Dissecting The DH Signings

So far this offseason, free-swinging goat roaster Vladimir Guerrero, World Series Hero and spousal sketch artist Hideki Matsui, and injury-prone on-base messiah Nick Johnson have all been signed as DHs for elite offensive teams.

According to the Dallas News Vlad's deal is for $5M with incentives making comparable to the $5.5M deal Johnson got from the Yankees and the $6M one Matsui received from the Angels. Johnson's contract includes bonuses for every 25 plate appearances over 400 and mutual option or buyout for 2011, giving it the largest possible value of the three. But for this coming year, the values are likely to be quite similar.

While Johnson is more than 5 years younger than either Matsui or Guerrero, he carries similar risk of injury, having spent far more than his fair share of time on the DL over the course of his career. Johnson may be capable of playing first base and Matsui may want to play the outfield, but all three figure to DH almost exclusively in 2010.

Offensively, each has a unique profile. By getting on base at a .400 clip, Johnson offers something much different than either of the other two aging sluggers, but when healthy each provides similar overall value to a lineup.

The biggest difference between Matsui and Guerrero is that Matsui is coming off one of the best years of his career (not to mention the World Series MVP), while Vlad just completed one of his worst, both in terms of games played and at bat for at bat production. Johnson, meanwhile, came to the plate 574 times, the second most in his career and got on base quite often, but his slugging percentage was the lowest of the three.

However, the Yankees would gladly trade points in SLG for OBP considering he's going to be hitting in front of Mark Teixeira and Alex Rodriguez. Matsui and Guerrero are going to hit more towards the middle of the order and their higher slugging percentages will be more useful in driving in runs. In terms of a fit for the line up, it seems that Johnson and the Yankees are a perfect match.

So between Matsui and Guerrero, who figures to provide more value for their team next year?

The chart below shows Vlad's numbers since he came to Anaheim back in 2004 (darker numbers are better).

While it hasn't been an even decline across the board, it's easy to see that he's fallen a long way in every category listed above in the last six years. Conversely, Matsui's 2009 line (.274/.367/.509) was very similar to his career marks (.292/.370/.482) with the exception of his batting average being slightly lower and his slugging percentage slightly higher. While Guerrero is still (supposedly) younger than Matsui and had a higher, longer career peak, it seems as though Vlad is further into his decline phase.

Plate discipline has a way insulating a batter from the effects of aging and that is one category Matsui owns Vlad in. Vlad walked in only 4.7% of his plate appearances last year, the lowest of his career, while Matsui walked in 12.3%, sightly above his career average.

Was luck a factor? Matsui had a BABIP of .275, which was .23 lower than his career mark. Guerrero was down slightly to .314 from his mean of .322. Vlad hit more fly balls in 2009 than in previous years, particularly infield fly balls. His line drive percentage was actually up last year, but he saw a dive in his HR/FB rate (-4.6%). Matsui had the same underlying factors ( increases in FB, IFFB, LD%), but his HR/FB rate nearly doubled to 17.9%. You can chalk some of the difference up to the New Yankee Stadium, but it appears he was fortunate with his results as well.

In 2010, Matsui will be moving to a less favorable hitter's park while Vlad will be moving to a more favorable one. As Jack Moore points out over at FanGraphs today, Vlad has excellent numbers at the Ballpark in Arlington, but "the data from the last few years in Anaheim far outweighs the fact that he’s killed the Rangers at home over the last six."

If I were a GM, I would be worried about Vlad's slow downward spiral over the past couple of years. While he had a higher, more sustained peak than Matsui, he seems to be more susceptible to the aging process than Godzilla. His bat speed has already started to leave him and the results have not been good. This isn't to say that Matsui is a sure bet either with his balky knees and all, but his patient approach at the plate and solid production last year seem to make him a better value in 2010.

Fack Youk Field Trip: Frozen Fenway

Friday I took a field trip up to the heart of enemy territory. The ball park which the Yankees organization held the mortgage on for several years was hosting its final two hockey games of the winter, with a Hockey East doubleheader. My alma mater, Boston College, faced their arch rivals, Boston University in the nightcap.

As our friend 'Duk from Big League Stew told hockey blog Puck Daddy over the weekend, college hockey is one of America's best kept sporting secrets. It doesn't get much attention in the NYC metro area, or even in my home state of Connecticut, but it's pretty big stuff in the rest of New England, as well as the Midwest and the Great Plains. BC hockey was one of my favorite parts of my collegiate experience (1 National Championship, 3 Frozen Fours, a Beanpot title, and 2 Hockey East tournament championships and regular season championships). So the chance to see the Eagles take on the hated Terriers in an outdoor game was pretty a cool experience.

Pre game ceremonies featured former Major Leaguers and current Boston-area men's league hockey players Richie Hebner, John Tudor, and former Yankee Bill Monbouquette. Honorary captains for BU included Miracle on Ice hero Mike Eruzione, former Ranger Tony Amonte, and Travis Roy. Honorary captains for BC were Marty McInnis, Craig Janney, and former Ranger Brian Leetch.

Despite light snow and frigid temperatures (around 10 degrees with the wind), I had consumed enough anti-freeze at Game On prior to the game to keep me warm. Our seats in the centerfield bleachers offered a decent enough vantage point of the ice, better than those in field boxes whose views were obscured by the boards.

Both teams featured special sweaters for the event. BC rolled out a special gold jersey, featuring a green stripe (to represent the Green Monster) between the standard maroon stripes and baseball diamond logo above the numbers on the back. BU replaced their standard lettering with the Red Sox font and featured a hockey skate version of the Red Sox hanging socks logo on the shoulders.

Unfortunately for me, there wasn't much to celebrate in the game. BU jumped out to a 3-0 lead just more than halfway through the game. BC got a power play goal late in the second to get on the board, and then scored a shorthanded goal with just over 12 minutes to play to cut the deficit to one. That would be it for scoring on the night though, as BC went just 1 for 8 on the power play and wound up losing 3-2. Despite the victory, BU is just sixth in Hockey East, while BC is in third - five points off the pace and six points ahead of their rivals.

Somewhere in the crowd was the fan antithesis of me. You may have won this round buddy; we'll see what happens at the Beanpot next month. In the meantime I'll try to remain content with the World Series championship.

While it's looking increasingly less likely that Yankee Stadium will host a hockey game next year, or perhaps any time in the next three years, they could learn a lesson from the way Fenway handled their Winter Classic experience. Typical of the Henry ownership group, they squeezed every penny they could out of their three weeks with a rink. In addition to the Winter Classic and the Frozen Fenway doubleheader, they hosted two public skates for Boston residents, a prep school game between Taft and Avon Old Farms, a BC-BU alumni game, and reportedly rented out the ice, at a very lucrative rate, for local teams to use. Despite a shortage of area D-I collegiate squads, I hope the Yankees can manage to do something similar if and when they get to host some hockey games.

(Sweater and fan photos courtesy of Puck Daddy)

Would Hairston Be "Perfect" For The Yankees?

As mentioned earlier this morning, the Yankees are rumored to be "in serious talks" to bring back Jerry Hairston, Jr. Rob Neyer contends that he would be the "perfect Yankee", but I'm not so sure.

The source of that rumor was a tweet by ESPN's Chris Singleton, who added that the Yankees would use the 33 year old utility man to "spell Jeter and Rodriguez and platoon in left possibly". Hairston is capable of playing every position 3-9, but the problem is that he's not particularly well-suited to any of the three tasks Singleton listed.

Although he's right handed, Hairston doesn't make much sense as a platoon partner for Brett Gardner. In his career against left handers, Hairston has put up a weak line of .264/.323/.386, which is better than Gardner but much worse than Reed Johnson (.313/.378/.463) who is also available. Hairston does figure to be an asset defensively, but just how much of one is largely up to your imagination. His 37.7 UZR/150 in LF is simply too good to be true considering it's based on only 132 games and 594 innings there.

Hairston has similar sample size issues with his defense on the left side of the infield, but not the same encouraging results. He's started only 46 games at 3B (40 of them last year) and made 10 errors in that time. Shortstop is a relatively new position to him as well, having logged only 533 career innings there with almost all of them coming in the last two years. The initial numbers say his range isn't great at either position.

Additionally, the Yankees already have four utility infielders on the 40 man roster - Ramiro Pena, Eduardo Nunez, Kevin Russo & Reegie Corona. Hairston figures to contribute more offensively than any of them, but Pena in particular is a far superior defender at both short and third.

Joe from River Ave. Blues explained how Hairston, acting as a back up infielder and outfielder, would free up a spot on the bench. Since the Yankees 12 man pitching staff affords room for only four extra position players, flexibility is at a premium. But production is the end goal, not flexibility.

While Hairston could play a number of positions, he doesn't excel at any of them - at least not in the capacity the Yankees would utilize him. The upshot is that he might save a roster spot by performing multiple functions for the Yanks, but that would only be useful if they could fill that spot with a player who can offer something that Hairston can't. Are the Yanks willing to spend a couple million dollars on a guy who is a bridge to signing another bench player? Because that's the only way it would make sense to bring him back.

Winter Weekend Roundup

Good morning Fackers. With the exception of the overtime shootout between the Packers and Cardinals last night (which was the highest scoring playoff game in NFL history) there wasn't much in the way of interesting football to watch this weekend. Three of the games featured leads of two touchdowns or more during the first half and only one ended up with a final score within 10 points. Joe picked two of the four games correctly, which was a whole lot better than Bill Simmons, who went 0-4.

Football maybe have disappointed, but the Hot Stove kept burning all weekend long, offering up some warmth during a very cold weekend along the East Coast.

First, from the Yankees:

• Much to the chagrin of staffers at the NY Daily News, countless teenage girls and (reportedly) Tim McCarver, the Post believes that they have uncovered the date of Derek Jeter and Minka Kelly's wedding - this coming November 5th, two days after Game 7 of the 2010 World Series. Mark Melancon actually got married over the weekend, no one really cares about that.
  
  
• The Yankees are rumored to be in "serious talks" with Jerry Hairston, Jr. Neyer likes it as does Joe from RAB, each citing the value of versatility.
  

• Johnny Damon is still in search of a job, with the Braves one of a "handful of teams" Damon believes he "could win" with. The Yankees tried to tell Damon that this is how the market would play out, but unfortunately for him Scott Boras was more concerned finding a place for Matt Holliday. Via River Ave. Blues, Aubrey Huff signed with San Francisco, further limiting Damon's options.

And around the league:

• Although they had been pursing Aroldis Chapman "like crazy", the first news of the Reds' involvement came Sunday in the form of a tweet from Jeff Passan of Yahoo. There were some good jokes involving Dusty Baker and/or communism to be made, but they were snatched up pretty quickly. Here's a nice, if slightly outdated, video report on the Cuban lefty.
  
  Reds beat reporter John Fay says that the deal is for $25M over 5 years with an option for the 6th year. However, Chapman will be paid over a period of 10 years and his 2010 salary will only be in the neighborhood of $1M.
  
  Our buddy Craig thinks this is a good risk for the Reds at this point, adding another high upside arm to a young rotation. The A's were reportedly the next highest bidder.

• The Rangers signed Vlad Guererro for $5M plus incentives.

• Daisuke Matsuzaka told a paper in Japan that he hurt his thigh before the World Baseball Classic last year, but didn't bother to inform the Red Sox. Fans might see this as good news since it could explain some of his difficulties last season, but I can't imagine the organization is too pleased.

• Ed Wade continues to do his best to be included in "The Contest".

• Murray Chass lectured bloggers for making grammatical mistakes and, in accordance with Muprhy's Law, made some of his own in the process.

Wild Card Weekend

Last year before Fack Youk went approximately 99% Bronx-centric, a relatively large amount of our coverage was geared towards the NFL Playoffs. This post, linked to by Deadspin and shamelessly sampled without attribution by Kissing Suzy Kolber (#22), was our first big hit.

Well, the 2010 NFL Playoffs are here. Despite the fact that second favorite team of the blog, the Giants, aren't in the Tournament of Twelve, there are certainly some Jets and Pats fans out there at the very least. Even if you don't follow any of the teams partaking in the postseason, the NFL Playoffs are undoubtedly the greatest four weekends in sports. They also mark the last significant sporting events until Pitchers and Catchers report to George M. Steinbrenner Field in Tampa, Florida on February 17, 2010.

Here is my take on the 2010 Wild Card Weekend featuring three Week 17 "rematches" (the 10th, 11th and 12th times this has happened since 1990 - previously, one team won both games four times and the teams split five times). Let's see if watching 10 games a weekend for 17 weeks via NFL Sunday Ticket actually did anything for me:

New York Jets (+3), at Cincinnati Bengals, Saturday 4:30 EST, NBC.

Some say that the Jets "backed in" by virtue of Jim Caldwell and Bill Polian being smart and realizing that Super Bowl championships and not perfect (or 18-1) seasons are what you play for. Well, sometimes it's better to be lucky than good. This first game of Wild Card Weekend is also the first Week 17 rematch - when the 9-7 Jets trounced the Bengals 37-0. Interestingly enough, the 2001 Jets beat the Raiders in Week 17 but lost to the Raiders in the Wild Card game (the Raiders subsequently lost to the Patriots in the infamous Tuck Rule game).

Back to Week 17, the Jets were playing for their proverbial playoff lives and the Bengals weren't playing for anything, sat Cedric Benson and called 11 total pass plays for Carson Palmer. The pumped-up Jets relied upon their NFL-leading rushing attack which overpowered the 7th ranked Cincy run defense.

How the Jets Can Win: Keep it on the ground and limit the throws of rookie Mark Sanchez, Palmer's fellow USC alum. Rookie QBs + Playoffs = Golf. Darrelle Revis also needs to shut down Ochocinco like he did in Week 17.

How the Bengals Can Win: On offense, the Bengals need to be able to sneak a few big plays past the NFL leading Jets pass defense. On defense, they will have to play like the defense that ranked 7th in the NFL against the run.

Injury Notes: Chad Ochocinco injured his knee in pregame warmups but it appears that he will play. Bengals DT Pat Sims suffered a broken forearm on Sunday and was placed on IR, but fellow DT Domata Peko is expected to be back from knee surgery, bolstering the Bengals Run D that gave up 257 Yards to the Jets.

Random: I expect many Jets fans to call the Bengals Jerk Line at 513-381-JERK (5375).

My Prediction: Given that the Jets ranked 8th against the run and 1st against the pass, and that the Bengals finished 7th and 6th in those respective categories, I expect this be one hell of a low-scoring affair. I say that the Jets prevail with a Thomas Jones score and a couple of FGs from Jay Feely.

Jets: 13
Bengals: 10

Philadelphia Eagles (+4) at Dallas Cowboys, Saturday 8:00 EST, NBC:

This is also a rematch of the Week 17 game in Dallas in which Tony Romo and the Cowboys completed the exorcism of their December demons and shut out the Iggles and their chance for a First Round Bye 24-0. The Eagles had to fly out to Philly after the game and fly in to Dallas again this week despite not staying in nearby Mexico on the dime of a certain quarterback on their roster with the name of Ron Mexico.

In the regular season, the Cowboys defeated the Eagles twice on their way to the NFC East title. Can they beat them a third time? You know what they say about beating a team thrice - it is nearly impossible. Or is it? Twelve of the 19 times the team who swept the regular season, won the 3rd game.

As for Dallas, the last team they had a chance to beat a team three times in the same season was in 1998. They ultimately lost to the Arizona Cardinals in the Wild Card Round after besting them twice in the regular season. And of course, in 2007-2008, they beat a Giants team twice in the regular season before losing in the NFC Divisional Round and were but a speed bump on Big Blue's way to Super Bowl glory.

Cowboys Can Win If: Tony Romo can exorcise his playoff demons and the 19th-ranked pass defense can avoid the big play from Donovan McNabb to DeSean Jackson, like they did on Sunday. They will also need to avoid costly Flozell Adams penalties and kicker Shaun Suisham will need to avoid imploding.

Philadelphia Can Win If: DeSean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin can make the simple catches that they missed last week and the secondary makes the tackles that they missed. A healthy dosage of blitzing from every angle like the Jim Johnson defense of yesteryear will also be needed to disrupt and frustrate Romo. Without the heavy blitzing, Romo will beat you, as evidenced on Sunday.

My Prediction: This game will be closer to the 20-16 Week 9 affair than Week 17's game. I liked Philly's game plan on Sunday but they just couldn't execute. There is no way that this poor execution will be replicated. They are too good of a team. Romo will have 2 TDs but also throw 3 INTs. McNabb will throw for one, Westbrook run for one, and Jackson will run back the other. The difference will be a seemingly innocuous first half field goal.

Philly: 24
Dallas: 21

Baltimore Ravens (+3.5) at New England Patriots, Sunday, 1PM EST, CBS:

The Patriots were my preseason pick to win the Super Bowl. And they were my pick to win the Super Bowl at 12:59 EST on Sunday of Week 17. But then the hahhts of Bawston were-ah broken when Wes Welkah had his knee blown out and my picks were facked. In regular American English, the genius Bill Belichick decided to play Wes Welker, in a meaningless game against the Texans and Welker, Brady's favorite receiver and the yang to Randy Moss's yin, subsequently tore his ACL and MCL on the Pats' first drive of the game. I guess I could put it in a simpler and more vulgar manner--the Patriots are fucked and the downward spiral of Boston athletics continues.

If the Pats don't lose against Baltimore, they surely will lose in the Divisional Round. Julian Edelman is no Welker. Teams will double Moss on every play. The Patriots did have the 12th ranked run offense in the league, but that was with Welker. And Baltimore's Run D, at #5 in the NFL ain't too shabby.

Patriots Can Win If: Edelman turns into Welker and Randy Moss has 3 TDs. Or Moss has 2 TDs and the Pats score multiple Defensive TDs. Big Ben Watson must also pick up some of Welker's possession catches.

Ravens Can Win If: 2nd Year QB Joe "Skinny" Flacco limits his INTs while playing at the hostile Razor and Ray Rice runs rabidly. Also, WRs Mason and Clayton will have to come up with a key catch sooner or later - surely not the most dependable WR duo in football. On defense, double team Moss most plays. When he isn't doubled, triple team him. Hit him early and hard and he will probably give up.

My Prediction: In front of the cold, hostile Bawstonians, Flacco, Rice and Ray Lewis tell the Patriots "Nevermore." Brady plays like Brady with 2 TDs, but ultimately the absence of Welker is too much for them to overcome as the Ravens D shuts down any modicum of a Patriots rush attack.

Ravens: 20
Patriots: 17

Green Bay Packers (+1.5) at Arizona Cardinals, Sunday, 4:40PM EST, FOX:

Another Week 17 rematch--last week the 5th-seeded Packers crushed the 4th seeded Cardinals 33-7 with Matt Leinart and my fellow BC alum Brian St. Pierre (who may have the best job in the world) at the helm in Glendale. Cardinals coach Ken Whisenhunt decided to go with a plain gameplan so as not to tip the hand of this week's gameplan.

Last year, as a Falcons fan, I salivated at playing the Cardinals on Wild Card weekend. Well, the Cardinals won the game. Next up, the Carolina Panthers were booking their flights for the NFC Championship. The Cardinals couldn't possibly win a fucking playoff game on the road, could they? Of course they could. Shame on everyone for thinking elsewise. And from there they continued to defy football fans across the globe by adding to Andy McNabb's NFC Championship Game losses and coming within a miraculous Roethlisberger to Santanio Holmes touchdown from becoming Super Bowl XLIII champions.

Will this year's Cardinals team also begin a Super Bowl run by beating a 5th seeded team, who many believe are better, and with a talented young QB making his first ever playoffs start (Aaron Rodgers)? While it may seem like fate dictates such, the Cardinals injury list may defeat such.

Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, the standout Cardinals CB, bruised his left knee in Week 17 and is questionable. The Cardinals leader in INTs will be needed to shut down the prolific Packers passing attack; so too will defensive end Calais Campbell who broke his thumb and is expected to play with a cast. WR Anquan Boldin, who surpassed 1,000 receiving yards for the fifth time in his career during the game, was injured in the 3rd Quarter after Cardinals coach Ken Whisenhunt inexplicably left him in, sprained his left ankle. Boldin, a true gamer, expects to be ready to go. The Cardinals need all of their receiving corps to spread thin the Packers pass defense that ranked 5th in the NFL (their rush D led the league).

Cardinals Can Win If: Boldin plays, thereby enabling Larry Fitzgerald to does his best impression of the 2009 Playoffs. The absence of Boldin will also make it that much easier for the Packers to stop the Cardinals' anemic 28th-ranked ground game. Rodgers-Cromartie will also need to play as the Cardinals will need multiple turnovers.

Packers Can Win If: Aaron Rodgers doesn't have 3+ turnovers.

My Prediction: Rodgers doesn't have 3+ turnovers and the Packers 2nd ranked overall defense shuts down the Cardinals offense.

Packers: 24
Cardinals: 10

Enjoy the games with family and friends and good luck with all of your betting! If I have any credibility left, look out for my Divisional Round previews.

Morning Linkaround

Time to pull together some odds and ends, friends:

It appears that Kevin Towers will be joining the Yankees as a consultant in 2010. Why only a consultant? Because if he had a higher title, he wouldn't be able to continue collecting his salary from the Padres. How's that for revenue sharing, San Diego?

Just like he did last winter with Robinson Cano in the Dominican Repbulic, Kevin Long is already working with players on their swings. Long has already visited Nick Swisher, is working with A-Rod this week and Curtis Granderson in the near future.

The Replacement Level Yankees Weblog compares the 2008 and 2009 Yankees defenses. Hopefully there will be another jump forward in 2010.

In light of David Cone's departure from YES, Larry from the Yankeeist gives his thoughts on the broadcasts and wonders whether we'll ever see a true sabermetrician in the booth.

After covering each team in the AL East individually, the folks at Beyond the Box Score have taken to comparing them using their slick DiamondView graphic. The Yankees lead in both on base ability and power, while the Rays have the best fielding and baserunning. The Red Sox run second in each of those categories, making them the jack of all trades but the master of none. And there's nothing wrong with that.

River Ave. Blues presents their long-awaited Jesus Montero prospect profile.

A-Rod reportedly has a new lady friend, a 25 year old Miami socialite named Elaine Spottswood. Over/Under on this one: 2 Weeks.

Alex Remmington at Big League Stew tells you everything you need to know about UZR.

First up in the BBWAA backlash category, Deadspin lists the worst Hall of Fame voters. You know how I can tell Barry Petchesky isn't really a baseball fan? There are only three on his list and none of them are Dan Shaugnessey or Jon Heyman.

Ken Rosenthal thinks that, in addition to adding web-based writers to the BBWAA, they should be subtracting voters who are out of touch with the game.

Sky Andrecheck half-jokingly suggests 5 things players can do to improve their chances of getting into the Hall of Fame as a way of pointing out the flaws in the voting. Of the 5, there is only one that a player himself could control and it runs contrary to the interests of the team (working fewer walks).

Lots of words have been spilled about the Expos lately, most notably from Jonah Keri. He recounts some personal memories from his youth at Olympic Stadium during an ode to Tim Raines while Tyler Kepner has a column in the Times today about the former stars who came from Montreal.

And finally, the physics and psychology behind catching a fly ball.

BCS Championship Game

So this should be my final college football post until the fall; but no promises on that. The BCS Championship Game is tonight, with Alabama taking on Texas from the Rose Bowl.

So which running back son of a former Super Bowl winner / convict will hoist the crystal football tonight? Alabama's Heisman Trophy winning Mark Ingram, son of former Giant receiver and current money laundering guest of the state of New York Mark Ingram Sr? Or Texas' Tre Newton, son of the former Cowboy lineman Nate, who was arrested twice in a five week span in 2001 while transporting a grand total of 388 pounds - or 53 pounds more than his playing weight - of marijuana?

Tune into to ABC at 8 to find out. I think the Crimson Tide is going to take it, and I don't think it's going to be particularly close.

Jonathan Papelbon & His "Brain"

The man of a million mixed metaphors has spoken, which means we have listened. This time, he chatted with ESPN's Gordon Edes (at times in Pig Latin) to discuss his future son, his unawareness of the Red Sox offseason moves, his contract situation and more:

Papelbon's wife, Ashley, is pregnant with the couple's second child, a brother for toddler daughter Parker. The child is due in April.

"Got a name picked out,'' Papelbon says. "Gunner Roberts. The significance? Nothing, man. Just a badass name, so we went with it.''

Gunner Roberts Papelbon. Other "badass" names that just missed the cut:

• Bear Grylls Papelbon
• Shooter Blaze Papelbon
• Rambo Rocky Papelbon
• Cannonball Titcomb Papelbon
• Jason Bourne Papelbon
• Maximus Damien Papelbon
• Thunder Zeus Papelbon
• Axl Rodstock Papelbon
• Hulk Hogan Papelbon
• Rowdy Rocco Papelbon
• Magnús VerMagnússon Papelbon
• Tyrannosaurus Rex Papelbon

If we missed any, leave them in the comments.

"I had no idea we got [John] Lackey until [trainer Mike] Reinold came down to see me, just a few days ago,'' he said. "I swear to you. I don't know anything about the ballclub, but I know the words to the 'Mickey Mouse Clubhouse' song.''

Adrian Beltre deal? He hadn't heard. Casey Kotchman about to be traded to the Mariners? Nope. Mike Cameron? "Cameron, Mike Cameron?'' he said. "We got him? I swear to you, I didn't know.''

The skeptic might recall how Papelbon insisted that his dog ate the ball with which the Red Sox clinched the 2007 World Series -- a story that smacked of urban legend -- but Papelbon pleads that his ignorance is real.

Only a true intellectual pleads for others to acknowledge his true ignorance.

It was not for a lack of trying. The Red Sox last winter offered their closer a two-year deal for about $14.75 million, within a couple hundred thousand dollars of what Papelbon was seeking, according to a source close to the negotiations. "I ixnayed their offer,'' Papelbon said.

If his defense, Pig Latin is a Romance Language to people from Mississippi.

"Heck yeah, as far as what me and my brain are thinking,'' Papelbon said, "but I haven't even sat down with my agents [Seth and Sam Levinson] yet. We don't even have a number in place. There haven't been any discussions between me and the Red Sox and my agents at all.''

Jonathan Papelbon and his brain. Quite the image, isn't it?

It's Official: Cone Leaves YES

Last night, Richard Sandomir of The Times confirmed what had been rumored for some weeks: David Cone won't be returning to YES in 2010. As Jay detailed earlier this week, this is a loss for Yankee fans. Cone had grown into a great analyst and wasn't shy about citing some of the more advanced metrics while calling a game.

Sandomir's piece paints a rosier picture than what's been rumored over the past several weeks. The quotes from both Cone and YES don't indicate any acrimony, a far cry from Bob Kaplisch's earlier report that a heated disagreement took place. Cone states "If I do return to broadcasting, YES would be my first choice.” While Cone states he's leaving to spend more time with his family, the initial report from Phil Mushnick's initial report last month speculated that Cone, who was very active in the Players Association throughout his career, could be headed for a union job.

For their part, YES said that Cone won't necessarily be replaced. Tino Martinez, who was painfully wooden in his year on Baseball Tonight, was rumored as a potential replacement. YES still has Ken Singleton, Al Leiter, John Flaherty, and Paul O'Neill under contract. O'Neill and Singleton intentionally work limited schedules and Leiter juggles his time between YES and MLBN. Lamentably, Jim Kaat, who expressed interested in returning to YES last year only to be rebuffed, cut his last remaining ties to the network last month.

As for Cone, this marks his third less-than-perfect departure from Yankeedom. Following his perfect game in 1999, Cone was never the same. He went 2-5 with a 4.82 ERA down the stretch before rebounding with a solid post-season. His contract expired and after making his desire for a two year deal well-known, he eventually settled for a one year pact. He had an absolutely abysmal 2000, eventually being removed from the starting rotation late in the season. He pitched just 1.1 innings in the post-season.

With the Yankees not interested in guaranteeing him a job in 2001, Cone departed for the Red Sox. He had a decent season for them, going to toe-to-toe with Mike Mussina during the Moose's near perfect game on 9/2/01. Cone was a shadow of his former self, but that night he allowed just nine baserunners and fanned eight in 8.1 IP, allowing just an unearned run.

Cone retired following the season, and joined YES for their inaugural season. Though retired, Cone clearly still had the desire to play. In interviews he routinely dropped hints that he would be willing to return in an attempt to help the Yankees injury riddled pitching staff. When the call from the Yankees never came, Cone crossed the Triboro Bridge and returned to the Mets for one more disastrous go-round.

While his 2003 departure was surprising, it was clear then that Cone wasn't fully ready to hang up his spikes. This time, I'm far more surprised. Though this had been rumored for some time, Cone had deeply ingrained himself into the Yankees organization over the past two years. In addition to his work with YES and his appearances at Old Timers' Day, Cone did a lot of public relations work for the club. Cone was instrumental in moving tickets, calling season ticket holders in an effort to sell high priced seats, and glad handing with the suite dwellers at the new Stadium.

Whatever the reason for his departure, we hope David Cone makes another return to the Bronx sometime in the future. In the meantime we wish him all the best in whatever comes next - so long as it doesn't involve joining the Red Sox or Mets again.

Hall Of Fame Triangular Table

If you aren't Hall of Famed out just yet, SportsCenter anchor and former Max Kellerman Show co-host Brain Kenny had Rob Neyer and Joe Sheehan (of Baseball Prospectus) on his radio show to discuss the results of the voting yesterday. They call it a roundtable, but there's only three of them.

It's just a quick 10 minute segment and although all of them are generally grounded in sabermetrics, there isn't any groupthink going on. Although I don't wade too deeply into the HoF discussions, I like the fact that everyone has a slightly different idea of who should be in.

News And Notes

Some news and notes regarding the Yankees:

• Eric Hinske has signed with the Braves. Hinske was a nice mid-season pick up for the Yankees last year and a useful bench piece. While some have expressed concern over the state of the Yankee bench at present, let's not forget that two of last year's most useful bench pieces - Hinske and Jerry Hairston Jr - were mid-season pick ups. With the talent level in the Yankees everyday line up, it's hard to attract good veteran bench players. The Yankees also have a need to keep some roster flexibility with their bench and they can't easily do that with an optionless player like Hinske. Juan Miranda may offer similar offensive value and the team has to be willing to allocate a spot to Rule 5 pick up Jamie Hoffman or risk losing him back to the Dodgers.

• The Braves have a need for pop in the outfield corners, a need for insurance behind Chipper Jones and Troy Glaus at the infield corners, and a need for a good pinch hitter as an NL club. Hinske makes a lot of sense for them and he stands to get 350 AB or so. Plus, he gets a Major League deal from them where the Yankees likely would have pushed for a minor league one.

• Meanwhile, with Jason Bay, Matt Holliday, and Mike Cameron signed, and the Braves likely at their budget, Johnny Damon is virtually painted into a corner. Lucky for him, his agent is just now "in the process of turning his attention" to Damon. I'm sure Johnny's happy about that. If you take Brian Cashman's recent comments to Pete Caldera and Chad Jennings at face value, there's virtually no chance returns to the Yankees. But I don't see a better match out there. Just last night perpetual Boras mouthpiece Jon Heyman suggested Damon could return to the Yankees on their terms. While I wouldn't rule it out, I'm not sure whether the latest report is Heyman leaking Boras speak or Heyman just throwing shit at the wall. You never can tell.

• One thing to keep in mind about the Damon situation is that a $6M salary would represent a more than 50% paycut for him. On multiple occasions this year Brian Cashman has speculated that players who take a paycut are less inclined to do so for their former employer. It worked with Andy Pettitte last year, but Pettitte's a unique case, had an incentive laden deal, and was still semi-vocal about his displeasure. Given some of the accusations hurled at Damon in The Yankee Years, I wonder if the Yankees have particular concerns about Damon's demeanor should return to the Yankees at a greatly reduced pay rate.

• Sergio Mitre and the Yankees agreed on a deal yesterday, avoiding arbitration. Jerry Crasnick reports it's an $850K base salary with incentives.

• The Yankees announced yesterday that entire coaching staff will return in 2010. No real surprise there, but outside of Joe Girardi and Kevin Long, everyone's contract expired at the conclusion of last year.

• Aroldis Chapman will reportedly sign soon, and Buster Olney tweets that the Yankees won't be involved. That's A-OK by me.

A Look At The HoF Voting Results

Good morning Fackers. Yesterday we took a cursory look at the Hall of Fame voting results, noting Andre Dawson's election and the tantalizing near misses of Bert Blyleven and Roberto Alomar. The entire ballot spanned twenty six players who met the eligibility criteria. Here are some thoughts on those who weren't as lucky as The Hawk.

Byleven (74.2%) - He's a vitrual lock for next year after coming so close this year and seeing an 11.5% jump over last year. He has two more years of eligibility left and the next two classes aren't particularly strong.

Alomar (73.7%) - I'm not a big believer in drawing distinctions between a Hall of Famer and First Ballot Hall of Famer. Even so, I think Alomar's standing relative to the other men who have played his position make him worthy of first ballot induction. Obviously it will have to wait until next year. If waiting a year is Alomar's penance for the Hirschbeck spitting incident then so be it. I realize there are players in the Hall who have done worse, but waiting a year is a small price to pay for what's one of baseball's more despicable moments.

Jack Morris (52.3%) - Morris vs. Blyleven seems to be the next frontier of the old school vs. new school debate. Morris saw an 8.3% jump over last year, the second biggest gainer outside of Blyleven. He still ranks behind where Blyleven was in his 11th year of eligibility. It'll be interesting to see where this one goes in the year's to come. Does anyone remember when Morris nearly joined the '96 Yankees?

Barry Larkin (51.6%) - Larkin deserves enshrinement, but he clearly has a ways to go in the eyes of the voters. Still, it's encouraging to see him start out at 51.6%. For comparisons sake, Alan Trammell, a similar if inferior comparison, garnered just 15.7% of the vote in his first year of eligibility.

Lee Smith (47.3%) - Smith is the highest ranking former Yankee on the ballot. His continued languishing in the sub fifty percent range makes me wonder if the BBWAA is smarter than we give them credit for being. At the time of his retirement, Smith was the all-time leader in saves. He hasn't thrown a pitch in a dozen years, yet he's been passed only by Trevor Hoffman and Mariano Rivera. Normally, that's the sort of thing the writers would eat up: "This guy's the all-time saves leader, he's got to be a Hall of Famer!". Instead, Smith remains far from enshrinement, as he should. I'm just not sure it's because the writers realize the save is a relatively meaningless statistic. More likely, I think Smith serves as an example that the writer's aren't quite sure how to evaluate "closers". The relievers in the Hall - Wilhelm, Fingers, Sutter, Gossage - were "firemen", routinely accumulating 100+ IP per season. Smith accumulated 100 relief IP just twice, in his first two full seasons as a reliever. Smith was at the leading edge of the game-wide transition from firemen to closers. Dennis Eckersley is the only closer in the Hall, and Smith lacks both Eckersley's utter dominance as a closer as well as his years as a successful starter. Smith has seven more ballots for the writers to figure it out.

Edgar Martinez (36.2%) - If the voters don't know what to make of closers, then they have absolutely no idea what to do with designated hitters. The DH has been in existence for 37 seasons now, and it has evolved significantly in that time. What started as place to play the best bench player evolved as a spot to hide defensive liabilities, or to prolong the career of aging veterans, or to protect the health of those too fragile to handle the wear and tear of daily defense. While HoFers like Eddie Murray, George Brett, Rickey Henderson, Paul Molitor, Wade Boggs, Jim Rice, Dave Winfield, Carl Yastrzemski, and Dawson all spent significant time at DH, Martinez is an interesting case in that he's the first worthy candidate to have spent nearly his entire career as a DH. Offensively he has HoF numbers, and I think he's worthy of induction. I'll be interested to see how his candidacy is evaluated over the next several years.

Tim Raines (30.4%) - Far and away the gravest injustice in my opinion. Raines is worthy of his own post, and I hope to have that before the week is out.

Mark McGwire (23.7%) - After taking a slight dip in his percentage last year, McGwire's number returns to where it was in both of his first two years of eligibility - a long, long, long way from induction. Like Smith and Martinez, McGwire is an interesting test case. McGwire is probably the best pure power hitter in baseball history not named Babe Ruth (1st all time in AB/HR, 2nd all time in IsoP), but the problem is that he wasn't all that pure after all. I'm not sure yet how PED users should be judged, but McGwire's four years on the ballot don't bode well for Rafael Palmeiro next year or for Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens in 2013.

Alan Trammell (22.4%) - This was Trammell's ninth year on the ballot and his best showing yet. He's still so far off that it's unlikely he'll ever be elected. As a shortstop, Trammell is Hall of Famer. He's comparable, if slightly inferior, to contemporaries and Hall of Famers Cal Ripken Jr, Robin Yount, and Ozzie Smith. I think the problem for Trammell is that he was overshadowed by those three for most of his career, and in the years since the likes of Alex Rodriguez, Derek Jeter, Nomar Garciaparra, Miguel Tejada, and Hanley Ramirez have completely changed the concept of what a shortstop could do. Had Trammell begun his career 20 or 30 years earlier he'd likely already be in Cooperstown. At this point the Veterans' Committee looks like his best bet.

Fred McGriff (21.5%) - One of the worst trades the Yankees ever made. McGriff was a great player for a long time. But as a first baseman, his numbers don't really separate him from his contemporaries. It doesn't appear that another 7 HR to get to 500 would have made the difference for him either.

Don Mattingly (16.1%) - This is the best showing for our beloved Donnie Baseball since his second year on the ballot back in 2002. But it's still well off from his career best of 28.2%. As much as we'd all like to see it, Mattingly's not going to the Hall nor should he - his career nose dived way too soon. But I hope he continues to get the requisite 5% to stay on the ballot until his 15 years run out.

Dave Parker (15.2%) - The induction of borderline guys Jim Rice and Andre Dawson in back-to-back years lends itself to slippery-slope style arguments. I don't think The Cobra was as good as either one of those guys, but he wasn't off by too much.

Dale Murphy (11.7%) - Much like Mattingly, Murphy went from amongst the best in baseball to done seemingly overnight. Murphy was a contemporary of Dawson, and like Dawson is considered and all-around class act and good guy. The two make for an interesting comparison. Dawson had a longer and better career, and voters seem to favor players who decline gradually, like Dawson, to players who fall off a cliff, like Murphy. But if you look at their primes, Murphy was arguably the better player. And if you look at their peaks, Murphy was clearly the better player.

Harold Baines (6.1%) - The last player that will still be on next year's ballot. With the arrival of Edgar Martinez, Baines is no longer the best DH eligible for enshrinement.

Andres Galarraga (4.1%) - I'm surprised he didn't get the 5% necessary to stay on the ballot. Certainly not a HoFer, but a pretty good player during a rather lengthy career. I wonder if Galarraga dropping off after one year gives any insight as to how the voters will view the Coors Field effect. It'll be interesting to keep in mind as Larry Walker becomes eligibile next year and Todd Helton no fewer than six years from now. At 43 years old and stuck on 398 career HRs, Galarraga signed a minor league deal with the Angels in 2004. He spent a month in AAA and was given a token September call up. In the 160th game of the season, Galarraga pinch hit in the ninth inning of a game the Angels led 9-0. He homered to get to 399, and celebrated waaaaay too much for a player of his stature, particularly considering he was just hanging on to pad his numbers and had just hit a meaningless home run in garbage time of a late season game. I remember seeing the highlight and thinking it was a little below him. The again, Galarraga lost a season to lymphoma during the most productive stretch of his career and had suffered a relapse earlier that same year that may have cost him additional service time, so maybe I'm just a jerk for begrudging him a little celebration.

Robin Ventura (1.3%) - The second lowest ranking former Yankee on the ballot (Todd Zeile didn't get a single vote). In 1999, Nolan Ryan received 98.79% of the vote, the second highest percentage of all time. He was six votes short of being the only unanimous selection in history. Perhaps he'll beat Ventura up again, steal his seven votes, and add them to his own total to give him 100.2% of the vote.

Michael "Mike" Jackson (0.0%) - Listed only to give me an excuse to link to this. It probably wasn't particularly funny then; now it's neither funny nor timely.

Congratulations Hawk

This could quite possibly be the final post ever at Fack Youk, as I'm afraid the furor over this afternoon's Hall of Fame voting results will cause the internet to explode some time later today.

Andre Dawson was the sole player elected by the BBWAA, being named on 420 of 539 ballots for 77.9% of the vote. He received just 15 votes more than the necessary 75%.

Even closer to that 75% cutoff were Bert Blyleven and Roberto Alomar. Unfortunately for them they were on the wrong side of 3/4, with Byleven falling an agonizing five votes shy (74.2%) and Alomar just eight votes short (73.7%). The good news for them is that no one has ever failed to be elected after gaining that much support.

In my opinion Blyleven and Alomar are without doubt Hall of Famers, so there will assuredly be some people angry that they're out and Dawson - a borderline candidate - is the one who got in. And that says nothing about other more deserving candidates: Tim Raines, Barry Larkin, Alan Trammell, Edgar Martinez, or even Hawk's comparable contemporaries like Dale Murphy and Dave Parker.

Personally, I don't have a huge problem with Dawson getting in. He's assuredly a borderline candidate, but he had a helluva a career: MVP, Rookie of the Year, 8 time All-Star, 8 Gold Gloves, 4 Silver Sluggers, and some impressive power numbers that have him in the company of baseball's all-time greats. He also spent his best years playing in relatively obscurity in Montreal, where the concrete-like turf punished his knees to the point that he first moved from CF to RF, and then eventually to DH.

On the flip side, Dawson's career OBP is just .323, lower than the league average over the course of his career. There's no way to sugarcoat that. Whether that's enough to outweigh the positive aspects of his career is for you to decide. The writers didn't think so - not this year at least. Your mileage may vary, and probably does.

For now though, congratulations to the Hawk on his induction. We'll have more later on the rest of the ballot, and I'm sure several others elsewhere will have plenty to say about all of this.