Another Sweep Of The Birds

Despite what the final score indicates, the series finale against the Orioles was a tightly contested game - at least it was for eight innings.

Coming off his superb August, CC Sabathia struggled a bit at the outset of his first September start. He allowed singles to two of the first three batters he faced, then fell behind 1-0 on a sacrifice fly. In the second he gave up three singles to load the bases, but fanned the next two batters to end the frame. It was his last real scare for the night, and the Big Fella continued his recent hot streak with seven innings, seven hits, a lone run, a walk, and nine Ks.

Like the Orioles, the Yankees had no problems putting runners on base, but had difficulty bringing them home. Orioles starter Jason Berken allowed eight hits and two walks in 5.1 innings of work, yet was charged with just a single run as the Yankees left nine runners on base through the first six innings. The Yankees did manage to tie it up on an Eric Hinske solo shot in the third.

In the seventh, the Yankees finally managed a lead. Johnny Damon led off with a single, then Nick Swisher - batting third as Mark Teixeira got a night off - doubled to put two runners in scoring position for Alex Rodriguez. A-Rod, who tallied his 2,500th career hit in the fifth, added number 2,501 and gave the Yankees a lead they wouldn't relinquesh.

Brian Bruney, Phil Coke, and Phil Hughes recorded an out each in the eighth, but the O's cut the lead to one as Bruney gave a up a Nolan Reimold homer. With Mariano Rivera unavailable for the ninth due to a sore groin, the Yankees lead seemed even more tenuous.

The Yankee offense took all the suspense out of the game in the ninth, plating seven runs as they nickel and dimed the O's to death with two walks, seven singles, and zero extra base hits. The first five Yankees to come to the plate in the inning reached base safely, as did four of five Yankees batters between the first and third outs. While the Yankee offense got to pad their stats a bit more, the inning served as an apt representation of both the depth of the current Yankee line up and the general state of affairs in Baltimore for the past 12 seasons.

Despite the eight run lead, Phil Hughes, in need of innings, pitched the ninth to earn his second Major League save. He'll serve as the acting closer until Mo's ready to return. The bullpen will warrant watching this weekend with Mo out and Chad Gaudin, Joba Chamberlain, and Sergio Mitre starting three of the four games in Toronto, followed by a double header on Monday. The bullpen, currently at nine mortals and one dinged-up Mo, will likely have a lot of work ahead of them.


The game closed the season series against Baltimore. After dropping the first two games of the season in Baltimore, the Yankees have gone 12-1 against the O's, takiing the last ten in a row, and the sweeping the last three series between them. They'll meet three times more, in the Bronx next weekend.

Game 133: Hot House

In the first inning of last night's game, A.J. Burnett left a pitch out over the plate that Felix Pie drove the opposite way for his third homer in as many games and 4th in his last 5. Burnett was none too pleased and made the hand gesture shown above in Pie's direction as he was rounding the bases. Burnett later claimed that he said "That's the way to hit a spot" to himself, but to my untrained eye it sure looked like he said something to the effect of "That motherfucker?", in disbelief that he would give up the homer to Pie, of all people. I think the facial expression above sort of speaks for itself.

Baltimore broadcaster Gary Thorne agreed, describing it as referring "to [Pie] in a way that would have upset Pie's entire family, especially on the maternal side". Regardless of what Burnett actually said, some members of the Orioles coaching staff didn't take too kindly to it and informed Pie when he got back in the dugout.

In the top of the 8th, Matt Albers and Nick Swisher exchanged some words, after Swisher struck out on a pitch that was well off the plate inside. According to PeteAbe, Albers suggested that he should have swung at it, and Swish is still pretty ticked off about the incident and not opposed to retaliating.

The Orioles have already been mathematically eliminated from winning the division and with a rookie pitcher like Jason Berken on the mound, it isn't too difficult to envision a scenario where a Yankee batter gets plunked in the early going and things get ugly. Berken hasn't been good this year, tallying a 6.33 ERA in 91 innings since being called up at the end of May, so it's not like he's going to tell the team "no" if he's told to take action.

CC Sabathia, on the other hand, has every reason to stay above the fray. He had notched 5 straight victories in a row before getting a no-decision after a solid 7 innings of two run ball against the White Sox last Friday. His ERA is as low as it has been since the beginning of June and he looks to carry his dominant August over into September with a long outing tonight.

The Yanks don't need any suspensions, or worse, injuries resulting from the fact that the O's have nothing to play for right now and nothing better to do than pick fights. Our boys most certainly do have stuff left to play for. Namely completing a sweep of The Birds on their home turf.

Here's to hoping that cooler heads prevail if things get a little heated this evening.

The Fight For The Two Spot

I'm aware that assigning numerical values to the Yankee starting pitchers is largely an exercise in futility. Aside from determining the order they begin the year in (which isn't always the case), the hierarchy is largely meaningless throughout the regular season. Every team's rotation gets jumbled up based on off days and suspensions and rainouts over the course of the season, so relatively early on you're getting match ups where one team's "#1" squares off against another's "#4" and so forth.

Once the postseason nears though, the ranking takes on a whole new importance. Questions arise about the postseason rotation and who will start what game in the ALDS. Max Kellerman used to argue that Game 2 was actually the most pivotal game of a 5 game series because it always swings the series between 1-1 and 2-0, either pulling one team back to even or putting them on the brink of elimination.

Since Kellerman's theory is a bit radical, I think we can safely assume that Joe Girardi is going to attempt to line up his rotation with his best pitcher starting Game 1 and so on. Since only three games are guaranteed, it also matters who the top three pitches are. It's clear that CC Sabathia slots in at the top of the rotation and Joba Chamberlain would be their 4th starter. So the question comes down to Burnett vs. Pettitte for the number two slot.

NoMaas makes the case for Pettitte and it's hard to argue against it. Pettitte has been on a better run recently and his numbers for the season are stronger as well. Both have made 27 starts and you might be surprised to learn that Burnett has pitched only 2 1/3 more innings than Pettitte with each averaging just under 6 1/3 each time out. Pettitte has a better ERA, WHIP, FIP, K/BB, HR/9. Burnett leads in quality starts 18 to 15 (fairly significant) and has struck out more per 9 IP while allowing fewer hits, but has walked one more per 9 (which is how his WHIP is worse).

It's worth noting that on June 20th, their ERAs were almost exactly the same (4.24 and 4.26) but Burnett proceeded to go on a run that saw his drop to 3.53 at one point while Pettitte's rose as high as 4.85. Burnett's great stretch was better than anything Pettitte has done this season and the reality is that upside is always tantalizing in sports.

Burnett has never pitched in the postseason (he was injured with the 2003 Marlins) and Pettitte has thrown 218 1/3 playoff innings to a 3.98 ERA over the course of 25 series.

Moshe at the Yankees Universe introduces another interesting factor: home/road splits. Oddly, although Burnett is the righty of the two, he has better numbers at Yankee Stadium while Pettitte has done his best work on the road, with a roughly 1.3 run difference in ERA in both directions. If the Yanks hang on to win the division, Game 2 will be at home. Jason from Heartland Pinstripes would prefer to give Burnett the start if this turns out to be the case.

It will be interesting to see how heavily Joe Girardi weights September performance into the equation. With about 5 or 6 starts remaining for each, much can change. If the ALDS started five days from now, I'd probably go with Pettitte. If Burnett has a decent September I'd probably choose him. Either way, every start in the postseason is important and the Yanks are lucky to have guys as good as those two jockeying for position.

Are Throws To First A Waste Of Time?

You know the scene. The Yankees are on the road, it's late in the game and the opposing team puts a speedster on base. The pitcher throws over to first once, the runner retreats safely. He throws over again and it's not even close this time. The crowd starts to boo. And a third time. The boos get louder.

Even as a fan of the team throwing to first, I sometimes get annoyed with the process. It breaks up the flow of the game, it seemingly never works, and yet teams continually do it. Is it actually effective as a tactic or is it another practice in baseball that's done because it's always been done?

As of late June (can't find more recent stats), both Andy Pettitte and A.J. Burnett were near the top of the league in pick-off attempts. Burnett had a game this year against the Angels in which he threw to first base 24 times in 7 innings. They do get results though, as Pettitte is tied for the AL lead with 8 pickoffs this year while Burnett is not too far behind with 5. However, Burnett has more pickoffs where the runner was tagged out diving back to first base (4) than Pettite (3), probably because runners are more wary of Andy's move. Five of Pettitte's PO's were of the variety that CC Sabathia recorded against Jacoby Ellsbury last Sunday Night in which the runner was going on motion and got caught stealing.

We all know that pickoffs are pretty rare. Pettitte has allowed 178 runners to reach first base this year via single, walk or HBP and has nabbed less than 5% of them, or fewer than one every 3 starts. Much of the time the throws to the base are called from the bench and it's not especially close. You essentially never see a runner picked off the second time the pitches tosses over to first base.

But yet it's still done. Does it have a purpose even if they aren't catching the runners getting too greedy with their lead very often?

John Dewan says yes (h/t BBTF). When looking at data from 2002-2009, they've found that a runner's stolen base percentage actually does decrease when one throw to first base has been made. It goes down slightly with each throw after that, but not significantly. Check out his post for the numbers.

Runners steal at a 65% clip against Pettitte and Burnett which means the league is ineffective by sabermetric standards at swiping with them on the mound. Whether we like it or not, all those throws to to first base do serve a purpose (besides just slowing down the game).

Pondering What Might Have Been

Last week, the media and the blogosphere dedicated a lot of time to marking the twenty year anniversary of Pete Rose agreeing to a lifetime ban from baseball in the face of overwhelming evidence that he gambled on the game and gambled on his own team. ESPN showed an Outside the Lines piece that actually managed to humanize the insufferable Joe Morgan, who was literally moved to tears over his frustration with the arrogance and stubbornness his friend and former teammate has carried himself with in these last two decades.

This post isn't intended to wade into the quagmire that is the Rose debate. Rather, it's to point out that yesterday marked the twentieth anniversary of the death of former Commissioner A. Bartlett Giamatti, the other principal character in the Greek tragedy that is the Rose banishment. The anniversary of the death of Rose's baseball career passed with much fanfare. The anniversary of the death of Giamatti passed with nary a whisper.

Baseball lends itself to stories and fables and legends and hyperbole. That's the way it's always worked, particularly with the media. As such, the legend goes that the toll of the Dowd Report and the Rose ban killed Giamatti just eight days after the suspension was announced. The truth of the matter is Giamatti was overweight, smoked heavily, and suffered from Charcot-Marie-Tooth disease. I'm sure the stress of the summer of 1989 weighed heavily upon Giamatti, but it certainly wasn't the only cause of his tragic and untimely death.

Last night, as I drove past the sign for the Giamatti Little League Center on my way to my hockey game, I thought about what might have been had Giamatti not died less than a year into his tenure as Commissioner. Several others have had similar thoughts of late. Rose and his camp insist that Giamatti would have granted Rose reinstatement over time. Fay Vincent, who served as Giamatti's Deputy Commissioner and played a major role in the Rose investigation, insists that never would have happened.

In February, following the Alex Rodriguez steroid admission, Yale Magazine ran a piece from Giamatti friend and former U.S. Attorney General Dick Thornburgh. It implied that Giamatti was planning to tackle drug testing head on after the Rose situation was settled, and suggested that perhaps the PED scandal of the last twenty years could have been avoided had Giamatti been successful. And maybe Giamatti would have made an impact. He had the backing of the owners. He had taken a hard line against a union before in his days as Yale President. He had gained a reputation as a disciplinarian in his time as National League President, handing down heavy suspensions to Rose for an ump bump and Dodgers reliever (and former Yankee) Jay Howell for applying pine tar to a ball during the NLCS. But we'll never know if Giamatti would have taken on drug testing nor how successful he would have been.

As for me, I wonder how other things would have played out had Giamatti lived to serve a full term. Would Fay Vincent still have been named his successor? If so, would he have been as overmatched in that role had he been able to spend more than just a few months working in Major League Baseball first? Would the owners still have forced him out? Could the Bud Selig era have been avoided? How about the 1994 strike? The Wild Card and divisional realignment? Would the ridiculous All-Star Game/homefield advantage policy still be in place? Would baseball have expanded twice more? Would contraction have even been discussed? Would the Nationals still be in Montreal? Would the Giants or White Sox have moved to St. Petersburg after all? Would revenue sharing have been put in place sooner? Would it not have been put in place at all?

Recent Yankee history might have been much different as well. In February 1990, Fay Vincent handed George Steinbrenner a lifetime ban for his hiring of gambler Howard Spira to dig up dirt on Dave Winfield and his foundation. The ban was lifted three years later, after Vincent had been forced out of office and Steinbrenner friend Bud Selig was the acting Commissioner. Would Giamatti have handed down the same sentence? If so would he have reinstated Steinbrenner at any point?

It's all useless conjecture, but it's also intriguing to wonder what might have been. While Rose, Vincent, and Thornburgh all knew Giamatti to some extent, none of them can truly know what he would have done had he served longer as Commissioner, and neither do I. What we do know is that Bart Giamatti died too soon, and it was baseball's loss. It's unfortunate that the baseball media didn't see fit to remember that yesterday.

Morning News and Notes

Good morning Fackers. Happy Humpday. Let's get over the hill with some news and notes:

• Chad Gaudin will take Sergio Mitre's turn in the rotation and start Thursday's series opener in Toronto. As you may recall, Mitre was spinning a gem in his start last Saturday when he took an A.J. Pierzynski liner off his throwing arm in the seventh. No word on yet on when Mitre will be available again.



• It's worth mentioning that Joba Chamberlain's next start will be Friday, in the game after Gaudin's spot start. Given the latest Joba plan, I wouldn't expect Joba to go more than three or four innings Friday. Since August 1st, Gaudin has made just 6 appearances covering just 17.1 innings. So over two days the Yankees will probably need eight or nine innings out of their pen and Alfredo Aceves is really the only Yankee reliever who can go more than two innings at a time. Thankfully, the Yankees currently have a ten man bullpen due to September call-ups, so they should survive.



• Speaking of September call-ups, yesterday I wondered why Jonathan Albaladejo wasn't included in the first round of additions. Turns out he took one to the eye while playing catch the other day and is currently day-to-day. He should be up once he's back to full strength.



• In other minor league news, three Yankees have taken home some hardware. Highly touted catching prospect Austin Romine was named Florida State League (high A) Player of the Year. At AAA, Shelley Duncan was named International League MVP and Austin Jackson was named IL Rookie of the Year.



• Mark Feinsand of the Daily News tweeted that both Duncan and Jackson will be recalled later this month. Remember, as we discussed yesterday, AJax would have to be added to the currently full 40 man roster first.



• Brett Gardner took live BP yesterday for the first time since his thumb injury and could begin a minor league rehab assignment as soon as Thursday.



• Nick Swisher's home run at Camden Yards last night was his fourth in that ballpark in 2009. He also has four at Tropicana Field and three at Comerica Park. Swisher has three home runs at Yankee Stadium this year.



• Carlos Pena leads the American League with 38 home runs. He has twenty home runs on the road. Nick Swisher is approximately 24th in the AL with 24 home runs. He too has twenty home runs on the road.



• Jerry Hairston Jr took over in left field as a defensive replacement in the bottom of the seventh last night. In the eighth, he had another defensive misplay, as he let an awkward hop by him, turning a Brian Roberts single into a double. Ken Singleton, calling the game for YES, intended to describe it as an "erractic hop", but initially mispoke, calling it an "erotic hop". Funny, but not quite as good as Michael Kay's "drop a deuce" line earlier this year.



• The George Steinbrenner Yankeeography premiers tonight following the game.



• ESPN normally functions as the root of all evil. Yesterday however, they made a gracious move, agreeing to allow the Sunday September 27th game against the Red Sox, to which they have the TV rights, to begin at 1 PM rather than 8 PM to accomodate Yom Kippur, which begins at sundown. No word yet as to whether Joe Morgan and Steve Phillips plan to use the opportunity atone for being a awful announcers.

We'll be back in a bit with more for you.

Yanks Slug Their Way To Another Victory

A.J. Burnett's sub-par August bled over into September last night but the Yankees' offense launched 5 home runs in his defense and the bullpen provided a scoreless 3 2/3 innings to allow the Yankees to take the victory in Camden Yards.

Three of those homers came off of long ball machine David Martinez, two of which were courtesy of Jorge Posada. He and A.J. Burnett clearly didn't combine for a very good outing as battery mates and Jorge twice forgot the count in his at bats. In the second inning he stood the plate waiting for a pitch after ball four was called, and then three innings later he started walking towards the dugout after strike two was called, only to return to the plate to take Hernandez yard two pitches later. He also was nicked with a foul ball in the eighth inning but told Kim Jones he was okay in the postgame interview.

Nick Swisher and Eric Hinkse went back to back in the 7th, the former breaking a 6-6 tie and the latter putting the Yanks up by 3, which turned out to be the decisive margin. Amazingly, Swisher has hit more homers at Camden Yards this year (4) than he has at Yankee Stadium. He was 13 round-trippers at Oriole Park, the most of any park he hasn't called home.

Damaso Marte was the first to come out of the bullpen, throwing a perfect inning spanning from the 6th to the 7th before being replaced by David Robertson. D-Rob is working his way up the bullpen ladder, and has been used more often in high leverage situations as of late. He didn't disappoint tonight, but was lifted after giving up a double to Brian Roberts in the 8th. Phil Coke closed out the frame and Mariano Rivera picked up his second save in as many days, giving him the Major League lead with 38.

I'm sure the Yankees would have preferred a better start from Burnett but the bottom line is that they got away with it. He gave up six runs in 5 1/3 IP, but a whopping 11 of the 25 balls hit in play against Burnett dropped for hits (.423 BABIP). Hopefully he was just unlucky once again. I wouldn't point to Posada's game calling this time around as the cause for the poor performance. It seemed as if they weren't on the same page again but even if that's true, Jorgie more than compensated for it with his bat.

The Red Sox beat the Rays tonight, and the Rangers topped the Blue Jays. With the Rays sitting six games back, it's starting to look more and more like the Wild Card will come down to the Rangers and Sox with 3.5 games currently separating them.

Game 132: Reelin' In The Years

The Yankees are probably sad to see August go. After winning two-thirds of their games in July (18-9), they took three-quarters of their games in August (21-7). If they carried out that .750 winning percentage through the entire season, it would top the 1998 team's record of 114-48 by almost 10 games. It was clearly and by far the Yankees' best month of the year as they expanded their lead in the division from 0.5 games to 6.5 helped greatly by going 6-1 against the Red Sox.

A.J. Burnett wasn't much help though. The Yankees lost 7 games in the month, and Burnett was on the hook for four of them including the 14-1 disaster against the Sox during which he gave up 9 runs.

Despite striking out more than one batter per inning and recording his highest K/BB, August was Burnett's worst month of this season, as he compiled an ERA over 6 and a WHIP of 1.473. Some of that may be explained by the fact that his BABIP was .337, whereas it had been below .300 in every other month this year and is .288 for his career. Nonetheless, his season ERA was 3.53 heading into his start on August 1st and now stands at 4.10.

It sounds pretty bad, but he really only had two poor starts out of six last month, one 7 run shelling against the White Sox on the 1st and the disaster against the Red Sox on the 22nd. Those were also his only two non-quality starts of his last 13 which include his great run through June and July with a 1.68 ERA and 6 wins in 8 outings.

The Orioles will send 24 year old right hander David Hernandez to the mound tonight. No, not this David Hernandez. He probably throws like a chick. According to his Wikipedia page, the David Hernandez the Yanks will be facing only got drafted by the Orioles because of the connections his father had within the organization. Seriously, check it out.

Hernandez is a fastball-slider-change up pitcher, who struck out 10.2 batters per nine innings in the minor leagues, but has only K'd about half that many in his 74 innings in the majors. He's got a bloated WHIP of 1.520, and K/BB of only 1.34 and has given up 14 HRs in 13 starts including 10 in the month of August. Despite those poor peripherals, Hernandez carries a 4.24 ERA. The Yanks have already seen him this year, and he held them to one run over 6 innings back on July 20th.

The Yanks head into September on a four game winning streak, as hot as they've been all year. The 5 call ups will walk into the clubhouse today and become a part of the best team in baseball for what figures to be an interesting month of baseball. Soon postseason berths will be clinched and teams will be officially eliminated. All that's gone on throughout the course of the year solidify and things start to fall into place.

September is a month of transition. August becomes October and the dog days become cool nights. You feel the energy and freedom of summer being inexorably pulled away and replaced with the chill and constraints of fall. No one wants to see summer end, but in baseball, that's what you look forward to all year.

Your everlasting summer,
You can see it fading fast.
So you grab a piece of something,
That you think is gonna last.

Well, you wouldn't know a diamond,
If you held it in your hand.
The things you think are precious,
I can't understand.

Yanks Make Minor Move

Midnight last night/this morning marked the deadline for teams to acquire players and have them eligible for post-season play. While the Dodgers made two fairly big deals, the White Sox officially gave up, and the Rockies were tricked into thinking Jose Contreras would help their rotation, the Yankees made a minor move, acquiring outfielder Freddy Guzman from the Orioles organization for a player to be named later.

This is not a move made with an eye towards the post-season. Guzman was not added to the 40 man roster, nor will he be, so he will not even be eligible for post-season play. And that's a good thing, because Freddy Guzman is a career .213/.263/.281 (47 OPS+) hitter in 95 career MLB PA and has hit a miserable .219/.261/.289 in three AAA stops this year covering 355 PA.

However, there may be some value in this move in as much as Guzman is a warm body to occupy the Scranton roster for the final week of their season and their playoff run. Guzman's presence will make it easier for the Yankees to recall Ramiro Pena, Shelley Duncan, or maybe even Austin Jackson if they so choose.

Mitch Williams Is An Idiot

You probably knew that already anyway. If you don't recall as such from his playing days, perhaps you've listened to him trip over his own tongue repeatedly on the MLB Network this year. If not, simply refer to the picture below.

"I cut the sleeves off because it looks awesome, now get your head in the game!"

Last night, after finishing the recap, I checked a few other Yankee sites and had MLBN on in the background. I was only half listening. I noticed that recently DFA'd former Yankee and all-around good guy Tony Clark had joined the studio team - good for him. Combined with Sean Casey, last night's panel had two of the most well-liked Big Leaguers of the past twenty years or so.

But for all the goodwill that The Mayor and Tony the former Tiger can generate, one meandering argument from The Wild Thing ruined it all for me.

I'm not even quite sure what point Williams was trying to make. Maybe that's because I wasn't dedicating my full attention, or maybe it's because Williams hasn't made a lucid argument in his entire time with the fledgling network.

Regardless, the conversation started with the increasingly tiresome AL MVP debate. Williams stated that Mauer is at a disadvantage because he's a catcher and his legs are going to go on him at some point before the season's over. Except then Mitch said that Mauer is at an advantage because he missed the first month of the season, so he's fresher than he would be. Ok, advantage: push.

Then Derek Jeter came up. And Mitch made some point about batting average being an overvalued statistic. "Wow," I thought, "Mitch Williams is making a salient point."

Then Mitch took a turn for the inane. For some reason, Williams started comparing Jeter to Jimmy Rollins, who while a shortstop, plays in an entirely different league - so I'm not quite sure what any of it had to do with the AL MVP discussion.

That said, Williams, again emphasizing that batting average is an overvalued statistic, illustrated this by pointing out that despite a cavernous gap between them in batting average, Jimmy Rollins has 10 more doubles than Derek Jeter and has a fielding percentage that is superior by .007. End of story.

Well that's just great Mitch. Now let's finish the discussion. A .007 advantage in fielding percentage is nearly meaningless. The average Major League shortstop last year fielded 728 chances. A .007 difference in fielding percentage means that over the course of a season Rollins would turn roughly five more chances into outs. Five. That's less than one per month over the course of the season.

Of course, since Mitch is so plugged in to which stats are overvalued, he probably knows that fielding percentage is not a very accurate method of measuring a player's defensive value. A more advanced metric would be UZR/150. Now there's no denying that over the course of their respective careers, Jimmy Rollins has been a much, much, much better defensive player than Derek Jeter, holding a career edge in UZR/150 of 10.2 runs. However, this year, Derek Jeter's UZR/150 is 6.8 as opposed to Rollins' 5.9. So for 2009 at least, advantage Jeter.

How about offense? Well yes Mitch, Rollins does have a whopping 10 double lead. How about the other three types of hits a batter can get? 2009 slugging percentage Jimmy Rollins: .415. 2009 slugging percentage Derek Jeter: .482. And before anyone mentions a word about the new Yankee Stadium, let's remember that Citizens Bank Park is also very hitter friendly. Its one year park factors (102/101) are only slightly less offensive than Yankee Stadium's (103/103), and its multiyear factors (103/102) are nearly identical to how the Stadium has played in its brief history.

But, offense is more than just doubles. As Mitch knows, batting average is overrated. On base percentage is probably the best single measure of offensive value. 2009 OBP Rollins: .290. 2009 OBP Jeter: .398. Huge, huge, huge advantage Jeter. Both men bat leadoff. Over the course of a full season, Jeter will be on base roughly 83 more times based on their current OBPs. Jimmy Rollins' OBP is the absolute lowest of any Major Leaguer with at least 450 plate appearances this year. There are but six American Leaguers with a better OBP than Jeter.

How about something really advanced and all-encompassing: 2009 Wins Above Replacement Rollins: 1.8. 2009 Wins Above Replacement Jeter: 5.9. Once again, huge advantage Jeter. He's been worth more than three times as much to his team this year.

I'm not trying to bag on Jimmy Rollins. I'm not trying to suggest that Jeter is or isn't the AL MVP. But I am absolutely stupefied as to what point Mitch Williams was trying to make. That Joe Mauer has legs? That Jeter's not the MVP? That Jeter hits for average and that's all he's good for? That Jimmy Rollins isn't having an absolutely abysmal season? I don't know. I'm not sure Mitch knows. But, by virtue of his employment at MLBN, the guy is supposed to be a national authority on the sport. Whatever point he was trying to make, it was poorly, poorly constructed and its delivery was even worse.

In summary:
Joe Mauer's legs = a blessing and a curse, he may want to hedge his bets and cut one off
Batting average = overrated
Doubles = underrated
Fielding percentage = just right
UZR/150, OBP, WAR = non-existent
Mitch Williams = rivaling John Kruk for dumbest '93 Phillie turned analyst

An Interview With Mike Pagliarulo

Mike Pagliarulo was the Yankees' third baseman from July of 1984 until he was traded to San Diego in July of 1989. He was one of my childhood favorites.

Pags' Baseline Group backs the website Dugout Central, where I contributed before joining Fack Youk. He agreed to an email interview with me last month. We'll run the full interview in a few parts later this week, but a sneak preview with some of the highlights is currently posted at River Ave Blues.

If you're reading here, you're likely already reading at RAB, but if you're not, you really should be. Either way, head on over and give it a read. And be sure to check back here later this week for the full interview.

(Photo from the NY Post)

Not To Rain On The Pettitte Parade, But...

[Update: I need to work on my PitchFX interpretation a bit. Will from IIATM,S sets me straight and you should probably just read that]

It wasn't just the magic in the air and the abundance of Yankees fans at Camden Yards cheering him on last night that helped Andy Pettitte flirt with perfection:

[The red squares are called strikes and the green squares are balls]

According to the PitchFX tool on Brooks Baseball, Home Plate Umpire Marvin Hudson called 24 of the 104 pitches (23%) Pettitte threw last night as strikes when they should have been balls. Conversely, he called only two balls inside the zone strikes, both very close pitches at the knees. Not that the strike zone is perfect denoted by the black box in the chart above, but it is the width of home plate and gives you a pretty good idea of what is what.

Pettite threw 73 "strikes" last night, but only 8 of them were swinging. He threw 32 breaking pitches, 24 of them for strikes, no whiffs. None. Is ths because he has all of a sudden developed an incredibly deceptive curveball and slider, or because the pitches were not in the zone?

Below, I drew the red box to represent what Pettitte's actual strike zone looked like last night.

When you look at the red box as the strikezone instead, there are 13 "strikes" being called balls, which makes it twice as accurate as Hudson's zone, with which he incorrectly identified 26 pitches. The only problem is that the zone is roughly twice the size it should be. Home plate is 17" inches wide, but apparently to Hudson last night, it was nearly 36". The difference between the highest and lowest pitch he called for strikes, just for Pettitte, was more like 39".

Sure, Hudson was more or less consistent in calling pitches for both teams, mainly in terms of expanding the strikezone inside to right handed batters (which was more beneficial to Pettitte as a lefty), but in what other profession does being consistently wrong make it okay? The strikezone has to be a little subjective since it varies with each hitter, but not to the point where it can be doubled in size, right?

At certain point, Hudson had to know that he was calling pitches that were well off the plate for strikes. Andy Pettitte sure did, because he took advantage of it again and again. He also changed speeds beautifully, but some of the credit has to go to the extra-large target he was throwing to.

So while some might be tempted to blame Jerry Hairston, Jr. for his error in the 7th inning which broke up Pettitte's perfect game, they should be thanking Marvin Hudson for his ridiculous strikezone which made Pettitte's dominant performance possible in the first place.

A Look At September Call-Ups

Good morning Fackers - at least as good as it can be now that the summer months are officially over. One of the many things that makes baseball unique when compared to other sports is the expansion of rosters each September. Baseball goes through approximately 85% of its season with a 25 man roster. Then, right as the season enters its homestretch, when the games are supposed to matter most, the permitted roster size increases by a whopping 60%. Other sports don't expand their rosters at all.

But I don't have a problem with the practice. I think it's fun when the rosters expand. Teams that are out of it get a look at their prospects, teams that are in it get to bring in some reinforcements to give them a bit more roster flexibility.

Thankfully, the Yankees are in the latter category. So even though others have already weighed in on this elsewhere, I've long been planning to take a look at this once the calendar turned to September. So here's the official Fack Youk look at potential Yankee call-ups.

Only players on the 40 man roster are eligible for recall. Right off the bat, the Yankees lose three of their potential 15 call-ups, as Ian Kennedy, Christian Garcia, and Kevin Cash are all out for the year with injuries. I suppose the Yankees could DFA Cash to open a spot; but I'm not quite sure what the rules are on that is it pertains to an injured player. I'd imagine if they could, they would have already. Why else would they be keeping him around?

A fourth player that can be ruled out is 2007 first round draft pick, Andrew Brackman. The tall righty didn't make his pro debut until this year thanks to Tommy John surgery, and after a decent start to the season, he's absolutely lost it: 2-12 with a 6.26 ERA, 1.77 WHIP, 6.8 BB/9, 10 hit batsmen, and an astounding 26 wild pitches. He's spent the whole season with low-A Charleston, so even if he were effective, he'd be a long, long shot for a recall.

Xavier Nady and Chien-Ming Wang are both on the 60 day DL, so they do not count towards the forty man. Brett Gardner is on the 15 day DL (and nearly ready to begin a rehab assignment), so he does count towards the 40 man, and of course will be activated as soon as he's ready.

That leaves ten possibilities. Six of these possibilities are pitchers. Given the Yankees willingness to carry an ungodly amount of pitchers for much of the season, the current uncertainty about Sergio Mitre after Saturday's come-backer, and the plan to intentionally truncate the length of Joba Chamberlain's starts, it's a safe bet that most, if not all, of these pitchers will be recalled. Some of these names are familiar: Jonathan Albaladejo, Mark Melancon, Edwar Ramirez, and Anthony Claggett have all seen time with the big club this year. I expect that Albaladejo and Melancon will be recalled right away. For Ramirez and Claggett, this month could represent their last chance to stick with the organization.

The remaining two pitchers on the 40 man are left-handers who have yet to play in the Major Leagues: Mike Dunn and Wilkins DeLaRosa. Dunn is a fifth year pro who was converted to pitching from the outfield after he struggled through 219 minor league PAs to the tune of .499 OPS. He spent most of his pitching career as a starter before being made a full time reliever last season. He's split this year between AA Trenton and AAA Scranton. He's striking out an impressive 12.1 per 9, but walking an unacceptable 5.7 per 9, including 6.5 per 9 at AAA. He's also allowing an unsightly 1.43 baserunners per inning. Given Phil Coke's recent struggles the team may want another left hander in the pen, and Dunn would be the first choice. If he doesn't get a call up, he's off to the Arizona Fall League.

Like Dunn, DeLaRosa is a converted outfielder, who OPS'd at .621 through 533 PAs in his first two pro seasons. Now in his third year as a pitcher, De La Rosa has spent most of the season in Trenton's rotation after making three starts with high-A Tampa. Combined, he's 5-5 on the year with a 3.17 ERA and 1.25 WHIP. He also has experience out of the pen, with 30 of his 63 pro appearances coming in relief. I'm not expecting to see him get called up.

Amongst the position players, Francisco Cervelli and Ramiro Pena are sure bets to be recalled right away. Nearly every team will be recalling a third catcher this month. Cervelli was impressive during his stint earlier this year and certainly deserves another look. Jorge Posada's finger injury makes Cervelli's presence all the more necessary and with Jose Molina's contract expiring at season's end, this will double as a final audition for Frankie. Cervelli was off the Scranton roster with a hand injury for about three weeks earlier in August, but he spent a few rehab games in the Gulf Coast Rookie League and rejoined Scranton a week ago.

Meanwhile, the Yankee bench has been short since Pena was optioned down on August 21st. His absence has left Jerry Hairston Jr as the lone back-up infielder, back-up centerfielder, and he's also been serving as the emergency catcher with Posada's injury. Pena's recall will ease the burden on Hairston a bit and help the Yankees to rest Alex Rodriguez, Derek Jeter, and Robinson Cano down the stretch.

Shelley Duncan and Juan Miranda are the last two position players on the 40 man roster. If either are recalled, it probably won't be right away. Both Duncan and Miranda were recalled for a day earlier this year, but neither got into a game. However, both do have Major League experience: Duncan in both of the last two years, Miranda with 14 September plate appearances last year. Both have destroyed AAA pitching this year, with 48 HRs between them.

The Yankees may want to showcase Miranda a bit. He's a first baseman exclusively and the Yankees have other plans there for the next seven years or so. But he can hit - .291/.377/.483 in Scranton the last two years - and he's taking up a precious 40 man spot. The Yankees will likely use him to rest Mark Teixeira down the stretch and to dangle him as trade bait for the off-season.

Conceivably, the Yankees could make some moves to add players to the 40 man and recall them this month. Zach Kroenke is another lefty reliever, with a 1.96 ERA and 1.20 WHIP. He strikes out less batters per nine than Dunn (7.1), but also walks fewer per nine (3.8). Like Dunn, he's off to Arizona this fall if he's not brought up.



Kevin Russo is primarily a second baseman with experience at third base and, and minimally at shortstop and the outfield corners. He doesn't have much power, but has great on base skills with a .415 OBP this year. As I stated earlier this summer, I'd like to see the organization give him the Ramiro Pena treatment and make a true utility man out of him. That said, he'd be redundant with Hairston and Pena already on the roster, but he's a name to remember as he'll need to be added to the 40 man this off-season. Cody Ransom is also at Scranton, and if the Yankees needed to add another infielder he'd likely have the inside track over Russo.

Austin Jackson is one of the Yanks top prospects, and we've looked at him intermittently over the course of the year. AJax has had a fine year at Scranton as a 22 year-old. Between his performance and the Gardner injury, a September call-up for Jackson seemed like a sure thing earlier this year. But now, given the 40 man situation and the recent indications that the Yankees want to give him another season at AAA, I don't think we'll see him in 2009. He does need to be added to the 40 man after the season though, so there is a chance the Yankees may try to add him now and give him a taste of the Majors.

One last thing to keep in mind is that the minor league seasons don't end for another week and that Scranton currently holds a 2.5 game lead in their division. While the Big Club certainly won't put themselves at a disadvantage to help Scranton's post-season chances, they do need to keep enough warm bodies in AAA until the season wraps.

[UPDATE 9:30 AM: Jon Heyman tweets that it's Melancon, Dunn, Pena, and Cervelli for now (h/t lenNY's Yankees). I'm surprised Albaladejo isn't included. Girardi's comments yesterday were "more than two pitchers"]