Off Day Linkaround

Make of the above picture what you will. Use your imagination. Create a caption if you'd like.

Now, from elsewhere in the intertubes:

How should Curtis Granderson reply to his first roll call when he takes the field tomorrow? Here's your chance to tell him yourself.

Greg at Pending Pinstripes took a numerical look at the Gardner and Thames platoon in left field. One of them came out slightly ahead but you're going to have to click through to find out who.

'Duk over at Big League Stew doesn't care for the Yankees' complaining about Evan Longoria's catwalk single yesterday. He says (somewhat tongue-in-cheek):

But if the Yankees really don't like the rule, then let them pay for the new Rays ballpark that St. Petersburg-area taxpayers don't seem interested in footing.

How about we let them play at lovely George M. Steinbrenner Field instead? Then they might actually sell some games out!

After he pretty much blew the game yesterday, DRays Bay defends the use of Randy Choate, citing his high groundball rates and the opportunity for a double play with Jorge Posada at the plate. Good idea, really bad execution.

Our buddy Ross discussed a few of the changes that have been made to the Stadium over the winter.

Joe Posnanski dove into the pace of play issue, and it turns out that Yanks/Sox battles are even longer than the article in Business Week said, averaging 3:39 last year. The post is packed with interesting numbers and other nuggets.

On Saturday, Ben from River Ave Blues explained how the City was able to save part of Gate 2. Also via Mr. Kabak, here are some pictures of the famous Joe DiMaggio quote on the outside of the Stadium crumbling to the ground. Ouch.

Bonus points to the person who can find the most factual errors in this post.

The Blue Jays (you know, the team we all picked to finish last in the AL East) are leading the division. If you need to be reminded why they doesn't matter, Joe Pawlikowski will set you straight at FanGraphs.

The hilarious DJ Gallo rounds up the best and worst MLB stadium giveaways of 2010. Was anyone at Citi Field on Saturday to snatch up a fabulous free Mets scarf??!?!

David Pinto notes that compared to the first week of the 2009 season, offense this year is slightly lower. The reason? Teams have hit 30 points lower with runners in scoring position.

Excellent news: FanGraphs now has John Dewan's +/- and the Hardball Times Revised Zone Ratings freely available on their site. Although they are all imperfect, the more defensive ratings we have, the closer we will be to accurately determining as player's defensive skill level.

At The Hardball Times, JT Jordan looks at the differences between UZR and +/- and there is considerable disagreement. Mark Teixeira is one of the players who scores high on Dewan's system but low on UZR. FanGraphs looks at the differentials, how else, graphically.

Also at THT, Matt Lentzner interviewed Morgan Ensberg about some of the finer points of hitting in the Big Leagues.

Torii Hunter gave Hideki Matsui a new nickname, which combines his old one dating back to Japan with the roundabout name of his new team.

Drunk Jays Fans put together a guide to attending Opening Day at the Rogers Centre. Even if you're not going to be there today, it's worth reading for A) DJF's usual vulgar levity and B) tips that you can use any day of the year.

That's about it for us today. We'll leave you with a smooth jazz adaptation of Mariano Rivera's entrance song. You won't know whether to be psyched or soothed.

Looking Back, Looking Forward

Am I the only one who thought that slogan for the Yankees on the YES Network was the best of the bunch? Why did they get rid of it? It pretty much perfectly describes what they do at the network with all Yankeeographies and such along with the live games and studio shows.

Anyway, let's take an afternoon climb across the interwebs and see what people are saying about last night, as well as tonight:

Joe Posnanski tries to understand what was going on in Johnny Damon's mind when he took of for third base last night. Also from Mr. Posnanski, it's about time someone did this.

Craig Calcaterra knows Damon's one man double steal was not unprecedented in baseball history but thinks it was pretty damn cool anyway.

River Ave. Blues reviews A.J. Burnett's (short) history of pitching on three days rest and examines the rise of Damaso Marte.

Joel Sherman compares Johnny Damon's at bat against Brad Lidge last night to Paul O'Neill's in Game 1 of the 2000 World Series. My buddy Joe texted me the same thing during the game last night, but unfortunately you can't link to that.

FanGraphs breaks down the impact (or lack thereof) of replacing Melky Cabrera with Brett Gardner in center. Unfortunately, the time to start Melky over Gardner would be a game like tonight with a dominant left handed starter on the mound. Whether or not Melky is only out for tonight remains to be seen.

Chris Jaffe at the Hardball Times takes a historical look at the teams that have faced a 3-1 hole in a best-of-seven World Series.

Big League Stew looks back at what things were like the last time the Yankees won a Fall Classic.

Also from The Stew: And you thought Jimmy Rollins was being presumptuous...

John Dewan handed out his Fielding Bible Awards today.

And finally, if you were watching FOX when the broadcast first started up last night around 8:00, you were treated to one of the most contrived promotions of all time. They showed a mash-up of highlights from the World Series alongside clips from Avatar, the new semi-animated James Cameron movie that doesn't come out until the middle of December.

I noticed this as it was happening and wondered why they thought it was a good idea to use a movie that no one had seen to promote a game. How could you miss the undeniable parallels between this epic movie and the compelling series that was taking place? Oh, probably because no one has fucking seen the movie yet. Nice job, FOX.

Are Throws To First A Waste Of Time?

You know the scene. The Yankees are on the road, it's late in the game and the opposing team puts a speedster on base. The pitcher throws over to first once, the runner retreats safely. He throws over again and it's not even close this time. The crowd starts to boo. And a third time. The boos get louder.

Even as a fan of the team throwing to first, I sometimes get annoyed with the process. It breaks up the flow of the game, it seemingly never works, and yet teams continually do it. Is it actually effective as a tactic or is it another practice in baseball that's done because it's always been done?

As of late June (can't find more recent stats), both Andy Pettitte and A.J. Burnett were near the top of the league in pick-off attempts. Burnett had a game this year against the Angels in which he threw to first base 24 times in 7 innings. They do get results though, as Pettitte is tied for the AL lead with 8 pickoffs this year while Burnett is not too far behind with 5. However, Burnett has more pickoffs where the runner was tagged out diving back to first base (4) than Pettite (3), probably because runners are more wary of Andy's move. Five of Pettitte's PO's were of the variety that CC Sabathia recorded against Jacoby Ellsbury last Sunday Night in which the runner was going on motion and got caught stealing.

We all know that pickoffs are pretty rare. Pettitte has allowed 178 runners to reach first base this year via single, walk or HBP and has nabbed less than 5% of them, or fewer than one every 3 starts. Much of the time the throws to the base are called from the bench and it's not especially close. You essentially never see a runner picked off the second time the pitches tosses over to first base.

But yet it's still done. Does it have a purpose even if they aren't catching the runners getting too greedy with their lead very often?

John Dewan says yes (h/t BBTF). When looking at data from 2002-2009, they've found that a runner's stolen base percentage actually does decrease when one throw to first base has been made. It goes down slightly with each throw after that, but not significantly. Check out his post for the numbers.

Runners steal at a 65% clip against Pettitte and Burnett which means the league is ineffective by sabermetric standards at swiping with them on the mound. Whether we like it or not, all those throws to to first base do serve a purpose (besides just slowing down the game).

It Ain't The Scoops

We all knew Mark Teixeria was going to be a gigantic improvement over Jason Giambi in a number of ways when the Yankees signed him just before Christmas. He figured to hit for a higher average, have an equal or better OBP, hit as many home runs or more, run the bases more effectively and perhaps most obviously, be able to play first base almost daily and field the position well.

In my post about Derek Jeter's defensive improvements this year, here is what I said about Teixeira's positive impact on him:

Teixeria's glove probably helps, but Jeter has never made many throwing errors. He is on pace for 5 this year and has averaged 6.5 per season since 2001.

It was a pretty blunt measurement, and it turns out I might have actually oversold Teix's influence on fielding throws to first.

John Dewan, author of The Fielding Bible II, contends that there isn't much evidence to suggest that Teixeira is better at rounding up errant throws than the Big G: (h/t BBTF)

In fact, in 2008, Giambi's 29 scoops for the Yankees were good for 0.26 scoops per game started, while Teixeira's 2009 scoops for the Yankees are only 0.23 per game.

Dewan's Plus/Minus System keeps track of positive and negative fielding plays made by each player in every game and recently added "scoops" by a first baseman which would have prevented an error by an infielder as a positive play. These stats are tallied by actual people watching the games, so there is a human element involved, but on the whole would figure to be pretty accurate.

The only thing I can think of which would skew the results is that Teixeira can cover more territory with his foot on the bag than Giambi, and this extended range allows his to field balls Giambi would have had to reach for without scooping them. But I don't think that could occur often enough to make much of an impact.

So where does Teixeira surpass Giambi?

The true difference between Gold Glover Mark Teixeira and Jason Giambi is in handling grounders. In the last two years Teixeira has saved his teams 18 runs fielding grounders, while Giambi has cost his team 18, a 36-run difference in Defensive Runs Saved.

Keep in mind those numbers are over the course of two years, but that is a massive gap in terms of fielding ability. To put it another way, Teixeira's career UZR/150 (Ultimate Zone Rating averaged over 150 games) is 2.2 while Giambi's is -7.2. Giambi might think he's a great defender, but that's obviously not what the numbers say.

Defensive performance is never going to be as easy to put a numerical value on as offensive production, but this should at least help us appreciate what Teix brings to the table on both sides of the ball.

Link Lineup

Here are a couple of links to help move you towards gametime in an orderly manner:

Tim Marchman identifies that Joba Chamberlain is actually a better pitcher when he is inducing more flyballs. He wonders if the Yankees could try to teach him to pitch that way, but I don't think that would be the wisest move for a right hander pitching in the New Yankee Stadium.

Is Yogi Berra a "Black Swan" of baseball? (h/t BBTF)

You probably already knew that Tony Bernarzard was batshit insane, but this really takes the cake...

The Binghamton Mets clubhouse nearly turned into a scene out of WWE Raw recently, when VP for player development Tony Bernazard removed his shirt and challenged the Double-A players to a fight during a postgame tirade, multiples sources told the Daily News.

Cliff from Bronx Banter told you "the Serg might work".

Brett Tomko is upset by his demotion:

"I don't think I got a fair shot," he said. "I pitched great in spring training and didn't make the team. I pitched great in the minors, got called up and didn't get much of a chance. I understand other guys are pitching great. But it could have been different. I can't see the point in coming back."

Obviously, Matt was not.

Ever wonder what the differences between John Dewan's +/- system and UZR are? Get it from (one of) the horse's mouths.

The Shyster wonders about the potential ramifications of DNA testing in the Dominican are, and once you read a couple of them, it might make rethink whether or not it's such a good idea.

It's "probably unliklely that Roy Halladay will be dealt"? Shocker. Thanks for nothing, Rosensquirrel.

"A-Rod"... "Clutch"... in the SAME HEADLINE?!??1!?

More details on the epic 1926 tilt between the Hebrews and the Klan.

"Pro Surf Championship to be held in Hal Streinbrenners hair in 2010"

The Erroneous Streak

Errors might be the most flawed statistic in baseball. Wins and batting average don't paint nearly the complete picture they are given credit for, saves are arbitrarily defined, RBIs are greatly influenced by a hitters place in the line-up and a catcher's caught stealing percentage is badly skewed by the pitcher who is throwing to him. Still, I think errors tell you the least of any popular metric about what happens on the field.

Bill James famously broke down the difference between a good and bad defensive shortstop for John Dewan's Fielding Bible and his analysis purposefully removed errors from the equation. An error only measures when a player makes a mistake on a ball that they got to. It can't take into account the difference in range, which is the most important overall defensive factor. 

Your baseball career wouldn't last very long if you did this, but a shortstop could theoretically stand in the same place for the entire game and as long as they caught every ball within their reach, they would never be docked with an E6. 

It's great that the Yankees just set the Major League record for most consecutive games without an error. It means that everyone has performed their position somewhat competently over that stretch. At least that's what you would assume, right?

Just as one example, take Brett Gardner's play during the fifth inning of Sunday's game on Asdrubal Cabrera's line drive. It was a ball that he easily could have caught, had he read the ball correctly off the bat. Instead he misjudged it, took a step forward, then retreated and reached towards the ball as it sailed past him for a double. Ironically, had he been slightly closer to making the play, and it tipped off his glove, it would have been scored an error. While not an error in official baseball scoring, it still made the game recaps and highlight reels and was cast as an obvious mistake. 

Since defensive statistics are relatively new and difficult to quantify, we can't go back and see what the best 18 game streak of defensive play in the history of the MLB was. Dewan's plus/minus system has only been around since 2004. UZR only goes back to '04 as well. I did a pretty entensive search for a study looking into the best fielding teams of all times and came up empty aside from straight sorts based on fielding percentage. The nature of batted balls and the dimensions of parks have changed throughout the years, making it even more difficult to quantify. 

If you had a Retrosheet Database, it would be easier, and more to the point to find the lowest amount of runs allowed by a pitching staff over that same time period and adjust for era. During the last 18 games, the Yankees pitchers have allowed only 3 1/3 runs per outing, a feat which I find far more remarkable.