The Fight For The Two Spot

I'm aware that assigning numerical values to the Yankee starting pitchers is largely an exercise in futility. Aside from determining the order they begin the year in (which isn't always the case), the hierarchy is largely meaningless throughout the regular season. Every team's rotation gets jumbled up based on off days and suspensions and rainouts over the course of the season, so relatively early on you're getting match ups where one team's "#1" squares off against another's "#4" and so forth.

Once the postseason nears though, the ranking takes on a whole new importance. Questions arise about the postseason rotation and who will start what game in the ALDS. Max Kellerman used to argue that Game 2 was actually the most pivotal game of a 5 game series because it always swings the series between 1-1 and 2-0, either pulling one team back to even or putting them on the brink of elimination.

Since Kellerman's theory is a bit radical, I think we can safely assume that Joe Girardi is going to attempt to line up his rotation with his best pitcher starting Game 1 and so on. Since only three games are guaranteed, it also matters who the top three pitches are. It's clear that CC Sabathia slots in at the top of the rotation and Joba Chamberlain would be their 4th starter. So the question comes down to Burnett vs. Pettitte for the number two slot.

NoMaas makes the case for Pettitte and it's hard to argue against it. Pettitte has been on a better run recently and his numbers for the season are stronger as well. Both have made 27 starts and you might be surprised to learn that Burnett has pitched only 2 1/3 more innings than Pettitte with each averaging just under 6 1/3 each time out. Pettitte has a better ERA, WHIP, FIP, K/BB, HR/9. Burnett leads in quality starts 18 to 15 (fairly significant) and has struck out more per 9 IP while allowing fewer hits, but has walked one more per 9 (which is how his WHIP is worse).

It's worth noting that on June 20th, their ERAs were almost exactly the same (4.24 and 4.26) but Burnett proceeded to go on a run that saw his drop to 3.53 at one point while Pettitte's rose as high as 4.85. Burnett's great stretch was better than anything Pettitte has done this season and the reality is that upside is always tantalizing in sports.

Burnett has never pitched in the postseason (he was injured with the 2003 Marlins) and Pettitte has thrown 218 1/3 playoff innings to a 3.98 ERA over the course of 25 series.

Moshe at the Yankees Universe introduces another interesting factor: home/road splits. Oddly, although Burnett is the righty of the two, he has better numbers at Yankee Stadium while Pettitte has done his best work on the road, with a roughly 1.3 run difference in ERA in both directions. If the Yanks hang on to win the division, Game 2 will be at home. Jason from Heartland Pinstripes would prefer to give Burnett the start if this turns out to be the case.

It will be interesting to see how heavily Joe Girardi weights September performance into the equation. With about 5 or 6 starts remaining for each, much can change. If the ALDS started five days from now, I'd probably go with Pettitte. If Burnett has a decent September I'd probably choose him. Either way, every start in the postseason is important and the Yanks are lucky to have guys as good as those two jockeying for position.

Game 100: You Don't Know Me

There has been some recent talk that CC Sabathia has been disappointing this year, citing an increase in walks and a decline in strikeouts. His 3.67 ERA probably wasn't at the very top of the range of expectations at the beginning of the season, but he's averaged about 6 2/3 innings per start and racked up 10 wins.

When considering all possible outcomes before the season began, I would venture to guess that the Yanks would have signed up for that production without much hesitation. Historically a second half pitcher, now is the time of year that the big fella tends to find his stride. He's thrown 14 innings since the All-Star Break, allowed 3 runs and accumulated two wins. He was just getting warmed up before.

Going to the mound for the Rays will be their quondam lefty ace, Scott Kazmir. To call the 25 year old's performance so far this year "disappointing" would be a gross understatement. Although he's pitched only one truly full season in the Major Leagues, Kazmir has contributed significant value to Tampa Bay's rotation since he was called up to the Big League club in 2004 as a 20 year old. After completion of the 2008 schedule, he had pitched 722 regular season innings to a 3.61 ERA while striking out over one batter per inning. He fit the billing of the Rays' ace by general consensus entering the season; a lefty strikeout machine who, if he could ever make 35 starts or learn to control his pitch count, would be deadly.

He's certainly not going to make 35 starts this year, because he's already spend time on the DL and is only at 14. Given how poorly he's pitched, that's probably a good thing for the Rays. Kazmir's ERA is a gruesome 6.69 and his WHIP a ghastly 1.716. He's averaging fewer than 5 innings per start and has almost as many ER (55) as Ks (58). For a pitcher with a lifetime 9.5 K/9 ratio, that's bad news. His stint on the DL was officially caused by a quadriceps strain, but my skeptical side thinks he might, like Chien Ming Wang did, have had a nasty case of Badpitcheritis.

Kazmir has historically fared well against the Yanks, with a 2.65 ERA over 12 starts, but only a 5-4 record due primarily to his inability to go deep into games. He's also about a half of a run better at Tropicana Field than away from it, so it wouldn't be entirely shocking if he found his groove tonight. I would be surprised if he went more than 6 innings though, because he's only done it three times this year and the Yanks tend to work the count.

Rays fans might not recognize the 2009 version of Scott Kazmir, and who could blame them? Certainly not Brother Ray himself.

And anyone can tell,
You think you know me well -
Well, you don't know me.
(No you don't know me)