ALCS Game 6: Just Like Tom Thumb's Blues

After a fairly interminable wait, the Yankees will play their 8th game in 21 days this evening. Postseason baseball might be different because of the colder weather, lower scoring and the level of tension, but it's also unique in its infrequency. It's tedious for us fans to wait out these delays but it's probably equally unnatural for the players - who are accustomed to playing nearly every day - to take the field about one-third as often. The games themselves are made up primarily of lulls in the action, but they occur with such regularity that it's tough to swallow when the most anticipated games of the year are the most sporadically dispersed.

The Angels might have snatched the momentum back when Brian Fuentes got Nick Swisher to pop out to end Game 5, but said force was then flown across country, beaten down with cold and rain and put on the shelf for another day. The Bombers are back in the Bronx and now retain the homefield advantage that they've used so successfully to their advantage this year. They've only lost back to back games at home once since the middle of June, over which time they've sported a gaudy .782 winning percentage.

Joe Saunders takes the Angels' season into his hands tonight. The Yankees couldn't get much going against him in Game 2 at the Stadium, mustering only six hits, a walk and two runs in 7 innings. He left the game with the score tied but the Yanks of course rallied in the 13th inning to take a two game lead to Anaheim.

Mike Scioscia's decision to go with Saunders in Game 2 was widely questioned, but it's looking pretty good at this point. Instead of Scott Kazmir, who the Yanks smacked around in Game 4, Saunders will be trusted with the Angels' season on the line, which looks like a significantly better proposition with the benefit of hindsight.

The Yanks send their own lefty to the mound tonight, Andy Pettitte. He had a shaky start in Game 3 in Anaheim, allowing 7 hits and 3 ER in 6 1/3 IP while striking out only 2 batters. Tonight he'll be put in the same position he succeeded in during the Minnesota series; starting a game with the chance to advance the Pinstripes to the next round.

River Ave. Blues took a look at Pettitte's performances in previous opportunities to seal up playoff series yesterday and our old friend PeteAbe was there to shore up the analysis. By Pete's count, Pettitte has a 4.14 ERA and his teams are 6-4 in those games, including his time in Houston. Not sparkling by any stretch but not too bad either.

The return home for the Yanks coincides nicely with the song for tonight. Bob Dylan recorded Just Like Tom Thumb's Blues for the album Highway 61 Revisited in New York only three days after controversial and much maligned Newport Folk Festival appearance. On July 29th, 1965, Dylan made the fairly brash artistic statement of playing a set with an electric guitar and members of the Paul Butterfield Blues Band. After a chilly reception, he stopped and walked offstage after his third song, Like A Rolling Stone, and was serenaded with boos from the crowd.

The most common explanation for the reception was that the crowd was not pleased with his choice of an electric guitar but alternatively, it has been said that they were annoyed with the length of the set. Regardless, there was much angst among the fans in attendance - even some of Dylan's supporters.

While backstage, Dylan was convinced to finish the set by festival MC Peter Yarrow and singer Joan Baez. He finished his set with three acoustic tunes and the same fans who had booed him off the stage earlier showered him with applause and pleaded for an encore. Fans can be a fickle bunch, can't they?

The song is about returning to New York from an especially bleak trip out West ("When you're lost in the rain in Juarez"). It appropriately has six verses and the final and most appropriate one - about going back to New York under dubious circumstances - is quoted below.

I started out on burgundy,
But soon hit the harder stuff,
Everybody said they'd stand behind me,
When the game got rough,
But the joke was on me,
There was nobody even there to call my bluff,
I'm going back to New York City,
I do believe I've had enough.

Yanks Hit Century Mark, Sweep Sox, Clinch AL East & Homefield

As Jay laid out in the preview, with a single victory this afternoon, the Yankees had an opportunity to accomplish a great number of things: reaching the 100 victory mark for the first tie since 2004, sweeping the Sox and evening the season series, clinching the AL East for the first time since 2006, and clinching homefield advantage for the duration of their stay in the post-season. Mother Nature delayed things by about an hour, but neither the rain nor the commentary of Joe Morgan and Steve Phillips were enough to put a damper on today.

Andy Pettitte made his second post shoulder fatigue start. Despite allowing ten baserunners in six innings and staking the Sox to an early 2-0 lead, Pettitte's start was an encouraging one. Once again he showed no signs of trouble stemming from the issues that hampered him earlier in the month, and in classic Pettitte fashion, he found a way to work himself out of the trouble he worked into. The Sox extracted some retribution for Jon Lester and Daisuke Matsuzaka by getting Pettite with a Mike Lowell comebacker in the first, but Pettitte survived unscathed.

His offense got him out of the early hole he dug. Melky Cabrera cut the deficit in half with a solo shot to right field in the third inning, and Hideki Matsui delivered a big two out two RBI base hit in the sixth to give the Yankees the lead. Mark Teixeira capped the scoring with a towering solo shot in the eighth, leaving him one short of Carlos Pena for the AL lead.

How good were things for the Yanks this afternoon? With Phil Hughes and David Robertson unavailable, Brian Bruney relieved Andy Pettitte and retired all five batters he faced while throwing two thirds of his pitches for strikes. Phil Coke finished the eighth by striking out David Ortiz. Mariano Rivera came on for the third day in a row, and just as he did Saturday, he brough the tying run to the plate. He worked out of the jam though, and closed out the game to clinch the division, just like old times.

A post-game clubhouse champagne celebration ensued; with any luck it will be the first of four this fall. While the youngsters and new-comers like Teixeira, Nick Swisher, A.J. Burnett, and CC Sabathia enjoyed the moment, the guys that had been there a bit longer were somewhat more subdued. Regardless of seniority, to a man, all recognized that this was just the first step. The team now has the season's final week to get prepared for step two.

(Photos)

Game 151: Thorn In My Pride

Andy Pettitte returns to the mound tonight, having been skipped due to shoulder fatigue following his start 10 days ago. Pettitte has thrown two bullpens since then, reportedly pain free. He does seem to have some lingering concern that the shoulder could cause an early exit for him tonight, as the comments he made to the media following his Friday bullpen session seemed to vary by writer. Thankfully, Sergio Mitre took one for the team and did an excellent job in five innings relief of Joba Chamberlain yesterday, leaving the Yankees with their full bullpen to back Pettitte tonight.

Pettitte is a pitcher with a lot of pride, and as we've examined earlier this year he's also a pitcher with an incentive laden contract that rewards him with each start he makes. Sports Illustrated's Jon Heyman reported last week that Pettitte begged the Yankees to let him pitch through his shoulder issues. Given the source, I'm not sure if that's true or not. Pettitte's been around long enough to know that the post-season is what matters, and that given some of the other issues in the Yankee rotation right now, a lot is riding on his left shoulder.

In two starts against the Angels this year, Pettitte has been pretty bad, allowing 11 ER and 22 baserunners in 10 innings of work. His last start against them came in the disastrous pre-All-Star break series, after which both Pettitte and the Yankees as a whole went on a very impressive run.

Joe Saunders will go for the Halos. The lefty is 13-7 with a 4.75 ERA and 1.46 WHIP on the year. He's also allowed 27 longballs, tied for second most in the AL. He faced the Yankees once this year, in the July series, and allowed 11 baserunners and surrendered 5 ER in 5 innings of work. He did not factor into the decision. That start included, Saunders is carrying a 5.31 ERA, 1.69 WHIP, and .864 OPS against in his last 11 starts, yet he's 5-2 and the Angels 7-4 in those games.

As Jay touched on earlier today and Ben Kabak at River Ave. Blues also pointed out, much will be made these next three days of the Yankees' struggles against the Angels. With home field still up for grabs, the media will place emphasis upon these games that will likely go beyond their actual importance. Nevertheless, the numbers aren't pretty. The Yankees are 13-23 against the Angels over the last four seasons, and are 4-14 at The Big A. The Angels, particularly in their home whites, have been a big thorn in the Yankees' side for a number of years now. Nothing that happens these next three days will be life or death, but it would sure be nice for the Yankees to erase the memory of that awful July series and take steps towards ensuring that a potential ALCS match-up will have no more than three games played in Orange County.



Does it make you want to scream?
Did you ever like a bad dream?
Sometimes life is obscene.

My angels, my devils, my thorn in my pride

Calm Before The Storm

The next two series for the Yankees, separated by yet another off day Thursday, should serve as a nice tune up for the postseason and will represent the last meaningful games before the playoffs begin. During this six game stretch, the Yanks will certainly clinch a playoff berth but can go a long way towards securing the division and home field advantage as well.

The Yanks would have to falter badly while one of the other teams gets extremely hot to lose HFA or the AL East. If the Yanks go 5-7 over their final 12, the Red Sox would have to go 11-3 just to tie them and the Angels 11-2. Keep in mind that the Yanks have 3 games against the Royals and 3 against the Rays mixed in there as well.

So even though the Yanks just went 3-5 against the Orioles, Blue Jays and Mariners, and Pettitte is hurt and Joba sucks and Mo blew a save and Ian Snell just shut down the offense... let's try not to hit the panic button.

Expect both the series in Anaheim as well as the one in the Bronx against the Red Sox to extrapolated to predict the Yankees' success or failure in the postseason. There will be much talk about "playoff atmosphere" and possibly "must-win" games. Plenty will be said about the Yanks ability to get it done in the clutch and judgments will be made about whether or not they can get it done under pressure.

In reality, the outcome of these games has hardly any predictive value in looking towards the playoffs. Did the 8 consecutive games that the Red Sox won against the Yankees to begin the season do a very good job of predicting the Yankees sweep of them in early August? Then why would they dynamic change when the playoffs roll around? Answer: It doesn't, it's just a function of the media attempting to take the temperature of the team after every game in order to foreshadow what's going to happen when the games really matter.

Right now, teams are playing with house money and expanded rosters and as we know all too well, anything can happen in October. So whatever happens over the next six games, let's try to keep things in perspective.

The Fight For The Two Spot

I'm aware that assigning numerical values to the Yankee starting pitchers is largely an exercise in futility. Aside from determining the order they begin the year in (which isn't always the case), the hierarchy is largely meaningless throughout the regular season. Every team's rotation gets jumbled up based on off days and suspensions and rainouts over the course of the season, so relatively early on you're getting match ups where one team's "#1" squares off against another's "#4" and so forth.

Once the postseason nears though, the ranking takes on a whole new importance. Questions arise about the postseason rotation and who will start what game in the ALDS. Max Kellerman used to argue that Game 2 was actually the most pivotal game of a 5 game series because it always swings the series between 1-1 and 2-0, either pulling one team back to even or putting them on the brink of elimination.

Since Kellerman's theory is a bit radical, I think we can safely assume that Joe Girardi is going to attempt to line up his rotation with his best pitcher starting Game 1 and so on. Since only three games are guaranteed, it also matters who the top three pitches are. It's clear that CC Sabathia slots in at the top of the rotation and Joba Chamberlain would be their 4th starter. So the question comes down to Burnett vs. Pettitte for the number two slot.

NoMaas makes the case for Pettitte and it's hard to argue against it. Pettitte has been on a better run recently and his numbers for the season are stronger as well. Both have made 27 starts and you might be surprised to learn that Burnett has pitched only 2 1/3 more innings than Pettitte with each averaging just under 6 1/3 each time out. Pettitte has a better ERA, WHIP, FIP, K/BB, HR/9. Burnett leads in quality starts 18 to 15 (fairly significant) and has struck out more per 9 IP while allowing fewer hits, but has walked one more per 9 (which is how his WHIP is worse).

It's worth noting that on June 20th, their ERAs were almost exactly the same (4.24 and 4.26) but Burnett proceeded to go on a run that saw his drop to 3.53 at one point while Pettitte's rose as high as 4.85. Burnett's great stretch was better than anything Pettitte has done this season and the reality is that upside is always tantalizing in sports.

Burnett has never pitched in the postseason (he was injured with the 2003 Marlins) and Pettitte has thrown 218 1/3 playoff innings to a 3.98 ERA over the course of 25 series.

Moshe at the Yankees Universe introduces another interesting factor: home/road splits. Oddly, although Burnett is the righty of the two, he has better numbers at Yankee Stadium while Pettitte has done his best work on the road, with a roughly 1.3 run difference in ERA in both directions. If the Yanks hang on to win the division, Game 2 will be at home. Jason from Heartland Pinstripes would prefer to give Burnett the start if this turns out to be the case.

It will be interesting to see how heavily Joe Girardi weights September performance into the equation. With about 5 or 6 starts remaining for each, much can change. If the ALDS started five days from now, I'd probably go with Pettitte. If Burnett has a decent September I'd probably choose him. Either way, every start in the postseason is important and the Yanks are lucky to have guys as good as those two jockeying for position.

Game 131: Eight Miles High

As the Yankees begin a quick 7 game road trip to Toronto via Baltimore, they hold an 11.5 game cushion for a playoff spot, a 6 game lead in the division, a 4.5 game edge in the race for homefield advantage and trump the best team in the National League by 3.5 games as well. They took off during their last series against Baltimore and haven't touched the ground since.

The last time the Yanks began a series against the Orioles, they were trailing the Red Sox by one game shortly after the All Star break. The Yanks took three close games against the O's while the Sox lost three tight ones to the Rangers and the balance of power the the top of the AL East hasn't shifted since.

Andy Pettitte will be the first of the Yanks' top three starters to get the call for this series in Baltimore. Andy rebounded from his poor start in the blowout against Boston with a solid effort against the Rangers last Wednesday. Over seven innings he allowed two runs and seven hits while striking out seven, more than enough to collect his 11th win of the season.

In his last six starts, dating back to July 30th and including the clunker in Boston, Pettitte has a 2.60 ERA and has struck out more than one batter per inning. It's even better when compared to last August when Pettitte went 1-3 with a 5.84 ERA due mostly to a nagging injury to his shoulder. Having a healthy Andy Pettitte has been crucial to the Yankees ability to pull away from the pack in the second half this year.

Taking the ball for the Orioles tonight will be Jeremy Guthrie, the guy the Orioles thought was going to be their ace at the beginning of the season. Despite the support of his #1 fan, this has not been the case. He's struck out just 87 batters in 154 IP while walking 54. Even after two 7 inning, 1 ER efforts against the White Sox and Twins in his last two starts, Guthrie's ERA sits at 5.26 and his WHIP at 1.40 for the season. He has a chance to pick up three straight wins tonight though, something he hasn't done for over a year.

A-Rod gets the night off all together tonight as Jerry Hairston, Jr. gets the start at third and Hideki Matsui will DH.

The Yanks are 9-3 against both the Jays and the O's on the season and unlike the bird-named teams they'll take on during this road trip, they are certainly soaring at the moment.

Eight miles high and when you touch down,

You’ll find that it’s stranger than known,
Signs in the street that say where you’re going,
Are somewhere just being their own.

Nowhere is there warmth to be found,
Among those afraid of losing their ground,
Rain gray town known for it’s sound,
In places small faces unbound.

Why Do 8-8 Teams Host Playoff Games?

Like Joe, I would have picked the Colts and the Falcons yesterday. Objectively, analytically, theoretically they seemed like the better teams. Manning's Colts had won 9 straight, and Matty Ice's Falcons had taken 5 out of their last 6. They both had better records than the 8-8 division winners, and were Vegas favorites. Now we are left to grapple with annoying football analyst talking points like home field advantage.

In a single game, how much does it really matter? Ironically, in baseball, where you have the tangible advantage of batting in the bottom half of the inning, home field advantage creates a 54/46 advantage, slightly less significant than in football (56/44). Vegas says 3 points, Bill Simmons says "nawt that impawtahnt any mahwah", so who really knows? One would imagine crowd noise certainly can have a greater motivational impact on players in more physical-effort-oriented sports. The adrenaline spike provided by the crowd's cheers isn't going to help Mariano Rivera locate his cutter, but it might help Brandon Jacobs punch it into the endzone. Regardless, can we just give HFA to the better team?

It's bad enough that winning a division automatically grants a team a playoff berth when teams with better records get locked out. That's probably not going to change. But those teams get to host the game too? Why? Both the Cardinals and the Chargers were 3-7 outside their division. Can we please at least give home field advantage to the team with the better record?

As a fan of a team with a first round bye, I am thrilled by the outcomes of yesterday's games (sorry Joe). Let these teams win at home in their domes, because next weekend those teams are going on the road to the blustery Meadowlands or to chilly (in January) Charlotte, where the Panthers went 8-0 this season. But taking my personal rooting interests (for this season alone) out of the equation, the system is kinda retarded.