Rounding Up Some ALCS Previews

Since the Yankees didn't know who they were playing until the day before the ALDS started, there weren't too many comprehensive previews written for the series. For the ALCS, quite the opposite is true.

We aren't going to do anything specific in preparation for the series just yet, but for those of you who are jonesing for some info, we've taken the liberty of rounding a whole bunch of them from the many corners of the interwebs:

Here is the full schedule, complete with announcers via who else but Awful Announcing.

Looking to buy tickets? They won't be cheap.

Chad Jennings looks at four decisions the Yankees will have to make. Oh wait, make that five.

River Ave. Blues examines the managers, the starting rotations and the Yankees' roster.

Joel Sherman has some roster suggestions of his own.

Tyler Kepner runs down the Angels' various ways of winning and notes that this diversity is what helps them win so often.

Dayn Perry of Baseball Prospectus (over at FOX Sports) thinks this could be one for the ages.

Rob Neyer breaks down the Angels perceived strength on the basepaths and concludes that the bulk of it doesn't come from swiping bags. Don't worry, Joe Girardi has a plan to deal with their speed. Carson Cistulli wonders how fast Bobby Abreu really is.

Mike Vaccaro of the Post writes of Mike Scioscia's torturous ways.

Big League Stew checks in with 5 early storylines.

Dave Allen at FanGraphs projects how Jered Weaver might fare at Yankee Stadium in Game 2. Dave Cameron (also at FanGraphs) looks at the first three starting pitching match-ups and expects both teams to use a 3 man rotation, which would allow the Yanks to start three lefties at the Stadium.

Girardi is definitely considering it.

The Yankee Universe agrees that CC Sabathia should start Games 1, 4 & 7, makes some predictions, identifies the Angels' biggest weakness wonders which is the team of destiny.

Pending Pinstripes lays out the schedule and gives the Yanks about a 2 in 3 chance of winning.

Steve Goldman from The Pinstriped Bible quickly notes the differences between the Twins and Angels and assures us that the Halos will be a tougher match-up.

Steve Piloti of the Newark Star-Ledger gives us 5 reasons to worry.

Is that enough for you?

Joba's Workouts

Not the first name that comes to mind when you think of ESPN The Magazine's "Body Issue" but they have a quick video of Mr. Chamberlain doing some running around the Oakland Coliseum as part of his training regiment. There's also a picture and a quick blurb of you go here and click on number 4.

I'm with Joba on this one. When I go running, I always try to mix up the terrain and scenery to keep it interesting. When I lived on the Upper West Side I would hit up The Ramble in Central Park while everyone else ran the prescribed loops that encircled it. Likewise, why run laps in the outfield when the stands in every park are unique? It gives you the freedom to alter the route as you go, the downside is that pretty much impossible to keep track of how far you've ran. But I think we can agree that any amount of running is an improvement over this Joba.

Closer Implosions

Good morning, Fackers. We began yesterday talking about Huston Street's blown save and how it fit into a trend of closers not being able to lock it down so far this postseason. Aside from the aforementioned meltdowns by Jonathan Papelbon, Joe Nathan and Ryan Franklin, other shutdown late inning relievers like Phil Hughes and Ryan Madson stumbled as well.

These late inning offense outbursts, couple with the long layover before the League Championships Series begin have swung a huge amount off attention towards the closer role and have fans of various allegiances doing a fair bit of hand wringing.

It's not just the fans though. David Pinto, a former chief researcher for Baseball Tonight whose Twitter moniker is "@StatsGuru" thinks Joel Sherman might be somehow jinxing the Yankees with this column, entitled "Rivera Gives Yankees Edge In October". Pinto says:

After watching Nathan, Papelbon, Street and Franklin get lit up, Joel Sherman really shouldn’t write this headline.

Pinto's own headline is "Bad Time To Put Your Faith In Closers", implying that they rise and fall in relation to each other as if they are some sort of commodity. That would be like saying that the LCSes are going to be terribly umpired even if Phil Cuzzi and C.B. Bucknor are watching at home. Anyone feel comfortable making that prediction? I don't think I have to remind a "Stats Guru" that a rash of bad performances by someone's peers doesn't make them anymore likely to mess up themselves.

Tom Verducci over at SI.com attempts to unlock the mysteries of October in a single column, entitled: "Here's why it's so hard to close out a game in October". Intriguing, yes? What secrets has Tom uncovered? How long must it have taken him to research countless postseasons to find the relevant trends? Enlighten us with you timeless findings, Mr. Verducci! [emphasis mine]

Take all the closers this postseason [...and] look at what they did in their 18 ninth-inning appearances of the Division Series, and compare that to the major league average ninth inning -- not just those thrown by closers -- for the 2009 season.

Wait, what??!?! Where do we even start with this statistical atrocity?

First and most obviously, he looks at one round of the Divisional Series with a robust sample size of 18 innings (or an average of just over 2 per pitcher) and tell us why "it's so hard to close out a game in October"? That's not even a good method of comparing data for this year, let alone postseason play in general. Apparently Dane Cook was right, there really is "ONLY ONE OCTOBER!!".

Secondly, why the Major League average 9th inning? If you wanted to find out what is unique about closing out games in October, it would probably be wise to compare that to closing out games in other months of the year, don't you think?

With this shoddy methodology, Verducci's main conclusions, aside from pressure which he mentions briefly, are that hitters have better scouting reports which they can only really pay attention during the postseason and batters have a more "intense focus".

But baseball is a zero sum game. So pitchers have better scouting reports and a more intense focus, too, right?

I'll grant Verducci the point that it is harder to close out games in October, but I think he's forgoing Occam's Razor in a major way here. Maybe closers' arms are a little bit worn out when the postseason rolls around, but does it really come down to much more than pressure and facing better offensive teams?

Did you see Joe Nathan's face when he was on the mound on Friday night? He looked like he was heading through US Customs with a kilo of cocaine in his suitcase, except even a tweaked out drug mule wouldn't have been doing that thing with his lips.

It's easy to dismiss pressure as a contributing factor during the regular season. Closers are built to handle the stress of closing down games and do it all the time, but rarely is there anything more on the line. Once the playoffs roll around, a blown save doesn't just cost you a game, it could very well cost your team their season. It's human nature to feel that pressure - we all do it as fans, just watching it on TV.

If it really was scouting reports and batter's focus, would Mariano Rivera have an 0.74 ERA in the postseason, almost exactly 1/3 of his regular season mark despite facing better competition and averaging more innings per appearance? I think not.

Mariano Rivera isn't perfect, but he's a lot better at dealing with pressure than any other closer remaining in the postseason, so Joel Sherman and Burt Blyleven don't think twice about the titles to their columns even though a bunch of lesser closers lost their shit in the LDSes.

There's no guarantee that Mo gets through this postseason perfectly. In fact, he already failed to clean up for Phil Hughes in Game 2, allowing an RBI single to Denard Span. But he came back out the next inning and got three outs. And he popped up on the mound in Game 3 in Minnesota to break Joe Mauer's bat like stale loaf of bread in the 8th inning and lock down the save in the 9th.

Saying that he gives the Yankees the edge isn't going to somehow jinx him, because there are no such thing as jinxes. He's the best postseason pitcher of all-time by a mile and if someone gets the best of him it's because nobody's perfect.

Before The Music Dies

Here at Fack Youk, we take a special pride in melding music with sports. Way back before the season started, I used to label music posts as [Non-Sports] but almost immediately after April rolled around I began dropping musical YouTube clips to help express the anxiousness of waiting for meaningful baseball to be played and by the third game had come up with our signature style of previews which attempt to pair a song with a theme leading into each game. It can be a struggle sometimes, so not every combo is like peanut butter and jelly, but we do our best.

Perhaps out musical tastes don't exactly jive with yours, but one thing that you can count on (especially when Matt writes the previews) is that the song and band choices will be a little off the beaten path. Perhaps it's something old, or fairly new, or something so obscure that we couldn't even find it on YouTube, but it's almost never mainstream. By definition, that means that fewer of you are going to know the songs, but it also means that it's more likely that we are opening you up to something you've never heard before.

Matt and I are clearly both hardcore music enthusiasts and a big reason for that level of appreciation is that, at a certain point, we realized that there was more to music than MTV and the radio.

As such, we would like to extend our highest level of recommendation to the documentary below called "Before the Music Dies". It's a fascinating exploration into how the corporatization of the music business and the search for hit singles has made it almost impossible for unique new artists to come into their own through the traditional channels of record labels and radio airplay. In short, it helps to explain why radio is so redundant regardless of where you go and contemporary popular music is generally so shitty.

At the same time, it looks at the advent of the internet and file sharing and how those things have undermined the way consumers are force-fed popular music through a limited number of mediums. In the post-Napster landscape, consumers are free to explore what they like through YouTube, MySpace, BitTorrent and countless other alternatives to Clear Channel radio stations and MTV. The only problem is that the revenue streams have yet to catch up and while this is bad for the labels, it's worse for the artists.

The film features musicians and bands that we have talked about on this blog such as Les Paul, Eric Clapton, The North Mississippi All Stars, Widespread Panic, Doyle Bramhall II along with many others. If you've got an hour and a half to kill tonight or some other time when the Yanks aren't on, this is a great way to spend it. Either way, we'll be back tomorrow.

*I first saw this movie via the blog Pigeons and Planes which provides a steady stream of downloadable new music from a whole bunch of genres. Highly recommended as well.

Afternoon Videos And Links

There's probably going to be more links than usual this week simply because it's probably better to find the best of other people's work than force ourselves to write something shitty, so here's what we've got for you this afternoon:

- You've gotta click through for this one, but you can see Joe Girardi and William Rhoden of the New York Times talking about the similarities between the strategies of playing chess and managing a baseball team (hint: there aren't that many). I don't really know what to take from this, but they play a game of speed chess on the field at Yankee Stadium with Rhianna blaring in the background and Girardi mistakenly thinks you get 5 mintues for every move.

- Below, Rick Peterson breaks down the Yankees top three starters' pitch repertoires (not that interesting). But at the 3:00 mark talks some "biomechanics" and gets into the nuts and bolts of the pitching motion at a depth that you won't find anywhere this side of Baseball Intellect. (via Jason)

- Sticking some some pitching specifics, Mike from RAB takes a comprehensive look at Phil Hughes' use of his curveball throughout the season and lack thereof in the ALDS.

- Joel Sherman isn't the first person to speculate about Joba Chamberlain taking Phil Hughes' place in the 8th inning when the ALCS rolls around, but he's probably the most respected. Here's the main problem with that theory: Joba wasn't great in the ALDS either, he just got pulled before he could do any damage. Hughes is still far and away the better option.

- Yesterday, Sherman said that the Yankees, using their own defensive metrics, believed that they improved defensively at every position besides left field and catcher from 2008. Today, Beyond the Box score busted out one of their fancy new UZR visualizations for the Yankees and despite those supposed gains, it still doesn't look too pretty.

- Emma Span from Bronx Banter was on Jeopardy last night. I didn't read that post yet because I DVR'd but haven't watched the episode. So don't ruin it for me if you have, thanks.

- The Arizona Fall League is underway and Pending Pinstripes runs down the top prospects playing out West including Ian Kennedy, Mike Dunn, Austin Romine and Zach Kroenke.

Run Differentials, Luck, And Correcting Statistical Improbabilities

Yesterday, Jay detailed some of the reasons why he wasn't too keen on the possibility of facing the Red Sox in the ALCS. I had reasons of my own for not wanting that match up. Aside from the way that the local and national media would beat the story into the ground, and the usual onslaught of rarely entertaining and often unintelligent anonymous comments we'd see here, I had a more rational concern about facing Boston.

Back in June, as the Yankees entered their third series of the season against the Sox at 0-5, we wrote a series of previews about how the Yankees were due for a win. The Yankees came up empty in that set as well, falling to 0-8 against Boston in 2009. While some of the aforementioned anonymous commenters took that as an opportunity to have some fun at our expense, I still took some solace in the fact that if the Yankees and Red Sox were truly evenly matched teams - as I thought they were - then the odds were in favor of them having a nice turnaround over the remainder of the season series.

Sure enough, over the next two months the Yankees finally put to rest the issues that intermittently beset them during the early portions of the season. When they met the Sox again in early August, we knew the Yanks were still due, and it started a 8-1 head-to-head run to finish the season series at 9-9, with 101 runs scored and 99 runs allowed. In short, the two teams were about as dead even as possible, meaning were they to meet again, probability would favor neither. It would be starting from square one, only this time it would be decided over a relatively short best of seven series rather than eighteen games. There wouldn't be enough opportunity this time for short term statistical improbabilities to correct themselves over the long term.

Yet probability doesn't always win out. In stark contrast to the universe evening out in the season series between the Yankees and Red Sox, is the absurdly good fortune that smiled upon the Yankees in their ten meetings with the Twins this year.

The Yankees and Twins began their season series in mid-May with a four game wraparound series. The Yankees had already amassed two of their fifteen regular season walkoff wins, but it was during this series that the walkoff win started to become a hallmark of the 2009 season. In the series opener, Brett Gardner delivered an inside-the-park home run, and Melky delivered his second walkoff hit of the season, giving the Yanks a one run win. On Saturday, in just his eighth game of the season and his second at the new Yankee Stadium, Alex Rodriguez delivered his second big home run of the season. This time it was an extra inning walkoff, giving the Yankees a two run victory and making A-Rod the first Yankee to get pied on the season. On Sunday, Johnny Damon delivered an extra inning walkoff HR of his own, the third straight Yankee walkoff in the series, for another one run victory. On Monday, I made my debut at Fack Youk in the morning, shot down to the Stadium for the game, and watched the Yankees squeak out another one run win, this time without the drama of a walkoff. Despite a run differential of just five, the Yankees had a four game sweep for themselves.

The two teams met again in the Metrodome following Fourth of July Weekend. The first game would be the most lopsided affair in the season series. Behind CC Sabathia, the Yankees won by eight runs, representing 50% of the final run differential for the season series. The second game was another one run victory, and then Yankees swept the season series with a two run victory in the season finale.

All told, the Yankees went 7-0 against the Twins, with 41 runs scored and 25 runs allowed. Using the more accurate 1.83 exponent, those numbers predict a pythagorean record of 5-2. Instead they went 7-0. The Yankees swept seven from the Twins in 2003 as well, but outscored them 49 to 13 that year, predicting a pythagorean record of approximately 6.4-0.6. That is, in the same amount of games the Yankees had about 1.4 more wins of luck this year compared to that year.

That luck against the Twins continued into the ALDS of course. Not just with Phil Cuzzi's blown call, or with the baserunning gaffes from Carlos Gomez and Nick Punto, but in the numbers as well. The Yankees swept the series with a nine run differential. With only a three game sample size the numbers aren't at all reliable, but they still indicate that the Yankees got about a half win worth of luck in the series.

On a more specific level, the Yankees entered the bottom of the ninth Friday with just a 10.5% win expectancy. They were facing the best closer in the league that doesn't answer to "Mo". And the ever-unclutch A-Rod managed to tie it up. In the top of the eleventh, they faced a bases loaded, no one out jam, giving the Twins a run expectancy of about 2.28 runs. Instead, despite a screaming line drive off the bat of Delmon Young, they came away with none, and the Yankees walked off one more time.

Ten games. Ten wins. Five of them by a single run, two more by just two runs. An average margin of victory of just 2.5 runs; 1.9 runs removing the eight run victory in July. Four walkoff wins, three of them consecutively, the final three in extra innings. The Twins led in seven of the games, scoring first each time. Yet they didn't amass a single, solitary victory.

As I pointed out yesterday, the Twins were a relatively weak playoff team. Luck or no luck, the 2009 Yankees should take a five game series from the 2009 Twins nine times out of ten. But the Twins are still a good team, and it's highly improbable that any team, even one as good as the Yankees, should take ten straight games from them by such slim margins. That said, I'm relieved that if and when the Twins luck against the Yanks levels out, it'll be happening in the 2010 regular season rather than the 2009 post-season.

Three Dead Days (And Problems With Replay)

Good morning, Fackers. Last night Huston Street joined Ryan Franklin, Joe Nathan and Jonathan Papelbon among the club of closers who gagged games in this year's LDSes, and alongside Paps did so in a game that would have kept the series alive. Praise be to Mo.

In the process, Street allowed the Phillies to clinch their second straight berth in the NLDS, setting up a rematch of last year between the Phils and the Dodgers. This ended the first round of the playoffs in a record-tying and brutally efficient 13 games.

Not that there weren't some surprises (The Cardinals and Red Sox getting swept) and dramatic games during the Divison Series (last night's seesaw affair, Game 3 at Fenway, Games 2 & 3 of the Yanks & Twins and the Holliday game in Chavez Ravine), but now we are left with the equivalent of a second All-Star break during the span of a week and a half.

Is the answer expanding the Division Series to 7 games? Matt from Circling the Bases thinks so. I wrote a "Commissioner for a Day" post from IIATMS way back in January and this was the one change that I said I would institute. It creates some new problems with the length of the season and creates a wider variance between a 4 game sweep and a 7 game series, possibly leading to more down time for teams that sweep, but if you cut out any off days that aren't necessary for travel, it wouldn't be that much of an issue. Maybe two games would need to be played at the same time on occasion, but the additional games would create more opportunities for revenue than there were to begin with.

Anyway, as it is, there will be nearly three full blank days between the final out last night and the first pitch of the NLCS on Thursday. Even worse, the ALCS doesn't start until Friday night, giving us Yanks fans an entire work week to twiddle our thumbs and talk about things other than our favorite team participating in actual baseball games. (I suppose it could be worse. At least we're not Red Sox fans... ZING!)

One of those things that's sure to be talked about this week is instant replay. We were on top of it after Game 1 of the Red Sox series, but the topic really exploded after Phil Cuzzi's call on Friday and has been a hot button issue ever since, with more and more bad calls beginning to stack up.

Yesterday, Ken Rosenthal talked to Grandpa Selig and (surprise!) he doesn't want to look into expanding instant replay, citing the same dumb arguments ("the human element is vital to baseball") that have always been made but never made actual sense. (It's vital to baseball to get calls wrong?) He deemed the mistakes that took place during the Division Series "controversial", which amusingly implies that there were multiple ways in which they could have been interpreted.

Ol' Bud also had this to say with respect to replay:

We need to do a little work, clean up some things. But do I think we need more replay? No. Baseball is not the kind of game that can have interminable delays.

Once again, replay doesn't have to take forever. If you adpot a moronic red flag challenge system instead of having an additional replay umpire in every stadium or at least a consolidated replay review center somewhere, it wouldn't take that long. This isn't about time.

And despite what cranky Uncle Bud tells you, baseball is pretty much the only game that can and does have interminable delays. Sort of like the 3 (or in the Yanks and Angels' case 5) days between live action we are facing right now. Kind of like the never-ending commercial breaks on TBS. Within games, we allow pitchers to warm up indefinitely when replacing an injured player. We wait hours for storms pass and play to resume. We allow managers to use an unlimited amount pitchers in one inning. At one point during the Yanks game on Friday, there were four mound conferences in the span of six pitches. A baseball game can theoretically continue forever so long as the score remains tied because there is no clock.

You want to talk about legitimate issues with instituting replay? Here's one via Baseball Think Factory:

How the heck would replay work on fair/foul calls down either line? Sure the Mauer hit went into the stands and was a groundrule double, so its obvious where he would have ended up if the call were correct, but how often does that happen?

The same issue would apply to balls that were incorrectly deemed caught or trapped in the outfield. Would the umpires have to figure out where the runners would have ended up if the ball in fact hit the ground first? What if the ball was ruled a hit but was actually caught and one of the runners was far enough off the bag where he'd have been easily doubled up?

The cleanest way to settle it would be to give the batter first and have each runner advance one base. Or if it was actually a catch, call the batter out and have the runners return to their bases. But in the first scenario, there's still a good chance that the batter is getting screwed out of a double or possibly and RBI in the transaction. In the second, a baserunner could get away with a huge mistake. You can bet that managers are going to be out there arguing their cases and wasting our collective time if they are on the short end of either of those. We're still not "getting the call right" which is what the proponents of replay (like myself) are fighting in the name of anyway.

Unfortunately, it's not going to be as easy as having the guy upstairs simply and neatly dispose of erroneous calls after they happen. More unfortunately though, we are fans of a game in which our commissioner doesn't have the same level of insight into the game of the first poster on a comment thread discussing his quotes.

You get the feeling that if this was David Stern or Roger Goodell (each of whom hasn't been afraid to institute changes to their respective leagues - like Stern lengthening the Division Series in the NBA Playoffs), they'd be the ones pointing out the technical issues - whether it was them or someone on their staff who realized it. But it's Bud Selig, who is clinging to to the memories he has of watching Christy Mathewson and Mordecai "Three Finger" Brown engage in their first legendary duel at the Polo Grounds back in 1904, when he was only 35 years old. And because of the extension he gave himself, we're stuck with this asshole through 2012!

This Bud's for you! (And you and you and you...)

Closing Out The Holiday

Well, we had a little fun today, mostly at the expense of others. That's not the ideal way to go about things, but hey, we've got four days of down time to fill. We started the morning focusing on the Columbus Day Holiday, so we might as well finish the day that way too.

I can't claim this as an original idea, because I do remember seeing this somewhere on the web before, but I don't remember the exact composition of the roster. Either way, in honor of the Genoa-born Columbus, here's my all-time, all-Italian Yankee team. You'll note a couple guys have been moved to their secondary positions in order to cover the whole field:

SP: Vic Raschi
RP: Dave Righetti
C: Rick Cerone
1B: Jason Giambi
2B: Tony Lazzeri
3B: Mike Pagliarulo
SS: Phil Rizzuto
LF: Yogi Berra
CF: Joe DiMaggio
RF: Joe Pepitone
DH: Steve Balboni

Coaching Staff: Joe Torre, Billy Martin, Joe Girardi, Frank Crosetti

Of all those guys, Bye-Bye Balboni, Pags, and Rags were the only ones ever to play for the Columbus Clippers.

That's it for me paesans. I'm heading home to eat some lasagna. Enjoy your evening. Take it away Signor Prima...

The Last One To Depart The 'Dome

FOTB Simon (on Sports) spotted this gem of a picture up on the AP photo wire at Yahoo.

You probably noticed this fellow making his mad dash during the bottom of the 9th inning last night, donning a Bert Blyleven jersey and showing remarkable awareness of the situation by taking off before the possibility of a game ending double play. It was the smartest running-related decision made by someone associated with the Twins all weekend.

Amazingly, the dude made it all the way to the baggie on right field before being corralled by the army of retirees the Metrodome retains as "security".

Nice try, my Burt Blyleven-boosting, bird-blazing buddy, you almost made it.

I'm not sure what's on the other side of the hefty bag, but I think we can agree that none of the Paul Blarts chasing him down were going to apprehend him once he got over it. He may never have left the Metrodome.

K Is For Kubel

At the risk of not giving the Twins proper credit for their remarkable late season comeback, they were a relatively weak playoff team. The won baseball's poorest division, and needed an extra game to do so. Three clubs (Texas, Florida, and San Francisco) sit at home this post-season despite having better records than Minnesota. Atlanta had the same 162 game record as the Twins, while Seattle, Tampa Bay, and the Cubs - three teams never even considered contenders down the stretch - all finished within three games of the Twins' 162 game record.

None of which takes away from the fact that had a couple breaks gone the other way, this series could still be going, and could be going with Twins in the driver's seat (more on that later this week). But the point is that the Twins were a weak division champion, and in this instance the Yankees actually benefited from the pointless rule that the supposedly weak Wild Card team cannot play its own Division Champion in the DS.

That said, the Twins had a razor thin margin for error heading into the series. Their starting pitching was average at best and they were playing what amounted to replacement level offensive players at as many as five spots in their line up. What the Twins had on their side was the law of averages and a short series (again more on that later), momentum (which doesn't matter nearly as much as sports writers lead us to believe), and a heart of the order that's as good as any other in the league. In order to win the series the Twins needed to catch some breaks (so much for that Phil Cuzzi), do the "little things" well (ditto Gomez and Punto), and get production from their three big bats.

They did get production from Joe Mauer (.417/.500/.500 in 14 PA) and Michael Cuddyer (.429/.429/.429 in 14 PA), but the third man in that triumvirate, Jason Kubel, was ice cold. For the series, Kubel went 1 for 14 with no walks and nine strikeouts. After fanning twice in Game One, he took the Golden Sombrero in Game Two before getting a base hit off Damaso Marte in the 11th, then followed that with a Silver Sombrero last night. Over the course of the series he went 0 for 2 with RISP and left seven runners on base. Even when he seemingly caught a break - like when Robinson Cano missed his liner in the fifth last night - bad luck caught up with him, as the ball went straight to Nick Swisher in right, allowing him to force Cuddyer, who had rightly retreated towards first, at second base.

The nature of baseball is such that one player truly can't win or lose a series on his own. Just as Alex Rodriguez wasn't solely responsible for the 2004 ALCS or the ALDS in 2005, 2006, and 2007, Jason Kubel isn't entirely at fault for the Twins getting swept. A bad three game stretch doesn't make him a post-season choke artist either. But his failure to produce in this series is a huge contributing factor to the Twins' ouster given how reliant their club was on those three middle of the order bats.

Soxenfreude: Closing The Door On 2009

There are plenty of Yankee fans out there who wanted to face the Red Sox in the ALCS this year and heading into the playoffs, it looked like there was a pretty good chance they would get their wish. It was a season that had the earmarks of a possible rematch with a season series that was constantly lopsided in one direction or the other but ultimately even. It was the first time since 2007 that both teams had made the postseason. The Yanks figured to take care of the Twins and the Sox looked to be a decent bet to knock off the Angels. And it just seemed like it was due to happen. 2004 was a long time ago, you know?

I'm not one of those fans who wanted to see the Sox. Sure, there would have been a massive dose of satisfaction resulting from an ALCS victory over them, but there would have been the same amount of agony on the line stemming from a loss. Plenty of bragging rights inherently tied to them not making it out of the first round, also. I'll take the sure thing, thanks.

Even when the Angels took a 2-0 series lead, I didn't dismiss the Sox' chances. They are simply a different team at home offensively and they'd won too many elimination games in previous years to count them out. Scott Kazmir had the most wins among active pitchers as a visiting player at Fenway but the Boston bats hung 5 runs on him by the end of the 4th inning. The Sox sat atop a 5-1 lead but since the Giants were so thoroughly destroying the Raiders over on CBS, I kept flipping back to the to TBS to check on the game and watched the Angels systematically chip away.

Juan Rivera added an RBI off of Daniel Bard in the 6th. Then Billy Wagner came in, allowed a flukey ground rule double to Bobby Abreu off of ow-ah boy Youk, walked Vlad Guerrero and after Kendry Morales moved the runners over, left men on 2nd and 3rd with two outs for Jonathan Papelbon.

Although our second least-favorite Red Sock had a lower ERA this year than last, he walked three times more batters than in 2008 leading to more baserunners and more nail-biting saves. He had lost much of his luster among Sox fans and there were whispers that the Sox were thinking of getting rid of him. Those whispers just got considerably louder.

With his first pitch of the game, Papelbon surrendered a single to Juan Rivera, cutting the Sox lead to 5-4. However, a pickoff of pinch runner Reggie Willits temporarily quelled the rally.

The Sox were able to tack on another run in the bottom of the 8th via a Mike Lowell single, but that wouldn't prove to be enough of a cushion.

Papelbon got two quick outs and with the Sox leading by two, they were microscopically close to getting back in the series. But the Angels clawed back with a single by Eric Aybar, a walk to Chone Figgins and a double by Bobby Abreu to cut the lead to 1 run. The Sox intentionally walked Torii Hunter but Vlad Guererro made them pay with a go-ahead two RBI single. Papelbon, a former hero among Red Sox Nation was booed off the mound.

The Sox went down in order in the bottom of the 9th and despite some wishful thinking by TBS's scoreboard guy, their season was over.

As my buddy Jim said afterwards, "You could hear a tear drop on Landsdowne". There was a truly disappointing lack of crowd shots after the loss, but I did manage to get this one in the bottom of the ninth.

Youk looks pretty crushed. And who's the mysterious lady???

Don't cry, Jason Bay. At least you're not a Pirate anymore.

Peace out, Papi. Don't worry, it's not your fault.

/checks series stats

//sees line of .083/.083/.083 with no RBIs

I take that back. Have a nice winter, though!

Happy Columbus Day

Good morning Fackers, and it certainly is a good morning today. In addition to the Yankees completing the sweep last night, it's Columbus Day today. Despite my limited Italian heritage, this holiday is essentially meaningless to me now since I haven't had it as a day off since I was in college a whole eight years ago (that's a depressing thought in its own right). Just be thankful I didn't lead into this holiday weekend with a Pearl Jam preview on Friday night.

Anyway, in honor of the holiday, we're naming future Yankee back up catcher Frankie Cervelli and former Yankee back up catcher Sal "Paesano" Fasano as honorary Fack Youk mayors for the day. As their first order of business, they've taken Joba Chamberlain's locker from him and pressed him into indentured servitude for the day. He was last seen preparing calzones for the mayors. The Latin American players on the team seem to think their lockers may be the next to go, though A-Rod is said to be excited that Nina, Pinta, and Santa Maria could possibly be mannish looking strippers.

Like I said last night, we've got a lot of dead time to fill until Friday. Meanwhile, head on down to your local butcher's shop to get your Columbus Day eats...

Pettitte, Posada, A-Rod Key Sweep

It wasn't quite as overwrought with drama as Friday's Game Two, but the conclusion to Division Series between the Yankees and Twins was certainly an exciting, nail-biter of a game.

The game began as a fast moving pitchers' duel. For Andy Pettitte, it was like old times, as he was perfect through four and carried a shutout through five and two thirds. For Carl Pavano, it was bizarro world, as the maligned pitcher was perfect through two and two thirds, didn't allow a ball out of the infield until the fifth, took a shutout through six and a third, threw first pitch strikes to seemingly every batter, struck out nine, and walked none over the course of his evening.

Once the game finally saw some offense in the bottom of the sixth, the pace of the evening ground to a halt. As they did Friday night, the Twins did their damage with two outs, starting with a Denard Span single. As Pettitte worked to keep the speedy Span close to first base, he seemingly lost focus on Orlando Cabrera at the plate, falling behind 2-0. Span finally swiped second on a 2-1 pitch that narrowly missed being called a strike, and a pitch later Cabrera had drawn a free pass, bringing Joe Mauer to the plate. The probable AL MVP wasted no time in delivering, driving the first pitch to left field to score Span and give the Twins a 1-0 lead. Pettitte got out of the jam by striking out Michael Cuddyer, but he was none too pleased with surrendering the lead after getting two quick outs.

Just as in Games One and Two, and throughout the season series against Minnesota, the Yankees answered after falling behind. With one out and no one on, Alex Rodriguez was in an 0-2 hole, battled back to work a full count, and then delivered once again, destroying a Pavano offering deep to right field to tie the score. Two batters later Jorge Posada stepped to the plate and took a 1-0 offering the opposite way, just clearing the left field wall. Despite an outstanding pitching performance, two solitary pitches put Pavano and his Twins behind 2-1.

Staked to a lead, Andy Pettitte took the mound to start the seventh and fanned Jason Kubel yet again. Despite pitching masterfully and needing just 81 pitches (58 strikes) to get through six and third, Joe Girardi decided to turn the game over to his bullpen. Pettitte finished his night with a brilliant line: 6.1 IP, 3 hits, 1 ER, 1 BB, and 7 Ks.

Girardi turned to Joba Chamberlain. After allowing a double to Delmon Young, Chamberlain left the potential tying run in scoring position, getting Brendan Harris to bounce to third and striking out Jose Morales. The Yankee bats went quietly again in the eighth, and Phil Hughes took the ball in the bottom of the inning.

With Joe Mauer due fourth in the inning and the lead still just a single run, it was a safe bet that Hughes was facing just three batters no matter what. He had another somewhat rocky outing, allowing a leadoff double to number nine hitter Nick Punto. When Denard Span followed with a bouncer up the middle, the Yankees were the beneficiaries of yet another Twins baserunning blunder.

Derek Jeter fielded the high hop on the outfield turf on the second base side of the bag. After the game Jeter said he didn't think he had a chance at the speedy Span, but as he glanced back to third base, he saw that Punto had failed to pick up his third base coach. Most likely assuming that the hopper had made it through to the outfield, Punto was attempting to score the tying run. By the time he threw on the brakes and dropped into a slide to stop himself, Jeter had astutely thrown a one hopper home to Posada, who in turn fired back to third in time to get Punto. Rather than the potential tying run on third with no one out, he was on first with one out.

Hughes got Orlando Cabrera to fly to center for the second out, and as expected, Girardi called upon Mo to face Mauer. One the second pitch of the at bat, Mo got his trademarked cutter in on Mauer's hands, shattering his bat and getting an easy hopper to Mark Teixeira to end the inning.

The Yanks added a couple insurance runs in the ninth, as four different Twins relievers walked four successive Yankee batters before Jorge Posada and Robinson Cano picked up RBI singles. Mo allowed a lead off single to Michael Cuddyer in the ninth, then struck out Kubel (again), Young, and got Harris to bounce to Jeter to end the series.

The Yankees have advanced to the ALCS for the first time in five years and won their first post-season series since beating the Twins in the 2004 ALDS. The sweep allows the Yankees to enter Friday's ALCS Game One as well rested as the Angels, and to set up their pitching staff with Sabathia, Burnett, and Pettitte taking Games One through Three again.

Just as in the season series, this ALDS against the Twins was far closer than the ledger indicates. The Yankees caught a few breaks, but more importantly, they got the top notch starting pitching that they've so sorely missed in their recent postseason appearances. They also got big contributions from Jeter, Mo, Posada, and Pettitte, just as in the dynasty years, not to mention huge hits from Hideki Matsui and A-Rod, the other holdovers from the last Yankee squad to win a postseason series. It's going to be a slow, torturous wait until Friday, but it's far better than having to wait until April.


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