Game 79 Win Expectancy Chart

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How Bad Has The Yankees' Bullpen Really Been?

The Yankees' relief pitching has left a lot to be desired over the last two games. On Sunday, their two best relievers - Joba Chamberlain and Mariano Rivera - combined to turn a two run lead into a three run deficit against the Twins. Last night, Boone Logan and Chan Ho Park allowed three home runs between them and if wasn't for the heroics of A-Rod and Marcus Thames, would have allowed the Red Sox to steal a game the Yankees had a stranglehold on starting in the first inning.

There have been other notable failures by relief corps throughout the year as well. Chan Ho Park gave up the lead on a two run homer to Dustin Pedroia on Opening Night. Kendry Morales hit a go-ahead, two run bomb off of Chamberlain in Anaheim that led to another Yankee loss. David Roberston coughed up the lead in Baltimore and combined with Damaso Marte to blow a game against the White Sox.

Of course, injuries have been a problem as well. Alfredo Aceves is on the DL with back problems and Chan Ho Park has just returned from a hamstring injury. Mariano Rivera was sidelined with a pulled muscle in his side and went nearly two weeks between appearances - not a DL stint, but in terms of his lack of contributions to the team, it nearly was.

This morning, Mike from River Ave. Blues talked about the Yankees "bullpen problem", Larry from the Yankeeist called the unit, save for Rivera and Chamberlain, "downright deplorable", and E.J. from TYU called the 'pen (aside from Mo) "a glaring weakness".

But has the bullpen really been that bad this year, especially considering the amount of injuries they've suffered?

Right now, the Yankees are roughly in the middle of the pack in terms of ERA with a mark of 4.02. In terms of Win Probability, they have about twice as many shutdowns as meltdowns but have cost the Yanks approximately one third of a victory overall.

Importantly, though, the Yankees have had the second fewest innings pitched out of any team in the MLB with 96 1/3 through their first 38 games, which averages out between 2 1/3 and 2 2/3 per contest. As a result, they have allowed the fourth fewest runs per game, which is possible given their middling ERA because they aren't being asked to shoulder very much of the load.

All told, I wouldn't say the bullpen has been all that bad this year. At worst they've been about league average. However, on a team with the second most wins in baseball, a part of that whole that functions as average is probably holding them back somewhat. And of course, any failure by the bullpen is going to stick out like a sore thumb. Which is probably why RAB, TYU, The Yankeesist and we are all talking about it today, on the heels of two very poor performances. When the bullpen gets the job done, no one bats an eyelash. When they fail to shut it down, everyone gets anxious, us Fackers included.

Going forward, it's tough to say if the Yanks' bullpen are going to get better or worse. There are two different forces at work which should more or less neutralize each other. They are near the bottom of the league in FIP, which suggests that they've been somewhat lucky to have given up as few runs as they have. On the other hand, that inflated FIP comes as a result of the fact that the Yanks have the 4th highest HR/FB rate in the Majors at 12.6% (driven by Park at 30.8% and Robertson at 23.1).

Robertson has been unsustainably bad in general. He might not improve on his dreadful 8.49 ERA and 2.314 (!!) WHIP, but if he doesn't, he'll be replaced by someone like Mark Melancon, resulting in a net upgrade one way or another. Eventually we may see Boone Logan optioned to AAA as well.

Furthermore, many of the innings that have been pitched so far have gone to guys who are replacing first line relievers who have been injured. Rivera, Park and Aceves - ostensibly three of their best five bullpen arms - have missed time.

If you are still dissatisfied with the Yanks' performance out of the 'pen, look no further than the space between the bleachers and left center field tonight. The Red Sox relievers have been absolutely dreadful this year, giving up 19 more runs than the Yanks and have the second worst FIP in the league.

Monday Afternoon Linkdown

Okay, we're all working our way through a rough Monday, so here are some links just in case you need any more excuses to put off doing work.

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I don't care if the Yankees have never blown a 6 game lead in the division in the history of the franchise. The Mets did it in 17 games two years ago and if recent memory serves me correctly, the Red Sox did something else historically unprecedented and terrible to the Yankees a few years before that. You know what they say about chickens and hatching.

Awww, poor Youk. Need a nap, buddy? “The bottom line is that everything is blown out of proportion when we play the Yankees. To be honest with you, it’s very tiresome.”

Check out the questions PeteAbe got Yogi Berra to sit down for. Does anyone not love Yogi?

Lisa Swan from Subway Squawkers spends some time knocking down the myth that A-Rod isn't clutch over at The Faster Times. She also reminds us of when "the MT curse" almost made a modicum of sense.

Mark Teixeira for President MVP!

"...when I have to talk, I’m not good at that. You all know that.” Guess who said it...

Crazy Yankee Chick is auctioning off one of her paintings of Yankee Stadium and donating the proceeds to the American Cancer Society.

No Maas has an update on this year's first round pick and subject of some older posts on our site, Slade Heathcott.

Here are some assorted sources of Soxenfreude.

Craig from Shysterball/Circling the Bases pulls together some thoughts on the fuzzy realm of sports psychology.

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Be back a little later with the preview.

This Will Make You Feel Better

Soxenfreude

Heading into the home half of the 7th inning in Baltimore, the Red Sox sat atop a 10-1 lead. John Smoltz pitched only 4 innings due to a rain delay but held the Orioles to one run. The bullpen had kept them off the board in the two innings following Smoltz's early departure.

Then something happened. Something improbable and fantastic and impossibly satisfying all at the same time.

Justin Masterson, Hideki Okijima and Takashi Saito and thayuh fackin' awesome closah combined to allow 10 runs on 13 hits in two innings. The final two of those runs crossed the plate when the mighty Jonathan Papelbon came in to try and shut the O's down with one out in the 8th inning but allowed both of the runners he inherited to score. Those were the final the final straws in a contest the Sox led 10-1 but ended up losing 11-10.

Their loss, combined with the Yankees' victory, narrows the gap atop the AL East to 2.5 games, down from 5 one week ago.