Fun With Shutdowns and Meltdowns

Based on a conversation which originated at Beyond the Boxscore and continued over at The Book blog, FanGraphs created two new stats for relief pitchers based on WPA. Fortunately there are no intimidating acronyms. The positive one is "Shutdowns (SD)" and the negative one is "Meltdowns (MD)". I think everyone can understand that.

The Yankees are tied for the fewest meltdowns in the MLB with 8 but they've also had the second fewest appearances by relievers this year primarily due to the length their starting pitchers have provided for them. Yankee starters are averaging 6 1/3 IP per start and on nights when Javy Vazquez isn't pitching that number jumps over 6 2/3.

Looking at it another way, the Yankees' ratio of meltdowns to shutdowns is better than 1:2, which is good for 7th best in the league. Without getting my hands too dirty, that seems like a pretty good way to rank the performance of team's bullpens so far this season. When sorted by meltdowns/shutdowns, the teams fall out into three distinct tiers.

Tier 1: These teams all have a better than 2:1 shutdown to meltdown ratio. Most of them have an ERA better than league average with the exception of the Tigers (13th), Nationals (18th) and Pirates (dead last).

(The columns next to ERA and MD/SD are the

team's league-wide ranks in those categories)

What's apparently right away is that there is a decent general correlation to ERA but some extreme outliers (likely due to the fact that it's still early in the season).

The Tigers have a bullpen ERA that is slightly higher than league average but still have the best MD/SD in the MLB. Detroit has converted 80% of their saves (tied for 4th best in the league) which is a good indication that they have been getting the job done when it matters but giving up a lot of runs in low leverage situations. The Nationals are in the same boat with a bad ERA (19th), high SV% (11/13) and a solid MD/SD (5th). The Pirates are an interesting case, as their ERA is clearly inflated by having eight losses by seven runs or more, including two games they lost to the Brewers by a combined 33 runs. Those big losses have essentially no effect on WPA after a certain point but are given equal weight in ERA.

Tier 2: All of these teams have between a 1:2 and 3:4 MD/SD ratio.

The Reds have the fourth most relief appearances in the league so it makes sense that they have the most shutdowns with 33 and are in the top 5 for meltdowns with 18. They might have a good ratio but their ERA is indicative of the fact that their 'pen is over-taxed. Paging Aroldis Chapman. The Red Sox are in a similar situation with fewer shutdowns but a lower ERA. The Mariners are the only team in this cluster with an ERA in the top 1/3 of the league.

Tier 3: The final tier consists of teams who have more than 3 meltdowns for every four shutdowns. Four of them - the Cubs, Dodgers, Giants and Royals - have more MDs than SDs.

Incredibly, the Giants, who are leading the league in bullpen ERA, have only 10 shutdowns (last in the MLB) and are second to last in terms of their MD/SD ratio.

Clearly, over the course of the season, teams like the Giants and Tigers are going to see their ERA and MD/SD ranks converge on each other. The Giants will get some good performances from their relievers when it matters and the Tigers will see their guys give up some runs when it counts too.

Neither ERA nor MDs and SDs are perfect ways of measuring reliever's contributions but each brings their own unique perspective. And when combined with or contrasted against each other they have a way of teasing out information that we might not have known before. It should be interesting to keep on eye on these stats as the season goes forward and FanGraphs includes them on the player pages.

19 Days Until Spring Training: Dave Righetti

Dave Righetti was one of the lucky few who grew up rooting for the Yankees and lived out the dream of playing for his favorite team. His paternal grandmother grew up next door to Tony Lazzeri in San Francisco, and although she lived 3,000 miles from the Bronx, became a fan of the Bombers. His dad Leo signed with the Yanks shortstop in 1940 at the age of 17, but never made it to the Big Leagues, his journey derailed by a freak accident that severed the tip of one of his fingers.

However, Dave did achieve that goal and a whole lot more. He was originally drafted by the Rangers but was dealt to the Yankees in November of 1978 as part of a trade that sent Juan Beníquez, Mike Griffin, Greg Jemison, Paul Mirabella and Righetti to New York in exchange for Sparky Lyle, Domingo Ramos, Mike Heath, Larry McCall, and Dave Rajsich.

Just three months later, he was nearly redirected to Minnesota as part of a package for Rod Carew. The Yankees agreed to part with Chris Chambliss, Brian Doyle, Beníquez and up to $400,000 but balked at the inclusion of Mirabella or Righetti. Carew grew frustrated with the talks, saying:

"I don't like the idea of being pushed around, cooling my heels while they [Steinbrenner and Twins owner Calvin Griffith] go fishing and play golf. If they think they can wait until the last minute and then tell me to start packing, they are out of their minds."

Luckily for Rags and his family, Carew was sent to the Angels and he got to stick around with the Yankees. After one season of 2.31 ERA ball split between AA and AAA, Righetti made his Major League debut in September of 1979 wearing number 56 when he was only 20 years old. It was a very short stint and he spent all of 1980 in AAA, struggling to a 4.53 ERA.

After an excellent 5-0 tear to begin his season in Columbus in 1981, he was called up in May. Rags got off to a great start, pitching to a 1.50 ERA in his first six starts and went on to win the American Leauge Rookie of the Year in a landslide.

In his next two seasons as a starting pitcher, Righetti threw exactly 400 innings of 3.60 ERA ball (109 ERA+). He famously tossed a no hitter against the Red Sox on the 4th of July in 1983, which Matt detailed around that time last year. It was the first such event in Yankees history since Don Larsen's perfect game in the 1956 World Series. Of course, the 4th is also George Steinbrenner's birthday which greatly endeared him to the Boss.

Paradoxically, being a favorite of the Boss sent his career down a path that never quite suited Righetti. At the behest of Steinbrenner, before the 1984 season began, the Yanks transitioned the Big Ragu into a reliever to replace the departed Goose Gossage. Privately, he didn't agree with the move to the bullpen, aware that he could be more successful and make more money as a starting pitcher over the long run. Outwardly though, he embraced the role and set the Major League Record for saves in 1986 with 46, though that record would be shattered by Bobby Thigpen 4 years later.

Like Joba Chamberlain and Phil Hughes, there was frequent and heated debate in regards to Righetti's proper role. Publicly, he was known as the "polite Yankee", keeping quiet about his amidst the chaos, refusing to charge for autographs and personally answering his fan mail.

But in the privacy of the clubhouse, he was rumored to react to his failures by flushing his cleats down the toilet and destroying locker room garbage cans. Eventually, he explained to Jill Lieber of Sports Illustrated how much the pressure of closing was weighing on him:

I've been booed so bad. I walk from the mound with my head down, then fight to get through the parking lot. I watch the fans cheer guys who don't hustle. They cheer guys who rip the organization. I guess you have to be rotten to have the fans like you. Keith Hernandez is involved in the Pittsburgh drug trial, and he gets a standing ovation at Shea Stadium. I give up a run, and I get booed like crazy. You figure it out.

I wish Yankee fans appreciated me as a reliever. They've never accepted me because the team has never stuck behind me as a reliever. And because I've never complained, they think I don't stand up for myself. They think I'm a patsy.

Although it was clear that Righetti wasn't embracing his role as closer, Steinbrenner remained adamant:

He is going to be the closer. He will be brought in in the ninth inning. Period. I'm the only one who knows how to use him. I've told my manager and coaches, 'If you reach for him too early, you'll be reaching for the next train home.'

Those quotes were recorded in early 1990, in Righetti's last year as a Yankee. He rode out that season with a 3.57 ERA and converted 36 saves. The Yanks allowed his contract to expire and he signed as a free agent with the Giants. While he was fairly effective in 1991, he was released halfway through his second consecutive terrible year in San Francisco in 1993.

Rags bounced around from the A's to the Blue Jays to the White Sox at the end of his career before retiring in 1995. In that final season, the White Sox let Rags start 9 games and he was actually pretty respectable, racking up a 4.20 ERA (107 ERA+).

Today he serves as the pitching coach for the Giants a position he's held since 2000.

Sadly, Righetti's career with the Yankees began with a ton of promise - a fan since childhood, a Rookie of the Year and a consummate nice guy. But like many of the Yankee teams he played on throughout the 1980's, his success was hampered by the tyrannical rule of the Boss.

Still, he left an indelible mark on the franchise. Every 4th of July, Yankees fans fondly remember Righetti for his finest moment in Pinstripes and are left to wonder what might have been had things turned out a different way.