Thursday Morning Linkarooski

As we mentioned a couple of times yesterday, Jay-Z and Eminem were slated to show up in the Yankees' broadcast booth during the second half of the doubleheader, and turned out that they were on air during the only inning during which Phil Hughes' had any trouble - the fourth.

The two renegades were there to announce two shows that they are playing in September - one at Comerica on the 2nd and the other at Yankee Stadium on the 13th. Appropriately, Jay-Z will headline the show in New York - the first concert at the new place and his first show in a stadium anywhere - and Eminem will take top billing for the one in Detroit.

During their time in the booth, Michael Kay said Eminem's new song "Not Afraid" was only the second ever to debut at #1 on the Billboard charts. Um, it's the 16th. No one batted an eyelash at that and surprisingly, the most awkward moment belonged to Ken Singleton. Kenny had apparently been told that Eminem did "poetry" nearby the current location of Comerica Park "back in the day". Em's response, "Um, Poetry?"

Jay-Z attempted to steer the conversation back on track by clarifying that "Rap is poetry" and they eventually changed the subject.

Other highlights:

• Jay-Z bragged about getting Betty White's number when he met her on Saturday Night Live and said he and Eminem were going on a double date with her and "the othah one". Michael Kay then clarified it was Rue McClanahan he was talking about and Eminem said they actually had to get going and meet up with them.
  
  
• Em said that, in light of what they did in the draft, he can't remember the last time he's felt this good about the Detroit Lions, which is not saying all that much.
  
  
• He then sabotaged any and all of his credibility by saying he was also a Cowboys fan.
  
  
• Michael Kay referred to "Lose Yourself" as "one of the best songs ever" and claimed that he works out to it and it was the reason that "he's the shape he's in",
  

Like any other guest appearance it totally detracted from what was going on in the game, but as far as these promotional things are concerned, it wasn't that bad. Fortunately, the first time around I was watching without any sound and it didn't make a difference at all.

Now, onto the rest of the links:

Andy Pettitte wanted to pitch yesterday but he still has to throw one more "downhill" session (off a mound) before he can rejoin the rotation.

After six long weeks languishing in the top 5, the Yankees have finally ascended #1 of the Beyond the Box Score power rankings, which are based solely on the team's statistical output this year. Incredibly, the Red Sox, whose Pythagorean winning percentage is a humble .484, have played like the fourth best team in the league, according to BtB.

Via Lisa at Subway Squawkers, here is a ranking of the Yankees' warm up jackets over the years. I like the ones that say "Yankees" across the front as opposed to the ones with the interlocking NY, but I've always felt that wearing a warm up jacket out with casual clothes looks kind of weird.

On the heels of the AP story about teams scouting umpires that we linked to on Tuesday, Jeremy Greenhouse of Baseball Analysts attempted find evidence of pitchers altering their approach based on who was behind the plate.

Navin Vaswami's road trip swung through Chicago this week, first stopping at Wrigley and then the Cell. You can also check out the photo album from his trip right here.

Big League Stew has the video of Dallas Braden's appearance on Letterman, including the top 10 thoughts that were going through his mind when he was pitching on Sunday. Carig has the transcription of that list.

The Wall Street Journal's sports section hasn't been around for very long but they are already cranking out crusty and nostalgic pieces like this one about the good ol' days when batters didn't dare step out of the box, lest Bob Gibson fire one at their head.

Via the Book Blog, here is an incredibly deep analysis of wind effects on baseball parks.

The greatest thing about being rich and famous? People give you shit for free. Reminds me of the end of this Louis CK bit.

Via Jonah, this tumblr site is sheer brilliance. Similarly, so is this shirt.

Also from Mr. Keri, Bloomberg Sports has upped the ante with Mustrash Talk, a series of videos of Keith Hernandez giving you the business about the goings on in your fantasy league.

At Walkoff Walk, Dan McQuade notes that if the Phillies aren't duplicating the oldest trick in the book by stealing signs with binoculars and the bullpen phone, it's pretty damn close. Meech from the Fightins' found visual evidence that the Phils' bullpen coach does indeed have "opera glasses".

What do Mike Sweeney and Carmello Anthony have in common? Neither tolerates snitchin'.

The "10th inning" of Ken Burns' Baseball is scheduled to air late this September.

An interesting tidbit about the upcoming season of It's Always Sunny In Philadelphia.

Did you know that you can get a DWI on a golf cart? Thankfully there aren't very many cops patrolling the links or we'd all be screwed.

Could the Super Bowl be coming to New York in 2014? The wheels are in motion.

They found a hole in space. Whaaaa? Wrap your head around that one without it exploding.

Amidst all the action yesterday, we neglected to wish Yogi Berra a happy birthday. Happy belated 85th, Yogi, and many more.

Fun With Shutdowns and Meltdowns

Based on a conversation which originated at Beyond the Boxscore and continued over at The Book blog, FanGraphs created two new stats for relief pitchers based on WPA. Fortunately there are no intimidating acronyms. The positive one is "Shutdowns (SD)" and the negative one is "Meltdowns (MD)". I think everyone can understand that.

The Yankees are tied for the fewest meltdowns in the MLB with 8 but they've also had the second fewest appearances by relievers this year primarily due to the length their starting pitchers have provided for them. Yankee starters are averaging 6 1/3 IP per start and on nights when Javy Vazquez isn't pitching that number jumps over 6 2/3.

Looking at it another way, the Yankees' ratio of meltdowns to shutdowns is better than 1:2, which is good for 7th best in the league. Without getting my hands too dirty, that seems like a pretty good way to rank the performance of team's bullpens so far this season. When sorted by meltdowns/shutdowns, the teams fall out into three distinct tiers.

Tier 1: These teams all have a better than 2:1 shutdown to meltdown ratio. Most of them have an ERA better than league average with the exception of the Tigers (13th), Nationals (18th) and Pirates (dead last).

(The columns next to ERA and MD/SD are the

team's league-wide ranks in those categories)

What's apparently right away is that there is a decent general correlation to ERA but some extreme outliers (likely due to the fact that it's still early in the season).

The Tigers have a bullpen ERA that is slightly higher than league average but still have the best MD/SD in the MLB. Detroit has converted 80% of their saves (tied for 4th best in the league) which is a good indication that they have been getting the job done when it matters but giving up a lot of runs in low leverage situations. The Nationals are in the same boat with a bad ERA (19th), high SV% (11/13) and a solid MD/SD (5th). The Pirates are an interesting case, as their ERA is clearly inflated by having eight losses by seven runs or more, including two games they lost to the Brewers by a combined 33 runs. Those big losses have essentially no effect on WPA after a certain point but are given equal weight in ERA.

Tier 2: All of these teams have between a 1:2 and 3:4 MD/SD ratio.

The Reds have the fourth most relief appearances in the league so it makes sense that they have the most shutdowns with 33 and are in the top 5 for meltdowns with 18. They might have a good ratio but their ERA is indicative of the fact that their 'pen is over-taxed. Paging Aroldis Chapman. The Red Sox are in a similar situation with fewer shutdowns but a lower ERA. The Mariners are the only team in this cluster with an ERA in the top 1/3 of the league.

Tier 3: The final tier consists of teams who have more than 3 meltdowns for every four shutdowns. Four of them - the Cubs, Dodgers, Giants and Royals - have more MDs than SDs.

Incredibly, the Giants, who are leading the league in bullpen ERA, have only 10 shutdowns (last in the MLB) and are second to last in terms of their MD/SD ratio.

Clearly, over the course of the season, teams like the Giants and Tigers are going to see their ERA and MD/SD ranks converge on each other. The Giants will get some good performances from their relievers when it matters and the Tigers will see their guys give up some runs when it counts too.

Neither ERA nor MDs and SDs are perfect ways of measuring reliever's contributions but each brings their own unique perspective. And when combined with or contrasted against each other they have a way of teasing out information that we might not have known before. It should be interesting to keep on eye on these stats as the season goes forward and FanGraphs includes them on the player pages.

AL East Q&A: Daniel Moroz Talks O's

Next up in our AL East Q&A series, we are pleased to welcome one of the best Orioles bloggers on any of the intertubes.

Daniel Moroz is the proprietor of Camden Crazies and a contributor to the excellent Beyond the Box Score. For a sampling of his sabermetric chops, take a look at the five part series (1, 2, 3, 4, 5) that he did exploring Nick Markakis' drop in walks last year. Daniel is also the man behind the sensational Matt Wieters Facts. Please give him your undivided attention.

Fack Youk: Is it true that saying Matt Wieters is perfect would underestimate his abilities?

Daniel Moroz: One of the more amusing parts of the Matt Wieters Facts phenomena has been that my analysis of his actual performance hasn't been all that complementary. He did well – for a catcher - last year, but I don't think he's going to be a dominant force quite yet. I was expecting him to walk a little more than he did in 2009, though (not that it means much) he has been doing that this Spring. An above average bat in 2010 may not make Wieters an MVP candidate, but it should make him one of the better catchers in baseball already - with plenty of room for more development in the coming years.

FY: Aside from Wieters, what young position player on the O's do you have the most hope for going forward? Is it Adam Jones? Nick Markakis? Nolan Reimold?

DM: I have the most hope for Markakis, because we've seen him play at an elite level before with his .306/.406/.491 line from 2008. If he can return to that echelon - largely by getting his walk rate back up - then that would really help the offense. I don't know that Adam Jones can reach those levels with the bat because of his less than stellar plate discipline, but a .300/.375/.500 peak with plus defense in center-field would also be very valuable. Reimold I'm not quite as high on - though I was one of his biggest fans as he was coming up through the minors - as I think he's more of a role player (above average bat, but average to below defense in an outfield corner - average player overall) in the Luke Scott mold than a star. Honestly, I might have more hopes for Felix Pie, who is already a very good defensive outfielder and who could become an above average player if he improves at the plate.

FY: With Brad Bergesen, Chris Tillman, Brian Matsuz, Jake Arrieta and Brandon Erbe the Orioles seem to have a fine crop of young pitchers either already in the MLB or reasonably close to it. Do you think Bergesen can duplicate the success that he had in '09? Will Tillman and Matsuz be breaking camp with the club? Will Arrieta and Erbe contribute this season?

DM: I think Bergesen can largely duplicate his success - getting groundballs and limiting free passes - but I doubt he posts another ERA that low (3.43). He's more of a mid-rotation starter to me, which is less glamorous but certainly still valuable. Matusz will definitely break camp with the club, and might already be the team's best starter (and if not now, then by the end of the year). Tillman will start out the season in the minors - he still needs to work on a few things (more K’s, fewer BB and HR) - with David Hernandez getting the 5th starter spot, but he'll be up before too long and should get plenty of innings in the majors. Arrieta and Erbe might see a cup of coffee at the end of the year, but I don't expect them to really contribute unless there is a big wave of injuries to the first 7-8 guys on the depth chart.

FY: With all this young talent, when should we Yankee fans start to worry about the O's becoming a legitimate threat in the division?

DM: Not this season - or maybe even next - but by 2012 I do expect the O's to be contending with the Yankees (and Red Sox and Rays, and maybe Blue Jays, depending on how quickly they can turn things around). If the Yankees get old quickly and the free agent well starts to run a little dry, then Baltimore might be in a pretty good position to capitalize on it. It's a very tough division though.

FY: What are your feelings on the return of Miguel Tejada? What have you heard about his defensive transition to third base? Does he deserve to be hitting cleanup? What are the chances Josh Bell sees some playing time at the hot corner this year?

DM: I like Tejada, so it's nice to see him back. The contract wasn't bad, and the only reason I didn't think the deal made sense was because it pushed Garrett Atkins to first-base (where he's especially overpaid). He's made 5 errors at third this Spring, but I think he'll adjust relatively well to the position and be average to only a little below. He shouldn't be batting clean-up, since he's maybe the team's 7th best hitter at this point and so should be further down in the line-up. Bell - like Arrieta and Erbe - will probably make an appearance later in the year, but everything I've heard leads me to believe that Miggy is the team's third-baseman for 2010.

FY: And lastly, can you list off the order you think the AL East will finish in this season?

DM: Yankees, Red Sox (Wild Card), Rays ... gap... Orioles, Blue Jays. The top three should be pretty close though.

FY: Daniel, thanks for your time.

Friday Morning Link Party

This has been by far the slowest week of the offseason around these parts with a slow drip of news and a heavy dose of manual labor keeping me away from my computer. Things will get better soon as we will be dusting off our Countdown to Spring Training via uniform number starting tomorrow morning and running every day through February 16th. The Yanks hurlers and backstops report on the 17th, giving us 26 days and counting until Spring Training begins.

For now, here are some links to propel you towards the weekend.

Our buddy Jason lays out an exhaustive rubric you can use to determine whether you are "new school" or "old school" in your tastes as a baseball fan. I'm somewhere in the middle because I have the most respect for the great players who aren't demonstrative but understand that amount of money that guys are making has changed a lot of aspects of the game.

Javier Vazquez told a Spanish language newspaper in his native Puerto Rico that he doesn't know how much longer he wants to play and might be willing to go year to year with his contracts a la Andy Pettitte. Or at least that's what I'm told. Me Espanol es muy mal. And before you go off the deep end like this guy about it, remember that Pettitte doesn't seem to have lost any of his "desire" over the past couple of years.

Minor league guru John Sickels has some very nice things to say about Jesus Montero. He released them in the hopes that they might get you to buy his book but that doesn't make them any less true. I hope.

The Royals signed Rick Ankiel for $3.25M with a $6M mutual option for next year. Stop it. It's not funny. Okay, it's pretty funny.

If you were wondering why Jason Bay didn't re-sign with the Red Sox, here's why.

Bruce Markusen from the Hardball Times (and Bronx Banter) lists off some of today's best baseball nicknames and then goes back in history position but position to find the all-time greats.

Patrick Sullivan at Baseball Analysts demonstrates to Murray Chass how someone's opinion can matter even if they don't have a Hall of Fame vote.

Beyond the Box Score is continuing their effort to honor the best in statistically-slanted baseball writing with the BtB Sabermetric Awards. There are seven categories to vote on which are sure to contain excellent pieces of analytical baseball thinking that you were not aware of.

Larry from Wezen-Ball earned himself a radio interview as a result of his widely acclaimed Charlie Brown baseball posts. His plot to take over the world continued yesterday with the official release of his iPhone/Android app.

In case you were wondering, Hideki Irabu still retired. For real this time.

And finally a bit of fun non-baseball reading. Joe Posnanski picks apart a bunch of infomercials for your entertainment.

We'll be back with more before the day is done.