Trembely's Time?

Rise and shine, Fackers. According to the Baltimore Sun, Dave Trembley is going to be fired before today's game. Or perhaps he was already canned when the team return from New York last night. He was supposedly close to getting axed about a week ago, but that rumor proved to be false. Even if it isn't today, the writing is certainly on the wall.

Directly and indirectly, the Yankees led to Trembley's termination. Their sweep of the O's is likely the last straw and their presence in the AL East - the Yanks were 36-15 against Baltimore in his tenure - made their quest for a respectable season much more difficult.

The O's are obviously having a dismal 2010. Thanks to a couple of blown saves, they got off to a 1-11 start and have only improved upon that marginally since. They are now 15-39, which puts them a whopping 21 games behind the Rays one-third of the way through the season. In theory, they are playing roughly at the pace you would expect a team comprised solely of replacement level players to perform. And their run differential only says that they should be two games better than they are.

You have to imagine - for a marginal team in a division as tough as the AL East - the players knew their season was over before it had even really started. The fans knew it too, because they set a record for the fewest number of people at Camden Yards when the team was just 1-5 and came very close to topping bottoming that twice against the Royals in May.

These guys are professionals, but when it's obvious that your season is completely fucked and the only time people show up to see if is when the Yankees or Red Sox are in town, it's gotta be tough. Tough to grind out at bats as a hitter when you are down by right runs like they were on Wednesday. It has to be demoralizing for a starting pitcher like Brian Matusz who pitched a hell of a game on Tuesday only to get tagged with the loss because of an unforced throwing error. The YES cameras panned to him for a reaction but he had already vanished down the dugout steps.

Of course, only so much of this is Trembley's fault. I don't know how big his family is, but there isn't much he can do to fill the stands. He didn't injure Brian Roberts, Koji Uehara, Felix Pie, Jim Johnson or Mike Gonzalez. He definitely didn't blow all of those saves in the beginning of the year. Perhaps he bears some responsibility for the fact that the Orioles don't appear to be playing to the level they are capable of - that he "lost" the team - but I don't know if there is a manager out there who could have kept this team from spiraling out of control after those tough losses and subsequent brutal start.

While Trembley's 187-282 record during his time with the team isn't impressive, the fact that he got the job in the first place certainly is. When Sam Perlazzo got fired 69 games into the 2007 season, Trembley was promoted from bullpen coach to interim manager. He never played the game professionally and instead comes from a more academic background (he has a masters in Education and did graduate work in Sports Psychology), but Andy MacPhail, who had recently taken over as the president of baseball operations, gave him a chance anyway. The team started off 20-14 under the new skipper, he kept his job until the end of the year and finally lost the "interim" part of his title over the winter.

Trembley more than paid his dues, managing for 20 years in the minor leagues before joining the Big League club, so that was one of the reasons that Andy McPhail thought it would be good idea to allow him to oversee a couple of rebuilding seasons. It didn't quite go as planned and in a year when the O's were supposed to take a big step forward and possibly flirt with .500, they took an even bigger one backwards and are on pace for one of the worst seasons in a very long time.

Perhaps third base coach Juan Samuel - who did play in the Majors for 16 seasons - or whoever else takes over the team when Trembley is ultimately whacked will have better results. But it will probably be because some of those five guys on the DL come back from injuries, Matt Wieters, Adam Jones and Miguel Tejada start hitting and Matusz and Brad Bergensen start pitching to their potential.

Given how his tenure with the O's went, it's tough to see Trembley landing another Major League managerial gig, but at least he can say he got a shot and made the most out of it. From a distance, he seems like a stand up baseball man and hopefully he lands on his feet somewhere.

Game 26: It Hurts Me Too

After the Yankees beat the Orioles 4-1 last night on the back of 8 strong innings from CC Sabathia, A.J. Burnett looks to pick up his second win against the Birds in as many starts as well. Like last Thursday, he'll again be facing Brian Matusz.

The young left hander didn't pitch poorly last time against the Yanks but three runs over six innings wasn't nearly good enough against Burnett. Matusz didn't walk anyone but he allowed nine hits and only struck out two. Derek Jeter, Robinson Cano and Marcus Thames accounted for six of those hits and all three of the runs scored.

On the other side of the ball, Burnett allowed just four baserunners over 8 shutout innings. After the game, he attributed the success he's enjoyed so far this season to being able to pitch to both sides of the plate with movement and trying to "just let them hit the ball". That new approach has paid serious dividends thus far as he's 3-0 in his first 5 starts with a 2.43 ERA. His FIP at 3.37 is higher due to a higher LOB% and a dearth of strikeouts but is still quite good. His xFIP of 4.33 suggests that his faith in his defense has been based on batted balls ending up in the right places, but still is about league average.

A.J. might not be so lucky tonight as he has a depleted defensive outfield with Marcus Thames getting the start in left as Brett Gardner fills in the the injured Curtis Granderson in center.

Burnett won't be pitching to his newfound battery mate Jorge Posada again tonight either. Last time it was because of the fastball that Jeremy Guthrie hit Posada with the night before and this time it's because of the calf straight that might have been caused in part by the lingering effects on that knee from the previous incident.

If the game is tight towards the end, the Yankees might not have their closer available either. The "flank" strain that Mariano Rivera first felt on Saturday has been getting better every day according to he and Joe Girardi but they aren't sure if Mo is ready to come back just yet.

After enjoying an April wherein the only real injury on the team was to Chan Ho Park's hamstring, the Yanks are now battling through a spate of bumps are bruises. It's to be expected for a team that has as many older players as the Yankees do and most of the maladies aren't very serious, but it almost seems as if they are contagious as this point.

The original:

Elmore James' version:

The Dead's:

Clapton's:

and Gov't Mule's:

When things go wrong,

Wrong with you,

It hurts me too.

[Song Notes: This tune has been covered far and wide since Tampa Red recorded the first version of it in 1940. Elmore James changed the lyrics somewhat when he put his stamp on it in 1957 and those bear much more resemblance to the other versions posted here than Red's much wordier one. The original also sounds almost like a honky tonk song where are James added the nasty, bluesy slide guitar that countless others including Clapton and Warren Haynes have aimed to duplicate. I personally like the slower pace of the Dead's version but enjoy the tune when almost anyone plays it.]

-Lineups-

Yankees: In addition to Granderson and Posada, Nick Johnson has the night off as well. Nick Swisher takes his place in the two hole as Derek Jeter slides into the DH slot and Ramiro Pena plays short and bats ninth. That's a pretty sorry looking bottom four but the last time one of us complained about a punchless line up, the Yanks scored 12 runs. As we mentioned earlier, Greg Golson is up. Mark Melancon drew the short straw and is on his way back to Scranton.

Derek Jeter DH
Nick Swisher RF
Mark Teixeira 1B
Alex Rodriguez 3B
Robinson Cano 2B
Marcus Thames LF
Brett Gardner CF
Francisco Cervelli C
Ramiro Pena SS

Orioles:

Adam Jones CF
Nick Markakis RF
Matt Wieters C
Miguel Tejada 3B
Ty Wigginton 2B
Luke Scott LF
Garrett Atkins DH
Rhyne Hughes 1B
Cesar Izturis SS

Game 21: Baltimore Todolo

As it stands, the Yankees are 4-4 on their current road trip. They went 3-3 during the West Coast swing, split the first two in the Charm City and will determine if the journey was a winning or losing one based on what happens tonight.

Brain Matusz takes the mound for the Orioles. Selected with the fourth overall pick in the 2008 draft, the 23 year old left hander made his major league debut last year. He faced the Yankees once last September, dominating them in Yankee Stadium to the tune of seven one run innings.

This season, he's pitched in four games and has lasted about six innings and given up three runs in each (give or take a frame or a run) giving him an ERA of 4.38. He's struck out more than one batter per inning and allowed just one home run, so his FIP is a run and a half lower than his ERA.

Matusz isn't overpowering. He throws around 60% fastballs, distributed about equally between his four-seamer and two-seamer, both of which come in around 90mph. His two-seamer rides inside to left handers and away from righties while his four seamer is straighter with a bit of sink. About one out of every 5 pitches is a changeup (in the 83mph area) while one of every 10 is a curveball (about 78mph).

A.J. Burnett gets the call for the Yankees today. Burnett has only allowed one home run so far this year, made possible by a rock bottom HR/FB ratio of 3.8%, compared to his career rate of 10.1%. The other two true outcomes have also come less frequently for A.J. in 2010 as he's walked just 2.8 batters per 9 innings and struck out only 5.7. The only thing he seems to be doing more of than usual is giving up hits (9.9/9IP compared to 7.9).

I'm not one for predictions, but it seems like Burnett is due for a regression-to-the-mean type start. If we went something like 6 innings, gave up two home runs, 4 hits, walked 4 and struck out 8, that would probably do the trick. Hopefully the offense will be there to pick him up.

[Song Notes: The original composition was done by prominent ragtime musician and Baltimore native Eubie Blake all the way back in 1909. The style of piano playing featured in the piece eventually came to be known as "stride", and Eubie was one of the innovators of the technique. Blake was born and raised in Baltimore, but he moved to New York once his career began to take off and lived there until he passed away in Brooklyn at the age of 96. Blake enrolled in NYU when he was in his mid-60's and graduated in 2 1/2 years, frequently appeared on Johnny Carson's and Merv Griffin's shows, was the musical guest on Saturday Night Live, was awarded the Presidential Medal of Freedom by Ronald Regan and had his music and life story adapted into a Broadway show bearing his name.]

-Lineups-

Yankees: No Nick Johnson tonight as Marcus Thames fills in at DH and bats 6th against the lefty Matusz. Nick Swisher bats second in Johnson's place while the struggling Curtis Granderson gets the 7th spot, Francisco Cervelli the 8th and Brett Gardner bats second leadoff (9th).

Jeter SS
Swisher RF
Teixeira 1B
Rodriguez 3B
Cano 2B
Thames DH
Granderson CF
Cervelli C
Gardner LF

Orioles: After going 2 for 4 last night, Garrett Atkins finds himself back riding the pine this evening as the lefty-hitting Rhyne Hughes gets a crack at A.J. Burnett.

Adam Jones CF

Nick Markakis RF

Matt Weiters C

Miguel Tejada 3B

Luke Scott DH

Ty Wigginton 2B

Rhyne Hughes 1B

Nolan Reimold LF

Ceasar Izturis SS

AL East Q&A: Daniel Moroz Talks O's

Next up in our AL East Q&A series, we are pleased to welcome one of the best Orioles bloggers on any of the intertubes.

Daniel Moroz is the proprietor of Camden Crazies and a contributor to the excellent Beyond the Box Score. For a sampling of his sabermetric chops, take a look at the five part series (1, 2, 3, 4, 5) that he did exploring Nick Markakis' drop in walks last year. Daniel is also the man behind the sensational Matt Wieters Facts. Please give him your undivided attention.

Fack Youk: Is it true that saying Matt Wieters is perfect would underestimate his abilities?

Daniel Moroz: One of the more amusing parts of the Matt Wieters Facts phenomena has been that my analysis of his actual performance hasn't been all that complementary. He did well – for a catcher - last year, but I don't think he's going to be a dominant force quite yet. I was expecting him to walk a little more than he did in 2009, though (not that it means much) he has been doing that this Spring. An above average bat in 2010 may not make Wieters an MVP candidate, but it should make him one of the better catchers in baseball already - with plenty of room for more development in the coming years.

FY: Aside from Wieters, what young position player on the O's do you have the most hope for going forward? Is it Adam Jones? Nick Markakis? Nolan Reimold?

DM: I have the most hope for Markakis, because we've seen him play at an elite level before with his .306/.406/.491 line from 2008. If he can return to that echelon - largely by getting his walk rate back up - then that would really help the offense. I don't know that Adam Jones can reach those levels with the bat because of his less than stellar plate discipline, but a .300/.375/.500 peak with plus defense in center-field would also be very valuable. Reimold I'm not quite as high on - though I was one of his biggest fans as he was coming up through the minors - as I think he's more of a role player (above average bat, but average to below defense in an outfield corner - average player overall) in the Luke Scott mold than a star. Honestly, I might have more hopes for Felix Pie, who is already a very good defensive outfielder and who could become an above average player if he improves at the plate.

FY: With Brad Bergesen, Chris Tillman, Brian Matsuz, Jake Arrieta and Brandon Erbe the Orioles seem to have a fine crop of young pitchers either already in the MLB or reasonably close to it. Do you think Bergesen can duplicate the success that he had in '09? Will Tillman and Matsuz be breaking camp with the club? Will Arrieta and Erbe contribute this season?

DM: I think Bergesen can largely duplicate his success - getting groundballs and limiting free passes - but I doubt he posts another ERA that low (3.43). He's more of a mid-rotation starter to me, which is less glamorous but certainly still valuable. Matusz will definitely break camp with the club, and might already be the team's best starter (and if not now, then by the end of the year). Tillman will start out the season in the minors - he still needs to work on a few things (more K’s, fewer BB and HR) - with David Hernandez getting the 5th starter spot, but he'll be up before too long and should get plenty of innings in the majors. Arrieta and Erbe might see a cup of coffee at the end of the year, but I don't expect them to really contribute unless there is a big wave of injuries to the first 7-8 guys on the depth chart.

FY: With all this young talent, when should we Yankee fans start to worry about the O's becoming a legitimate threat in the division?

DM: Not this season - or maybe even next - but by 2012 I do expect the O's to be contending with the Yankees (and Red Sox and Rays, and maybe Blue Jays, depending on how quickly they can turn things around). If the Yankees get old quickly and the free agent well starts to run a little dry, then Baltimore might be in a pretty good position to capitalize on it. It's a very tough division though.

FY: What are your feelings on the return of Miguel Tejada? What have you heard about his defensive transition to third base? Does he deserve to be hitting cleanup? What are the chances Josh Bell sees some playing time at the hot corner this year?

DM: I like Tejada, so it's nice to see him back. The contract wasn't bad, and the only reason I didn't think the deal made sense was because it pushed Garrett Atkins to first-base (where he's especially overpaid). He's made 5 errors at third this Spring, but I think he'll adjust relatively well to the position and be average to only a little below. He shouldn't be batting clean-up, since he's maybe the team's 7th best hitter at this point and so should be further down in the line-up. Bell - like Arrieta and Erbe - will probably make an appearance later in the year, but everything I've heard leads me to believe that Miggy is the team's third-baseman for 2010.

FY: And lastly, can you list off the order you think the AL East will finish in this season?

DM: Yankees, Red Sox (Wild Card), Rays ... gap... Orioles, Blue Jays. The top three should be pretty close though.

FY: Daniel, thanks for your time.

"One Bad Pitch"

That's what A.J. Burnett chalked his poor outing up to. The pitch he was referring to was a 1-2 fastball low but over the center of the plate to Brian Roberts in the second inning that ended up leaving the yard for a grand slam. The problem is that it wasn't just one pitch and this bad start fits in a little too well with his recent string of poor outings to dismiss so conveniently.

Burnett made another mistake on a fastball to the first batter of the 2nd inning, Nolan Reimold, who redirected it to left-center for a solo shot. That pulled the O's even with the run that Derek Jeter scored after singling in the bottom of the first. The bases didn't load themselves for Roberts either, Burnett did that via a walk and two singles. He let up another single to shortstop Robert Andino, surrendering the lead before Roberts even came to the plate.

The six runs that came across in the 2nd were more that enough for Brain Matusz, who kept the Yanks off balance, allowing only 4 hits and 2 walks in 7 innings of one run ball. He only struck out 3 and induced 6 ground balls to 12 flys, but he got the job done in 106 pitches.

Melky Cabrera and Jorge Posada each added an RBI in the ninth inning but the O's walked away with a 7-3 win.

At any rate, as of 7:15PM, the Yanks lead the Red Sox by 8 games and rain is still falling on Fenway Park, delaying the start of their game with the Rays with a double header already looming on Sunday. The Angels are creeping up in the race for homefield advantage though, as they trail the Yanks by only 3 in the loss column.

Game 143: Hey Ninteen

After a late night, things return to normal for the Yankees. Although he'll be setting a new record with every hit that he collects, hype and hoopla surrounding Derek Jeter's ascent up the Yankees all-time hit list will have subsided. The game today won't take on the added feel of importance that has been palpable since the beginning of the homestand, it's just going to feel like another September game against a team that doesn't have anything left to play for.

A.J. Burnett takes the ball today and looks to build upon his last outing. He went six innings and allowed one run against the Rays and with 99 pitches under his belt at the time, might have been asked to go a little deeper had the Yanks not been leading 11-1 at the time.

That outing sprung Burnett from a stretch of 7 starts that brought his ERA up from 3.53 to 4.29 and gave him his first win since July 27th. That span was Burnett's worst of the season, but it had been immediately preceded by his best. The Yankees don't desperately need the games, but it would be awfully reassuring to have Burnett pitching well heading into the postseason.

The only benefit of being out of the picture for so a long time for Orioles fans is that it has allowed them to get a look at some of their young talent. Today, the O's serve up the Yanks with the 10th pitcher to make a start against them this year, Brian Matusz. Drafted out of the University of San Diego with the 4th pick of the 2008 draft, the tall lefty started at high A-ball this year, striking out 75 in 66 innings with a 2.16 ERA and then made the jump to double-A. Despite a drop in his strikeout rate in AA, Matusz was even better in the Eastern league, posting an ERA of 1.55 and averaging 6 2/3 innings per start. The O's called him straight up to the Big Leagues in the beginning of August and he's made 7 starts to a 5.26 ERA since then.

Like Chris Tillman who the Yanks saw yesterday, Matusz's marginal numbers this season with the Big League club doesn't mean much. He's only 22 years only and this two month stint in the Majors serves to get him some big league experience before he most likely begins next year down in AAA. Both Tillman and Matsuz are scheduled to be shut down for the season after one or two more starts.

With 19 games left in the season, the Yanks magic number is down to 14 while the O's have already been eliminated from Wild Card contention. Hopefully the Yanks can chip away at the latter figure while the O's continue to slide on down.

Hey nineteen,
No we got nothing in common,
No we cant talk at all,
Please take me along,
When you slide on down.