Yesterday In Yankeedom

Good morning Fackers. Well yesterday was a relatively busy day in Yankee-related news, and at this time of year that qualifies as a big news day. So let's get to it:

• Ben Sheets signed with the Oakland A's yesterday. The Yankees were linked to Sheets early in the off season, but that went out the window with the Javier Vazquez trade. Of greater pertinence is that Johnny Damon was rumored to be the A's back up plan in the event they were unable to land Sheets. Setting aside the obvious question as to how signing an outfielder could be a viable back up plan for failing to land a starting pitcher, it would appear that Damon has one fewer potential suitor. Except maybe the A's are still interested. Or maybe they're not. I have no idea anymore. I wish Damon would just sign somewhere and/or Spring Training would start.

• Xavier Nady signed with Cubs. Like Sheets, the Yankees were in on Nady earlier in the off season, before deeming his price to be too high. Interestingly enough, apparently the Yankees' price for Nady was higher than the Cubs price. Nady signed for $3.3M with $2M in incentives. According to Joel Sherman though, Boras' last proposal to the Yankees was for $5M. No word as to whether that was $5M guaranteed or total, but if it was the former it doesn't bode well for the increasingly icy relationship between Boras and Cashman.
  
  It'll be interesting to see how Nady fares returning from a second Tommy John surgery. By inking a deal with an NL club he has no DH safety net in the event his arm can't handle the rigors of playing the field. With Nady now off the market, there is one fewer suitor for the other right handed outfielders on the market, all of whom have some level of appeal to the Yankees.

• The Yankees made a deal of their own yesterday, trading minor league infielder Mitch Hilligoss to the Rangers for recently DFA'd outfielder Greg Golson. Hilligoss posted good numbers in his first two pro seasons, but is coming off back-to-back abysmal seasons at high A Tampa.
  
  Golson was a first round pick of the Phillies in 2004 and was traded to the Rangers for John Mayberry Jr following the 2008 season. He's 0 for 7 with 5 Ks in 7 Major League games over the last two years and has a .263/.308/.395 batting line in 2780 minor league PA, with 140 SB in 178 attempts (78.7%). But, the Yankees are lacking outfield depth at the upper levels of the minor leagues. If nothing else, he gives Scranton a center fielder for next year, which is important because they'd give up a lot of triples without one.
  
  For what it's worth, Frankie Piliere, who we noted yesterday is a former Rangers scout, tweets that Golson is "an interesting tools guy" and calls it a good deal for the Yankees. There's already speculation that Golson might be 2010's Freddy Guzman. And that may be true, but does it warrant the 40 man roster that Golson now occupies?

The acquisition of Golson leaves the Yankees with 39 players on their 40 man. Still room for you Johnny...

Five Years After The Day That Never Happened

Today is the fifth anniversary of one of the most memorable days of my life. It happened in the middle of the night, in the cold, remote expanses of the North Pacific, over 650 miles from the nearest piece of dry land - and even that was nothing more than a rocky outcropping on the Aleutian Archipelago.

I was a part of the Semester at Sea Spring 2005 voyage. We had departed from Vancouver, bound for Pusan, Korea about a week before and were met by rough seas almost immediately after passing around Vancouver Island and into the Pacific Ocean. Our ship was a converted cruise liner - a 590 footer ranking among the fastest passenger vessels in the world. But you can only go so fast when attempting to navigate 20 foot swells.

Despite the size of the ship, she pitched and rolled enough to make about two-thirds of the 700 passengers on-board sea sick in one capacity or another. I was one of the lucky ones who wasn't really bothered by all the side-to-side motion, but no one was immune to the effects of the ocean entirely. Eating meant having to hold onto your plate and glass almost constantly, lest it slide off the table. Showering necessitated two hands on the wall for the majority of the time. Even walking down the hall was precarious dance, as you were spilled from one side to the other despite your best efforts to lean against the swell.

There were some rough nights. Up in the bow of the ship, in a large room where most of the students congregated for a Global Studies class each morning, there was a grand piano bolted to the floor. One morning we awoke to find that it had smashed under its own weight when the ship met a particularly large wave head-on.

But through it all, the morale on the ship remained high. There were about 600 college students from all over the country (and from various parts of the world) on-board, all with an incredible trip ahead of us. We were scheduled to sail to Japan after Korea and from there to Shanghai, Hong Kong, Vietnam, India, Kenya, South Africa, Brazil and Venezuela before returning back to the U.S. via Fort Lauderdale. Suffices to say that it didn't all go as planned.

Winter in the North Pacific is not a friendly season. Storm systems have the freedom to build and roam without the inconvenience of bumping into a land mass and sacrificing most of their energy. On that fateful night, we were caught between three of these systems in one of the most remote places on the planet.

We had just crossed the International Date Line, placing us roughly equidistantly from Hawaii, Japan and the Aleutian Islands. It would be difficult to find a location among the major shipping lanes of the world that was further from a major landmass.

I woke at about 12:30 AM in whatever time zone we were in when my bed came unhooked from the wall and began sliding back and forth across our cabin. Pretty much everything in our room was in motion, including the heavy, squat nightstand between the two beds. This piece of furniture, designed not to tip over had done just that, smashing alternatively into the door to our room and the wall that contained our porthole. After a week of vicious seas we were conditioned to take this type of inconvenience in stride, but both my roommate Jeff and I knew that this was beyond the pale. We had experienced 25 foot swells in short stints but these had to be at least 30 feet or more and didn't appear to be subsiding.

After an hour or so of sloshing back and forth, we heard the voice of our Captain come over the loud speaker and inform us that the ship was going to be making a turn in order to face the storm system we were encountering head on. What we didn't know at the time was that it didn't much matter which way he turned the ship.

A more couple hours - and countless shifts port and starboard - later there was another, very similar message. We were on the third deck, but every time the ship banked towards our side, our porthole would plunge beneath the waterline, creating an eerie swallowing sound. If anything, conditions were getting worse.

Finally, at about 4 in the morning, we heard the Dean of Students, Kenn Gaither come over the loudspeaker. In what can only be described as a desperately panicked voice, he said "EVERYONE. PLEASE REMAIN. CALM."

"PLEASE PUT ON YOUR LIFE VESTS, PROCEED TO THE HALLWAY AND AWAIT FURTHER INSTRUCTIONS."

At this point, it still seemed like a trivial aggravation. What we couldn't have known was that he had been up in the bridge of the ship - where the Captain navigates from - when a rogue wave at least 50 feet high smashed two of the windows, shorting out all of their controls and disabling two of the vessel's three engines.

Blissfully unaware of what was going on and bleary-eyed from a lack of sleep, we piled into the corridors of the ship, orange life vests securely fastened. I hadn't processed the idea that we were in grave danger just yet. I think we all possess a natural human instinct that tells us everything is going to turn out fine when we are thrust into an emergency. But I looked down the hallway and saw girls crying and guys with bleak expressions on their faces.

We stayed in the hallway waiting for the Dean to tell us we could go back into our cabins, restlessly shifting and slipping from wall to wall, listening to the sounds of various items crashing about our berths. Only, that's not what happened next.

Around six in the morning, we were told to proceed to the fifth deck - the one that contained the life boat stations. As Gaither gave the instructions, he assigned separate locations for the males and females. Kind of like they did on the Titanic.

The gravity of the situation didn't really hit me until I reached the fifth deck and saw a Filipino crew member crying hysterically. This guy, even if he hadn't been on this particular ship for long, had experience on the open seas and was surrounded by others who had even more. If he thought this was bad, then apparently, it was.

The entirety of a seven-level ship's passengers aren't meant to fit into one of those levels. As such, we were packed in throughout, all sitting on the floor since anything that could pass for a seat would quickly tip over should you be foolish enough to try to sit on it. I ended up on a swath of tile adjacent to one of the boat's cafeterias. There were probably 50-75 other people in the same general area, all helplessly sliding from one wall to another each time the ship pitched. There was a steel door to a kitchen right behind me and with every roll from side-to-side, what sounded like the majority of the cookware inside came skidding across the tile floor and slammed into that door in a deafening cacophony of crashes and clangs.

What I can't sufficiently convey in this post was the relentless, terrifying and inescapable pitch of the ship. The picture on top of this post was taken on that day and isn't doctored. We all have experienced the G-force sensation of getting pushed to one side far enough where you feel like you are going to fall over, but this happened every 15 or 20 seconds for 10 or 12 hours straight. After a while I lost the nagging fear that this next wave was the one that was going to turn the M.V. Explorer upside down in 45 degree waters well beyond the reach of even the most perfectly executed rescue plan. But I never fully dismissed it as a possibility.

Out there, 12 hours away from the nearest cargo vessel, 10,000 feet from the bottom of the ocean and 650 miles from land, most of the people on that boat found a way to ignore that fact that we were staring down an inevitable demise should we capsize. For whatever reason, I thought that if the worst case scenario of the ship sinking unfolded, I'd survive somehow. I'd just swim out, break a window if I had to, kick to the surface, cling to some debris and wait to be rescued. Of course, there was no way anyone could have made it out of the ship and even if they did, they would have been stranded in frigid water in massive swells hours away from anyone who could have possibly been of assistance.

I know this sounds pretty far-fetched. But it actually happened. Look:

You don't have to watch that whole episode of Storm Stories to know how this tale ends. Instead of one of the most catastrophic losses of life in modern maritime history, we made it out relatively unscathed. An elderly woman broke her hip and a crew member fractured his arm, but no one was seriously hurt. The ship was forced to limp back to Hawaii, but for a while it looked like we might have to stop at Midway Island to refuel first.

It was "the day that never happened" partially because it still seems surreal but mostly due to the fact that we reversed course and again crossed the International Date Line, isolating that chaotic 12 hour stretch into a sort of bubble of time unto its own.

We missed out on visiting Korea and Japan but in exchange, we stayed in Hawaii for 10 days and Semester at Sea arranged for us to fly chartered jets from Honolulu to Shanghai to Hong Kong to Ho Chi Minh City before rendezvousing with the M.V. Explorer on the Me Kong River and resuming the rest of the trip as planned.

Before they leave this earth, most people will encounter a true life or death situation in which they come to terms with the fact that this might actually be it. But most of those predicaments end as quickly as then begin instead of being protracted out over half of a day. It was as if we were all involved in an extended hostage situation with Poseidon as our captor and no one with a means of advocating for our release.

It wasn't until we were docked in Hawaii (or maybe it was on a subway in Hong Kong) that I allowed myself to process how close we all came to dying that day. Although I understand it now, I still think back to my friend Dave sarcastically reading out of a Tony Robbins book to make people laugh when we were sliding across the floor. I still vividly remember the crew emerging from the kitchen amidst the sliding plates and utensils with metal bins of french toast to feed the passengers when the swells were at their largest (how they prepared a meal under those conditions I will never know). And the fact that we reconvened our shipboard poker game as soon as the worst had passed, but had to keep our chips in paper cups since they wouldn't have stayed on the table.

I don't think about the events of that day nearly as much as I used to, but every time the anniversary rolls around and I talk to other people that were on the ship, the memories are as real and as vivid as anything else I have experienced in my time on Earth. Unfortunately, the most traumatic events of our lives leave the most indelible marks.

Truthfully, it was during those 100 days of Semester at Sea that I realized that I was halfway decent at writing. I sent periodic letters to my close friends and family but soon started getting email replies from people other than the original recipients telling me how much they've been enjoying my dispatches from halfway around the world. I quickly realized that, if the topic was right, I might be able to write something people enjoyed reading.

That one specific harrowing experience and the balance of the 100 days of that trip altered my life in ways that are still taking shape. I know that I've cheated death and enjoy a disbelieving sort of laugh every time I think about it. I feel like I have a deeper understanding of the world than most people who haven't visited 9 countries in 100 days.

Our Global Studies professor, Robert Fessler gave a speech at the end of the trip that won't go down as one of the great ones of all time. However it's one of the best I've ever heard because it struck the perfect notes while explaining why traveling is enriching on a personal level. He talked about how shared experiences bond people and how being removed from your element forces you to think differently. And thinking differently is what makes life interesting. He made the same "fishbowl" analogy that David Foster Wallace did when he made the his only graduation address at Kenyon College later that year.

From a transcript of Fessler's speech:

"Shangai isn't just a word anymore, it's a place. Cape Town. It all comes back. How could you have possibly imagined back in December that you would spend the rest of your life getting chills whenever you thought of the words "put on your life jackets and get into the hall right now!", with the steady haunting moan of a fog horn in the background. Who else will ever understand that? To you, the world is never going to be the same again."

22 Days Until Spring Training: Allie Reynolds

Like the player we chose for #23 of this countdown, Allie Reynolds occupies a place in Yankee lore just outside the inner circle of legendary greats. His career wasn't long enough to get him elected to him in the Hall of Fame although he only missed being appointed by the Veterans Committee by one vote in 2009. Coincidentally, the only player who did make it in on that ballot that year was Joe Gordon, the player who Reynolds was brought to the Yankees in exchange for in 1947.

Reynolds was one of the rare ballplayers who went to college back in his time and it was mostly because he had never played much baseball before that and had no aspirations to do so professionally. A quarter-part Creek Indian from Bethany, Oklahoma, Reynolds was recruited by Oklahoma A&M (today Oklahoma State) for football and track but according to legend, he was asked to throw batting practice to the team and struck out the first four hitters he faced and never looked back.

Somewhat fittingly, the Superchief came up through the Indians organization. After three odd years in the minors, Reynolds made his major league debut in September of 1942. He spend four years pitching for the Indians - both starting and relieving - before being dealt to the Yankees. He was widely considered one of the hardest throwers in the league, close behind his teammate Bob Feller but Allie lacked the control to go along with his velocity. He averaged five walks and five strikeouts per nine innings in Cleveland but the Yankees decided to take a shot on the flamethrower and his 3.31 ERA.

Reynolds' first season in New York was 1947 and he had the best year of any Yankee pitcher, going 19-8 with a 3.20 ERA in 241 innings (including to two saves in four relief appearances). He was primarily a starting pitcher but over his 12 full seasons in the Majors, he appeared in relief 123 times. Casey Stengel was purported to have the habit of holding Reynolds back to pitch against tougher opponents, making him a tremendously valuable asset to the team.

That year, the Yankees won the World Series that year against the Dodgers with Reynolds contributing a complete game victory in Game 2.

The Yanks finished third in the American league in 1948 but the next year, Reynolds, Vic Raschi and Eddie Lopat won 53 games between them and the Yankees again won the World Series against the Dodgers, their first of five consecutive Championships. Reynolds didn't allow a run in 12.1 innings in the Fall Classic collecting another complete game World Series victory in a 1-0 contest in Game 1 against Brooklyn. He also protected a two run lead for 3.1 innings in Game 4, earning him a save to go along with his victory.

In 1951, he pitched two no-hitters, one against the Red Sox to clinch the American League pennant. Retrosheet doesn't go back this far, but again according to legend, Reynolds needed to retire Ted Williams for the final out of that game and got him to pop out behind the plate - but Yogi Berra dropped the ball. Reynolds then got Williams to pop to the same spot, thereby completing the no-hitter.

By far the best regular season of his career came in 1952 when he compiled a 2.06 ERA in 244 innings and won 20 games. The 1952 World Series was the crowning jewel to his fine season. Reynolds appeared in four of the seven games in the series, starting Game 1 and 4, the latter a complete game shutout on two days rest. He got a four out save in Game 6 and the win by virtue of three one run relief innings in Game 7.

In the final two years of his career the Supercheif had more and more of his innings transitioned into the bullpen. He served as the Yanks' primary closer in '53, picking up 13 saves. He reliquished that role to Johnny Sain in 1954 and retired after the Yanks won 103 games but finished 3rd in the American League that year.

It took until 1989 for it to happen but Reynolds has a plaque dedicated to him in Monument Park, although his number isn't retired by the Yankees.

Unlike Mattingly, he was probably under appreciated in his time. He wasn't a product of the farm system and the fact that he went to college deprived him of a longer career, but I'm sure most players would swap spots with ol' Allie given that he won 6 Championships and played alongside Whitey Ford, Vic Raschi, Yogi Berra, Joe DiMaggio, Phil Rizzuto, Moose Skowron, Tommy Henrich, Charlie Keller, Enos Slaughter, Bob Feller and Lou Boudreau.

Jeter, Rose, Rodriguez & Record Projections

The question of whether or not Derek Jeter will pass Pete Rose's all-time hit mark is not a new one. From what I can find on these here internets, Rob Neyer addressed the possibility in a mailbag back in 2006 as Jeter was approaching 2,000 hits and was, like he is now, slightly outpacing Rose based on seasonal age and number of hits accumulated. It came up again in 2008 as he neared 2,500 hits and probably a few times in between.

Since then, essentially nothing has changed except the people who bring up the question - usually not bloggers but relative outsiders who haven't heard it discussed ad nasuem already. Back in that 2006 Neyer mailbag it was a reader named Yehuda Hyman and yesterday it was the pinch hitter at LoHud named Lucas Vanderwarker. Lucas's post got picked up over at Baseball Think Factory and Neyer got in on the action again, adding some new relevant assumptions to the equation:

Now, let's think about how Derek Jeter's career is likely to play out. One, everyone seems to think that Jeter will retire as a Yankee; that they'll do anything keep him around and that he won't be interested in playing elsewhere. Two, he's a shortstop. There's essentially no such thing as a 42-year-old shortstop. Three, the Yankees have Mark Teixeira under contract through 2016, when Jeter will be 42. They've also got Alex Rodriguez under contract through 2017, when Jeter will be 43.

David Pinto also chimed in, offering up Robin Yount as a comparable who, as a 35 year old was over 100 hits ahead of Rose but played only two more seasons and finished with 3,142 in total.

As Rose said Joe Posnanski, "You tell Derek the first 3,000 are easy". Of course, the implication is not that they're actually easy, but they're a lot easier than the next 1,256, which, as every other person ever to have played the game has figured out, is a true statement.

Jeter is 35 and a half years old and although we've seen very few indications to the contrary, the Cap'n is not invincible. No one is.

I learned this the hard way last year when I took issue with Nate Silver's projected home run totals for Alex Rodriguez, which predicted he'd end up with 730. I eventually ventured a guess as to what his career home run tally would be. I used an exhaustive 8 step methodology and arrived at the number 792. That involved a prediction of 42 for the 2009 season.

Much to my chagrin, not even two weeks later A-Rod was out in Colorado having surgery to repair a torn hip labrum, missed over a month of the season and had to hit two home runs in the same inning in Game 162 just to reach 30. Not only that, but his hip injury also cast serious doubt on his long term health.

While it's still a distinct possibility that A-Rod breaks Barry Bonds' Hank Aaron's record, it doesn't seem nearly as likely as it did just a year ago. But the picture is a lot rosier than it was the day after he had surgery. And that likelihood will probably fluctuate countless more times before he either breaks the record or retires.

I understand why fans like to talk about these far-flung possibilities and we are outrageously lucky to have two players on the Yankees pursing perhaps the two most hallowed career offensive records in Baseball. But at the same time, I'm not interested in reassessing what a projection system - using a bunch of players as comparables who, by definition didn't break the record - predicts the odds are that A-Rod or Jeter will reach that milestone every time one of them passes a round number, gets injured or the offseason news cycle grinds to a halt.

Projections can be a very useful tool in the right context but these kinds of records get broken on a very infrequent basis and only then by extreme statistical outliers. And besides, the left side of the infield still has a long, long road ahead.

Is There Anything To The Cruz Rumor?

Good morning Fackers. The Great Left Field Debate rages on. The weekend brought another round of Johnny Damon rumors, they made an offer, no they didn't, they set a deadline, no they didn't, Cashman's pissed, Damon will have a team within the week, the A's are interested, and on and on and on.

Yesterday brought the news, courtesy of AOL Fanhouse's Frankie Piliere, that the Yankees "inquired on" Nelson Cruz of the Texas Rangers. Normally I'd consider this to be nothing, and it probably is. Just about anything passes for news this time of year. Teams inquire about players all the time; as we learned with the Nick Swisher rumors early this off-season, there's a big difference between actively shopping someone and listening to offers without hanging up the phone. It doesn't mean there's anything to it.

Perhaps the Cruz inquiry is Brian Cashman's response to Scott Boras' incessant claims of a "mystery team" being interested in Damon. And even if the Yankees did check on him, the chances of him being moved are slim. The Rangers are in the process of being sold. Nelson Cruz is a relatively young, relatively productive, highly cost controlled asset. Businesses in the process of being sold do not divest themselves of such assets.

That said, I have every confidence that Piliere's tweet is true. Before joining Fanhouse last year, Piliere was a scout in the employ of the Rangers. He likely has contacts and friends that remain in the Rangers organization, and I'm sure that's where he received his information on this one.

In the end this is likely much ado about nothing. I highly doubt the Yankees will acquire Cruz and don't think they should. But given the source, I'm sure they did inquire about him. The question remains, are they just doing due diligence, are they legitimately interested in him, are they actively shopping for a left fielder, or is this a Damon-related smokescreen? Time will tell.

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Speaking of Piliere, his list of the Top 100 Prospects went up yesterday. Jesus Montero checked in at number five, Manny Banuelos at 41, Austin Romine at 45, and Zach McAllister at 76. Recent Yankee farm hands Austin Jackson and Jose Tabata checked in at numbers 25 and 69. Head over and give it a read.

23 Days Until Spring Training: Don Mattingly

As Yankee fans, we're fortunate that the biggest names in franchise history - Ruth, Gehrig, DiMaggio, Berra, Mantle - rank amongst the inner circle greatest players in the history of the game. But there is another breed of Yankee hero, the players that didn't quite have the long term dominance of their immortalized counterparts, but who nonetheless had impressive peaks and lengthy careers, and as a result, will forever hold a special place in the hearts of Yankee fans.

Bobby Murcer came to the Bronx heralded as the next Mickey Mantle. He arrived the year after the Mantle/Ford/Berra dynasty won its final pennant and was traded away two seasons before the Yankees returned to the Fall Classic. In between, he had a five year stretch where he was consistently amongst the best players in the game, and returned to the Yankees the year after they repeated as champions. His teammate Thurman Munson emerged as one the premier catchers in the game in the early seventies, won the AL MVP in 1976, and captained the Yankees to three consecutive pennants and back-to-back World Series titles. While neither was great long enough to warrant enshrinement in Cooperstown, they were great enough to be fondly remembered by Yankee fans for generations to come.

But perhaps chief amongst these lesser Yankee greats is Don Mattingly, who interestingly enough left the minor leagues for good in 1983, when Murcer retired and Mattingly was recalled to take his roster spot. Mattingly quickly established himself as a regular in the Yankee line up. After an impressive rookie campaign he came back in 1984 to lead the Majors in OPS+, win the AL batting title over teammate Dave Winfield, and lead the league in hits and in doubles for the first of three consecutive seasons.

That 1984 season would serve as springboard for Mattingly, the first of a six season stretch that saw Mattingly perpetually as one of the premier players in the game. He won the AL MVP in 1985, leading the league in RBI and total bases, and winning both the Silver Slugger and Gold Glove for the first of three consecutive seasons. He followed that in 1986 with perhaps his greatest single season, leading the Majors in hits, doubles, extra base hits, total bases, slugging, and OPS. He led the Majors OPS+ for the second time in three seasons, set franchise records with 238 hits and 53 doubles, and finished second to Roger Clemens in AL MVP voting. The left-hander even made three appearances, including two starts, at third base while Mike Pagliarulo was injured.

In 1987, Mattingly missed 21 games due to injury but still managed to post a .327/.378/.559 batting line with 30 HR. He also tied a Major League record by homering in eight consecutive games from July 8th through July 18th, and set a Major League record with six grand slams on the season. The following two years saw Mattingly slip a bit from the lofty standards he'd set over the previous years, but he still remained amongst the game's better players.

The bottom fell out for Mattingly in 1990. Long lingering back problems knocked him out of the line up for nearly two months, and he was largely ineffectual when playing, hitting just .256/.308/.335. Though just 29, Mattingly was virtually finished. He posted decent numbers for the remaining five years of his career, but they were a far cry from his glory days and not what one would want to see from a corner infielder on a contending team.

In the final season of his career, Mattingly reached the post-season at long last. Though the Yankees lost the five game series in heartbreaking fashion, Mattingly turned in a very impressive .417/.440/.708 batting line, including a memorable game tying home run in Game Two at Yankee Stadium.

Mattingly elected to sit out the 1996 season, despite interest from the Yankees and other clubs. While he initially planned to return in 1997, he didn't find any offers to his liking and decided that he didn't want to go through the rigors of another year in the Majors. He announced his retirement that January and his number was retired later that year. He also began serving as a Spring Training instructor that February and in the years that followed, eventually leading to role as hitting coach beginning in 2004. He was promoted to bench coach in 2007, presumably as the heir apparent to Joe Torre. But when Torre was fired following the season and Mattingly was passed over in favor of Joe Girardi for the manager's job, Donnie followed Torre to L.A. Torre has said he doesn't plan on managing beyond 2011, and Mattingly is considered to be the manager-in-waiting for the Dodgers.

Even after two years in Dodger blue it's still odd to see Mattingly in anything other than Yankee Pinstripes. Perhaps Donny Baseball will return to the Yankees as a manager someday. Part of me was relieved that Mattingly didn't get the job two years ago. He's one of the most beloved Yankees of all time; he had very little to gain and almost everything to lose by taking his first managerial job with a club that's expected to win the World Series each year. Whether or not Mattingly ever returns to the Bronx though, he'll always remain a Yankee.

24 Days Until Spring Training: Robinson Cano

Robinson Cano isn't young for a baseball player anymore. He seems like a bit of a fledgling in comparison to the rest of the established stars on the Yankees but he turned 27 last October and is now entering his physical prime. Cano is slated to make $9M in 2010, so he is becoming less of an automatic bargain and more of a good value contingent on good performance.

With the departures of Melky Cabrera and Chein-Ming Wang this offseason, Cano alone now bridges the gap of home grown talent between the old guard of Jeter, Rivera, Posada and Pettitte and the newer generation of Joba Chamberlain, Phil Hughes and Brett Gardner. He's the only outstanding hitting prospect the Yankees have developed and retained in recent years and provides elite production at an important defensive position.

Cano's abilities at second base are tough to quantify, as Joe from River Ave. Blue pointed out before last season began. He possesses the ability to make plays on balls that are hit outside of his zone, but is also prone to making sloppy mistakes on relatively easy opportunities. UZR rated Cano as slightly below average last season (-5.2) which is close to his career norm. Fortunately, Robby hits more than enough to make up for any deficiencies he might have in the field.

After a terrible year at the plate in 2008, Cano rebounded last season with a .370 wOBA, the second best mark of his career. He set new career highs in home runs (25), doubles (48) and ISO (.199) without adversely affecting his batting average (.320). He batted significantly better at Yankee Stadium than on the road, but hit a fairly balanced 14 of his homers in the Bronx.

Cano's only real flaw as a hitter is his lack of patience, an attribute which is exacerbated by the fact that he is near the top of the league in contact percentage - both inside and outside of the strike zone. He made contact with 77% of offerings outside of the zone in 2009, a number which has increased every year he's been in the league. The percentage of pitches out of the zone he offers at has remained close to 30%, meaning that he's either getting more selective, getting better at putting the bat on the ball or some combination of the two.

Robby is also near the top of the league in first strike percentage, despite the fact that he only swings at the first pitch of the at bat 34% of the time. It's easy to understand why Cano or the coaching staff might take this tact - he's already near the bottom of the league in pitches seen per plate appearance - but it appears that pitchers are a little too comfortable grooving a strike in there and putting Cano in an unfavorable count. Clearly opposing hurlers are trying to exploit this tendency and Cano could benefit by being more aggressive on the first pitch.

As has been the case throughout his career, Cano struggled with runners in scoring position in 2009. Mike from River Ave. Blues identified BABIP as a major culprit for the discrepancy but clearly there is something in his approach that keeps him from racking up more RBIs. Similarly, Cano didn't fare very well in the 2009 postseason either, hitting a paltry .193/.266/.281 surpassed in futility on the Yankees only by Nick Swisher. But all's well that ends well.

Cano is probably my favorite Yankee. During a time when the farm system wasn't turning out many prospects, Robby emerged to fill a position that the Yankees have had very few stars at over the course of their history. He has plenty of flaws as a player, some of which we didn't even discuss, but those make Cano who he is.

Why We're Lucky To Have Brian Cashman

Our GM discussing the current free agent market for outfielders (via LoHud):

“How long it’s taking certain people to wake up and smell the coffee, that’s what surprises me,” Cashman said. “When you get on the phone with agents, they tell you one thing, and certain agents (cough)ScottBoras(cough) can’t honestly believe what they’re trying to convey. Do they think I’m stupid?”

Okay, I added the italics. But I love the fact that there is someone in charge of the Yankees who can correctly gauge the market and sees through the bullshit. He doesn't rush or panic and is impervious to the games that agents try to play.

So to answer your question, Steve, yes I think Cashman "would be an effective and successful G.M. of a major league baseball team if he had a team payroll budget to work with that was in the range of $100 to $120 million (and no more than that)".

25 Days Until Spring Training: Mark Teixeira

There are 25 days until pitchers and catchers are due to report to George M. Steinbrenner Field in Tampa so we begin our countdown to Spring Training, as we did last year, with Mark Teixeira.

While Jason Giambi was a valuable player during his career with the Yankees, the franchise made a major upgrade by replacing him with Mark Teixiera last winter. Better both defensively and at the plate, the Maryland native and Georgia Tech alum started of the Pinstriped portion of his career on the right foot.

Teixeira cleaned up the postseason awards by finishing second in the MVP vote, and being awarded both the Gold Glove and Silver Slugger among American League first baseman. Depsite the accolades, Teixeira's first season in the Bronx didn't quite measure up to the two previous ones he split between in Texas, Atlanta and Anaheim. However, being shuttled between the AL and NL midseason prevented him from getting credit for his robust production in the award voting.

In both 2007 and 2008 he batted over .300 and got on base at better than a 40% clip but in 2009 he did neither - hitting .292/.383/.565 - but did record a slugging percentage 20 points above his career average. He tied for the AL lead in home runs with 39 and led the Yanks in slugging percentage and OPS (.948) but he by no means reached his ceiling last year.

Part of this can be attributed to an an awful April which put him in a hole that took until the end of May to climb out. However, even in that terrible month, he walked 17 times in 90 plate appearances and had a respectable on-base percentage of .367.

Teixiera's defense is well-regarded by fans, broadcasters and scouts alike, but it doesn't seem to show up in UZR. He posted a below average rating last season and his defense over the the previous three comes out to be almost exactly neutral. Tom Tango acknowledges that there is likely something that UZR might be missing about Teixeira's defense. What might that be? Well for one, infield line drives aren't counted by UZR, and those go a long way in determining who the best defensive first basemen are.

Teixiera hit for a higher batting average and on-base percentage from the right side of the plate while slugging better as a lefty in 2009, which could be attributed to playing half of his games in the Bronx if it wasn't a patten that has been evident over his entire career. Of course, Yankee Stadium probably enhanced those splits, as 24 of his 39 long balls were hit at home and his numbers were better there across the board.

Partially lost in the Yankees' World Series victory was the fact that Teixeira struggled during the postseason. He made some sparkling defensive plays including one that helped David Robertson wriggle out of an 11th inning jam in Game 2 of the ALDS which he followed with a game-winning home run in the bottom half of the inning. But his overall line was .182/.282/.311, walking only 6 times in 71 plate appearances.

Similar to his funk at the beginning of the season, Teixeira could have been rusty from all the days off that the Yanks had during the postseason. He's said in the past that batting from both sides of the plate makes it harder to find his rhytym. While many players didn't seem to mind it, the inactivity might mess with Teix's timing more than it does with other players'. He's a notoriously slow starter, so there is likely some truth to that notion.

Odds are, Teixeira will have many more Aprils and Octobers in Pinstripes to try to sort these problems out.

NFL Championship Weekend

Okay, I'm back. I guess that means I'm a masochist. Or maybe I want to improve my 3-5 record in predicting postseason games. Regardless, you're stuck with reading my analysis of Championship Weekend.

Hopefully this weekend will be better than the Wild Card and Divisional weekends. If not, this will probably be the worst NFL Playoffs ever. Unlike baseball, the football's playoffs are usually compelling even if your favorite team is out of it. This year, that hasn't been the case. The playoffs are also supposed to make it seem like Spring Training is tomorrow. Well, Spring Training starts in less than a month but that month seems like a fackin' eternity. Next week's Pro Bowl won't shorten it either. Anyway, here is my prediction of who will play in Tampa for Super Bowl XLIV:

New York Jets @ Indianapolis Colts, Sunday, 3PM EST, CBS: Last week at this time I would have been my house that the previous sentence would have read "San Diego Chargers @ Indianapolis Colts." Luckily I didn't and thus don't have to move back in with my parents.

This game features a rematch of Week 16. The week when the Colts stopped their pursuit of perfection and took out Peyton Manning and the rest of their offensive stars with 5:36 remaining in the 3rd Quarter. The week when the Colts let the Jets back into the playoff race.

The pressure is all on Peyton Manning, Jim Caldwell and the Colts. They need to win the Super Bowl to validate their lack of a perfect season. Hell, even winning the Super Bowl is considered a disappointment to some Indy fans. Imagine them losing the Super Bowl, or, God forbid, losing the AFC Championship? The Colts are already looking forward to the Super Bowl. According to star DE and Syracuse product Dwight Freeney, "Week 16 was in Week 16. This is the AFC Championship Game. If they want to use whatever happened in Week 16 to motivate them, so be it. For us, it's the AFC Championship Game now. One more game until the Super Bowl, and they are in our way, so we have to try to get something done."

Given that the Jets have reached this far with a rookie QB in Mark Sanchez, they are playing with house money. You know what they say about house money - there's nothing like it. Rex Ryan has remained as confident as ever this week. Ryan has stated that he would be "shocked" if Gang Green was not in the Super Bowl and that the Jets would have won the Week 16 matchup even if the Colts had not pulled out early.

How great would it be if the Jets bounced the Colts? Great for irony's sake and great for the Tri-State Region. Two ticker tape parades in a year would be awesome and help reestablish New York as the premier sports location in the United States. Will it happen? Not according to Vegas. Although I am not a Jets fan, I will be rooting for them.

How The Jets Can Win: Keep the pressure on Manning to foil the NFL's second-ranked passing attack and force them to rely on their 32nd ranked run offense. Limit Sanchez's pass attempts.

How the Colts Can Win: Stack the box against the Jets' #1 ranked run offense and force Sanchez to throw more than 20 times. Get the ball to Dallas Clark, Pierre Garcon and Austin Collie with regularity in order to avoid the Revis machine covering Reggie Wayne.

Prediction: The game is a defensive struggle. Manning throws for two scores while Thomas Jones runs two in for the J-E-T-S. The difference is a late 4th Quarter field goal by Matt Stover. The dual ticker tape parade will wait until next year with celebrations for the Yankees and Giants.

Colts: 20
Jets: 17

Minnesota Vikings at New Orleans Saints, Sunday, 6:30 EST, Fox.

#1 vs. #2. Brees vs. Favre.

Will this game be a shootout? Last weekend, the Vikings scored 35 points in their win over Dallas. The Saints bested this effort by scoring 45 points. However, both teams also played stout defense, with the Vikings giving up 6 points and the Saints giving up 14.

Favre looks to join Kurt Warner as a QB to lead two different teams to Super Bowls. Brees looks to reach his first.

Injury News: Minnesota Defensive tackle Kevin Williams and defensive end Ray Edwards missed their second straight practice on Thursday because of knee trouble. Percy Harvin, the Vikings' young talented receiver, also missed practice with a migraine. Kevin Williams will be needed to stop Reggie Bush, who was pivotal in the Saints' win over the Cardinals in the Divisional round. Harvin adds a dimension to the Vikings that most teams have difficulty with. New Orleans ranked 25th in the NFL in overall defense during the regular season.

How the Vikings Can Win: Favre continues not to commit turnovers. Reggie Bush is stopped at the line of scrimmage and avoid giving up the long pass from Brees.

How the Saints Can Win: They are able to pound the ball on the ground like they did last week against the Cardinals. Get the ball to Devery Henderson and Jeremy Shockey. Blitz and force Favre turnovers. Shut down Adrian Peterson like he has been the past 2 months.

Prediction: Favre throws one TD to Sidney Rice and another to Visanthe Shiancoe. Kicker Ryan Lomgwell adds another 3 for the Vikes. However, backed by the raucous Cajuns in the first ever NFC Championship at the Superdome, the Saints advance to their first ever Super Bowl by virtue of 2 TDs from Brees and another from Pierre Thomas and a FG from Garrett Hartley. Favre throws 2 INTs.

Saints: 24
Vikings: 17

Friday Morning Link Party

This has been by far the slowest week of the offseason around these parts with a slow drip of news and a heavy dose of manual labor keeping me away from my computer. Things will get better soon as we will be dusting off our Countdown to Spring Training via uniform number starting tomorrow morning and running every day through February 16th. The Yanks hurlers and backstops report on the 17th, giving us 26 days and counting until Spring Training begins.

For now, here are some links to propel you towards the weekend.

Our buddy Jason lays out an exhaustive rubric you can use to determine whether you are "new school" or "old school" in your tastes as a baseball fan. I'm somewhere in the middle because I have the most respect for the great players who aren't demonstrative but understand that amount of money that guys are making has changed a lot of aspects of the game.

Javier Vazquez told a Spanish language newspaper in his native Puerto Rico that he doesn't know how much longer he wants to play and might be willing to go year to year with his contracts a la Andy Pettitte. Or at least that's what I'm told. Me Espanol es muy mal. And before you go off the deep end like this guy about it, remember that Pettitte doesn't seem to have lost any of his "desire" over the past couple of years.

Minor league guru John Sickels has some very nice things to say about Jesus Montero. He released them in the hopes that they might get you to buy his book but that doesn't make them any less true. I hope.

The Royals signed Rick Ankiel for $3.25M with a $6M mutual option for next year. Stop it. It's not funny. Okay, it's pretty funny.

If you were wondering why Jason Bay didn't re-sign with the Red Sox, here's why.

Bruce Markusen from the Hardball Times (and Bronx Banter) lists off some of today's best baseball nicknames and then goes back in history position but position to find the all-time greats.

Patrick Sullivan at Baseball Analysts demonstrates to Murray Chass how someone's opinion can matter even if they don't have a Hall of Fame vote.

Beyond the Box Score is continuing their effort to honor the best in statistically-slanted baseball writing with the BtB Sabermetric Awards. There are seven categories to vote on which are sure to contain excellent pieces of analytical baseball thinking that you were not aware of.

Larry from Wezen-Ball earned himself a radio interview as a result of his widely acclaimed Charlie Brown baseball posts. His plot to take over the world continued yesterday with the official release of his iPhone/Android app.

In case you were wondering, Hideki Irabu still retired. For real this time.

And finally a bit of fun non-baseball reading. Joe Posnanski picks apart a bunch of infomercials for your entertainment.

We'll be back with more before the day is done.

Another Point Of View On Damon

Good morning Fackers. While the great left field/Johnny Damon debate rages on, it's a far cry from last year at this time when the pilot light had all but burned out on the Hot Stove. After a gluttonous pre-Christmas spending spree that saw the Yankees land CC Sabathia, A.J. Burnett, and Mark Teixeira, we were all fat and happy. There was some talk about whether Nick Swisher or Xavier Nady would be the right fielder, or whether Melky Cabrera or Brett Gardner would be the center fielder, but for the most part we were sitting around waiting for Spring Training to start.

The biggest topic of conversation at this time last year centered not around the team for the upcoming season, or even the previous season, but upon the manager that had departed the team more than a year prior. As news of Joe Torre's and Tom Verducci's The Yankee Years began making the rounds, much of the chatter centered on the dirt Torre dished on his twelve years as the Yankee manager. Inside stories that had previously not been discussed much, if at all, garnered newfound media attention. One such story was about Johnny Damon, and I was reminded of it yesterday.

In the morning, Bob Klapisch of The Record had a story suggesting that Damon might just retire if he doesn't receive a suitable contract offer. Klapisch cited "a friend of Damon" who said "Johnny is in complete family mode right now", implying that retirement is a real possibility. The Klapisch story inspired a score of other blog postings on the topic, and was later refuted by Dave O'Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution, who tweeted that a friend of Damon (presumably a different friend than the one Klapisch consulted) stated that Damon is not considering retirement.

I'm inclined to believe O'Brien's friend of Johnny, and think that whatever friend Klapisch spoke to (Jon Heyman maybe?) is just trying to apply what little leverage Scott Boras and Damon have left after grossly overestimating the market for his services. But if there is some validity to Klapisch's speculation it wouldn't be the first time Damon has considered retirement. And if we take The Yankees Years at face value, the results weren't very pretty the first time.

During the 2006-7 off-season, Damon allegedly did not work out at all. As he may be now, he was very much "in family mode", and reported to camp out of shape and somewhat disinterested in baseball. Early in camp he approached Brian Cashman and Torre, stating he was contemplating retirement. He left camp for a few days to ponder his future, but eventually returned. But his late start hampered him. It took him some time to round himself into shape, leading to nagging injuries and poor performance throughout the early part of the season.

Torre further speculated that Damon still wasn't completely committed to playing baseball, and The Yankee Years suggests that a disinterested Damon lost much of his characteristic enthusiasm in the clubhouse and on the field. It further states that Damon's performance and attitude drew the ire of several teammates, notably the "old guard", including one unnamed teammate who approached Torre "near tears" suggesting that Damon had to go for the good of the team.

I'm not suggesting that all of that is the gospel truth, but in general terms, I'm willing to believe it's mostly correct. Verducci has direct quotes from Damon about the situation at that time, and nothing in his statements denies out and out that this was an issue. Damon's current contract situation, or lack thereof, makes it something of a different kettle of fish this time around. But there is some precedent for an uncommitted Damon reporting to camp, and if The Yankee Years is to be believed, I don't think that's an experience the organization wants to relive.

Another thing to consider are comments made by Brian Cashman early in the off-season. Speaking in general terms about free agents, Cashman speculated that not only do players not want to take pay cuts, but that they're less likely to take them from their previous team. It's an easily understandable theory, and if correct, I imagine the potential is greater for such a player to be a malcontent when returning to his previous team than it is when joining a new team. Buster Olney speculated that such a thought process might have played a role in the Yankees' December negotiations with Damon.

None of this is meant to disparage Johnny Damon. I'm of the opinion that he would be helpful to the 2010 Yankees, and if Jerry Hairston's comments to Jim Bowden on XM last night are to be believed, the Yankees are still in on him. However, virtually all of the discussion regarding Damon and the Yankees has revolved around salary - and salary is likely the biggest issue on the table. But, if the recent past is any indication, when it comes to Damon there may be more issues to consider other than if there's enough loose change in the couch cushions to pay his salary.

Don't Worry About The Yanks, Ron

Good morning, Fackers. Whether the gap between the highest and lowest grossing teams in baseball is widening, narrowing or staying the say depends largely on where you stand. To wit, here is Ron Gardnehire talking about his Twins in relation to the Yankees:

"When you look at the Yankees, their lineup stretches seven and eight-deep of all-stars," said Gardenhire, who was speaking at the Quality Inn in Winona on Tuesday as part of the Twins' annual Winter Caravan. "We're getting closer to that now. You look at our lineup, and we're almost to the point now where we've got six or seven guys that are all-star-caliber people."

Last year, Minnesota had 5 players who got more than 350 plate appearances and had an OPS+ of 91 or lower. The Yankees, on the other hand, had 9 players with over 430 plate appearances and Melky Cabrera was the least potent, with a 99 OPS+. The Twins brought in shortstop J.J. Hardy (career OPS+ 95), but I don't think many would consider him "all-star-caliber" although he did sneak onto the NL roster in 2007.

How about pitching? The Yankees team ERA was a quarter of a run lower than the Twins' last year, and the Yanks also picked up Javier Vazquez, who would probably compete with Nick Blackburn for the top spot in Minnesota's rotation.

I know Gardenhire is in the business of being optimistic about his team, but it's pretty clear that the Yankees were a whole lot better than the Twins last year and the gap, if anything, is widening. The Yankees have just as many resources as they've always had and Brain Cashman has been deploying them awfully efficiently as of late.

Peter Gammons notes this fact in an article on MLB.com this morning when he says "general manager Brian Cashman has turned his club into an efficient organizational model that has depth running through the system".

Rob Neyer, riffing off that article from Gammons talks about "the plight of small market franchises" and explains that there aren't enough good markets to house all 30 MLB teams. But Minneapolis is one of those good markets. It has 3.5 million people - making it the 13th largest media market in the country - and they are moving into a new ballpark next year.

The important thing to note is that the Twins don't have the same problem that the Rays, Orioles or Blue Jays do. They don't need to close to gap between them and the Yankees. They play in a division that has 4 small to moderate payroll teams and one current big spender that's in the process of coming back down to earth (Detroit). They haven't had much success in the playoffs despite winning their division 5 times in the past 8 years, but that has more to do with luck that the disparity between them and the Yanks.

With Target Field set to open this April and the walleye-on-a-stick scheduled to hit the fry-o-lators shortly thereafter, the Twins are primed to continue their dominance of the AL Central. The new revenue will certainly help them compete with the likes of the Tigers, White Sox and the Indians, but they are going to have to put a huge chunk of that money into action if they are going to get discernibly "closer" to the Yankees. Locking up Joe Mauer long term would certainly be a good start.