Round 2: Damon v. Abreu

Yesterday's hot topic around here, Bobby Abreu just got offered a nice new deal with the Angels.

The Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim offered Bobby Abreu a two-year extension worth about $16MM, according to SI.com's Jon Heyman (via Twitter).

As he did before this year, ol' Bobby is shooting for the stars and looking for a better deal. There's no real harm in that since he didn't sign with the Angels until mid-February this year and he has every right to find another team that's willing to pay him more than that.

Abreu is a really good hitter who would be an asset if placed in any lineup in the history of the game and he's coming off a pretty good year. But he'll be 36 years old when next season starts. He already has limited ability as a corner outfielder and will eventually transition into a part-time DH role.

Does that scenario sound familiar? That's right folks, Johnny Damon is in a nearly identical position.

Granted, the most likely scenario is that both guys stay where they are at, but let's assume the Yankees could have either of them for 2 years at $10M per. It might be a bit much, but with that offer already sitting out there for Abreu, we know it's not going to be much less.

Like we did yesterday with Nick Swisher and Abreu, let's look at the stats.

Damon batted in the two hole almost exclusively this year, while Abreu primarily hit third. This explains some of the gap in RBI, but not as well as Abreu's .354/.448/.475 line with RISP. That's great and all, but it's hardly sustainable.

On the same note, Damon set a career high for HRs this year and that is likely to regress to the mean next year as well. If Abreu were to get half of his plate appearances in Yankee Stadium in 2010, there's a pretty good chance his totals would increase, bringing the two a bit closer together.

The stolen base edge goes to Abreu, but Damon obviously could have run more and a good portion of the difference has to be the product of the strategy of the teams they play for. Defense isn't going to matter as much in the role that the Yankees are looking for since it will involve a good amount of games in the DH slot but Damon was completely terrible this year, and I don't think we can chalk off of it up to his eye issues. Although subjectively, I don't think there's any way he's that much worse than Abreu.

We're looking at two pretty similar players. Both have been extremely fortunate with their health over the years and remain productive at an advanced age. Both are risky investments and there's a fair chance that two years from now, one will look better than the other or both will look pretty bad. But based on what we know now, who ya got?

Realistically, Damon is far more likely to stick around due to real world factors like their families and such, but on paper a good case could be made for either of these guys. Think of what Abreu could do for the Yankees' approach at the plate!

Ronan Tynan: A Singer, Not A Comedian

There are plenty of people who think that playing God Bless America during the 7th inning stretch of every game is unnecessary. I would tend to agree with that sentiment, especially since the rendition by Kate Smith is awful. However, if they could get Ronan Tynan to do it every game - and maybe save the first verse for the big games - I would be totally on board.

Well, that's not going to be happening anytime soon:

Irish tenor Ronan Tynan sings a first-rate "God Bless America," at Yankee Stadium, but his attempt at telling a joke offended a Jewish doctor who found it to be anti-Semitic. [...]

The trouble started when Tynan, 49, bumped into a real estate agent showing an apartment in his East Side apartment building to a doctor from NYU Medical Center.

The agent told Tynan, "Don't worry, they are not Red Sox fans," according to apartment-hunter Gabrielle Gold-von Simson.

"I don't care about that, as long as they aren't Jewish," was Tynan's reply.

Yikes. That must have been awkward. "Well Mr. Tynan, they are Jewish..."

Apparently you can get away with those kind of "jokes" in Ireland. Not so much in New York. The Yankees spiked his appearance tonight as a result.

Hopefully they've secured someone else to sing God Bless America live. My buddy Joe suggested Daniel Rodriguez. It had better be someone, because Kate Smith and her gargling rendition have no place in the playoffs. If the Yankees lose tonight, it's on you, Tynan!

Are You Ready For Some Baseball?

Good morning Fackers. It's finally Friday. This is of course a good thing due to it being the end of yet another work week. But more importantly the seemingly interminable wait for another game of Yankee baseball is over - Mother Nature willing. Five whole days. And we thought the All-Star Break was long this year.

Speaking of the All-Star Break, just prior to it the Yankees had a disastrous three game series in Anaheim during which they were swept and outscored by a total of eleven runs. The end of that series marked the start of the longest hiatus the Yankees had this year - until now. The new longest break will end with a series against those same Angels, except the stakes are much higher this time.

The Yankees' 2009 regular season featured several key moments: the return of Alex Rodriguez in Baltimore; the three consecutive walk-offs against the Twins, the surprise visit from Brian Cashman in Atlanta, a momentum swinging ejection of Joe Girardi, Francisco Cervelli's first Major League home run and the early August sweep in the Bronx that finally turned the tables on the Red Sox. While all of those were positive events, it was perhaps getting swept in southern California that was the most critical turning point of the Yankee season. They exited that series at 51-37, 3 games back in the AL East. They went 52-22 the rest of the way, finishing with the best record in baseball.

Those last 74 games included four against the Angels. The Yankees went 3-1 in those games to even the season series at five apiece, but thanks to that three game set in July, they finished with a minus ten run differential against the Halos. From a Pythagorean perspective, the Yankees picked up about three quarters of win beyond what they should have, thanks in large part to three of their victories coming by a single run.

Over the course of this series, much will be made of the Yankees struggles against the Angels during Mike Scioscia's tenure, particularly in the 2002 and 2005 Division Series. While there's no denying that, it doesn't much matter. These Yankees and Angels are far removed even from last year's versions. This year they split, and while the Yanks may owe probability three fourths of a win heading into this series, they were able to carry an even larger IOU against the Twins over to 2010.

The Yankees last played a game Sunday, in the final baseball game ever played at the Metrodome. Incidentally, we thought the Yankees played their last game there way back in July. Oddly enough, the three game sweep at the hands of the Angels immediately followed. After the Angels took those three, the Yankees took three of the next four. Seven games. Four Angels wins, three Yankees wins. Let's hope those numbers reverse themselves over the next seven games. This series ought to be a good one.

Pulling For Joe?

Great news, my fellow baseball fans, our long national (pastime's) nightmare is over. Those were a couple very cold and lonely nights without baseball gracing our television screens. As Yankee fans, we were eased into this break with Game 4 of the Phillies vs. Rockies series on Monday and we'll be eased out of it with Game 1 of the NLCS at 8:07 tonight.

You may be familiar with the manager of the Los Angeles Dodgers - his name is Joe Torre. He worked for the Yankees for a couple of nondescript years in a low profile position a while back. Anyway, Peter Gammons was on Michael Kay's radio show yesterday and insinuated that Mr. Torre, despite his affinity for wheatgrass, is not enjoying his time in the City of Angels (link via BBTF):

Kay asked Gammons if he agreed that Joe Torre would only stay on as the Dodgers' manager through the 2010 season, when his contract ends.

"Yes, I do buy that," said Gammons. " ... I wouldn't be surprised and I think a lot of things will probably come out here in the next few months but I think (Torre's) life with the Dodgers is pretty much a living hell."

Kay: "Really!?"

Gammons: "Oh, yeah."

Kay: "So he thought he had it bad in New York and it's worse there?"

Gammons: "Oh, yeah ... Oh, yeah. There'll be a lot that comes out in time with Dodger ownership, but that is a mess [link added], and I don't think anyone wants to have to put up with it too long."

This may give some of you a bit of satisfaction since the reason that Torre ended up in LA in the first place was because he was "insulted" by an offer from the Yankees that would have made his the highest paying manager in the Major Leagues before any of the incentives involved with the deal kicked in. Or others who thought it was a little hypocritical to compare Michael Kay to Rhona Barrett to gain respect from his players when he first arrived on the scene and then write a tell-all book with Tom Verducci called "The Yankee Years" after he left.

Torre responded to comments, sounding a bit like your ex-girlfriend who broke up with you only to find out that what you had wasn't so bad, saying, “My relationship is fine here”and forcing a smile.

I never held it against Torre that he turned down the Yankees offer, probably because I thought it was time for a new manager anyway. My old roommate and I were actually at Mickey Mantle's on Central Park South the day that he flew down to Tampa to inform the Yanks of his decision. We were interviewed by one of the local news stations who sent a crew to the bar and I said something about it being "time to turn over the chain of command to someone a bit younger who can handle the pitching staff better" or something like that, except even more unintelligible since it was in front of the camera.

Oddly enough, Torre is now being lauded for his bullpen management after he brought in his closer, Jonathan Broxton in the 8th inning to face the heart of the Cardinals' order despite being down a run. Torre knew that Broxton would likely have to be removed for a pinch hitter if the Dodgers got anyone on base in the home half of the inning (which they did), but he still chose his best pitcher for the highest leverage situation, something that sabermetricians have been suggesting for years. Pretty crazy, huh?

Are you rooting for the Dodgers in this series? I don't think there's an appreciable difference in match-ups should the Yankees fulfill their end of the bargain which would be the first consideration, so it probably just comes down to preference. I'll admit that last year, since the Yanks did terribly, I wanted the Dodgers to get bounced as early as possible so that Torre's decision to spurn the Yanks wouldn't be vindicated (by the media anyway).

This year? Not so much. When you're happy with your own situation, it's a lot easier to pull for others.

[Update: Awesome gallery of old school Torre from Big League Stew]

Two Thoughts On Game Two

I know Game One isn't even until tomorrow, but here are two thoughts on the two hot button issues from this post-season, both of which affect Game Two (weather permitting).

First, Mike Scioscia's decision to pitch Joe Saunders in Game Two has been widely questioned, and with good reason in my opinion. I understand Scioscia's desire to utilize a lefty in Yankee Stadium in order to neutralize the Yankee lefties and switch hitters, since Yankee Stadia have historically favored lefties.

However, this Yankee Stadium has been a launching pad of historic proportions through its first 85 games. And as I pointed out when Saunders pitched against the Yanks three weeks ago, he is particularly prone to giving up the gopher ball. Saunders surrendered 29 long balls this year, tied for second in the American League despite the fact that an August DL stint limited him to 186 IP on the year. His 1.4 HR/9 also tied for second worst in the AL. Meanwhile, fellow lefty Scott Kazmir has more experience in the new Yankee Stadium, is a better pitcher overall, and allowed just 1.0 HR/9 this year, slightly less than league average.

A further thought regarding Saunders, Yankee batters this year hit .282/.360/.476 against right handed pitching and a slightly better across the board .286/.365/.480 against left handed pitching. There's no discernible platoon advantage there. The Angels would be best off throwing their best available pitcher in Game Two, and that pitcher is not Joe Saunders.

The second issue is whether Jose Molina will again catch A.J. Burnett. The Yankees have yet to announce that decision, though I'm inclined to believe that he will. But, even if he doesn't, I think we may see a bit of Jose Molina in this series anyway. Despite ranking just 11th in the AL in SB%, the Angels ranked third in the league in stolen bases with 148. In an effort to neutralize their running game, I wouldn't be surprised to see Jose Molina behind the plate in the late innings of game if the Yankees are leading.

This happened once already this year, early in the season in this game. Afterwards, Jorge Posada left the park without addressing the media. If this were to happen in the ALCS, the media storm would dwarf the Molina-gate squall that preceded Game Two of the ALDS.

I'm not sure what to make of this one. No one is going to confuse Jorge Posada with vintage Pudge Rodriguez behind the plate. And Posada shouldn't put his ego ahead of the good of the team. But, given that the Angels were below average in SB% and that all Yankee catchers, including Posada, were above league average CS%, it might be to the Yankees' advantage to tempt the Angels to give outs away on the bases.

Furthermore, if you subtract out caught stealings attributed to the pitcher making a pickoff attempt, Jorge Posada's catcher's caught stealing percentage of 21.6% is close to the league average of 21.9% and superior to Jose Molina's 17.9%. In fact, though the sample size is relatively small, the numbers suggest that if the Yankees decide to make a running based defensive substitution behind the plate, the nod should go to Franciso Cervelli who had an off the charts catcher's caught stealing percentage of 38.1% (8 of 21) in the equivalent of about 27 games behind the dish.

Guzman In, Hinske Out

Via LoHud, Joe Girardi announced that Freddy Guzman will be added to the ALCS roster at the expense of Eric Hinske. They've got the audio and the relevant part can be found around the 2:00 mark.

Joel Sherman (among others) advocated this move yesterday, reasoning that while Hinske does have a solid bat, there are few occasions that he would be used:

The Yanks should stick with Hinske only if they intend to start him vs. Jered Weaver, against whom Hinske is 4-for-11 with a homer lifetime. Hinske could start in left for struggling Johnny Damon (3-for-19 vs. Weaver with no extra-base hits) or as the DH rather than Hideki Matsui (2-for-10 vs. Weaver) or Jorge Posada (2-for-14, but with a homer and double).

My gut, though, tells me Girardi plans to ignore small sample sizes and go with his standard lineup vs. Weaver. In that case, the Yanks should meet Angels' aggression with aggression of their own, and put Guzman on the roster.

We haven't been very big proponents of the Freddy Guzman experiment around here, but we are literally talking about the 25th man on the roster in this case. Hinske didn't leave the dugout except to celebrate during the ALDS, and the presence of Guzman will allow Joe Girardi to start Brett Gardner over Melky Cabrera (which is probably optimal) and still have a pinch runner available on the bench.

It also means that Francisco Cervelli will still be around for the ALCS, creating some interesting possibilities for catching in the later innings. Like we saw in Game 2 against the Twins, when Jose Molina starts, he could be pinch hit for by Jorge Posada, who could later be pinch run for (in this case by Guzman) and replaced by Cervelli for defense. In games Posada starts, the second half of that equation still holds true with Molina being the likely defensive replacement.

Check back in a little while, as Matt will take a closer look at the catching situation for the series.

Swisher v. Abreu

This morning, Matt did a great job debunking the myth of Bobby Abreu's resurgent season and magical contagious plate discipline out in Anaheim. I also want to chime in on Abreu's production this season, but in relation to his ostensible replacement - another cheap acquisition via trade for the Yankees - Nick Swisher.

Although Xavier Nady was slotted as the starting right fielder and Swisher was supposed to man first base at the time the Yankees declined to offer Abreu arbitration on his $16M 2008 contract, Nady was done for the season by April 14th and Swish ended up getting over 600 plate appearances for the Yanks. Abreu sounded a bit like a spurned lover when talking about the Yankees cutting him loose but the reality is that at the time $16M was far too much to offer a corner outfielder with limited range when the market are held players like Raul Ibanez, Adam Dunn, Milton Bradley and Pat Burrell - even before taking into account the state of the baseball economy.

The decision made itself. The Angels waited out Abreu's attempts at a large, multi-year deal and got great value on highly productive hitter. Meanwhile, the Yankees signed Mark Teixeira and Swish ended up taking Abreu's place in right field of the New Yankee Stadium. They made essentially the same amount of money in 2009, so who got the better player?

Both guys love to work the count and put up solid OBPs, but that's pretty much where their similarities end. Let's take a look at the numbers (bold print represents an advantage):

A cursory look at the basic stats would give the nod to Abreu. His batting average is far higher than Swisher's and he batted in 14 21 more runs while stealing 30 bases.

However, while Abreu complied 41 more hits than Swisher, he actually had 14 fewer go for extra bases. The OBP advantage goes to Abreu, but more importantly, the slugging crown is Swish's by a wide margin. The home run totals are skewed by the New Yankee Stadium (although Swish only hit 8 at home), but not so much that Abreu would have hit twice as many there.

Abreu batted either second or third in the Angels' line up while Swisher was typically hitting somewhere between 6th and 8th for the Yankees, which explains the difference in RBIs. The 30 stolen bases at a 78% success rate do represent a major advantage for Abreu, but adding those 22 net total bases to Abreu's total isn't enough counteract Swisher's advantage in slugging percentage while subtracting the 8 times on base brings with OBPs closer together.

Usually, you would expect the guy who is a better base stealer to have the advantage in fielding as well, but that's not the case in this scenario. Swish didn't even attempt to steal a base all year long but still was better, or should I say "not as bad" as Abreu in right field.

Mainly on the strength of defense and power, Swisher had a higher value for the Yankees this year. Since Abreu hit all the plate appearance-based incentives in his contract this year, it means that Swish was the cheaper option by about $700,000 as well.

Both teams made out very well, but for different reasons. Swisher was cost controlled because of the deal he signed buying out his arbitration years and Abreu's contract was one of the most team-friendly in a historic buyer's market. The Yanks got an average fielding slugger while the Angels got a singles-raking base stealer. And with the teams meeting in the ALCS, I don't think there are too many regrets with how this scenario played out.

The Fallacy Of El Comedulce

Good morning Fackers. The completion of the transcontinental railroad in 1869 allowed for far easier and faster transportation from the East Coast to the West Coast than had previously existed. Yet, from what I've been hearing and reading over the past several months, the concepts of the base on balls and working the pitch count still did not make its way west until some 140 years later when Bobby Abreu signed with the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim.

Don't get me wrong, Bobby Abreu is a very good baseball player. Depending upon how the Johnny Damon and Hideki Matsui situations work out this off-season, he might be a good option for the 2010 Yankees to explore. He was initially acquired in one of the best deals Brian Cashman has made and provided the Yankees with two and a half years of good to excellent offensive production, even if his phobia of outfield walls was downright comical by the end of his tenure in the Bronx. The Yankees rightly refused to offer him arbitration following last season, as the $16M he earned in 2008 would have made his 2009 arbitration figure far more than what he's worth. That coupled with the collapse of the free agent market last off-season in light of both the U.S. economy and the ever changing landscape of baseball economics allowed the Angels to sign Abreu for the bottom basement price of $5M for 2009.

While the prevaling narrative is that Abreu enjoyed something of a comeback season, the reality is that his OPS+ of 115 this year is worse than last year (120), essentially equal to his 2007 (114), and the second lowest total of his career since becoming an everyday player in 1998. Some of that can be attributed to the continued diminishing of his power late in his career. But while his OBP of .390 and his BB% of 14.1 are improvements on 2007 and 2008, they still rank as his third lowest marks since 1998.

Yet if you were to listen to the announcers during ALDS or any other nationally televised Angels' game this year, or if you were to google "Bobby Abreu influence on Angels", you would be subjected to scores of hyperbolic statements crediting Abreu with teaching the Angels, who have made the playoffs three straight seasons and six of the last eight, how to finally work a pitch count and take a walk. Nevermind that as recently as 2007 the Angels finished third in the AL in OBP, just as they did this year, with a mark .345, just a half percent lower than this year's .350.

In this post yesterday, Rob Neyer, vamping on Tyler Kepner's piece in The Times, pointed out that the Angels walked 66 more times this year than last, boosting their walk rate from 7.8% to 8.7% and rising from 11th in the AL in OBP back to third, where they had finished in 2007. Yet Neyer also notes that the difference can be entirely attributed to the performance of Abreu alone, who had 65 more walks than the man he replaced - Garrett Anderson, a notorious free swinger whose career high in walks is a whopping 38. In addition to Abreu, Chone Figgins walked 39 more times this year than in 2008. So outside of Figgins and swapping Anderson for Abreu, the rest of the Angels walked 38 fewer times than they did in 2008.

While their average pitches per plate appearance increased from 3.65 to 3.88, that only equates to about 12.5 extra pitches per game, of which about 5.5 can be attributed to Abreu and Figgins. So the rest of the line up saw, on average, one extra pitch each over the course of a game. And while the team's walk rate did increase by 0.9% this year, their IsoD is consisent with last year (.065 this year as opposed to .062 last year). Their 20 point boost in on base percentage is just as much due to a 17 point jump in batting average, which in turn can be attributed to a 23 point jump in team BABIP despite just a one percent increase in LD%. So much for Abreu's influence; it appears luck has far more to do with the Angels' surge in OBP than Abreu does.

Bobby Abreu was the best bargain of the 2008-2009 Crazy Eddie style off-season. You don't need FanGraphs to tell you that Abreu was a steal $6M ($5M base plus $1M incentives), but just to put a number on it, FanGraphs places Abreu's worth at $11.8M this year, nearly twice his salary. That's one helluva deal the Angels got for themselves, but it doesn't mean that Abreu, as one of the most selective hitters in the game, has bestowed his patience upon the rest of the lineup through his mere presence. Keep that in mind as Joe Buck, Tim McCarver, Ken Rosenthal, and the print media try to beat that story line into our head over the course of the ALCS.

Off Night Viewing

Hey there Fackers. Once again, sorry for the slow drip of content here today. We're now approaching night three of four Yankee baseball-less nights, so at least we'll have something to talk about again soon. As for me, I've been fairly well tied up at the office today.

The company that employs me was purchased by a British corporation fifteen months ago, just like on Mad Men. The Board of Directors is coming across the pond to meet at our office for the next two days (though I'm not sure how they're traveling, we've worked out a one if by land, two if by sea signaling system). Everyone here has been a bit on edge getting things prepared for the meetings. I'm just hopeful that ours here go better than when the Brits came to visit on Mad Men (jump to the 1:40 mark).

Speaking of television, here are a few options to get you through another night without baseball:

• College Football: #5 Boise State at Tulsa, ESPN 8 PM. The other undefeated Broncos will likely have to stay that way if they expect a trip to a BCS game. This is the first of back-to-back games away from the blue field. Tulsa is 4-1, with their only loss being a 45-0 drubbing against then #2 Oklahoma. This is the first of back-to-back Wendesday night ESPN games for the Golden Hurricanes. Boise State opened the season with a weeknight game on ESPN and someone got punched in the face, so this could be fun.
  
  I spent most of last Saturday at the office getting ready for this week, so I didn't catch much college football. Being at the office did give me access to ESPN360 though, so I was able watch BC get completely destroyed by Virginia Tech while I worked - talk about adding insult to injury. I'm looking forward to watching tonight on an actual television, from the comfort of my own couch, with a few frosty cold ones.



• World Cup Qualifying: USA vs. Costa Rica, ESPN2 7:30 PM. The U.S. has already punched their ticket South Africa for next year's World Cup, so this one isn't of much consequence to them. Costa Rica on the other hand is still trying to hold off Honduras for the third and final guaranteed CONCACAF berth, so they have something to play for. A win clinches that berth for them, a tie and a Honduras win against El Savador tonight forces a tie for the spot.
  
  The U.S. will be without striker (and former BC Eagle) Charlie Davies, who was involved in a horrific one car accident early yesterday morning. Davis required five hours of emergency surgery and will likely miss the World Cup as a result. He was one of the lucky ones; one of the car's passengers did not survive the crash.



• NHL: Kings at Rangers, MSG 7 PM. I haven't yet watched too much hockey this year, but I'll try to catch a bit of this one. New Ranger (and former BC Eagle) Brian Boyle will face his former team in this one. The guy is 6'7" without skates on. The Kings feature Rob Scuderi who played for the Stanley Cup Champion Penguins last year, and the National Champion BC Eagles in 2001. Kings goalie Jonathan Quick is a local guy and attended the same prep school as former Ranger (and former BC Eagle) Brian Leetch. The Rangers have a defenseman named Dan Girardi, but I've yet to hear anyone in the NYC media make some sort of poorly conceived connection to the Yankee skipper.



• Yankees Classics: 1976 ALCS Game 5, YES 7 PM. The Chris Chambliss game.



• Lastly, the second episode of the new season of South Park airs on Comedy Central at 10 PM. This one's apparently about Butters, who happens to be my favorite character.

That's it for us tonight. See you in the A.M. In honor of the British coming, here's a little Paul Revere.

Rounding Up Some ALCS Previews

Since the Yankees didn't know who they were playing until the day before the ALDS started, there weren't too many comprehensive previews written for the series. For the ALCS, quite the opposite is true.

We aren't going to do anything specific in preparation for the series just yet, but for those of you who are jonesing for some info, we've taken the liberty of rounding a whole bunch of them from the many corners of the interwebs:

Here is the full schedule, complete with announcers via who else but Awful Announcing.

Looking to buy tickets? They won't be cheap.

Chad Jennings looks at four decisions the Yankees will have to make. Oh wait, make that five.

River Ave. Blues examines the managers, the starting rotations and the Yankees' roster.

Joel Sherman has some roster suggestions of his own.

Tyler Kepner runs down the Angels' various ways of winning and notes that this diversity is what helps them win so often.

Dayn Perry of Baseball Prospectus (over at FOX Sports) thinks this could be one for the ages.

Rob Neyer breaks down the Angels perceived strength on the basepaths and concludes that the bulk of it doesn't come from swiping bags. Don't worry, Joe Girardi has a plan to deal with their speed. Carson Cistulli wonders how fast Bobby Abreu really is.

Mike Vaccaro of the Post writes of Mike Scioscia's torturous ways.

Big League Stew checks in with 5 early storylines.

Dave Allen at FanGraphs projects how Jered Weaver might fare at Yankee Stadium in Game 2. Dave Cameron (also at FanGraphs) looks at the first three starting pitching match-ups and expects both teams to use a 3 man rotation, which would allow the Yanks to start three lefties at the Stadium.

Girardi is definitely considering it.

The Yankee Universe agrees that CC Sabathia should start Games 1, 4 & 7, makes some predictions, identifies the Angels' biggest weakness wonders which is the team of destiny.

Pending Pinstripes lays out the schedule and gives the Yanks about a 2 in 3 chance of winning.

Steve Goldman from The Pinstriped Bible quickly notes the differences between the Twins and Angels and assures us that the Halos will be a tougher match-up.

Steve Piloti of the Newark Star-Ledger gives us 5 reasons to worry.

Is that enough for you?

Joba's Workouts

Not the first name that comes to mind when you think of ESPN The Magazine's "Body Issue" but they have a quick video of Mr. Chamberlain doing some running around the Oakland Coliseum as part of his training regiment. There's also a picture and a quick blurb of you go here and click on number 4.

I'm with Joba on this one. When I go running, I always try to mix up the terrain and scenery to keep it interesting. When I lived on the Upper West Side I would hit up The Ramble in Central Park while everyone else ran the prescribed loops that encircled it. Likewise, why run laps in the outfield when the stands in every park are unique? It gives you the freedom to alter the route as you go, the downside is that pretty much impossible to keep track of how far you've ran. But I think we can agree that any amount of running is an improvement over this Joba.

Closer Implosions

Good morning, Fackers. We began yesterday talking about Huston Street's blown save and how it fit into a trend of closers not being able to lock it down so far this postseason. Aside from the aforementioned meltdowns by Jonathan Papelbon, Joe Nathan and Ryan Franklin, other shutdown late inning relievers like Phil Hughes and Ryan Madson stumbled as well.

These late inning offense outbursts, couple with the long layover before the League Championships Series begin have swung a huge amount off attention towards the closer role and have fans of various allegiances doing a fair bit of hand wringing.

It's not just the fans though. David Pinto, a former chief researcher for Baseball Tonight whose Twitter moniker is "@StatsGuru" thinks Joel Sherman might be somehow jinxing the Yankees with this column, entitled "Rivera Gives Yankees Edge In October". Pinto says:

After watching Nathan, Papelbon, Street and Franklin get lit up, Joel Sherman really shouldn’t write this headline.

Pinto's own headline is "Bad Time To Put Your Faith In Closers", implying that they rise and fall in relation to each other as if they are some sort of commodity. That would be like saying that the LCSes are going to be terribly umpired even if Phil Cuzzi and C.B. Bucknor are watching at home. Anyone feel comfortable making that prediction? I don't think I have to remind a "Stats Guru" that a rash of bad performances by someone's peers doesn't make them anymore likely to mess up themselves.

Tom Verducci over at SI.com attempts to unlock the mysteries of October in a single column, entitled: "Here's why it's so hard to close out a game in October". Intriguing, yes? What secrets has Tom uncovered? How long must it have taken him to research countless postseasons to find the relevant trends? Enlighten us with you timeless findings, Mr. Verducci! [emphasis mine]

Take all the closers this postseason [...and] look at what they did in their 18 ninth-inning appearances of the Division Series, and compare that to the major league average ninth inning -- not just those thrown by closers -- for the 2009 season.

Wait, what??!?! Where do we even start with this statistical atrocity?

First and most obviously, he looks at one round of the Divisional Series with a robust sample size of 18 innings (or an average of just over 2 per pitcher) and tell us why "it's so hard to close out a game in October"? That's not even a good method of comparing data for this year, let alone postseason play in general. Apparently Dane Cook was right, there really is "ONLY ONE OCTOBER!!".

Secondly, why the Major League average 9th inning? If you wanted to find out what is unique about closing out games in October, it would probably be wise to compare that to closing out games in other months of the year, don't you think?

With this shoddy methodology, Verducci's main conclusions, aside from pressure which he mentions briefly, are that hitters have better scouting reports which they can only really pay attention during the postseason and batters have a more "intense focus".

But baseball is a zero sum game. So pitchers have better scouting reports and a more intense focus, too, right?

I'll grant Verducci the point that it is harder to close out games in October, but I think he's forgoing Occam's Razor in a major way here. Maybe closers' arms are a little bit worn out when the postseason rolls around, but does it really come down to much more than pressure and facing better offensive teams?

Did you see Joe Nathan's face when he was on the mound on Friday night? He looked like he was heading through US Customs with a kilo of cocaine in his suitcase, except even a tweaked out drug mule wouldn't have been doing that thing with his lips.

It's easy to dismiss pressure as a contributing factor during the regular season. Closers are built to handle the stress of closing down games and do it all the time, but rarely is there anything more on the line. Once the playoffs roll around, a blown save doesn't just cost you a game, it could very well cost your team their season. It's human nature to feel that pressure - we all do it as fans, just watching it on TV.

If it really was scouting reports and batter's focus, would Mariano Rivera have an 0.74 ERA in the postseason, almost exactly 1/3 of his regular season mark despite facing better competition and averaging more innings per appearance? I think not.

Mariano Rivera isn't perfect, but he's a lot better at dealing with pressure than any other closer remaining in the postseason, so Joel Sherman and Burt Blyleven don't think twice about the titles to their columns even though a bunch of lesser closers lost their shit in the LDSes.

There's no guarantee that Mo gets through this postseason perfectly. In fact, he already failed to clean up for Phil Hughes in Game 2, allowing an RBI single to Denard Span. But he came back out the next inning and got three outs. And he popped up on the mound in Game 3 in Minnesota to break Joe Mauer's bat like stale loaf of bread in the 8th inning and lock down the save in the 9th.

Saying that he gives the Yankees the edge isn't going to somehow jinx him, because there are no such thing as jinxes. He's the best postseason pitcher of all-time by a mile and if someone gets the best of him it's because nobody's perfect.

Before The Music Dies

Here at Fack Youk, we take a special pride in melding music with sports. Way back before the season started, I used to label music posts as [Non-Sports] but almost immediately after April rolled around I began dropping musical YouTube clips to help express the anxiousness of waiting for meaningful baseball to be played and by the third game had come up with our signature style of previews which attempt to pair a song with a theme leading into each game. It can be a struggle sometimes, so not every combo is like peanut butter and jelly, but we do our best.

Perhaps out musical tastes don't exactly jive with yours, but one thing that you can count on (especially when Matt writes the previews) is that the song and band choices will be a little off the beaten path. Perhaps it's something old, or fairly new, or something so obscure that we couldn't even find it on YouTube, but it's almost never mainstream. By definition, that means that fewer of you are going to know the songs, but it also means that it's more likely that we are opening you up to something you've never heard before.

Matt and I are clearly both hardcore music enthusiasts and a big reason for that level of appreciation is that, at a certain point, we realized that there was more to music than MTV and the radio.

As such, we would like to extend our highest level of recommendation to the documentary below called "Before the Music Dies". It's a fascinating exploration into how the corporatization of the music business and the search for hit singles has made it almost impossible for unique new artists to come into their own through the traditional channels of record labels and radio airplay. In short, it helps to explain why radio is so redundant regardless of where you go and contemporary popular music is generally so shitty.

At the same time, it looks at the advent of the internet and file sharing and how those things have undermined the way consumers are force-fed popular music through a limited number of mediums. In the post-Napster landscape, consumers are free to explore what they like through YouTube, MySpace, BitTorrent and countless other alternatives to Clear Channel radio stations and MTV. The only problem is that the revenue streams have yet to catch up and while this is bad for the labels, it's worse for the artists.

The film features musicians and bands that we have talked about on this blog such as Les Paul, Eric Clapton, The North Mississippi All Stars, Widespread Panic, Doyle Bramhall II along with many others. If you've got an hour and a half to kill tonight or some other time when the Yanks aren't on, this is a great way to spend it. Either way, we'll be back tomorrow.

*I first saw this movie via the blog Pigeons and Planes which provides a steady stream of downloadable new music from a whole bunch of genres. Highly recommended as well.