons and over 600 innings pitched. He has the support of an entire country. Now he's a guy with no clear role and a 14.34 ERA who can't catch a break.

Baseball can be a cruel game sometimes, can't it? Damn you Miguel Tejada!

Another SS Bites The Dust

Miguel Tejada has been charged with lying to Congress about steroids, the latest baseball player to get caught up in an extensive web of cheating and juicing that has stained the sport. He is scheduled to appear in court Wednesday and expected to plead guilty. The charges against Tejada, who currently plays for the Houston Astros, were outlined in documents filed in Washington federal court on Tuesday.

Remember the Golden Age of Shortstops? Who was the best shortstop out of the group? Jeter, A-Rod, Nomar, or Tejada? Were they the best shortstops ever?

If you have not been hiding in the caves of Afghanistan or in the tribal lands of Pakistan with Osama bin Laden the past few days, you would know that A-Rod, following Selena Roberts' story about him being one of the 104 on the "anonymous" positive test list, admitted his steroid use from 2001-2003 when he was playing shortstop for the Texas Rangers.

Nomah has been linked to steroids, but was not in the Mitchell Report--perhaps because the report was a sham and left out any Red Sox player due to Mitchell's conspicuous allegiances. Garciaparra has been injured often and his skills/numbers has declined since the advent of steroid testing in 2005.

That leaves Jeter. Jeter has not been linked to steroids--whether it be in the Mitchell Report or in casual fan conversation. Given the fact that his father Dr. Charles Jeter, whom he is very close to, is a former substance abuse counselor, I would doubt that he would ever take them. He is pretty lean and there has never been a drastic change in his physical appearance. He is also not a home run hitter (although Alex Sanchez with his 6 career HR was busted and suspended for 10 games in 2005).

Do Jeter's accomplishments, presumably without the use of steroids, make him the best shortstop out of this quartet? How about the greatest shortstop ever? Just some food for thought...