Friday, December 18, 2009

The Return Of Nick The Stick

Good morning, Fackers. It appears as though the Yankees are close to signing Nick Johnson to a one year, $5.5M deal. Johnson can play exactly one position, first base, and since Mark Teixeira is as much of an everyday player as there is on the team, it looks like Johnson - health permitting - will be a more or less full time designated hitter. Apparently the Yanks weren't so intent on rotating the DH slot to their aging players after all.

With a career OBP of .402 (.426 over the last three years), Johnson is a powerful offensive asset who sees lots of pitches, has excellent strike zone discipline and hits left handed pitching well (.440 OBP against LHP last year) despite being left handed himself. Sticking a guy like that in the 2 hole - in front of Teixeira and A-Rod - is going to lead to a significant increase in RBI opportunities for those two. Nick the Stick's power has declined over the past three seasons (SLG .520, .431, .402), but it would be reasonable to assume that Yankee Stadium would help in that capacity.

The most obvious knock on Johnson is that he's injury prone, suffering ailments ranging from stress fractures in his hand to a fractured cheek bone to a broken femur to back problems to torn ligaments in his wrist. As a result, he has appeared in an average of only 93 games over the past 8 years (including the 2007 season, which he missed entirely). Conventional wisdom says that stashing him away at DH would help prevent injuries, but that's far from a guarantee.

It would have been nice to bring Johnny Damon back but that seems very unlikely if the deal for Johnson goes through. He was asking the Yankees for twice as much money as Johnson over a contract three times as long. Sure, the fact that Damon is able to play the outfield would have increased the flexibility of the roster, but if other players really need a day off, there isn't a good reason that Joe Girardi can't just give Johnson a rest.

As far as Hideki Matsui goes, I think Johnson is a better fit for the Yankees offense. Granted, they both provide next to nothing defensively, but at the plate, they are very similar. Johnson has a career wOBA of .371 and was at .373 last year. Those numbers for Matsui are .367 and .378, respectively. However, Matsui's numbers are predicated on power (which is volatile) while Johnson relies on the more stable on OBP.

I'd rather have someone with a gaudy OBP who A-Rod and Teix will continually have the opportunity to drive in than another, lesser power hitter behind them. Both Matsui and Johnson are injury prone, but the former suffers from chronic knee injuries that are only getting worse while Johnson seems to have been afflicted with more random and flukey ailments.

For what it's worth, Johnson was $1M cheaper than Matsui and it might have been more. As Brian Cashman noted in reference to Bobby Abreu, a player is less likely to take a pay cut from their former employer than from another team.

I don't want to hear about the money that Matsui makes for the organization over in Japan, because that's the team's problem, not the fans'. Who cares how popular the Yankees on the opposite side of the world? We don't benefit from the money they make over there. The fact that Matsui has performed well in the postseason is great, but there's no guarantee that he'll repeat that performance next time around.

Overall, I like this move for the Yankees. It carries limited risk and if Johnson can grind out his usual production for 500 or so plate appearances, he will be a tremendous asset to the line up.

9 comments:

  1. As the founder of the "I Fucking Hate Hideki Matsui" fan club, I concur that not resigning Matsui was the right move.

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  2. good writeup but i disagree with on thing you said - we do benefit from the money the yankees make in japan because they use it to buy better talent here in america

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  3. Thanks Chandan.

    Do they use that money, though? The Yankees take in a mind blowing amount of money in revenue as it is and even if you think that Matsui nets them an extra $10 or $15 million, that isn't going to be spent on other players.

    The Yankees already operate at a huge surplus and seem to have a pretty good idea of what their budget is going to be. Even if they assumed they were going to earn that money, they would just stick it in their coffers, not increase their budget another $10-15M.

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  4. WHO IS GOING TO BE BETTER IN THE CLUTCH
    GAME WINNING HITS
    WE WILL WATCH MATSUI AND JOHNSON AND FIND OUT
    YANKEE POWER NUMBERS LIKELY TO FALL
    MAYBE YANKEES PLAY MORE SMALL BALL
    RATTLE THE CHAMPIONSHIP CHEMISTRY
    OUR DH WILL BAT 2AND?

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  5. I'm excited! When the Nationals (my NL team) traded him mid-season I was so sad because he was the last Yankee (they had Boone and Soriano). Now I can see him play again for my real team!

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  6. "RATTLE THE CHAMPIONSHIP CHEMISTRY"

    I'm still mad that they got rid of John Wetteland after the 1996 World Series. That really screwed the Yankees over. Wait...

    Also, you used "clutch," you are automatically disqualified.

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  7. Here is a microcosm of why I hate Hideki Matsui.

    http://www.mokers.org/blog/images/2008/03/sports/matsui-wife-married.jpg

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  8. Will - you're going to get us accused of anti-Asian sentiment again

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  9. The Yankees only make money via Matsui on the sponsorship deals within the stadium. All broadcasts and merchandise bought international are spread evenly throughout the league. With that I don't think they will lose any money because they should be able to replenish those sponsorships with other deals.

    If it was the case ($10 - $15 million of extra revenue) then signing Matsui would have been a no brainer at $10 - $15 million.

    Regardless, I would have preferred Matsui over Nicky J. The OBP is wonderful. But the 8 home runs last year is piss poor.

    I guess the question is do you prefer Matsui & Damon or Granderson and Nicky J?

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