Game 60: Get Up Jake

Now that we've reached the stage of the season where clubs can promote minor leaguers without having to worry about them being eligible for Super Two status, this year has really begun tp produce a bumper crop of top prospect debuts in the MLB.

Jason Heyward began his career as an Atlanta Brave with a bang at the beginning of the season and Ike Davis was called up when the Mets were struggling in mid-April. More recently, we've seen the debuts of Steven Strasburg, former Yankee farmhand Jose Tabata, fellow Pirate Brad Lincoln, and Mike Stanton (who is not related to the former Yankee reliever) to name a few. Still on the horizon are promising youngsters like the awesomely-named Carlos Santana - a catcher in the Indians' system, outfielders Domonic Brown of the Phillies and Desmond Jennings of the Rays, Scott Boras' Pittsburgh's Pedro Alvarez and Kyle Drabek - now property of the Blue Jays - who was the centerpiece of the Roy Halladay deal. Even these players experience a higher than expected rate of attrition, there's a good chance that we'll look back at this class of rookies as one of the best in the ten or fifteen years surrounding it.

Tonight, a highly-regarded Baltimore prospect will make his debut, but given the performance that happened just two days ago and forty miles down I-95, this one will seem considerably more subdued.

Jake Arietta was a fifth round pick in the 2007 draft but didn't begin his ascent through the minor leagues until the 2008 season. He debuted at High-A ball and struck out 120 batters in 113 1/3 innings while maintaining an ERA of 2.87. Last season, started with the AA Bowie Baysox, pitched 59 strong innings over 11 starts there and was promoted to AAA. While in Norfolk, Arrieta's strikeout rate dropped and his ERA rose, but was still respectable in his 92 innings there, tallying an ERA of 3.92 and a K/BB ratio comfortably over 2.

The twenty four year old right hander broke camp with the Triple-A squad this year and got off to a great start. Although his strikeout and walk rates aren't as strong as they were in the lower levels of the minors, they are better than they were at the same level last year and Arrieta has an ERA of just 1.85 through 11 starts. He has been more or less unhittable so far, surrendering fewer than six hits per nine innings and allowing only three homers in 73 IP.

In the past two years, the Orioles have seen more than their fair share of pitching prospects make their Major League debuts. Brad Bergesen first appeared in the Big Leagues April 21st of 2009, the less-celebrated-but-still-young David Hernandez joined the club May 28th, last night's pitcher Chris Tillman was called up at the end of last July, Brain Matusz made his debut six days later. Tonight, Arrieta will get his shot.

When we talked to Orioles fan and blogger Daniel Moroz before the season began, he surmised that barring a number of injuries, Arrieta wouldn't see more than a cup of coffee this season. Koji Uehara, who began the rotation, is on the DL and Hernandez, who has been ineffective in his eight starts, has been relegated to the bullpen. Those two moves, along with Arrieta's dominance and the O's futility, created Jake's chance to be called up.

It might not be occurring under the greatest of circumstances and it might not pay dividends immediately, but tonight should be a bit of a silver lining for Orioles fans, if such a thing can be found in one of their worst stretches in one of their worst seasons in franchise history.

Get up Jake, it's late in the mornin',
The rain is pourin' and we got work to do.
Get up Jake, there's no need a-lyin',
You tell me that you're dyin', but I know it's not true.

Now, me and Jake, we work down on the river,
on the ferry "Baltimore".
And when Jake don't rise up in the mornin',

People lined up along the shore.

[Song Notes: I've been a fan of this tune for a long time and it was the first thing I thought of when I heard Arrieta was going to be starting tonight. The lyrics don't line up perfectly, but the kid's name is Jake, "Baltimore" and "lined up" are in the song and that's good enough for our purposes. If only there was someone named Dan from Savannah on the Yankees, it would have really sealed the deal.

I had to upload the version from To Kingdom Come because the only "video" on YouTube kind of sucks.]

-Lineups-

Yankees:

Brett Gardner is once again out of the lineup; Marcus Thames gets the start in left field tonight. Pray for lots of groundballs and strike outs. Francisco Cervelli gets the finale off, with Chad Moeller getting the start against his former team.

Derek Jeter SS
Nick Swisher RF
Mark Teixeira 1B
Alex Rodriguez 3B
Robinson Cano 2B
Jorge Posada DH
Curtis Granderson CF
Marcus Thames LF
Chad Moeller C

RHP A.J. Burnett

Orioles:

Corey Patterson LF
Miguel Tejada 3B
Nick Markakis RF
Ty Wigginton 1B
Luke Scott LF
Adam Jones CF
Matt Wieters C
Scott Moore 2B
Cesar Izturis SS

RHP Jake Arrieta

Prediction Round Up

There isn't a whole lot of variety in these, but I wanted to consolidate the predictions that we asked everyone to make at the end of the AL East interviews we did this week.

Here are the interviews with our fantastic guests:

Jonah Keri on the Rays

Daniel Moroz on the Orioles

Patrick Sullivan on the Red Sox

Drunk Jays Fans on the Blue Jays

And everyone's predictions in graphical from, including Matt's and mine:

There you have it folks. According to our panel of experts, there is a 100% chance that the Yankees win the AL East this season!

Actually, that's not what it means at all. You can't divine overall probabilities based on individual predictions (in this scenario at least). For instance, let's say that we are going to flip a coin that has a 60% chance of coming up heads and a 40% chance of landing on tails. Which one are you going to pick? Well everyone that's not a moron is going to pick heads. As a result, you'd end up with something like 95% of people choosing heads with the remainder of the superstitious dummies telling themselves that "tails never fails". And that doesn't reflect the actual probability of the event. It's the kind of thing that happens when you have some rational people looking at similar data.

Realistically, what this means is that the Yanks are in the neighborhood of 50-45-40%, the Sox are 35-30-25% and the Rays are 30-25-20%. Or something? I don't know but the midpoints sum to 100 and that sounds about right. Take it from me, I predicted the correct order that the AL East would finish in last year and had every team's total within 5 wins. (What's that you say? I also had the Mets playing the Cubs in the NLCS? Nevermind that.)

Anyway, that's it for today. We'll have some good stuff running over the weekend, so in the unlikely event that you need a break from the awesome weather that is forecasted for the northeast, we'll be there for you.

AL East Q&A: Daniel Moroz Talks O's

Next up in our AL East Q&A series, we are pleased to welcome one of the best Orioles bloggers on any of the intertubes.

Daniel Moroz is the proprietor of Camden Crazies and a contributor to the excellent Beyond the Box Score. For a sampling of his sabermetric chops, take a look at the five part series (1, 2, 3, 4, 5) that he did exploring Nick Markakis' drop in walks last year. Daniel is also the man behind the sensational Matt Wieters Facts. Please give him your undivided attention.

Fack Youk: Is it true that saying Matt Wieters is perfect would underestimate his abilities?

Daniel Moroz: One of the more amusing parts of the Matt Wieters Facts phenomena has been that my analysis of his actual performance hasn't been all that complementary. He did well – for a catcher - last year, but I don't think he's going to be a dominant force quite yet. I was expecting him to walk a little more than he did in 2009, though (not that it means much) he has been doing that this Spring. An above average bat in 2010 may not make Wieters an MVP candidate, but it should make him one of the better catchers in baseball already - with plenty of room for more development in the coming years.

FY: Aside from Wieters, what young position player on the O's do you have the most hope for going forward? Is it Adam Jones? Nick Markakis? Nolan Reimold?

DM: I have the most hope for Markakis, because we've seen him play at an elite level before with his .306/.406/.491 line from 2008. If he can return to that echelon - largely by getting his walk rate back up - then that would really help the offense. I don't know that Adam Jones can reach those levels with the bat because of his less than stellar plate discipline, but a .300/.375/.500 peak with plus defense in center-field would also be very valuable. Reimold I'm not quite as high on - though I was one of his biggest fans as he was coming up through the minors - as I think he's more of a role player (above average bat, but average to below defense in an outfield corner - average player overall) in the Luke Scott mold than a star. Honestly, I might have more hopes for Felix Pie, who is already a very good defensive outfielder and who could become an above average player if he improves at the plate.

FY: With Brad Bergesen, Chris Tillman, Brian Matsuz, Jake Arrieta and Brandon Erbe the Orioles seem to have a fine crop of young pitchers either already in the MLB or reasonably close to it. Do you think Bergesen can duplicate the success that he had in '09? Will Tillman and Matsuz be breaking camp with the club? Will Arrieta and Erbe contribute this season?

DM: I think Bergesen can largely duplicate his success - getting groundballs and limiting free passes - but I doubt he posts another ERA that low (3.43). He's more of a mid-rotation starter to me, which is less glamorous but certainly still valuable. Matusz will definitely break camp with the club, and might already be the team's best starter (and if not now, then by the end of the year). Tillman will start out the season in the minors - he still needs to work on a few things (more K’s, fewer BB and HR) - with David Hernandez getting the 5th starter spot, but he'll be up before too long and should get plenty of innings in the majors. Arrieta and Erbe might see a cup of coffee at the end of the year, but I don't expect them to really contribute unless there is a big wave of injuries to the first 7-8 guys on the depth chart.

FY: With all this young talent, when should we Yankee fans start to worry about the O's becoming a legitimate threat in the division?

DM: Not this season - or maybe even next - but by 2012 I do expect the O's to be contending with the Yankees (and Red Sox and Rays, and maybe Blue Jays, depending on how quickly they can turn things around). If the Yankees get old quickly and the free agent well starts to run a little dry, then Baltimore might be in a pretty good position to capitalize on it. It's a very tough division though.

FY: What are your feelings on the return of Miguel Tejada? What have you heard about his defensive transition to third base? Does he deserve to be hitting cleanup? What are the chances Josh Bell sees some playing time at the hot corner this year?

DM: I like Tejada, so it's nice to see him back. The contract wasn't bad, and the only reason I didn't think the deal made sense was because it pushed Garrett Atkins to first-base (where he's especially overpaid). He's made 5 errors at third this Spring, but I think he'll adjust relatively well to the position and be average to only a little below. He shouldn't be batting clean-up, since he's maybe the team's 7th best hitter at this point and so should be further down in the line-up. Bell - like Arrieta and Erbe - will probably make an appearance later in the year, but everything I've heard leads me to believe that Miggy is the team's third-baseman for 2010.

FY: And lastly, can you list off the order you think the AL East will finish in this season?

DM: Yankees, Red Sox (Wild Card), Rays ... gap... Orioles, Blue Jays. The top three should be pretty close though.

FY: Daniel, thanks for your time.