25 Days Until Spring Training: Mark Teixeira

There are 25 days until pitchers and catchers are due to report to George M. Steinbrenner Field in Tampa so we begin our countdown to Spring Training, as we did last year, with Mark Teixeira.

While Jason Giambi was a valuable player during his career with the Yankees, the franchise made a major upgrade by replacing him with Mark Teixiera last winter. Better both defensively and at the plate, the Maryland native and Georgia Tech alum started of the Pinstriped portion of his career on the right foot.

Teixeira cleaned up the postseason awards by finishing second in the MVP vote, and being awarded both the Gold Glove and Silver Slugger among American League first baseman. Depsite the accolades, Teixeira's first season in the Bronx didn't quite measure up to the two previous ones he split between in Texas, Atlanta and Anaheim. However, being shuttled between the AL and NL midseason prevented him from getting credit for his robust production in the award voting.

In both 2007 and 2008 he batted over .300 and got on base at better than a 40% clip but in 2009 he did neither - hitting .292/.383/.565 - but did record a slugging percentage 20 points above his career average. He tied for the AL lead in home runs with 39 and led the Yanks in slugging percentage and OPS (.948) but he by no means reached his ceiling last year.

Part of this can be attributed to an an awful April which put him in a hole that took until the end of May to climb out. However, even in that terrible month, he walked 17 times in 90 plate appearances and had a respectable on-base percentage of .367.

Teixiera's defense is well-regarded by fans, broadcasters and scouts alike, but it doesn't seem to show up in UZR. He posted a below average rating last season and his defense over the the previous three comes out to be almost exactly neutral. Tom Tango acknowledges that there is likely something that UZR might be missing about Teixeira's defense. What might that be? Well for one, infield line drives aren't counted by UZR, and those go a long way in determining who the best defensive first basemen are.

Teixiera hit for a higher batting average and on-base percentage from the right side of the plate while slugging better as a lefty in 2009, which could be attributed to playing half of his games in the Bronx if it wasn't a patten that has been evident over his entire career. Of course, Yankee Stadium probably enhanced those splits, as 24 of his 39 long balls were hit at home and his numbers were better there across the board.

Partially lost in the Yankees' World Series victory was the fact that Teixeira struggled during the postseason. He made some sparkling defensive plays including one that helped David Robertson wriggle out of an 11th inning jam in Game 2 of the ALDS which he followed with a game-winning home run in the bottom half of the inning. But his overall line was .182/.282/.311, walking only 6 times in 71 plate appearances.

Similar to his funk at the beginning of the season, Teixeira could have been rusty from all the days off that the Yanks had during the postseason. He's said in the past that batting from both sides of the plate makes it harder to find his rhytym. While many players didn't seem to mind it, the inactivity might mess with Teix's timing more than it does with other players'. He's a notoriously slow starter, so there is likely some truth to that notion.

Odds are, Teixeira will have many more Aprils and Octobers in Pinstripes to try to sort these problems out.

Being A-Rod

TMZ's hook for this video is that A-Rod got out of a parking ticket in NYC - which in my experience is not possible after a cop starts writing you a ticket, those dirty liars - but it's also an interesting glimpse into what it's like to be a A-Rod in New York nowadays.

This is just a little snapshot into A-Rod's life, and I'm sure there aren't always weirdos with cameras recording his every move, but you've gotta believe he causes a fair commotion where ever he goes, especially as of late. That kind of attention has be tough for anyone to handle.

He's doesn't appear to be stingy about giving out autographs, which I've heard in the past. It looks like a waiter brought him a ball to sign (which are suddenly becoming a whole lot more valuable) and he obliged. Outside, he scribbled his John Hancock one of the school kids' $20 bills.

You can bet that this time last year, people weren't telling him that he was terrific. They certainly weren't wishing him good luck like the old woman at the end of the clip did. Nothing like a meaningful October in The City.

Sidenote: There are a few of Serafinas in Manhattan, and by the looks of it, I'd guess that's the one Madison Ave (I've been to the one on 55th and Broadway a couple of times). Nice Northern Italian fare at pretty reasonable prices. I'd recommend it.

The Fallacy Of A Hot September

In the beginning of every season, we are forced to look at extremely small sample sizes in order to evaluate performance, which grow larger as the year progresses. It takes a while, but over the summer months, trends become realities and we begin to see who the best players and teams are. But before those positions can be solidified, the schedule winds down and heads into the postseason. Then, broadcasters, analysts and fans all try to identify who the hottest teams are heading into October and the big picture is viewed in terms of increasingly small sample sizes once again.

But does being hot heading into the playoffs really forebode success once you get there? The 2007 Rockies were the most recent poster child of this theory, skyrocketing from 6.5 games back and only 5 games over .500 as late as September 16th and finally sneaking into the postseason via a play-in game against the Padres. From there they swept their way to the World Series but were ultimately dismantled by the Red Sox.

Of course, the '07 Rockies are just one end of the spectrum. On the other hand, you have the 2000 Yankees who turned into a train wreck down the stretch, going 2-12 over their final 14 games, ending the season on a 7 game losing streak and nearly blowing the division. That Yankee team of course went on to beat the Indians, Mariners and Mets and unlike the above mentioned Rockies, actually won the World Series.

Today at The Faster Times, Lisa Swan from Subway Squawkers looked at how every playoff team since the year 2000 performed in September and how it correlated to their success in the postseason. Surprise, surprise... there is essentially no connection at all. Click through for the details.

In a season bereft of any really close pennant races, but the same amount of articles to be published, scribes will be churning out columns trying to identify who is primed for October based on the way they are playing now. Someone is probably writing one about the Yankees right now. Most columnists make a living trying to find story lines. Unfortunately for them, if you want to foretell the future in baseball, you be better off breaking out the crystal ball.

Calm Before The Storm

The next two series for the Yankees, separated by yet another off day Thursday, should serve as a nice tune up for the postseason and will represent the last meaningful games before the playoffs begin. During this six game stretch, the Yanks will certainly clinch a playoff berth but can go a long way towards securing the division and home field advantage as well.

The Yanks would have to falter badly while one of the other teams gets extremely hot to lose HFA or the AL East. If the Yanks go 5-7 over their final 12, the Red Sox would have to go 11-3 just to tie them and the Angels 11-2. Keep in mind that the Yanks have 3 games against the Royals and 3 against the Rays mixed in there as well.

So even though the Yanks just went 3-5 against the Orioles, Blue Jays and Mariners, and Pettitte is hurt and Joba sucks and Mo blew a save and Ian Snell just shut down the offense... let's try not to hit the panic button.

Expect both the series in Anaheim as well as the one in the Bronx against the Red Sox to extrapolated to predict the Yankees' success or failure in the postseason. There will be much talk about "playoff atmosphere" and possibly "must-win" games. Plenty will be said about the Yanks ability to get it done in the clutch and judgments will be made about whether or not they can get it done under pressure.

In reality, the outcome of these games has hardly any predictive value in looking towards the playoffs. Did the 8 consecutive games that the Red Sox won against the Yankees to begin the season do a very good job of predicting the Yankees sweep of them in early August? Then why would they dynamic change when the playoffs roll around? Answer: It doesn't, it's just a function of the media attempting to take the temperature of the team after every game in order to foreshadow what's going to happen when the games really matter.

Right now, teams are playing with house money and expanded rosters and as we know all too well, anything can happen in October. So whatever happens over the next six games, let's try to keep things in perspective.

What A Difference A Day Doesn't Make

Since August 9th, when the Yankees completed their four game sweep of the Red Sox, they have been on top of the baseball world. They've had the best record in the majors at that point (69-42) and are tied for the best record since (24-11). Much credit goes to their offense, who plated 6.26 runs per game over that time, which would put them on pace to score over 1000 runs if carried out over an entire season. But more importantly, they've relied on solid pitching, holding their opponents to 2 or fewer runs 14 times in the 35 games and winning every one of those.

Andy Pettitte was a major contributor to that success, going 4-0 with a 3.48 ERA while the team went 6-1 in games he appeared in. He was easily the second best starting pitcher on the Yankees over that stretch behind CC Sabathia and one might say the Yankees only other reliable starter behind the big fella.

Yesterday, Matt noted that the the Yankees starting pitcher for tonight, who was supposed to be Andy Pettitte, was listed as "TBA". As he conveyed earlier today, Pettitte was scratched due to a shoulder fatigue, casting some doubt on the Yanks' playoff rotation.

Meanwhile, in Boston, Daisuke Matsuzaka, who many had left for dead this season after he was exiled to Fort Myers, made a triumphant return to the Red Sox rotation, throwing six innings of shutout ball against the Angels. It seemingly breathed life into a team that had just begun to secure it's playoff spot and left some Boston scribes positively giddy.

After the Red Sox won that game 4- 0 1, the now infamous battle between Carlson and Posada took place, which will most likely cost the Yanks their starting catcher for 5 or 6 games coming down the stretch. Posada's actions led several beat writers to chide him as if he were their son, all pointing to the fact that he could have harmed the Yankees postseason chances if someone got injured during the brawl.

As a result, it might seem as though the Yankees are swirling in chaos while the Red Sox are poised for postseason glory. Fortunately for Yankees fans, the truth, as always, lies somewhere in between. Matsuzka is not likely to have completely reinvented himself nor is Pettitte's shoulder injury necessarily going to have an ill effect going forward. Posada will serve his suspension and his place will be filled just fine by Jose Molina and Francisco Cervelli.

With the finish line now in view, every little thing that happens takes on a percieved added significance. Every loss can be portrayed as a harbinger of a mortal weakness and every triumph an indication of What It Takes To Win In October®. Go ahead and read the tea leaves, but don't forget that they are going to look different every single day until October 7th.

Yanks Slash Prices On Most Expensive Seats For Playoffs

On Monday the Yankees send out a press release announcing their ticket prices for the postseason. It garnered a good amount of positive press based on the fact that the prices are going to be lower than they were in 2007, which is fairly remarkable considering that took place across the street at the Old Stadium.

Without getting into specifics, almost all of the prices for the ALDS are equivalent to the regular season norms, and it escalates from there as it gets deeper into October.

Well it's nice that the Yankees have made their ticket prices for the playoffs more affordable, although you could probably argue that since they haven't registered a sellout since Opening Day, it might be more of a necessity than a courtesy. But when the playoffs roll around guess who gets the real break... the people with the most expensive seats. From the press release (emphasis and numbering mine):

Regular season ticket prices for full-season ticket licensees (non-Suites) will be replicated for the 2009 American League Division Series (i.e., a Main Level ticket that costs a full season ticket licensee $60 in the 2009 regular season will cost the same licensee $60 for the ALDS), (1) however, full-season ticket licensees (non-Suites) of $325 Field Level seats may purchase their seats for the ALDS at the lower price of $275 each.

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(2) Full-season Suite licensees in the Legends Suite, Delta Sky360 Suite and Jim Beam Suite, have all already paid their Suite license fees. Accordingly, they will only be required to purchase their Suite tickets, which will range from $65-$275 per Suite ticket for the ALDS, $115-$350 per Suite ticket for the ALCS, and $150-$425 per Suite ticket for the World Series.

What that boils down to is that (1) the very best non-Legends seats are going to be less expensive for the people with the seat licenses and (2) the (mainly corporate) Suite ticket holders don't have to pay their license fee at all.

Now, considering the fact that the first bunch paid $325 for their seats all year, it doesn't make a ton of sense to suddenly drop the price for by far the most desirable games of the season. I guess that's the Yankees' way of throwing them a bone after ripping them off all this time.

As for the Legends and other Suites, their license fees make up a giant portion of the ticket price. For instance, the seats I sat in back in June had a $250 seat license and just a $150 face value, meaning that they would only cost the latter amount for the ALDS. (The ~$100 food and beverage fee would still apply, but that's optional).

We've discussed the concept and execution of the Legends Seats multiple times here and an underlying theme throughout those posts was a distaste for the way that the Yankees have bent over backwards to cater to the their richest customers, while taking for granted their core fans.

This would seem to be another example of that, but the upshot is that it's highly unlikely the seats that so often sat unoccupied early in the year will be similarly vacant when October rolls around. Furthermore, if the Yanks sell out all their seats, it might trigger the release of the supposed standing room only seats which would make playoff tickets easier to come by for non-season ticket holders. In that scenario, everyone wins.

Another intersting offshoot (for me at least) is whether or not the Yanks will lower the prices for the Legends seats next year. It would be tough to do because some of the companies signed multi-year contracts at the original prices. Something to keep an eye on this offseason...

(Full disclosure: This post in the NYT Bats Blog noticed the same policy in the press release and came to some of the same conclusions, but I had this post written before that one was published. I didn't really feel the need to go back and retroactively insert it into my post.)