Game 29: Been Caught Stealing

In the very first game of the 2008 season, Jorge Posada injured his shoulder when he slipped on a slick home plate while making a throw. It kept him out of the lineup for a few days, but he eventually returned and attempted to play through it. He landed on the DL from late April through early June, returned, then eventually underwent season ending surgery in mid-July.

While Posada was still trying to grind it out, the Yankees played an early season series at Fenway. In the series finale, the same game in which Phil Hughes turned in the poor start we referenced in yesterday's preview, Posada got the start as the DH. But as the Yankees found themselves trailing in the eighth inning and with an opportunity for a rally at hand, Joe Girardi pinch ran for Jose Molina. When the bottom half of the frame came around, Posada was forced behind the plate for the first time in five days. He was under strict orders not to throw.

It's doubtful that the Red Sox knew that, but it's obvious that they knew that Posada - never blessed with great run-stopping abilities in the first place - was nursing a shoulder issue. Coco Crisp led off with a single, and despite two throws to first, promptly stole second on the first pitch. Later in the inning Dustin Pedroia singled. He too successfully took off for second on the very first pitch. The Sox ran in every opportunity they had in Posada's one inning behind the plate. It was painful to watch.

Last year the Sox continued to run on the Yankees going 16 for 21 in stolen base attempts, including a curtain call inducing swipe of home by Jacoby Ellsbury on April 26th.

The Red Sox have had their own problems controlling the running game in recent years. They've allowed the most steals in the AL this year with 42, 55% more than the second place team, and are next to last in CS%. In 2009 they allowed the most stolen bases in the league, and were dead last again in CS%. The second to last place team was closer to fourth place, percentage wise, than they were to the Red Sox.

Just like the Sox weren't shy about exploiting Posada's weakness to years ago, the Yankees have taken advantage of their opportunities to run on the Sox of late. In the season's opening series they went four for five in stolen base attempts, including a steal of home by Brett Gardner. Last year, they were successful in 19 of 21 attempts against Boston, including a merciless seven for seven against Jason Varitek in a late September game.

The tide of The Series That Shall Not Be Named turned on a stolen base, and in the years since the two clubs have taken virtually every opportunity to run on each other. Why should they, when virtually no one is caught stealing?

Taking the mound today for the Sox is a guy who has been caught stealing, but not on the base paths. Clay Buchholz was notoriously arrested in 2004 for swiping and selling 29 laptops from his town's middle school. After bouncing up and down for parts of three seasons, Buchholz finally established himself in the Sox rotation during the second half of last year. He's pitched well through his first five starts, sporting a 2.97 ERA but his high WHIP (1.42) as well as his FIP (3.11) and xFIP (4.03) suggest he's gotten a bit lucky. His strand rate and BABIP are not out of the ordinary, but his HR/FB of just 3.3% is not something that will hold up over time. Buchholz has made three previous starts against the Yanks, two in 2008 and one last year, and they've touched him up the tune of 18 hits, 2 homers, 9 walks, and 10 runs in 15.2 innings.

CC Sabathia takes the hill for the Yankees. He has no known history of thievery, but he was a pretty angry guy yesterday. First, he lashed out at his fellow "209" resident Dallas Braden, calling him a clown and saying his argument was tired. Then, as Josh Beckett buzzed batter after batter in the sixth, CC got on the top step of the dugout to make his displeasure known. Sabathia has been excellent through his first six starts, with his only poor outing of the season coming when he allowed five runs through five and a third on Opening Night in Fenway. He's been masterful since then, with a 1.93 ERA over his last 37.1 IP. If there's any blemish on the Big Fella's record so far it's that both his walk and strikeout rates are as poor as they've been since 2003. In his first season as a Yankee, Sabathia posted a 2.22 ERA, 0.81 WHIP, and 31:6 K;BB ratio in 28.1 IP against Boston.

The weather was pretty nasty in Boston earlier today. The tarp came off the field, then was placed back on, but word is the game will start on time as it appears things will be nice enough come game time. What started as miserable morning here in CT has turned into a beautiful afternoon, so perhaps Beantown will have similar luck.

Today's game is on FOX with our friends Joe Buck and Tim McCarver. Perhaps we'll get lucky and someone will steal their microphones. Lastly, in the event this game runs late, Joe West wanted me to tell you all that coverage will switch to FX at 7:30 due to FOX's NASCAR commitment. This happened during that April series two years ago and FOX made the switch without any advanced notice. I was none too pleased about that.

I've been caught stealing once when I was five
I enjoy stealing, it's just as simple as that
Well, it's just a simple fact
When I want something I don't want to pay for it

I walk right through the door
Walk right through the door
Hey all right, if I get by, it's mine.
Mine all mine!

-Lineups-

Yankees:
Where to begin? As speculated this morning, Nick Johnson has been placed on the DL and Kevin Russo has been recalled. Jorge Posada is not in the lineup for the fourth straight day, and the sixth time in the last nine games. Word is he would have played today if not for the potential for a slick field. He's supposed to return tomorrow, but we've been hearing that for a few days now.

Robinson Cano was not in the initial line up, but after taking BP and the team decided he can give it a go. The order is looking pretty weak, so getting Cano back in there is an added bonus. Given his knee he'll DH in place of Marcus Thames, and Ramiro Pena will stay at second base. In Nick Johnson's absence it's Brett Gardner, not Nick Swisher, moving up to the two spot. Part of that is because the order needs Swish's pop in the middle with Posada and Granderson out. Most of it is because of all the stolen base stuff we talked about above. With the lineup a bit weaker than usual today, I expect the Yankees to try to use their legs to make up for some of the missing offense.

Johnson's MRI revealed an inflamed tendon in his wrist. He received a cortisone shot and will be out "several weeks". Commence gnashing of teeth and start the "Bring Up Montero" campaign.

Derek Jeter SS
Brett Gardner CF
Mark Teixeira 1B
Alex Rodriguez 3B
Robinson Cano DH
Nick Swisher RF
Randy Winn LF
Francisco Cervelli C
Ramiro Pena 2B

Red Sox:
This isn't exactly the "A" lineup for the Sox either. With a lefty on the mound, the Artist Formerly Known as Big Papi hits the bench in favor of Mike Lowell. Ditto for Jeremy Hermida, who gives way to Bill Hall in left field.

Marco Scutaro SS
Dustin Pedroia 2B
Victor Martinez C
Fack Youkilis 1B
Mike Lowell DH
J.D. Drew RF
Adrian Beltre 3B
Bill Hall LF
Darnell McDonald CF

The CCure For What Ails You

(Photo: AP via ESPN)

After retiring Melvin Mora on for the third consecutive strikeout out of the ninth inning, CC Sabathia let out a raw, guttural shout. It signified a release of pent up frustration that had been building around the Yankees for the past 5 games. It had been a full week since they had notched a victory and fans and players alike had been angry and annoyed, wondering when the Yanks would catch a break. 

It didn't take long. Four batters into the top of the first inning, on the very first pitch he saw, everyone's favorite offseason punching bag and water cooler topic, Alex Rodriguez, reminded us why there was so much talk about him in the first place. He blasted a three run homer off Jeremy Guthrie into the left field seats and gave the Yanks more runs than they would need.

Although his start wasn't as dramatically framed as A-Rod's return, Sabathia's complete game shutout allowed even more reason for optimism. He needed only 112 pitches to mow down the Orioles, striking out 8 and allowing only one walk and four hits.   

It might be just an knee jerk reaction to one really good game, but the literal and figurative dark clouds of the poor weather and the losing streak seem to have lifted for the Yanks. A-Rod created a singular moment that might be considered the turning point in the season if the Yanks can go on a run. Sabathia pitched brilliantly to preserve those runs, or else it wouldn't have been nearly as significant. Or worse, imagine if A-Rod had gone 0-5 with 4Ks and CC got tagged for 6ER (again)...

I think part of the reason that the older class of fans and writers dislike the new wave of statistical analysis is that it tends to dull the edges of the ups and downs of a season. You can dismiss bad play as bad luck or chalk unusually good results up to a small sample size (coughMelkycough). Viewing player's performances though this lens eliminates a lot of the premature overreactions, like the stuff you see on the back page of the tabloids. Stats give a wider perspective and as a result, if you lean on them for your analysis, you won't ride the rollercoaster of what happens in every game to the same extent. 

That said, these last two nights have tested the rational fan in me. Coming off the loss on Thursday, I felt pretty uncertain about the team's prospects. After last night, I feel pretty damn good. One game really shouldn't make that much of a difference.

We try to read into the storylines as they manifest themselves in every plate appearance, thinking that there are hidden answers as to what is to come. It's human nature. We aren't satisfied to just watch what is happening; there is an incessant need to find some sort of context. That's what makes it captivating. It's not that often you find the patience to sit and savor the moment. 

Today is one of those Saturdays when you don't mind waiting 'til 7:00PM for the game to start. 

"And On The FIRST Pitch..."

Given that it's not 1920, I'm guessing most people weren't huddled up by their radio on a lovely Friday night, listening to the Yankees game. Well fortunately for you, I have secured a (very low quality) version of John Sterling and Suzyn Waldman's call of A-Rod's home run and put it behind a screenshot slideshow to preserve it in internet eternity (interity?):



Sterling: You know one thing, Suzyn? And I've seen this in tennis...

Ah yes, the classic tennis story. I've heard it a million times: Player's former coach reveals that their nickname was ____-Fraud, only to have everyone forget about those revelations when they are caught with a positive result on a steroid test, blah blah blah, everyone hates the guy, turns out he's got a torn hip labrum... then he kisses a mirror for a magazine shoot, someone writes a tell-all book about him and takes so many pot shots that people eventually start to feel bad for him... and here we are. 

My personal favorite part is where Suzyn says: 

"Well, I don't know who's in this park, but this entire park standing, orange t-shirts, blue t-shirts, they are giving this guy a standing ovation. (Crowd Boos)"

"This entire park?" Does she really expect us to believe this? So, even the people with the Styrofoam needles? If you are any Orioles fan, why would you applaud this? "Woohoo, our division rival just got their best player back and he smashed a three run homer off of us! I don't care if he took steroids... Good for him!!! But that Mark Teixeira asshole? BOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!" Are you trying to tell me the Selena Roberts backlash polarized everyone that badly?

Anyway, could you have drawn it up any better? A-Rod took the pressure off him and the Yankees with one swing of the bat. CC turned in a gem and all of a sudden, the outlook isn't so bleak. 

Game 29: Guess Who's Back

It's the return of the Wild Style fashionist,
Smashin hits, make it hard to adapt to this,
Put pizazz and jazz in this, and cash in this,
Mastered this, flash this and make 'em clap to this...

I control the crowd, you know I hold it down,
When it drop you know it's jiggy when you hear the sound,
From town to town, until it's world reknowned,
And I rock New York City all year around.

Easiest. Song. Choice. Ever. Were it not written over 12 years ago, you might think that (the God) Rakim penned that song and the intro to the video explicitly for A-Rod's return to the Yankees. 

It wasn't too long ago that scribes were hypothesizing that the break from A-Rod might be a welcomed one for the Bombers. Remember this article?

And yet this is no cause for the mass hysteria that greeted Y2K. The team could lose its most feared and productive hitter, and yet the sky isn’t falling on Tampa, the Bronx, or on any other corner of the Yankees’ vast universe.

Why? Because an extended A-Rod absence would swing open a door of delicious opportunity, that’s why.

The Yankees could go back to being the Yankees. They could go back to being the team that won four championships in five years with reliable pitching and a harmonious band of position players that didn’t need a slugger whose favorite teammates are Me, Myself and I.

[Blah, blah, blah... Scott Brosius... those teams just found a way to win... ]

>8

This isn’t the NBA. You can’t build a World Series winner around a Michael Jordan or a Kobe Bryant. A-Rod and Barry Bonds, the two greatest — if chemically enhanced — position players of their time, have combined to win as many World Series rings as the Cubs have won since 1908.

How did that theory work out for you, Ian O'Connor? 

The dynasty Yankees did have stars. Are you familiar with one Derek Sanderson Jeter? You don't think Roger Clemens loved him some Roger Clemens? Those Yankees got great offensive production from the three most difficult defensive positions, catcher, shortstop and centerfield. That had about a trillion times more to do with it than their lack of a star slugger.

Barry Bonds didn't win a World Series, but the one he appeared in went to 7 games and he batted .471/.700/1.294 with four home runs in it. Mickey Mantle won 7 World Series and so did Babe Ruth. Hank Aaron and Willie Mays won one a piece. Albert Puljos won one in 2006 and the Sox with Manny and Papi may or may not have chalked up a couple as well. Reggie Jackson was half the player and twice the clubhouse cancer of A-Rod and he's got 5 rings. 

Teams that don't have stud sluggers win despite that fact, not because of it.

I don't know what to expect from A-Rod when he returns to the team. There have been mixed results coming off these types of procedures, and extended Spring Training isn't going to give us a very good idea of how productive he can be. But like Big Willie Style showed this morning, there is no possible way he could be worse than the guys who filled his spot for the last 28 games. 

In a way, tonight represents a fresh start. As commenter mmb1980 noted on the post I put up late last night, as was the case just over a month ago on Day 1 of the season, CC Sabathia will oppose Jeremy Guthrie at Camden Yards. Granted, the Yanks have spotted Boston 5.5, and Toronto 6 games in the standings since that point, but with only 17% of the season in the books, those leads are quite surmountable. They Yanks just have to start heading in the right direction soon.